In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 288” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the current situation in AFRIN depicts how the dominant personal, financial and political interests will hammer the underdog until they submit, unless the underdog has the physical, mental and spiritual fortitude to withstand the barrage of attacks, until a turning point occurs whereby all reasonable means of attack have been fully exhausted with the entire landscape destroyed but the underdog still standing strong, at which point in time the underdog will actually gain the upper hand as the dominant attacker realizes that the underdog does not have to win but only has to insure they do not lose, as to the extent the underdog is able to hold their ground, there will come a turning point in time when the dominant attacker backs down as they realize that they cannot defeat the spirit of the warrior whereby when the mind says stop, the heart says to death of one and all to go.
TURKEY News
As a friendly reminder, TURKEY has been on the defense ever since an internal military “Coup D’État” failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP focused their attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say that the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants.
During the week ending on Sunday, March 4, 2018, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures although TURKEY’s crushing of the free press, destruction of the freedom of speech and restrictions to the right to peaceful demonstrations seems to be punishing the TURKISH economy as high inflation in TURKEY and a surge in foreign borrowing by TURKISH banks could plunge TURKEY into an economic crisis as soon as 2018. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKEY hammered the KURDS in AFRIN as KURDISH families hid in their basements to seek shelter, huddled on blankets in dimly lit caves, hid in the rubble of bombed-out buildings and others gathered around campfires as TURKEY’s military offensive in SYRIA against the U.S. backed KURDISH militias has driven civilians underground. The fighting that has resulted in relentless airstrikes has displaced an estimated 16,000 people as shelling has resulted in AFRIN streets laying deserted with crumpled cars, debris and gaping holes where shops once stood. However, this week TURKEY continued with their siege of AFRIN although the TURKISH advance has been slow while focusing on taking the borders of AFRIN with air strikes every day while the AFRIN city itself seems to only be hit once or twice a week with artillery. Nonetheless, since the launch of the operation on AFRIN by TURKEY on January 20, TURKISH military and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) have liberated 116 locations including one center of a district, 88 villages, 20 strategic mountains and hills and one KURDISH base.
TURKEY reiterated this week that the operation aims to establish security and stability along TURKEY’s borders as well as protecting SYRIANS from so called KURDISH terrorist cruelty and oppression. Furthermore, TURKEY clarified that the operation is being carried out under the framework of TURKEY’s rights based on international law, UN Security Council resolutions, TURKEY’s self-defence rights under the UN charter and respect for SYRIA’s territorial integrity. Ironically, the U.S. had decided that the same KURDISH YPG were the ground force they had been looking for in SYRIA to fight ISIS such that the KURDISH YPG, backed by the firing power of the U.S. led air force defeated ISIS and ultimately captured RAQQA, its de facto SYRIAN capital. As a friendly reminder, this enraged TURKEY that denounced the SYRIAN KURDISH mini-state as being the SYRIAN wing of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) which the TURKISH army has been battling since 1984 on the basis that the PKK is a terrorist organization. In regards to the SYRIAN government sending a force of militia into AFRIN to oppose the TURKISH backed forces, their number was small and the action was more symbolic in nature but it does not seem that this will result in a wider agreement between the SYRIAN government and its KURDISH minority which would be a major development for peace to be restored in SYRIA.
IRAQ News
As a friendly reminder, IRAQI and ALLIED forces have pushed ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces first liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety subsequent to ALLIANCE forces seizing complete control of western MOSUL from ISIS. It is important to note that IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS to the point of ISIS relinquishing control of MOSUL as the world watched the scenes of jubilation as IRAQI forces liberated the OLD MOSUL City from ISIS. However, with 40,000 plus dead in the battle to take back OLD MOSUL City from ISIS, the scale of civilian casualties reveals a massacre with many bodies still buried under the rubble and the level of human suffering immense. However, many ISIS militias have taken to the hills and began to wage a classic rural guerrilla war, while some ISIS sleeper cells have also been activated at the border of Baghdad, the IRAQI capital. Thus, ISIS has now returned to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group as the Islamic State of IRAQ and SYRIA can no longer call itself a state as ISIS has lost all capacity to act as a state but rather ISIS now stands exposed as a GANGSTER sham.
On the heels of the IRAQI military victory in MOSUL, IRAQI forces broke through ISIS’s defences inside the northern city of TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL-QAIM as IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared victory over ISIS. In addition, IRAQI pro-government forces completed their long awaited operation to completely destroy ISIS’s caliphate in IRAQ with their campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants. In particular, IRAQI forces recaptured the last bastion of ISIS in IRAQ as soldiers, police, Sunni tribesmen and mostly Shia paramilitary fighters took part in the assault on RAWA in the Euphrates river valley close to the border with SYRIA. Meanwhile this week, a TURKISH woman was sentenced to death and 11 other foreign widows to life in prison by an IRAQI court for their involvement with ISIS. The twelve women consisting of 11 TURKS and one AZERI, some of which appeared at the IRAQI court nursing infants, were convicted despite pleas that they had been tricked or forced by their ISIS husbands to join them in IRAQ. The women, aged between twenty and fifty, were all arrested in MOSUL or TAL AFAR, where their husbands were killed as IRAQI forces recaptured the northern cities from ISIS last year.
As a friendly reminder, the KURDS still consider the September 25 referendum victory as the culmination of decades of struggle for a KURDISH state of their own although the IRAQI government has clearly stated that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. However, after the votes were tallied and the referendum passed with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, Iraq’s top SHIITE cleric out right rejected the outcome of KURDISTAN’s independence vote despite the overwhelming 92% voting in favour of separating from IRAQ. Subsequently, IRAQI forces along with IRANIAN trained paramilitaries deployed heavy weaponry build up in KIRKUK, the jewel of the proposed future KURDISTAN state enabling IRAQI forces to take control of all major areas of KIRKUK province from KURDISH YPG fighters. In particular, IRAQI forces took ALTON KUPRI, the oil-rich province of KURDISTAN as rocket; artillery and heavy machine-gun fire erupted in the region.
Subsequently, IRAQI Kurdish authorities stated that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession. However, the KURDS also stated that this decision must become a basis for starting an inclusive national dialogue between KURDISTAN and IRAQ to resolve all disputes through implementation of all constitutional articles and in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution because all elements of the IRAQI Constitution must be respected in order to secure the unity of IRAQ. Meanwhile, this week, KURDISH Members Of Parliament (MP’s) stated that most demands were not met in the boycotted budget bill including of particular importance, the KURDISH YPG salaries. The three heads of government consisting of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, President Fuad Masum and Speaker of Parliament Salim al-Jabouri will continue to discuss the budget bill and other issues with closed-door meetings in an effort to resolve the impasse. Although some progress has been made consisting of two main changes made to the bill consisting of referring to Kurdistan Region as such and not the province of Kurdistan and a budget allocated for KURDISH YPG forces operational needs but not for their salaries, the two sides continue with the fundamental disputes over KURDISH YPG salaries and KURDISH share of profits in the KIRKUK oil fields.
SYRIA News
As a friendly reminder, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH have made remarkable progress in the DEIR AL-ZOR region over the last several months liberating most of the province that was previously occupied by ISIS. Most recently, SAA units have made their way across several kilometers of territory south of the provincial capital of DEIR AL-ZOR striking ISIS in AL-MAYADEEN, ISIS’s new de facto capital in SYRIA. Therefore, the Russian Defence Ministry now estimates that the ISIS terrorist group controls less than five per cent of SYRIA after losing large swathes of territory to the SDF opposition fighters; the U.S. led coalition, the SAA and Russian allied forces. However, ISIS still controls several towns along the eastern and western banks of the EUPHRATES River. Among the occupied areas still under ISIS control are a group of towns that are located along the EUPHRATES River Valley including AL-ASHARAH, ABU HAMMAM, HAJEEN, AL-JALA and SOUSAH. However, the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declared that they have completely wiped out ISIS in Syria.
Meanwhile, this week, TURKISH artillery continued to fire into SYRIA’s AFRIN region using air power, artillery and ground troops that has alarmed the U.S. that has supported the KURDISH YPG in fighting against ISIS in northern Syria. Meanwhile, IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani, a staunch ally of the SYRIAN regime, has denounced the TURKISH invasion of AFRIN stating that any foreign intervention needs authorization from the SYRIAN regime. Meanwhile, the SYRIAN militias entering AFRIN are believed to be IRANIAN trained such that their presence would put IRANIAN proxies on the border with TURKEY and strengthen IRAN’s foothold in the area. However, this week TURKISH warplanes attacked pro-SYRIAN government forces, killing at least 17 people in a village in the north of the AFRIN region in north-western SYRIA consisting of three members of the KURDISH YPG forces while the remaining 14 came from the IRANIAN trained militias that support President Bashar al-Assad who entered AFRIN last week to help repel a TURKISH offensive. However, TURKEY is also experiencing casualties from its Olive Branch Operation on AFRIN with at least ten TURKISH soldiers killed and another fifteen plus injured in clashes with several said to be in a critical condition. It is important to note that neither side has released much information about fatalities in AFRIN making the death toll difficult to determine with certainty other than casualties are mounting on both sides. However, what does seem to be certain is that thousands of civilians in AFRIN have fled their homes since Turkey’s offensive began with at least 150 innocent civilians killed in the crossfire.
As a friendly reminder, after U.S. backed fighters had surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA, they finally managed to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. Fighters of the U.S. backed, KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) punched their way through ISIS lines in RAQQA city as KURDISH forces literally shot their way through the streets of RAQQA, concentrating fire on ISIS positions hidden in the urban ruin of RAQQA city while ISIS fought back hard. Meanwhile, witnesses of the aftermath of the battle for RAQQA duly noted that the victory celebrations by KURDISH forces felt muted as there were literally no civilians left in RAQQA such that it was the celebration of the liberation of a ghost town. However, Syrians hoping to return home to RAQQA now that RAQQA has been liberated from ISIS are being told to wait indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby some have already taken their toll in terms of human casualties.
Nonetheless, the current SYRIAN government under the control of President Bashar al-Assad stated that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA, which was liberated from ISIS by the U.S. backed and KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In particular, the existing SYRIAN regime stated that both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime. Meanwhile, more than 100 people have been killed this week in the besieged SYRIAN enclave of EASTERN GHOUTA since the UN Security Council unanimously called for a month-long ceasefire.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the KURDS as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis.
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKEY hammered the KURDS in AFRIN as TURKEY’s military offensive in SYRIA against the U.S. backed KURDISH militias has driven civilians underground in what from the KURDISH perspective appears to be a massacre. In my opinion, TURKEY continued this week with their siege of AFRIN as the TURKISH army and associated Free Syrian Army (FSA) militias try to fight their ways into urban areas while suffering heavy casualties at the hands of the resilient KURDISH YPG. Unfortunately, in my opinion, the lesson of the many sieges in the wars in SYRIA and IRAQ is that bombers and artillery end up destroying almost everything in order to clear the way for their infantry. Therefore, in my opinion, the outlook for AFRIN that has thus far survived the seven-year war in SYRIA untouched, looks like it will be heading down the path of complete and utter destruction.
In my opinion, the TURKISH attack on the KURDISH enclave of AFRIN is likely to have the same devastating outcome as the SYRIAN army siege of EASTERN GHOUTA by destroying everything while contemporaneously failing to capture the area as the KURDISH YPG have demonstrated throughout the war against ISIS, that they are resilient. Given TURKEY’s aggressive stance, it seems that it is inevitable that AFRIN will come under siege like EASTERN GHOUTA where hundreds of thousands of civilians have been left without food or humanitarian aid as AFRIN has a single supply line controlled by the SYRIAN government that TURKEY could block at any moment as part of their siege. In my opinion, there is a lot more fighting to come as I believe that the KURDISH YPG paramilitary forces will fight to the end for AFRIN city and will never surrender while given the dedication and battle experience of its KURDISH fighters who have been fighting ISIS since 2015, a prolonged and bloody siege of AFRIN is in prospect. This situation in AFRIN demonstrates the new geopolitical realities whereby the dominant personal, financial and political interests will hammer the underdog until they submit, unless the underdog has the physical, mental and spiritual fortitude to withstand the barrage of attacks, until a turning point occurs whereby all reasonable means of attack have been fully exhausted with the entire landscape destroyed but the underdog still standing strong, at which point in time the underdog will actually gain the upper hand as the dominant attacker realizes that the underdog does not have to win but only has to insure they do not lose, as to the extent the underdog is able to hold their ground, there will come a turning point in time when the dominant attacker backs down as they realize that they cannot defeat the spirit of the warrior whereby when the mind says stop, the heart says to death of one and all to go. Meanwhile, in my opinion, if the only option the KURDISH YPG has to repel the TURKISH attack on AFRIN are the SYRIAN militias who are believed to be IRANIAN trained, so be it, as long as they can get the job done to stave off TURKEY’s attempts at an invasion. In my opinion, although the IRANIAN trained militia sent to assist the KURDS in AFRIN are relatively small in stature, they are professionally trained such that they will only help the KURDISH cause in AFRIN.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after over one year of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power.
Now that the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly transferred from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred to as TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL-QAIM in a lightening fast military offensive. In regards to the IRAQI forces campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants, Western ANBAR is the last region in IRAQ where ISIS held extensive stretches of territories. It is important to note that Iraqi government forces have now driven ISIS out of about 95% of the land ISIS once held in IRAQ and freed more than 4.4 million IRAQIS from ISIS rule. In my opinion, RAWA and the nearby Syrian border town of ALBU KAMAL are of strategic importance to ISIS as the group used routes through these locations to transfer fighters, weapons and goods. Therefore, the towns are also symbolically important because they made up ISIS’s self-declared, cross-border EUPHRATES PROVINCE that was a symbol of ISIS’s intention to eradicate all of the region’s borders between IRAQ and SYRIA. Therefore, since MOSUL was declared free, IRAQI security forces continue to comb western MOSUL areas for hidden ISIS cells despite the victory over ISIS as ISIS is still considered to be a significant security threat even after ISIS’s defeat at its main havens across IRAQI provinces. Therefore, KURDISH and IRAQI forces still need to be vigilant for ISIS reunions to launch attacks through small covert groups of suicide attackers. In my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Hider al-Abadi’s announcement of full liberation of IRAQI lands with an official declaration of an end of the war against ISIS is accurate in theory but not in practice as significant ISIS fighters are still hiding underground like rats. In my opinion, this week’s conviction of one TURKISH woman to death and 11 other foreign widows to life in prison by an IRAQI court for their involvement with ISIS seems to be quite harsh from my point-of-view. That is, the women were found guilty under Article 4 of IRAQ’s anti-terrorism law against any person who commits, incites, plans, finances or assists in acts of terrorism and for any illegal entry into the country. In my opinion, the women’s’ lawyers arguments that the women had all been tricked into coming to IRAQ and were not involved in any acts of violence should have warranted more lenient sentences but it seems that the IRAQI justice system wanted to set the example that ISIS wives are as guilty as ISIS fighters by mere association.
However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
As a friendly reminder, it is still my opinion that after the IRAQI KURDS referendum on independence on September 25, 2017, the IRAQI KURDS still have the right to pursue their independence pursuant to the majority win by the KURDS with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, albeit the fact that the IRAQI government claims that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. In my opinion, the IRAQI KURDS still need to negotiate with the IRAQI government to respect the IRAQI constitution such that although the KURDISH vote was a clear indication of majority support for separation, the September 25 referendum only serves a symbolic victory thus far, as it cannot be supported legally without further negotiations with the IRAQI government. It is important to note that although KURDISH leaders were willing to use the referendum results as an opening bid in negotiations with IRAQ over expanded autonomy, federal forces responded by retaking KIRKUK and other disputed areas outside the KURDS’ autonomous region with limited bloodshed as most KURDISH forces withdrew without a fight although scattered clashes did break out.
However, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. In my opinion, this week’s KURDISH Members Of Parliament (MP’s) stating that most demands were not met in the boycotted budget bill including of particular importance, the KURDISH YPG salaries and share of profits in the KIRKUK oil fields is not surprising as the IRAQI government seems to be looking for the upper hand in negotiations. In my opinion, the KURDISH governments’ demands that the IRAQI government allocate 17% of the IRAQI budget as had been the case since the new IRAQI government was formed after the U.S. led invasion is reasonable. IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has insisted that the KURDISH share should be less, in proportion to the KURDISH population, that the IRAQI government estimates to be at 12.6%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stated that the proposed amount is not enough to cover the needs of the KURDISTAN Region in 2018. In my opinion, the IRAQI government cut the KURDISH share of the budget in early 2014 because of KURDISTAN’s plans to export oil to the international markets independent of IRAQ which is no longer the case such that the budget cut has caused an ongoing financial crisis that further worsened after the KURDISTAN Region lost control of the KIRKUK oil fields to IRAQI forces in October. In my opinion, the 17% demand by the KURDISH government is reasonable as at least 17% of IRAQI soil is covered with KURDISH blood such that the KURDS earned their 17% share through blood, sweat and tears as the KURDISH forces held back ISIS forces from conquering IRAQ in its entirety while IRAQI forces were scrambling and nowhere to be seen.
In my opinion, these are challenging times for the KURDISH region such that KURDISH frustrations are understandable but the KURDISH extremist violence is never acceptable so that the KURDS need to conduct their protests peacefully. In my opinion, the KURDISH government has exercised commendable restraint to avoid a full fledge civil war bloodbath with recent concessions made by the KURDISH government to the IRAQI government that clearly demonstrates that the KURDS desire to reach a peaceful negotiated settlement to this conflict. Therefore, I am now convinced more than ever that constructive dialogue can begin between the KURDISH and IRAQI governments that will result in a peaceful long-term sustainable solution.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, it finally does appear that ISIS has been defeated in DEIR AL-ZOR, AL-MAYADEEN and AL-BUKAMAL albeit violent clashes that sporadically continue to erupt around the town as ISIS finds itself trapped like rats underground only to be swept to the surface as the SAA goes through their respective sweeping operations across the outskirts of town. However, with the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declaring that they have completely wiped out ISIS in SYRIA, I expect that the remaining ISIS militants will be hiding in small towns and villages along the border with IRAQ in the SYRIAN dessert such that the remaining portion of no mans land along the Middle Euphrates River Valley will most likely represent ISIS’s last stand. In my opinion, ISIS still controls thousands of square kilometres of desert in the DEIR AL-ZOR, HOMS, IDLIB and DARAA regions such that although ISIS has been forced out of major SYRIAN cities, ISIS is still able to stage attacks on SAA and other rebel forces from these desert areas such that victory may have been achieved albeit ISIS still existing as a thorn in everybodies sides.
However, this week, I was surprised to see TURKISH artillery continuing to fire into SYRIA’s AFRIN region out of pure infuriation over the announcement of U.S. plans to train a 30,000 border force in the area of northern SYRIA where KURDISH YPG dominated forces drove out ISIS fighters last year while TURKEY now promises to strangle the KURDISH terrorist force before it is ever able to come into existence. Meanwhile, in my opinion, if the only option the KURDISH YPG has to repel the TURKISH attack on AFRIN are the SYRIAN militias who are believed to be IRANIAN trained, so be it, as long as they can get the job done to stave off TURKEY’s attempts at an invasion. In my opinion, the SYRIANS need to regain control of their own country and decide on their own future in unison such that a united stand between the SYRIAN Regime and the KURDISH YPG will force TURKEY to stand down and come back to the negotiating table on behalf of the FSA to once and for all put an end to this insane bloodbath. In regards to TURKISH warplanes attacking pro-SYRIAN government forces in AFRIN, killing at least 17 people consisting of three members of the KURDISH YPG forces and 14 from the IRANIAN trained militias who entered AFRIN last week to help repel the TURKISH offensive, they did not die in vain. In my opinion, AFRIN represents the symbol of a once again unified SYRIA without the interference of external parties waging a proxy war on SYRIAN territory such that I believe the SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad needs to send in additional reinforcements to AFRIN to send the message to TURKEY and the rest of the world that the SYRIAN borders will not be compromised by any external force be it the TURKS or anyone else for that matter and that the territorial integrity of SYRIA will emerge unified after this war. However, in my opinion, in order to end this war once and for all, President Bashar al-Assad also needs to extend an olive branch to TURKEY in exchange for TURKEY backing down from its operation in northern SYRIA entitled Olive Branch by agreeing to recognize the legitimacy of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) political members to assume their respective share of power in a new, reformed and reorganized SYRIA.
In regards to the Syrian city of RAQQA, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires. In my opinion, now in its seventh year, the war in SYRIA has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society.
Nonetheless, this week, it was sad to see the war in SYRIA entering into a dangerous new phase as EASTERN GHOUTA under attack by SYRIAN Regime forces on so-called SYRIAN rebel terrorists is a human tragedy that is unfolding before everybodies eyes such that in my opinion the international community cannot let things keep going in this horrendous fashion. In my opinion, an end to the fighting would allow the evacuation of hundreds of people who require urgent treatment as well as allowing humanitarian aid to reach the region. In my opinion, the death toll of over one hundred since last Saturday highlights the paralysis of an international community that has finally demanded a one month ceasefire and the delivery of humanitarian aid as the continuing violence now raises further doubts over the sincerity of RUSSIA, the SYRIAN regime’s main ally, who had ordered daily five-hour truces and the opening of humanitarian corridors for fleeing civilians. From my point of view, in some of the worst bombardment campaigns of the war in SYRIA, over five hundred people have been killed and over four thousand have been injured in EASTERN GHOUTA, a Free Syrian Army (FSA) held enclave that is home to about 400,000 people that borders the SYRIAN capital of Damascus.
In my opinion, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, as ISIS literally disappears from the face of the map in SYRIA, the question has become whether a race to conquer the oil rich regions could result in a showdown between the international coalitions consisting of the U.S. and SDF forces on the one side and the RUSSIAN and SAA forces on the other and/ or TURKEY on the one hand and KURDISH YPG and SAA forces on the other. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS such that this war could very well continue for years to come if RUSSIA is not given mediator powers to negotiate a deal between all Parties. In my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and madness.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 288” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the current situation in AFRIN depicts how the dominant personal, financial and political interests will hammer the underdog until they submit, unless the underdog has the physical, mental and spiritual fortitude to withstand the barrage of attacks, until a turning point occurs whereby all reasonable means of attack have been fully exhausted with the entire landscape destroyed but the underdog still standing strong, at which point in time the underdog will actually gain the upper hand as the dominant attacker realizes that the underdog does not have to win but only has to insure they do not lose, as to the extent the underdog is able to hold their ground, there will come a turning point in time when the dominant attacker backs down as they realize that they cannot defeat the spirit of the warrior whereby when the mind says stop, the heart says to death of one and all to go.
http://www.therockswebmarket.com/world-peace-lennon-ivan-style-part-288
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