World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 290

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 290” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the current situation in AFRIN depicts how the TURKISH stance against the KURDISH YPG is predicated on innate hatred triggering TURKEY’s current all or nothing position against the KURDISH YPG factions, built up over prolonged years of irreconcilable differences regarding an independent KURDISTAN, such that the only current viable solution from TURKEY’s point of view is the complete and utter destruction of the KURDISH YPG forces, while the KURDISH YPG forces from the outset were ready, willing and able to enter into negotiations with TURKEY via their U.S. allies from the war against ISIS, that was shattered with sheer brut TURKISH military force as TURKEY is unable to put its past differences aside with the KURDISH YPG to develop some sort of more logical, rational and coherent long-term solution for peace but rather TURKEY prefers to exercise its dominant authoritarian power under the principal that TURKEY will conquer first and negotiate thereafter if necessary.

TURKEY News

As a friendly reminder, TURKEY has been on the defense ever since an internal military “Coup D’État” failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP focused their attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say that the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants.
 
During the week ending on Sunday, March 18, 2018, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures although TURKEY’s crushing of the free press, destruction of the freedom of speech and restrictions to the right to peaceful demonstrations seems to be punishing the TURKISH economy as high inflation in TURKEY and a surge in foreign borrowing by TURKISH banks could plunge TURKEY into an economic crisis as soon as 2018. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKEY hammered the KURDS in AFRIN as KURDISH families hid in their basements to seek shelter, huddled on blankets in dimly lit caves, hid in the rubble of bombed-out buildings and others gathered around campfires as TURKEY’s military offensive in SYRIA against the U.S. backed KURDISH militias has driven civilians underground. The fighting that has resulted in relentless airstrikes has displaced an estimated 16,000 people as shelling has resulted in AFRIN streets laying deserted with crumpled cars, debris and gaping holes where shops once stood. However, this week TURKEY continued with their siege of AFRIN as TURKISH forces and their Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel allies continued with their relentless barrage of attacks as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan slammed the European Parliament’s motion calling on TURKEY to withdraw from SYRIA’s AFRIN district while promising that TURKISH troops will continue the operation in AFRIN until the mission is completed. It is important to note that the European Parliament’s motion focused TURKEY’s attention on the civilian casualties stating that many civilians have been killed thus far during TURKEY’s Operation Olive Branch and stressing that the current TURKISH operations could hamper efforts to find a political settlement to the war in SYRIA.
 
TURKEY not only ignored the request from the European Parliament but also completely cut-off the supply of water and bread to AFRIN as TURKISH forces and their Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel allies have completely surrounded the KURDISH dominated city in preparation for a major ground assault on AFRIN. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is adamant that TURKEY and their Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel allies will clear AFRIN of ALL KURDISH YPG fighters and has even gone so far as to state that TURKEY will also clear MANBIJ and the remaining territory to the east of the Euphrates River to TURKEY’s border with northern IRAQ. However, the U.S. has about 2,000 soldiers based in MANBIJ, about 100 km east of AFRIN, who supported the KURDISH YPG in the war against ISIS such that although President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has urged the U.S. to pull out of the area, U.S. military officers say they have no intention of doing so. Furthermore, TURKEY focused on blasting the European Parliament, the U.S. and everybody else standing in the way of TURKEY completing its military offensive on AFRIN with TURKEY’s minister for E.U. affairs, Omer Celik, stating that the latest decision is the most visionless decision the European Parliament has taken in recent years by requesting TURKEY to withdraw its troops from AFRIN and reflects a clear support by the E.U. for the KURDISH YPG factions that from TURKEY’s point of view are a terrorist organization. TURKEY’s minister for E.U. affairs, Omer Celik, also clearly told the European Parliament that they have no say in this matter such that whatever the European Parliament says on this issue will go through one ear and out the other. However, the E.U. also depends on TURKEY, which has NATO’s second-biggest army, for support in the security field and for helping to restrict the westward flow of migrants from the Middle East such that the E.U. seems to have its hands tied by TURKEY as concerns the current situation in AFRIN.
 
IRAQ News
 
As a friendly reminder, IRAQI and ALLIED forces have pushed ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces first liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety subsequent to ALLIANCE forces seizing complete control of western MOSUL from ISIS. It is important to note that IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS to the point of ISIS relinquishing control of MOSUL as the world watched the scenes of jubilation as IRAQI forces liberated the OLD MOSUL City from ISIS. However, with 40,000 plus dead in the battle to take back OLD MOSUL City from ISIS, the scale of civilian casualties reveals a massacre with many bodies still buried under the rubble and the level of human suffering immense. However, many ISIS militias have taken to the hills and began to wage a classic rural guerrilla war, while some ISIS sleeper cells have also been activated at the border of Baghdad, the IRAQI capital. Thus, ISIS has now returned to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group as the Islamic State of IRAQ and SYRIA can no longer call itself a state as ISIS has lost all capacity to act as a state but rather ISIS now stands exposed as a GANGSTER sham.
 
Meanwhile this week, IRAQI troops killed seven ISIS terrorists and seized a large cache of explosives and weapons in different parts in western IRAQ as part of a military operation to hunt for ISIS militants hiding in desert areas. Furthermore, the U.S. led international coalition warplanes destroyed a tunnel that was used by ISIS militants in western IRAQ. However, ISIS also struck back in eastern IRAQ as ISIS extremists launched two separate attacks on IRAQI security forces in DIYALA and SALAHUDDIN, killing seven security members and wounding three others. This attack by ISIS reflects the second ambush by ISIS extremists in the past two weeks in the same area as in another separate incident, ISIS extremists attacked IRAQI forces in TEL AL-DHAHAB village killing two soldiers and wounding three others.
 
As a friendly reminder, the KURDS still consider the September 25 referendum victory as the culmination of decades of struggle for a KURDISH state of their own although the IRAQI government has clearly stated that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. However, after the votes were tallied and the referendum passed with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, Iraq’s top SHIITE cleric out right rejected the outcome of KURDISTAN’s independence vote despite the overwhelming 92% voting in favour of separating from IRAQ. Subsequently, IRAQI forces along with IRANIAN trained paramilitaries deployed heavy weaponry build up in KIRKUK, the jewel of the proposed future KURDISTAN state enabling IRAQI forces to take control of all major areas of KIRKUK province from KURDISH YPG fighters. In particular, IRAQI forces took ALTON KUPRI, the oil-rich province of KURDISTAN as rocket; artillery and heavy machine-gun fire erupted in the region.
 
Subsequently, IRAQI Kurdish authorities stated that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession. However, the KURDS also stated that this decision must become a basis for starting an inclusive national dialogue between KURDISTAN and IRAQ to resolve all disputes through implementation of all constitutional articles and in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution because all elements of the IRAQI Constitution must be respected in order to secure the unity of IRAQ. Meanwhile, this week, KURDISH politicians continued to boycott IRAQI parliament with relentless protests at the reduction of KURDISTAN’s share from 17% to nearly 12% of the IRAQI parliament approved 2018 budget. Further, highlighting the division was IRAQ accusing KURDISTAN of corruption in handling oil exports from fields under the KURDISTAN region’s control while IRAQ also went so far as to suggest that revenues could be sufficient to satisfy KURDISTAN expenses otherwise which the KURDISTAN government obviously refuted. However, on a positive note this week, IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi stated that he would lift a ban on international air traffic to the KURDISTAN Region such that flights could resume within one week. As a friendly reminder, international flights to and from the semi-autonomous KURDISTAN region’s two main airports in ERBIL and SULAIMANIYAH were halted on September 29, 2018 as part of sanctions imposed on the KURDS after they held an independence referendum four days earlier in defiance of IRAQI governments vehement opposition albeit the vote continuing overwhelmingly in favour of separation.
 
SYRIA News
 
As a friendly reminder, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH have made remarkable progress in the DEIR AL-ZOR region over the last several months liberating most of the province that was previously occupied by ISIS. Most recently, SAA units have made their way across several kilometers of territory south of the provincial capital of DEIR AL-ZOR striking ISIS in AL-MAYADEEN, ISIS’s new de facto capital in SYRIA. Therefore, the Russian Defence Ministry now estimates that the ISIS terrorist group controls less than five per cent of SYRIA after losing large swathes of territory to the SDF opposition fighters; the U.S. led coalition, the SAA and Russian allied forces. However, ISIS still controls several towns along the eastern and western banks of the EUPHRATES River. Among the occupied areas still under ISIS control are a group of towns that are located along the EUPHRATES River Valley including AL-ASHARAH, ABU HAMMAM, HAJEEN, AL-JALA and SOUSAH. However, the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declared that they have completely wiped out ISIS in Syria.
 
Meanwhile, this week, TURKISH artillery continued to fire into SYRIA’s AFRIN region using air power, artillery and ground troops that has alarmed the U.S. that has supported the KURDISH YPG in fighting against ISIS in northern Syria. Meanwhile, IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani, a staunch ally of the SYRIAN regime, has denounced the TURKISH invasion of AFRIN stating that any foreign intervention needs authorization from the SYRIAN regime. Meanwhile, the SYRIAN militias entering AFRIN are IRANIAN trained such that their presence has put IRANIAN proxies on the border with TURKEY and strengthened IRAN’s foothold in the area. However, this week President Recep Tayyip Erdogan clearly stated that TURKEY will not hand over AFRIN to the SYRIAN government after it removes the KURDISH YPG militia as the TURKISH military and allied Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel forces prepare to attack the heart of AFRIN city. Unfortunately, thousands of people continue to flee AFRIN to NUBUL and ZHARA in the northern countryside of ALEPPO that is still under control of the Syrian government, amid air raids, artillery shelling and the threat of an imminent ground invasion.
 
As a friendly reminder, after U.S. backed fighters had surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA, they finally managed to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. Fighters of the U.S. backed, KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) punched their way through ISIS lines in RAQQA city as KURDISH forces literally shot their way through the streets of RAQQA, concentrating fire on ISIS positions hidden in the urban ruin of RAQQA city while ISIS fought back hard. Meanwhile, witnesses of the aftermath of the battle for RAQQA duly noted that the victory celebrations by KURDISH forces felt muted as there were literally no civilians left in RAQQA such that it was the celebration of the liberation of a ghost town. However, Syrians hoping to return home to RAQQA now that RAQQA has been liberated from ISIS are being told to wait indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby some have already taken their toll in terms of human casualties.
 
Nonetheless, the current SYRIAN government under the control of President Bashar al-Assad stated that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA, which was liberated from ISIS by the U.S. backed and KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In particular, the existing SYRIAN regime stated that both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime. Meanwhile, this week, thousands of SYRIAN civilians fled from a Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel pocket in EASTERN GHOUTA crossing by foot to government controlled SYRIAN Arab Army (SAA) positions in the first mass exodus from the besieged enclave since SAA forces launched an assault to capture EASTERN GHOUTA over one month ago. As a friendly reminder, the SYRIAN government and its RUSSIAN allies have been pounding EASTERN GHOUTA with air strikes for over one month while this week the SAA launched a ground assault that has seized much of EASTERN GHOUTA while literally cutting towns off from each other. It is important to note that the fighting has raged on in EASTERN GHOUTA despite a U.N. Security Council demand for a ceasefire as both RUSSIA and the SYRIAN regime claim that the enemies they are hitting are members of terrorist groups unprotected by the ceasefire. Meanwhile, the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels deny the claims that there are terrorist factions fighting in EASTERN GHOUTA while stating that most residents are now fleeing because of the government’s relentless bombs falling on EASTERN GHOUTA.
 
 
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
 
As a friendly reminder, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the KURDS as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis.
 
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKEY hammered the KURDS in AFRIN as TURKEY’s military offensive in SYRIA against the U.S. backed KURDISH militias has driven civilians underground in what from the KURDISH perspective appears to be a massacre. In my opinion, TURKEY continued this week with their siege of AFRIN as the TURKISH army and associated Free Syrian Army (FSA) militias know very well that without reinforcements, the KURDISH YPG are outnumbered on the ground while the TURKISH air force has exclusive control over the skies in the region at the current time. Therefore, I was not surprised to see the European Parliament’s motion calling on TURKEY to withdraw from SYRIA’s AFRIN district nor the TURKISH response from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan promising that TURKISH troops will continue the operation in AFRIN until the mission is completed. In my opinion, TURKEY obviously slammed the motion approved by the European Parliament requesting a halt to TURKEY’s military offensive in AFRIN on the basis that it demonstrates clear support for the KURDISH YPG militants while in my opinion it reflects the realities that the European Parliament does not want to see another prolonged civil war engulf SYRIA with an enormous amount of additional civilian casualties.
 
In my opinion, TURKEY completely cut-off the supply of water and bread to AFRIN as TURKISH forces and their Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel allies have completely surrounded the KURDISH dominated city in preparation for a major ground assault on AFRIN that nobody at this stage will be able to prevent. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s threat that TURKEY will also clear MANBIJ where the U.S. has about 2,000 soldiers although the U.S. military officers say they have no intention of leaving although President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has urged the U.S. to pull out of the area, could very well be a turning point in the TURKISH offensive. In my opinion, although the U.S. has chosen to stay out of the battle for AFRIN, if TURKEY attacks the U.S. positions in MANBIJ, the U.S. could very well get drawn into a war with TURKEY, its NATO ally that would effectively shatter the alliance and trigger an international catastrophe. In my opinion, the TURKISH stance against the KURDISH YPG clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby there is so much innate hatred by opposing factions as depicted by TURKEY’s current all or nothing stance against the KURDISH YPG factions, built up over prolonged years of irreconcilable differences regarding an independent KURDISTAN, such that the only current viable solution from TURKEY’s point of view is the complete and utter destruction of the KURDISH YPG forces, while the KURDISH YPG forces from the outset were ready, willing and able to enter into negotiations with TURKEY via their U.S. allies from the war against ISIS, that was shattered with sheer brut TURKISH military force as TURKEY is unable to put its past differences aside with the KURDISH YPG to develop some sort of more logical, rational and coherent long-term solution for peace but rather TURKEY prefers to exercise its dominant authoritarian power under the principal that TURKEY will conquer first and negotiate thereafter if necessary.
 
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
 
As a friendly reminder, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after over one year of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power.
 
However, KURDISH and IRAQI forces still need to be vigilant for ISIS reunions to launch attacks through small covert groups of suicide attackers. In my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Hider al-Abadi’s announcement of full liberation of IRAQI lands with an official declaration of an end of the war against ISIS is accurate in theory but not in practice as significant ISIS fighters are still hiding underground like rats. In my opinion, this week’s strike on ISIS positions in western IRAQ killing seven ISIS terrorists while seizing a large cache of explosives and weapons illustrates the realities on the ground whereby despite IRAQ’s victory over ISIS last year, isolated ISIS cells believed to be linked to the ISIS militant group continue to remain active in some parts of IRAQ that need to be neutralized in order to prevent the resurgence of the ISIS terrorist organization. In regards to ISIS striking back in eastern IRAQ as ISIS extremists launched two separate attacks on IRAQI security forces in DIYALA and SALAHUDDIN, killing seven security members and wounding three others, this reflects the realities of the current ISIS organization that seems to be unable to take back control of IRAQI territories but is able to launch killing sprees in sheer terrorist attacks to inflict casualties and injuries. In my opinion, ISIS terrorists have recently carried out many insurgent attacks and bombings across IRAQ particularly in the oil-rich and disputed province of KIRKUK after IRAQI forces took over this territory last October as the remaining ISIS terrorist organization is fuming at the seems after having lost most of its territory in IRAQ to find itself like rats hiding underground as opposed to princes freely roaming the grounds.
 
However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
 
Meanwhile, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. In my opinion, this week’s KURDISH politicians continuing with their total withdrawal from the IRAQI political arena is not surprising after the IRAQI parliament approved the 2018 budget with a reduced share for the KURDISH autonomous region from 17% of the IRAQI budget as had been the case since the new IRAQI government was formed after the U.S. led invasion to the proportion of the KURDISH population that the IRAQI government estimates to be at 12.6%. In my opinion, the 17% demand by the KURDISH government is reasonable as at least 17% of IRAQI soil is covered with KURDISH blood such that the KURDS earned their 17% share through blood, sweat and tears as the KURDISH forces held back ISIS forces from conquering IRAQ in its entirety while IRAQI forces were scrambling and nowhere to be seen. However, in my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi lifting of the ban on international air traffic to the KURDISTAN Region such that flights can resume within one week is a sign of alleviating the existing stress on the KURDISTAN economy. In my opinion, given that only domestic flights have been allowed through KURDISTAN’s airports with foreign airlines suspending their routes in accordance with an order from the IRAQI government, the Kurdistan Region’s economy was badly hit with a decrease in tourism and travel affecting local businesses such that the full reopening of both airports in KURDISTAN will definitely assist its ailing economy.
 
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
 
As a friendly reminder, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, it finally does appear that ISIS has been defeated in DEIR AL-ZOR, AL-MAYADEEN and AL-BUKAMAL albeit violent clashes that sporadically continue to erupt around the town as ISIS finds itself trapped like rats underground only to be swept to the surface as the SAA goes through their respective sweeping operations across the outskirts of town. However, with the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declaring that they have completely wiped out ISIS in SYRIA, I expect that the remaining ISIS militants will be hiding in small towns and villages along the border with IRAQ in the SYRIAN dessert such that the remaining portion of no mans land along the Middle Euphrates River Valley will most likely represent ISIS’s last stand. In my opinion, ISIS still controls thousands of square kilometres of desert in the DEIR AL-ZOR, HOMS, IDLIB and DARAA regions such that although ISIS has been forced out of major SYRIAN cities, ISIS is still able to stage attacks on SAA and other rebel forces from these desert areas such that victory may have been achieved albeit ISIS still existing as a thorn in everybodies sides.
 
However, this week, I was surprised to see TURKISH artillery continuing to fire into SYRIA’s AFRIN region out of pure infuriation over the announcement of U.S. plans to train a 30,000 border force in the area of northern SYRIA where KURDISH YPG dominated forces drove out ISIS fighters last year while TURKEY now promises to strangle the KURDISH terrorist force before it is ever able to come into existence. Meanwhile, in my opinion, if the only option the KURDISH YPG has to repel the TURKISH attack on AFRIN are the SYRIAN militias who are believed to be IRANIAN trained, so be it, as long as they can get the job done to stave off TURKEY’s attempts at an invasion. In my opinion, the SYRIANS need to regain control of their own country and decide on their own future in unison such that a united stand between the SYRIAN Regime and the KURDISH YPG may force TURKEY to stand down and come back to the negotiating table on behalf of the FSA to once and for all put an end to this insane bloodbath. Nonetheless, this week TURKEY pressed ahead with its mission and pounded AFRIN while President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that TURKEY will not hand over AFRIN to the SYRIAN government after it removes the KURDISH YPG militia as the TURKISH military and allied Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel forces prepare to attack the heart of AFRIN city.
 
Unfortunately, four branches of the SDF, which had been fighting ISIS in Syria were transferred from east of the Euphrates River to AFRIN to join the pro-SYRIAN government fighters as part of a deal between the SYRIAN regime and the KURDISH forces. However, in my opinion, TURKEY’s warning of disastrous consequences should Syrian Arab Army (SAA) government forces intervene in AFRIN cannot be ignored as TURKEY seems adamant about recapturing ARFIN with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) such that consequences of the SAA entering the battle will trigger a full fledge showdown. Nonetheless, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) may have no choice but to intervene should the KURDISH YPG, SDF forces and pro-SYRIAN government IRANIAN militias be unable to hold their ground as TURKEY cannot continue to operate unilaterally with military operations to seize territory when the KURDISH YPG are ready, willing and able to negotiate via their U.S. allies to reach some sort of a sensible reasonable accommodation solution.
 
In regards to the Syrian city of RAQQA, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires. In my opinion, now in its seventh year, the war in SYRIA has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society.
 
Nonetheless, this week, it was sad to see the war in SYRIA entering into a dangerous new phase as EASTERN GHOUTA under attack by SYRIAN Regime forces on so-called SYRIAN rebel terrorists is a human tragedy that is unfolding before everybodies eyes such that in my opinion the international community cannot let things keep going in this horrendous fashion. As a friendly reminder, in some of the worst bombardment campaigns of the war in SYRIA, over one thousand people have been killed and over five thousand have been injured in EASTERN GHOUTA, a Free Syrian Army (FSA) held enclave that is home to about 400,000 people that borders the SYRIAN capital of Damascus. In my opinion, President Bashar al-Assad wants to recapture EASTERN GHOUTA because it is so close to DAMASCUS, the capital of SYRIA, that it is possible for rebels to fire mortars into the heart of the capital, which has previously led to hundreds of civilian deaths. However, this weeks sight of thousands of SYRIAN civilians fleeing in the first mass exodus from the besieged enclave since SAA forces launched an assault to capture EASTERN GHOUTA over one month ago was quite shocking to see as men, women and children staggered under the weight of blankets, bags and suitcases as they walked along a dirt road to SAA lines on the outskirts of HAMMOURIYEH town crying like Thanksgiving Turkeys after having been trapped in basements, cellars and tunnels for over a month.
 
In my opinion, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, as ISIS literally disappears from the face of the map in SYRIA, the question has become whether a race to conquer the oil rich regions could result in a showdown between the international coalitions consisting of the U.S. and SDF forces on the one side and the RUSSIAN and SAA forces on the other and/ or TURKEY on the one hand and KURDISH YPG and SAA forces on the other. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS such that this war could very well continue for years to come if RUSSIA is not given mediator powers to negotiate a deal between all Parties. In my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and madness.
 
 
Summary
 
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 290” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the current situation in AFRIN depicts how the TURKISH stance against the KURDISH YPG is predicated on innate hatred triggering TURKEY’s current all or nothing position against the KURDISH YPG factions, built up over prolonged years of irreconcilable differences regarding an independent KURDISTAN, such that the only current viable solution from TURKEY’s point of view is the complete and utter destruction of the KURDISH YPG forces, while the KURDISH YPG forces from the outset were ready, willing and able to enter into negotiations with TURKEY via their U.S. allies from the war against ISIS, that was shattered with sheer brut TURKISH military force as TURKEY is unable to put its past differences aside with the KURDISH YPG to develop some sort of more logical, rational and coherent long-term solution for peace but rather TURKEY prefers to exercise its dominant authoritarian power under the principal that TURKEY will conquer first and negotiate thereafter if necessary.

Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:

March 18, 2018