Wednesday, November 29, 2017
Change Management – Part 70
Christiano Says, “WHO Is Gangnam THE ROCK Style – Frustrated Intellectual Fascist Anarchy (FIFA) Syndrome?”
Tuesday, November 28, 2017
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Monday, November 27, 2017
Change Management – Part 69
Change Management Fundamental Basics “Gangnam THE ROCK Style” – Part 69
Christiano will learn over time that during periods of change, organizations should promote the belief that Hyperboles best illustrate that “Self-Induced Demented Paranoid (SDP) Syndrome” requires a healthy, spiritual and prayer filled life so that one may control their respective Demons inside.
In my opinion, organizations need to embrace the notion that during periods of change it is critical to insure that policies and procedures are in place to identify individuals contaminated with “Self-Induced Demented Paranoid (SDP) Syndrome” as a by product of significant change.
It is important for organizations to acknowledge that during periods of change, the greatest risk to successful change is posed by contamination of the mass with “Self-Induced Demented Paranoid (SDP) Syndrome” as opposed to a “Healthy Spiritual Prayer (HSP) Syndrome”.
In this New World Order (NWO) where there are persistent changes, be it through mergers and acquisitions or restructurings and reorganizations, the only constant which is assured over time is that of change. In order to be able to compete in this New World Order (NWO), there is one of two generic techniques.
The first technique which I refer to as “Self-Induced Demented Paranoid (SDP) Syndrome” is predicated on the notion when one feels threatened, in either fact or appearance, of losing their job, their home, their family, their wealth or any other “Raison D’Être”, one’s innate savage survival instincts tend to kick in, whereby one commences to create a self-induced demented event in their minds due to paranoia kicking in which everyone refuses to acknowledge as though it is some sort of evil sin.
The realities of the modern day world are that there are more and more individuals in today’s workplace who have experienced various physical, mental and emotional issues during the course of their life that form an integral part of their psychological make-up.
During periods of significant change when a “Change Leader” rattles their status quo cage, individuals can become like wild animals that go haywire triggering a whole slew of psychological reactions beyond the realm of standard Human Resource management issues.
For example, if someone was previously physically, mentally and/ or emotionally scarred, these emotions can trigger a self-induced demented paranoid observation that the “Change Leader” is performing some kind of dirty deed behind the scenes, which brings back buried memories of a traumatized past, resulting in abnormal, illogical, irrational and absurd behaviours.
This tends to be like years of pent-up frustration exploding to the surface like a rocket blast without anyone understanding what actually happened as it occurred way to fast. Further to this example, when others in the environment see this “rocket blast”, it tends to trigger multiple secondary blasts whereby everyone starts to become paranoid triggering further self-induced dementia galore.
As is evident from my Hyperboles above, this type of approach is destructive, counterproductive and chaotic by its nature. For the record, Hyperbole is defined as the use of exaggeration as a rhetorical device or figure of speech. Hyperboles may be used to evoke strong feelings or to create strong impressions but they are not meant to be taken literally.
Now I would like to focus on the second technique which I refer to as “Healthy Spiritual Prayer (HSP) Syndrome” whereby if one commences acting abnormally, illogically, irrationally and/ or absurdly, one goes back to the simple root of a healthy, spiritual and prayer filled life so that one may control their respective Demons inside.
In summary, I refer to “Change Management Gangnam THE ROCK Style” as the belief that Hyperboles best illustrate that “Self-Induced Demented Paranoid (SDP) Syndrome” requires a healthy, spiritual and prayer filled life so that one may control their respective Demons inside.
Christiano Says, “WHO Is Gangnam THE ROCK Style – Self-Induced Demented Paranoid (SDP) Syndrome?”
Saturday, November 25, 2017
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 274
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 274
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 274” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace as IRAQI KURDISH referendum resulted in YES win with 92.73% support from the turnout of 72% illustrating the new geopolitical realities whereby isolated random acts of violence such as this weeks BAGHDAD suicide bomber that killed 32 and wounded more than 75 should not derail the attempt by both the IRAQI and KURDISH governments to reach a peaceful negotiated settlement to this conflict such that individual lone wolfs or terrorist cells who decide to take matters into their own hands cannot be allowed to function as a trigger for a full fledged civil war as they do not represent the moderate mass but rather represent the extremist bad ass.
TURKEY News
During the week ending on Sunday, November 26, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP focused their attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants.
Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures although TURKEY’s crushing of the free press, destruction of the freedom of speech and restrictions to the right to peaceful demonstrations seems to be punishing the TURKISH economy as high inflation in TURKEY and a surge in foreign borrowing by TURKISH banks could plunge TURKEY into an economic crisis as soon as 2018. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities have issued detention warrants this week for 216 people, including former finance ministry personnel, suspected of having links to last year’s failed “Coup D’État” attempt. In addition, TURKISH armed forces carried out operations across 40 provinces targeting private imams believed to be recruiting members to the network of U.S. based cleric Fethullah Gulen. As a friendly reminder, TURKEY blames Fethullah Gulen for orchestrating the failed “Coup D’État” attempt last July and has repeatedly demanded the U.S. extradite Fethullah Gulen although all attempts for extradition seem to have fallen upon deaf ears as Fethullah Gulen denies any involvement in the failed “Coup D’État” for which there does not appear to be sufficient concrete evidence to initiate an extradition other than gossip, rumours and fictitious allegations. Therefore, it was not surprising this week to see RUSSIAN leaders meeting with IRANIAN and TURKISH counterparts while all diplomatic activities with the U.S. and the E.U. seem to have been sidelined. In particular, the summit between the three powers, all deeply involved in the SYRIAN conflict seems to be designed to pave the way for a settlement likely to leave SYRIA’s RUSSIAN and IRANIAN backed president, Bashar al-Assad, in power within a reformed SYRIAN constitution. It is important to note that President Recep Tayep Erdogan was once one of the main backers of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) opposition but is now primarily focused on what TURKEY sees as the KURDISH threat on its SYRIAN border. Therefore, it is not surprising that the Free Syrian Army (FSA) opposition has nearly collapsed since RUSSIA’s armed intervention in SYRIA and the military defeat of ISIS in all of the major towns and cities that were previously under ISIS control.
IRAQ News
Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and ALLIED forces have pushed ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces first liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety subsequent to ALLIANCE forces seizing complete control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS. It is important to note that IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS to the point of ISIS relinquishing control of MOSUL as the world watched the scenes of jubilation as IRAQI forces liberated the OLD MOSUL City from ISIS. However, with 40,000 plus dead in the battle to take back OLD MOSUL City from ISIS, the scale of civilian casualties reveals a massacre with many bodies still buried under the rubble and the level of human suffering immense. However, many ISIS militias have taken to the hills and began to wage a classic rural guerrilla war, while some ISIS sleeper cells have also been activated at the border of Baghdad, the IRAQI capital. Thus, ISIS has now returned to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group as the Islamic State of IRAQ and SYRIA can no longer call itself a state as ISIS has lost all capacity to act as a state but rather ISIS now stands exposed as a GANGSTER sham.
On the heels of the IRAQI military victory in MOSUL, IRAQI forces have broken through ISIS’s defences inside the northern city of TAL AFAR as IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared victory over ISIS. Furthermore, IRAQ’s Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi claims that the IRAQI military has retaken HAWIJA and AL-QAIM, the main towns in one of the last two enclaves of ISIS in the country although a few villages east of the town of HAWIJA are believed to still be under ISIS control. In addition, IRAQI pro-government forces commenced their long awaited operation to completely destroy ISIS’s caliphate in IRAQ with their campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants. In particular, IRAQI forces launched an offensive to recapture the last bastion of ISIS in IRAQ as soldiers, police, Sunni tribesmen and mostly Shia paramilitary fighters are taking part in the assault on AL-QAIM and RAWA in the Euphrates river valley close to the border with SYRIA. IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi told ISIS militants to choose between deaths and surrender as the IRAQI legions are advancing into the last areas of ISIS terrorism in IRAQ to liberate AL-QAIM, RAWA and the surrounding villages and hamlets. On a positive note this week, two young girls were arrested before carrying out a suicide bombing in western ANBAR targeting an officer’s residence in the city of HADITHA. It is important to note that the officer is a top commander of an IRAQI force that was the first to combat ISIS militants in ANBAR which started with only seven members but now comprises 90 plus IRAQI fighters.
Meanwhile, the KURDS still consider the September 25 referendum victory as the culmination of decades of struggle for a KURDISH state of their own although the IRAQI government has clearly stated that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. However, after the votes were tallied and the referendum passed with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, Iraq’s top SHIITE cleric out right rejected the outcome of KURDISTAN’s independence vote despite the overwhelming 92% voting in favour of separating from IRAQ. Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani stated that KURDS must return to the constitutional path arguing that it is in the best interests of all IRAQIS including the KURDS to go back to the constitutional path to solve the issues between the central IRAQI government and the KURDISH region’s government. IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi subsequently released a statement expressing his agreement with the position of Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in addition to stating that the IRAQI government considers KURDISTAN’s referendum as unconstitutional such that the IRAQI government has asked the KURDISH government to cancel its outcome in order to satisfy a precondition for talks on outstanding issues between the two governments. Meanwhile, IRAQI forces along with IRANIAN trained paramilitaries deployed heavy weaponry build up in KIRKUK, the jewel of the proposed future KURDISTAN state. Subsequently, IRAQI forces took control of all major areas of KIRKUK province from KURDISH YPG fighters following fierce fighting. In particular, IRAQI forces took ALTON KUPRI, the oil-rich province of KURDISTAN as rocket; artillery and heavy machine-gun fire erupted in the region. As a friendly reminder, the salient point of disagreement stems from the IRAQI Federal Government deeming the referendum vote as unconstitutional while the KURDISH leadership reaffirms the referendums legitimacy on the basis that it was supported by the majority of the people living in the KURDISTAN Region and was justified on the basis that IRAQI officials have regularly violated over 55 articles of the IRAQI Constitution.
Ironically, IRAQI military officials and their KURDISH counterparts went into a new round of talks under the banner of the U.S. in FISH KHABUR to try to find a settlement for recent disputes and the threat of further military confrontation particularly over the border crossing points. It seems that both sides have agreed on some points and are close to reaching a final agreement although no agreement has yet been signed or made public. Apparently, the IRAQI military side were adamant that the FISH KHABOUR border crossing should be handed over to IRAQI military but agreed for KURDISH border guards presence as well as a U.S. force to run the border crossing in tandem. In regards to Kurdish areas outside the Kurdistan Region still held by the KURDS including SHEIKHAN, MAHMODIYA, SAHELA, ALQOSH, GWER and KHAZIR, it seems that these areas will be run jointly between the KURDISH and IRAQI armies. Also of critical importance, the two sides are also working to negotiate a truce after deadly clashes erupted in some of the disputed territories near the SYRIAN border and south of ERBIL.
Meanwhile, last week, IRAQI Kurdish authorities stated that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession. However, the KURDS also stated that this decision must become a basis for starting an inclusive national dialogue between KURDISTAN and IRAQ to resolve all disputes through implementation of all constitutional articles and in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution because all elements of the IRAQI Constitution must be respected in order to secure the unity of IRAQ. Unfortunately, this week a suicide bomber detonated a pick-up truck loaded with explosives killing 32 people at a marketplace in a contested town claimed by both the IRAQI and KURDISH governments. IRAQI police have stated that the powerful explosion in TUZ KHORMATO, about 130 miles north of the capital of BAGHDAD, IRAQ, wounded at least 75 people with at least 6 members of IRAQ’s security forces among those killed while no one immediately claimed responsibility for the attack.
SYRIA News
Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN Army under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH focused their attention on ISIS in DEIR AL-ZOR while growing concerns mounted for civilians amid tense fighting. It is important to note that the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has made remarkable progress in the DEIR AL-ZOR region over the last seven weeks liberating a significant portion of the province that was previously occupied by ISIS. Most recently, SAA units have made their way across several kilometers of territory south of the provincial capital of DEIR AL-ZOR putting them within striking distance of AL-MAYADEEN, ISIS’s new de facto capital in SYRIA. Last week the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) captured positions in the town of MEKHAN, south of AL-MAYADEEN close to the SYRIA’s border with IRAQ such that the SAA is now pushing further south towards the town of BOUKAMAL that, if seized by the SAA, would be a major loss for ISIS. Therefore, the Russian Defence Ministry now estimates that the ISIS terrorist group controls less than five per cent of SYRIA after losing large swathes of territory to the SDF opposition fighters; the U.S. led coalition, the SAA and Russian allied forces. However, estimates indicate that ISIS still controls over 60 kilometers of territory in the DEIR AL-ZOR Region, including several towns along the eastern and western banks of the EUPHRATES River. Among the occupied areas still under ISIS control are a group of towns that are located along the EUPHRATES River Valley including AL-ASHARAH, ABU HAMMAM, HAJEEN, AL-JALA and SOUSAH. However, this week, the SAA struck hard the last towns occupied by ISIS forces between the cities of AL-MAYADEEN and BOUKAMAL whereby the SAA 4’th Division on one side and the SAA Tiger Forces on the other side surrounded ISIS positions with a new advance against ISIS whereby SAA forces are now within 15 km of each other and essentially squeezing out the last ISIS pockets of resistance.
On a positive note, after U.S. backed fighters had surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA, they finally managed to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, have cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. Fighters of the U.S. backed, KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) punched their way through ISIS lines in RAQQA city as KURDISH forces literally shot their way through the streets of RAQQA, concentrating fire on ISIS positions hidden in the urban ruin of RAQQA city while ISIS fought back hard. On a positive note, the SDF announced that they have seized the center of RAQQA city where they have been thwarting car bombs and suicide attacks. Meanwhile, witnesses of the aftermath of the battle for RAQQA duly noted that the victory celebrations by KURDISH forces felt muted as there were literally no civilians left in RAQQA such that it was the celebration of the liberation of a ghost town. However, Syrians hoping to return home to RAQQA now that RAQQA has been liberated from ISIS are being told to wait indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby some have already taken their toll in terms of human casualties. Nonetheless, the current SYRIAN government under the control of President Bashar al-Assad stated that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA, which was liberated from ISIS by the U.S. backed and KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In particular, the existing SYRIAN regime stated that both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime. Meanwhile, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin stated that his IRANIAN and TURKISH counterparts have supported a proposal to hold a “Syrian People’s Congress” that will bring together government and opposition figures. The congress will look at the key questions on SYRIA’s national agenda including the drawing-up of a framework for the future structure of SYRIA, the adoption of a new constitution and the holding of elections under United Nations supervision. In a joint statement, the three leaders underlined the need for all warring sides to release all prisoners and hostages, hand over bodies and create the conditions for a lasting truce.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders.
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities have issued detention warrants this week for 216 people, including former finance ministry personnel, suspected of having links to last year’s failed “Coup D’État” attempt such that TURKEY has sent the message to the international community that TURKEY does not care what the rest of the world thinks about TURKEY’s crackdown measures. As a friendly reminder, in the aftermath of the failed “Coup D’État” attempt, more than 50,000 people have been jailed pending trial and some 150,000 have been fired or suspended from their jobs in the military, public and private sectors which in my opinion seems excessive as it is hard to believe that there exists concrete evidence to pin such a large group of individuals directly to the failed “Coup D’État” attempt. In my opinion, TURKEY appears to be abusing its self declared state of emergency to enable TURKEY to impose stiff penalties based on the principal of guilty until proven innocent on what appears to be gossip, rumours and fictitious allegations that amount to reasonable suspicions, that are equivalent to circumstantial evidence in international courts of law, that would not be considered sufficient in and of themselves to warrant persecution, let alone incarceration. However, TURKEY appears to be comfortable with its stiff persecutions under its self-declared state of emergency that is akin to terrorism in the sense that suspicions of terrorism allow for the circumventions of civil rights and liberties on the premise of there being an imminent threat to national security. Hence, there seems to be conflicting violin like concerts being played out whereby the extent of the TURKISH purges has stressed out all major civil rights groups including TURKEY’s Western allies who fear President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is using TURKEY’s self-declared state of emergency as a pretext to end any and all dissent within TURKEY. However, the TURKISH government continues to reiterate that the purgatory measures are necessary due to the gravity of the threats TURKEY is facing following the failed “Coup D’État” attempt in which 240 people were killed. Therefore, it was not surprising this week to see RUSSIAN leaders meeting with IRANIAN and TURKISH counterparts while all diplomatic activities with the U.S. and the E.U. seem to have been sidelined as the new geopolitical stage of the Middle East seems to be predicated on the notion that birds of a feather will tend to flock together such that TURKEY today seems to share more common ground with IRAN and RUSSIA such that TURKEY seems to be slowly but surely distancing itself from both the U.S. and the E.U. In my opinion, the U.S. and the E.U. now appear in TURKEY’s eyes as a persistently scolding, nagging and irritating wife while RUSSIA and IRAN seem to be emerging as a satisfying mistress for TURKEY to release stress, agony, pain and strife.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Moving on to IRAQ, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after over one year of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power.
Now that the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly transferred from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred to as TAL AFAR and HAWIJA in a lightening fast military offensive, over 100 villages in the outskirts still need to be purged to finalize the liberation as to the extent armed ISIS militants are still at large, the liberation cannot be deemed completed. In regards to the IRAQI forces campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants, Western ANBAR is the last region in IRAQ where ISIS held extensive stretches of territories. In my opinion, two key strongholds held by ISIS in western ANBAR were the towns of RAWA and AL QAIM near the IRAQI-SYRIAN border. However, with IRAQ’s prime minister, Haider al-Abadi announcing the recapture of AL-QAIM and RAWA, ISIS’s last stronghold in IRAQ, ISIS seems to find itself hiding in remote places afraid to expose their ISIS flag and disgraced ISIS faces. It is important to note that Iraqi government forces have now driven ISIS out of about 95% of the land ISIS once held in IRAQ and freed more than 4.4 million IRAQIS from ISIS rule. In my opinion, AL-QAIM, RAWA and the nearby Syrian border town of ALBU KAMAL are of strategic importance to ISIS as the group used routes through these locations to transfer fighters, weapons and goods. Therefore, the towns are also symbolically important because they made up ISIS’s self-declared, cross-border EUPHRATES PROVINCE that was a symbol of ISIS’s intention to eradicate all of the region’s borders between IRAQ and SYRIA. In my opinion, this week’s two young girls who were arrested before carrying out suicide bombings in western ANBAR targeting an officer’s residence in the city of HADITHA depicts the magnitude of ISIS desperation to reverse the tide of ISIS perpetual losses but once again to no avail as IRAQI forces are standing on guard and alert for ISIS kamikaze faithful. In my opinion, ISIS will resort to more and more children suicide bombers in the future, as their last resort to resist complete and utter decimation as ISIS has shown throughout their history that there is nothing that ISIS will not do to psychologically traumatize their enemies.
However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of a new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
In regards to the IRAQI KURDS referendum on independence on September 25, 2017, it is still my opinion that the IRAQI KURDS have the right to pursue their independence pursuant to the majority win by the KURDS with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, albeit the reality that they seem to be moving way too fast given that the IRAQI government claims that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. In my opinion, the IRAQI KURDS still need to negotiate with the IRAQI government to respect the IRAQI constitution such that although the KURDISH vote was a clear indication of majority support for separation, the September 25 referendum only serves a symbolic victory thus far, as it cannot be supported legally without further negotiations with the IRAQI government. In my opinion, it is unfortunate that the U.S. two main allies in the fight against ISIS in IRAQ are now in a shooting war with each other over control of an oil-rich city that represents a fight that has the potential to throw IRAQ into chaos and possibly even a full-scale civil war. In summary, when ISIS took over IRAQ in 2014, this fight over KIRKUK and KURDISH independence got largely pushed to the back burner as both IRAQ and KURDISTAN focused on kicking ISIS out of the country. However, now that IRAQI and KURDISH forces have pushed ISIS out of most of IRAQ, these old divisions between IRAQ and KURDISTAN have once again exploded such that the fight over KIRKUK and KURDISH independence could end up once again destabilizing IRAQ all over again. It is important to note that although KURDISH leaders were willing to use the referendum results as an opening bid in negotiations with IRAQ over expanded autonomy, federal forces responded by retaking KIRKUK and other disputed areas outside the KURDS’ autonomous region with limited bloodshed as most KURDISH forces withdrew without a fight although scattered clashes did break out.
In my opinion, the international community needs to condemn IRAQ’s military aggression on the KURDS as excessive, unreasonable and unjustified, particularly in light of the fact that KURDISH blood soaks KIRKUK as it was the KURDS who stood tall against ISIS and refused to allow KIRKUK to fall while the IRAQI military shat full their overalls when ISIS was charging full speed while the KURDS refused to secede. Unfortunately, the U.S. is closely allied with both the IRAQI military and KURDISH forces, which together have driven ISIS out from most of IRAQ but although the battle against the ISIS extremists is not yet over, the dispute with the KURDS has diverted precious resources away from the war on ISIS. In my opinion, negotiations between IRAQI military officials and their KURDISH counterparts under the banner of the U.S. in FISH KHABUR to try to find a settlement for recent disputes and the threat of further military confrontation particularly over the border crossing points was critical to avert a full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the discussions seem to show that both the IRAQI and KURDISH militaries want to avoid a full fledge civil war as they both seem to be inclined to prefer to share in the oil rich jewels of KURDISTAN as opposed to risking the destruction of the entire region to end up winning the civil war but being left with nothing to show.
However, last week’s decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. Therefore, in my opinion, the KURDS will no longer accept being treated like second-class citizens in IRAQ such that the KURDS will in essence retake control of their destinies within the IRAQI federal system via a quiet revolution to avert further bloodshed in IRAQ that could risk the complete and utter destruction of the entire KURDISTAN region. In my opinion, this week’s suicide bomber that detonated a pick-up truck loaded with explosives killing 32 and wounding at least 75 people at a marketplace in a contested town claimed by both the IRAQI and KURDISH governments depicts the tensions riding hide between both sides to this conflict. However, isolated random acts of violence should not derail the attempt by both the IRAQI and KURDISH governments to reach a peaceful negotiated settlement to this conflict as it is evident that any civil war trigger will likely result in the complete and utter destruction of the entire KURDISTAN region as both sides are fully armed and of comparable strength to wage a prolonged and bloody civil war. In my opinion, it is important for cooler heads to prevail in this KURDISH and IRAQI conflict such that individual lone wolfs or terrorist cells who decide to take matters into their own hands cannot be allowed to function as a trigger for a full fledged civil war as they do not represent the moderate mass but rather represent the extremist bad ass.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN Army under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH now focused on targeting ISIS in DEIR AL-ZOR after letting ISIS withdraw from SYRIA’s border with LEBANON to the eastern province of DEIR AL-ZOR over one month ago. This strategic shift in focus by the SYRIAN Army on ISIS is key to overall peace in the region as the only issue that everybody in the region seems to agree upon is that ISIS needs to be contained to an underground organization without any significant control of land particularly along any major borders. Thus, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, the strikes on ISIS around DEIR AL-ZOR were perfectly timed as ISIS has been losing momentum with recent losses in neighbouring IRAQ and SYRIA while also being hit hard elsewhere in SYRIA by SDF forces. In my opinion, for ISIS, the loss of AL-MAYADEEN is a bigger loss than their imminent defeat in RAQQA City as AL-MAYADEEN is located along the main road to ISIS’s most important IRAQI crossing at ALBUKAMAL. Furthermore, ALBUKAMAL is located directly west of the IRAQI city of AL-QA’IM that is another ISIS stronghold in the AL-ANBAR region that ISIS is desperately attempting to hold. Thus, it is not surprising that the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad stormed the SYRIAN border city of AL-BUKAMAL from 3 directions. In my opinion, the SAA, Hezbollah and Iran’s IRGC made notable progress against ISIS inside the city despite strong resistance from ISIS. In my opinion, ISIS now finds itself in a NO-WIN situation as SAA forces stormed the last towns occupied by ISIS forces between the cities of AL-MAYADEEN and BOUKAMAL whereby the SAA 4’th Division on one side and the SAA Tiger Forces on the other side surrounded ISIS positions with a new advance against ISIS whereby SAA forces are now within 15 km of each other and essentially squeezing out the last ISIS pockets of resistance.
In regards to U.S. backed fighters surrounding the Syrian city of RAQQA as they finally ousted the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA, capturing RAQQA represents a major achievement in the battle against ISIS and helps to bring an end to ISIS’s reign of terror trying to create a so-called Caliphate. In my opinion, ISIS has used RAQQA for over three years to stage deadly attacks on the Middle East and further overseas such that capturing RAQQA from ISIS significantly reduces ISIS’s terrorist capabilities in the future. Therefore, the strength of the ISIS terrorists is running out as their defeats thus far in RAQQA have undermined their morale and prevented them from fighting back effectively other than hiding behind innocent civilians as human shields. Unfortunately, the by-product of this liberation of RAQQA from ISIS appears to be the complete destruction of RAQQA that in my opinion can be attributed to the ALLIANCES’s relentless aerial bombardment of RAQQA to compensate for the weaknesses of its SDF forces on the ground. This was evident during victory celebrations by KURDISH forces that felt muted, as there were literally no civilians left in RAQQA such that it was the celebration of the liberation of a ghost town. In my opinion, ISIS is to blame for the complete destruction of RAQQA as with ISIS’s sole remaining technique of hiding behind civilians for cover, there was no other way to liberate RAQQA than via complete destruction of the city, the death and maiming of hundreds of civilians and the displacement of tens of thousands.
In my opinion, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires. Therefore, the announcement this week by RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin that his IRANIAN and TURKISH counterparts have supported a proposal to hold a “Syrian People’s Congress” that will bring together government and opposition figures should be welcomed with open arms. In my opinion, now in its seventh year, the war in SYRIA has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society.
However, as ISIS literally disappears from the face of the map in SYRIA, the question has become whether a race to conquer the oil rich regions could result in a showdown between the international coalitions consisting of the U.S. and SDF forces on the one side and the RUSSIAN and SAA forces on the other. In my opinion, a direct military confrontation is unlikely to take place but the SYRIAN regime is in great need of the region’s oil to boost its struggling economy after the U.S. seized oil fields in RAQQA, the AL-OMAR oil field and a natural gas field in DEIR EZ-ZOR. In my opinion, the realities of the ISIS organization are that ISIS will not disappear completely off the face of the map as they still have quite a bit of amassed wealth such that eventually some sort of ceasefire deal will need to be negotiated with ISIS to contain them to limited restricted areas as opposed to dispersing them across the globe and giving ISIS the opportunity to launch covert terrorist strikes globally.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 274” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace as IRAQI KURDISH referendum resulted in YES win with 92.73% support from the turnout of 72% illustrating the new geopolitical realities whereby isolated random acts of violence such as this weeks BAGHDAD suicide bomber that killed 32 and wounded more than 75 should not derail the attempt by both the IRAQI and KURDISH governments to reach a peaceful negotiated settlement to this conflict such that individual lone wolfs or terrorist cells who decide to take matters into their own hands cannot be allowed to function as a trigger for a full fledged civil war as they do not represent the moderate mass but rather represent the extremist bad ass.
Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:
November 26, 2017
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