In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 273” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace as IRAQI KURDISH referendum resulted in YES win with 92.73% support from the turnout of 72% illustrating the new geopolitical realities whereby the KURDS will no longer accept being treated like second-class citizens in IRAQ such that the KURDS will in essence retake control of their destinies within the IRAQI federal system via a quiet revolution to avert further bloodshed in IRAQ that could risk the complete and utter destruction of the entire KURDISTAN region such that the KURDS will essentially function as a relatively independent province within the IRAQI federation.
TURKEY News
During the week ending on Sunday, November 19, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP focused their attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants.
Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures although TURKEY’s crushing of the free press, destruction of the freedom of speech and restrictions to the right to peaceful demonstrations seems to be punishing the TURKISH economy as high inflation in TURKEY and a surge in foreign borrowing by TURKISH banks could plunge TURKEY into an economic crisis as soon as 2018. It is important to note that compared to other emerging markets TURKEY was an exception to the broad trend whereby TURKEY experienced an increase in deficits and declining foreign exchange reserves. Therefore, it was not surprising to see TURKEY announce that prominent business people, experts and politicians from across the world are to meet in TURKEY for a three-day event between November 28 to 30 consisting of workshops and panels on global issues. Participants from Turkey, Qatar, Pakistan, Iran, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, India, Russia, China and other countries with almost 2,000 participants and 175 speakers are expected to be present from 70 plus countries with the main theme of “Design of the Future; The New Challenge of Globalisation” with a special focus on the issues of the Middle East. In addition, TURKEY signed several cooperation agreements with QATAR this week during President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit, as part of his tour of the Gulf States, including a memorandum of understanding on central banking, tourism and judicial education; a declaration of intention in the meteorological field; cooperation agreements on friendly harbours and criminal subjects; and media, technology and humanitarian assistance issues. As a friendly reminder, TURKEY backs QATAR in the Gulf crisis that was triggered in June when Saudi Arabia, Egypt, U.A.E. and Bahrain cut diplomatic and trade ties with QATAR on the basis of accusations that QATAR supports terrorist groups which QATAR denies while describing the embargo as a breach of QATAR’s national sovereignty.
IRAQ News
Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and ALLIED forces have pushed ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces first liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety subsequent to ALLIANCE forces seizing complete control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS. It is important to note that IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS to the point of ISIS relinquishing control of MOSUL as the world watched the scenes of jubilation as IRAQI forces liberated the OLD MOSUL City from ISIS. However, with 40,000 plus dead in the battle to take back OLD MOSUL City from ISIS, the scale of civilian casualties reveals a massacre with many bodies still buried under the rubble and the level of human suffering immense. However, ISIS is far from eradicated in IRAQ as several strongholds still remain such that the final battles to push ISIS out of these places will be more complicated than the previous straightforward fights. In addition, many ISIS militias have taken to the hills and began to wage a classic rural guerrilla war, while some ISIS sleeper cells have also been activated at the border of Baghdad, the IRAQI capital. Thus, ISIS has now returned to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group as the Islamic State of IRAQ and SYRIA can no longer call itself a state as ISIS has lost all capacity to act as a state but rather ISIS now stands exposed as a GANGSTER sham.
On the heels of the IRAQI military victory in MOSUL, IRAQI forces have broken through ISIS’s defences inside the northern city of TAL AFAR as IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared victory over ISIS. Furthermore, IRAQ’s Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi claims that the IRAQI military has retaken HAWIJA and AL-QAIM, the main towns in one of the last two enclaves of ISIS in the country although a few villages east of the town of HAWIJA are believed to still be under ISIS control. In addition, IRAQI pro-government forces commenced their long awaited operation to completely destroy ISIS’s caliphate in IRAQ with their campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants. In particular, IRAQI forces launched an offensive to recapture the last bastion of ISIS in IRAQ as soldiers, police, Sunni tribesmen and mostly Shia paramilitary fighters are taking part in the assault on AL-QAIM and RAWA in the Euphrates river valley close to the border with SYRIA. IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi told ISIS militants to choose between deaths and surrender as the IRAQI legions are advancing into the last areas of ISIS terrorism in IRAQ to liberate AL-QAIM, RAWA and the surrounding villages and hamlets. On a positive note this week, a surprise attack by ISIS militants near SALAHUDDIN province was thwarted by IRAQI forces whereby the attack by ISIS targeted checkpoints for IRAQI forces in AL-BU EISSA village on the borders between SALAHUDDIN and MUTAIBIJA. After heavy clashes erupted, the IRAQI forces managed to prevent the ISIS militants from penetrating the IRAQI security checkpoints and ultimately forced the ISIS militants to flee.
Meanwhile, the KURDS still consider the September 25 referendum victory as the culmination of decades of struggle for a KURDISH state of their own although the IRAQI government has clearly stated that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. However, after the votes were tallied and the referendum passed with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, Iraq’s top SHIITE cleric out right rejected the outcome of KURDISTAN’s independence vote despite the overwhelming 92% voting in favour of separating from IRAQ. Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani stated that KURDS must return to the constitutional path arguing that it is in the best interests of all IRAQIS including the KURDS to go back to the constitutional path to solve the issues between the central IRAQI government and the KURDISH region’s government. IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi subsequently released a statement expressing his agreement with the position of Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in addition to stating that the IRAQI government considers KURDISTAN’s referendum as unconstitutional such that the IRAQI government has asked the KURDISH government to cancel its outcome in order to satisfy a precondition for talks on outstanding issues between the two governments. Meanwhile, IRAQI forces along with IRANIAN trained paramilitaries deployed heavy weaponry build up in KIRKUK, the jewel of the proposed future KURDISTAN state. Subsequently, IRAQI forces took control of all major areas of KIRKUK province from KURDISH YPG fighters following fierce fighting. In particular, IRAQI forces took ALTON KUPRI, the oil-rich province of KURDISTAN as rocket; artillery and heavy machine-gun fire erupted in the region. As a friendly reminder, the salient point of disagreement stems from the IRAQI Federal Government deeming the referendum vote as unconstitutional while the KURDISH leadership reaffirms the referendums legitimacy on the basis that it was supported by the majority of the people living in the KURDISTAN Region and was justified on the basis that IRAQI officials have regularly violated over 55 articles of the IRAQI Constitution.
Ironically, IRAQI military officials and their KURDISH counterparts went into a new round of talks under the banner of the U.S. in FISH KHABUR to try to find a settlement for recent disputes and the threat of further military confrontation particularly over the border crossing points. It seems that both sides have agreed on some points and are close to reaching a final agreement although no agreement has yet been signed or made public. Apparently, the IRAQI military side were adamant that the FISH KHABOUR border crossing should be handed over to IRAQI military but agreed for KURDISH border guards presence as well as a U.S. force to run the border crossing in tandem. In regards to Kurdish areas outside the Kurdistan Region still held by the KURDS including SHEIKHAN, MAHMODIYA, SAHELA, ALQOSH, GWER and KHAZIR, it seems that these areas will be run jointly between the KURDISH and IRAQI armies. Also of critical importance, the two sides are also working to negotiate a truce after deadly clashes erupted in some of the disputed territories near the SYRIAN border and south of ERBIL.
Meanwhile, last week, IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court concluded that the IRAQI constitution did not allow for the secession of any part of the country stressing the preservation of the unity and territorial integrity of IRAQ. However, Mohammed Ali, the spokesman for the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), claims that the KURDISH government has not committed any illegal steps such that the conclusion by IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court has been politicised. Furthermore, Mohammed Ali claims that all the reactions in the post-referendum period have been highly politicised such that it is very unfortunate to see an entity such as IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court taking sides. In an unusual twist of fate this week, IRAQI Kurdish authorities stated that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession. However, the KURDS also stated that this decision must become a basis for starting an inclusive national dialogue between KURDISTAN and IRAQ to resolve all disputes through implementation of all constitutional articles and in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution because all elements of the IRAQI Constitution must be respected in order to secure the unity of IRAQ.
SYRIA News
Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN Army under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH focused their attention on ISIS in DEIR AL-ZOR while growing concerns mounted for civilians amid tense fighting. It is important to note that the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has made remarkable progress in the DEIR AL-ZOR region over the last seven weeks liberating a significant portion of the province that was previously occupied by ISIS. Most recently, SAA units have made their way across several kilometers of territory south of the provincial capital of DEIR AL-ZOR putting them within striking distance of AL-MAYADEEN, ISIS’s new de facto capital in SYRIA. Last week the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) captured positions in the town of MEKHAN, south of AL-MAYADEEN close to the SYRIA’s border with IRAQ such that the SAA is now pushing further south towards the town of BOUKAMAL that, if seized by the SAA, would be a major loss for ISIS. Therefore, the Russian Defence Ministry now estimates that the ISIS terrorist group controls less than five per cent of SYRIA after losing large swathes of territory to the SDF opposition fighters; the U.S. led coalition, the SAA and Russian allied forces. However, estimates indicate that ISIS still controls over 60 kilometers of territory in the DEIR AL-ZOR Region, including several towns along the eastern and western banks of the EUPHRATES River. Among the occupied areas still under ISIS control are a group of towns that are located along the EUPHRATES River Valley including AL-ASHARAH, ABU HAMMAM, HAJEEN, AL-JALA and SOUSAH. However, this week, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), Hezbollah and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were storming the SYRIAN border city of AL-BUKAMAL from 3 directions after having liberated TAL SALASSE, the village of HAMDAN including the airport while reaching the Euphrates River in the north. Meanwhile, the U.S. backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have advanced towards the SYRIAN – IRAQI border from the town of AL-SUWAR in northern DEIR AL-ZOR as the SDF also launched an advance on ISIS along the Euphrates Bank.
On a positive note, after U.S. backed fighters had surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA, they finally managed to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, have cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. Fighters of the U.S. backed, KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) punched their way through ISIS lines in RAQQA city as KURDISH forces literally shot their way through the streets of RAQQA, concentrating fire on ISIS positions hidden in the urban ruin of RAQQA city while ISIS fought back hard. On a positive note, the SDF announced that they have seized the center of RAQQA city where they have been thwarting car bombs and suicide attacks. Meanwhile, witnesses of the aftermath of the battle for RAQQA duly noted that the victory celebrations by KURDISH forces felt muted as there were literally no civilians left in RAQQA such that it was the celebration of the liberation of a ghost town. However, Syrians hoping to return home to RAQQA now that RAQQA has been liberated from ISIS are being told to wait indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby some have already taken their toll in terms of human casualties. Nonetheless, the current SYRIAN government under the control of President Bashar al-Assad stated that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA, which was liberated from ISIS by the U.S. backed and KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In particular, the existing SYRIAN regime stated that both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime. Meanwhile, reports have been circulating that it appears that the remaining ISIS fighters that were trapped in RAQQA were able to leave under a secret deal with the SDF who gave the remaining ISIS fighters free passage via convoy to leave the liberated city to complete the full transfer of control of RAQQA to SDF forces.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders.
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Furthermore, double digit inflation in the energy sector where TURKEY is an importer could be punished by oil’s rising prices to two year highs while a construction boom largely financed by foreign borrowings could also be another destabilizing factor. In my opinion, it is not surprising to see TURKEY announce that prominent business people, experts and politicians from across the world are to meet in TURKEY for a three-day event between November 28 to 30 with the main theme of “Design of the Future; The New Challenge of Globalisation” with a special focus on the issues of the Middle East. In my opinion, TURKEY will now attempt to turn the corner after one of TURKEY’s most oppressive periods in history since the failed “Coup D’État” of July of 2016 by utilizing this event as a springboard for future sustainable cooperation within different business sectors and to promote TURKISH commerce on both a regional and global scale. In regards to TURKEY signing several cooperation agreements with QATAR this week including a memorandum of understanding on central banking, tourism and media, technology and humanitarian assistance issues, it seems obvious that TURKEY has recognized its pending cloud of economic issues which TURKEY now seems focused to address. In my opinion, TURKEY reflects the new geopolitical landscape whereby when a country is in a position of strength, it ignores all neighbours and does as it pleases until it experiences economic stress at which point in time it starts to better communicate with neighbours in an attempt to have the underlying economic issues addressed before the entire country starts to regress and falls into a recession spiral effect under duress.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Moving on to IRAQ, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after over one year of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power.
Now that the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly transferred from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred to as TAL AFAR and HAWIJA in a lightening fast military offensive, over 100 villages in the outskirts of HAWIJA still need to be purged to finalize the liberation of HAWIJA as to the extent armed ISIS militants are still at large, the liberation of HAWIJA cannot be deemed completed. In regards to the IRAQI forces campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants, Western ANBAR is the last region in IRAQ where ISIS held extensive stretches of territories. In my opinion, two key strongholds held by ISIS in western ANBAR were the towns of RAWA and AL QAIM near the IRAQI-SYRIAN border. However, with IRAQ’s prime minister, Haider al-Abadi announcing the recapture of AL-QAIM, ISIS’s last stronghold in IRAQ, ISIS seems to find itself hiding in remote places afraid to expose their ISIS flag and disgraced ISIS faces. It is important to note that Iraqi government forces have now driven ISIS out of about 95% of the land ISIS once held in IRAQ and freed more than 4.4 million IRAQIS from ISIS rule. In my opinion, AL-QAIM, RAWA and the nearby Syrian border town of ALBU KAMAL are of strategic importance to ISIS as the group used routes through these locations to transfer fighters, weapons and goods. Therefore, the towns are also symbolically important because they made up ISIS’s self-declared, cross-border EUPHRATES PROVINCE that was a symbol of ISIS’s intention to eradicate all of the region’s borders between IRAQ and SYRIA. In my opinion, this week’s surprise attack by ISIS militants near SALAHUDDIN province that whereby IRAQI forces managed to prevent the ISIS militants from penetrating the IRAQI security checkpoints and ultimately forced the ISIS militants to flee demonstrates that ISIS continues to be a threat in IRAQ albeit now being converted into a covert terrorist operation. However, MUTAIBIJA’s terrain is quite complicated to defend as it contains numerous hills that serve as good hideouts for ISIS militants such that occasional attacks by ISIS are inevitable when ISIS chooses to come out of hiding with the goal to slaughter IRAQI forces while surprising.
However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of a new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
In regards to the IRAQI KURDS referendum on independence on September 25, 2017, it is still my opinion that the IRAQI KURDS have the right to pursue their independence pursuant to the majority win by the KURDS with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, albeit the reality that they seem to be moving way too fast given that the IRAQI government claims that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. In my opinion, the IRAQI KURDS still need to negotiate with the IRAQI government to respect the IRAQI constitution such that although the KURDISH vote was a clear indication of majority support for separation, the September 25 referendum only serves a symbolic victory thus far, as it cannot be supported legally without further negotiations with the IRAQI government. In my opinion, it is unfortunate that the U.S. two main allies in the fight against ISIS in IRAQ are now in a shooting war with each other over control of an oil-rich city that represents a fight that has the potential to throw IRAQ into chaos and possibly even a full-scale civil war. In summary, when ISIS took over IRAQ in 2014, this fight over KIRKUK and KURDISH independence got largely pushed to the back burner as both IRAQ and KURDISTAN focused on kicking ISIS out of the country. However, now that IRAQI and KURDISH forces have pushed ISIS out of most of IRAQ, these old divisions between IRAQ and KURDISTAN have once again exploded such that the fight over KIRKUK and KURDISH independence could end up once again destabilizing IRAQ all over again. It is important to note that although KURDISH leaders were willing to use the referendum results as an opening bid in negotiations with IRAQ over expanded autonomy, federal forces responded by retaking KIRKUK and other disputed areas outside the KURDS’ autonomous region with limited bloodshed as most KURDISH forces withdrew without a fight although scattered clashes did break out.
In my opinion, the international community needs to condemn IRAQ’s military aggression on the KURDS as excessive, unreasonable and unjustified, particularly in light of the fact that KURDISH blood soaks KIRKUK as it was the KURDS who stood tall against ISIS and refused to allow KIRKUK to fall while the IRAQI military shat full their overalls when ISIS was charging full speed while the KURDS refused to secede. Unfortunately, the U.S. is closely allied with both the IRAQI military and KURDISH forces, which together have driven ISIS out from most of IRAQ but although the battle against the ISIS extremists is not yet over, the dispute with the KURDS has diverted precious resources away from the war on ISIS. In my opinion, negotiations between IRAQI military officials and their KURDISH counterparts under the banner of the U.S. in FISH KHABUR to try to find a settlement for recent disputes and the threat of further military confrontation particularly over the border crossing points was critical to avert a full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the discussions seem to show that both the IRAQI and KURDISH militaries want to avoid a full fledge civil war as they both seem to be inclined to prefer to share in the oil rich jewels of KURDISTAN as opposed to risking the destruction of the entire region to end up winning the civil war but being left with nothing to show.
However, last week’s decision by IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court concluding that the IRAQI constitution did not allow for the secession of any part of the country stressing the preservation of the unity and territorial integrity of IRAQ was a clear blow to the KURDISH dreams for independence. In my opinion, IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision ruling against secession following the Kurdish referendum for independence was highly politicised and part of a wider set of vengeful policies imposed by the IRAQI government or in simple ENGLISH a biased opinion against the KURDS. Unfortunately for the KURDS, now that the operations by the IRAQI government have effectively retaken five oil fields from the KURDISH forces in KIRKUK which has in essence crippled the KURDISH finances as the KURDS depended on revenues from KIRKUK’s oil exports to survive, combined with revenge by the IRAQI government with IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court ruling against the legality of the KURDISH referendum and separation drive, the KURDS are left with very few options in their quest to secede other than negotiations with the IRAQI regime. In my opinion, this week’s IRAQI Kurdish authorities statement that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. That is, in my opinion, the IRAQI constitution as written was supposed to place the KURDS on equal footing as their IRAQI counterparts while in practice the KURDS were treated like second class trailer park trash pieces of shit of dirty whores of dirty dogs. Therefore, in my opinion, the KURDS will no longer accept being treated like second-class citizens in IRAQ such that the KURDS will in essence retake control of their destinies within the IRAQI federal system via a quiet revolution to avert further bloodshed in IRAQ that could risk the complete and utter destruction of the entire KURDISTAN region. In my opinion, to the extent the KURDS are able to leverage the IRAQI constitution to be recognized as equals with the ability to effectively control policy decisions jointly with the IRAQI government, the KURDS will in essence function as a relatively independent province within the IRAQI federation.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN Army under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH now focused on targeting ISIS in DEIR AL-ZOR after letting ISIS withdraw from SYRIA’s border with LEBANON to the eastern province of DEIR AL-ZOR over one month ago. This strategic shift in focus by the SYRIAN Army on ISIS is key to overall peace in the region as the only issue that everybody in the region seems to agree upon is that ISIS needs to be contained to an underground organization without any significant control of land particularly along any major borders. Thus, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, the strikes on ISIS around DEIR AL-ZOR were perfectly timed as ISIS has been losing momentum with recent losses in neighbouring IRAQ and SYRIA while also being hit hard elsewhere in SYRIA by SDF forces. In my opinion, for ISIS, the loss of AL-MAYADEEN is a bigger loss than their imminent defeat in RAQQA City as AL-MAYADEEN is located along the main road to ISIS’s most important IRAQI crossing at ALBUKAMAL. Furthermore, ALBUKAMAL is located directly west of the IRAQI city of AL-QA’IM that is another ISIS stronghold in the AL-ANBAR region that ISIS is desperately attempting to hold. Thus, it is not surprising that the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad stormed the SYRIAN border city of AL-BUKAMAL from 3 directions. In my opinion, the SAA, Hezbollah and Iran’s IRGC made notable progress against ISIS inside the city despite strong resistance from ISIS. In my opinion, ISIS now finds itself in a NO-WIN situation although the ISIS terrorists have ambushed a column of the SAA Forces near AL-KASHMA, south of the city of AL-MAYADEEN whereby at least 10 SAA members were killed and a T-90 battle tank destroyed. In regards to the U.S. backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) advance in the northern part of DEIR AL-ZOR, 34 members of ISIS were killed and a vehicle destroyed while 10 members of the SDF forces were killed, 8 injured and one vehicle destroyed which depicts the realities on the ground whereby ISIS seems to be incurring losses in a ratio of three or four to one such that slowly but surely ISIS continues to loose ground.
In regards to U.S. backed fighters surrounding the Syrian city of RAQQA as they finally ousted the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA, capturing RAQQA represents a major achievement in the battle against ISIS and helps to bring an end to ISIS’s reign of terror trying to create a so-called Caliphate. In my opinion, ISIS has used RAQQA for over three years to stage deadly attacks on the Middle East and further overseas such that capturing RAQQA from ISIS significantly reduces ISIS’s terrorist capabilities in the future. Therefore, the strength of the ISIS terrorists is running out as their defeats thus far in RAQQA have undermined their morale and prevented them from fighting back effectively other than hiding behind innocent civilians as human shields. Unfortunately, the by-product of this liberation of RAQQA from ISIS appears to be the complete destruction of RAQQA that in my opinion can be attributed to the ALLIANCES’s relentless aerial bombardment of RAQQA to compensate for the weaknesses of its SDF forces on the ground. This was evident during victory celebrations by KURDISH forces that felt muted, as there were literally no civilians left in RAQQA such that it was the celebration of the liberation of a ghost town. In my opinion, ISIS is to blame for the complete destruction of RAQQA as with ISIS’s sole remaining technique of hiding behind civilians for cover, there was no other way to liberate RAQQA than via complete destruction of the city, the death and maiming of hundreds of civilians and the displacement of tens of thousands.
In my opinion, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires. However, with reports surfacing this week that the remaining ISIS fighters that were trapped in RAQQA were able to leave under a secret deal with the SDF who gave the remaining ISIS fighters free passage via convoy to leave the liberated city to complete the full transfer of control of RAQQA to SDF forces, it raises questions about whether the U.S. led coalition was about fighting ISIS or about backing SDF forces to takeover SYRIAN territory. In my opinion, the SDF probably did allow the remaining ISIS fighters free passage out of RAQQA in order to maintain the balance of peace in the surrounding areas without further death of all innocent civilians remaining and complete destruction of the remaining parts of RAQQA. However, it does appear that the SDF, that is basically a KURDISH militia armed by the U.S., was given all sorts of powers to occupy territory inside SYRIA given that the U.S. has no business left to justify remaining in Syria now that ISIS has been defeated although this does represent the homeland of SDF forces. In my opinion, this situation in RAQQA clearly depicts the new realities of civil whereby side deals are made with the enemy that satisfy personal, financial and political interests of the dominant side as at the end of the day even the enemy needs to survive while the dominant side looks for reasons for the civil war to subside behind the battle lines in order to minimize retaliatory strikes of psychotic masterminds.
However, as ISIS literally disappears from the face of the map in SYRIA, the question has become whether a race to conquer the oil rich regions could result in a showdown between the international coalitions consisting of the U.S. and SDF forces on the one side and the RUSSIAN and SAA forces on the other. In my opinion, a direct military confrontation is unlikely to take place but the SYRIAN regime is in great need of the region’s oil to boost its struggling economy after the U.S. seized oil fields in RAQQA, the AL-OMAR oil field and a natural gas field in DEIR EZ-ZOR. In my opinion, the realities of the ISIS organization are that ISIS will not disappear completely off the face of the map as they still have quite a bit of amassed wealth such that eventually some sort of ceasefire deal will need to be negotiated with ISIS to contain them to limited restricted areas as opposed to dispersing them across the globe and giving ISIS the opportunity to launch covert terrorist strikes globally.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 273” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace as IRAQI KURDISH referendum resulted in YES win with 92.73% support from the turnout of 72% illustrating the new geopolitical realities whereby the KURDS will no longer accept being treated like second-class citizens in IRAQ such that the KURDS will in essence retake control of their destinies within the IRAQI federal system via a quiet revolution to avert further bloodshed in IRAQ that could risk the complete and utter destruction of the entire KURDISTAN region such that the KURDS will essentially function as a relatively independent province within the IRAQI federation.
Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News: November 19, 2017
www.therockswebmarket.com
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