Monday, August 27, 2018
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Saturday, August 25, 2018
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 313
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 313
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 313” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while focusing on the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby after the U.S. threw its full support behind its ally ISRAEL by voicing concerns over IRAN’s involvement across SYRIA, LEBANON, YEMEN and IRAQ as well as IRAN’s continued ballistic missile testing, in violation of U.N. resolutions, Ahmad Khatami and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei felt it necessary to blast the U.S., prompting U.S. President Donald Trump to state that If IRAN wants to meet, the U.S. will meet IRAN but if IRAN does not want to meet, the U.S. could not care less, triggering Ahmad Khatami to warn the U.S. that if the U.S. attacks IRAN, U.S. allies in the region including ISRAEL would be targeted, such that IRAN will most likely retaliate with increased attacks on U.S. interests in the MIDDLE EAST along with intensified interference in all MIDDLE EASTERN conflicts across SYRIA, LEBANON, YEMEN and IRAQ, while IRAN will likely hold back for the moment from a war with ISRAEL because of dire economic circumstances triggered by U.S. sanctions with inflation soaring, IRANIANS hoarding goods and IRANIAN protests increasing around IRAN, as sure signs of frustration and anger of ordinary model law-abiding IRANIAN citizens with IRAN’s excessive spending on foreign campaigns in excess of $ 6 billion per year to finance the SYRIAN regime alone, while IRAQI protests are not likely to pose serious threat to IRANIAN regime because sporadic and disorganized in nature while IRANIAN government has powerful repressive capacity to silence dissent and opposition, as at end of the day it will be Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s way.
TURKEY News
As a friendly reminder, TURKEY has been on the defense ever since an internal military “Coup D’état” failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’état”, Turkey’s President Recap Typo Endogen declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recap Typo Endogen and his governing AKP focused their attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say that the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants.
During the week ending on Sunday, August 26, 2018, the focus in TURKEY seemed to shift to the TURKISH struggling economy, largely attributable to a lack of confidence by foreign investors, due largely to TURKEY’s repressive crackdown measures on all opposition movements. It is important to note that, three weeks ago, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan allowed TURKEY’s two-year state of emergency to come to an end but as trials of dissidents and journalists continue, human rights campaigners continue to pressure TURKEY to do more to reverse a suffocating crackdown on free speech. Critics claim that the state of emergency, in place since the failed “Coup D’État” in July of 2016 that killed 250 people and wounded 1,400, has been used to detain opponents of the governing AKP for lengthy periods of time without trial to intimidate dissidents and to prosecute media outlets. That is, more than 120,000 people in the police, military, academia, media and civil service have been detained or dismissed from their jobs over their alleged links to Fethullah Gulen who is the exiled TURKISH preacher based now in the U.S. who TURKEY blames as the brains behind the operations for the failed “Coup D’État”.
However, the behaviours of TURKEY’s governing AKP seem to be taking their toll on the TURKISH economy as turbulent politics have resulted in economic turmoil whereby the sliding TURKISH Lira has set-off alarm bells across TURKEY as businesses struggle to cope with the financial impacts of a declining TURKISH Lira. It is important to note that the economic challenges TURKEY is facing deepened this week after the TURKISH Lira plunged over 5% in the last couple of weeks after the TURKISH central bank shocked the financial markets by keeping interest rates on hold. This week, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued to blame the rest of the world for waging an economic war against TURKEY while most reputable economists would tend to agree that the TURKISH government has forced their central banks to follow counterproductive, if not destructive, economic policies. It is important to note that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seemed to force the TURKISH central bank into keeping interest rates so low, that inflation has risen to around 16%, when TURKISH monetary policies should be operating to stabilizing inflation at around 5%. Thus, TURKEY seems to prefer to put its TURKISH pride first by ignoring U.S. President Donald Trump’s request to free the detained American Pastor, Andrew Craig Brunson, which could quickly end TURKEY’s Lira weakening crisis due to the effects of U.S. imposed sanctions.
In regards to the U.S. demands to release American Pastor, Andrew Craig Brunson, who has been held for nearly two years in TURKEY in a case that has strained relations between the two countries, TURKISH officials met with U.S. officials for high level meetings in Washington a couple of weeks ago without an apparent resolution. As a friendly reminder, Pastor Andrew Brunson from North Carolina went before a TURKISH judge to enter his plea of not guilty to any wrongdoing although he currently faces up to 35 years in prison. In summary, Pastor Andrew Brunson was detained in the aftermath of the 2016 failed “Coup D’État” attempt in TURKEY for alleged links to the outlawed KURDISH PKK as well as the Fethullahist Terrorist Organization (FETO) led by U.S. based cleric Fethullah Gulen. Ironically, Pastor Andrew Brunson clearly stated that he does not accept any of the allegations or accusations as he did not engage in any illegal activities and did not have any relations with anyone engaged in such activities as a Christian pastor whose aims are different from both the KURDISH PKK and FETO. Thus, U.S. President Donald Trump has thrown his full support behind the release of Pastor Andrew Brunson culminating with U.S. President Donald Trump being unhappy with TURKEY’s decision not to release him, resulting in sanctions formally imposed last week. However, TURKEY’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues to ignore the U.S. request although the TURKISH Lira has dropped steadily since the U.S. ordered tariffs on TURKEY in retaliation for the detention of Pastor Andrew Brunson.
As a friendly reminder, in an unusual show of solidarity with IRAN, Turkish President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan told his IRANIAN counterpart Hassan Rouhani that he found the U.S. decision to withdraw from a 2015 nuclear deal with IRAN to be wrong. In a telephone call, TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan told IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani that TURKEY wanted the deal to be maintained, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would pull out from the deal. Meanwhile, this week, ISRAEL and TURKEY relations appeared to be soured as TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated his resolve to advance the interests of TURKEY with the MUSLIM world including IRAN and the PALESTINIANS. Therefore, ISRAEL and TURKEY once again appear to be on a collision course that is not GAZA or the peace process with the PALESTINIANS but rather ISRAEL and TURKEY relations appeared to be soured after TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blasted the new ISRAELI nation state law as embodying the spirit of Hitler. Not surprisingly, as ISRAELI and TURKISH relations are strained, so too are the relations between TURKEY and the west, as the U.S. has just recently placed two TURKISH ministers on the U.S. Global Magnitsky list.
Therefore, last week U.S. President Donald Trump signed into law a defense policy, which will prohibit the U.S. from selling TURKEY the stealth fighter F-35 jets amid increasing tensions between the U.S. and TURKEY. Thus, the massive defense spending and policy bill prohibits selling the F-35 jets to TURKEY for 90 days pending a U.S. Pentagon report on the relations between TURKEY and the U.S. Hence, TURKEY appears to be looking elsewhere for new strategic alliances as it is blatantly obvious that TURKEY and the U.S. have not been strategic partners for quite some time. Obviously, the RUSSIANS represent a viable alternative for TURKEY because RUSSIA’s Gazprom is currently building natural gas pipelines in TURKEY, such that RUSSIA has a vested interest for the project to come to full fruition such that the RUSSIANS will likely provide assistance to TURKEY if it looks like TURKEY cannot finance the natural gas pipelines on its own. Alternatively, the EUROPEANS may be forced to become a strategic partner with TURKEY due to TURKEY’s location and TURKEY’s effective barrier against a migrant tidal wave into EUROPE while almost all of the impacts of the U.S. sanctions on TURKEY are felt by EUROPE as E.U. banks are more exposed to TURKEY than U.S. banks. Then, there is the possibility for CHINA to step-in as CHINA is interested in committing TURKEY into CHINA’s Belt and Road initiative at a very strategic geographic point on the Eurasian landmass. Lastly, there is QATAR who already reacted last week by pledging to invest $15 billion in TURKISH financial markets and banks, as QATAR appears to have close ties with TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has a close personal relationship to the emir, Tamim bin Hamad al Thani. Furthermore, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is believed to keep a large proportion of his own personal assets in QATAR banks.
IRAQ News
As a friendly reminder, IRAQI Kurdish authorities stated that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession. However, the KURDS also stated that this decision must become a basis for starting an inclusive national dialogue between KURDISTAN and IRAQ to resolve all disputes through implementation of all constitutional articles and in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution because all elements of the IRAQI Constitution must be respected in order to secure the unity of IRAQ. Meanwhile, KURDISH politicians continued to boycott IRAQI parliament with relentless protests at the reduction of KURDISTAN’s share from 17% to nearly 12% of the IRAQI parliament approved 2018 budget. Further, highlighting the division was IRAQ accusing KURDISTAN of corruption in handling oil exports from fields under the KURDISTAN region’s control while IRAQ also went so far as to suggest that revenues could be sufficient to satisfy KURDISTAN expenses otherwise which the KURDISTAN government obviously refuted.
As a friendly reminder, the only thing that appears certain after the May 12, 2018 election is that the voters have rejected both IRAN and the U.S. consisting of the two outside powers that have dominated IRAQI internal affairs since 2003 such that the election of a coalition headed by the populist SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr is a sign that a growing number of IRAQIS are eager to reassert their identity and independence. Thus, all the IRAQI election did was establish a framework for the real political negotiations that are currently ongoing and will likely take months to complete. However, there are two obvious potential outcomes from IRAQI political party negotiations with substantial regional and international consequences. That is, the first potential outcome is a coalition headed by Moqtada al-Sadr that probably means a diminishing U.S. presence in IRAQ combined with an IRAQI government that is independent of IRAN’s influence while reintegrating an independent and sovereign IRAQ into the Arab world. Conversely, the second potential outcome is a coalition headed by the pro-IRANIAN Fatah Alliance representing the SHIITE militias along with parties loyal to former Prime Ministers Haider al-Abadi and Nouri al-Maliki as well as smaller groups such as the Kurdistan Coalition that would result in an overtly pro-IRANIAN government. Nonetheless, IRAQ’s parliament ordered a full recount of IRAQ’s recent parliamentary election that resulted in a shock victory for SHIA leader Muqtada al-Sadr. Furthermore, last week, in spite of dramatic differences, the three parties that gained the most votes in IRAQ’s May 12, 2018 parliamentary elections agreed to work together to form a new IRAQI government. Ironically, the driving force behind this odd alliance is SHIA cleric Muqtada al-Sadr who seems to be ready, willing and able to work with Hadi al-Amiri, head of the most powerful IRAN-backed SHIA militia and outgoing president Haidar al-Abadi, the U.S. choice to head the new IRAQI government.
Meanwhile this week, uncertainty appeared to be looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, while the election results still hang in the backdrop without any conclusive outcome other that the likelihood of a coalition government amongst the three major political players as discussed above. Further complicating the situation in IRAQ is the U.S. re-imposing sanctions against IRAN as IRAQ finds itself caught in the crossfire between its key allies of IRAN and the U.S. such that IRAQ’s economy could suffer the worst economic collateral damage from the U.S. sanctions on IRAN. Ironically, as soon as the most recent round of U.S. sanctions hit IRAN, current IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al Abadi stated that IRAQ would reluctantly comply but one week later, reality has hit IRAQ whereby many IRAQIS are pushing the IRAQI government to maintain trade relations with IRAN. Thus, IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al Abadi had no choice this week but to formally request that the U.S. provide certain exemptions to IRAQ on specific critical IRANIAN goods. That is, IRAQ formally stated that a delegation would travel to Washington to ask for specific exemptions in applying the U.S. sanctions in IRAN although IRAQ did not state when that specific trip would occur. It is important to note that an official in the U.S. State Department clarified that IRAQ is a friend and important strategic partner of the U.S. such that the U.S. is committed to insuring IRAQI stability and prosperity. However, the official also stated that the U.S. has given the same message to all countries around the world that U.S. President Donald Trump is fully committed to enforcing all sanctions.
SYRIA News
As a friendly reminder, the current SYRIAN government under the control of President Bashar al-Assad stated that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA, which was liberated from ISIS by the U.S. backed and KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In particular, the existing SYRIAN regime stated that both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime. Meanwhile, fighting has continued sporadically in EASTERN GHOUTA as RUSSIA formally stated that the massive RUSSIAN backed SYRIAN military offensive is almost over with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels now cornered in just a single town after being forced to abandon the greater part of the EASTERN GHOUTA region. Meanwhile several weeks ago, dozens of people were killed, including children, during the alleged toxic bombing, using chemical weapons, of rebel-held DOUMA, in the EASTERN GHOUTA region. Not surprisingly, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the U.S. military, in conjunction with France and the United Kingdom, to launch strikes on SYRIA in retaliation for the suspected chemical weapons attack by the SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad. However, U.S., British and French missile strikes had a limited impact on SYRIAN president Bashar al-Assad’s ability to carry out chemical weapons attacks in the future even though U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted Mission Accomplished after the attacks claiming that they had successfully struck the heart of SYRIA’s chemical weapons program.
However, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN allies continued to focus their attention on the southern province of DERAA where they have intensified their bombing campaign after a ceasefire deal between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels and the Russians broke down. Meanwhile, SAA government forces stated that they have retaken a town that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war that engulfed SYRIA for over seven years now as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war. It is important to note that under an agreement reached with Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels, the SYRIAN government stated that the rebels would hand over their heavy and medium weapons while those who agree to the accord will be allowed to remain in the region while those who refuse reconciliation will be evacuated. However, the SAA campaign intensified as QUNEITRA, the heavily populated city that lies northwest of DERAA, representing the largest sector still held by rebels in the Golan Heights, came under attack as the SAA launched intensive aerial strikes on the city. It is important to note that dozens of civilian casualties were recorded as the SAA pushed forward with a RUSSIAN-backed offensive in the area. Thus, the SAA forces were able to raise the SYRIAN flag in the largely ruined city of QUNEITRA as the SYRIAN government tightens its hold on the SYRIAN section of the Golan Heights which is a strategic territory bordering both ISRAEL and JORDAN.
Meanwhile, the tensions between IRAN and ISRAEL seem to have continued to escalate again after ISRAELI airstrikes targeted IRANIAN military infrastructure inside SYRIA several weeks ago. Obviously, IRAN condemned the wave of ISRAELI air strikes in SYRIA and clearly stated that these attacks by ISRAEL represent a blatant violation of SYRIA’s sovereignty such that IRAN has backed SYRIA’s right to defend itself against ISRAEL. It is important to note that the strikes were the heaviest strikes carried out by ISRAEL on SYRIA in decades that came right after twenty rockets were fired at ISRAELI military positions in the occupied Golan Heights of SYRIA. It is no secret that the strikes hurt IRAN that has deployed hundreds of troops inside SYRIA as military advisers to the SYRIAN governments Syrian Arab Army (SAA) while thousands of IRANIAN militia armed, trained and financed by IRAN have also been battling SYRIAN rebel forces alongside the SAA. ISRAEL stated that ISRAELI fighter jets struck almost IRAN’s entire military infrastructure inside Syria consisting of some 70 targets in ISRAELS biggest assault since SYRIA’s civil war commenced in 2011.
Subsequently, this week, the tone escalated between ISRAEL and IRAN, as ISRAEL continues to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to be adamant that the IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, the recent announcement by RUSSIA that IRANIAN forces pulled back from the Golan Heights seemed to be a step in the right direction. However, this week tensions seemed to have risen once again as IRANIAN’s were fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency which has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. The new sanctions target IRANIAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN’s auto sector although the toughest sanctions targeting oil exports will not take effect for another four months. However, IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani clearly stated that IRAN would not let the enemy bring IRAN to its knees such that if the enemy thinks they will defeat IRAN, they will take their hope to the grave with them.
Hence, IRANIAN cleric, Ahmad Khatami stepped in and told worshippers attending EID prayers in TEHRAN, IRAN that U.S. President Donald Trump’s offer for direct talks with leaders in IRAN was not acceptable. Ahmad Khatami further clarified that the costs of a possible U.S. war on IRAN would definitely be heavy for the U.S. as any aggression against IRAN will inflict enormous costs on both the U.S. and its ally ISRAEL that Ahmad Khatami referred to as the Zionist regime. Ahmad Khatami also warned the U.S. that if the U.S. attacks IRAN, U.S. allies in the region including ISRAEL would be targeted. Thus, Ahmad Khatami laid out the IRANIAN perspective that the U.S. is attempting to impose its will over the IRAN so this approach is not negotiation but dictatorship such that IRAN will stand up against U.S. dictatorship. As a result, ISRAELI forces have already carried out several airstrikes over parts of SYRIA, killing a number of IRANIAN and SYRIAN troops. However, some of the air strikes were in response to IRANIAN armed drones penetrating ISRAELI air space. Ironically, despite verbal threats, IRAN has thus far not struck back directly at ISRAEL as IRAN seems to be holding back for the moment from getting into an all-out war with ISRAEL that has one of the most elite military forces in the region. IRAN seems to be holding back for the moment because IRAN is in the middle of a currency crisis created by U.S. sanctions combined with years of economic mismanagement on the part of the IRANIAN government.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the KURDS as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis.
Meanwhile, this week’s focus in TURKEY seemed to shift to the TURKISH struggling economy, largely attributable to a lack of confidence by foreign investors, due largely to TURKEY’s repressive crackdown measures on all opposition movements. In my opinion, over the last two years, TURKEY has been radically transformed with emergency measures used to consolidate authoritarian powers, silence opposition voices and take away basic human rights and civil liberties. However, the behaviours of TURKEY’s governing AKP seem to be taking their toll on the TURKISH economy as turbulent politics have resulted in economic turmoil whereby the sliding TURKISH Lira has set-off alarm bells across TURKEY as businesses struggle to cope with the financial impacts of a declining TURKISH Lira. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blaming the rest of the world for waging an economic war against TURKEY while most reputable economists would tend to agree that the TURKISH government has forced their central banks to follow counterproductive, if not destructive, economic policies is a sure sign that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is living in a delusional reality.
In my opinion, the underlying problem is that TURKISH banks and companies borrowed a lot of U.S. dollars, as TURKISH foreign currency debt represents about 30% of TURKEY’s GDP, such that TURKEY is now struggling to pay down the debt as the TURKISH Lira is falling. In my opinion, TURKEY’s economy is struggling in large part due to the TURKISH Lira losing almost 28% of its value against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year. In my opinion, there are a slew of reasons dissuading investors from TURKEY, but at the end of the day, many investors continue to try to liquidate their TURKISH Lira given that it has been dropping fast since the beginning of the year. Thus, the solution from my point-of-view is quite obvious that TURKEY needs to raise interest rates in order to counter its problems of high inflation and a declining TURKISH Lira while its economy should be able to bear the brunt of higher interest rates without significant drops in current production levels. In my opinion, a quick fix that TURKEY has at its disposal is to respect U.S. President Donald Trump’s request to free the detained American Pastor, Andrew Craig Brunson, which could quickly end TURKEY’s Lira weakening crisis due to the effects of U.S. imposed sanctions while TURKEY outright refuses to do so out of TURKISH pride.
In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump once again showed a strong backbone by making good on his warnings to TURKEY that would be punitive consequences if TURKEY does not reverse the charges or acquits Pastor Andrew Brunson on all accusations of espionage and aiding of terrorist groups. In my opinion, President Donald Trump’s assessment is accurate that Pastor Andrew Brunson is a fine gentleman and Christian leader who is being persecuted in TURKEY for no reason whereby TURKEY calls Pastor Andrew Brunson a Spy although there is no substantive evidence such that Pastor Andrew Brunson should be allowed to return home to his beautiful family where he belongs. Thus, in my opinion, it is surprising that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has responded by stating that TURKEY will boycott U.S. electronic products as a result of the sanctions imposed by the U.S. However, this illustrates how President Recep Tayyip Erdogan truly believes that the U.S. is trying to bring TURKEY to its knees economically, while Pastor Andrew Brunson is being used as a smoke screen, although the U.S. truly does not see any substantive evidence that Pastor Andrew Brunson has done anything wrong. Hence, TURKEY actually seems to believe that what is deemed circumstantial evidence in international courts of law, and is generally ignored, is adequate for TURKEY to formally lay charges, prosecute and incarcerate accordingly. Unfortunately, TURKEY’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues to ignore the U.S. request although the TURKISH Lira has dropped steadily since the U.S. ordered tariffs on TURKEY in retaliation for the detention of Pastor Andrew Brunson.
As a friendly reminder, in an unusual show of solidarity with IRAN whereby Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his IRANIAN counterpart Hassan Rouhani that he found the U.S. decision to withdraw from a 2015 nuclear deal with IRAN to be wrong, I am not surprised as TURKEY recognizes that the deal was the product of more than a decade of diplomacy whereby the final nuclear agreement signed in July of 2015 by the U.S., France, Britain, Germany, Russia, China and Iran represents a milestone that the U.S. has unilaterally decided to withdraw from. Not surprisingly, among the few nations to welcome U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision were ISRAEL and SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN’s arch-nemesis in the Middle East. However, ISRAEL and TURKEY relations continued to appear to be soured this week after TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blasted the new ISRAELI nation state law as embodying the spirit of Hitler. In my opinion, the ISRAELI nation state law, which officially recognises ISRAEL as the home for Jewish people, obviously provoked anger amongst ARAB leaders, who expressed their concerns over the possibilities now for discrimination against ARAB citizens while accusing ISRAEL of trying to create an apartheid state.
In my opinion, it is not surprising to see that as ISRAELI and TURKISH relations are strained, so too are the relations between TURKEY and the west, as the U.S. has just recently placed two TURKISH ministers on the U.S. Global Magnitsky list that aims to target the worst bullies and thieves around the world. Hence, I was not surprised to see U.S. President Donald Trump signing into law a defense policy, which will prohibit the U.S. from selling TURKEY the stealth fighter F-35 jets amid increasing tensions between the U.S. and TURKEY, including an impact assessment report expected to focus on U.S. military operations from the TURKISH Incirlik Air Base, where the U.S. also operates a tactical nuclear storage site, in order to assess the risks presented by TURKEY purchasing the S-400 missile defense system from RUSSIA. In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump hit the nail on the head with his concern that if RUSSIA provides the S-400 missile defense system to TURKEY, while TURKEY also flies the F-35 jets, the capabilities and vulnerabilities of the F-35 jets would most probably be shared with RUSSIA and thus give RUSSIA access to U.S. intelligence information in substance, although there would obviously be a confidentiality agreement in fact. In my opinion, ISRAELI officials have obviously voiced their concern over TURKEY’s F-35 jet purchases, as ISRAEL would obviously prefer to be the only country in the Middle East with the F-35 jets to keep its competitive military edge, as there is an obvious fear of the F-35 jets capabilities being leaked to countries such as IRAN, PALESTINE or SYRIA.
Hence, I was not surprised to see TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan floating alternatives for new strategic partnerships, as it is blatantly obvious that TURKEY and the U.S. have not been strategic partners for quite some time. In my opinion, the RUSSIANS represent a viable alternative for TURKEY because RUSSIA’s Gazprom is currently building natural gas pipelines in TURKEY albeit their historical rocky relationship. That is, the relationship between TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan and RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin has been on the rocks before when RUSSIA blamed TURKEY for helping to fund ISIS in SYRIA by buying cheap oil that ISIS stole while TURKEY shot down a RUSSIAN plane killing its pilot. In regards to increasing TURKISH strategic partnerships with the E.U., TURKEY is already a low cost, weak currency, manufacturing center for industrial Europe such that the European Central Bank might be forced to conduct operations that essentially increase the value of the TURKISH Lira. In regards to CHINA stepping-in as CHINA is interested in committing TURKEY into CHINA’s Belt and Road initiative at a very strategic geographic point on the Eurasian landmass, TURKEY owns commercial real estate, steel and energy assets that could interest CHINA except that CHINA is known for demanding discounted prices for bail-out financing. In regards to QATAR who already reacted last week by pledging to invest $ 15 billion in TURKISH financial markets and banks, I believe that QATAR will emerge as TURKEY’s preferred new strategic partner due to the close ties TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan maintains with the emir of QATAR, Tamim bin Hamad al Thani. Furthermore, TURKEY maintains troops in QATAR as a defense against Saudi Arabia such that QATAR is most likely to provide financial support to TURKEY.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
As a friendly reminder, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. In my opinion, KURDISH politicians continuing with their total withdrawal from the IRAQI political arena is not surprising after the IRAQI parliament approved the 2018 budget with a reduced share for the KURDISH autonomous region from 17% of the IRAQI budget as had been the case since the new IRAQI government was formed after the U.S. led invasion to the proportion of the KURDISH population that the IRAQI government estimates to be at 12.6%. In my opinion, the 17% demand by the KURDISH government is reasonable as at least 17% of IRAQI soil is covered with KURDISH blood such that the KURDS earned their 17% share through blood, sweat and tears as the KURDISH forces held back ISIS forces from conquering IRAQ in its entirety while IRAQI forces were scrambling and nowhere to be seen.
As a friendly reminder, in regards to the analysis of IRAQI election results, it is certain that the IRAQI political structure remains complicated with the biggest number of parliamentary seats of 54 won by the coalition headed by the populist SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, a coalition of pro-IRANIAN Shiite parties finishing second with 47 seats while the block led by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, the U.S. favourite, finishing closely with 42 seats. In my opinion, either a coalition under Moqtada al-Sadr will emerge or a pro-IRANIAN coalition under the Fatah Alliance will emerge such that either way, it seems that the U.S. presence in IRAQ will likely diminish over time. In my opinion, many Americans still remember Moqtada al-Sadr from the post-invasion period of IRAQI history when he commanded a militia that attacked U.S. forces and committed atrocities against the SUNNI population. Ironically, Moqtada al-Sadr never reconciled with the U.S. while contemporaneously having a bitter falling out with IRAN. However, in my opinion, Moqtada al-Sadr seems to now be repositioning IRAQ for closer relations with SAUDI ARABIA that once wrote-off IRAQ as a victory for IRAN while now once again, the SAUDI Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, seems to be courting IRAQI’s SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. In my opinion, last weeks ordering by IRAQ’s parliament of a full recount of IRAQ’s recent parliamentary election that resulted in a shock victory for SHIA leader Muqtada al-Sadr is not surprising as nobody ever expected him to win.
In regards to this weeks uncertainty looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, while the election results still hang in the backdrop without any conclusive outcome other that the likelihood of a coalition government amongst the three major political players as discussed above, it is obvious that IRAQ now finds itself once again with a weak government at the moment when IRAQ needs to be as strong as possible to cope with the potential for an ISIS re-emergence. In my opinion, poor governance, lack of public infrastructure and high levels of corruption, particularly in poor SUNNI areas, is helping to fuel ISIS’s objectives of a comeback after its crushing defeat. Unfortunately for IRAQ, the U.S. sanctions on IRAN seem to be arriving at the worst possible time, as the embargo on its IRANIAN neighbour could hit jobs in IRAQ and cut off a crucial source of relatively cheap imports into IRAQ.
In my opinion, with 80% of the products on the market in IRAQ being IRANIAN made, if the border closes, it will be an economic crisis for IRAQ. Thus, I was not surprised to see many IRAQIS this week pushing the IRAQI government to maintain trade relations with IRAN because IRAQ, which shares around 1,450 kilometers of border with IRAN, will be badly hurt by the IRANIAN sanctions. In my opinion, Iraq relies on IRAN for gas supplies, electricity, water and food such that the U.S. has placed IRAQ in a loser position as by attempting to cut-off the head of IRAN, the U.S. cut-off the waist of IRAQ such that although IRAN suffers most without its head, IRAQ is unable to reproduce without its waist. Therefore, in my opinion, IRAQ has no choice but to violate sanctions as IRAQ has been placed in a compromising position with its dependence on IRAN to fuel the IRAQI economy.
Hence, I was not surprised to see IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al Abadi formally request that the U.S. provide certain exemptions to IRAQ on specific critical IRANIAN goods. In my opinion, IRAQ is in a difficult position because IRAQ imports crucial supplies from its ally IRAN but IRAQ’s other major ally is the U.S. that provides security assistance and training. Thus, the formal request by IRAQ represents an important change in political tactics for IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi as he initially stated that IRAQ would respect all of the U.S. sanctions except that the uproar by the IRAQI mass population already feeling the impacts of the sanctions could not be ignored. In my opinion, it is not surprising to see the IRANIAN government planning to ask the U.S. for certain waivers as otherwise IRAQ will find itself crippled by the sanctions, triggering a surge in black market activities, which is far worse as the IRAQI government will find itself with liquidity issues as the underground economy kicks-in depriving the IRAQI government of taxes and duties on declared merchandise. In my opinion, IRAQ will certainly experience shortages of key products if IRAQ complies with all of the U.S. sanctions that could lead to political turmoil at a critical crossroads period in IRAQI politics.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, the war in SYRIA entered into a dangerous phase when EASTERN GHOUTA was under attack by SYRIAN Regime forces on so-called SYRIAN rebel terrorists is a human tragedy that unfolded before everybodies eyes such that in my opinion the international community cannot let things keep going in this horrendous fashion. As a friendly reminder, in some of the worst bombardment campaigns of the war in SYRIA, over one thousand people have been killed and over five thousand have been injured in EASTERN GHOUTA, a Free Syrian Army (FSA) held enclave that is home to about 400,000 people that borders the SYRIAN capital of Damascus. In my opinion, President Bashar al-Assad wants to recapture EASTERN GHOUTA because it is so close to DAMASCUS, the capital of SYRIA, that it is possible for rebels to fire mortars into the heart of the capital. In my opinion, the alleged toxic bombing several weeks ago, using chemical weapons, of rebel-held DOUMA, in the EASTERN GHOUTA region killing dozens of people, including children, was deplorable to say the least. Therefore, U.S. President Donald Trump was forced to order the U.S. military, in conjunction with France and the United Kingdom, to launch strikes on SYRIA in retaliation for the suspected chemical weapons attack by the SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad.
In regards to the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN ally focusing their attention on the southern province of DERAA where they have intensified their bombing campaign after a ceasefire deal between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels and the Russians broke down, I am not surprised to see the intensification of air raids as SYRIAN troops have vowed to advance steadily to recapture lost territory until such time as a ceasefire agreement is negotiated. Thus, I was not surprised when SAA government forces retook a town that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war. Thus, in my opinion, the focus of the SAA campaign that intensified on QUNEITRA, the heavily populated city that lies northwest of DERAA, representing the largest sector still held by rebels in the Golan Heights, is not surprising. Thus, a RUSSIAN brokered deal now allows the return of SAA brigades that existed before the conflict began in 2011 to where they were stationed near the demilitarized zone although there have been no signs of significant deployment of SYRIAN army troops so far. In my opinion, the Israeli government will not stop the SAA army presence in QUNEITRA as long as it keeps away from the demilitarized zone but ISRAEL will continue to attack along it’s frontier with SYRIA and elsewhere in SYRIA where it suspects IRANIAN-backed forces are stationed.
Meanwhile, in regards to this week’s escalation of tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN, I am not surprised to see ISRAEL continuing to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. In my opinion, ISRAEL will not back down from its position that IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, last week’s announcement by RUSSIA that IRANIAN forces have pulled back from the Golan Heights should be welcomed as a positive development although ISRAEL clearly stated that such a pull back is insufficient with no compromises or concessions from ISRAEL’s position of a complete withdrawal being necessary. In my opinion, this week tensions have obviously risen once again since IRANIAN’s were fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency which has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. The new sanctions that target IRANIAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN’s auto sector that took effect seem to reflect the U.S. belief that IRAN will eventually surrender via the pressure tactics of sanctions. However, in my opinion IRAN’s pride runs through the veins of a majority of IRANIANS who would prefer to eat sand and drink sewage water before conceding to U.S. pressure tactics via sanctions.
Hence, I was not surprised to see IRANIAN cleric, Ahmad Khatami step in and tell worshippers attending EID prayers in TEHRAN, IRAN that U.S. President Donald Trump’s offer for direct talks with leaders in IRAN was not acceptable. IRAN’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has also publicly rejected U.S. President Donald Trump’s offer of unconditional talks on a new nuclear deal, prompting U.S. President Donald Trump to state that If IRAN wants to meet, the U.S. will meet IRAN but if IRAN does not want to meet, the U.S. could not care less. In my opinion, after the U.S. threw its full support behind its ally ISRAEL by voicing concerns over IRAN’s engagement in SYRIA, IRAN’s involvement in the regional affairs across LEBANON, SYRIA, YEMEN and IRAQ as well as IRAN’s continued ballistic missile testing, in violation of U.N. resolutions, Ahmad Khatami and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei felt it necessary to blast the U.S. accordingly. In regards to Ahmad Khatami warning the U.S. that if the U.S. attacks IRAN, U.S. allies in the region including ISRAEL would be targeted, I believe that IRAN will retaliate with increased attacks on U.S. interests in the MIDDLE EAST along with intensified interference in all MIDDLE EASTERN conflicts across LEBANON, SYRIA, YEMEN and IRAQ. In my opinion, IRAN seems to be holding back for the moment from a war with ISRAEL because of dire economic circumstances triggered by the U.S. sanctions with inflation soaring, IRANIANS hoarding goods and gold as well as IRANIAN protests increasing around IRAN, as sure signs of the frustration and anger of ordinary model law-abiding IRANIAN citizens. Furthermore, many IRANIANS are angered with IRAN’s excessive spending on foreign campaigns as the United Nations estimates that IRAN has spent in excess of $ 6 billion per year to finance the SYRIAN regime alone. However, in my opinion, the IRAQI protests are not likely to pose a serious threat to the IRANIAN regime because the protests are sporadic and disorganized in nature while the IRANIAN government has a powerful repressive capacity to silence dissent and opposition.
In my opinion, the current situation in the Middle East depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War that would likely be triggered by a direct ISRAEL and IRAN conflict, such that all leaders across the globe must avoid the temptation to look away but rather should increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, minimize civilian casualties, prevent the further use of chemical weapons and alleviate the humanitarian crisis from a civil war spiralling out of control with no end in sight, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the Middle East. That being said, the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby after the U.S. threw its full support behind its ally ISRAEL by voicing concerns over IRAN’s engagement in SYRIA, IRAN’s involvement in the regional affairs across LEBANON, SYRIA, YEMEN and IRAQ as well as IRAN’s continued ballistic missile testing, in violation of U.N. resolutions, Ahmad Khatami and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei felt it necessary to blast the U.S. accordingly, prompting U.S. President Donald Trump to state that If IRAN wants to meet, the U.S. will meet IRAN but if IRAN does not want to meet, the U.S. could not care less, triggering Ahmad Khatami to warn the U.S. that if the U.S. attacks IRAN, U.S. allies in the region including ISRAEL would be targeted, such that IRAN will most likely retaliate with increased attacks on U.S. interests in the MIDDLE EAST along with intensified interference in all MIDDLE EASTERN conflicts across LEBANON, SYRIA, YEMEN and IRAQ, while IRAN will likely hold back for the moment from a war with ISRAEL because of dire economic circumstances triggered by the U.S. sanctions with inflation soaring, IRANIANS hoarding goods and gold as well as IRANIAN protests increasing around IRAN, as sure signs of the frustration and anger of ordinary model law-abiding IRANIAN citizens, albeit many IRANIANS angered with IRAN’s excessive spending on foreign campaigns in excess of $ 6 billion per year to finance the SYRIAN regime alone, while the IRAQI protests are not likely to pose a serious threat to the IRANIAN regime because the protests are sporadic and disorganized in nature while the IRANIAN government has a powerful repressive capacity to silence dissent and opposition.
In my opinion, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, although ISIS was literally disappearing from the face of the map in SYRIA, new showdowns between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) only serves to fuel the re-emergence of ISIS as a dangerous player in SYRIA. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS. Thus, in my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and utter madness.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 313” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while focusing on the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby after the U.S. threw its full support behind its ally ISRAEL by voicing concerns over IRAN’s involvement across SYRIA, LEBANON, YEMEN and IRAQ as well as IRAN’s continued ballistic missile testing, in violation of U.N. resolutions, Ahmad Khatami and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei felt it necessary to blast the U.S., prompting U.S. President Donald Trump to state that If IRAN wants to meet, the U.S. will meet IRAN but if IRAN does not want to meet, the U.S. could not care less, triggering Ahmad Khatami to warn the U.S. that if the U.S. attacks IRAN, U.S. allies in the region including ISRAEL would be targeted, such that IRAN will most likely retaliate with increased attacks on U.S. interests in the MIDDLE EAST along with intensified interference in all MIDDLE EASTERN conflicts across SYRIA, LEBANON, YEMEN and IRAQ, while IRAN will likely hold back for the moment from a war with ISRAEL because of dire economic circumstances triggered by U.S. sanctions with inflation soaring, IRANIANS hoarding goods and IRANIAN protests increasing around IRAN, as sure signs of frustration and anger of ordinary model law-abiding IRANIAN citizens with IRAN’s excessive spending on foreign campaigns in excess of $ 6 billion per year to finance the SYRIAN regime alone, while IRAQI protests are not likely to pose serious threat to IRANIAN regime because sporadic and disorganized in nature while IRANIAN government has powerful repressive capacity to silence dissent and opposition, as at end of the day it will be Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s way.
Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:
August 26, 2018
Friday, August 24, 2018
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