Saturday, May 27, 2017
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 248
During the week ending on Sunday, May 28, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants. Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKEY blocked AUSTRIA from formally entering into the NATO cooperation with more than 40 partner countries in what is emerging as a diplomatic spat between TURKEY and AUSTRIA. Ironically, AUSTRIA has been prevented from taking part in NATO exercises or future NATO operations despite the fact that AUSTRIA has over 400 troops serving alongside NATO forces in KOSOVO. AUSTRIA accused TURKEY of endangering the security interests of EUROPE and branded TURKEY’s actions as irresponsible as the TURKISH government is believed to be acting in retaliation for AUSTRIAN moves to block TURKEY from joining the EU. Obviously, the Austrian defence minister, Hans-Peter Doskozil strongly condemned TURKEY's course of action in NATO as irresponsible behaviour against AUSTRIA that further strengthens AUSTRIA’s position that TURKEY is very far from being part of the EU and that TURKEY is endangering the security interests of Europe by blocking AUSTRIA’s ascension that will have long-term consequences on AUSTRIAN peace missions particularly in the Western Balkans.
Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and US-led ALLIANCE forces continued with their offensive against ISIS on MOSUL as IRAQI and ALLIED forces managed to push ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces appear to have liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety. As a friendly reminder, MOSUL is divided by the Tigris River with both east and west sides respectively making up about half of the population of MOSUL. Elite ALLIANCE forces managed to fight through an elaborate defense system formed by ISIS over the past two years, that kept ALLIANCE forces out while contemporaneously keeping the residents of MOSUL trapped in as captives, by recapturing east MOSUL in its entirety while being at the cusp of controlling west MOSUL in the short-term. On a positive note, this week in a series of lightning fast advances, ALLIANCE forces seized further control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS, as ISIS now seems to be forced to relocate its headquarters in IRAQ to ISIS’s stronghold town of HAWIJA, KIRKUK. HAWIJA has now become ISIS’s main haven as senior leaders entered the town in armoured vehicles after having fled battles with IRAQI forces elsewhere with ISIS militants cutting off a number of main roads and subjecting them to a strict curfew for security reasons. Ironically, infighting between ISIS members in KIRKUK have left one senior area ISIS leader dead, along with two other companions, who was the mayor of DIYALA and who was temporarily appointed by supreme leader ABU BAKR AL-BAGHDADI. Meanwhile, the U.S. led ALLIANCE has increased the number of bombs dropped on ISIS by about 50% this year, reflecting the progress U.S. backed ground forces have had in pushing ISIS militants out of key strongholds.
Moving on to SYRIA, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire peace process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks. Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN regime carried out the chemical attacks. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week although TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA signed an agreement at the SYRIAN cease-fire talks in KAZAKHSTAN last week calling for the creation of four de-escalation zones in SYRIA that represent the latest attempt by all key players in the region to reduce the violence in SYRIA including the commitment by President Bashar al-Assad that the SYRIAN air force will halt flights over the designated areas in SYRIA. Unfortunately, the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt albeit Russia and the U.S. continuing to discuss the situation in round-the-clock mode anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control. Meanwhile, the ISIS tentacles in SYRIA seem to be behind the recent massacre at the Manchester Arena in the UNITED KINGDOM (UK) whereby Salman Abedi was able to transport a nail bomb into Manchester Arena to massacre 22 people and injure over 120 additional innocent civilians. It seems that Salman Abedi returned from a visit to LIBYA just days before carrying out the Manchester attack and may have travelled to terrorist strongholds in SYRIA. It seems that ABEDI and his brother ISMAEL remained in the UK when their parents returned to LIBYA with the rest of the family four years ago but that travelled back and forth to war-torn LIBYA. Unfortunately, chaos has engulfed LIBYA since the BRITISH backed removal of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 that has left terrorist groups including ISIS battling for control. ISIS has gained a foothold in LIBYA, using LIBYA for terror training camps that were bombed by the US in January over intelligence fears that ISIS was actively planning terrorist operations against Europe. Therefore, it seems that ISIS radicalized ABEDI during his recent trip to LIBYA and SYRIA, if not before, such that ABEDI returned to the UK and fully executed the terrorist plot of bombing Manchester Arena.
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Ironically, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKEY blocked AUSTRIA from formally entering into the NATO cooperation with more than 40 partner countries whereby the TURKISH government is believed to be acting in retaliation for AUSTRIAN moves to block TURKEY from joining the EU. In my opinion, AUSTRIA is among President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s most outspoken EU critics whereby AUSTRIA has gone so far as to call for TURKEY ascension talks into the EU to be formally ended such that it is obvious that TURKEY is in essence extracting its vengeance by blocking AUSTRIA from formally entering the NATO alliance. That is, while AUSTRIA can block TURKISH ascension into the EU, the roles are reversed when it comes to NATO whereby the second largest military power in NATO consisting of TURKEY who is a full NATO member can block AUSTRIA ascension, as AUSTRIA is only a partner country. In my opinion, this is a perfect example of the geopolitical stage of the modern world of an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth whereby for every action there will ultimately be an equal and opposing reaction such that the geopolitical landscape has essentially become a giant chess field. That is, everybody from TURKEY to AUSTRIA to everybody else is now consistently, persistently and relentlessly taking decisions that suit their respective, personal, financial and political interests such that inevitably everybody carries grudges while patiently waiting for an opportunity to reciprocate diplomatically when in actuality it is flagrant vengeance settling of accounts debauchery. In regards to the Austrian defence minister strongly condemning TURKEY's course of action in NATO as irresponsible behaviour against AUSTRIA that will have long-term consequences on AUSTRIAN peace missions particularly in the Western Balkans, I agree with AUSTRIA that AUSTRIA is a key peace keeper in volatile regions of the Balkans such as KOSOVO such that TURKEY’s actions clearly go against the best interests of NATO. That being said, TURKEY is playing the new geopolitical chess game perfectly pretending to isolate AUSTRIA based on credentials when AUSTRIA is being isolated for holding back TURKEY from EU ascension. In my opinion, TURKEY is going to succeed in isolating AUSTRIA out of the NATO alliance with its sheer strength in NATO giving TURKEY veto power and setting another example of the new method of geopolitical operations whereby in simple English, “If you hurt me, I will just wait for an opportunity to hurt you equivalently, so be on your highest guard as diplomacy is now based on ability to reciprocate accordingly, regardless of virtuosity, which has been replaced with money talks, shit walks debauchery.”
Moving on to IRAQ, the recent successful attacks on ISIS by IRAQI security forces in MOSUL, has clearly sent the message to ISIS that it is just a matter of time until the ISIS Empire in MOSUL dies. However, the IRAQI led troops on the ground are essentially forced to fight ISIS style, which is slow and brutal for any other type of heavy artillery attack on ISIS, will result in significant collateral damage in terms of human casualties. Therefore, the ALLIANCE forces recapture of eastern MOSUL in its entirety has triggered a lightning fast momentum as ALLIANCE forces managed to seize control of major parts of Western MOSUL although in my opinion, the last of the fighting will most probably be a lot more difficult. In my opinion, ISIS will cling on to the oldest parts of MOSUL city where streets are narrow making it hard to manoeuvre military convoys and thus increasing the risk of ambushes and civilian casualties. Therefore, it is not surprising to see that ALLIANCE forces are having a difficult time to fully retake control of central MOSUL’s OLD CITY but this struggle is unfortunately necessary to secure the entire province of MOSUL such that patience is of utmost importance as ALLIANCE forces must continue with their relentless yet prudent attacks until ALL ISIS snipers have been eliminated. In regards to the new ISIS stronghold town of HAWIJA, KIRKUK, the infighting between ISIS members that left one senior area ISIS leader dead, along with two other companions, demonstrates that although ISIS is still able to regroup in smaller towns in IRAQ, ISIS leadership is growing increasingly more frustrated. In my opinion, ISIS frustrations are growing each and every day as senior members trade accusations on who is ultimately responsible for recent defeats and loss of ISIS militant lives triggering the killing amongst each other which is a sign that ISIS is no longer as unified as the days when IRAQ was under control of ISIS at all time highs. In regards to the U.S. led ALLIANCE increasing the number of bombs dropped on ISIS by about 50% this year, in my opinion this seems to be attributable to the increased pace of operations along with President Donald Trump giving battlefield commanders more authority to approve airstrikes and raids which has quickened response times. In my opinion, this efficiency and effectiveness of air strikes has the trademark of President Donald Trump whereby he has delegated authority to the right level to aggressively and in a timely manner move against enemy vulnerabilities. In my opinion, assuming that the KURDISH peshmerga, IRAQI army, SHIITE militia and some SUNNI militia forces continue to overlook their differences and stick together, ISIS will inevitably be decimated in IRAQ, although ISIS will likely survive as an incognito terrorist organization throughout the world. In my opinion, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations.
Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's future should be off the agenda for now and the main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace.
In regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad watched as the cease-fire agreement signed last week that establishes four de-escalation zones was violated. In my opinion, although the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt, I believe that RUSSIAN and U.S. round-the-clock discussions anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control should be welcomed as a positive development in fully implementing the de-escalation zones. In my opinion, it is better for RUSSIA and the U.S. to try to work together to implement something in terms of de-escalation zones as opposed to sitting back and insuring that both parties achieve nothing. That being said, it is a shame to once again see the SYRIAN regime and COALITION forces expending significant time and resources on each other as opposed to focusing on the war against the terrorist factions in SYRIA including ISIS, HAYAT TAHRIR AL-SHAM, JABHAT FATEH AL-SHAM, AL QAEDA, NUSRA FRONT, AHRAR AL-SHAM or ALL FULL OF SHIT GANGSTER SHAM who have zero interest in peace negotiations. In regards to ISIS tentacles in SYRIA appearing to be behind the recent massacre at the Manchester Arena in the UNITED KINGDOM (UK) whereby Salman Abedi was able to transport a nail bomb into Manchester Arena to massacre 22 people and injure over 120 additional innocent civilians, this is the new reality of the modern day world in the sense that the terrorists are ready, willing and able to still execute such terrorist acts regardless of the security measures set-up to preserve EUROPE in tact. In my opinion, EUROPE will have to learn to live with this new terrorist threat as EUROPE is infested with sleeper cells that if given the opportunity will kill mercilessly as many innocent civilians as possible before going straight to hell themselves.
Saturday, May 20, 2017
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 247
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 247
During the week ending on Sunday, May 21, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants. Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKISH airplanes and helicopters illegally entered GREECE’s airspace 141 times on one single day on May 15, 2017. According to GREEK press reports, 20 TURKISH F-16, 5 CN-235 maritime surveillance aircraft and 19 helicopters entered the ATHENS flight information region without submitting a flight plan. In all cases, TURKISH aircraft were identified and intercepted by GREEK fighters, while in nine cases the interception process resulted in near combat situations. In addition, two TURKISH missile boats entered GREEK waters off the southeast AEGEAN island of AGATHONISI. The TURKISH vessels that were taking part in a maritime exercise called SEAWOLF stayed in GREEK waters for about 20 minutes. Ironically, last month, TURKEY’s Minister of European Union Affairs, Omer Celik, described AGATHONISI as a TURKISH island. It seems like a meeting between GREEK premier Alexis Tsipras with TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in BEIJING, CHINA this week that occurred only a couple of hours before the incidences triggered renewed debate over the borders of both the sea and airspace. However, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seemed to be more interested in BEIJING, CHINA than the EU as the forum in BEIJING, CHINA was designed to promote the BEIJING led plan referred to simply as the “One Belt, One Road”. As the name suggests, the plan is inspired by a simple idea whereby CHINA is pledging to invest hundreds of billions of dollars to build infrastructure projects such as ports and power plants all across the world. The scale is enormous and it appears that the amount of investment being offered by CHINA will make the sums the U.S. invested in Europe after World War II pale in comparison.
Moving
on to IRAQ, IRAQI and US-led ALLIANCE forces continued with their offensive
against ISIS on MOSUL as IRAQI and ALLIED forces managed to push ISIS militants
back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special
forces appear to have liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its
entirety. As a friendly reminder, MOSUL is divided by the Tigris River with
both east and west sides respectively making up about half of the population of
MOSUL. Elite ALLIANCE forces managed to fight through an elaborate defense
system formed by ISIS over the past two years, that kept ALLIANCE forces out
while contemporaneously keeping the residents of MOSUL trapped in as captives,
by recapturing east MOSUL in its entirety while being at the cusp of
controlling west MOSUL in the short-term. On a positive note, this week in a
series of lightning fast advances, ALLIANCE forces seized further control of most
of western MOSUL from ISIS as IRAQI General Yahya Rasool told a news conference
in Baghdad, IRAQ that ISIS now controls just slightly more than 10% of western
MOSUL. Unfortunately, facing defeat, ISIS has become increasingly ruthless in
its attempts to slow down ALLIANCE forces progress with the use of chemical
weapons as the war against ISIS took another turn for the worse even as
victory of the IRAQI forces appears within reach. However, another 200,000
people may be forced to flee their homes as the fighting in MOSUL intensifies in
addition to the nearly 700,000 people who have already been displaced from
MOSUL since U.S. backed IRAQI forces first launched their MOSUL offensive in
October of 2016 to retake MOSUL from ISIS. Although IRAQI forces have driven
ISIS out from most of MOSUL, IRAQI forces are still encountering heavy
resistance in densely populated WESTERN districts making it increasingly more
difficult to insure civilians receive the assistance and protection they need
to survive. However, on a positive note, IRAQI forces have invaded another
district in western MOSUL by recapturing about half of AL-NAJJAR as IRAQI F-16
fighter jets destroyed a booby-trapped workshop, killing several ISIS militants
in western MOSUL and destroying all weapons and explosive substances located on
site. IRAQI jets also destroyed two other ISIS locations, one of them used for
telecommunications and another one used as a bomb factory while taking over the
AL-RIFAIE district.
Moving
on to SYRIA, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers,
RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security
Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the
six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic
efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing
of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response
to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than
100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire
peace process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State
Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks.
Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed
on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN
regime carried out the chemical attacks. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed
for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week although TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA signed an
agreement at the SYRIAN cease-fire talks in KAZAKHSTAN last week calling for
the creation of four de-escalation zones in SYRIA that represent the latest attempt by
all key players in the region to reduce the violence in SYRIA including the
commitment by President Bashar al-Assad that the SYRIAN air force will halt
flights over the designated areas in SYRIA. Unfortunately, the new cease-fire
deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of violations
from the outset as the U.S. sent its air force in to strike SYRIAN regime
vehicles that violated a de-escalation zone around AL-TANF where the Free
Syrian Army (FSA) has an army base with special forces training Syrian militias.
The SYRIAN regime violated the de-escalation zone two times before the U.S.
airstrikes although it still remains unclear as to why the SYRIANS violated the
zone. However, finally the tensions on the ground escalated as SYRIAN forces,
in several vehicles including at least one tank, were near the JORDANIAN border
and deemed a threat to coalition partners on the ground. Although the SYRIAN
forces were repeatedly ordered to stop their advance toward a de-escalation
zone, the SYRIAN forces ignored the warning from both COALITION and RUSSIAN
forces triggering fresh air strikes by the U.S. military. It appears that the
SYRIAN forces were building a fighting position about 55 kilometers from a U.S.
coalition base close to AT TANF where advisers train members of the Syrian
Democratic Forces and Syrian Arab Coalition such that the ground commander
called for the air strike as a matter of COALITION force protection.
In
my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a
positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the
PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However,
with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears
that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the
governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war
with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which
secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my
opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the
hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather
everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its
ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal
with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE.
In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for
2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3
billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its
citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President
Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the
failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military
ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with
their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself
into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby
virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European
parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning
the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed
“Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a
shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that
TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as
the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion,
TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that
the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent
NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in
exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5
million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5
billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with
visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside
of TURKISH borders.
Finally,
the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing
AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his
attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement
supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the
referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the
TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be
converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one
executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor.
Ironically, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight
ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKISH airplanes and
helicopters illegally entered GREECE’s airspace 141 times on one single day on May
15, 2017. In my opinion, the root of the problem as concerns the southeast
AEGEAN island of AGATHONISI is that although the EU and the international community recognise the sovereignty of GREECE over the GREEK AEGEAN islands, TURKEY has a list of issues regarding the borders of waters, national airspace, exclusive zones, etc. TURKEY also claims “grey zones” of undetermined sovereignty over a number of small islands, most notably the islands of IMIA and KARDAK. In my opinion, these old GREEK & TURKISH scars were irritated this week after a meeting between GREEK premier Alexis Tsipras with TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in BEIJING, CHINA as the serious incidents occurred only a couple of hours after the meeting. However, in my opinion, the incidences clearly constitute flagrant violations of international laws given that the EU guiding principal is the respect for the sovereignty of member states over their territorial sea and airspace. In my opinion, although TURKEY has been specifically requested to respect good neighbourly relations as one of the core principles to TURKEY’s candidacy to the EU, TURKEY is once again flexing its muscle by sending GREECE and the EU the message that until TURKEY agrees to the borders of the sea and airspace, TURKEY will follow its own internal definition of sovereignty hence once again straining relations with GREECE and the EU. In regards to TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appearing more interested in BEIJING, CHINA than the EU by focusing this week on the BEIJING led plan referred to simply as the “One Belt, One Road”, CHINA pledging to invest hundreds of billions of dollars to build infrastructure projects such as ports and power plants all across the world may very well lead to CHINA becoming TURKEY’s new best friend. In my opinion, TURKEY represents a prime candidate for CHINA’s future investment plans as CHINA has already significantly increased its investments in TURKEY whereby bilateral trade between TURKEY and CHINA that was only $ 1 billion a year ago, now stands at around $ 27 billion. In addition, CHINESE firms are also helping construct a high-speed rail network in TURKEY that CHINA state media claims will help facilitate cross-continental trade. However, in my opinion it is still too soon to tell with certainty whether CHINA will emerge as TURKEY’s new best friend as the “One Belt, One Road” is still far from a guaranteed success as some other countries view the CHINA investment initiatives with deep suspicion worrying that the projects will mostly benefit CHINA rather than its partners but also that the huge projects will be plagued by inefficiency and corruption. In my opinion, CHINA’s previous attempts to forge closer ties with TURKEY have been difficult mainly due to tensions over the repression of CHINA's Muslim Uighur minority and concerns that aligning with CHINA might affect Turkey’s NATO membership or TURKEY’s hopes to join the EU. However, these days, TURKEY may be more receptive to suitors from outside the WEST after last year’s failed “Coup D’État”, TURKEY’s subsequent purges of all opposition movements and the ongoing conflict in SYRIA that have all strained TURKEY’s relationship with its traditional WESTERN allies and essentially destroyed TURKEY’s EU aspirations. Although TURKEY may have hoped for a new start under President Donald Trump, the U.S. commitment to arming SYRIAN KURDISH rebels for an upcoming offensive against ISIS in RAQQA has sparked new tensions.
Moving
on to IRAQ, the recent successful attacks on ISIS by IRAQI security forces in
MOSUL, has clearly sent the message to ISIS that it is just a matter of time
until the ISIS Empire in MOSUL dies. However, the IRAQI led troops on the
ground are essentially forced to fight ISIS style, which is slow and brutal for
any other type of heavy artillery attack on ISIS, will result in significant
collateral damage in terms of human casualties. Therefore, the ALLIANCE forces recapture of eastern MOSUL in its entirety has triggered a lightning fast
momentum as ALLIANCE forces managed to seize control of major parts of Western
MOSUL although in my opinion, the last of the fighting will most probably be a
lot more difficult. In my opinion, ISIS will cling on to the oldest parts of
MOSUL city where streets are narrow making it hard to manoeuvre military
convoys and thus increasing the risk of ambushes and civilian casualties.
Therefore, it
is not surprising to see that ALLIANCE forces are having a difficult time to
fully retake control of central MOSUL’s OLD CITY but this struggle is unfortunately
necessary to secure the entire province of MOSUL such that patience is of
utmost importance as ALLIANCE forces must continue with their relentless yet
prudent attacks until ALL ISIS snipers have been eliminated. In regards to the
new IRAQI offensives from the northwest of MOSUL against ISIS that were met
with fierce resistance including chemical attacks, it is my opinion that ISIS
will fight as dirty as possible to psychologically traumatize the IRAQI troops
until the very end. That is, ISIS now appears to be adopting a strategy whereby
ISIS has nothing left to lose other than their lives which they seem to welcome
with open arms such that ISIS will now look to inflict as many deep rooted
scars as possible on ALLIANCE forces to insure that although the ISIS name will
most likely completely disappear from MOSUL, the deep rooted ISIS inflicted scars
will remain over IRAQ in full. In my opinion, although another 200,000 people
may be forced to flee their homes as the fighting in MOSUL intensifies in addition
to the nearly 700,000 people who have already been displaced from MOSUL, with
over 16,000 ISIS fighters killed since the offensive commenced, ISIS has lost
more in terms of human life but not in terms of pain, agony and strife. Therefore,
as IRAQI units continue to push forward on all fronts, there is new hope that
ISIS can be defeated in MOSUL city before the ISLAMIC holy month of RAMADAN
that begins on Friday, May 26, 2017. In
my opinion, assuming
that the KURDISH peshmerga, IRAQI army, SHIITE militia and some SUNNI militia
forces continue to overlook their differences and stick together, ISIS will
inevitably be decimated in IRAQ, although ISIS will likely survive as an
incognito terrorist organization throughout the world. In my opinion, with ISIS
inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be
prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground
offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected
move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a
dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already
laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas,
carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to
bankroll future operations.
Moving
on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel
stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and
sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears
to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval
from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much
political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition
relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA
managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s
forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY
managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel
factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s
two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as
guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty
International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison
in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of
President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of
negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad's future should be off the agenda for now and the
main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections
as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to
implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace.
In
regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S.
President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK
cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S.
believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people
authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now
formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these
chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be
behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and
RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while
officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA
that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad watched as the cease-fire
agreement signed last week that establishes four de-escalation zones was
violated. In my opinion, the SYRIAN regime violated the de-escalation zones
primarily for reconnaissance missions to scout out the territories currently under
FSA control such that the U.S. air force reciprocated with moderate force
whereby the U.S. seemed to be more focused on the SYRIAN regime turning away
then entering into a game of firing back and forth play. That is, when 27 SYRIAN
regime vehicles drove within 18 miles of AL-TANF that breached the 34 mile
radius, the U.S. air force first attempted to scare the SYRIAN regime by flying
relatively low but when the convoy did not turn around, the U.S. air force hit
some of the vehicles with a couple of rounds. In addition, when an unarmed
Syrian SU-22 fighter-bomber entered the de-escalation zone, it was merely
intercepted by a pair of F-22 U.S. fighter aircrafts and forced to go. In
regards to SYRIAN
forces building a fighting position about 55 kilometers from a U.S. coalition
base close to AT TANF such that the ground commander called for an air strike
as a matter of COALITION force protection, in my opinion the movements by the
SYRIAN forces were aggressive such that the air strikes by the U.S. were
justified as the U.S. has the right to defend COALITION troops when opposing
forces take aggressive steps such as was the case in AT TANF. That being said, it is a
shame to once again see the SYRIAN regime and COALITION forces expending
significant time and resources on each other as opposed to focusing on the war
against the terrorist factions in SYRIA including ISIS, HAYAT TAHRIR AL-SHAM,
JABHAT FATEH AL-SHAM, AL QAEDA, NUSRA FRONT, AHRAR AL-SHAM or ALL FULL OF SHIT
GANGSTER SHAM who have zero interest in peace negotiations. In my opinion, the
provocative actions by the SYRIAN forces do not make sense with the commitments
recently made by the existing regime under President Bashar al-Assad such that
it is possible that the SYRIAN forces on the ground have taken matters into
their own hands in order to derail the cease-fire agreement.
In
summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 247” as the belief
that MOSUL victory is critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key
while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace albeit violations by SYRIAN
regime triggering U.S. air force backlash necessary to protect COALITION stash
albeit aggressive manoeuvres threatening de-escalation bash attributable to
reckless behaviours like SYRIAN forces smoking cheap hash.
Spirit of John Lennon – Kurdish Guerrilla Song:
May 21, 2017
Saturday, May 13, 2017
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 246
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 246
During the week ending on Sunday, May 14, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants. Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as Turkey threatened to step up military action against SYRIAN KURDISH fighters allied with the U.S. after the U.S. administration under President Donald Trump decided to directly arm the KURDS for an assault on the SYRIAN city of RAQQA. The warning was delivered to senior U.S. national security officials in a series of closed-door meetings after the U.S. administration under President Donald Trump expressed its intent to arm the KURDS following months of deliberations. It is important to note that TURKEY has already conducted limited strikes against the U.S. backed KURDISH fighters in northern SYRIA in recent weeks but TURKEY could increase the tempo of those strikes if TURKEY so chooses. Although U.S. officials have complained bitterly to TURKEY about the TURKISH airstrikes that have targeted the principal U.S. partner in SYRIA in the fight against ISIS, TURKEY reserved the right to take further military action against the KURDS. Furthermore, TURKISH officials were fuming at the seams with public anger against the U.S. decision to arm the KURDS a week or so ahead of a state visit to Washington by TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and US-led ALLIANCE forces continued with their offensive against ISIS on MOSUL as IRAQI and ALLIED forces managed to push ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces appear to have liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety. As a friendly reminder, MOSUL is divided by the Tigris River with both east and west sides respectively making up about half of the population of MOSUL. Elite ALLIANCE forces managed to fight through an elaborate defense system formed by ISIS over the past two years, that kept ALLIANCE forces out while contemporaneously keeping the residents of MOSUL trapped in as captives, by recapturing east MOSUL in its entirety while being at the cusp of controlling west MOSUL in the short-term. On a positive note, this week in a series of lightning fast advances, ALLIANCE forces seized further control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS, whereby General Othman al-Ghanimi stated that he hoped that ISIS would be defeated in MOSUL city before the ISLAMIC holy month of RAMADAN that begins on Friday, May 26, 2017. It now appears that recent gains from the north of MOSUL mean that the remaining ISIS militants are being squeezed into an ever-smaller area as fewer than 1,000 ISIS militants are now besieged in several north-western districts, including the Old MOSUL City, along with as many as 450,000 civilians. The IRAQI security forces are now carrying out a big and effective effort from a new front from the north of MOSUL after their advance into the densely-populated Old MOSUL City were stalled by ISIS from the south and west. After a slow start by IRAQI forces from the north that were initially limited by fierce resistance from ISIS militants using suicide car bombs and snipers gains are now being made as IRAQI forces have stormed entrances to the IQTISADIYEEN district, south-east of MUSHAIRFA, and killed dozens of ISIS militants in heavy clashes.
Moving on to SYRIA, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire peace process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks. Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN regime carried out the chemical attacks. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA signed an agreement at the SYRIAN cease-fire talks in KAZAKHSTAN calling for the creation of four de-escalation zones in SYRIA that represent the latest attempt by all key players in the region to reduce the violence in SYRIA including the commitment by President Bashar al-Assad that the SYRIAN air force will halt flights over the designated areas in SYRIA. Unfortunately, the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been received with mixed reactions by SYRIAN residents of the affected areas as while some SYRIAN residents were optimistic that the cease-fire deal would benefit civilians, others expressed doubt over its sustainability with distrust of RUSSIA and IRAN who were instrumental in bringing the cease-fire to fruition. Although SYRIAN residents agreed on the need for the four de-escalation zones located mainly in opposition-held areas of SYRIA covering the provinces of Damascus, Idlib, Latakia, Aleppo, Homs, Hama, Deraa and Quneitra, the SYRIAN residents expressed distrust of the cease-fire deal on the basis that the SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad was just buying more time to continue with their ultimate goal of destroying the SYRIAN opposition movement. On a positive note, U.S. backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a KURDISH and Arab force, recaptured the key SYRIAN city of TABQAH, the TABQAH DAM and a nearby airfield from ISIS as 70 ISIS terrorists surrendered to the U.S. led international coalition leaving heavy weapons behind them.
In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders.
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Ironically, TURKEY also threatened to step up military action against SYRIAN KURDISH fighters allied with the U.S. after the U.S. administration under President Donald Trump decided to directly arm the KURDS for an assault on ISIS in the SYRIAN city of RAQQA. In my opinion, any further military action by TURKEY could potentially complicate the offensive on RAQQA, ISIS’s symbolic capital and ISIS’s last major stronghold in SYRIA after the IRAQI city of MOSUL that is currently besieged by U.S. backed IRAQI forces squeezing ISIS slowly but surely out of MOSUL. In my opinion, TURKEY sending forces into northern SYRIA could divert the KURDISH fighters away from the RAQQA battle with ISIS and into a battle with TURKEY. As a friendly reminder, TURKEY views the U.S. backed YPG, also known as the Syrian KURDISH People’s Protection Units as a threat to TURKEY because the KURDISH YPG, which dominates a U.S. supported coalition force known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), is affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party. The Kurdistan Workers’ Party, known as the PKK, has fought a decades-long insurgency against TURKEY and is classified as a terrorist group by both TURKEY and the U.S. However, the YPG has not engaged in terrorist activities with the PKK against TURKEY while the YPG has essentially refused to fight directly against the PKK on the basis that the PKK’s recent focus shifted to the war against ISIS. In my opinion, TURKEY shattered a previously negotiated ceasefire with the KURDISH PKK back in July of 2015 when TURKEY launched a dual anti-terror offensive against ISIS militants in SYRIA and the PKK in northern IRAQ and southeast TURKEY. But the campaign has overwhelmingly focused on the KURDISH militants, who have ripped up a 2013 ceasefire deal with TURKEY. Meanwhile, the Syrian KURDISH militia, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), which TURKEY says are an offshoot of the PKK, have been battling ISIS, winning the respect from the U.S. and its allies. Notwithstanding, TURKISH officials have regularly expressed anger over U.S. reporting for allegedly ignoring the suffering caused by the PKK’s three-decade armed struggle that has claimed over 40,000 lives. In my opinion, this PKK-TURKISH conflict demonstrates the sheer complexity of the geopolitical landscape in the region whereby there is so much bad blood dating back several decades that continues to resurface to overshadow the real primary threat in the region which is ISIS. However, the reality of the modern world geopolitical landscape is a chess like game of personal, financial and political interests such that it is impossible to satisfy all needs of all parties, in the region, such that difficult decisions must be made and the potential inadvertent adverse consequences must be accepted. In my opinion U.S. President Donald Trump has made the right decision to arm the KURDS for an assault on ISIS in the SYRIAN city of RAQQA as when all hell first broke loose as a result of ISIS and everybody including the IRAQI and SYRIAN military ran for their lives, the KURDS charged ISIS and managed to contain the spread of ISIS. In my opinion, the KURDISH YPG represent the heart of the ISIS resistance and were instrumental in containing ISIS from the outset when nobody else was ready, willing and able to fight against ISIS such that the KURDISH YPG have earned the respect of the U.S. and many of its allies including myself. In regards to TURKEY’s protests against the arming of the KURDS for an assault on ISIS in the SYRIAN city of RAQQA, TURKEY should not interfere and strike the KURDISH YPG as the KURDISH YPG have gone out of their way to avoid direct confrontations with TURKEY other than self-defence when the KURDISH YPG have been attacked first by TURKEY and the YPG continue to desire to avoid all military confrontations with TURKEY to the extent possible.
Moving on to IRAQ, the recent successful attacks on ISIS by IRAQI security forces in MOSUL, has clearly sent the message to ISIS that it is just a matter of time until the ISIS Empire in MOSUL dies. However, the IRAQI led troops on the ground are essentially forced to fight ISIS style, which is slow and brutal for any other type of heavy artillery attack on ISIS, will result in significant collateral damage in terms of human casualties. Therefore, the ALLIANCE forces recapture of eastern MOSUL in its entirety has triggered a lightning fast momentum as ALLIANCE forces managed to seize control of major parts of Western MOSUL although in my opinion, the last of the fighting will most probably be a lot more difficult. In my opinion, ISIS will cling on to the oldest parts of MOSUL city where streets are narrow making it hard to manoeuvre military convoys and thus increasing the risk of ambushes and civilian casualties. Therefore, it is not surprising to see that ALLIANCE forces are having a difficult time to fully retake control of central MOSUL’s OLD CITY but this struggle is unfortunately necessary to secure the entire province of MOSUL such that patience is of utmost importance as ALLIANCE forces must continue with their relentless yet prudent attacks until ALL ISIS snipers have been eliminated. In regards to the new IRAQI offensive from the northwest of MOSUL against ISIS that gained new momentum with an armoured IRAQI force advancing into MOSUL city, this represents a strategic victory by IRAQI forces as located in the vicinity is the GRAND AL-NURI Mosque which has become a hugely symbolic prize as it is the mosque where ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi made a rare public appearance back in July of 2014 and declared ISIS’s caliphate after ISIS seized around one-third of IRAQ by sheer and brutal force. In my opinion, it is precisely because of the symbolic nature of the GRAND AL-NURI Mosque that the fight for Mosul’s west has been slow and deadly to IRAQI forces and civilians caught in the crossfire with ISIS. I believe that regardless of the IRAQI casualties, there is no other viable option to lift the ISIS siege of the OLD MOSUL CITY than what the IRAQI forces are currently trying to accomplish which is to completely surround the OLD MOSUL CITY before launching an operation to clear it in its entirety from ISIS. Therefore, after more than six months of fighting that has killed and wounded more than 8,000 civilians with over 420,000 people having been forced to flee western MOSUL alone since the fighting began, there does appear to be a light of hope at the end of the tunnel for the hundreds of thousands of people still trapped inside MOSUL neighbourhoods under ISIS control. Therefore, as IRAQI units continue to push forward on all fronts, there is new hope that ISIS can be defeated in MOSUL city before the ISLAMIC holy month of RAMADAN that begins on Friday, May 26, 2017. In my opinion, assuming that the KURDISH peshmerga, IRAQI army, SHIITE militia and some SUNNI militia forces continue to overlook their differences and stick together, ISIS will inevitably be decimated in IRAQ, although ISIS will likely survive as an incognito terrorist organization throughout the world. In my opinion, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations.
Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's future should be off the agenda for now and the main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace.
In regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad signed a cease-fire agreement that establishes four de-escalation zones. However, the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been received with mixed reactions by SYRIAN residents on the basis that the SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad was just buying more time to continue with their ultimate goal of destroying the SYRIAN opposition movement. In my opinion, everybody including the SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad is exhausted from the SYRIN war and thus most people on all sides of the SYRIAN conflict, except for the terrorists, want the fighting and the air strikes to stop once and for all as the SYRIAN conflict enters its seventh year with more than 465,000 people killed in the fighting, more than one million injured and more than twelve million displaced from their homes representing almost half of SYRIA’s pre-war population. Therefore, although all previous attempts at a cease-fire deal failed due to empty promises by ALL parties to the respective deals, I believe that this cease-fire deal stands the greatest chance for success as it comes on the heels of the realization of ALL parties to this conflict that the war cannot be ended by force such that some sort of sharing of power will ultimately be required before ALL of SYRIA is reduced to fire, brimstone and ashes. Therefore, SYRIA is at a point in its history where there has been enough war and bloodshed to conclude that the SYRIAN conflict cannot be resolved by force such that all key parties involved in the war must negotiate some kind of a peace deal to end the war in SYRIA once and for all. That being said, the war against the terrorist factions in SYRIA including ISIS, HAYAT TAHRIR AL-SHAM, JABHAT FATEH AL-SHAM, AL QAEDA, NUSRA FRONT, AHRAR AL-SHAM or ALL FULL OF SHIT GANGSTER SHAM who have zero interest in peace negotiations should not derail the cease-fire agreement. In regards to U.S. backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) recapturing the key SYRIAN city of TABQAH, in my opinion the successful recapture of TABQAH, located roughly 30 miles west of the ISIS stronghold of RAQQA, denies the ISIS terrorists a key coordination hub that had been used by ISIS since 2013 as a base for planning attacks after ISIS lost other territories in northern SYRIA.
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 246” as the belief that MOSUL victory is critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace albeit distrust, animosity and hate as after seven plus years of relentless war fate with more than 465,000 people killed, 1 million injured and over 12 million displaced, safe to assume that earth cannot absorb any more blood of SYRIAN race.
Spirit of John Lennon – Kurdish Guerrilla Song:
May 14, 2017
Saturday, May 6, 2017
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 245
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 245
During the week ending on Sunday, May 7, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants. Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crack-down measures as a school principal has disappeared in the latest in a string of international arrests allegedly ordered by TURKEY. Turgay Karaman was on his way to a meeting with lawyers when he was intercepted by plain-clothes police officers and forced into a waiting car in MALAYSIA. Surveillance camera footage shows the 43 year-old being forced away with his hands tied behind his back although Turgay Karaman has lived in MALAYSIA legally for 13 years on a work permit. However, police have since revealed that Turgay Karaman is one of two TURKISH men detained in MALAYSIA for unspecified offences relating to national security. However, a lawyer representing Turgay Karaman, the principal of Time International School, said neither Turgay Karaman nor the other detained businessman Ihsan Aslan were part of the failed “Coup D’État”. Nonetheless, TURKEY’s government has requested anyone TURKEY accuses of links with the Fethullah Gulen movement to be extradited to Turkey, where more than 110,000 people have been detained and 47,000 formally arrested in the ongoing crackdown after the failed “Coup D’État”. In addition, the TURKISH government blocked WIKIPEDIA as part of its latest attack on dissent as Turkey made demands of the online encyclopaedia that the site remove all content critical of the TURKISH government that WIKIPEDIA refused to do. Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that TURKEY was seriously saddened by television footage showing U.S. military forces operating alongside Syrian KURDISH fighters that TURKEY views as terrorists while the U.S. believes that the KURDISH forces are the most effective fighting force against ISIS. TURKISH forces launched airstrikes on the Syrian Kurdish Peoples’ Protection Units (YPG) as TURKEY considers the YPG to be an affiliate of the PKK against which TURKEY has been waging a 30 plus year fight for control of southeastern TURKEY. Conversely, the US views the KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces as the most effective partner to counter ISIS in northern Syria as proven by steady advances against ISIS. Finally, RUSSIA and TURKEY agreed to boost economic ties as RUSSIA hailed improving bilateral relations following tensions caused by TURKEY's shooting down of a RUSSIAN fighter jet near the SYRIAN border in 2015. However, there was little progress on SYRIA where TURKEY and RUSSIA back opposing sides although they seem to be getting back to a normal cooperative partnership as RUSSIA and TURKEY reached a comprehensive agreement to lift sanctions although the exact date of their removal remained unclear.
Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and US-led ALLIANCE forces continued with their offensive against ISIS on MOSUL as IRAQI and ALLIED forces managed to push ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces appear to have liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety. As a friendly reminder, MOSUL is divided by the Tigris River with both east and west sides respectively making up about half of the population of MOSUL. Elite ALLIANCE forces managed to fight through an elaborate defense system formed by ISIS over the past two years, that kept ALLIANCE forces out while contemporaneously keeping the residents of MOSUL trapped in as captives, by recapturing east MOSUL in its entirety while being at the cusp of controlling west MOSUL in the short-term. On a positive note, this week in a series of lightning fast advances, ALLIANCE forces seized further control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS, including a new IRAQI offensive to take back MOSUL from ISIS that gained new momentum with an armoured IRAQI force trying to advance into MOSUL city from the north western side. ISIS is now holding onto the northwestern corner of MOSUL that includes the historic Old MOSUL City centre and the medieval GRAND AL-NURI Mosque including its landmark historic leaning minaret where the ISIS black flag has been flying from the tower since ever since June of 2014. It appears that IRAQI forces are making a steady advance in their offensive and that ISIS fighters are breaking down slowly but surely and retreating from the northwestern corner. Meanwhile, in another symbol of the weakening of the ISIS organization, ISIS vigilante, Um Qays who was in charge of intelligence cells as well as women police forces within ISIS, was found dead with marks of gunshots in her chest at a house on the outskirts of Tal Afar, a major ISIS stronghold.
Moving on to SYRIA, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire peace process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks. Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN regime carried out the chemical attacks. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA signed an agreement at the SYRIAN cease-fire talks in KAZAKHSTAN calling for the creation of four de-escalation zones in SYRIA that represent the latest attempt by all key players in the region to reduce the violence in SYRIA including the commitment by President Bashar al-Assad that the SYRIAN air force will halt flights over the designated areas in SYRIA. Unfortunately, as officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad signed the agreement, some members of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) shouted in protest and walked out of the conference room because the FSA is protesting IRAN's participation at the cease-fire conference and the role of IRAN as a guarantor of the cease-fire agreement, accusing IRAN of being a responsible party in the war in SYRIA that has killed more than 400,000 people and displaced over half of SYRIA’s population. As per Abu Osama Golani, a FSA general who attended the cease-fire conference in KAZAKHSTAN, IRAN is a country that is killing the SYRIAN people and thus the killer cannot also be the rescuer. Meanwhile, President Bashar al-Assad has said that although it will abide by the proposed cease-fire agreement, the Syrian Armed Forces (SAF) will continue fighting terrorism wherever armed rebel groups are fighting SAF troops. It is obvious that the various terrorist groups have no interest for peace as over 130 militants and civilians were killed and more than 500 people were wounded during a recent wave of terrorist infighting in the EAST GHOUTA region of DAMASCUS, SYRIA. It seems that terrorist groups JAYSH AL-ISLAM and FAYLAQ AL-RAHMAN have been trading attacks for control of the EAST GHOUTA region resulting in fierce battles shattering any hope for the various terrorist groups to respect any sort of cease-fire agreement.
In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders.
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Ironically, FETHULLAH GULEN who has lived in self-imposed exile in the United States since 1999 seems to be behind this new AKP paranoid schizophrenic ideology that I refer to as the “GULEN BI-POLAR DISORDER” whereby TURKEY has now crossed the border into MALAYSIA whereby Turgay Karaman, the principal of Time International School and detained businessman Ihsan Aslan who have formally refuted any involvement in the failed “Coup D’État” were detained under guilty until proven innocent principles with plains-clothes police officers arresting both men and sweeping them away like trailer park trash with no respect for civil human rights and liberties. In my opinion, TURKEY’s government request that anyone TURKEY accuses of links with the Fethullah Gulen movement be extradited to TURKEY is without merit based on the notion that everyone is entitled to a fair trial in their respective country of sponsorship which in this case is MALAYSIA before being deported to TURKEY as there is a difference between being found guilty by TURKEY in appearance as opposed to being found guilty in fact by MALAYSIA. Therefore, until such time as TURKEY presents evidence before the MALAYSIAN courts that these two men are guilty beyond a shadow of a doubt, TURKEY’s request for extradition needs to be delayed as otherwise the precedent will be set that wild accusations are sufficient to have suspects detained. In regards to the TURKISH government blocking WIKIPEDIA as Turkey made demands that the site remove all content critical of the TURKISH government that WIKIPEDIA refused to do, I believe that WIKIPEDIA needs to fight the ban as access to information is a fundamental human right of all people including the TURKISH people such that WIKIPEDIA has the clout to stand with the TURKISH people and fight for this fundamental civil right. In regards to U.S. military forces operating alongside Syrian KURDISH fighters that TURKEY views as terrorists while the U.S. believes that the KURDISH forces are the most effective fighting force against ISIS, I believe that once again divergent personal, financial and political interests tend to characterize the same group of fighters as either freedom fighters or terrorists depending upon the point-of-view. In my opinion, this is the new geopolitical complexity that has flooded the entire region whereby everybody continuously and persistently jockeys primarily for his or her respective interests first while ISIS is placed secondary along with all other strategic NATO alliances. In regards to RUSSIA and TURKEY getting back to a normal cooperative partnership as RUSSIA and TURKEY reached a comprehensive agreement to lift sanctions although the exact date of their removal remained unclear, I believe RUSSIA saw the opening to strengthen ties with TURKEY after TURKEY blasted the U.S. for backing the KURDS and thus took the opportunity to sway TURKEY in favour of resuming economic ties with the eventual lifting of sanctions. In my opinion, this is the new game on the geopolitical stage of modern day chess like plays whereby nothing ever stays the same but rather varies perpetually depending on what various dominant personal, financial and political interests say.
Moving on to IRAQ, the recent successful attacks on ISIS by IRAQI security forces in MOSUL, has clearly sent the message to ISIS that it is just a matter of time until the ISIS Empire in MOSUL dies. However, the IRAQI led troops on the ground are essentially forced to fight ISIS style, which is slow and brutal for any other type of heavy artillery attack on ISIS, will result in significant collateral damage in terms of human casualties. Therefore, the ALLIANCE forces recapture of eastern MOSUL in its entirety has triggered a lightning fast momentum as ALLIANCE forces managed to seize control of major parts of Western MOSUL although in my opinion, the last of the fighting will most probably be a lot more difficult. In my opinion, ISIS will cling on to the oldest parts of MOSUL city where streets are narrow making it hard to manoeuvre military convoys and thus increasing the risk of ambushes and civilian casualties. Therefore, it is not surprising to see that ALLIANCE forces are having a difficult time to fully retake control of central MOSUL’s OLD CITY but this struggle is unfortunately necessary to secure the entire province of MOSUL such that patience is of utmost importance as ALLIANCE forces must continue with their relentless yet prudent attacks until ALL ISIS snipers have been eliminated. In regards to the new IRAQI offensive from the northwest of MOSUL against ISIS that gained new momentum with an armoured IRAQI force trying to advance into MOSUL city, this would represent a strategic victory by IRAQI forces as located in the vicinity is the GRAND AL-NURI Mosque which has become a hugely symbolic prize as it is the mosque where ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi made a rare public appearance back in July of 2014 and declared ISIS’s caliphate after ISIS seized around one-third of IRAQ by sheer and brutal force. In my opinion, it is precisely because of the symbolic nature of the GRAND AL-NURI Mosque that the fight for Mosul’s west has been slow and deadly to IRAQI forces and civilians caught in the crossfire with ISIS. I believe that regardless of the IRAQI casualties, there is no other viable option to lift the ISIS siege of the OLD MOSUL CITY than what the IRAQI forces are currently trying to accomplish which is to completely surround the OLD MOSUL CITY before launching an operation to clear it in its entirety from ISIS. Therefore, after more than six months of fighting that has killed and wounded more than 8,000 civilians with over 420,000 people having been forced to flee western MOSUL alone since the fighting began, there does appear to be a light of hope at the end of the tunnel for the hundreds of thousands of people still trapped inside MOSUL neighbourhoods under ISIL control. Meanwhile, in regards to ISIS vigilante, Um Qays who was in charge of intelligence cells as well as women police forces within ISIS, being found dead with marks of gunshots in her chest, it is my opinion that all ISIS terrorists regardless of their gender should be treated equally such that Um Qays got what she deserved and the world is a far safer and better place with her death. In my opinion, assuming that the KURDISH peshmerga, IRAQI army, SHIITE militia and some SUNNI militia forces continue to overlook their differences and stick together, ISIS will inevitably be decimated in IRAQ, although ISIS will likely survive as an incognito terrorist organization throughout the world. In my opinion, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations.
Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's future should be off the agenda for now and the main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace.
In regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad signed a cease-fire agreement that establishes four de-escalation zones. However, some members of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) shouted in protest and walked out of the conference stating that IRAN is a country that is killing the SYRIAN people and thus the killer cannot also be the rescuer. In my opinion, everybody at the table of negotiations has their respective hands dirty such that the protests by the FSA against IRAN cannot hold back the peace process. In my opinion, there will definitely never be any peace in SYRIA if IRAN is excluded given that IRAN has been instrumental in maintaining the existing regime under President Bashar al-Assad in power. That being said, I am not condoning IRAN’s actions other than to say that everybody in the region could be held accountable for killing the SYRIAN people in which case nobody could sit at the table of peace negotiations under the FSA logic as everybody now functioning as a rescuer has previously been involved in the SYRIAN conflict as a killer. Therefore, SYRIA is at a point in its history where there has been enough war and bloodshed to conclude that the SYRIAN conflict cannot be resolved by force such that all key parties involved in the war including IRAN must negotiate some kind of a peace deal to end the war in SYRIA once and for all. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad confirming that the Syrian Armed Forces (SAF) will continue fighting terrorism wherever armed rebel groups are fighting SAF troops, it is evident that ISIS, HAYAT TAHRIR AL-SHAM, JABHAT FATEH AL-SHAM, AL QAEDA, NUSRA FRONT, AHRAR AL-SHAM or ALL FULL OF SHIT GANGSTER SHAM have zero interest in peace negotiations such that wars with these terrorist factions should not derail the cease-fire agreement. In regards to over 130 militants and civilians being killed and more than 500 people being wounded during a recent wave of terrorist infighting in the EAST GHOUTA region of DAMASCUS, SYRIA, the various terrorist groups operating in the region have zero interest in any form of cease-fire such that there is nothing TURKEY, IRAN or RUSSIA can do other than intervene when the terrorists cross the line and innocent civilians start to die.
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 245” as the belief that MOSUL victory is critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace albeit RADICAL GANGSTER TERRORISTS still raging war to even the never ending score that only the latest cease-fire deal signed by TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA can result in an end to the heartless, senseless and savage gore.
Spirit of John Lennon – Kurdish Guerrilla Song:
May 7, 2017
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