Wednesday, October 31, 2018
Saturday, October 27, 2018
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 322
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 322
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 322” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, while making it clear that he is going out of his way to believe Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) that he had no idea about the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, while not hiding that he does not want the U.S. lucrative business relationships with SAUDI ARABIA to change, albeit implying that MBS may have had a role to play in the killing, after SAUDI ARABIA eventually admitted that its officials killed the journalist, while merely attributing the death to a chokehold, for MBS officially stating that the killing was a heinous crime committed by people who must be brought to justice, with SAUDI ARABIAN condolence photos showing a pained look on Jamal Khashoggi’s son’s face, as he shook hands with MBS, with the face of a son who thinks he may very well be shaking the hand of the man who was responsible for killing his father, while realizing that SAUDI ARABIA will most probably get away with murder, on the basis of a self-defence chokehold, as money talks the universal language of the official version of the events that transpired.
TURKEY News
During the week ending on Sunday, October 28, 2018, the focus in TURKEY seemed to shift to the TURKISH struggling economy, largely attributable to a lack of confidence by foreign investors, due largely to TURKEY’s repressive crackdown measures on all opposition movements. It is important to note that, several months ago, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan allowed TURKEY’s two-year state of emergency to come to an end but as trials of dissidents and journalists continue, human rights campaigners continue to pressure TURKEY to do more to reverse a suffocating crackdown on free speech. Critics claim that the state of emergency, in place since the failed “Coup D’État” in July of 2016 that killed 250 people and wounded 1,400, has been used to detain opponents of the governing AKP for lengthy periods of time without trial to intimidate dissidents and to prosecute media outlets. That is, more than 120,000 people in the police, military, academia, media and civil service have been detained or dismissed from their jobs, over their alleged links to Fethullah Gulen, who is the exiled TURKISH preacher based now in the U.S., who TURKEY blames as the brains behind the operations for the failed “Coup D’État”.
However, the behaviours of TURKEY’s governing AKP seem to be taking their toll on the TURKISH economy as turbulent politics have resulted in economic turmoil whereby the sliding TURKISH Lira has set-off alarm bells across TURKEY as businesses struggle to cope with the financial impacts of a declining TURKISH Lira. Unfortunately, TURKEY’s fragile economy recently received another economic blow when TURKEY’s growth forecasts for this year and next year were dramatically reduced, triggering further drops in the value of the TURKISH Lira. It is important to note that TURKISH Finance Minister Berat Albayrak stated that growth would be 3.8% this year and 2.3% in 2019, both revised downwards from the initial forecasts of 5.5%. Ironically, TURKEY’s finance minister insisted that TURKEYS’s economy did not face any significant risks, despite the TURKISH Lira plunging to its lowest point after new economic data was released that points to the risk of a sharp economic slowdown in TURKEY. However, the TURKISH Lira that has lost about 40% of its value against the U.S. dollar this year hit severe lows after TURKEY’s economic confidence index also hit extreme lows. It is important to note that U.S. rating agency Moody’s downgraded 20 TURKISH financial institutions due to increased risks of a sudden shift in investor sentiment that could leave TURKISH banks struggling to attract foreign financing that keeps TURKISH banking sector liquid.
Thus, TURKISH banks that borrowed heavily abroad now face the near impossible task of refinancing short-term debt in expensive U.S. Dollars and E.U. Euros. It is important to note that around $180 billion in TURKISH foreign debt matures from now until the end of July of 2019, of which approximately $145 billion is owed by the private sector, particularly TURKISH banks, which borrowed heavily abroad in foreign denominated currencies. Therefore, TURKEY will be hit with a currency mismatch as TURKEY mostly earns returns on investments in TURKISH Lira, while it has to payback its foreign currency denominated debt by converting a plummeting TURKISH Lira, resulting in significantly higher debt payments. However, this week TURKISH Finance Minister Berat Albayrak focused on AZERBAIJAN as an international symposium on economic cooperation between TURKEY and AZERBAIJAN was held in BAKU, AZERBAIJAN on October 24 whereby the AZERBIAJAN Deputy Minister of Economy, Niyazi Safarov, informed the world that AZERBAIJAN’s total investment in the Turkish economy is estimated at $ 14.5 billion. That is, AZERBIAJAN has invested about $13 billion in TURKEY in the oil and gas sector, which includes projects such as TANAP and PETKIM. Meanwhile, TURKEY has invested $11.8 billion in AZERBAIJAN, of which about $ 9 billion has been invested in the oil sector, while the remaining $ 2.8 billion has been invested in the non-oil sector of the AZERBAIJAN economy, making TURKEY the leading investor in the non-oil sector.
Thus, TURKISH Finance Minister Berat Albayrak who declared war on soaring inflation and called on TURKEY’s businesses to cut prices by 10% to counter runaway inflation, that has driven up the price of everything from food to fuel, and sent inflation to 25% last month, its highest in 15 years continued with the firm stance of implementing this policy. Furthermore, TURKEY has already resorted to the seizure of numerous companies that have been accused of conspiring against the TURKISH government with speculation, opportunism and stockpiling. Furthermore, TURKISH police have also raided businesses, based on accusations of speculation, and shops and supermarkets, based on allegations of price gouging. Thus, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is calling on consumers to report shops and businesses for excessive price hikes in order for the police to investigate and resolve accordingly. Nonetheless, TURKEY putting its TURKISH pride aside by now listening to U.S. President Donald Trump’s request to free detained American Pastor, Andrew Craig Brunson, quickly helped the weakening TURKISH Lira due to the withdrawal of U.S. imposed sanctions, such that this was the most intelligent decision Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could make as a quick fix.
However, TURKEY’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued to warn the SYRIAN regime, RUSSIA and IRAN that an all-out military offensive on IDLIB could lead to a disastrous outcome for TURKEY by triggering a new wave of refugees heading towards the TURKISH borders. Thus, the world has been bracing for weeks for the Bashar al-Assad Syrian Arab Army (SAA) to attack IDLIB, where around 2.5 million civilians are living in opposition-held territory with no clear escape routes if fighting escalates. Hence, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reached a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA recently to prevent an all-out attack on IDLIB, as TURKEY is worried that an attack on IDLIB will trigger a mass exodus of refugees fleeing towards the TURKISH border. It is important to note that the weapons, which have entered SYRIA in large quantities recently, including ammunition and GRAD rockets, clearly indicated that TURKEY would be providing complete TURKISH military support, for a long drawn-out battle over IDLIB, if necessary, that functioned as an effective deterrent from a full scale attack by the SAA and its RUSSIAN and IRANIAN backed allies. However, this week, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which includes former AL-QAEDA terrorist fighters among its ranks, seems to be attempting to consolidate power in northern SYRIA with waves of arrests of civilians during the TURKEY and RUSSIAN brokered ceasefire. Therefore, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave the HTS rebels inside the IDLIB buffer zone one last warning to leave the designated RUSSIA and TURKEY designated demilitarized zone. Furthermore, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made it clear that if HTS rebels refuse to leave the designated demilitarized zone, TURKEY will allow the SAA and RUSSIAN Air Force to resume their operations against them in northwestern SYRIA.
Meanwhile last week, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that TURKEY would continue to buy natural gas from IRAN in line with its long-term supply contracts despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to punish countries doing business with IRAN. Hence, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made it clear that TURKEY must be realistic, as TURKEY cannot let people freeze in the winter, so nobody should be offended when the U.S. imposed sanctions are ignored, as TURISH people cannot afford to heat their homes without purchasing IRAN’s natural gas. Furthermore, this week President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued with his juggling acts of competing interests as the first batch of U.S. military personnel arrived in TURKEY to join the training mission for joint patrol activities in MANBIJ, SYRIA. Contemporaneously, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Chinese President Xi Jinping were discussing more trade in their local currencies, while avoiding the U.S. dollar. Simultaneously, TURKEY seems to be negotiating deals with GERMANY as GERMANY needs TURKEY’s cooperation in halting the flow of ISIS fighters, currently hiding in SYRIA, but who often use TURKISH territory to reach the E.U., while TURKEY needs GERMAN technology, investment and financing. Ironically, TURKEY now also seems to be having an affair with RUSSIA, as RUSSIA joined TURKEY in avoiding the U.S. dollar as the two countries formally opened talks for trade in their local currencies while President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has publicly said that the reign of the U.S. dollar as the global trade currency should come to an end.
However, in an unusual chain of events that triggered a change of fate, U.S. Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo met with TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last week in order to try to resolve the international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, whereby the SAUDI ARABIAN officials had promised consequences for anyone, even a member of the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family, found responsible for the assassination. This week, TURKEY led a relentless campaign to hold SAUDI ARABIA accountable, as TURKISH authorities allowed media leaks to the international press, whereby the latest reports indicate that Jamal Khashoggi’s body parts had been found in the garden of SAUDI ARABIA’s consul general’s home in ISTANBUL, TURKEY while a body double put on Jamal Khashoggi’s clothes shortly after he was killed, as a decoy to divert attention from the killing inside the SAUDI ARABIAN embassy. Furthermore, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan formally denounced SAUDI ARABIA for initially trying to deny involvement in the killing, as after weeks of lying, SAUDI ARABIA finally admitted this week that Jamal Khashoggi was dead, such that as per TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, covering up this kind of savagery will hurt the conscience of all humanity.
IRAQ News
As a friendly reminder, there were two obvious potential outcomes from IRAQI political party negotiations with substantial regional and international consequences. That is, the first potential outcome was a coalition headed by Moqtada al-Sadr that would probably mean a diminishing U.S. presence in IRAQ combined with an IRAQI government that is independent of IRAN’s influence while reintegrating an independent and sovereign IRAQ into the Arab world. Conversely, the second potential outcome was a coalition headed by the pro-IRANIAN Fatah Alliance representing the SHIITE militias along with parties loyal to former Prime Ministers Haider al-Abadi and Nouri al-Maliki as well as smaller groups such as the Kurdistan Coalition that would result in an overtly pro-IRANIAN government. Thus, in spite of dramatic differences, the three parties that gained the most votes in IRAQ’s May 12, 2018 parliamentary elections agreed to work together to form a new IRAQI government. However, after the dust settled, Barham Salih was voted by parliament into the position of President with his first act naming Adil Abdul-Mahdi to be prime minister, conditional upon his formation of a government by early November. Thus, IRAQ’s prime minister-designate Adel Abdul Mahdi presented his new cabinet to the IRAQI parliament for approval this week.
Meanwhile this week, uncertainty appeared to be looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, while the traditional political parties remain strong, such that the new president and prime minister will have a difficult time translating recent political developments into concrete changes. However, it is important to note that for the first time ever, the IRAQI parliament voted freely for IRAQ’s next president, with Barham Salih winning by a landslide vote of 219 to 22 over his competitor, while in the past, the parliamentary vote served mainly as a rubber-stamp of election results. Furthermore, immediately after Barham Salih was sworn in as President, he designated Adil Abdal-Mehdi to become prime minister, who is the first prime minister not to come from the Islamic Dawa Party, which has dominated post-invasion IRAQI politics. Nonetheless, further complicating the situation in IRAQ is the U.S. re-imposing sanctions against IRAN as IRAQ finds itself caught in the crossfire between its key allies of IRAN and the U.S. such that IRAQ’s economy could suffer the worst economic collateral damage from the U.S. sanctions on IRAN. Ironically, as soon as the most recent round of U.S. sanctions hit IRAN, current IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al Abadi stated that IRAQ would reluctantly comply but one week later, reality hit IRAQ whereby many IRAQIS are pushing the IRAQI government to maintain trade relations with IRAN. Thus, IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al Abadi had no choice but to formally request that the U.S. provide certain exemptions to IRAQ on specific critical IRANIAN goods with an IRAQI delegation set to travel to Washington as soon as the U.S. counterparts are ready to meet.
Nonetheless, deadly protests continued to rage in IRAQ over the lack of basic services and government corruption as IRAQI security forces were bracing with a rise in violence that has resulted in more solidarity protests throughout IRAQ as activists look to create momentum in their protests against intermittent electricity availabilities, undrinkable water, unemployment and frustrations with the political system. Furthermore, tensions were once again high in IRAQ this week as it became evident that IRAN managed to secure a supportive prime minister, Adil Abdal-Mehdi, and a friendly president, Barham Salih, and for the first time in recent IRAQI history, IRAN helped elect a very supportive speaker of parliament, Mohammed al-Halbousi. It is important to note that IRAN needed to make sure that IRAQ’s new government would not be biased in favour of the U.S., and support the renewed U.S. sanctions, the way IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al Abadi did in the past. Thus, when IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al Abadi adopted the new set of U.S. sanctions against IRAN, while formally requesting an exemption from the U.S., he created an anti-IRAN posture that received the strongest pushback from IRAQ’s political elite leading to his ultimate downfall.
SYRIA News
As a friendly reminder, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN allies continued to focus their attention on the southern province of DERAA where they have intensified their bombing campaign after a ceasefire deal between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels and the Russians broke down. Meanwhile, SAA government forces stated that they have retaken a town that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war that engulfed SYRIA for over seven years now as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war. It is important to note that the SAA along with their RUSSIAN allies are now focusing their attention on IDLIB where they have vowed to wipe out all terrorists. It is important to note that the SAA and RUSSIA have signalled that an all-out offensive to retake the last rebel-held province in SYRIA consisting of IDLIB is only a matter of time. Therefore, the SAA and RUSSIA have triggered rising fears over a major humanitarian crisis as it has become evident that IDLIB will be subject to an intense bombing campaign.
It is important to note that IDLIB is home to nearly three million people, consisting of around half of whom are rebels and civilians transferred from other areas such as ALEPPO, EASTERN GHOUTA and DERAA after they fell to SAA forces following heavy fighting. Furthermore, the situation on the ground is further complicated by the direct presence of TURKEY, which backs certain rebel groups in the area and operates as a guarantor country to ensure the de-escalation zone agreed upon with Russia is respected. However, in recent weeks, TURKISH backed opposition groups in IDLIB have attempted to unify into a new coalition, with some 70,000 fighters pledging to fight against SAA forces but the terrorist group, Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the most dominant rebel force in IDLIB in control of about 60% of the province, has not joined the coalition. Thus, it was a positive development for TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to reach a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA to prevent an all-out attack on IDLIB, as TURKEY is worried that an attack on IDLIB will trigger a mass exodus of refugees fleeing towards the TURKISH border. However, this week, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which includes former AL-QAEDA terrorist fighters among its ranks, seems to be attempting to consolidate power in northern SYRIA with waves of arrests of civilians during the TURKEY and RUSSIAN brokered ceasefire. Therefore, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave the HTS rebels inside the IDLIB buffer zone one last warning to leave the designated RUSSIA and TURKEY designated demilitarized zone. Furthermore, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made it clear that if HTS rebels refuse to leave the designated demilitarized zone, TURKEY will allow the SAA and RUSSIAN Air Force to resume their operations against them in northwestern SYRIA.
Meanwhile, the tensions between IRAN and ISRAEL seem to have continued to escalate again after ISRAELI airstrikes targeted IRANIAN military infrastructure inside SYRIA several weeks ago. Obviously, IRAN condemned the wave of ISRAELI air strikes in SYRIA and clearly stated that these attacks by ISRAEL represent a blatant violation of SYRIA’s sovereignty such that IRAN has backed SYRIA’s right to defend itself against ISRAEL. It is important to note that the strikes were the heaviest strikes carried out by ISRAEL on SYRIA in decades that came right after twenty rockets were fired at ISRAELI military positions in the occupied Golan Heights of SYRIA. It is no secret that the strikes hurt IRAN that has deployed hundreds of troops inside SYRIA as military advisers to the SYRIAN governments Syrian Arab Army (SAA) while thousands of IRANIAN militia armed, trained and financed by IRAN have also been battling SYRIAN rebel forces alongside the SAA. ISRAEL stated that ISRAELI fighter jets struck almost IRAN’s entire military infrastructure inside Syria consisting of some 70 targets in ISRAELS biggest assault since SYRIA’s civil war commenced in 2011.
Subsequently, this week, the tone escalated between ISRAEL and IRAN, as ISRAEL continues to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to be adamant that the IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, the recent announcement by RUSSIA that IRANIAN forces pulled back from the Golan Heights seemed to be a step in the right direction. However, this week tensions seemed to have risen once again as IRANIAN’s were fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency which has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. The new sanctions target IRANIAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN’s auto sector although the toughest sanctions targeting oil exports will not take effect for another four months. However, IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani clearly stated that IRAN would not let the enemy bring IRAN to its knees such that if the enemy thinks they will defeat IRAN, they will take their hope to the grave with them.
Hence, weeks before the U.S. is to re-impose another round of punishing sanctions on IRAN, U.S. President, Donald Trump, warned that the U.S. is developing a new strategy for the war in SYRIA that would focus more heavily on pushing IRAN’s military and its proxy forces out of SYRIA. However, U.S. President, Donald Trump, then seemed to realize that he needed an ally in the Middle East and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY. Nonetheless, U.S. President, Donald Trump, seemed to have initially sided with the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty. Obviously, with the IRANIAN oil embargo plans set to take effect on November 5, 2018, when sanctions kick-in, success of the embargo depends on SAUDI ARABIA pumping extra oil to compensate for the anticipated shortfall. That is, if SAUDI ARABIA does not compensate for IRANIAN oil shortfalls on the international markets, the outcome could be a worldwide oil shock, with rapidly rising prices and massive negative impacts on international markets and trade. Nonetheless, U.S. President, Donald Trump showed some restraint this week by summarizing the whole Jamal Khashoggi scandal with a WOW while qualifying his response to SAUDI ARABIA. That is, U.S. President, Donald Trump made it clear that he is going out of his way to believe Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman’s claim that he had no idea about the attempt to lure Jamal Khashoggi, a prominent critic of the SAUDI ARABIAN government, to the SAUDI ARABIAN Consulate in ISTANBUL, TURKEY where he was killed. Therefore, U.S. President, Donald Trump did not hide from the U.S. realities that he does not want the U.S. lucrative business relationships with SAUDI ARABIA to change. However, U.S. President Donald Trump did for the first time this week imply that the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman may have had a role to play in the killing, after SAUDI ARABIA eventually admitted that its officials killed the journalist while merely attributing the death to a chokehold. Subsequently, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stated that the U.S. had identified some of the SAUDI ARABIAN government and security officials believed to have been involved in Jamal Khashoggi’s murder and would thus take appropriate actions including revoking their U.S. visas.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
This week’s focus in TURKEY seemed to shift to the TURKISH struggling economy, largely attributable to a lack of confidence by foreign investors, due largely to TURKEY’s repressive crackdown measures on all opposition movements. In my opinion, over the last two years, TURKEY has been radically transformed with emergency measures used to consolidate authoritarian powers, silence opposition voices and take away basic human rights and civil liberties. However, the behaviours of TURKEY’s governing AKP seem to be taking their toll on the TURKISH economy, as turbulent politics have resulted in economic turmoil, whereby the sliding TURKISH Lira has set-off alarm bells across TURKEY, as businesses struggle to cope with the financial impacts of a declining TURKISH Lira. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blaming the rest of the world for waging an economic war against TURKEY, while most reputable economists would tend to agree that the TURKISH government has forced their central banks to follow counterproductive, if not destructive, economic policies is a sure sign that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is living in a delusional reality.
In my opinion, the underlying problem is that TURKISH banks and companies borrowed a lot of U.S. dollars, as TURKISH foreign currency debt represents about 30% of TURKEY’s GDP, such that TURKEY is now struggling to pay down the debt as the TURKISH Lira is falling. In my opinion, TURKEY’s economy is struggling in large part due to the TURKISH Lira losing almost 40% of its value against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year. In my opinion, there are a slew of reasons dissuading investors from TURKEY, but at the end of the day, many investors continue to try to liquidate their TURKISH Lira given that it has been dropping fast since the beginning of the year. Thus, the solution from my point-of-view is quite obvious, that TURKEY needs to raise interest rates in order to counter its problems of high inflation and a declining TURKISH Lira, while its economy should be able to bear the brunt of higher interest rates, without significant drops in current production levels.
Thus, this week’s focus of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued to be on TURKEY’s fragile economy, that received another economic blow recently, when TURKEY’s growth forecasts for this year and next were dramatically reduced, triggering further drops in the value of the TURKISH Lira. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY seems to find itself in an awkward position, like a dog chasing its tail, as TURKEY has seen its currency plunge over 40% this year, over investor concerns about President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s influence over monetary policy and a horrible diplomatic separation from the U.S. In my opinion, the TURKISH economic turbulence has shaken global financial markets and created the potential for a banking crisis that could have a disastrous domino effect across the entire global financial markets. In my opinion, TURKEY’s banks face a potential barrage of bad debts as the TURKISH Lira sell-off has driven up the cost for companies to service their foreign currency denominated loans.
That is, TURKISH companies have been borrowing in U.S. Dollars and Euros for years, to take advantage of lower interest rates, but it appears that the private sector has accumulated over $145 billion in foreign currency denominated debt, maturing during the upcoming year. Nonetheless, Berat Albayrak, TURKEY’s finance minister stated that TURKEY does not foresee a big risk on the TURKISH economy and banking system as the TURKISH economy has strong fundamentals. Hence, although THE ROCK kindly and politely offered his consulting services to Berat Albayrak to help TURKEY straighten out their economic and geopolitical mess, Berat Albayrak seems to be heading in the right direction as TURKEY attempts to strengthen its economic ties with neighbour friendly countries. Thus, I was not surprised to see the international symposium on economic cooperation between TURKEY and AZERBAIJAN disclose that AZERBAIJAN’s total investment in the Turkish economy is estimated at $14.5 billion while TURKEY has invested $11.8 billion in AZERBAIJAN. In my opinion, TURKEY seems to be heading in the direction of regional cooperation as both TURKEY and AZERBAIJAN effectively leverage their respective economic and energy capabilities, as well as their geopolitical positions to expand bilateral interests. In my opinion, TURKEY and AZERBAIJAN seem to have emerged as an industrial love story, as both countries have impressively implemented huge projects of international significance, such as the Baku/Tbilisi/Ceyhan oil pipeline, the Baku/Tbilisi/Erzurum gas pipeline, the TANAP Southern Gas Corridor and the Baku/Tbilisi/Kars railway.
In my opinion, Berat Albayrak sounds like President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which is not surprising as he is his son-in-law such that Berat Albayrak seems to be significantly influenced by the President and seems to be extremely reluctant to go against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s firm belief in the need to maintain interest rates stable at around 17%. However, in my opinion, TURKEY faces the risk of a rapid slowdown in the TURKISH economy that could potentially culminate in a difficult recession unless TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, takes urgent steps to rebalance the TURKISH economy while fuelling investor confidence. In my opinion, TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, acted appropriately this week, by declaring war on soaring inflation and calling on TURKEY’s businesses to cut prices by 10% to counter runaway inflation, that has driven up the price of everything from food to fuel, and sent inflation to 25% last month, its highest in 15 years. However, in my opinion, the TURKISH government’s efforts to curtail inflation are more likely to hurt the TURKISH economy than help it because it will require police efforts in order to enforce this economic policy.
In my opinion, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s unorthodox brand of economics whereby inflation should not be contained by raising interest rates or other traditional measures, but rather by employing supply-side measures to reduce costs, may very well work for medium, large and government controlled organizations. Therefore, in a country such as TURKEY that resembles a military controlled state, forcing Turkish companies to lower prices by 10%, accompanied by policing of businesses, shops and supermarkets to verify prices can certainly be implemented. However, there will obviously be collateral damage with reduced margins by businesses and particularly retailers, such that TURKEY will likely have to also force the banks to restructure loans and defer payment schedules. Thus, in my opinion, investors are scared by soaring inflation, widening operating deficits and a declining TURKISH Lira that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has immediately stabilized by releasing Pastor Andrew Brunson. That is, U.S. President Donald Trump doubled tariffs on U.S. imports of TURKISH steel and aluminum in an attempt to force TURKEY to release Pastor Andrew Brunson, which represents a relatively quick economic fix, such that finally Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan put the debate of application of justice aside for a quick fix to the TURKISH economy, as the U.S. does not recognize the admission of circumstantial evidence according to international laws and regulations.
Nonetheless, it seems that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be forced to turn to the E.U., although TURKEY’s bid for E.U. membership has all but expired, as TURKEY will seem to be forced to return to GERMANY to finance TURKISH short-tern needs. However, in my opinion, any E.U. aid is unlikely to be enough while the pledge by QATAR to invest $ 15 billion during the upcoming year seems to have had very little favourable impact on the TURKISH Lira. In my opinion, as inflation rates rise, the TURKISH central bank will be forced to raise interest rates shortly to halt the TURKISH Lira’s free-fall, albeit any interest rate hike may be too little and too late. Thus, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s belief that interest rates are the mother and father of all evil, as a cause of inflation, will now likely result in TURKEY being forced to go to the IMF for bail-out financing although TURKEY continues to rule out this option on the basis that IMF financing represents an unacceptable surrender of TURKISH sovereignty.
In my opinion, I was not surprised to see TURKEY focus its attention on IDLIB and continue to warn the SYRIAN regime, RUSSIA and IRAN, that an all-out military offensive on IDLIB could lead to a disastrous outcome for TURKEY, by triggering a new wave of refugees heading towards the TURKISH borders. In my opinion, TURKEY has already sheltered 3.5 million SYRIANS such that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is under significant domestic pressure to not take in any more refugees. Nonetheless, RUSSIA’s worries about AL-QAEDA linked terrorist groups based in IDLIB are legitimate but a full-scale military attack is not the way to deal with this situation as it will certainly put the lives of all innocent civilians at risk and create a humanitarian crisis. Thus, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan needs to receive full credit for being able to negotiate a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA recently to spare IDLIB from disastrous consequences for the time being. In my opinion, the large quantities of weapons entering SYRIA recently indicated that TURKEY will be providing complete TURKISH military support for a long drawn-out battle over IDLIB, if necessary. Thus, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin once again made the right strategic decision to hold back the SAA and IRANIANS from engaging in a full fledge military assault on IDLIB that in my opinion would have been disastrous for all parties. However, in my opinion the withdrawal of all the so-called radical fighters from the area by October 15, that includes hardline Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is dominated by a rebel faction previously linked to al-Qaeda, were not yet persuaded to leave IDLIB peacefully. Therefore, in my opinion, this week’s actions by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to consolidate power in northern SYRIA with waves of arrests of civilians was irresponsible and on the verge of insane. Thus, in my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was forced to give the HTS rebels one last warning to leave the designated RUSSIA and TURKEY designated demilitarized zone. Furthermore, in my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made the right strategic decision by warning HTS rebels that if they refuse to leave the designated demilitarized zone, TURKEY will allow the SAA and RUSSIAN Air Force to resume their operations against them in SYRIA.
Meanwhile, I was not surprised to see President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stating that TURKEY would continue to buy natural gas from IRAN, in line with its long-term supply contracts, despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to punish countries doing business with IRAN. In my opinion, TURKEY has made it clear that the U.S. imposed sanctions will be ignored, as TURISH people cannot afford to heat their homes without purchasing IRAN’s natural gas, such that economic necessities will take precedence over politics. In regards to TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued with his juggling acts this week of competing interests as the first batch of U.S. military personnel arrived in TURKEY to join the training mission for joint patrol activities in MANBIJ, SYRIA, this is definitely a step in the right direction for peace in the KURDISTAN region of SYRIA. In regards to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussing more trade in their local currencies, while avoiding the U.S. dollar, it is obvious that both TURKEY and CHINA are furious at recent imposed U.S. tariffs such that they will engage in transactions in domestic currencies in an attempt to weaken the demand for U.S. Dollars. In regards to GERMANY needing TURKEY’s cooperation in halting the flow of ISIS fighters, currently hiding in SYRIA, while TURKEY needs GERMAN technology, investment and financing, TURKEY is leveraging GERMANY perfectly to fuel its economic needs. In regards to TURKEY having an affair with RUSSIA, as RUSSIA joined TURKEY in avoiding the U.S. dollar, with the goal that the reign of the U.S. dollar as the global trade currency come to an end, I am not surprised to see RUSSIA pushing against the U.S. Dollar as RUSSIA perceives that a weakened demand for the U.S. Dollar will trigger an increased demand for the RUSSIAN Ruble and TURKISH Lira.
In my opinion, U.S. Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo was obligated to meet with TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last week in order to try to resolve the international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY. Furthermore, consequences for anyone, even a member of the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family, found responsible for the assassination, must be enforced to the fullest extent of the law as the audio recordings of Jamal Khashoggi being assaulted, tortured, killed and dismembered inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate, are disturbing and down right psychopathic in nature. In my opinion, such an operation would have required the informal blessing of the SAUDI ARABIAN crown prince, albeit obviously innocent until proven guilty, albeit likely will never be proven guilty as there is probably no substantive evidence to prove such a direct link to the SAUDI ARABIAN crown prince. Nonetheless, TURKEY led a relentless campaign to hold SAUDI ARABIA accountable, as TURKISH authorities allowed media leaks to the international press, whereby the latest reports indicate that Jamal Khashoggi’s body parts had been found in the garden of SAUDI ARABIA’s consul general’s home in ISTANBUL, TURKEY while a body double put on Jamal Khashoggi’s clothes shortly after he was killed, as a decoy to divert attention from the killing inside the SAUDI ARABIAN embassy. In my opinion, TURKEY has gone to such great lengths to put, and keep, pressure on SAUDI ARABIA because the murder happened in TURKEY that is embarrassing for TURKEY’s government. However, more importantly, TURKEY and SAUDI ARABIA have been locked in years-long battles for the future of the MIDDLE EAST, particularly over the importance of religion and WESTERN influence in MIDDLE EASTERN politics, such that blasting SAUDI ARABIA over the Khashoggi scandal, specifically Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, SAUDI ARABIA’s leader, is to TURKEY’s advantage as it gives TURKEY a critical advantage in the struggle for geopolitical supremacy in the MIDDLE EAST.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
As a friendly reminder, either a coalition under Moqtada al-Sadr was expected to emerge or a pro-IRANIAN coalition under the Fatah Alliance was expected to emerge such that either way, it seemed that the U.S. presence in IRAQ would likely diminish over time. Ironically, after months of negotiations, Barham Salih was voted by parliament into the position of President with his first act naming Adil Abdul-Mahdi to be prime minister, conditional upon his formation of a government by early November. Thus, it seems that the results of the elections were bypassed for the benefit of stability, as this new duo represents the old IRAQI regime, as both have been active in IRAQI politics since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003. That is, President Barham Salih was previously deputy prime minister of IRAQ and Prime Minister of IRAQI Kurdistan while Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi was formerly vice president of IRAQ and more recently oil minister. Thus, in my opinion, the election of President Barham Salih, a KURD, and his nomination of Adil Abdul-Mahdi to be prime minister, a Shiite, seems to have broken months of political deadlock in IRAQ after an inconclusive May election result that everybody seems to have agreed to scrap.
In regards to this weeks uncertainty looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, while the new president and prime minister will have a difficult time translating recent political developments into concrete changes. Nonetheless, it is important to note that for the first time ever, the IRAQI parliament voted freely for IRAQ’s next president, with Barham Salih winning by a landslide vote of 219 to 22 over his competitor representing a step in the right direction given that a clear majority acclaimed Barham Salih. Thus, in my opinion, this vote marks a departure from last summer’s election shake-up, with some two-thirds of the members of IRAQI parliament now being new to the job, as a growing protest movements exposed IRAQI citizen disillusionment with the political process, while increasing pressure on the IRAQI parliament for significant change. Nonetheless, in my opinion, poor governance, lack of public infrastructure and high levels of corruption, particularly in poor SUNNI areas, is helping to fuel ISIS’s objectives of a comeback after its crushing defeat. Unfortunately for IRAQ, the U.S. sanctions on IRAN seem to be arriving at the worst possible time, as the embargo on its IRANIAN neighbour could hit jobs in IRAQ and cut off a crucial source of relatively cheap imports into IRAQ.
In my opinion, with 80% of the products on the market in IRAQ being IRANIAN made, if the border closes, it will be an economic crisis for IRAQ. Thus, I was not surprised to see many IRAQIS pushing the IRAQI government to maintain trade relations with IRAN because IRAQ, which shares around 1,450 kilometers of border with IRAN, will be badly hurt by the IRANIAN sanctions. In my opinion, Iraq relies on IRAN for gas supplies, electricity, water and food such that the U.S. has placed IRAQ in a loser position as by attempting to cut-off the head of IRAN, the U.S. cut-off the waist of IRAQ such that although IRAN suffers most without its head, IRAQ is unable to reproduce without its waist. In my opinion, IRAQ will certainly experience shortages of key products if IRAQ complies with all of the U.S. sanctions that could lead to political turmoil at a critical crossroads period in IRAQI politics. Therefore, I was not surprised to see Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi clearly state that IRAQ has presented the U.S. with a framework from which the IRAQI delegation will go to the U.S. to negotiate with a clear vision of what IRAQ really needs which includes IRANIAN natural gas, electricity and other critical trade related products that fuel the IRAQI economy.
Nonetheless, I was not surprised to see the deadly protests continuing to rage in IRAQ this week over the lack of basic services and government corruption as IRAQI security forces were bracing for new rounds of violent protests. In my opinion, intermittent electricity availabilities, undrinkable water, unemployment and frustrations with the political system will certainly result in more IRAQI protests. In my opinion, it is easier said than done for IRAQI security forces to protect and facilitate peaceful demonstrations when frustrated IRAQI populace hurl stones and Molotov cocktails at local IRAQI government buildings and IRAQI security forces. Furthermore, I was not surprised to see tensions once again high in IRAQ this week as it became evident that IRAN managed to secure a supportive prime minister, Adil Abdal-Mehdi, and a friendly president, Barham Salih, and for the first time in recent IRAQI history, IRAN helped elect a very supportive speaker of parliament, Mohammed al-Halbousi. Thus, in my opinion, IRAN seems to have emerged as a trusted ally for IRAQ, even though IRAQ seems to be heading in the direction of diversity and less sectarian politics. In my opinion, IRAN’s recent victory against the U.S. and SAUDI ARABIA in the IRAQI political landscape is, first and foremost, a result of the trust IRAN has built in IRAQ over decades. Furthermore, the U.S. does not seem to be a trusted partner in IRAQ due to inconsistent U.S. policies as the IRAQI Shiite Muslims believe the U.S. allowed the regime of Saddam Hussein to crush them in 1991, and did nothing to stop ISIS’s advances in 2014; while the IRAQI Sunni Muslims consider the 2003 U.S. occupation and fall of Saddam Hussein as a U.S. betrayal; while the KURDS, were alienated by the U.S. inaction in the face of ISIS advances in 2014 and their loss of KIRKUK to IRAQ’s central government in 2017. Therefore, in my opinion, most IRAQI’s now view IRAN as a consistent force such that although they may not support all of IRAN’s policies, they seem to trust IRAN’s consistency, that took IRAN decades to build this trust, while it took the U.S. decades to lose the IRAQI trust.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN ally recently focused their attention on the southern province of DERAA where they have intensified their bombing campaign after a ceasefire deal between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels and the Russians broke down. I was not surprised to see the intensification of air raids as SYRIAN troops have vowed to advance steadily to recapture lost territory until such time as a ceasefire agreement is negotiated. Thus, I was not surprised when SAA government forces retook a town that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war.
Thus, in my opinion, the shift now in focus of the SAA campaign to IDLIB is expected, as it is unacceptable that terrorists, particularly the AL-NUSRA FRONT, are using the de-escalation area of IDLIB to attack the SYRIAN army and to also attack the RUSSIAN military bases in the area by utilizing drones. However, in my opinion, TURKISH backed opposition groups in IDLIB that have attempted to unify into a new coalition, with some 70,000 fighters pledging to fight against SAA forces without the terrorist group, Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the most dominant rebel force in IDLIB in control of about 60% of the province, will not be able to indefinitely withstand the impending SAA and RUSSIAN military onslaught. Furthermore, in my opinion, a major military operation in IDLIB could pose a particularly threatening humanitarian crisis because there is no opposition held territory remaining in SYRIA, where people could be evacuated to, such that as many as 2.5 million SYRIANS could try to flee to the closed TURKISH border, creating a new refugee crisis of catastrophic proportions. Hence, in my opinion, although RUSSIA’s worries about AL-QAEDA linked terrorist groups based in IDLIB are legitimate, a full-scale military attack is not the way to deal with this situation as it will certainly put the lives of all innocent civilians at risk and create a humanitarian crisis. Thus, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan needs to receive full credit for being able to negotiate a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA to spare IDLIB from disastrous consequences for the time being. In my opinion, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin is by far the best negotiator currently in the region, who always seems to be able to remain cool, calm and collected, as he once again made the right strategic decision to hold back the SAA and IRANIANS from engaging in a full fledge military assault on IDLIB that in my opinion would have been disastrous for all parties. However, in my opinion the withdrawal of all the so-called radical fighters from the area by October 15, that includes hardline Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is dominated by a rebel faction previously linked to al-Qaeda, were not yet persuaded to leave IDLIB peacefully. Therefore, in my opinion, this week’s actions by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to consolidate power in northern SYRIA with waves of arrests of civilians was irresponsible and on the verge of insane. Thus, in my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was forced to give the HTS rebels one last warning to leave the designated RUSSIA and TURKEY designated demilitarized zone. Furthermore, in my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made the right strategic decision by warning HTS rebels that if they refuse to leave the designated demilitarized zone, TURKEY will allow the SAA and RUSSIAN Air Force to resume their operations against them in SYRIA.
Meanwhile, in regards to this week’s escalation of tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN, I am not surprised to see ISRAEL continuing to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. In my opinion, ISRAEL will not back down from its position that IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, last week’s announcement by RUSSIA that IRANIAN forces have pulled back from the Golan Heights should be welcomed as a positive development although ISRAEL clearly stated that such a pull back is insufficient with no compromises or concessions from ISRAEL’s position of a complete withdrawal being necessary. In my opinion, this week tensions have obviously risen once again since IRANIAN’s were fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency which has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. The new sanctions that target IRANIAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN’s auto sector that took effect seem to reflect the U.S. belief that IRAN will eventually surrender via the pressure tactics of sanctions. However, in my opinion IRAN’s pride runs through the veins of a majority of IRANIANS who would prefer to eat sand and drink sewage water before conceding to U.S. pressure tactics via sanctions.
Hence, I was not surprised to see IRAN’s nuclear chief, Ali Akbar Salehi, warn that IRAN stands ready to build advanced centrifuges and further enrich uranium as part of a restart of its nuclear program. Furthermore, I was not surprised to see ISRAELI Intelligence Minister Yisrael Katz specify that if IRAN presses forward with its nuclear program, IRAN will face a direct threat from the U.S. and its allies. In my opinion, the U.S. withdrawal from the IRAN nuclear deal has already badly shaken IRAN’s economy, crashing its currency, the IRANAN Rial, such that IRAN will have to choose to either come back to the negotiating table with the U.S. or watch its IRANIAN economy suffer from re-imposed U.S. sanctions. Thus, I was not surprised at U.S. President, Donald Trump warning that the U.S. is developing a new strategy for the war in SYRIA that would focus more heavily on pushing IRAN’s military and its proxy forces out of SYRIA. In my opinion, the new U.S. strategy would probably not involve the U.S. military directly targeting and killing IRANIAN soldiers or IRANIAN proxies, given that the U.S. military only has the right of self-defence authorization in SYRIA, and thus should only strike IRANIAN targets if the U.S. feels threatened. In my opinion, the U.S. plan will likely focus on political and diplomatic efforts to force IRAN out of SYRIA by squeezing SYRIA financially. That is, the U.S. will likely withhold reconstruction aid from areas where IRANIAN and RUSSIAN forces are present and also impose sanctions on RUSSIAN and IRANIAN companies working on reconstruction in SYRIA. Ironically, IRAN seems to be heading in the direction of weathering the storm created by the crippling U.S. sanctions on IRAN’s oil industry that are still scheduled to come back into full force in November. Therefore, IRAN’s strategy seems to be heading in the direction of maintaining a status-quo arrangement until the fate of U.S. President Donald Trump becomes clearer in terms of whether he will ultimately be elected to serve a second term in 2020.
However, U.S. President, Donald Trump, then seemed to realize that he needed an ally in the Middle East and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY. Nonetheless, I am not surprised that U.S. President, Donald Trump, seems to have sided with the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by initially speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty. However, in my opinion, U.S. President, Donald Trump was forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, while making it clear that he is going out of his way to believe Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman’s claim, that he had no idea about the attempt to lure Jamal Khashoggi, a prominent critic of the SAUDI ARABIAN government, to the SAUDI ARABIAN Consulate in ISTANBUL, TURKEY where he was killed. Furthermore, I was not surprised that U.S. President, Donald Trump did not hide from the U.S. realities that he does not want the U.S. lucrative business relationships with SAUDI ARABIA to change. However, I was surprised with U.S. President Donald Trump, for the first time this week, implying that the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman may have had a role to play in the killing, after SAUDI ARABIA eventually admitted that its officials killed the journalist while merely attributing the death to a chokehold. Therefore, I was also surprised to see Secretary of State Mike Pompeo formally stating that the U.S. had identified some of the SAUDI ARABIAN government and security officials believed to have been involved in Jamal Khashoggi’s murder and would thus take appropriate actions including revoking their U.S. visas.
In my opinion, the current situation in the Middle East depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War that would likely be triggered by a direct ISRAEL and IRAN conflict, such that all leaders across the globe must avoid the temptation to look away but rather should increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, minimize civilian casualties, prevent the further use of chemical weapons and alleviate the humanitarian crisis from a civil war spiralling out of control with no end in sight, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the Middle East. That being said, the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW this week, while making it clear that he is going out of his way to believe Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman’s claim, that he had no idea about the attempt to lure and kill Jamal Khashoggi, as he does not want the U.S. lucrative business relationships with SAUDI ARABIA to change, albeit implying that the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman may have had a role to play in the killing, after SAUDI ARABIA eventually admitted that its officials killed the journalist while merely attributing the death to a chokehold, for the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to officially state that the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi was a heinous crime committed by people who must be brought to justice. Thus, in my opinion, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman played the best social media card possible in the situation, with SAUDI ARABIAN condolence photos showing a pained look on Jamal Khashoggi’s son’s face as he shook hands with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman. Nonetheless, in my opinion, King Salman and the Crown Prince did the right strategic move by receiving Jamal Khashoggi’s son Salah and his brother Sahel at the Yamama Palace in Riyadh, SAUDI ARABIA where the two royals formally expressed their condolences. Nonetheless, in my opinion, the photos speak for themselves with the face of a son who thinks he may very well be shaking the hand of the man who was responsible for killing his father while realizing that SAUDI ARABIA will most probably get away with murder, on the basis of a self-defence chokehold, as money talks the universal language of the official version of the events that transpired.
In my opinion, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, although ISIS was literally disappearing from the face of the map in SYRIA, new showdowns between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) only serves to fuel the re-emergence of ISIS as a dangerous player in SYRIA. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS. Thus, in my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and utter madness.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 322” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, while making it clear that he is going out of his way to believe Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) that he had no idea about the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, while not hiding that he does not want the U.S. lucrative business relationships with SAUDI ARABIA to change, albeit implying that MBS may have had a role to play in the killing, after SAUDI ARABIA eventually admitted that its officials killed the journalist, while merely attributing the death to a chokehold, for MBS officially stating that the killing was a heinous crime committed by people who must be brought to justice, with SAUDI ARABIAN condolence photos showing a pained look on Jamal Khashoggi’s son’s face, as he shook hands with MBS, with the face of a son who thinks he may very well be shaking the hand of the man who was responsible for killing his father, while realizing that SAUDI ARABIA will most probably get away with murder, on the basis of a self-defence chokehold, as money talks the universal language of the official version of the events that transpired.
Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:
October 28, 2018
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