World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 319

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 319” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump has made it clear that IRAN is the central banker of international terrorism, such that the U.S. will be implementing a wider strategy for countering IRAN in the MIDDLE EAST, whereby the U.S. strategy towards IRAN will consist of both military and non-military means, to push back on IRANIAN-backed militants and their financial backers, as U.S. President Donald Trump is no different in politics then he was in business, in the sense that he is firm, strong, persuasive, relentless, passionate, driven and full of resolve, such that I believe IRAN will eventually be forced back to the negotiating table, over its ballistic missile program and involvement throughout the MIDDLE EAST, such that IRAN should think strategically with a long-term focus, whereby IRAN will be hit next month, from new U.S. imposed sanctions on IRAN’s oil sector, with the aim of stopping IRAN’s involvement in conflicts in SYRIA and IRAQ, while forcing IRAN back to the negotiation table, such that it would be more logical, rational and coherent to agree to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump before these sanctions kick-in, as it is not a good strategic decision to play poker with U.S. President Donald Trump over the U.S. imposed sanctions, as although the U.S. is not looking to go to war with IRAN, the U.S. will significantly constrain IRAN’s abilities to operate in the MIDDLE EAST, with extreme measures, while IRAN’s exceptional negotiating team should be able to negotiate reasonable measures with the new U.S. team, such that spiteful IRANIAN egos that prefer to swallow painful poison pills from U.S. imposed sanctions, only to eventually be forced to meet, after IRAN’s economy significantly bleeds, are making decisions based on personal vindictive gratification needs, while U.S. President Donald Trump will cripple all of IRAN’s business feeds.

TURKEY News

During the week ending on Sunday, October 7, 2018, the focus in TURKEY seemed to shift to the TURKISH struggling economy, largely attributable to a lack of confidence by foreign investors, due largely to TURKEY’s repressive crackdown measures on all opposition movements. It is important to note that, several months ago, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan allowed TURKEY’s two-year state of emergency to come to an end but as trials of dissidents and journalists continue, human rights campaigners continue to pressure TURKEY to do more to reverse a suffocating crackdown on free speech. Critics claim that the state of emergency, in place since the failed “Coup D’État” in July of 2016 that killed 250 people and wounded 1,400, has been used to detain opponents of the governing AKP for lengthy periods of time without trial to intimidate dissidents and to prosecute media outlets. That is, more than 120,000 people in the police, military, academia, media and civil service have been detained or dismissed from their jobs, over their alleged links to Fethullah Gulen, who is the exiled TURKISH preacher based now in the U.S., who TURKEY blames as the brains behind the operations for the failed “Coup D’État”.

However, the behaviours of TURKEY’s governing AKP seem to be taking their toll on the TURKISH economy as turbulent politics have resulted in economic turmoil whereby the sliding TURKISH Lira has set-off alarm bells across TURKEY as businesses struggle to cope with the financial impacts of a declining TURKISH Lira. Unfortunately, last week TURKEY’s fragile economy received another economic blow when TURKEY’s growth forecasts for this year and next year were dramatically reduced, triggering further drops in the value of the TURKISH Lira. It is important to note that TURKISH Finance Minister Berat Albayrak stated that growth would be 3.8% this year and 2.3% in 2019, both revised downwards from the initial forecasts of 5.5%. Ironically, TURKEY’s finance minister insisted that TURKEYS’s economy did not face any significant risks, despite the TURKISH Lira plunging to its lowest point after new economic data was released that points to the risk of a sharp economic slowdown in TURKEY. However, the TURKISH Lira that has lost about 40% of its value against the U.S. dollar this year hit severe lows after TURKEY’s economic confidence index also hit extreme lows. It is important to note that U.S. rating agency Moody’s downgraded 20 TURKISH financial institutions due to increased risks of a sudden shift in investor sentiment that could leave TURKISH banks struggling to attract foreign financing that keeps TURKISH banking sector liquid.

Thus, TURKISH banks that borrowed heavily abroad now face the near impossible task of refinancing short-term debt in expensive U.S. Dollars and E.U. Euros. It is important to note that around $180 billion in TURKISH foreign debt matures from now until the end of July of 2019, of which approximately $145 billion is owed by the private sector, particularly TURKISH banks, which borrowed heavily abroad in foreign denominated currencies. Therefore, TURKEY will be hit with a currency mismatch as TURKEY mostly earns returns on investments in TURKISH Lira, while it has to payback its foreign currency denominated debt by converting a plummeting TURKISH Lira, resulting in significantly higher debt payments. However, this week TURKISH Finance Minister Berat Albayrak stated that TURKEY has now turned the corner on inflation, leaving the worst behind, as September’ 2018 was the worst month for inflation. It is important to note that TURKISH Finance Minister Berat Albayrak stated that the rising trend in inflation that has peaked at 24.52%, would reverse direction after October’ 2018, moving the inflation rate closer to TURKEY’s targets of 20.8% by the end of 2018, 15.9% for 2019, 9.8% for 2020 and 6% for 2021. As per TURKISH Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, TURKEY has defended its fiscal policies against speculative attacks carried out through foreign exchange rates and TURKISH Lira liquidity, laying the groundwork for a total fight against inflation in the upcoming months. Nonetheless, TURKEY seems to prefer to put its TURKISH pride first by ignoring U.S. President Donald Trump’s request to free detained American Pastor, Andrew Craig Brunson, which could quickly end TURKEY’s Lira weakening crisis due to the effects of U.S. imposed sanctions.

In regards to the U.S. demands to release American Pastor, Andrew Craig Brunson, who has been held for nearly two years in TURKEY in a case that has strained relations between the two countries, TURKISH officials met with U.S. officials for high level meetings in Washington a couple of months ago without an apparent resolution. As a friendly reminder, Pastor Andrew Brunson from North Carolina went before a TURKISH judge to enter his plea of not guilty to any wrongdoing although he currently faces up to 35 years in prison. Ironically, Pastor Andrew Brunson clearly stated that he does not accept any of the allegations or accusations, as he did not engage in any illegal activities, and did not have any relations with anyone engaged in such activities, as a Christian pastor, whose aims are different from both the KURDISH PKK and FETO. Thus, U.S. President Donald Trump has thrown his full support behind the release of Pastor Andrew Brunson culminating with U.S. President Donald Trump being unhappy with TURKEY’s decision not to release him, resulting in sanctions being imposed. However, TURKEY’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues to ignore the U.S. request although the TURKISH Lira has dropped steadily since the U.S. ordered tariffs on TURKEY in retaliation for the detention of Pastor Andrew Brunson. Nonetheless, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated last week, that only a TURKISH court, not politicians, would decide the fate of the American pastor, regardless of strained relations with the U.S. Therefore, this week, Pastor Andrew Brunson returned to the TURKISH judicial system, petitioning TURKEY’s highest Constitutional Court with an appeal for his release from house arrest, following a lower court refusal to free him, and to lift a travel ban against him, although he had been living in TURKEY for over thirty years.

As a friendly reminder, in an unusual show of solidarity with IRAN, Turkish President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan told his IRANIAN counterpart Hassan Rouhani that he found the U.S. decision to withdraw from a 2015 nuclear deal with IRAN to be wrong. Meanwhile, ISRAEL and TURKEY relations continued to be soured, as TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated his resolve to advance the interests of TURKEY with the MUSLIM world including IRAN and the PALESTINIANS. Therefore, ISRAEL and TURKEY once again appear to be on a collision course that is not GAZA or the peace process with the PALESTINIANS but rather ISRAEL and TURKEY relations appear to still be soured after TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blasted the new ISRAELI nation state law as embodying the spirit of Hitler. Not surprisingly, as ISRAELI and TURKISH relations are strained, so too are the relations between TURKEY and the west, as the U.S. placed two TURKISH ministers on the U.S. Global Magnitsky list.

However, TURKEY’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued to warn the SYRIAN regime, RUSSIA and IRAN that an all-out military offensive on IDLIB could lead to a disastrous outcome for TURKEY by triggering a new wave of refugees heading towards the TURKISH borders. Thus, the world has been bracing for weeks for the Bashar al-Assad Syrian Arab Army (SAA) to attack IDLIB, where around 2.5 million civilians are living in opposition-held territory with no clear escape routes if fighting escalates. Hence, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reached a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA recently to prevent an all-out attack on IDLIB, as TURKEY is worried that an attack on IDLIB will trigger a mass exodus of refugees fleeing towards the TURKISH border. It is important to note that the weapons, which have entered SYRIA in large quantities recently, including ammunition and GRAD rockets, clearly indicated that TURKEY would be providing complete TURKISH military support, for a long drawn-out battle over IDLIB, if necessary, that functioned as an effective deterrent from a full scale attack by the SAA and its RUSSIAN and IRANIAN backed allies. However, this week, the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels made it clear that they do not trust RUSSIA who is clearly President Bashar al-Assad’s most powerful ally. Thus, the planned presence of RUSSIAN forces in the neutral zone is one of several issues that the FSA finds disturbing, while the withdrawal of insurgents deemed radical by TURKEY from the area by October 15, 2018, seems to be contested by the radical group, Tahrir al-Sham, that has not yet said whether they will comply with the agreement.

Meanwhile last week, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that TURKEY would continue to buy natural gas from IRAN in line with its long-term supply contracts despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to punish countries doing business with IRAN. Hence, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made it clear that TURKEY must be realistic, as TURKEY cannot let people freeze in the winter, so nobody should be offended when the U.S. imposed sanctions are ignored, as TURISH people cannot afford to heat their homes without purchasing IRAN’s natural gas. Furthermore, this week President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued with his juggling acts of competing interests as the first batch of U.S. military personnel arrived in TURKEY to join the training mission for joint patrol activities in MANBIJ, SYRIA. Contemporaneously, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Chinese President Xi Jinping were discussing more trade in their local currencies, while avoiding the U.S. dollar. Simultaneously, TURKEY seems to be negotiating deals with GERMANY as GERMANY needs TURKEY’s cooperation in halting the flow of ISIS fighters, currently hiding in SYRIA, but who often use TURKISH territory to reach the E.U., while TURKEY needs GERMAN technology, investment and financing. Ironically, TURKEY now also seems to be having an affair with RUSSIA, as RUSSIA joined TURKEY in avoiding the U.S. dollar as the two countries formally opened talks for trade in their local currencies while President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has publicly said that the reign of the U.S. dollar as the global trade currency should come to an end.

IRAQ News

As a friendly reminder, there were two obvious potential outcomes from IRAQI political party negotiations with substantial regional and international consequences. That is, the first potential outcome was a coalition headed by Moqtada al-Sadr that would probably mean a diminishing U.S. presence in IRAQ combined with an IRAQI government that is independent of IRAN’s influence while reintegrating an independent and sovereign IRAQ into the Arab world. Conversely, the second potential outcome was a coalition headed by the pro-IRANIAN Fatah Alliance representing the SHIITE militias along with parties loyal to former Prime Ministers Haider al-Abadi and Nouri al-Maliki as well as smaller groups such as the Kurdistan Coalition that would result in an overtly pro-IRANIAN government. Nonetheless, IRAQ’s parliament ordered a full recount of IRAQ’s recent parliamentary election that resulted in a shock victory for SHIA leader Muqtada al-Sadr. Furthermore, in spite of dramatic differences, the three parties that gained the most votes in IRAQ’s May 12, 2018 parliamentary elections agreed to work together to form a new IRAQI government. Ironically, the driving force behind this odd alliance is SHIA cleric Muqtada al-Sadr who seems to be ready, willing and able to work with Hadi al-Amiri, head of the most powerful IRAN-backed SHIA militia and outgoing president Haidar al-Abadi, the U.S. choice to head the new IRAQI government. However, after the dust settled, Barham Salih was voted by parliament into the position of President with his first act naming Adil Abdul-Mahdi to be prime minister, conditional upon his formation of a government in the next 30 days.

Meanwhile this week, uncertainty appeared to be looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, while the election results still hang in the backdrop without any conclusive outcome other that the likelihood of a coalition government amongst the three major political players as discussed above. Further complicating the situation in IRAQ is the U.S. re-imposing sanctions against IRAN as IRAQ finds itself caught in the crossfire between its key allies of IRAN and the U.S. such that IRAQ’s economy could suffer the worst economic collateral damage from the U.S. sanctions on IRAN. Ironically, as soon as the most recent round of U.S. sanctions hit IRAN, current IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al Abadi stated that IRAQ would reluctantly comply but one week later, reality hit IRAQ whereby many IRAQIS are pushing the IRAQI government to maintain trade relations with IRAN. Thus, IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al Abadi had no choice but to formally request that the U.S. provide certain exemptions to IRAQ on specific critical IRANIAN goods with an IRAQI delegation set to travel to Washington as soon as the U.S. counterparts are ready to meet.

Nonetheless, deadly protests continued to rage in IRAQ over the lack of basic services and government corruption as IRAQI security forces were bracing with a rise in violence that has resulted in more solidarity protests throughout IRAQ as activists look to create momentum in their protests against intermittent electricity availabilities, undrinkable water, unemployment and frustrations with a political system that has failed to form a new IRAQI government nearly four months after the IRAQI national elections were held. Meanwhile, social media star Tara Fares, a former Miss Baghdad, and runner-up for Miss Iraq, was assassinated in broad daylight when a gunman rode up to her car on a motorcycle and shot her point blank dead. It is important to note that along with 22-year-old Tara Fares, feminist and activist Suaad al-Ali was gunned down in the city of Basra, in southern Iraq along with two other separate incidences where beauticians, Rasha al-Hassan and Rafif al-Yasiri, were also killed in mysterious circumstances, one week apart. Thus, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi stated that the killings do not appear to be random and thus ordered an investigation into whether the assassinations were linked, as the nature of the crimes gives the impression that there was coordinated effort behind these crimes, with the purpose to make some sort of political statement.

Unfortunately, further exacerbating tensions this week in IRAQ was the war of words, with the U.S. still furious at IRANIAN backed militias, for attacking U.S. facilities in IRAQ such that the U.S. clearly stated that it will hold IRAN responsible for any future assaults like the ones recently targeting the U.S. consulate in BASRA and the U.S. embassy in the capital of BAGHDAD. Thus, tensions were once again high in IRAQ such that U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blamed IRAN for threats to U.S. missions in IRAQ and stated that the U.S. was terminating a treaty of amity with IRAN. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also announced the closing of the U.S. consulate in the IRAQI city of BASRA on the basis that U.S. intelligence indicates that IRAN’s Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and his hit men are supporting the recent attacks on the U.S. However, on a positive note, voters in the semi-autonomous KURDISTAN Region of IRAQ elected a new parliament on Sunday that is responsible for passing laws in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Given that historically, there is not a sufficient majority block to form the government, since the region established its autonomy in 1991, the government has once again taken the form of a coalition between the two parties that have traditionally controlled KURDISTAN’s biggest cities, consisting of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), based in the capital ERBIL, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), based in SULAIMANIYA.

SYRIA News

As a friendly reminder, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN allies continued to focus their attention on the southern province of DERAA where they have intensified their bombing campaign after a ceasefire deal between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels and the Russians broke down. Meanwhile, SAA government forces stated that they have retaken a town that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war that engulfed SYRIA for over seven years now as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war. It is important to note that the SAA along with their RUSSIAN allies are now focusing their attention on IDLIB where they have vowed to wipe out all terrorists. It is important to note that the SAA and RUSSIA have signalled that an all-out offensive to retake the last rebel-held province in SYRIA consisting of IDLIB is only a matter of time. Therefore, the SAA and RUSSIA have triggered rising fears over a major humanitarian crisis as it has become evident that IDLIB will be subject to an intense bombing campaign.

It is important to note that IDLIB is home to nearly three million people, consisting of around half of whom are rebels and civilians transferred from other areas such as ALEPPO, EASTERN GHOUTA and DERAA after they fell to SAA forces following heavy fighting. Furthermore, the situation on the ground is further complicated by the direct presence of TURKEY, which backs certain rebel groups in the area and operates as a guarantor country to ensure the de-escalation zone agreed upon with Russia is respected. However, in recent weeks, TURKISH backed opposition groups in IDLIB have attempted to unify into a new coalition, with some 70,000 fighters pledging to fight against SAA forces but the terrorist group, Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the most dominant rebel force in IDLIB in control of about 60% of the province, has not joined the coalition. Thus, it was a positive development for TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to reach a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA to prevent an all-out attack on IDLIB, as TURKEY is worried that an attack on IDLIB will trigger a mass exodus of refugees fleeing towards the TURKISH border. However, this week, the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels made it clear that they do not trust RUSSIA who is clearly President Bashar al-Assad’s most powerful ally. Thus, the planned presence of RUSSIAN forces in the neutral zone is one of several issues that the FSA finds disturbing, while the withdrawal of insurgents deemed radical by TURKEY from the area by October 15, 2018, seems to be contested by the radical group, Tahrir al-Sham, that has not yet said whether they will comply with the agreement.

Meanwhile, the tensions between IRAN and ISRAEL seem to have continued to escalate again after ISRAELI airstrikes targeted IRANIAN military infrastructure inside SYRIA several weeks ago. Obviously, IRAN condemned the wave of ISRAELI air strikes in SYRIA and clearly stated that these attacks by ISRAEL represent a blatant violation of SYRIA’s sovereignty such that IRAN has backed SYRIA’s right to defend itself against ISRAEL. It is important to note that the strikes were the heaviest strikes carried out by ISRAEL on SYRIA in decades that came right after twenty rockets were fired at ISRAELI military positions in the occupied Golan Heights of SYRIA. It is no secret that the strikes hurt IRAN that has deployed hundreds of troops inside SYRIA as military advisers to the SYRIAN governments Syrian Arab Army (SAA) while thousands of IRANIAN militia armed, trained and financed by IRAN have also been battling SYRIAN rebel forces alongside the SAA. ISRAEL stated that ISRAELI fighter jets struck almost IRAN’s entire military infrastructure inside Syria consisting of some 70 targets in ISRAELS biggest assault since SYRIA’s civil war commenced in 2011.

Subsequently, this week, the tone escalated between ISRAEL and IRAN, as ISRAEL continues to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to be adamant that the IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, the recent announcement by RUSSIA that IRANIAN forces pulled back from the Golan Heights seemed to be a step in the right direction. However, this week tensions seemed to have risen once again as IRANIAN’s were fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency which has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. The new sanctions target IRANIAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN’s auto sector although the toughest sanctions targeting oil exports will not take effect for another four months. However, IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani clearly stated that IRAN would not let the enemy bring IRAN to its knees such that if the enemy thinks they will defeat IRAN, they will take their hope to the grave with them.

Hence, U.S. President Donald Trump made it clear this week that IRAN is the central banker of international terrorism, such that the U.S. will be implementing a wider strategy for countering IRAN in the MIDDLE EAST, whereby the U.S. strategy towards IRAN will consist of both military and non-military means to push back on IRANIAN-backed militants and their financial backers. Thus, U.S. President Donald Trump has made it clear that the U.S. will not turn back from its resolve to bring IRAN back to the negotiating table, or face the consequences next month, from new U.S. imposed sanctions on IRAN’s oil sector, with the aim of stopping IRAN’s involvement in conflicts in SYRIA and IRAQ while forcing IRAN back to the negotiation table over its ballistic missile program and involvement throughout the MIDDLE EAST. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blamed IRAN for threats to U.S. missions in IRAQ and stated that the U.S. was terminating a treaty of amity with IRAN.

TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

This week’s focus in TURKEY seemed to shift to the TURKISH struggling economy, largely attributable to a lack of confidence by foreign investors, due largely to TURKEY’s repressive crackdown measures on all opposition movements. In my opinion, over the last two years, TURKEY has been radically transformed with emergency measures used to consolidate authoritarian powers, silence opposition voices and take away basic human rights and civil liberties. However, the behaviours of TURKEY’s governing AKP seem to be taking their toll on the TURKISH economy, as turbulent politics have resulted in economic turmoil, whereby the sliding TURKISH Lira has set-off alarm bells across TURKEY, as businesses struggle to cope with the financial impacts of a declining TURKISH Lira. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blaming the rest of the world for waging an economic war against TURKEY, while most reputable economists would tend to agree that the TURKISH government has forced their central banks to follow counterproductive, if not destructive, economic policies is a sure sign that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is living in a delusional reality.

In my opinion, the underlying problem is that TURKISH banks and companies borrowed a lot of U.S. dollars, as TURKISH foreign currency debt represents about 30% of TURKEY’s GDP, such that TURKEY is now struggling to pay down the debt as the TURKISH Lira is falling. In my opinion, TURKEY’s economy is struggling in large part due to the TURKISH Lira losing almost 40% of its value against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year. In my opinion, there are a slew of reasons dissuading investors from TURKEY, but at the end of the day, many investors continue to try to liquidate their TURKISH Lira given that it has been dropping fast since the beginning of the year. Thus, the solution from my point-of-view is quite obvious, that TURKEY needs to raise interest rates in order to counter its problems of high inflation and a declining TURKISH Lira, while its economy should be able to bear the brunt of higher interest rates, without significant drops in current production levels.

Thus, this week’s focus of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued to be on TURKEY’s fragile economy, that received another economic blow, when TURKEY’s growth forecasts for this year and next were dramatically reduced, triggering further drops in the value of the TURKISH Lira. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY seems to find itself in an awkward position, like a dog chasing its tail, as TURKEY has seen its currency plunge over 40% this year, over investor concerns about President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s influence over monetary policy and a horrible diplomatic separation from the U.S. In my opinion, the TURKISH economic turbulence has shaken global financial markets and created the potential for a banking crisis that could have a disastrous domino effect across the entire global financial markets. In my opinion, TURKEY’s banks face a potential barrage of bad debts as the TURKISH Lira sell-off has driven up the cost for companies to service their foreign currency denominated loans. That is, TURKISH companies have been borrowing in U.S. Dollars and Euros for years, to take advantage of lower interest rates, but it appears that the private sector has accumulated over $145 billion in foreign currency denominated debt, maturing during the upcoming year. Nonetheless, Berat Albayrak, TURKEY’s finance minister stated that TURKEY does not foresee a big risk on the TURKISH economy and banking system as the TURKISH economy has strong fundamentals. Hence, THE ROCK would like to kindly and politely offer his consulting services to Berat Albayrak to help TURKEY straighten out their economic and geopolitical mess.

In my opinion, Berat Albayrak sounds like President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which is not surprising as he is his son-in-law such that Berat Albayrak seems to be significantly influenced by the President and seems to be extremely reluctant to go against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s firm belief in the need to maintain interest rates stable at around 17%. However, in my opinion, TURKEY faces the risk of a rapid slowdown in the TURKISH economy that could potentially culminate in a difficult recession unless TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, takes urgent steps to rebalance the TURKISH economy while fuelling investor confidence. In my opinion, TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, acted appropriately this week, by clearly stating that TURKEY has defended its fiscal policies against speculative attacks carried out through foreign exchange rates and TURKISH Lira liquidity, laying the groundwork for a total fight against inflation in the upcoming months. However, now the real test will occur for TURKEY in terms of meeting its publicly disclosed targets of 20.8% by the end of 2018, 15.9% for 2019, 9.8% for 2020 and 6% for 2021. In my opinion, TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak has set the right targets for the future albeit the world is now waiting for Turkey to announce the specific measures that will be taken in the fight against inflation next week, after data this week clearly showed annual consumer price inflation reaching a high of almost 25% in September’ 2018.Thus, in my opinion, investors are scared by soaring inflation, widening operating deficits and a declining TURKISH Lira that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could immediately stabilize by releasing Pastor Andrew Brunson. That is, U.S. President Donald Trump doubled tariffs on U.S. imports of TURKISH steel and aluminum in an attempt to force TURKEY to release Pastor Andrew Brunson, which seems to represent a relatively quick economic fix, albeit the debate of application of justice, as the U.S. does not recognize the admission of circumstantial evidence according to international laws and regulations.

In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump once again showed a strong backbone by making good on his warnings to TURKEY that there would be punitive consequences if TURKEY does not reverse the charges or acquit Pastor Andrew Brunson on all accusations of espionage and aiding of terrorist groups. In my opinion, President Donald Trump’s assessment is accurate that Pastor Andrew Brunson is a fine gentleman and Christian leader who is being persecuted in TURKEY for no reason whereby TURKEY calls Pastor Andrew Brunson a Spy, although there is no substantive evidence, such that Pastor Andrew Brunson should be allowed to return home to his beautiful family where he belongs. Thus, I was surprised to see TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stating last week that only a TURKISH court, not politicians, would decide the fate of the American pastor regardless of strained relations with the U.S. In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump was right to be infuriated by the detention of Pastor Andrew Brunson, by authorizing the doubling of duties on aluminum and steel imported from TURKEY, although TURKEY retaliated accordingly, by increasing tariffs on U.S. cars, alcohol and tobacco imports. Thus, from my point-of-view, Pastor Andrew Brunson made the right decision this week by filing an appeal petitioning TURKEY’s highest Constitutional Court for his release from house arrest, following a lower court refusal to free him, and to lift a travel ban against him. In my opinion, given that Pastor Andrew Brunson had been living in TURKEY for over thirty years, as a model law-abiding citizen, there is no reasonable or acceptable legal reason for his freedom to be limited in such a way, as there is also no possibility of Pastor Andrew Brunson destroying any evidence during his release, as TURKEY has already accumulated all the circumstantial evidence available.

Thus, it seems that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be forced to turn to the E.U., although TURKEY’s bid for E.U. membership has all but expired, as TURKEY will seem to be forced to return to GERMANY to finance TURKISH short-tern needs. However, in my opinion, any E.U. aid is unlikely to be enough while the pledge by QATAR to invest $ 15 billion during the upcoming year seems to have had very little favourable impact on the TURKISH Lira. In my opinion, as inflation rates rise, the TURKISH central bank will be forced to raise interest rates shortly to halt the TURKISH Lira’s free-fall, albeit any interest rate hike may be too little and too late. Thus, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s belief that interest rates are the mother and father of all evil, as a cause of inflation, will now likely result in TURKEY being forced to go to the IMF for bail-out financing although TURKEY continues to rule out this option on the basis that IMF financing represents an unacceptable surrender of TURKISH sovereignty.

As a friendly reminder, in an unusual show of solidarity with IRAN whereby Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his IRANIAN counterpart Hassan Rouhani that he found the U.S. decision to withdraw from a 2015 nuclear deal with IRAN to be wrong, I am not surprised as TURKEY recognizes that the deal was the product of more than a decade of diplomacy whereby the final nuclear agreement signed in July of 2015 by the U.S., France, Britain, Germany, Russia, China and Iran represents a milestone that the U.S. has unilaterally decided to withdraw from. Not surprisingly, among the few nations to welcome U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision were ISRAEL and SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN’s arch-nemesis in the Middle East. However, ISRAELI and TURKEY relations continued to remain sour after TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blasted the new ISRAELI nation state law as embodying the spirit of Hitler. In my opinion, the ISRAELI nation state law, which officially recognises ISRAEL as the home for Jewish people, obviously provoked anger amongst ARAB leaders, who expressed their concerns over the possibilities now for discrimination against ARAB citizens, while accusing ISRAEL of trying to create an apartheid state.

In my opinion, I was not surprised to see TURKEY focus its attention on IDLIB and continue to warn the SYRIAN regime, RUSSIA and IRAN, that an all-out military offensive on IDLIB could lead to a disastrous outcome for TURKEY, by triggering a new wave of refugees heading towards the TURKISH borders. In my opinion, TURKEY has already sheltered 3.5 million SYRIANS such that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is under significant domestic pressure to not take in any more refugees. Nonetheless, RUSSIA’s worries about AL-QAEDA linked terrorist groups based in IDLIB are legitimate but a full-scale military attack is not the way to deal with this situation as it will certainly put the lives of all innocent civilians at risk and create a humanitarian crisis. Thus, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan needs to receive full credit for being able to negotiate a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA recently to spare IDLIB from disastrous consequences for the time being. In my opinion, the large quantities of weapons entering SYRIA recently indicated that TURKEY will be providing complete TURKISH military support for a long drawn-out battle over IDLIB, if necessary. Thus, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin once again made the right strategic decision to hold back the SAA and IRANIANS from engaging in a full fledge military assault on IDLIB that in my opinion would have been disastrous for all parties. However, in my opinion it will be difficult to implement the agreement on the ground as the planned presence of RUSSIAN forces in the neutral zone disturbs the FSA, while the withdrawal of insurgents deemed radical by TURKEY from the area by October 15, 2018, seems to be contested by the radical group, Tahrir al-Sham, that has not yet said whether they will comply with the agreement.

Meanwhile, I was not surprised to see President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stating that TURKEY would continue to buy natural gas from IRAN, in line with its long-term supply contracts, despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to punish countries doing business with IRAN. In my opinion, TURKEY has made it clear that the U.S. imposed sanctions will be ignored, as TURISH people cannot afford to heat their homes without purchasing IRAN’s natural gas, such that economic necessities will take precedence over politics. In regards to TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued with his juggling acts this week of competing interests as the first batch of U.S. military personnel arrived in TURKEY to join the training mission for joint patrol activities in MANBIJ, SYRIA, this is definitely a step in the right direction for peace in the KURDISTAN region of SYRIA. In regards to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussing more trade in their local currencies, while avoiding the U.S. dollar, it is obvious that both TURKEY and CHINA are furious at recent imposed U.S. tariffs such that they will engage in transactions in domestic currencies in an attempt to weaken the demand for U.S. Dollars. In regards to GERMANY needing TURKEY’s cooperation in halting the flow of ISIS fighters, currently hiding in SYRIA, while TURKEY needs GERMAN technology, investment and financing, TURKEY is leveraging GERMANY perfectly to fuel its economic needs. In regards to TURKEY having an affair with RUSSIA, as RUSSIA joined TURKEY in avoiding the U.S. dollar, with the goal that the reign of the U.S. dollar as the global trade currency come to an end, I am not surprised to see RUSSIA pushing against the U.S. Dollar as RUSSIA perceives that a weakened demand for the U.S. Dollar will trigger an increased demand for the RUSSIAN Ruble and TURKISH Lira.

Hence, I was not surprised to see TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan floating alternatives for new strategic partnerships, as it is blatantly obvious that TURKEY and the U.S. have not been strategic partners for quite some time. In my opinion, the RUSSIANS represent a viable alternative for TURKEY because RUSSIA’s Gazprom is currently building natural gas pipelines in TURKEY albeit their historical rocky relationship. In regards to increasing TURKISH strategic partnerships with the E.U., TURKEY is already a low cost, weak currency, manufacturing center for industrial Europe such that the European Central Bank might be forced to conduct operations that essentially increase the value of the TURKISH Lira. In regards to CHINA stepping-in as CHINA is interested in committing TURKEY into CHINA’s Belt and Road initiative at a very strategic geographic point on the Eurasian landmass, TURKEY owns commercial real estate, steel and energy assets that could interest CHINA except that CHINA is known for demanding discounted prices for bail-out financing. In regards to QATAR who already reacted by pledging to invest $ 15 billion in TURKISH financial markets and banks, I believe that QATAR will emerge as TURKEY’s preferred new strategic partner due to the close ties TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan maintains with the emir of QATAR, Tami bin Hamad al Thani. Furthermore, TURKEY maintains troops in QATAR as a defense against Saudi Arabia such that QATAR is most likely to provide financial support to TURKEY.

IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

As a friendly reminder, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.

As a friendly reminder, either a coalition under Moqtada al-Sadr was expected to emerge or a pro-IRANIAN coalition under the Fatah Alliance was expected to emerge such that either way, it seemed that the U.S. presence in IRAQ would likely diminish over time. In my opinion, many Americans still remember Moqtada al-Sadr from the post-invasion period of IRAQI history when he commanded a militia that attacked U.S. forces and committed atrocities against the SUNNI population. Ironically, Moqtada al-Sadr never reconciled with the U.S. while contemporaneously having a bitter falling out with IRAN. However, in my opinion, Moqtada al-Sadr seems to now be repositioning IRAQ for closer relations with SAUDI ARABIA that once wrote-off IRAQ as a victory for IRAN while now once again, the SAUDI Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, seems to be courting IRAQI’s SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. Ironically, after months of negotiations, Barham Salih was voted by parliament into the position of President with his first act naming Adil Abdul-Mahdi to be prime minister, conditional upon his formation of a government in the next 30 days. Thus, it seems that the results of the elections were bypassed for the benefit of stability, as this new duo represents the old IRAQI regime, as both have been active in IRAQI politics since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003. That is, President Barham Salih was previously deputy prime minister of IRAQ and Prime Minister of IRAQI Kurdistan while Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi was formerly vice president of IRAQ and more recently oil minister.

In regards to this weeks uncertainty looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, while the election results still hang in the backdrop without any conclusive outcome other that the likelihood of a coalition government amongst the three major political players as discussed above, it is obvious that IRAQ now finds itself once again with a weak government at the moment when IRAQ needs to be as strong as possible to cope with the potential for an ISIS re-emergence. In my opinion, poor governance, lack of public infrastructure and high levels of corruption, particularly in poor SUNNI areas, is helping to fuel ISIS’s objectives of a comeback after its crushing defeat. Unfortunately for IRAQ, the U.S. sanctions on IRAN seem to be arriving at the worst possible time, as the embargo on its IRANIAN neighbour could hit jobs in IRAQ and cut off a crucial source of relatively cheap imports into IRAQ.

In my opinion, with 80% of the products on the market in IRAQ being IRANIAN made, if the border closes, it will be an economic crisis for IRAQ. Thus, I was not surprised to see many IRAQIS pushing the IRAQI government to maintain trade relations with IRAN because IRAQ, which shares around 1,450 kilometers of border with IRAN, will be badly hurt by the IRANIAN sanctions. In my opinion, Iraq relies on IRAN for gas supplies, electricity, water and food such that the U.S. has placed IRAQ in a loser position as by attempting to cut-off the head of IRAN, the U.S. cut-off the waist of IRAQ such that although IRAN suffers most without its head, IRAQ is unable to reproduce without its waist. In my opinion, IRAQ will certainly experience shortages of key products if IRAQ complies with all of the U.S. sanctions that could lead to political turmoil at a critical crossroads period in IRAQI politics. Therefore, I was not surprised to see Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi clearly state that IRAQ has presented the U.S. with a framework from which the IRAQI delegation will go to the U.S. to negotiate with a clear vision of what IRAQ really needs which includes IRANIAN natural gas, electricity and other critical trade related products that fuel the IRAQI economy.

Nonetheless, I was not surprised to see the deadly protests continuing to rage in IRAQ this week over the lack of basic services and government corruption as IRAQI security forces were bracing for new rounds of violent protests. In my opinion, intermittent electricity availabilities, undrinkable water, unemployment and frustrations with a political system that has failed to form a new IRAQI government will certainly result in more IRAQI protests. In my opinion, it is easier said than done for IRAQI security forces to protect and facilitate peaceful demonstrations when frustrated IRAQI populace hurl stones and Molotov cocktails at local IRAQI government buildings and IRAQI security forces. However, assassinations such as that of social media star Tara Fares, in broad daylight when a gunman rode up to her car on a motorcycle and shot her point blank dead, seems to be instilling terror in prominent IRAQI women, as Tara Fares is the fourth victim in recent weeks. In my opinion, Tara Fares, feminist and activist Suaad al-Ali and beauticians, Rasha al-Hassan and Rafif al-Yasiri, were all killed in mysterious circumstances. Thus, although Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi stated that the killings do not appear to be random and thus ordered an investigation into whether the assassinations were linked, in my opinion, it seems pretty obvious that ISIS or another similar terrorist organization is targeting feminists and activists, in order to instil fear and silence women’s voices in IRAQ.

In regards to the U.S. stating that IRANIAN backed militias in IRAQ had carried out life-threatening attacks against the U.S. consulate in BASRA and the U.S. Embassy in BAGHDAD, I was not surprised with the U.S. warning IRAN that the U.S. would hold IRAN responsible if there were any future assaults. In my opinion, IRAN’s counter attack by blaming the U.S. for being behind the recent destruction of its IRANIAN consulate in IRAQ was surprising as it seems that the protesters who committed the dirty deeds to the IRANIAN consulate were most likely loyal followers of SHIA cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose block recently won the majority of seats in the IRAQI parliament and is definitely not a U.S. ally. In regards to U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blaming IRAN for threats to U.S. missions in IRAQ and stating that the U.S. was terminating a treaty of amity with IRAN and closing the U.S. consulate in BASRA, I was not surprised, as once U.S. intelligence indicated that IRAN’s Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and his hit men were supporting the recent attacks on the U.S., it was obvious that the U.S. would retreat accordingly. In my opinion, although the U.S. officially ended the amity treaty this week, the amity treaty ended in substance years ago, as it was an ancestral agreement that was signed long before IRAN’s 1979 Islamic Revolution that turned the U.S. and IRAN into archenemies. In my opinion, IRAN was clever enough to dig up this amity treaty as a means for judges at the International Court of Justice to hand a victory to IRAN, which had argued that sanctions imposed since May by the U.S. violate the terms of this 1955 Treaty of Amity between the two countries. However, the U.S. merely withdraw from this amity treaty agreement while stating that the International Court of Justice failed to recognize that it has no jurisdiction to issue any order relating to U.S. imposed sanctions. Meanwhile, the semi-autonomous KURDISTAN Region of IRAQ elected a new parliament on Sunday, whereby the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) will continue with its goal for KURDISH independence although the referendum held in 2017 failed to result in the pursuit of independence, as the KDP is unable to secure a majority in KURDISTAN. Ironically, the Patriotic Union Of Kurdistan (PUK) that was founded in 1975 by a group of leftists in SULAIMANIYA dissatisfied with the KDP will once again form a coalition government with the KDP.

SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

As a friendly reminder, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN ally recently focused their attention on the southern province of DERAA where they have intensified their bombing campaign after a ceasefire deal between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels and the Russians broke down. I was not surprised to see the intensification of air raids as SYRIAN troops have vowed to advance steadily to recapture lost territory until such time as a ceasefire agreement is negotiated. Thus, I was not surprised when SAA government forces retook a town that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war.

Thus, in my opinion, the shift now in focus of the SAA campaign to IDLIB is expected, as it is unacceptable that terrorists, particularly the AL-NUSRA FRONT, are using the de-escalation area of IDLIB to attack the SYRIAN army and to also attack the RUSSIAN military bases in the area by utilizing drones. However, in my opinion, TURKISH backed opposition groups in IDLIB that have attempted to unify into a new coalition, with some 70,000 fighters pledging to fight against SAA forces without the terrorist group, Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the most dominant rebel force in IDLIB in control of about 60% of the province, will not be able to indefinitely withstand the impending SAA and RUSSIAN military onslaught. Furthermore, in my opinion, a major military operation in IDLIB could pose a particularly threatening humanitarian crisis because there is no opposition held territory remaining in SYRIA, where people could be evacuated to, such that as many as 2.5 million SYRIANS could try to flee to the closed TURKISH border, creating a new refugee crisis of catastrophic proportions. Hence, in my opinion, although RUSSIA’s worries about AL-QAEDA linked terrorist groups based in IDLIB are legitimate, a full-scale military attack is not the way to deal with this situation as it will certainly put the lives of all innocent civilians at risk and create a humanitarian crisis. Thus, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan needs to receive full credit for being able to negotiate a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA to spare IDLIB from disastrous consequences for the time being. In my opinion, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin is by far the best negotiator currently in the region, who always seems to be able to remain cool, calm and collected, as he once again made the right strategic decision to hold back the SAA and IRANIANS from engaging in a full fledge military assault on IDLIB that in my opinion would have been disastrous for all parties. However, in my opinion it will be difficult to implement the agreement on the ground as the planned presence of RUSSIAN forces in the neutral zone disturbs the FSA, while the withdrawal of insurgents deemed radical by TURKEY from the area by October 15, 2018, seems to be contested by the radical group, Tahrir al-Sham, that has not yet said whether they will comply with the agreement.

Meanwhile, in regards to this week’s escalation of tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN, I am not surprised to see ISRAEL continuing to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. In my opinion, ISRAEL will not back down from its position that IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, last week’s announcement by RUSSIA that IRANIAN forces have pulled back from the Golan Heights should be welcomed as a positive development although ISRAEL clearly stated that such a pull back is insufficient with no compromises or concessions from ISRAEL’s position of a complete withdrawal being necessary. In my opinion, this week tensions have obviously risen once again since IRANIAN’s were fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency which has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. The new sanctions that target IRANIAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN’s auto sector that took effect seem to reflect the U.S. belief that IRAN will eventually surrender via the pressure tactics of sanctions. However, in my opinion IRAN’s pride runs through the veins of a majority of IRANIANS who would prefer to eat sand and drink sewage water before conceding to U.S. pressure tactics via sanctions.

Hence, I was not surprised to see IRAN’s nuclear chief, Ali Akbar Salehi, warn that IRAN stands ready to build advanced centrifuges and further enrich uranium as part of a restart of its nuclear program. Furthermore, I was not surprised to see ISRAELI Intelligence Minister Yisrael Katz specify that if IRAN presses forward with its nuclear program, IRAN will face a direct threat from the U.S. and its allies. In my opinion, the U.S. withdrawal from the IRAN nuclear deal has already badly shaken IRAN’s economy, crashing its currency, the IRANAN Rial, such that IRAN will have to choose to either come back to the negotiating table with the U.S. or watch its IRANIAN economy suffer from re-imposed U.S. sanctions. Thus, I was not surprised at U.S. President Donald Trump’s making it clear this week that IRAN is the central banker of international terrorism, such that the U.S. will be implementing a wider strategy for countering IRAN in the MIDDLE EAST, whereby the U.S. strategy towards IRAN will consist of both military and non-military means to push back on IRANIAN-backed militants and their financial backers. In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump is no different in politics then he was in business, in the sense that he is firm, strong, persuasive, relentless, passionate, driven and full of resolve such that I believe IRAN will eventually be forced back to the negotiating table over its ballistic missile program and involvement throughout the MIDDLE EAST. In my opinion, IRAN should think strategically with a long-term focus, whereby IRAN will be hit next month, from new U.S. imposed sanctions on IRAN’s oil sector, with the aim of stopping IRAN’s involvement in conflicts in SYRIA and IRAQ, while forcing IRAN back to the negotiation table, such that it would be more logical, rational and coherent to agree to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump before these sanctions kick-in. In my opinion, it is not a good strategic decision to play poker with U.S. President Donald Trump over the U.S. imposed sanctions, as although the U.S. is not looking to go to war with IRAN, the U.S. will significantly constrain IRAN’s abilities to operate in the MIDDLE EAST, with extreme measures, while IRAN’s exceptional negotiating team should be able to negotiate reasonable measures with the U.S.

In regards to U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blaming IRAN for threats to U.S. missions in IRAQ and stating that the U.S. was terminating a treaty of amity with IRAN and closing the U.S. consulate in BASRA, I was not surprised, as once U.S. intelligence indicated that IRAN’s Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and his hit men were supporting the recent attacks on the U.S., it was obvious that the U.S. would retreat accordingly. In my opinion, although the U.S. officially ended the amity treaty this week, the amity treaty ended in substance years ago, as it was an ancestral agreement that was signed long before IRAN’s 1979 Islamic Revolution that turned the U.S. and IRAN into archenemies. In my opinion, IRAN was clever enough to dig up this amity treaty as a means for judges at the International Court of Justice to hand a victory to IRAN, which had argued that sanctions imposed since May by the U.S. violate the terms of this 1955 Treaty of Amity between the two countries. However, the U.S. merely withdraw from this amity treaty agreement while stating that the International Court of Justice failed to recognize that it has no jurisdiction to issue any order relating to U.S. imposed sanctions.

In my opinion, the current situation in the Middle East depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War that would likely be triggered by a direct ISRAEL and IRAN conflict, such that all leaders across the globe must avoid the temptation to look away but rather should increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, minimize civilian casualties, prevent the further use of chemical weapons and alleviate the humanitarian crisis from a civil war spiralling out of control with no end in sight, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the Middle East. That being said, the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump has made it clear that IRAN is the central banker of international terrorism, such that the U.S. will be implementing a wider strategy for countering IRAN in the MIDDLE EAST, whereby the U.S. strategy towards IRAN will consist of both military and non-military means to push back on IRANIAN-backed militants and their financial backers, as U.S. President Donald Trump is no different in politics then he was in business, in the sense that he is firm, strong, persuasive, relentless, passionate, driven and full of resolve, such that I believe IRAN will eventually be forced back to the negotiating table over its ballistic missile program and involvement throughout the MIDDLE EAST, such that IRAN should think strategically with a long-term focus, whereby IRAN will be hit next month, from new U.S. imposed sanctions on IRAN’s oil sector, with the aim of stopping IRAN’s involvement in conflicts in SYRIA and IRAQ, while forcing IRAN back to the negotiation table, such that it would be more logical, rational and coherent to agree to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump before these sanctions kick-in, as it is not a good strategic decision to play poker with U.S. President Donald Trump over the U.S. imposed sanctions, as although the U.S. is not looking to go to war with IRAN, the U.S. will significantly constrain IRAN’s abilities to operate in the MIDDLE EAST, with extreme measures, while IRAN’s exceptional negotiating team should be able to negotiate reasonable measures with the new U.S. team, such that spiteful IRANIAN egos that prefer to swallow painful poison pills from U.S. imposed sanctions, only to eventually be forced to meet, after IRAN’s economy significantly bleeds, are making decisions based on personal vindictive gratification needs, while U.S. President Donald Trump will cripple all of IRAN’s business feeds.

In my opinion, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, although ISIS was literally disappearing from the face of the map in SYRIA, new showdowns between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) only serves to fuel the re-emergence of ISIS as a dangerous player in SYRIA. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS. Thus, in my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and utter madness.

Summary

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 319” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump has made it clear that IRAN is the central banker of international terrorism, such that the U.S. will be implementing a wider strategy for countering IRAN in the MIDDLE EAST, whereby the U.S. strategy towards IRAN will consist of both military and non-military means, to push back on IRANIAN-backed militants and their financial backers, as U.S. President Donald Trump is no different in politics then he was in business, in the sense that he is firm, strong, persuasive, relentless, passionate, driven and full of resolve, such that I believe IRAN will eventually be forced back to the negotiating table, over its ballistic missile program and involvement throughout the MIDDLE EAST, such that IRAN should think strategically with a long-term focus, whereby IRAN will be hit next month, from new U.S. imposed sanctions on IRAN’s oil sector, with the aim of stopping IRAN’s involvement in conflicts in SYRIA and IRAQ, while forcing IRAN back to the negotiation table, such that it would be more logical, rational and coherent to agree to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump before these sanctions kick-in, as it is not a good strategic decision to play poker with U.S. President Donald Trump over the U.S. imposed sanctions, as although the U.S. is not looking to go to war with IRAN, the U.S. will significantly constrain IRAN’s abilities to operate in the MIDDLE EAST, with extreme measures, while IRAN’s exceptional negotiating team should be able to negotiate reasonable measures with the new U.S. team, such that spiteful IRANIAN egos that prefer to swallow painful poison pills from U.S. imposed sanctions, only to eventually be forced to meet, after IRAN’s economy significantly bleeds, are making decisions based on personal vindictive gratification needs, while U.S. President Donald Trump will cripple all of IRAN’s business feeds.

Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:

October 7, 2018