In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 292” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the KURDISH YPG fought alongside the U.S. against ISIS only to now appear to have been abandoned to be slaughtered by TURKEY, while there should at least be a moral obligation to support the KURDISH YPG, due to their significant sacrifices in the fight against ISIS, while it is also pragmatic to support the KURDISH YPG in SYRIA in order to secure peace in the KURDISH region, although the U.S. now seems to be avoiding discussions that the KURDISH YPG possess a right to governance in the KURDISH region of SYRIA, as TURKEY now inflicts harsh punishment resulting in the KURDISH YPG enduring ill treatment at the hands of TURKEY without any support such that if the U.S. betrays the KURDISH YPG during these dire moments, the U.S. will earn another enemy in a region where the U.S. has few friends, such that the U.S. needs to hold their ground with the KURDISH YPG in MANBIJ whereby if TURKEY strikes first, the U.S. must reciprocate alongside the KURDISH YPG in kind.
TURKEY News
As a friendly reminder, TURKEY has been on the defense ever since an internal military “Coup D’État” failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP focused their attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say that the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants.
During the week ending on Sunday, April 1, 2018, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures although TURKEY’s crushing of the free press, destruction of the freedom of speech and restrictions to the right to peaceful demonstrations seems to be punishing the TURKISH economy as high inflation in TURKEY and a surge in foreign borrowing by TURKISH banks could plunge TURKEY into an economic crisis as soon as 2018. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKEY hammered the KURDS in AFRIN as KURDISH families hid in their basements to seek shelter, huddled on blankets in dimly lit caves, hid in the rubble of bombed-out buildings and others gathered around campfires as TURKEY’s military offensive in SYRIA against the U.S. backed KURDISH militias has driven civilians underground. The fighting that has resulted in relentless airstrikes has displaced an estimated 16,000 people as shelling has resulted in AFRIN streets laying deserted with crumpled cars, debris and gaping holes where shops once stood. However, this week TURKISH forces and their Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel allies celebrated the capture of AFRIN as the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) did not intervene so that TURKEY was in essence given the informal approval to crush the SYRIAN KURDISH region. However, at least 150,000 people have been displaced in AFRIN with estimates of the total number of civilian deaths at over 200 since TURKEY began its aggression in January of 2018 of the KURDISH region on the border between SYRIA and TURKEY under TURKEY’s Operation Olive Branch.
In addition, TURKEY warned this week that TURKEY will take action if KURDISH militants do not withdraw immediately from the SYRIAN MANBIJ region and areas in SYRIA east of the Euphrates regardless of the fact that the U.S. has about 2,000 soldiers based in MANBIJ, about 100 km east of AFRIN, who supported the KURDISH YPG in the war against ISIS such that although President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has urged the U.S. to pull out of the area, U.S. military officers say they have no intention of doing so. Obviously, expanding TURKEY’s military campaign into the much larger KURDISH held territory further east, which President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has vowed to do, would risk confrontation between TURKEY and the U.S., so called NATO allies, who have been butting heads over U.S. policy in SYRIA and other issues ever since the U.S. stepped foot on SYRIAN territory. It is important to note that TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s actions are being undertaken under the protective umbrella of RUSSIA as TURKEY is likely being used as a pawn in RUSSIA’s game of encouraging TURKEY to continue along its current path of aggression against the KURDISH YPG as TURKEY has the potential to come into direct military conflict with the U.S. because of the U.S. ties with the KURDISH YPG fighters in MANBIJ. TURKEY’s current aggression into SYRIAN territory likely breaches international law as TURKEY’s claim of self-defence against terrorism is unlikely to hold any ground under international laws because there is insufficient basis for the use of force within the territory of another state, SYRIA, based purely upon fear of potential threats from the KURDISH YPG. The TURKISH argument that the KURDISH YPG are terrorists and are using SYRIAN territory to attack TURKEY, while the SYRIAN government is unable or unwilling to stop them, does not authorize TURKEY to use force under international law. If other countries used the same argument as TURKEY to violate state sovereignty and commit acts of military aggression outside their respective territories, there would be widespread bloodshed and chaos all over the world.
IRAQ News
As a friendly reminder, IRAQI and ALLIED forces have pushed ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces first liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety subsequent to ALLIANCE forces seizing complete control of western MOSUL from ISIS. It is important to note that IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS to the point of ISIS relinquishing control of MOSUL as the world watched the scenes of jubilation as IRAQI forces liberated the OLD MOSUL City from ISIS. However, with 40,000 plus dead in the battle to take back OLD MOSUL City from ISIS, the scale of civilian casualties reveals a massacre with many bodies still buried under the rubble and the level of human suffering immense. However, many ISIS militias have taken to the hills and began to wage a classic rural guerrilla war, while some ISIS sleeper cells have also been activated at the border of Baghdad, the IRAQI capital. Thus, ISIS has now returned to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group as the Islamic State of IRAQ and SYRIA can no longer call itself a state as ISIS has lost all capacity to act as a state but rather ISIS now stands exposed as a GANGSTER sham.
Meanwhile this week, TURKEY expressed its readiness to launch a ground operation against KURDISH PKK militants in the IRAQI district of SINJAR but an official from IRAQ’s State of Law coalition warned that such an operation would be a violation of the IRAQ’s sovereignty and would warrant a response by IRAQI forces. It is important to note that IRAQI forces have been conducting their own military operation in the SINJAR region to oust PKK militants from the area that is close to the IRAQI and TURKISH border. As a friendly reminder, the KURDISH PKK has fought a bloody war against TURKISH forces for over three decades with the KURDISH PKK hardline tactics drawing international condemnation as fighting has largely been concentrated in IRAQ’s southeast region which has a large KURDISH community who are seeking independence or autonomy. Airstrikes by TURKISH warplanes have killed dozens of KURDISH PKK militants in recent months in northern Iraq but have also resulted in a number of civilian casualties. Meanwhile, this week, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi confirmed that IRAQI armed forces would prevent KURDISH PKK fighters based in northern IRAQ from staging cross-border attacks against TURKEY. Turkey has long complained that fighters of the outlawed KURDISH PKK are being given free rein to operate out of SINJAR and other border areas in IRAQ against TURKISH targets. Therefore, Iraqi security forces have been instructed by TURKEY to not to allow the presence of KURDISH PKK fighters in the border region between TURKEY and IRAQ.
As a friendly reminder, the KURDS still consider the September 25 referendum victory as the culmination of decades of struggle for a KURDISH state of their own although the IRAQI government has clearly stated that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. However, after the votes were tallied and the referendum passed with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, Iraq’s top SHIITE cleric out right rejected the outcome of KURDISTAN’s independence vote despite the overwhelming 92% voting in favour of separating from IRAQ. Subsequently, IRAQI forces along with IRANIAN trained paramilitaries deployed heavy weaponry build up in KIRKUK, the jewel of the proposed future KURDISTAN state enabling IRAQI forces to take control of all major areas of KIRKUK province from KURDISH YPG fighters. In particular, IRAQI forces took ALTON KUPRI, the oil-rich province of KURDISTAN as rocket; artillery and heavy machine-gun fire erupted in the region.
Subsequently, IRAQI Kurdish authorities stated that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession. However, the KURDS also stated that this decision must become a basis for starting an inclusive national dialogue between KURDISTAN and IRAQ to resolve all disputes through implementation of all constitutional articles and in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution because all elements of the IRAQI Constitution must be respected in order to secure the unity of IRAQ. Meanwhile, this week, KURDISH politicians continued to boycott IRAQI parliament with relentless protests at the reduction of KURDISTAN’s share from 17% to nearly 12% of the IRAQI parliament approved 2018 budget. Further, highlighting the division was IRAQ accusing KURDISTAN of corruption in handling oil exports from fields under the KURDISTAN region’s control while IRAQ also went so far as to suggest that revenues could be sufficient to satisfy KURDISTAN expenses otherwise which the KURDISTAN government obviously refuted. Meanwhile, this week, the KURDISH Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani clearly stated that the IRAQI Kurdistan Region would not allow KURDISH soil to be used for attacking neighbours such as IRAN, TURKEY, SYRIA and elsewhere as TURKEY threatened IRAQ with offensives against KURDISH PKK separatists in northern IRAQ. In addition, KURDISH authorities called upon KURDISH PKK fighters to keep their deployments away from civilian areas in the KURDISH regions as TURKEY continues to carry out airstrikes against KURDISH PKK members.
SYRIA News
As a friendly reminder, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH have made remarkable progress in the DEIR AL-ZOR region over the last several months liberating most of the province that was previously occupied by ISIS. Most recently, SAA units have made their way across several kilometers of territory south of the provincial capital of DEIR AL-ZOR striking ISIS in AL-MAYADEEN, ISIS’s new de facto capital in SYRIA. Therefore, the Russian Defence Ministry now estimates that the ISIS terrorist group controls less than five per cent of SYRIA after losing large swathes of territory to the SDF opposition fighters; the U.S. led coalition, the SAA and Russian allied forces. However, ISIS still controls several towns along the eastern and western banks of the EUPHRATES River. Among the occupied areas still under ISIS control are a group of towns that are located along the EUPHRATES River Valley including AL-ASHARAH, ABU HAMMAM, HAJEEN, AL-JALA and SOUSAH. However, the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declared that they have completely wiped out ISIS in Syria.
Meanwhile, this week, TURKEY celebrated victory after artillery hammered SYRIA’s AFRIN region with air power, artillery and ground troops as the KURDISH YPG chose to withdraw 10,000 KURDISH YPG militants after more than 1,500 were killed by TURKISH troops in the AFRIN offensive. Ironically, following TURKEY’s conquest of KURDISH AFRIN, TURKEY has repeatedly said that it intends to capture the city of MANBIJ from the KURDISH YPG next as TURKEY claims that it will conquer all territories east of AFRIN, all the way to the Iraqi border. Thus, TURKEY will pressure the U.S. to facilitate a peaceful withdrawal of the KURDISH YPG from MANBIJ in the coming weeks although the northwestern province of IDLIB, south of AFRIN, will likely be the TURKISH military’s next area of operation in SYRIA. As a friendly reminder, MANBIJ is an ARAB majority city captured by the KURDISH YPG led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) from ISIS in August of 2016 with U.S. air support. However, prior to that offensive, the U.S. promised TURKEY that only a small KURDISH YPG force would participate in the operation and that they would not remain in MANBIJ following the removal of ISIS. Nonetheless, more than eighteen months later, TURKEY wants to see this promise fulfilled and will likely push to reach an agreement with the U.S. in MANBIJ.
As a friendly reminder, after U.S. backed fighters had surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA, they finally managed to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. Fighters of the U.S. backed, KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) punched their way through ISIS lines in RAQQA city as KURDISH forces literally shot their way through the streets of RAQQA, concentrating fire on ISIS positions hidden in the urban ruin of RAQQA city while ISIS fought back hard. Meanwhile, witnesses of the aftermath of the battle for RAQQA duly noted that the victory celebrations by KURDISH forces felt muted as there were literally no civilians left in RAQQA such that it was the celebration of the liberation of a ghost town. However, Syrians hoping to return home to RAQQA now that RAQQA has been liberated from ISIS are being told to wait indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby some have already taken their toll in terms of human casualties.
Nonetheless, the current SYRIAN government under the control of President Bashar al-Assad stated that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA, which was liberated from ISIS by the U.S. backed and KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In particular, the existing SYRIAN regime stated that both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime. Meanwhile, this week, fighting has raged on in EASTERN GHOUTA as the death toll has slowly but steadily risen to over 1,500 in the last month with reports of at least 100 this week alone as RUSSIA formally stated that the massive RUSSIAN backed SYRIAN military offensive is almost over with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels now cornered in just a single town after being forced to abandon the greater part of the EASTERN GHOUTA region. Meanwhile, a senior official for JAISH AL-ISLAM, the faction that controls the last EASTERN GHOUTA town of DOUMA, still in rebel hands, stated that the rebels are still engaged in negotiations with RUSSIA over DOUMA’s fate. It is important to note that thousands of rebels have accepted RUSSIAN brokered deals to leave other parts of the EASTERN GHOUTA region in the past week with their families on SYRIAN government supplied buses, giving them safe passage to other rebel-held areas including AFRIN recently conquered by the FSA from the KURDISH YPG. In addition, tens of thousands of other civilians have stayed behind to accept SYRIAN government rule while tens of thousands more have fled across the frontlines to other parts of SYRIA.
However, with SYRIA once again finding itself embroiled in civil war between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in the EASTERN GHOUTA region while TURKEY is hammering away at the KURDISH YPG in northern SYRIA, ISIS seems to be able to mount limited but nonetheless painful blows to various factions in SYRIA with shock and awe attacks. It is important to note that dozens of fighters belonging to the AL-FATIMIYON militia under the banner of President Bashar al-Assad were killed in a series of ISIS attacks against their positions in the eastern countryside of DEIR EZZOR. Furthermore, several SYRIAN government militia from the AL-FATIMIYON Brigade were killed in ISIS attacks on their positions on the outskirts of AL BUKAMAL while more than twenty of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces were killed in an attack that targeted their positions in AL MAYADEEN. It is important to note that ISIS launched a violent attack targeting positions belonging to President Bashar al-Assad’s forces and in DEIR EZZOR during a sandstorm that swept across the region whereby the ISIS organization used all kinds of weapons in the attack, during which ISIS managed to kill a commander of President Bashar al-Assad’s AL-BAQIR Brigade, Asaad Abu Kassar who was among the most prominent commanders in the Brigade responsible for the capture of DEIR EZZOR city in 2017.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the KURDS as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis.
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures while TURKISH forces and their Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel allies celebrated the capture of AFRIN in what from the KURDISH perspective appears to have been a massacre. In my opinion, without reinforcements, the KURDISH YPG were outnumbered on the ground while the TURKISH air force had exclusive control over the skies in the region such that the KURDISH YPG had little choice but to abandon AFRIN as the KURDISH YPG militants decided not to make a fight until death stand against TURKEY as around 10,000 KURDISH YPG militants quickly withdrew in order to be alive to fight against TURKEY elsewhere after more that 1,500 KURDISH YPG fighters had been killed in the AFRIN offensive by TURKEY whose sheer brute military strength cannot be denied. However, in my opinion, AFRIN cannot be ignored because TURKEY’s aggression into SYRIAN territory bears the risk of the evolution of one strongman, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, continuing on this course of military aggression with further attacks in SYRIA. In my opinion, this is a recipe for disaster in a SYRIA already suffering from eight years of civil war with no concern for innocent lives such that the world does not need another dictator without respect for international legal order.
In regards to TURKEY likely being used as a pawn in RUSSIA’s game of encouraging TURKEY to continue along its current path of aggression against the KURDISH YPG as TURKEY has the potential to come into direct military conflict with the U.S. because of the U.S. ties with the KURDISH YPG fighters in MANBIJ, it is my opinion that RUSSIA probably anticipates that this conflict will turn TURKEY away from NATO and firmly into an alliance with RUSSIA. In my opinion, the only way to perhaps turn TURKEY away from TURKEY’s current disastrous course is by leveraging TURKISH dependence on WESTERN aid as TURKEY was supposed to receive over 4.4 Billion Euros from the E.U. during the 2014 to 2020 period that represents the only potential control mechanism for TURKEY to play by the international rules as a failure to hold TURKEY’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accountable for his actions now will most certainly result in catastrophic consequences in SYRIA in terms of additional bloodshed and war. In my opinion, as a NATO ally, TURKEY cannot be allowed to behave in the same manner as rogue regimes such as SYRIA as TURKISH military strikes in SYRIA have resulted in both Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International documenting numerous instances of civilians being killed in violation of international humanitarian laws.
Furthermore, TURKEY’s military forces have been accused of indiscriminately striking civilian targets and looting people in AFRIN while women and children have been killed in strikes against targets with no apparent military justification based on evidence obtained by Human Rights Watch. In my opinion, the situation in the KURDISH region of SYRIA illustrates the complexities of the new geopolitical landscape as the KURDISH YPG fought alongside the U.S. against ISIS only to now appear to have been abandoned to be slaughtered by TURKEY, while there should at least be a moral obligation to support the KURDISH YPG, due to their significant sacrifices in the fight against ISIS, while it is also pragmatic to support the KURDISH YPG in SYRIA in order to secure peace in the KURDISH region, although the U.S. now seems to be avoiding discussions that the KURDISH YPG possess a right to governance in the KURDISH region of SYRIA, as TURKEY now inflicts harsh punishment resulting in the KURDISH YPG enduring ill treatment at the hands of TURKEY without any support such that if the U.S. betrays the KURDISH YPG during these dire moments, the U.S. will earn another enemy in a region where the U.S. has few friends, such that the U.S. needs to hold their ground with the KURDISH YPG in MANBIJ whereby if TURKEY strikes first, the U.S. must reciprocate alongside the KURDISH YPG in kind.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after over one year of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power.
However, KURDISH and IRAQI forces still need to be vigilant for ISIS reunions to launch attacks through small covert groups of suicide attackers. In my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Hider al-Abadi’s announcement of full liberation of IRAQI lands with an official declaration of an end of the war against ISIS is accurate in theory but not in practice as significant ISIS fighters are still hiding underground like rats. In my opinion, this week’s shift in focus to the KURDISH PKK has come from intense pressure from TURKEY who have warned IRAQ that TURKEY will do what is necessary if IRAQI forces fail to clear the SINJAR area of KURDISH PKK militants although TURKEY’s Prime Minister Binali Yildirim clarified that TURKISH forces would only mount a ground operation with prior approval from IRAQ. In my opinion, the KURDISH PKK has made the right strategic move stating that it entered SINJAR in 2014 to help defend the YAZIDI people against ISIS such that the PKK announced the withdrawal of the PKK fighters from SINJAR stating that the YAZIDI minority there did not face any security threat any more. In my opinion, the KURDISH PKK announcement obviously followed TURKEY’s ultimatum over intervening in SINJAR as it is certain that the KURDISH PKK could either leave SINJAR by choice or by force as remaining in SINJAR was not an option after TURKISH clear stance of non-negotiable ultimatum, all or nothing alternative, without any discourse.
However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
Meanwhile, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. In my opinion, this week’s KURDISH politicians continuing with their total withdrawal from the IRAQI political arena is not surprising after the IRAQI parliament approved the 2018 budget with a reduced share for the KURDISH autonomous region from 17% of the IRAQI budget as had been the case since the new IRAQI government was formed after the U.S. led invasion to the proportion of the KURDISH population that the IRAQI government estimates to be at 12.6%. In my opinion, the 17% demand by the KURDISH government is reasonable as at least 17% of IRAQI soil is covered with KURDISH blood such that the KURDS earned their 17% share through blood, sweat and tears as the KURDISH forces held back ISIS forces from conquering IRAQ in its entirety while IRAQI forces were scrambling and nowhere to be seen. Meanwhile, this week’s announcement by KURDISH Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani clearly stating that the IRAQI Kurdistan Region would not allow KURDISH soil to be used for attacking neighbours, as TURKEY threatened IRAQ with offensives against KURDISH PKK separatists in northern IRAQ, was the right strategic move as it is important for the democratic KURDISH political wings to distance themselves from the KURDISH PKK as the KURDISH PKK are walking targets these days with bulls eyes on their respective heads. However, in my opinion, the KURDISH PKK will most probably disappear from the IRAQI local scene while hiding out in the hills as it is obvious that there will be a crackdown by IRAQI security forces followed by TURKISH forces if the IRAQI security forces are unable to contain the KURDISH PKK.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, it finally does appear that ISIS has been defeated in DEIR AL-ZOR, AL-MAYADEEN and AL-BUKAMAL albeit violent clashes that sporadically continue to erupt around the town as ISIS finds itself trapped like rats underground only to be swept to the surface as the SAA goes through their respective sweeping operations across the outskirts of town. However, with the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declaring that they have completely wiped out ISIS in SYRIA, I expect that the remaining ISIS militants will be hiding in small towns and villages along the border with IRAQ in the SYRIAN dessert such that the remaining portion of no mans land along the Middle Euphrates River Valley will most likely represent ISIS’s last stand. In my opinion, ISIS still controls thousands of square kilometres of desert in the DEIR AL-ZOR, HOMS, IDLIB and DARAA regions such that although ISIS has been forced out of major SYRIAN cities, ISIS is still able to stage attacks on SAA and other rebel forces from these desert areas such that victory may have been achieved albeit ISIS still existing as a thorn in everybodies sides.
However, this week, I was not surprised to see TURKEY celebrating victory after TURKISH artillery decimated SYRIA’s AFRIN region out of pure infuriation over the announcement of U.S. plans to train a 30,000 border force in the area of northern SYRIA where KURDISH YPG dominated forces drove out ISIS fighters last year while TURKEY now promises to strangle the KURDISH terrorist force before it is ever able to come into existence. However, unlike the case in AFRIN, the U.S. has troops based in MANBIJ and across the rest of the KURDISH region such that the U.S. is adamant that it will not withdraw its ground forces from MANBIJ under the presumption that TURKEY cannot attack the city of MANBIJ without running the risk of killing U.S. soldiers. Therefore, in my opinion, some kind of mutual agreement between TURKEY and the U.S. will likely determine the fate of MANBIJ in the near future. In addition, in my opinion, given the fact that the U.S. is retaining forces in other parts of the KURDISH region and is not planning on leaving anytime soon, TURKEY’s goal of invading the entire KURDISH region is unlikely to transpire in the short-term. In my opinion, the U.S. will most likely be forced by TURKEY to facilitate a successful KURDISH YPG withdrawal to the east bank of the EUPHRATES as a concrete sign of goodwill and the U.S. abilities to control the KURDISH YPG. In my opinion, the only thing worse, from TURKEY’s perspective, than the U.S. backing its mortal KURDISH YPG enemy, is the U.S. building up and supporting its mortal KURDISH YPG enemy while being unable to control them such that TURKEY will likely allow the U.S. to take up the role as a mediator between TURKEY and the KURDISH YPG rather than down-the-line support for the KURDISH YPG that is motivating TURKEY to destabilize the entire KURDISH region.
In regards to the Syrian city of RAQQA, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires. In my opinion, now in its seventh year, the war in SYRIA has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society.
Nonetheless, this week, it was sad to see the war in SYRIA entering into a dangerous new phase as EASTERN GHOUTA under attack by SYRIAN Regime forces on so-called SYRIAN rebel terrorists is a human tragedy that is unfolding before everybodies eyes such that in my opinion the international community cannot let things keep going in this horrendous fashion. As a friendly reminder, in some of the worst bombardment campaigns of the war in SYRIA, over one thousand people have been killed and over five thousand have been injured in EASTERN GHOUTA, a Free Syrian Army (FSA) held enclave that is home to about 400,000 people that borders the SYRIAN capital of Damascus. In my opinion, President Bashar al-Assad wants to recapture EASTERN GHOUTA because it is so close to DAMASCUS, the capital of SYRIA, that it is possible for rebels to fire mortars into the heart of the capital. In my opinion, the collapse of rebel control in EASTERN GHOUTA, after one of the fiercest campaigns of the seven-year war, has delivered the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels their worst defeat since they were driven out of ALEPPO in 2016. As a friendly reminder, EASTERN GHOUTA was one of the first areas of the FSA uprising against President Bashar al-Assad back in 2011 that was also, until last month, the biggest and most populous remaining rebel stronghold near the capital of DAMASCUS. Therefore, in my opinion, the capture of EASTERN GHOUTA will conclude a string of battlefield victories for the SYRIAN government still under the control of President Bashar al-Assad since RUSSIA sent its air force to join the SYRIAN war effort against the rebellion back in September 2015 that has essentially resulted in President Bashar al-Assad remaining in power.
In my opinion, as was seen this week with ISIS able to mount limited but nonetheless painful blows to various factions in SYRIA with shock and awe attacks in DEIR EZZOR, AL BUKAMAL and AL MAYADEEN, it is important to note that ISIS used all kinds of weapons in their attacks during which ISIS managed to kill a commander of President Bashar al-Assad’s AL-BAQIR Brigade, Asaad Abu Kassar who was among the most prominent commanders in the Brigade responsible for the capture of DEIR EZZOR city in 2017. Therefore, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, although ISIS was literally disappearing from the face of the map in SYRIA, new showdowns between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in the EASTERN GHOUTA region while TURKEY is hammering away at the KURDISH YPG in northern SYRIA only serves to fuel the re-emergence of ISIS as a dangerous player in SYRIA. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS such that this war could very well continue for years to come if RUSSIA is not given mediator powers to negotiate a deal between all Parties. In my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and madness.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 292” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the KURDISH YPG fought alongside the U.S. against ISIS only to now appear to have been abandoned to be slaughtered by TURKEY, while there should at least be a moral obligation to support the KURDISH YPG, due to their significant sacrifices in the fight against ISIS, while it is also pragmatic to support the KURDISH YPG in SYRIA in order to secure peace in the KURDISH region, although the U.S. now seems to be avoiding discussions that the KURDISH YPG possess a right to governance in the KURDISH region of SYRIA, as TURKEY now inflicts harsh punishment resulting in the KURDISH YPG enduring ill treatment at the hands of TURKEY without any support such that if the U.S. betrays the KURDISH YPG during these dire moments, the U.S. will earn another enemy in a region where the U.S. has few friends, such that the U.S. needs to hold their ground with the KURDISH YPG in MANBIJ whereby if TURKEY strikes first, the U.S. must reciprocate alongside the KURDISH YPG in kind.
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 291” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby decisions are made that best serve strategic personal, financial and political interests as RUSSIA allowed TURKISH forces to enter SYRIA, while contemporaneously blocking any attempt by the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) air force and ground troops to join the fight with the KURDISH YPG against TURKEY, to in essence give TURKEY an opportunity to conquer this KURDISH territory of AFRIN, as RUSSIA seems to have chosen to give the Free Syrian Army (FSA) a foothold in northern SYRIA at the expense of the KURDISH YPG while focusing SAA efforts on the EASTERN GHOUTA region, to capture this critical territory from the FSA close to DAMASCUS, the capital of SYRIA, such that RUSSIA has in substance given the FSA AFRIN in exchange for EASTERN GHOUTA, while replacing TURKEY’s seventy year military alliance with the U.S. and creating a new long-term TURKISH and RUSSIAN strategic partnership that represents a huge loss for the U.S. and a prize for RUSSIA.
TURKEY News
As a friendly reminder, TURKEY has been on the defense ever since an internal military “Coup D’État” failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP focused their attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say that the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants. During the week ending on Sunday, March 25, 2018, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures although TURKEY’s crushing of the free press, destruction of the freedom of speech and restrictions to the right to peaceful demonstrations seems to be punishing the TURKISH economy as high inflation in TURKEY and a surge in foreign borrowing by TURKISH banks could plunge TURKEY into an economic crisis as soon as 2018. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKEY hammered the KURDS in AFRIN as KURDISH families hid in their basements to seek shelter, huddled on blankets in dimly lit caves, hid in the rubble of bombed-out buildings and others gathered around campfires as TURKEY’s military offensive in SYRIA against the U.S. backed KURDISH militias has driven civilians underground. The fighting that has resulted in relentless airstrikes has displaced an estimated 16,000 people as shelling has resulted in AFRIN streets laying deserted with crumpled cars, debris and gaping holes where shops once stood. However, this week TURKEY continued with their siege of AFRIN as TURKISH forces and their Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel allies continued with their relentless barrage of attacks culminating with TURKEY’s capture of AFRIN as the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) did not intervene so that TURKEY was in essence given the informal approval to crush the SYRIAN KURDISH region although TURKEY must now convince the U.S. to leave MANBIJ. It is important to note that when the surrounding province of AFRIN was lost to TURKEY and the town was almost completely surrounded, instead of holding out to the very end in a siege of AFRIN, the KURDISH YPG militants decided not to make a fight until death stand against TURKEY as around 10,000 KURDISH YPG militants quickly withdrew in order to be alive to fight against TURKEY elsewhere after more that 1,500 KURDISH YPG fighters had been killed in the AFRIN offensive by TURKEY. Meanwhile, on the heels of the AFRIN victory, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated that that the AFRIN campaign is only the first in a series of anticipated military interventions aimed at breaking the power of the KURDISH YPG in line with TURKEY’s goal to conquer all autonomous KURDISH regions in northern Syria that border or are in close proximity with TURKEY. It is important to note that although this is a very long area, much of the remaining territories are low-lying and would pose fewer challenges for a TURKISH military force invasion than the mountainous countryside around AFRIN so a series of piecemeal attacks against key KURDISH cities could very well put an end to the autonomous KURDISH regions and create a TURKISH controlled zone along the SYRIAN and TURKISH border. It seems that a pact between TURKEY and RUSSIA has been made that allows for TURKEY’s presence in SYRIA on a sustainable long-term basis as there is no sign that RUSSIA will change its friendly attitude towards TURKEY and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. RUSSIA seems to have decided to give the TURKISH and Free Syrian Army (FSA) forces an opportunity to strike against the KURDISH YPG in AFRIN that seems to set the future direction whereby RUSSIA will probably also be willing to see TURKISH forces attack and attempt to break up the larger SYRIAN KURDISH YPG regions to the east of AFRIN. It is important to note that RUSSIA seems to be looking for retribution for the close alliance that exists between the SYRIAN KURDISH YPG and the U.S. that was forged in their common struggle to destroy ISIS such that continuing RUSSIAN support for TURKEY as it moves to crush the KURDISH YPG may also be sufficient to replace TURKEY’s seventy year military alliance with the U.S. and create a new long-term TURKISH and RUSSIAN strategic partnership that would represent a huge loss for the U.S. and a prize for RUSSIA. IRAQ News As a friendly reminder, IRAQI and ALLIED forces have pushed ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces first liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety subsequent to ALLIANCE forces seizing complete control of western MOSUL from ISIS. It is important to note that IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS to the point of ISIS relinquishing control of MOSUL as the world watched the scenes of jubilation as IRAQI forces liberated the OLD MOSUL City from ISIS. However, with 40,000 plus dead in the battle to take back OLD MOSUL City from ISIS, the scale of civilian casualties reveals a massacre with many bodies still buried under the rubble and the level of human suffering immense. However, many ISIS militias have taken to the hills and began to wage a classic rural guerrilla war, while some ISIS sleeper cells have also been activated at the border of Baghdad, the IRAQI capital. Thus, ISIS has now returned to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group as the Islamic State of IRAQ and SYRIA can no longer call itself a state as ISIS has lost all capacity to act as a state but rather ISIS now stands exposed as a GANGSTER sham. Meanwhile this week, an analysis by the Associated Press revealed that the IRAQI Government has detained or imprisoned at least 19,000 people accused of connections to ISIS or other terror related offenses while sentencing more than 3,000 of them to death. It is important to note that there has been great overcrowding in IRAQ’s existing prison system unable to handle the current load of incarcerations as Iraq needs a greater number of investigators and judges to resolve outstanding legal issues including many legal proceedings having been delayed because IRAQ lacks the resources necessary to respond to the spike in so-called ISIS terrorist incarcerations. Unfortunately, the current wave of detentions has hit the IRAQI justice system much harder than ever before because past arrests were spread out over a much longer period of time while the largest numbers of detainees were held by the U.S. military with only a portion sent to IRAQI courts while the rest have since been released. That is, large numbers of IRAQIS were detained during the 2000’s when the U.S. and IRAQI governments were battling SUNNI militants, including AL-QAIDA and SHIITE militias. However, at the height of the fighting, the U.S. military held 25,000 detainees while only about 6,000 people arrested on terror charges before 2013 are still serving their sentences. Nonetheless, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, who is running to retain his position in national elections schedule for May, has repeatedly called for accelerated death sentences for those charged with terrorism. However, the United Nations has warned that fast-tracking executions puts innocent people at greater risk of being convicted and executed resulting in gross irreversible miscarriages of justice. As a friendly reminder, the KURDS still consider the September 25 referendum victory as the culmination of decades of struggle for a KURDISH state of their own although the IRAQI government has clearly stated that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. However, after the votes were tallied and the referendum passed with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, Iraq’s top SHIITE cleric out right rejected the outcome of KURDISTAN’s independence vote despite the overwhelming 92% voting in favour of separating from IRAQ. Subsequently, IRAQI forces along with IRANIAN trained paramilitaries deployed heavy weaponry build up in KIRKUK, the jewel of the proposed future KURDISTAN state enabling IRAQI forces to take control of all major areas of KIRKUK province from KURDISH YPG fighters. In particular, IRAQI forces took ALTON KUPRI, the oil-rich province of KURDISTAN as rocket; artillery and heavy machine-gun fire erupted in the region. Subsequently, IRAQI Kurdish authorities stated that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession. However, the KURDS also stated that this decision must become a basis for starting an inclusive national dialogue between KURDISTAN and IRAQ to resolve all disputes through implementation of all constitutional articles and in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution because all elements of the IRAQI Constitution must be respected in order to secure the unity of IRAQ. Meanwhile, this week, KURDISH politicians continued to boycott IRAQI parliament with relentless protests at the reduction of KURDISTAN’s share from 17% to nearly 12% of the IRAQI parliament approved 2018 budget. Further, highlighting the division was IRAQ accusing KURDISTAN of corruption in handling oil exports from fields under the KURDISTAN region’s control while IRAQ also went so far as to suggest that revenues could be sufficient to satisfy KURDISTAN expenses otherwise which the KURDISTAN government obviously refuted. Meanwhile, this week, IRAQ and TURKEY agreed that TURKEY might launch military operations on the IRAQI and TURKEY borders presumably targeting the KURDISH PKK fighters. In particular, TURKEY’s ambassador to IRAQ, Fateh Yildiz, said TURKEY started to launch military operations on its borders with IRAQ to purge the borders from KURDISH PKK terrorist pockets in collaboration with the IRAQI government. SYRIA News As a friendly reminder, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH have made remarkable progress in the DEIR AL-ZOR region over the last several months liberating most of the province that was previously occupied by ISIS. Most recently, SAA units have made their way across several kilometers of territory south of the provincial capital of DEIR AL-ZOR striking ISIS in AL-MAYADEEN, ISIS’s new de facto capital in SYRIA. Therefore, the Russian Defence Ministry now estimates that the ISIS terrorist group controls less than five per cent of SYRIA after losing large swathes of territory to the SDF opposition fighters; the U.S. led coalition, the SAA and Russian allied forces. However, ISIS still controls several towns along the eastern and western banks of the EUPHRATES River. Among the occupied areas still under ISIS control are a group of towns that are located along the EUPHRATES River Valley including AL-ASHARAH, ABU HAMMAM, HAJEEN, AL-JALA and SOUSAH. However, the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declared that they have completely wiped out ISIS in Syria. Meanwhile, this week, TURKISH artillery continued to fire into SYRIA’s AFRIN region using air power, artillery and ground troops that has alarmed the U.S. that has supported the KURDISH YPG in fighting against ISIS in northern Syria. IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani, a staunch ally of the SYRIAN regime, has denounced the TURKISH invasion of AFRIN stating that any foreign intervention needs authorization from the SYRIAN regime. Meanwhile, the SYRIAN militias that entered AFRIN were IRANIAN trained such that their presence has put IRANIAN proxies on the border with TURKEY and strengthened IRAN’s foothold in the area. However, this week President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made good on his promise that TURKEY would take control of AFRIN from the KURDISH YPG as the KURDISH YPG chose to withdraw 10,000 KURDISH YPG militants after more that 1,500 had been killed in the AFRIN offensive by TURKEY. Ironically, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated that the strike against the KURDISH YPG was necessary due to more than 700 attacks, over the last year alone, that have been launched from the AFRIN area under KURDISH YPG control against TURKISH cities. Meanwhile, Reality Check extensively researched public reports of attacks on TURKEY in the time period mentioned, using several different sources, and it could only find reports of 26 attacks from SYRIA between January 1, 2017 and January 20, 2018 while only 15 of those attacks came from AFRIN. However, when the TURKISH Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) was contacted again, it told Reality Check that there had been 700 incidents of harassment fire defined as anything that does not directly target TURKEY but is felt as a side effect of an ongoing incident or clashes in SYRIA. The TURKISH MFA then stated that some of the 700 incidents had been at TURKISH military posts in northern SYRIA, including IDLIB and areas controlled by the TURKISH backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) contradicting the official statements that the attacks were against TURKISH cities. As a friendly reminder, after U.S. backed fighters had surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA, they finally managed to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. Fighters of the U.S. backed, KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) punched their way through ISIS lines in RAQQA city as KURDISH forces literally shot their way through the streets of RAQQA, concentrating fire on ISIS positions hidden in the urban ruin of RAQQA city while ISIS fought back hard. Meanwhile, witnesses of the aftermath of the battle for RAQQA duly noted that the victory celebrations by KURDISH forces felt muted as there were literally no civilians left in RAQQA such that it was the celebration of the liberation of a ghost town. However, Syrians hoping to return home to RAQQA now that RAQQA has been liberated from ISIS are being told to wait indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby some have already taken their toll in terms of human casualties. Nonetheless, the current SYRIAN government under the control of President Bashar al-Assad stated that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA, which was liberated from ISIS by the U.S. backed and KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In particular, the existing SYRIAN regime stated that both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime. Meanwhile, this week, thousands of SYRIAN civilians fled from a Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel pocket in EASTERN GHOUTA crossing by foot to government controlled SYRIAN Arab Army (SAA) positions in the first mass exodus from the besieged enclave since SAA forces launched an assault to capture EASTERN GHOUTA over one month ago. As a friendly reminder, the SYRIAN government and its RUSSIAN allies have been pounding EASTERN GHOUTA with air strikes for over one month while this week the SAA launched a ground assault that has seized much of EASTERN GHOUTA while literally cutting towns off from each other. It is important to note that the fighting has raged on in EASTERN GHOUTA as the death toll has slowly but steadily risen to over 1,500 in the last month with reports of at least 100 this week alone including reports of the death of sixteen children and four women sheltered in a school in the town of IRBIN that was hit by an air raid. However, in a sheer act of revenge by the rebels, at least 35 people were killed after a rocket was fired at a SYRIAN government controlled area in DAMASCUS, the capital of SYRIA as the SANA news agency blamed terrorists inside EASTERN GHOUTA for firing the rocket which had targeted a market in the KASHKOUL neighbourhood in JARAMANA, a southeast suburb of DAMASCUS. TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions As a friendly reminder, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the KURDS as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKEY hammered the KURDS in AFRIN as TURKEY’s military offensive in SYRIA against the U.S. backed KURDISH militias has driven civilians underground in what from the KURDISH perspective appears to be a massacre. In my opinion, TURKEY continued this week with their siege of AFRIN as the TURKISH army and associated Free Syrian Army (FSA) militias know very well that without reinforcements, the KURDISH YPG are outnumbered on the ground while the TURKISH air force has exclusive control over the skies in the region at the current time. Therefore, I was not surprised to see TURKEY conquer AFRIN after an eight and one half week intensive military campaign that resulted in both TURKISH and Free Syrian Army (FSA) forces entering AFRIN city for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to claim victory while proclaiming jubilantly that the TURKS have given a lesson to the world. In my opinion, ever since the SYRIAN civil war began almost seven years ago in March of 2011, TURKEY has always had the goal of becoming a major player in SYRIA although TURKEY’s initial dreams of overthrowing President Bashar al-Assad and replacing him with a SUNNI-led administration may have very well faded. In my opinion, the TURKISH military force was too strong for the KURDISH YPG militants on their own without any reinforcements from the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), particularly in terms of air power, such that it is pretty clear that Turkey’s military superiority against the KURDISH YPG in AFRIN was firmly established as AFRIN had been preparing for a TURKISH invasion for a long time with intense preparations and fortifications by the KURDISH YPG that did not hold TURKISH forces back from AFRIN city for too long. In my opinion, TURKEY’s military strength, experience and preparations were in essence facilitated by RUSSIA who allowed TURKEY to send TURKISH troops into SYRIA while it also seems that RUSSIA restrained President Bashar al-Assad’s air force from intervening in AFRIN while contemporaneously blocking any attempt by the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) to join the fight with the KURDISH YPG against TURKEY. In my opinion, the RUSSIAN strategic manoeuvring represents the new geopolitical realities in the region whereby decisions are made that best serve strategic personal, financial and political interests as RUSSIA allowed TURKISH forces to enter SYRIA, while contemporaneously blocking any attempt by the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) air force and ground troops to join the fight with the KURDISH YPG against TURKEY, to in essence give TURKEY an opportunity to conquer this KURDISH territory of AFRIN knowing full well that the TURKISH and Free Syrian Army (FSA) forces were far superior in strength when combined with TURKISH air force power, to essentially force the KURDISH YPG to retreat out of AFRIN or suffer disastrous consequences in terms of military casualties, as RUSSIA seems to have chosen to give the FSA a foothold in northern SYRIA at the expense of the KURDISH YPG while focusing SAA efforts on the EASTERN GHOUTA region, to capture this critical territory from the FSA as EASTERN GHOUTA is far more strategic to the SAA than AFRIN as EASTERN GHOUTA is close to DAMASCUS, the capital of SYRIA, such that it is possible for the FSA to fire mortars into the heart of the capital, which has previously led to hundreds of civilian deaths, such that RUSSIA has in substance given the FSA AFRIN in exchange for EASTERN GHOUTA, while replacing TURKEY’s seventy year military alliance with the U.S. and creating a new long-term TURKISH and RUSSIAN strategic partnership that represents a huge loss for the U.S. and a prize for RUSSIA. IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions As a friendly reminder, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after over one year of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power. However, KURDISH and IRAQI forces still need to be vigilant for ISIS reunions to launch attacks through small covert groups of suicide attackers. In my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Hider al-Abadi’s announcement of full liberation of IRAQI lands with an official declaration of an end of the war against ISIS is accurate in theory but not in practice as significant ISIS fighters are still hiding underground like rats. In my opinion, this week’s Associated Press revelation that the IRAQI Government has detained or imprisoned at least 19,000 people accused of connections to ISIS while sentencing more than 3,000 of them to death, seems to raise concerns that the mass incarcerations and speed of guilty verdicts could very well be caused by potential over zealous miscarriages of justice such that jailed ISIS militants could very well start revenge recruiting within the general prison population to build new ISIS extremist networks to avenge any perceived miscarriages of justice. In my opinion, it is important for the justice system to always remain fair and neutral to prevent breeding a new race of extremists similar to ISIS with poisoned minds in hate induced coma states of rage behaving like complete and utter psychopaths of the mentally deranged triggered by perceived deficiencies in the application of justice based on race, religion or creed. However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS. Meanwhile, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. In my opinion, this week’s KURDISH politicians continuing with their total withdrawal from the IRAQI political arena is not surprising after the IRAQI parliament approved the 2018 budget with a reduced share for the KURDISH autonomous region from 17% of the IRAQI budget as had been the case since the new IRAQI government was formed after the U.S. led invasion to the proportion of the KURDISH population that the IRAQI government estimates to be at 12.6%. In my opinion, the 17% demand by the KURDISH government is reasonable as at least 17% of IRAQI soil is covered with KURDISH blood such that the KURDS earned their 17% share through blood, sweat and tears as the KURDISH forces held back ISIS forces from conquering IRAQ in its entirety while IRAQI forces were scrambling and nowhere to be seen. Therefore, given the current difficulties encountered between the KURDISH and IRAQI governments concerning the budget allocation, I was not surprised to see the IRAQI government prepared to cooperate with TURKEY in the field of counter-terrorism against the KURDISH PKK factions on the basis of military risks to the sovereignty of both IRAQ and TURKEY. In my opinion, I believe that when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that TURKEY would, at any time, launch operations in IRAQ’s northern SINJAR region against the KURDISH PKK, a group designated by TURKEY as a terrorist group for engaging in decades of armed confrontations with TURKEY, he meant it such that it is just a matter of time before TURKISH airstrikes are conducted in northern IRAQ against the KURDISH PKK locations. SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions As a friendly reminder, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, it finally does appear that ISIS has been defeated in DEIR AL-ZOR, AL-MAYADEEN and AL-BUKAMAL albeit violent clashes that sporadically continue to erupt around the town as ISIS finds itself trapped like rats underground only to be swept to the surface as the SAA goes through their respective sweeping operations across the outskirts of town. However, with the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declaring that they have completely wiped out ISIS in SYRIA, I expect that the remaining ISIS militants will be hiding in small towns and villages along the border with IRAQ in the SYRIAN dessert such that the remaining portion of no mans land along the Middle Euphrates River Valley will most likely represent ISIS’s last stand. In my opinion, ISIS still controls thousands of square kilometres of desert in the DEIR AL-ZOR, HOMS, IDLIB and DARAA regions such that although ISIS has been forced out of major SYRIAN cities, ISIS is still able to stage attacks on SAA and other rebel forces from these desert areas such that victory may have been achieved albeit ISIS still existing as a thorn in everybodies sides. However, this week, I was surprised to see TURKISH artillery continuing to fire into SYRIA’s AFRIN region out of pure infuriation over the announcement of U.S. plans to train a 30,000 border force in the area of northern SYRIA where KURDISH YPG dominated forces drove out ISIS fighters last year while TURKEY now promises to strangle the KURDISH terrorist force before it is ever able to come into existence. Meanwhile, in my opinion, if the only option the KURDISH YPG has to repel the TURKISH attack on AFRIN are the SYRIAN militias who are believed to be IRANIAN trained, so be it, as long as they can get the job done to stave off TURKEY’s attempts at an invasion. In my opinion, the SYRIANS need to regain control of their own country and decide on their own future in unison such that a united stand between the SYRIAN Regime and the KURDISH YPG may force TURKEY to stand down and come back to the negotiating table on behalf of the FSA to once and for all put an end to this insane bloodbath. Nonetheless, this week TURKEY pressed ahead with its mission and pounded AFRIN while President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated that the strike against the KURDISH YPG was necessary due to more than 700 attacks, over the last year alone, that have been launched from the AFRIN area under KURDISH YPG control against TURKISH cities. Meanwhile, Reality Check extensively researched public reports of attacks on TURKEY in the time period mentioned, using several different sources, and it could only find reports of 26 attacks from SYRIA between January 1, 2017 and January 20, 2018 while only 15 of those attacks came from AFRIN. Therefore, the situation in AFRIN clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the dominant personal, financial and political interests twist, turn and manipulate all underlying facts and circumstances to obtain their desired results to launch an offensive regardless of any reality checks that clearly indicate that premise for attacks predicated on complete and utter propaganda bullshit. In regards to the Syrian city of RAQQA, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires. In my opinion, now in its seventh year, the war in SYRIA has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society. Nonetheless, this week, it was sad to see the war in SYRIA entering into a dangerous new phase as EASTERN GHOUTA under attack by SYRIAN Regime forces on so-called SYRIAN rebel terrorists is a human tragedy that is unfolding before everybodies eyes such that in my opinion the international community cannot let things keep going in this horrendous fashion. As a friendly reminder, in some of the worst bombardment campaigns of the war in SYRIA, over one thousand people have been killed and over five thousand have been injured in EASTERN GHOUTA, a Free Syrian Army (FSA) held enclave that is home to about 400,000 people that borders the SYRIAN capital of Damascus. In my opinion, President Bashar al-Assad wants to recapture EASTERN GHOUTA because it is so close to DAMASCUS, the capital of SYRIA, that it is possible for rebels to fire mortars into the heart of the capital, as was done this week resulting in the deaths of 35 innocent civilians that targeted a market in the KASHKOUL neighbourhood in JARAMANA, a southeast suburb of DAMASCUS. In my opinion, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under President Bashar al-Assad have effectively captured over 80% of EASTERN GHOUTA such that although talks between RUSSIA and rebel fighters were happening behind the scenes, the renewed bombardment by the SAA is a clear indication that negotiations were not going well. In my opinion, although the rebels want a ceasefire deal, they are now in a weak position and shrinking in rebel-controlled territories under heavy fire from the SAA such that President Bashar al-Assad now seeks a full surrender of all rebel forces. In my opinion, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, as ISIS literally disappears from the face of the map in SYRIA, the question has become whether a race to conquer the oil rich regions could result in a showdown between the international coalitions consisting of the U.S. and SDF forces on the one side and the RUSSIAN and SAA forces on the other and/ or TURKEY on the one hand and KURDISH YPG and SAA forces on the other. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS such that this war could very well continue for years to come if RUSSIA is not given mediator powers to negotiate a deal between all Parties. In my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and madness. Summary In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 291” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby decisions are made that best serve strategic personal, financial and political interests as RUSSIA allowed TURKISH forces to enter SYRIA, while contemporaneously blocking any attempt by the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) air force and ground troops to join the fight with the KURDISH YPG against TURKEY, to in essence give TURKEY an opportunity to conquer this KURDISH territory of AFRIN, as RUSSIA seems to have chosen to give the Free Syrian Army (FSA) a foothold in northern SYRIA at the expense of the KURDISH YPG while focusing SAA efforts on the EASTERN GHOUTA region, to capture this critical territory from the FSA close to DAMASCUS, the capital of SYRIA, such that RUSSIA has in substance given the FSA AFRIN in exchange for EASTERN GHOUTA, while replacing TURKEY’s seventy year military alliance with the U.S. and creating a new long-term TURKISH and RUSSIAN strategic partnership that represents a huge loss for the U.S. and a prize for RUSSIA.
