In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 309” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while focusing on the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby ISRAEL will not back down from its position that IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA while citing LEBANON to justify ISRAEL’s position, as today the IRANIANS control LEBANON via HEZBOLLAH forces next to the border with ISRAEL, fuelling U.S. President Donald Trump’s flamboyant outbursts via Twitter, including an all-caps tweet that appeared to threaten IRAN with military attack, with IRAN’s response warning the U.S. against threatening IRAN, while promising that were the U.S. to begin a war with IRAN, IRAN would finish it, clearly demonstrating that tensions are at an all time high, with flamboyant outbursts from all sides, except to the extent the outbursts are verbal, they can be contained, but to the extent the outbursts roar from canons set ablaze, rest assured that every inch of land in the region would be razed, such that the only hope for peace at this stage, seems to rest in the hands of the RUSSIANS to negotiate some sort of deal, with plenty of RUSSIAN vodka available at the time of signing, for everybody to seal the deal right before they keel.
TURKEY News
As a friendly reminder, TURKEY has been on the defense ever since an internal military “Coup D’État” failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP focused their attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say that the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants.
During the week ending on Sunday, July 29, 2018, the focus in TURKEY continued to be on the results of the elections held on June 24, 2018 as this was the most pivotal election in modern TURKISH history that will now result in the abolition of the prime minister’s role and thus President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems well positioned to fulfill his dreams of obtaining supreme political power while overturning almost a century of parliamentary rule. Thus, TURKEY’s main opposition parties that created a broad electoral alliance before the general elections could not create a significant enough challenge to the dominance of the governing AKP party under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Although President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won the presidential race, the opposition block in parliament does not look like it will impose a significant challenge to the governing AKP. That is, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s closest rival consisting of Muharrem İnce of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) who turned out to be a charismatic speaker who could attract people to his rallies only ended up being the choice of his grassroots supporters. Therefore, Muharrem İnce only managed to increase the main opposition CHP vote from the stable 25% to 30.6% percent but that was not enough as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was able to win more than half of the votes in the first round.
It is important to note that, last week, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan allowed TURKEY’s two-year state of emergency to come to an end but as trials of dissidents and journalists continue, human rights campaigners continue to pressure TURKEY to do more to reverse a suffocating crackdown on free speech. Critics claim that the state of emergency, in place since the failed “Coup D’État” in July of 2016 that killed 250 people and wounded 1,400, has been used to detain opponents of the governing AKP for lengthy periods of time without trial to intimidate dissidents and to prosecute media outlets. That is, more than 120,000 people in the police, military, academia, media and civil service have been detained or dismissed from their jobs over their alleged links to Fethullah Gulen who is the exiled TURKISH preacher based now in the U.S. who TURKEY blames as the brains behind the operations for the failed “Coup D’État”. However, the behaviours of TURKEY’s governing AKP seem to be taking their toll on the TURKISH economy as turbulent politics have resulted in economic turmoil whereby the sliding TURKISH Lira has set-off alarm bells across TURKEY as businesses struggle to cope with the financial impacts of a declining TURKISH Lira. It is important to note that the economic challenges TURKEY is facing deepened this week as the TURKISH Lira plunged by 4.2% after the TURKISH central bank shocked the financial markets by keeping interest rates on hold. Although, the first monetary policy meeting since President Recep Tayyip Erdogan took office was held this week, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stood by his principal that high rates should be avoided by keeping interest rates unchanged, thanks to his son-in-law, Berat Albayrak, who was recently named as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s economic chief.
Meanwhile, the leaders of three major players in SYRIA, RUSSIA, IRAN and TURKEY ended their last summit with a commitment to achieving a lasting ceasefire in SYRIA, even as the future role of U.S. forces in SYRIA remains in doubt. The meeting in the TURKISH capital of ANKARA brought together two of SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad’s strongest supporters, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of TURKEY, as the primary backer of the opposition Free Syrian Army (FSA). Notably absent from the talks were representatives from SYRIA itself and from the U.S., another important player in the SYRIAN conflict. In an unusual show of solidarity with IRAN, Turkish President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan told his IRANIAN counterpart Hassan Rouhani that he found the U.S. decision to withdraw from a 2015 nuclear deal with IRAN to be wrong. In a telephone call, TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan told IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani that TURKEY wanted the deal to be maintained, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would pull out from the deal. Meanwhile, this week, ISRAEL and TURKEY relations appeared to be soured as TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated his resolve to advance the interests of TURKEY with the MUSLIM world including IRAN and the PLESTINIANS.
Therefore, ISRAEL and TURKEY once again appear to be on a collision course that is not GAZA or the peace process with the PALESTINIANS but rather ISRAEL and TURKEY relations appeared to be soured this week as TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blasted the new ISRAELI nation state law as embodying the spirit of Hitler. As a friendly reminder, Adolf Hitler was the German politician who was the leader of the NAZI Party and Chancellor of Germany from 1933 to 1945 and who as dictator initiated World War II in Europe and was responsible for the Jewish Holocaust. Thus, the ISRAELI nation state law, which officially recognises ISRAEL as the home for Jewish people, provoked anger amongst ARAB leaders, who expressed their concerns over the possibilities now for discrimination against ARAB citizens while accusing ISRAEL of trying to create an apartheid state. It is important to note that following the new ISRAELI law, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that only the Jews have the right of self-determination, and thus called out ISRAEL as a fascist and racist country. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan further elaborated that Israel legitimises oppression and unlawful actions and was the most Zionist, fascist and racist country in the world as he pushed forward with an international protest against ISRAEL’s new legislation. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan further stated that there is no difference between Hitler’s Aryan race obsession and ISRAEL’s mentality such that Hitler’s spirit has re-emerged among administrators in ISRAEL. Thus, with an epic building climax, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan added that ISRAEL was now appearing to become a terror state by using military warfare against the PALESTINIANS such that the new legislation would drown the region and world into blood and suffering.
IRAQ News
As a friendly reminder, the KURDS still consider the September 25 referendum victory as the culmination of decades of struggle for a KURDISH state of their own although the IRAQI government has clearly stated that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. However, after the votes were tallied and the referendum passed with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, Iraq’s top SHIITE cleric out right rejected the outcome of KURDISTAN’s independence vote despite the overwhelming 92% voting in favour of separating from IRAQ. Subsequently, IRAQI forces along with IRANIAN trained paramilitaries deployed heavy weaponry build up in KIRKUK, the jewel of the proposed future KURDISTAN state enabling IRAQI forces to take control of all major areas of KIRKUK province from KURDISH YPG fighters. In particular, IRAQI forces took ALTON KUPRI, the oil-rich province of KURDISTAN as rocket; artillery and heavy machine-gun fire erupted in the region.
Subsequently, IRAQI Kurdish authorities stated that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession. However, the KURDS also stated that this decision must become a basis for starting an inclusive national dialogue between KURDISTAN and IRAQ to resolve all disputes through implementation of all constitutional articles and in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution because all elements of the IRAQI Constitution must be respected in order to secure the unity of IRAQ. Meanwhile, this week, KURDISH politicians continued to boycott IRAQI parliament with relentless protests at the reduction of KURDISTAN’s share from 17% to nearly 12% of the IRAQI parliament approved 2018 budget. Further, highlighting the division was IRAQ accusing KURDISTAN of corruption in handling oil exports from fields under the KURDISTAN region’s control while IRAQ also went so far as to suggest that revenues could be sufficient to satisfy KURDISTAN expenses otherwise which the KURDISTAN government obviously refuted.
Meanwhile this week, the only thing that appears certain after the May 12, 2018 election is that the voters have rejected both IRAN and the U.S. consisting of the two outside powers that have dominated IRAQI internal affairs since 2003 such that the election of a coalition headed by the populist SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr is a sign that a growing number of IRAQIS are eager to reassert their identity and independence. Thus, all the IRAQI election did was establish a framework for the real political negotiations that are currently ongoing and will likely take months to complete. However, there are two obvious potential outcomes from IRAQI political party negotiations with substantial regional and international consequences. That is, the first potential outcome is a coalition headed by Moqtada al-Sadr that probably means a diminishing U.S. presence in IRAQ combined with an IRAQI government that is independent of IRAN’s influence while reintegrating an independent and sovereign IRAQ into the Arab world. Conversely, the second potential outcome is a coalition headed by the pro-IRANIAN Fatah Alliance representing the SHIITE militias along with parties loyal to former Prime Ministers Haider al-Abadi and Nouri al-Maliki as well as smaller groups such as the Kurdistan Coalition that would result in an overtly pro-IRANIAN government. Nonetheless, IRAQ’s parliament ordered a full recount of IRAQ’s recent parliamentary election that resulted in a shock victory for SHIA leader Muqtada al-Sadr. Furthermore, last week, in spite of dramatic differences, the three parties that gained the most votes in IRAQ’s May 12, 2018 parliamentary elections agreed to work together to form a new IRAQI government. Ironically, the driving force behind this odd alliance is SHIA cleric Muqtada al-Sadr who seems to be ready, willing and able to work with Hadi al-Amiri, head of the most powerful IRAN-backed SHIA militia and outgoing president Haidar al-Abadi, the U.S. choice to head the new IRAQI government.
Meanwhile this week, uncertainty appeared to be looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, while the election results still hang in the backdrop without any conclusive outcome other that the likelihood of a coalition government amongst the three major political players as discussed above. Thus, in recent weeks, a number of journalists and commentators in IRAQ have been talking about how ISIS has not yet been destroyed but rather seems to be regrouping and on the rise once again. It now appears to be surfacing that over the past two months, dozens of people, including local government officials, tribal elders and village chiefs, have been abducted and killed or ransomed by ISIS fighters. Furthermore, electricity infrastructure and oil pipelines have been blown up as armed ISIS fighters, dressed as IRAQI security forces, have been creating fake checkpoints in order to hijack trucks and rob traveller such that the main BAGHDAD-KIRKUK highway has been rendered unsafe by ISIS fighters. Thus, it appears that IRAQ’s ISIS nightmare may be attempting to return, after having gone underground or scattered, when Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared victory in December 2017 against ISIS, as well as declaring that the war was over putting an official end to the three years of ISIS control of almost a third of IRAQ.
SYRIA News
As a friendly reminder, the current SYRIAN government under the control of President Bashar al-Assad stated that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA, which was liberated from ISIS by the U.S. backed and KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In particular, the existing SYRIAN regime stated that both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime. Meanwhile, fighting has continued sporadically in EASTERN GHOUTA as RUSSIA formally stated that the massive RUSSIAN backed SYRIAN military offensive is almost over with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels now cornered in just a single town after being forced to abandon the greater part of the EASTERN GHOUTA region. Meanwhile several weeks ago, dozens of people were killed, including children, during the alleged toxic bombing, using chemical weapons, of rebel-held DOUMA, in the EASTERN GHOUTA region. Not surprisingly, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the U.S. military, in conjunction with France and the United Kingdom, to launch strikes on SYRIA in retaliation for the suspected chemical weapons attack by the SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad. However, U.S., British and French missile strikes had a limited impact on SYRIAN president Bashar al-Assad’s ability to carry out chemical weapons attacks in the future even though U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted Mission Accomplished after the attacks claiming that they had successfully struck the heart of SYRIA’s chemical weapons program.
However, this week the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN ally focused their attention on the southern province of DERAA where they have intensified their bombing campaign after a ceasefire deal between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels and the Russians broke down. Meanwhile, SAA government forces stated that they have retaken a town that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war that engulfed SYRIA for over seven years now as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war. It is important to note that under an agreement reached with Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels, the SYRIAN government stated that the rebels would hand over their heavy and medium weapons while those who agree to the accord will be allowed to remain in the region while those who refuse reconciliation will be evacuated. However, this week, the SAA campaign intensified as QUNEITRA, the heavily populated city that lies northwest of DERAA, representing the largest sector still held by rebels in the Golan Heights, came under attack as the SAA launched intensive aerial strikes on the city. It is important to note that dozens of civilian casualties were recorded as the SAA pushed forward with a RUSSIAN-backed offensive in the area. Thus, the SAA forces were able to raise the SYRIAN flag in the largely ruined city of QUNEITRA as the SYRIAN government tightens its hold on the SYRIAN section of the Golan Heights which is a strategic territory bordering both ISRAEL and JORDAN.
Meanwhile, the tensions between IRAN and ISRAEL seem to have continued to escalate again after ISRAELI airstrikes targeted IRANIAN military infrastructure inside SYRIA several weeks ago. Obviously, IRAN condemned the wave of ISRAELI air strikes in SYRIA and clearly stated that these attacks by ISRAEL represent a blatant violation of SYRIA’s sovereignty such that IRAN has backed SYRIA’s right to defend itself against ISRAEL. It is important to note that the strikes were the heaviest strikes carried out by ISRAEL on SYRIA in decades that came right after twenty rockets were fired at ISRAELI military positions in the occupied Golan Heights of SYRIA. It is no secret that the strikes hurt IRAN that has deployed hundreds of troops inside SYRIA as military advisers to the SYRIAN governments Syrian Arab Army (SAA) while thousands of IRANIAN militia armed, trained and financed by IRAN have also been battling SYRIAN rebel forces alongside the SAA. ISRAEL stated that ISRAELI fighter jets struck almost IRAN’s entire military infrastructure inside Syria consisting of some 70 targets in ISRAELS biggest assault since SYRIA’s civil war commenced in 2011.
Subsequently, this week, the tone escalated between ISRAEL and IRAN, as ISRAEL continues to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to be adamant that the IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. Furthermore, ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cites Lebanon as a perfect example, as today the IRANIANS control LEBANON via HEZBOLLAH forces next to the border with ISRAEL, such that ISRAEL will not accept a similar reality on the border with SYRIA. However, it now seems that the U.S. is also becoming more vocal against IRAN with U.S. President Donald Trump’s flamboyant outbursts via Twitter including an all-caps tweet that appeared to threaten IRAN with military attack. However, the verbal confrontations between the U.S. and IRAN have been intensifying almost from the moment the U.S. walked away from the landmark 2015 nuclear deal. Obviously, that deal brought IRAN’s nuclear program under tight international controls but freed IRAN from heavy sanctions that the U.S. has on its part once again imposed such that IRAN has been creating problems for the U.S. and its allies ever since. It is important to note that IRAN’s commander of the IRANIAN Army, General Qassem Soleimani, warned U.S. President Donald Trump against threatening IRAN while promising that were the U.S. to begin a war with IRAN, IRAN would finish it.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the KURDS as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis.
Meanwhile, this week’s focus in TURKEY continued to be on the results of the elections held on June 24, 2018 as it represented the most pivotal election in modern TURKISH history that will now result in the abolition of the prime minister’s role and thus President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems poised to fulfill his dreams by obtaining supreme political power while overturning almost a century of parliamentary rule. Although in my opinion the coalition formed by the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the Iyi Party (IP), the Islamist Saadet Party (SP) and the Democrat Party (DP) makes complete sense strategically, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan still won the presidential race with the opposition block not gaining any significant increases in parliament to pose a significant challenge to the governing AKP. In my opinion, the governing AKP was able to capitalize on positive TURKISH nationalist sentiments after the TURKISH military victory in AFRIN as the governing AKP had never before called early elections in the nearly 16 years the governing AKP has been in power. Therefore, the June 24 elections resulted in another dominant win for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with a commanding 52.6% of the more than 50 million votes, thus exceeding the 50% threshold to get elected in the first round. However, it would not have been possible for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to get re-elected if his governing AKP Party had not allied with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) such that the two parties will now be working closely together in a coalition to run the TURKISH country.
However, last week, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan allowed TURKEY’s two-year state of emergency to come to an end, but as trials of dissidents and journalists continue, human rights campaigners continue to pressure TURKEY to do more to reverse a suffocating crackdown on free speech. In my opinion, over the last two years, TURKEY has been radically transformed with emergency measures used to consolidate authoritarian powers, silence opposition voices and take away basic human rights and civil liberties. However, the behaviours of TURKEY’s governing AKP seem to be taking their toll on the TURKISH economy as turbulent politics have resulted in economic turmoil whereby the sliding TURKISH Lira has set-off alarm bells across TURKEY as businesses struggle to cope with the financial impacts of a declining TURKISH Lira. In my opinion, Although, thanks to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s son-in-law, Berat Albayrak, who was recently named as economic chief, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s principal that high rates should be avoided was respected as interest rates remained unchanged. However, the TURKISH central bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, seems to have crushed all hopes that TURKEY would return to a more traditional monetary policy, and thus seems to have set-off the 4.2% currency decline with the weakening TURKISH Lira creating significant risks of fuelling inflation, pressuring a highly indebted corporate sector and deterring critical flows of foreign investment out of TURKEY. In my opinion, TURKEY now risks being locked in a vicious economic downward cycle as a weaker TURKISH Lira will put huge pressure on corporate and bank balance sheets, with reductions of capital investment flows, that would put further pressure on the TURKISH Lira triggering further inflation. Therefore, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan needs to wake-up from his authoritarian stance and understand that TURKEY has a heavy reliance on foreign financing such that the President needs to please both the TURKISH business community but also the financial markets because unless he understands where his priorities should be focused, TURKEY looks to be heading in the direction of a recession.
In regards to the leaders of three major players in SYRIA; RUSSIA, IRAN and TURKEY ending their last summit with a commitment to achieving a lasting ceasefire in SYRIA, even as the future role of U.S. forces in SYRIA remains in doubt, everyone seems to agree with the overall principal that a SYRIAN peace deal followed by humanitarian aid is critical albeit the realities that the respective parties cannot seem to be able to agree on the details in terms of timing and logistics. In regards to the unusual show of solidarity with IRAN whereby Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his IRANIAN counterpart Hassan Rouhani that he found the U.S. decision to withdraw from a 2015 nuclear deal with IRAN to be wrong, I am not surprised as TURKEY recognizes that the deal was the product of more than a decade of diplomacy whereby the final nuclear agreement signed in July of 2015 by the U.S., France, Britain, Germany, Russia, China and Iran represents a milestone that the U.S. has now unilaterally decided to withdraw from. Not surprisingly, among the few nations to welcome U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision were ISRAEL and SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN’s arch-nemesis in the Middle East.
However, ISRAEL and TURKEY relations appeared to be soured this week as TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blasted the new ISRAELI nation state law as embodying the spirit of Hitler. In my opinion, the ISRAELI nation state law, which officially recognises ISRAEL as the home for Jewish people, obviously provoked anger amongst ARAB leaders, who expressed their concerns over the possibilities now for discrimination against ARAB citizens while accusing ISRAEL of trying to create an apartheid state. Thus, in my opinion if ISRAEL chose to adopt such as nationalist Jewish stance, they should have also expressly stated in the new legislation that all other religions would be treated equally such that the recognition of ISRAEL as the home for Jewish people is more symbolic in nature than legalistic. Furthermore, ISRAEL should have also expressly stated that the new law would not make it any more difficult to resolve the ISRAELI and PALESTINIAN conflict. Nonetheless, ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chose to ignore the route of softening the impact of the new law, by presenting it as more symbolic in nature than legalistic. Thus, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chose to hit back at President Recep Tayyip Erdogan by criticising him for turning TURKEY into a dark dictatorship that massacres Syrians and Kurds such that this criticism of the Nation State Law is the greatest compliment President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could possibly pay ISRAEL. In my opinion, the new legislation has obviously provoked fears that it will lead to blatant discrimination against its PALESTINIAN citizens, as it makes Hebrew ISRAEL’s national language and defines the establishment of JEWISH communities as being in the national interest while stripping ARABIC of its designation as an official language. However, in my opinion, this clearly demonstrates that ISRAEL only seems to believe in the possibility for peace with the PALESTINIANS via a two-state solution such that ISRAEL would in essence remain a primarily JEWISH state and PALESTINE obviously becoming a primarily ARAB state.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
Meanwhile, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. In my opinion, this week’s KURDISH politicians continuing with their total withdrawal from the IRAQI political arena is not surprising after the IRAQI parliament approved the 2018 budget with a reduced share for the KURDISH autonomous region from 17% of the IRAQI budget as had been the case since the new IRAQI government was formed after the U.S. led invasion to the proportion of the KURDISH population that the IRAQI government estimates to be at 12.6%. In my opinion, the 17% demand by the KURDISH government is reasonable as at least 17% of IRAQI soil is covered with KURDISH blood such that the KURDS earned their 17% share through blood, sweat and tears as the KURDISH forces held back ISIS forces from conquering IRAQ in its entirety while IRAQI forces were scrambling and nowhere to be seen.
Meanwhile, in regards to the analysis of IRAQI election results, it is certain that the IRAQI political structure remains complicated with the biggest number of parliamentary seats of 54 won by the coalition headed by the populist SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, a coalition of pro-IRANIAN Shiite parties finishing second with 47 seats while the block led by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, the U.S. favourite, finishing closely with 42 seats. In my opinion, either a coalition under Moqtada al-Sadr will emerge or a pro-IRANIAN coalition under the Fatah Alliance will emerge such that either way, it seems that the U.S. presence in IRAQ will likely diminish over time. In my opinion, many Americans still remember Moqtada al-Sadr from the post-invasion period of IRAQI history when he commanded a militia that attacked U.S. forces and committed atrocities against the SUNNI population. Ironically, Moqtada al-Sadr never reconciled with the U.S. while contemporaneously having a bitter falling out with IRAN. However, in my opinion, Moqtada al-Sadr seems to now be repositioning IRAQ for closer relations with SAUDI ARABIA that once wrote-off IRAQ as a victory for IRAN while now once again, the SAUDI Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, seems to be courting IRAQI’s SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. In my opinion, last weeks ordering by IRAQ’s parliament of a full recount of IRAQ’s recent parliamentary election that resulted in a shock victory for SHIA leader Muqtada al-Sadr is not surprising as nobody ever expected him to win.
In regards to this weeks uncertainty looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, while the election results still hang in the backdrop without any conclusive outcome other that the likelihood of a coalition government amongst the three major political players as discussed above, it is obvious that IRAQ now finds itself once again with a weak government at the moment when IRAQ needs to be as strong as possible to cope with the potential for an ISIS re-emergence. Thus, although U.S. President Donald Trump congratulated ALLIANCE troops for defeating ISIS in Iraq, it now seems that ISIS is not destroyed but rather in the process of regrouping and is actually once again on the rise in IRAQ. In my opinion, poor governance, lack of public infrastructure and high levels of corruption, particularly in poor SUNNI areas, is helping to fuel ISIS’s objectives of attempt a comeback after its crushing defeat. I believe that the root of the ISIS re-emergence is that it does not seem to take much to manipulate the frustrations of the IRAQI population. That is, particularly in poor SUNNI areas, IRAQIS live in a rich country with an abundance of oil while widespread corruption seems to take away from their entitlement to basic minimal needs. Furthermore, it seems that IRAQIS who lost their homes in the fight against ISIS in major SUNNI dominated towns such as MOSUL and TIKRIT were allowed to return only after paying off SHIITE dominated ministries that obviously fuels the ISIS recruiting machine for new local people to help with ISIS’s dirty deeds. Therefore, in my opinion, a complete U.S. pull out from IRAQ at this stage could play straight into the hands of ISIS such that it would be best for the U.S. to remain until such time as ISIS no longer poses a threat of re-emergence.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, the war in SYRIA entered into a dangerous phase when EASTERN GHOUTA was under attack by SYRIAN Regime forces on so-called SYRIAN rebel terrorists is a human tragedy that unfolded before everybodies eyes such that in my opinion the international community cannot let things keep going in this horrendous fashion. As a friendly reminder, in some of the worst bombardment campaigns of the war in SYRIA, over one thousand people have been killed and over five thousand have been injured in EASTERN GHOUTA, a Free Syrian Army (FSA) held enclave that is home to about 400,000 people that borders the SYRIAN capital of Damascus. In my opinion, President Bashar al-Assad wants to recapture EASTERN GHOUTA because it is so close to DAMASCUS, the capital of SYRIA, that it is possible for rebels to fire mortars into the heart of the capital. In my opinion, the alleged toxic bombing several weeks ago, using chemical weapons, of rebel-held DOUMA, in the EASTERN GHOUTA region killing dozens of people, including children, was deplorable to say the least. Therefore, U.S. President Donald Trump was forced to order the U.S. military, in conjunction with France and the United Kingdom, to launch strikes on SYRIA in retaliation for the suspected chemical weapons attack by the SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad.
In regards to this week’s Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN ally focusing their attention on the southern province of DERAA where they have intensified their bombing campaign after a ceasefire deal between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels and the Russians broke down, I am not surprised to see the intensification of air raids as SYRIAN troops have vowed to advance steadily to recapture lost territory until such time as a ceasefire agreement is negotiated. Thus, I was not surprised when SAA government forces retook a town that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war. Thus, in my opinion, this week’s focus of the SAA campaign that intensified on QUNEITRA, the heavily populated city that lies northwest of DERAA, representing the largest sector still held by rebels in the Golan Heights, is not surprising. However, in my opinion, RUSSIA will not cease with its bombardments until a ceasefire arrangement is reached with the FSA. Thus, a RUSSIAN brokered deal now allows the return of SAA brigades that existed before the conflict began in 2011 to where they were stationed near the demilitarized zone although there have been no signs of significant deployment of SYRIAN army troops so far. In my opinion, the Israeli government will not stop the SAA army presence in Quneitra as long as it keeps away from the demilitarized zone but ISRAEL will continue to attack along it’s frontier with SYRIA and elsewhere in SYRIA where it suspects IRANIAN-backed forces are stationed.
Meanwhile, in regards to this week’s escalation of tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN, I am not surprised to see ISRAEL continuing to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. In my opinion, ISRAEL will not back down from its position that IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. Furthermore, in my opinion, ISRAEL will continue to cite Lebanon as a perfect example to justify its actions, as today the IRANIANS control LEBANON via HEZBOLLAH forces next to the border with ISRAEL, such that ISRAEL will not accept a similar reality on the border with SYRIA. In regards to U.S. President Donald Trump’s flamboyant outbursts via Twitter including an all-caps tweet that appeared to threaten IRAN with military attack, I was not surprised with IRAN’s response warning U.S. President Donald Trump against threatening IRAN while promising that were the U.S. to begin a war with IRAN, IRAN would finish it. In my opinion, the verbal confrontations between the U.S. and IRAN have been intensifying almost from the moment the U.S. walked away from the landmark 2015 nuclear deal as the U.S. once again imposed heavy sanctions against IRAN such that IRAN has been creating problems for the U.S. and its allies ever since in retaliation.
In my opinion, the current situation in the Middle East depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War that would likely be triggered by a direct ISRAEL and IRAN conflict, such that all leaders across the globe must avoid the temptation to look away but rather should increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, minimize civilian casualties, prevent the further use of chemical weapons and alleviate the humanitarian crisis from a civil war spiralling out of control with no end in sight, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the Middle East. That being said, the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby ISRAEL will not back down from its position that IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA while citing LEBANON to justify ISRAEL’s position, as today the IRANIANS control LEBANON via HEZBOLLAH forces next to the border with ISRAEL, fuelling U.S. President Donald Trump’s flamboyant outbursts via Twitter, including an all-caps tweet that appeared to threaten IRAN with military attack, with IRAN’s response warning the U.S. against threatening IRAN, while promising that were the U.S. to begin a war with IRAN, IRAN would finish it, clearly demonstrating that tensions are at an all time high, with flamboyant outbursts from all sides, except to the extent the outbursts are verbal, they can be contained, but to the extent the outbursts roar from canons set ablaze, rest assured that every inch of land in the region would be razed, such that the only hope for peace at this stage, seems to rest in the hands of the RUSSIANS to negotiate some sort of deal, with plenty of RUSSIAN vodka available at the time of signing, for everybody to seal the deal right before they keel.
In my opinion, as was seen recently with ISIS able to mount limited but nonetheless painful blows to various factions in SYRIA with shock and awe attacks in DEIR EZZOR, AL BUKAMAL and AL MAYADEEN, it is important to note that although ISIS’s caliphate no longer exists and the ISIS flag does not fly over territory, ISIS has not disappeared but rather ISIS has reverted to old terrorist tactics used before 2014. That is, attacks against security forces and civilians, often involving fake checkpoints, have centered on ISIS’s former strongholds of rugged rural areas known as ISIS strongholds for being hospitable for ISIS to hide out because of the rough terrain so that ISIS has been able to dig tunnels and store weapons, ammunition and bomb-making materials. Therefore, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, although ISIS was literally disappearing from the face of the map in SYRIA, new showdowns between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) only serves to fuel the re-emergence of ISIS as a dangerous player in SYRIA. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS such that this war could very well continue for years to come if RUSSIA is not given mediator powers to negotiate a deal between all Parties. In my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and utter madness.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 309” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while focusing on the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby ISRAEL will not back down from its position that IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA while citing LEBANON to justify ISRAEL’s position, as today the IRANIANS control LEBANON via HEZBOLLAH forces next to the border with ISRAEL, fuelling U.S. President Donald Trump’s flamboyant outbursts via Twitter, including an all-caps tweet that appeared to threaten IRAN with military attack, with IRAN’s response warning the U.S. against threatening IRAN, while promising that were the U.S. to begin a war with IRAN, IRAN would finish it, clearly demonstrating that tensions are at an all time high, with flamboyant outbursts from all sides, except to the extent the outbursts are verbal, they can be contained, but to the extent the outbursts roar from canons set ablaze, rest assured that every inch of land in the region would be razed, such that the only hope for peace at this stage, seems to rest in the hands of the RUSSIANS to negotiate some sort of deal, with plenty of RUSSIAN vodka available at the time of signing, for everybody to seal the deal right before they keel.
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In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 308” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while focusing on the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby ISRAEL claims that ISRAELI intelligence agents stole clandestine IRANIAN documents this past winter, that reveal what ISRAEL calls IRAN’s extensive past research on nuclear bombs, that IRAN categorically denies as laughably absurd, albeit the validity of the claims being irrelevant as they seem to have served their purpose which is U.S. President Donald Trump renouncing the 2015 nuclear agreement with IRAN, just days after receiving a private briefing back in April, that was only now formally presented to the United Nations, that shows that IRAN is not a country that you can push around such that in order to obtain actions from the IRANIANS, persuasion is critical, such that ISRAELI pressure tactics tend to have the opposite effect of resistance from that intended of compliance, such that it is best to leave it up to the RUSSIANS to persuade the IRANIANS that ISRAEL’s border with SYRIA should be preserved in accordance with the 1974 Separation of Forces Agreement, that will bring peace to the GOLAN HEIGHTS, a more peaceful relationship between SYRIA & ISRAEL and provide security for the State of ISRAEL, that is traumatized at the thought of IRANIAN forces, including HEZBOLLAH, continuing to entrench themselves in SYRIA despite repeated ISRAELI Air Force strikes against IRANIAN bases in SYRIA.
TURKEY News
As a friendly reminder, TURKEY has been on the defense ever since an internal military “Coup D’État” failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP focused their attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say that the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants.
During the week ending on Sunday, July 22, 2018, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures although TURKEY’s crushing of the free press, destruction of the freedom of speech and restrictions to the right to peaceful demonstrations seems to be punishing the TURKISH economy as high inflation in TURKEY and a surge in foreign borrowing by TURKISH banks could plunge TURKEY into an economic crisis during 2018. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKISH forces and their Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel allies continued to celebrate the capture of AFRIN as the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) did not intervene so that TURKEY was in essence given the informal approval to crush the SYRIAN KURDISH region. However, at least 150,000 people have been displaced in AFRIN with estimates of the total number of civilian deaths at over 200 since TURKEY began its aggression in January of 2018 of the KURDISH region on the border between SYRIA and TURKEY under TURKEY’s Operation Olive Branch.
Meanwhile this week, the focus in TURKEY was on the results of the elections held on June 24, 2018 as this was the most pivotal election in modern TURKISH history that will now result in the abolition of the prime minister’s role and thus President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems well positioned to fulfill his dreams of obtaining supreme political power while overturning almost a century of parliamentary rule. Thus, TURKEY’s main opposition parties that created a broad electoral alliance before the general elections could not create a significant enough challenge to the dominance of the governing AKP party under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Although President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won the presidential race, the opposition block in parliament does not look like it will impose a significant challenge to the governing AKP. That is, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s closest rival consisting of Muharrem İnce of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) who turned out to be a charismatic speaker who could attract people to his rallies only ended up being the choice of his grassroots supporters. Therefore, Muharrem İnce only managed to increase the main opposition CHP vote from the stable 25% to 30.6% percent but that was not enough as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was able to win more than half of the votes in the first round.
It is important to note that, this week, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan allowed TURKEY’s two-year state of emergency to come to an end but as trials of dissidents and journalists continue, human rights campaigners continue to pressure TURKEY to do more to reverse a suffocating crackdown on free speech. Critics claim that the state of emergency, in place since the failed “Coup D’État” in July of 2016 that killed 250 people and wounded 1,400, has been used to detain opponents of the governing AKP for lengthy periods of time without trial to intimidate dissidents and to prosecute media outlets. That is, more than 120,000 people in the police, military, academia, media and civil service have been detained or dismissed from their jobs over their alleged links to Fethullah Gulen who is the exiled TURKISH preacher based now in the U.S. who TURKEY blames as the brains behind the operations for the failed “Coup D’État”. Turkey’s governing AKP has officially stated that it will not seek a renewal of the state of emergency, allowing it to expire two years after it was imposed, only days after Recep Tayyip Erdogan was once again sworn in as President for a new five-year term with sweeping new authoritarian powers that were narrowly approved in a referendum held last year. Of particular note, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s governing AKP party has tabled a controversial anti-terrorism bill that will ultimately retain some of the state of emergency measures with one provision that will allow local governors to impose curfews or to make some areas off-limits to the public which will make it much easier for the TURKISH government to ban demonstrations while the government still appears determined to continue its prosecutions of journalists and vocal opposition figures. Ironically, TURKISH prosecutors have already launched an investigation into the main opposition party leader over allegedly insulting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. That is, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) chief, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, is facing an investigation probe over his sharing a cartoon titled Land of Tayyips and thus faces possible charges of insulting the President.
In addition, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated that TURKEY would not stop until TURKEY has made safe all areas currently controlled by the KURDISH YPG starting with MANBIJ. However, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also stressed that TURKEY’s fight against the KURDISH YPG would not distract from efforts to eliminate the remnants of ISIS in SYRIA. Nonetheless, U.S. President Donald Trump announced his intent to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria as soon as the fight against ISIS is complete while stating that the U.S. will consult with groups of U.S. allies and coordinate with others in SYRIA in order to decide the U.S. next steps after the completion of the U.S. mission of defeat of ISIS in SYRIA while TURKEY continues to remain one of the allies that should be involved in these U.S. consultations. While the U.S. continues to describe its decision to work with the KURDISH YPG as a tactical, short-term approach to the defeat of ISIS, the U.S. seems to still desire to maintain relations with its NATO ally TURKEY on the basis that a Syria that is stabilized along terms dictated by IRAN goes against U.S. interests in the region. Meanwhile, the U.S. and TURKEY remain committed to the MANBIJ roadmap whereby the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) are scheduled to withdraw from MANBIJ shortly such that the deal with the U.S. on the MANBIJ issue seems to be proceeding without any problems except that TURKISH troops are continuing with their patrols of the MANBIJ outskirts but have yet to entered the town despite an agreement between TURKEY and the U.S. on the withdrawal of KURDISH units in the area.
Meanwhile, the leaders of three major players in SYRIA, RUSSIA, IRAN and TURKEY ended their last summit with a commitment to achieving a lasting ceasefire in SYRIA, even as the future role of U.S. forces in SYRIA remains in doubt. The meeting in the TURKISH capital of ANKARA brought together two of SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad’s strongest supporters, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of TURKEY, as the primary backer of the opposition Free Syrian Army (FSA). Notably absent from the talks were representatives from SYRIA itself and from the U.S., another important player in the SYRIAN conflict. In an unusual show of solidarity with IRAN, Turkish President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan told his IRANIAN counterpart Hassan Rouhani that he found the U.S. decision to withdraw from a 2015 nuclear deal with IRAN to be wrong. In a telephone call, TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan told IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani that TURKEY wanted the deal to be maintained, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would pull out from the deal. Meanwhile, this week, ISRAEL and TURKEY relations appeared to be soured as TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated his resolve to advance the interests of TURKEY with the MUSLIM world including IRAN and the PLESTINIANS. Therefore, ISRAEL and TURKEY once again appear to be on a collision course that is not GAZA or the peace process with the PALESTINIANS but rather ISRAEL and TURKEY relations appeared to be soured this week as TURKISH media accused a controversial religious cult leader, televangelist Adnan Oktar, who was arrested this week in TURKEY, of having links to ISRAEL. In summary, TURKISH police detained Adnan Oktar, also known as Harun Yahya, and accused his organization of crimes including forming a criminal gang, fraud, blackmail, sexual abuse and political and military espionage whereby over 170 suspects were rounded up with police confiscating truckloads of evidence, including over 70 weapons; 3,000 bullets; and an undisclosed amount of cash. Although the number of criminal complaints rose to 45 in six countries, the most serious are reports that Adnan Oktar is accused of transferring state secrets to ISRAEL. In particular, TURKEY seems to be focusing on ISRAELI lawmakers who insulted TURKEY via Adnan Oktar with outrageous slander against Sultan Abdulhamid, with photos where Adnan Oktar is shown with an ISRAELI rabbi and is accused of insulting the former Ottoman sultan for selling land to the Jews in Ottoman Palestine. It is important to note that Sultan Abdulhamid once owned tens of thousands of hectares in what is now Israel such that Adnan Oktar was deemed to be insulting the Sultan as an agent of ISRAEL while Adnan Oktar posed with ISRAELI Zionist politicians and clerics who were guests on his TV channels and received his accolades.
IRAQ News
As a friendly reminder, the KURDS still consider the September 25 referendum victory as the culmination of decades of struggle for a KURDISH state of their own although the IRAQI government has clearly stated that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. However, after the votes were tallied and the referendum passed with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, Iraq’s top SHIITE cleric out right rejected the outcome of KURDISTAN’s independence vote despite the overwhelming 92% voting in favour of separating from IRAQ. Subsequently, IRAQI forces along with IRANIAN trained paramilitaries deployed heavy weaponry build up in KIRKUK, the jewel of the proposed future KURDISTAN state enabling IRAQI forces to take control of all major areas of KIRKUK province from KURDISH YPG fighters. In particular, IRAQI forces took ALTON KUPRI, the oil-rich province of KURDISTAN as rocket; artillery and heavy machine-gun fire erupted in the region.
Subsequently, IRAQI Kurdish authorities stated that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession. However, the KURDS also stated that this decision must become a basis for starting an inclusive national dialogue between KURDISTAN and IRAQ to resolve all disputes through implementation of all constitutional articles and in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution because all elements of the IRAQI Constitution must be respected in order to secure the unity of IRAQ. Meanwhile, this week, KURDISH politicians continued to boycott IRAQI parliament with relentless protests at the reduction of KURDISTAN’s share from 17% to nearly 12% of the IRAQI parliament approved 2018 budget. Further, highlighting the division was IRAQ accusing KURDISTAN of corruption in handling oil exports from fields under the KURDISTAN region’s control while IRAQ also went so far as to suggest that revenues could be sufficient to satisfy KURDISTAN expenses otherwise which the KURDISTAN government obviously refuted.
Meanwhile this week, the only thing that appears certain after the May 12, 2018 election is that the voters have rejected both IRAN and the U.S. consisting of the two outside powers that have dominated IRAQI internal affairs since 2003 such that the election of a coalition headed by the populist SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr is a sign that a growing number of IRAQIS are eager to reassert their identity and independence. Thus, all the IRAQI election did was establish a framework for the real political negotiations that are currently ongoing and will likely take months to complete. However, there are two obvious potential outcomes from IRAQI political party negotiations with substantial regional and international consequences. That is, the first potential outcome is a coalition headed by Moqtada al-Sadr that probably means a diminishing U.S. presence in IRAQ combined with an IRAQI government that is independent of IRAN’s influence while reintegrating an independent and sovereign IRAQ into the Arab world. Conversely, the second potential outcome is a coalition headed by the pro-IRANIAN Fatah Alliance representing the SHIITE militias along with parties loyal to former Prime Ministers Haider al-Abadi and Nouri al-Maliki as well as smaller groups such as the Kurdistan Coalition that would result in an overtly pro-IRANIAN government. Nonetheless, IRAQ’s parliament ordered a full recount of IRAQ’s recent parliamentary election that resulted in a shock victory for SHIA leader Muqtada al-Sadr. Furthermore, last week, in spite of dramatic differences, the three parties that gained the most votes in IRAQ’s May 12, 2018 parliamentary elections agreed to work together to form a new IRAQI government. Ironically, the driving force behind this odd alliance is SHIA cleric Muqtada al-Sadr who seems to be ready, willing and able to work with Hadi al-Amiri, head of the most powerful IRAN-backed SHIA militia and outgoing president Haidar al-Abadi, the U.S. choice to head the new IRAQI government.
Meanwhile this week, uncertainty appeared to be looming over IRAQ as the election results still hang in the backdrop without any conclusive outcome other that the likelihood of a coalition government amongst the three major political players as discussed above. Thus, although security in IRAQ is better than at any other time since the U.S. invasion of 2003, IRAQIS now tend to focus less of their attention on the day-to-day business of staying alive and more on their corrupt and dysfunctional government. Furthermore, IRAQIS now seem to find themselves in a conundrum whereby they ask themselves where have the hundreds of billions of oil revenue dollars been spent as many IRAQIS still lack water, electricity, jobs and houses. It is important to note that protests that began this week in IRAQ are continuing amid widespread anger over unsatisfactory public service provisions by the IRAQI government. Although the protests were first sparked in the oil-rich southern province of BASRA, they ultimately spread to several cities including the capital of BAGHDAD as IRAQIS are showing their frustrations over widespread unemployment, pollution, dirty drinking water and electricity failures during an unbearable heat wave in the IRAQ’s south. While many of the protests have been peaceful, others have set buildings on fire, blocked roads and damaged infrastructure. It is important to note that residents of BASRA, which accounts for approximately 80% of IRAQ’s oil exports, believe that BASRA has been neglected, first by the SUNNI dictator Saddam Hussein and then by the SHIA-led governments that came after him, including Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi. Therefore, crude exports that account for approximately 95% of IRAQI revenue will likely be responsible for driving up global oil prices resulting in prolonged instability in the south.
SYRIA News
As a friendly reminder, the current SYRIAN government under the control of President Bashar al-Assad stated that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA, which was liberated from ISIS by the U.S. backed and KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In particular, the existing SYRIAN regime stated that both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime. Meanwhile, fighting has continued sporadically in EASTERN GHOUTA as RUSSIA formally stated that the massive RUSSIAN backed SYRIAN military offensive is almost over with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels now cornered in just a single town after being forced to abandon the greater part of the EASTERN GHOUTA region. Meanwhile several weeks ago, dozens of people were killed, including children, during the alleged toxic bombing, using chemical weapons, of rebel-held DOUMA, in the EASTERN GHOUTA region. Not surprisingly, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the U.S. military, in conjunction with France and the United Kingdom, to launch strikes on SYRIA in retaliation for the suspected chemical weapons attack by the SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad. However, U.S., British and French missile strikes had a limited impact on SYRIAN president Bashar al-Assad’s ability to carry out chemical weapons attacks in the future even though U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted Mission Accomplished after the attacks claiming that they had successfully struck the heart of SYRIA’s chemical weapons program.
However, this week the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN ally focused their attention on the southern province of DERAA where they have intensified their bombing campaign after a ceasefire deal between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels and the Russians broke down. Meanwhile, SAA government forces stated that they have retaken a town that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war that engulfed SYRIA for over seven years now as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war. It is important to note that under an agreement reached with Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels, the SYRIAN government stated that the rebels would hand over their heavy and medium weapons while those who agree to the accord will be allowed to remain in the region while those who refuse reconciliation will be evacuated. However, this week, the SAA campaign intensified as NAWA, the largest urban centre still held by rebels in DERAA, came under attack as the SAA launched intensive aerial strikes on the city. It is important to note that dozens of civilian casualties were recorded as the SAA pushed forward with a RUSSIAN-backed offensive in the area. It appears that dozens of missiles were also fired on the heavily populated city that lies northwest of DERAA near the QUNEITRA province adjoining the ISRAELI side of the GOLAN HEIGHTS, where the SAA moved earlier this week to control the remaining parts of SYRIA’s southwest province still in Free Syrian Army (FSA) hands.
Meanwhile, the tensions between IRAN and ISRAEL seem to have continued to escalate again after ISRAELI airstrikes targeted IRANIAN military infrastructure inside SYRIA several weeks ago. Obviously, IRAN condemned the wave of ISRAELI air strikes in SYRIA and clearly stated that these attacks by ISRAEL represent a blatant violation of SYRIA’s sovereignty such that IRAN has backed SYRIA’s right to defend itself against ISRAEL. It is important to note that the strikes were the heaviest strikes carried out by ISRAEL on SYRIA in decades that came right after twenty rockets were fired at ISRAELI military positions in the occupied Golan Heights of SYRIA. It is no secret that the strikes hurt IRAN that has deployed hundreds of troops inside SYRIA as military advisers to the SYRIAN governments Syrian Arab Army (SAA) while thousands of IRANIAN militia armed, trained and financed by IRAN have also been battling SYRIAN rebel forces alongside the SAA. ISRAEL stated that ISRAELI fighter jets struck almost IRAN’s entire military infrastructure inside Syria consisting of some 70 targets in ISRAELS biggest assault since SYRIA’s civil war commenced in 2011.
Subsequently, this week, the tone escalated between ISRAEL and IRAN, as ISRAEL claims that ISRAELI intelligence agents stole clandestine IRANIAN documents this past winter that reveal what ISRAEL calls IRAN’s extensive past research on nuclear bombs. IRAN obviously denied all allegations by ISRAEL as laughably absurd. However, ISRAEL maintains that through a secret raid on a warehouse in TEHRAN, IRAN on January 31, 2018 by agents of the ISRAELI intelligence agency known as MOSSAD, bundles of documents were obtained that were described as 50,000 pages and 163 compact discs of memos, videos and plans for building weapons. It is important to note that IRAN has always been clear that creating indiscriminate weapons of mass destruction is against what IRAN stands for as a country. Furthermore, IRAN clearly stated that the notion that IRAN would abandon any kind of sensitive information in some random warehouse in TEHRAN is laughably absurd. Meanwhile, RUSSIA is concerned by a possible military escalation between IRAN and ISRAEL and is doing everything possible to prevent a conflict between them as per RUSSIAN Ambassador to IRAN, Levan Dzhagaryan. RUSSIA clarified that when conflicts do arise, RUSSIA is naturally concerned about the possibility of military confrontation between the IRANIAN and ISRAELI forces in SYRIA such that RUSSIA does everything possible to prevent it. However, as per RUSSIA, to prevent the escalation of the conflict, RUSSIA speaks with IRAN directly that RUSSIA describes as a friendly country and one of RUSSIA’s key partners which cooperates with RUSSIA when necessary including discussions regarding ending the seven-year-old civil war in SYRIA. RUSSIA further elaborated that IRAN’s presence in SYRIA is legitimate because IRAN was invited by the existing SYRIAN regime under the control of President Bashar Assad.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the KURDS as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis.
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures while TURKISH forces and their Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel allies continued to celebrate the capture of AFRIN in what from the KURDISH perspective appears to have been a massacre. In my opinion, the KURDISH YPG had little choice but to abandon AFRIN as the KURDISH YPG militants decided not to make a fight until death stand against TURKEY as around 10,000 KURDISH YPG militants quickly withdrew in order to be alive to fight against TURKEY elsewhere after more that 1,500 KURDISH YPG fighters had been killed in the AFRIN offensive by TURKEY whose sheer brute military strength cannot be denied.
Meanwhile, this week’s focus in TURKEY was on the results of the elections held on June 24, 2018 as it represented the most pivotal election in modern TURKISH history that will now result in the abolition of the prime minister’s role and thus President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems poised to fulfill his dreams by obtaining supreme political power while overturning almost a century of parliamentary rule. Although in my opinion the coalition formed by the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the Iyi Party (IP), the Islamist Saadet Party (SP) and the Democrat Party (DP) makes complete sense strategically, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan still won the presidential race with the opposition block not gaining any significant increases in parliament to pose a significant challenge to the governing AKP. In my opinion, the governing AKP was able to capitalize on positive TURKISH nationalist sentiments after the TURKISH military victory in AFRIN as the governing AKP had never before called early elections in the nearly 16 years the governing AKP has been in power. Therefore, the June 24 elections resulted in another dominant win for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with a commanding 52.6% of the more than 50 million votes, thus exceeding the 50% threshold to get elected in the first round. However, it would not have been possible for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to get re-elected if his governing AKP Party had not allied with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) such that the two parties will now be working closely together in a coalition to run the TURKISH country.
However, this week President Recep Tayyip Erdogan allowed TURKEY’s two-year state of emergency to come to an end but as trials of dissidents and journalists continue, human rights campaigners continue to pressure TURKEY to do more to reverse a suffocating crackdown on free speech. In my opinion, over the last two years, TURKEY has been radically transformed with emergency measures used to consolidate authoritarian powers, silence opposition voices and take away basic human rights and civil liberties. However, the lifting of the state of emergency alone will not reverse the impacts of the governing AKP crackdown measures but rather what is needed is systematic actions to restore respect for human civil rights and dignities followed by allowing the civil TURKISH society to once again flourish by eliminating the suffocating climate of fear that has crippled the entire TURKISH country. In my opinion, the use of emergency powers went beyond the Fethullah Gulen movement linked to the failed “Coup D’État” with over 25% of TURKEY’s judges having either been dismissed or detained resulting in an extensive reorganization of the TURKISH judiciary system that is outrageous from my point of view, as there is at a minimum a lack of independence in appearance, although judges have swore an oath of independence in fact. I believe that the emergency measures implemented by the governing AKP were excessive with thousands having been tried before the judicial systems, with many sentenced to life imprisonments, for their involvement with the failed “Coup D’État” including over 100 people having been extradited to TURKEY at the request of TURKEY’s secret service know as the MIT. In my opinion, the governing AKP crackdown has also increased tensions with western allies such as the E.U. and U.S especially after a court in TURKEY this week ruled for the continued detention of Andrew Brunson, an American pastor accused of having links to the Fethullah Gulen movement, in a move that could result in U.S. sanctions as the case has been described by many civil rights activists as a mockery of the TURKISH justice system. In my opinion, under the new system, Recep Tayyip Erdogan will now hold all state power such that there is no need for emergency law as he now has the flexibility to operate in the same manner as under a state of emergency if he so chooses.
In regards to TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s negotiations with the KURDISH YPG via the U.S, I was not surprised to see the U.S. and TURKEY reach an agreement on the KURDISH YPG’s withdrawal from MANBIJ although I was surprised to see the KURDISH forces agreeing to retreat to the east of the Euphrates River in order to satisfy TURKEY’s demands. Thus, in my opinion, the KURDISH YPG seem to have accepted the deal negotiated by the U.S. on the basis that the U.S. is in the best position to negotiate with TURKEY on behalf of the KURDISH YPG such that independent patrol activities by soldiers of Turkish Armed Forces and U.S. Armed Forces on the border between the EUPHRATES area and MANBIJ have become normal and recurring without any incidences. In my opinion, the friction experienced when KURDISH commanders warned TURKEY that if TURKISH forces entered the city center of MANBIJ, they would be fired upon by the KURDISH forces, is not surprising as the KURDS reserve the right to first retreat the area peacefully before the TURKISH forces settle in. In my opinion, SYRIA has not surprisingly condemned the presence of both the U.S. and TURKISH troops in SYRIA, calling the deployments aggressive and a violation of SYRIA’s territorial integrity such that as part of the upcoming U.S. and RUSSIA meetings by their respective presidents, it would be best for the SYRIAN federation to reach a deal for the U.S. forces to withdraw from SYRIA.
In regards to the leaders of three major players in SYRIA; RUSSIA, IRAN and TURKEY ending their last summit with a commitment to achieving a lasting ceasefire in SYRIA, even as the future role of U.S. forces in SYRIA remains in doubt, everyone seems to agree with the overall principal that a SYRIAN peace deal followed by humanitarian aid is critical albeit the realities that the respective parties cannot seem to be able to agree on the details in terms of timing and logistics. In regards to the unusual show of solidarity with IRAN whereby Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his IRANIAN counterpart Hassan Rouhani that he found the U.S. decision to withdraw from a 2015 nuclear deal with IRAN to be wrong, I am not surprised as TURKEY recognizes that the deal was the product of more than a decade of diplomacy whereby the final nuclear agreement signed in July of 2015 by the U.S., France, Britain, Germany, Russia, China and Iran represents a milestone that the U.S. has now unilaterally decided to withdraw from. Not surprisingly, among the few nations to welcome U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision were ISRAEL and SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN’s arch-nemesis in the Middle East.
However, ISRAEL and TURKEY relations appeared to be soured this week as TURKISH media accused a controversial religious cult leader, televangelist Adnan Oktar, who was arrested this week in TURKEY of having links to ISRAEL. In my opinion, as the case moves forward in the TURKISH court system, the allegations and media spotlight will likely grow and ISRAEL may increasingly become a scapegoat. In my opinion, the TURKISH media focus that Adnan Oktar was deemed to be insulting the Sultan as an agent of ISRAEL while Adnan Oktar posed with ISRAELI Zionist politicians and clerics who were guests on his TV channels and received his accolades is camouflaging the real reasons for TURKEY looking to take out Adnan Oktar which is the FETO. As a friendly reminder, FETO is the name given to the organization run by Fethullah Gulen, the cleric who was accused by TURKEY of being behind the 2016 failed “Coup D’État” amongst other crimes against TURKEY. Therefore, the TURKISH media have been looking for connections between what they call the FETO terrorist organization and ISRAEL via the Adnan Oktar cult. TURKISH media thus desperately wants to portray a giant masquerade of mutual understanding between the FETO Traitors with the Adnan Oktar Crusaders and the ISRAELI Zionists. In my opinion, there is no concrete evidence behind the allegations that that Adnan Oktar leaked information to the ISRAELIS such that all spying accusations against Adnan Oktar are based on hearsay via gossip and rumours which will likely lead to more gossip, rumours and conspiracy theories. In my opinion, the social media attacks on ISRAELI Zionists and conspiracy theories are nothing new in TURKEY but this is the first formal attempt by TURKISH media outlets to link FETO Traitors with the Adnan Oktar Crusaders and the ISRAELI Zionists that has the potential to further damage relations between ISRAEL and TURKEY.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
Meanwhile, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. In my opinion, this week’s KURDISH politicians continuing with their total withdrawal from the IRAQI political arena is not surprising after the IRAQI parliament approved the 2018 budget with a reduced share for the KURDISH autonomous region from 17% of the IRAQI budget as had been the case since the new IRAQI government was formed after the U.S. led invasion to the proportion of the KURDISH population that the IRAQI government estimates to be at 12.6%. In my opinion, the 17% demand by the KURDISH government is reasonable as at least 17% of IRAQI soil is covered with KURDISH blood such that the KURDS earned their 17% share through blood, sweat and tears as the KURDISH forces held back ISIS forces from conquering IRAQ in its entirety while IRAQI forces were scrambling and nowhere to be seen.
Meanwhile, in regards to the analysis of IRAQI election results, it is certain that the IRAQI political structure remains complicated with the biggest number of parliamentary seats of 54 won by the coalition headed by the populist SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, a coalition of pro-IRANIAN Shiite parties finishing second with 47 seats while the block led by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, the U.S. favourite, finishing closely with 42 seats. In my opinion, either a coalition under Moqtada al-Sadr will emerge or a pro-IRANIAN coalition under the Fatah Alliance will emerge such that either way, it seems that the U.S. presence in IRAQ will likely diminish over time. In my opinion, many Americans still remember Moqtada al-Sadr from the post-invasion period of IRAQI history when he commanded a militia that attacked U.S. forces and committed atrocities against the SUNNI population. Ironically, Moqtada al-Sadr never reconciled with the U.S. while contemporaneously having a bitter falling out with IRAN. However, in my opinion, Moqtada al-Sadr seems to now be repositioning IRAQ for closer relations with SAUDI ARABIA that once wrote-off IRAQ as a victory for IRAN while now once again, the SAUDI Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, seems to be courting IRAQI’s SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. In my opinion, last weeks ordering by IRAQ’s parliament of a full recount of IRAQ’s recent parliamentary election that resulted in a shock victory for SHIA leader Muqtada al-Sadr is not surprising as nobody ever expected him to win.
However, I was glad to see IRAQ’s Supreme Court formally approve a full manual recount of all 11 million votes in an attempt to salvage the results of a tainted election that could obviously take weeks to complete and thus delay the formation of a new IRAQI government contemporaneously. However, I was surprised to see the winner of the tainted elections, Muqtada al-Sadr, focusing his attention this week on forming an IRAQI coalition government, in spite of dramatic differences, with Hadi al-Amiri, head of the most powerful IRAN-backed SHIA militia and outgoing president Haidar al-Abadi, the U.S. choice to head the new IRAQI government. In my opinion, although Muqtada al-Sadr has been touted as the winner of the IRAQI elections, his party took only 54 seats, while Hadi al-Amiri won 47 and Haidar al-Abadi 42 such that none made a decisive showing that shows the degree to which the political landscape is fractured in post-war IRAQ such that a coalition of the three main parties might actually make sense strategically. That is, the alliance would give the three blocks a combined 143 seats in the assembly, short of a 165-seat majority while the balance of power could be provided by the Kurdish Democratic Party, with 25 seats, or two or more of four other parties given that the party headed by former prime minister Nuri al-Maliki, with 25 seats, refuses to join the coalition.
In regards to this weeks uncertainty looming over IRAQ as the election results still hang in the backdrop without any conclusive outcome other that the likelihood of a coalition government amongst the three major political players as discussed above, IRAQ now finds itself once again with a weak government at the moment when IRAQ needed to be as strong as possible to cope with the destabilising impact of the ISRAELI and IRAN potential confrontation. In my opinion, the biggest problem right now in IRAQ is public confidence, as most IRAQIS fear that a new government that will ultimately be created will not be much better or different from the old IRAQI government in the verge of assuming a secondary role. In addition, I believe that protests that began this week in IRAQ and that are continuing amid widespread anger over unsatisfactory public service provisions by the IRAQI government may very well threaten to delay the formation of a new IRAQI government as there have already been break-ins to oil facilities and political offices. In my opinion, at least eight demonstrators have been killed so far amid an IRAQI government crackdown, with scores of protesters and security forces injured as IRAQI authorities have carried out arrests, deployed water cannons and shut down the Intranet in several parts of IRAQ in desperate attempts to control the mounting tensions. I believe that although IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, who only came in third place in the last national elections of May’ 2018, promised jobs and public funds for BASRA in response to the protests, he failed to calm the anger among an IRAQI populace fed up with the corruption and a disconnected political elite after a brutal 15 years of war-torn democracy. In my opinion, southern IRAQ has lived in relative stability compared to IRAQ’s northwest region which was under brutal ISIS control for more than four years until ISIS was largely defeated by IRAQI forces at the end of 2017 such that southern IRAQI citizens seem to have a high expectation from their representatives.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, the war in SYRIA entered into a dangerous phase when EASTERN GHOUTA was under attack by SYRIAN Regime forces on so-called SYRIAN rebel terrorists is a human tragedy that unfolded before everybodies eyes such that in my opinion the international community cannot let things keep going in this horrendous fashion. As a friendly reminder, in some of the worst bombardment campaigns of the war in SYRIA, over one thousand people have been killed and over five thousand have been injured in EASTERN GHOUTA, a Free Syrian Army (FSA) held enclave that is home to about 400,000 people that borders the SYRIAN capital of Damascus. In my opinion, President Bashar al-Assad wants to recapture EASTERN GHOUTA because it is so close to DAMASCUS, the capital of SYRIA, that it is possible for rebels to fire mortars into the heart of the capital. In my opinion, the alleged toxic bombing several weeks ago, using chemical weapons, of rebel-held DOUMA, in the EASTERN GHOUTA region killing dozens of people, including children, was deplorable to say the least. Therefore, U.S. President Donald Trump was forced to order the U.S. military, in conjunction with France and the United Kingdom, to launch strikes on SYRIA in retaliation for the suspected chemical weapons attack by the SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad.
In regards to this week’s Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN ally focusing their attention on the southern province of DERAA where they have intensified their bombing campaign after a ceasefire deal between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels and the Russians broke down, I am not surprised to see the intensification of air raids as SYRIAN troops have vowed to advance steadily to recapture lost territory until such time as a ceasefire agreement is negotiated. In my opinion, it is deplorable to see the fighting and air raids driving more than a quarter of a million people in southwest SYRIA from their homes seeking shelter along the borders with JORDAN and ISRAEL. However, in my opinion, RUSSIA refusing that the SAA and IRAN-backed fighters withdraw from captured areas in order to let displaced people evacuate to rebel-held territory in other parts of SYRIA, as was the case in EASTERN GHOUTA and ALEPPO, is primarily due to the government regime now having a dominant hold on SYRIA enabling it to flex its muscles in negotiations. Thus, I was not surprised when SAA government forces retook a town that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war. Thus, in my opinion, this week’s focus of the SAA campaign that intensified on NAWA, the largest urban centre still held by rebels in DERAA, is not surprising as at least 100,000 people still live in the largest urban center left in rebel hands in DERAA province that the RUSSIAN-backed offensive still desires to liberate from FSA control. However, in my opinion, RUSSIA will not cease with its bombardments of DERAA until a ceasefire arrangement is reached with the FSA. Thus, the artillery and aerial bombardments that came only hours after thousands of displaced people, who had taken shelter along the ISRAELI border returned to the city, illustrates the precarious situation in NAWA as obviously the civilians returned under the presumption that the rebels had reached a surrender deal with the RUSSIAN military that would spare the city bombardment, only to realize how quickly the actual situation changes on the ground. In my opinion, it is deplorable that a hospital in NAWA was destroyed as a result of the latest bombardment with high casualties of dozens of people killed and injured.
Meanwhile, in regards to this weeks escalation of tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN after ISRAEL claimed that ISRAELI intelligence agents stole clandestine IRANIAN documents this past winter that reveal what ISRAEL calls IRAN’s extensive past research on nuclear bombs, there was nothing in ISRAEL’s claim that suggested the IRANIANS were still engaged in such activity, which U.S. intelligence reports have stated ended in 2003. However, the documents suggested not only that IRAN had been deceitful but also that IRAN’s work in weaponizing nuclear power had been far more sophisticated and organized than initially suspected. Given that the authenticity of the documents that are at least 15 years old have not been independently confirmed, IRAN continues to deny accusations by ISRAEL that IRANIAN nuclear work was meant for military purposes, a denial that IRAN’s United Nations mission has reiterated this week in response to ISRAEL’s latest claim. In my opinion, it almost appears like ISRAEL is trying to see what outlandish claims they can make that the world will believe but more importantly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of ISRAEL first announced the results of the seizure in April of 2018 after he had given U.S. President Donald Trump a private briefing. However, just days later, U.S. President Donald Trump made good on his longstanding vow to renounce the 2015 nuclear agreement with IRAN that was negotiated by the OBAMA administration and the governments of five other major powers, including major European allies of the U.S. Therefore, the validity of the claims is irrelevant as they seem to have served their purpose which is U.S. President Donald Trump renounce the 2015 nuclear agreement with IRAN.
In my opinion, the current situation in the Middle East depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War that would likely be triggered by a direct ISRAEL and IRAN conflict, such that all leaders across the globe must avoid the temptation to look away but rather should increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, minimize civilian casualties, prevent the further use of chemical weapons and alleviate the humanitarian crisis from a civil war spiralling out of control with no end in sight, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the Middle East. That being said, the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby ISRAEL claims that ISRAELI intelligence agents stole clandestine IRANIAN documents this past winter that reveal what ISRAEL calls IRAN’s extensive past research on nuclear bombs that IRAN categorically denies as laughably absurd, albeit the validity of the claims being irrelevant as they seem to have served their purpose which is U.S. President Donald Trump renouncing the 2015 nuclear agreement with IRAN, just days after receiving a private briefing back in April that was now formally presented to the United Nations, that shows that IRAN is not a country that you can push around as IRAN is pursuing its own independent foreign policy such that in order to obtain actions from the IRANIANS, persuasion is critical, such that ISRAELI pressure tactics tend to have the opposite effect of resistance from that intended of compliance, such that it is best to leave it up to the RUSSIANS to persuade the IRANIANS that ISRAEL’s border with SYRIA should be preserved in accordance with the 1974 Separation of Forces Agreement, that will bring peace to the GOLAN HEIGHTS and bring a more peaceful relationship between SYRIA and ISRAEL, while also provide security for the State of ISRAEL, who are traumatized at the thought of IRANIAN forces, including HEZBOLLAH, continuing to entrench themselves in SYRIA despite repeated ISRAELI Air Force strikes against IRANIAN bases in SYRIA.
In my opinion, as was seen recently with ISIS able to mount limited but nonetheless painful blows to various factions in SYRIA with shock and awe attacks in DEIR EZZOR, AL BUKAMAL and AL MAYADEEN, it is important to note that although ISIS’s caliphate no longer exists and the ISIS flag does not fly over territory, ISIS has not disappeared but rather ISIS has reverted to old terrorist tactics used before 2014. That is, attacks against security forces and civilians, often involving fake checkpoints, have centered on ISIS’s former strongholds of rugged rural areas known as ISIS strongholds for being hospitable for ISIS to hide out because of the rough terrain so that ISIS has been able to dig tunnels and store weapons, ammunition and bomb-making materials. Therefore, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, although ISIS was literally disappearing from the face of the map in SYRIA, new showdowns between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) only serves to fuel the re-emergence of ISIS as a dangerous player in SYRIA. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS such that this war could very well continue for years to come if RUSSIA is not given mediator powers to negotiate a deal between all Parties. In my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and utter madness.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 308” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while focusing on the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby ISRAEL claims that ISRAELI intelligence agents stole clandestine IRANIAN documents this past winter, that reveal what ISRAEL calls IRAN’s extensive past research on nuclear bombs, that IRAN categorically denies as laughably absurd, albeit the validity of the claims being irrelevant as they seem to have served their purpose which is U.S. President Donald Trump renouncing the 2015 nuclear agreement with IRAN, just days after receiving a private briefing back in April, that was only now formally presented to the United Nations, that shows that IRAN is not a country that you can push around such that in order to obtain actions from the IRANIANS, persuasion is critical, such that ISRAELI pressure tactics tend to have the opposite effect of resistance from that intended of compliance, such that it is best to leave it up to the RUSSIANS to persuade the IRANIANS that ISRAEL’s border with SYRIA should be preserved in accordance with the 1974 Separation of Forces Agreement, that will bring peace to the GOLAN HEIGHTS, a more peaceful relationship between SYRIA & ISRAEL and provide security for the State of ISRAEL, that is traumatized at the thought of IRANIAN forces, including HEZBOLLAH, continuing to entrench themselves in SYRIA despite repeated ISRAELI Air Force strikes against IRANIAN bases in SYRIA.
Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News: July 22, 2018
