In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 307” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while focusing on the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby with SYRIAN forces clearing up the last Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel pockets in the south of SYRIA, the U.S. seems to have little leverage to utilize in upcoming negotiations with RUSSIA such that the U.S. will most probably have to close its U.S. base at AL-TANF on the JORDANIAN border, where many of the U.S. troops in SYRIA are currently stationed and estimated at 2,000, given that U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly spoken about his goal to extract U.S. forces from SYRIA that will effectively leave RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin as kingmaker in SYRIA, as ISRAELI Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu literally pleaded with the RUSSIAN leader to help stabilise the situation on the SYRIAN border, as IRAN along with HEZBOLLAH militias, with thousands of fighters who were instrumental in preserving the ASSAD regime in power, have been building up an arsenal of weapons that ISRAEL now fears could be used against it.
TURKEY News
As a friendly reminder, TURKEY has been on the defense ever since an internal military “Coup D’État” failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP focused their attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say that the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants.
During the week ending on Sunday, July 15, 2018, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures although TURKEY’s crushing of the free press, destruction of the freedom of speech and restrictions to the right to peaceful demonstrations seems to be punishing the TURKISH economy as high inflation in TURKEY and a surge in foreign borrowing by TURKISH banks could plunge TURKEY into an economic crisis during 2018. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKISH forces and their Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel allies continued to celebrate the capture of AFRIN as the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) did not intervene so that TURKEY was in essence given the informal approval to crush the SYRIAN KURDISH region. However, at least 150,000 people have been displaced in AFRIN with estimates of the total number of civilian deaths at over 200 since TURKEY began its aggression in January of 2018 of the KURDISH region on the border between SYRIA and TURKEY under TURKEY’s Operation Olive Branch.
Meanwhile this week, the focus in TURKEY was on the results of the elections held on June 24, 2018 as this was the most pivotal election in modern TURKISH history that will now result in the abolition of the prime minister’s role and thus President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems well positioned to fulfill his dreams of obtaining supreme political power while overturning almost a century of parliamentary rule. Thus, TURKEY’s main opposition parties that created a broad electoral alliance before the general elections could not create a significant enough challenge to the dominance of the governing AKP party under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Although President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won the presidential race, the opposition block in parliament does not look like it will impose a significant challenge to the governing AKP. That is, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s closest rival consisting of Muharrem İnce of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) who turned out to be a charismatic speaker who could attract people to his rallies only ended up being the choice of his grassroots supporters. Therefore, Muharrem İnce only managed to increase the main opposition CHP vote from the stable 25% to 30.6% percent but that was not enough as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was able to win more than half of the votes in the first round.
It is important to note that, this week, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was shocked at the absence of major Western countries that did not attend his inauguration ceremony that could impact the future of TURKEY’s relations with the EU and the U.S. The absence of EU and U.S. high-ranking officials at Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s inauguration ceremony seems to be connected with tensions at all time highs between TURKEY and Western countries. It is important to note that out of the 22 heads of foreign states that attended the ceremony that took place on July 9, there was only one president of a EU member country. That is, BULGARIA’s leader, Rumen Radev was among the Western guests along with the following highest ranking officials consisting of the EU Commissioner, Dimitris Avramopoulos and HUNGARIAN Prime Minister, Viktor Orban. Furthermore, there were only a few important political individuals who are currently not active in international politics consisting of former ITALIAN Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi and GERMAN Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. It is important to note that the EU boycott follows TURKEY closing the Ministry of EU Affairs, a TURKISH government body responsible for the accession process between TURKEY and the EU. Although the Ministry of EU Affairs has not made any significant progress for the last seven years, its presence was a symbol of Turkey’s desire to join the EU. As a friendly reminder, the TURKISH ascension into the EU has been a long drawn out process with TURKEY applying to join the EU on April 14, 1987 but only being announced as an official candidate for EU membership in December 1999 whereas Turkey and the EU only commenced negotiations for full membership in 2005. However, the refugee deal signed between TURKEY and the EU in 2016 appeared to accelerate the process but the failed “Coup D’État” in July 2016 and subsequent mass TURKISH government arrests of opposition leaders prompted the EU to suspend the accession talks until the process completely stalled in 2017.
In addition, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated that TURKEY would not stop until TURKEY has made safe all areas currently controlled by the KURDISH YPG starting with MANBIJ. However, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also stressed that TURKEY’s fight against the KURDISH YPG would not distract from efforts to eliminate the remnants of ISIS in SYRIA. Nonetheless, U.S. President Donald Trump announced his intent to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria as soon as the fight against ISIS is complete while stating that the U.S. will consult with groups of U.S. allies and coordinate with others in SYRIA in order to decide the U.S. next steps after the completion of the U.S. mission of defeat of ISIS in SYRIA while TURKEY continues to remain one of the allies that should be involved in these U.S. consultations. While the U.S. continues to describe its decision to work with the KURDISH YPG as a tactical, short-term approach to the defeat of ISIS, the U.S. seems to still desire to maintain relations with its NATO ally TURKEY on the basis that a Syria that is stabilized along terms dictated by IRAN goes against U.S. interests in the region. Meanwhile, the U.S. and TURKEY remain committed to the MANBIJ roadmap whereby the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) are scheduled to withdraw from MANBIJ shortly such that the deal with the U.S. on the MANBIJ issue seems to be proceeding without any problems except that TURKISH troops are continuing with their patrols of the MANBIJ outskirts but have yet to entered the town despite an agreement between TURKEY and the U.S. on the withdrawal of KURDISH units in the area.
Meanwhile, the leaders of three major players in SYRIA, RUSSIA, IRAN and TURKEY ended their last summit with a commitment to achieving a lasting ceasefire in SYRIA, even as the future role of U.S. forces in SYRIA remains in doubt. The meeting in the TURKISH capital of ANKARA brought together two of SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad’s strongest supporters, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of TURKEY, as the primary backer of the opposition Free Syrian Army (FSA). Notably absent from the talks were representatives from SYRIA itself and from the U.S., another important player in the SYRIAN conflict. In an unusual show of solidarity with IRAN, Turkish President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan told his IRANIAN counterpart Hassan Rouhani that he found the U.S. decision to withdraw from a 2015 nuclear deal with IRAN to be wrong. In a telephone call, TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan told IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani that TURKEY wanted the deal to be maintained, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would pull out from the deal. Meanwhile, this week, ISRAEL and TURKEY relations appeared to be soured as TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated his resolve to advance the interests of TURKEY with the MUSLIM world including IRAN and the PLESTINIANS. Therefore, ISRAEL and TURKEY once again appear to be on a collision course that is not GAZA or the peace process with the PALESTINIANS but rather is centered on the growing influence of TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the Temple Mount in ISRAEL as TURKEY maintains significant influence via a series of non-profit associations that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan funds, headed by the Turkish Cooperation and Development Agency (TIKA). It is important to note that TURKISH activity on the Temple Mount worries the ISRAELI police but also the JORDANIANS, the PALESTINIANS, the EGYPTIANS and even the MOROCCANS who view their king, Mohammed VI, as the keeper of the holy places while it appears that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is trying to control the Temple Mount and give TURKEY the official title of the protector of the Temple Mount in the name of all of ISLAM from all the other contenders to the MUSLIM throne. Obviously, ISRAEL is afraid of TURKEY obtaining full control of the Temple Mount as TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s self-confidence has reached an all-time high such that he now views himself as a TURKISH Sultan ready to renew the OTTOMAN Empire by tightening his control on the MUSLIM holy sights in Jerusalem.
IRAQ News
As a friendly reminder, the KURDS still consider the September 25 referendum victory as the culmination of decades of struggle for a KURDISH state of their own although the IRAQI government has clearly stated that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. However, after the votes were tallied and the referendum passed with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, Iraq’s top SHIITE cleric out right rejected the outcome of KURDISTAN’s independence vote despite the overwhelming 92% voting in favour of separating from IRAQ. Subsequently, IRAQI forces along with IRANIAN trained paramilitaries deployed heavy weaponry build up in KIRKUK, the jewel of the proposed future KURDISTAN state enabling IRAQI forces to take control of all major areas of KIRKUK province from KURDISH YPG fighters. In particular, IRAQI forces took ALTON KUPRI, the oil-rich province of KURDISTAN as rocket; artillery and heavy machine-gun fire erupted in the region.
Subsequently, IRAQI Kurdish authorities stated that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession. However, the KURDS also stated that this decision must become a basis for starting an inclusive national dialogue between KURDISTAN and IRAQ to resolve all disputes through implementation of all constitutional articles and in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution because all elements of the IRAQI Constitution must be respected in order to secure the unity of IRAQ. Meanwhile, this week, KURDISH politicians continued to boycott IRAQI parliament with relentless protests at the reduction of KURDISTAN’s share from 17% to nearly 12% of the IRAQI parliament approved 2018 budget. Further, highlighting the division was IRAQ accusing KURDISTAN of corruption in handling oil exports from fields under the KURDISTAN region’s control while IRAQ also went so far as to suggest that revenues could be sufficient to satisfy KURDISTAN expenses otherwise which the KURDISTAN government obviously refuted.
Meanwhile this week, the only thing that appears certain after the May 12, 2018 election is that the voters have rejected both IRAN and the U.S. consisting of the two outside powers that have dominated IRAQI internal affairs since 2003 such that the election of a coalition headed by the populist SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr is a sign that a growing number of IRAQIS are eager to reassert their identity and independence. Thus, all the IRAQI election did was establish a framework for the real political negotiations that are currently ongoing and will likely take months to complete. However, there are two obvious potential outcomes from IRAQI political party negotiations with substantial regional and international consequences. That is, the first potential outcome is a coalition headed by Moqtada al-Sadr that probably means a diminishing U.S. presence in IRAQ combined with an IRAQI government that is independent of IRAN’s influence while reintegrating an independent and sovereign IRAQ into the Arab world. Conversely, the second potential outcome is a coalition headed by the pro-IRANIAN Fatah Alliance representing the SHIITE militias along with parties loyal to former Prime Ministers Haider al-Abadi and Nouri al-Maliki as well as smaller groups such as the Kurdistan Coalition that would result in an overtly pro-IRANIAN government. Nonetheless, IRAQ’s parliament ordered a full recount of IRAQ’s recent parliamentary election that resulted in a shock victory for SHIA leader Muqtada al-Sadr. Furthermore, last week, in spite of dramatic differences, the three parties that gained the most votes in IRAQ’s May 12, 2018 parliamentary elections agreed to work together to form a new IRAQI government. Ironically, the driving force behind this odd alliance is SHIA cleric Muqtada al-Sadr who seems to be ready, willing and able to work with Hadi al-Amiri, head of the most powerful IRAN-backed SHIA militia and outgoing president Haidar al-Abadi, the U.S. choice to head the new IRAQI government.
Meanwhile this week, uncertainty appeared to be looming over IRAQ as the election results still hang in the backdrop without any conclusive outcome other that the likelihood of a coalition government amongst the three major political players as discussed above. Thus, although security in IRAQ is better than at any other time since the U.S. invasion of 2003, IRAQIS now tend to focus less of their attention on the day-to-day business of staying alive and more on their corrupt and dysfunctional government. Furthermore, IRAQIS now seem to find themselves in a conundrum whereby they ask themselves where have the hundreds of billions of oil revenue dollars been spent as many IRAQIS still lack water, electricity, jobs and houses. It is important to note that outgoing President Haidar al-Abadi is still in office although political experts in IRAQ estimate that his chances of staying on as prime minister are only at about 30% although they add that he has no obvious successor at this stage. Thus, President Haidar al-Abadi seems to be happy to stay where he is for the moment while political parties fight over who gets what top job and control over what ministries as everything is being delayed while votes are still being recounted in most of IRAQ following widespread allegations of ballot rigging. Of particular note, the U.S. and IRAN have been rivals in IRAQ for decades but the conflict between the two seems to be heating up, thanks to the simmering fire between ISRAEL and IRAN, as there is no secret that the U.S. supports ISRAEL that only seems to exacerbate the existing divisions within IRAQ. It is important to note that the U.S. is now quite persistently denouncing IRAQI political figures seen as having close ties to IRAN as terrorists while also targeting banks doing business with IRAN which is bad news for IRAQ because the U.S. and IRAN have many pressure points and proxies within IRAQ and they will not be restrained in using them.
SYRIA News
As a friendly reminder, the current SYRIAN government under the control of President Bashar al-Assad stated that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA, which was liberated from ISIS by the U.S. backed and KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In particular, the existing SYRIAN regime stated that both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime. Meanwhile, fighting has continued sporadically in EASTERN GHOUTA as RUSSIA formally stated that the massive RUSSIAN backed SYRIAN military offensive is almost over with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels now cornered in just a single town after being forced to abandon the greater part of the EASTERN GHOUTA region. Meanwhile several weeks ago, dozens of people were killed, including children, during the alleged toxic bombing, using chemical weapons, of rebel-held DOUMA, in the EASTERN GHOUTA region. Not surprisingly, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the U.S. military, in conjunction with France and the United Kingdom, to launch strikes on SYRIA in retaliation for the suspected chemical weapons attack by the SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad. However, U.S., British and French missile strikes had a limited impact on SYRIAN president Bashar al-Assad’s ability to carry out chemical weapons attacks in the future even though U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted Mission Accomplished after the attacks claiming that they had successfully struck the heart of SYRIA’s chemical weapons program.
However, this week the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN ally focused their attention on the southern province of DERAA where they have intensified their bombing campaign after a ceasefire deal between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels and the Russians broke down. Therefore, the fighting has intensified following the failure to reach a ceasefire agreement as SYRIAN government and RUSSIAN planes have been targeting a number of Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel held towns in the province after the failed ceasefire deal. Meanwhile, SAA government forces stated that they have retaken a town that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war that engulfed SYRIA for over seven years now as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war. It is important to note that under an agreement reached with Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels, the SYRIAN government stated that the rebels would hand over their heavy and medium weapons while those who agree to the accord will be allowed to remain in the region while those who refuse reconciliation will be evacuated. As a friendly reminder, DERAA represents the symbol of the resistance as the war began in this town back in March of 2011 when 15 teenage boys were arrested because of graffiti spray-painted on a high school walls with the slogan of “It’s Your Turn Now Doctor To Fall” referring to SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad.
Meanwhile, the tensions between IRAN and ISRAEL seem to have continued to escalate again after ISRAELI airstrikes targeted IRANIAN military infrastructure inside SYRIA several weeks ago. Obviously, IRAN condemned the wave of ISRAELI air strikes in SYRIA and clearly stated that these attacks by ISRAEL represent a blatant violation of SYRIA’s sovereignty such that IRAN has backed SYRIA’s right to defend itself against ISRAEL. It is important to note that the strikes were the heaviest strikes carried out by ISRAEL on SYRIA in decades that came right after twenty rockets were fired at ISRAELI military positions in the occupied Golan Heights of SYRIA. It is no secret that the strikes hurt IRAN that has deployed hundreds of troops inside SYRIA as military advisers to the SYRIAN governments Syrian Arab Army (SAA) while thousands of IRANIAN militia armed, trained and financed by IRAN have also been battling SYRIAN rebel forces alongside the SAA. ISRAEL stated that ISRAELI fighter jets struck almost IRAN’s entire military infrastructure inside Syria consisting of some 70 targets in ISRAELS biggest assault since SYRIA’s civil war commenced in 2011.
Subsequently, this week, the tone escalated between ISRAEL and IRAN, as ISRAEL fired missiles into SYRIA in response to a drone trespassing into the ISRAELI controlled Golan Heights raising tensions on the shared border as U.S. President Donald Trump and RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin are set to meet to discuss the fate of SYRIAN and the broader ISRAELI and IRANIAN conflict. It is important to note that speculation over a potential big deal between the U.S. and Russia continue to mount that would limit IRAN’s influence in SYRIA in return for a full U.S. withdrawal from SYRIA. It is important to note that both ISRAEL and the U.S. are pushing for RUSSIA to use their significant influence over SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad to push IRANIAN troops and its allies HEZBOLLAH out from Syria. Meanwhile, a top IRANIAN official, Ali Akbar Velayati, who is a senior adviser to IRAN’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stated that IRAN would only leave SYRIA if SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad asks them to do so. Thus, IRAN has made it clear that IRAN and RUSSIA’s presence in SYRIA will continue to protect the SYRIAN country against terrorist groups, U.S. and ISRAELI aggression but will only leave at the request of the SYRIAN governments and not because of ISRAELI and U.S. pressure to leave. Therefore, it seems that the only hope for some sort of solution at this stage is in the hands of the RUSSIANS who speak to everyone but who seem to tell one story to the IRANIANS and a different story to the ISRAELIS.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the KURDS as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis.
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures while TURKISH forces and their Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel allies continued to celebrate the capture of AFRIN in what from the KURDISH perspective appears to have been a massacre. In my opinion, the KURDISH YPG had little choice but to abandon AFRIN as the KURDISH YPG militants decided not to make a fight until death stand against TURKEY as around 10,000 KURDISH YPG militants quickly withdrew in order to be alive to fight against TURKEY elsewhere after more that 1,500 KURDISH YPG fighters had been killed in the AFRIN offensive by TURKEY whose sheer brute military strength cannot be denied.
Meanwhile, this week’s focus in TURKEY was on the results of the elections held on June 24, 2018 as it represented the most pivotal election in modern TURKISH history that will now result in the abolition of the prime minister’s role and thus President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems poised to fulfill his dreams by obtaining supreme political power while overturning almost a century of parliamentary rule. Although in my opinion the coalition formed by the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the Iyi Party (IP), the Islamist Saadet Party (SP) and the Democrat Party (DP) makes complete sense strategically, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan still won the presidential race with the opposition block not gaining any significant increases in parliament to pose a significant challenge to the governing AKP. In my opinion, the governing AKP was able to capitalize on positive TURKISH nationalist sentiments after the TURKISH military victory in AFRIN as the governing AKP had never before called early elections in the nearly 16 years the governing AKP has been in power. Therefore, the June 24 elections resulted in another dominant win for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with a commanding 52.6% of the more than 50 million votes, thus exceeding the 50% threshold to get elected in the first round. However, it would not have been possible for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to get re-elected if his governing AKP Party had not allied with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) such that the two parties will now be working closely together in a coalition to run the TURKISH country.
However, this week President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was shocked at the absence of major Western countries that did not attend his inauguration ceremony that could impact the future of TURKEY’s relations with the EU and the U.S. In my opinion, the absence of EU and U.S. high-ranking officials at Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s inauguration ceremony does seem to be connected with tensions at all time highs between TURKEY and Western countries. However, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has never declared an official end to relations with the West so in my opinion, cooperation between TURKEY and the West will continue in the future. In addition, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent visits to Azerbaijan and the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus along with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan taking part in the NATO summit seems to indicate that TURKEY will not make major shifts in its foreign policies for the time being. In regards to only 1 out of 22 heads of foreign states attending the ceremony that took place on July 9, it is my opinion that everybody seems to have adopted a wait and see approach towards TURKEY. In my opinion, although there are serious problems and tensions in relations between TURKEY and the West, it is obvious that the West needs to maintain its links with TURKEY politically, economically and socially in order to ensure order in the Middle East. Furthermore, I believe that Western leaders ignored President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s inauguration in order to convey the message that they do not support his current authoritarian policies. In my opinion, the decision of EU leaders to boycott the inauguration ceremonies is likely rooted from the decision of the TURKISH authorities to close the Ministry of EU Affairs as an independent institution which I believe was interpreted by the EU as a message from TURKEY that membership in the EU is no longer one of the TURKEY’s priorities. In addition, I believe that economic issues will have an important impact on TURKEY’s foreign policy because tensions between TURKEY and the West could create additional risk factors for the TURKISH economy in the sense that TURKEY cannot maintain its current standard of living without engaging in active trade with EU member countries.
In regards to TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s negotiations with the KURDISH YPG via the U.S, I was not surprised to see the U.S. and TURKEY reach an agreement on the KURDISH YPG’s withdrawal from MANBIJ although I was surprised to see the KURDISH forces agreeing to retreat to the east of the Euphrates River in order to satisfy TURKEY’s demands. Thus, in my opinion, the KURDISH YPG seem to have accepted the deal negotiated by the U.S. on the basis that the U.S. is in the best position to negotiate with TURKEY on behalf of the KURDISH YPG such that independent patrol activities by soldiers of Turkish Armed Forces and U.S. Armed Forces on the border between the EUPHRATES area and MANBIJ have become normal and recurring without any incidences. In my opinion, the friction experienced when KURDISH commanders warned TURKEY that if TURKISH forces entered the city center of MANBIJ, they would be fired upon by the KURDISH forces, is not surprising as the KURDS reserve the right to first retreat the area peacefully before the TURKISH forces settle in. In my opinion, SYRIA has not surprisingly condemned the presence of both the U.S. and TURKISH troops in SYRIA, calling the deployments aggressive and a violation of SYRIA’s territorial integrity such that as part of the upcoming U.S. and RUSSIA meetings by their respective presidents, it would be best for the SYRIAN federation to reach a deal for the U.S. forces to withdraw from SYRIA.
In regards to the leaders of three major players in SYRIA; RUSSIA, IRAN and TURKEY ending their last summit with a commitment to achieving a lasting ceasefire in SYRIA, even as the future role of U.S. forces in SYRIA remains in doubt, everyone seems to agree with the overall principal that a SYRIAN peace deal followed by humanitarian aid is critical albeit the realities that the respective parties cannot seem to be able to agree on the details in terms of timing and logistics. In regards to the unusual show of solidarity with IRAN whereby Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his IRANIAN counterpart Hassan Rouhani that he found the U.S. decision to withdraw from a 2015 nuclear deal with IRAN to be wrong, I am not surprised as TURKEY recognizes that the deal was the product of more than a decade of diplomacy whereby the final nuclear agreement signed in July of 2015 by the U.S., France, Britain, Germany, Russia, China and Iran represents a milestone that the U.S. has now unilaterally decided to withdraw from. Not surprisingly, among the few nations to welcome U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision were ISRAEL and SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN’s arch-nemesis in the Middle East.
However, ISRAEL and TURKEY relations appeared to be soured this week as TURKISH activity on the Temple Mount worries the ISRAELI police but also the JORDANIANS, the PALESTINIANS, the EGYPTIANS and even the MOROCCANS who view their king, Mohammed VI, as the keeper of the holy places while it appears that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is trying to control the Temple Mount and give TURKEY the official title of the protector of the Temple Mount in the name of all of ISLAM from all the other contenders to the MUSLIM throne. In my opinion, the Turkish Cooperation and Development Agency (TIKA) that is looking to take control of the Temple Mount is obviously a security concern for ISRAEL as TIKA seems to maintain connections with the radical northern wing of ISRAEL’s Islamic Movement as well as with HAMAS while also having links to the IHH TURKISH organization that financed the Marmara PALESTINIAN flotilla and was thus labeled by ISRAEL as a terrorist organization. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is trying to return the OTTOMAN grandeur to the Temple Mount to intensify tensions between the Jews and the Muslims in the holy places and become the top ISLAMIC patriarch to protect the mosques. In my opinion, TURKEY would not be investing millions of dollars in the Temple Mount if it did not have the ultimate goal of a takeover of this sacred shrine while such that ISRAEL will not have much choice but to halt the TURKISH expansionist process before it causes real damage as ISRAEL expends a lot of time and energy in lowering tensions on the Temple Mount as it represents the jewel of the MUSLIM nation such that a blow-up on the Temple Mount could quickly spiral into a blow-up of the entire Middle East. In my opinion, the fact that the Temple Mount is full of TURKISH flags and also TURKISH tourists that are not model law abiding tourists but rather ISLAMIC activists who flow to the Temple Mount to harass Jewish visitors, is a sure sign that TURKEY is looking to take over full control which seems strange in light of the fact that the Temple Mount is an ISLAMIC shrine for one and all that should not be confiscated by the dominant OTTOMAN hands.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
Meanwhile, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. In my opinion, this week’s KURDISH politicians continuing with their total withdrawal from the IRAQI political arena is not surprising after the IRAQI parliament approved the 2018 budget with a reduced share for the KURDISH autonomous region from 17% of the IRAQI budget as had been the case since the new IRAQI government was formed after the U.S. led invasion to the proportion of the KURDISH population that the IRAQI government estimates to be at 12.6%. In my opinion, the 17% demand by the KURDISH government is reasonable as at least 17% of IRAQI soil is covered with KURDISH blood such that the KURDS earned their 17% share through blood, sweat and tears as the KURDISH forces held back ISIS forces from conquering IRAQ in its entirety while IRAQI forces were scrambling and nowhere to be seen.
Meanwhile, in regards to the analysis of IRAQI election results, it is certain that the IRAQI political structure remains complicated with the biggest number of parliamentary seats of 54 won by the coalition headed by the populist SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, a coalition of pro-IRANIAN Shiite parties finishing second with 47 seats while the block led by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, the U.S. favourite, finishing closely with 42 seats. In my opinion, either a coalition under Moqtada al-Sadr will emerge or a pro-IRANIAN coalition under the Fatah Alliance will emerge such that either way, it seems that the U.S. presence in IRAQ will likely diminish over time. In my opinion, many Americans still remember Moqtada al-Sadr from the post-invasion period of IRAQI history when he commanded a militia that attacked U.S. forces and committed atrocities against the SUNNI population. Ironically, Moqtada al-Sadr never reconciled with the U.S. while contemporaneously having a bitter falling out with IRAN. However, in my opinion, Moqtada al-Sadr seems to now be repositioning IRAQ for closer relations with SAUDI ARABIA that once wrote-off IRAQ as a victory for IRAN while now once again, the SAUDI Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, seems to be courting IRAQI’s SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. In my opinion, last weeks ordering by IRAQ’s parliament of a full recount of IRAQ’s recent parliamentary election that resulted in a shock victory for SHIA leader Muqtada al-Sadr is not surprising as nobody ever expected him to win.
However, I was glad to see IRAQ’s Supreme Court formally approve a full manual recount of all 11 million votes in an attempt to salvage the results of a tainted election that could obviously take weeks to complete and thus delay the formation of a new IRAQI government contemporaneously. However, I was surprised to see the winner of the tainted elections, Muqtada al-Sadr, focusing his attention this week on forming an IRAQI coalition government, in spite of dramatic differences, with Hadi al-Amiri, head of the most powerful IRAN-backed SHIA militia and outgoing president Haidar al-Abadi, the U.S. choice to head the new IRAQI government. In my opinion, although Muqtada al-Sadr has been touted as the winner of the IRAQI elections, his party took only 54 seats, while Hadi al-Amiri won 47 and Haidar al-Abadi 42 such that none made a decisive showing that shows the degree to which the political landscape is fractured in post-war IRAQ such that a coalition of the three main parties might actually make sense strategically. That is, the alliance would give the three blocks a combined 143 seats in the assembly, short of a 165-seat majority while the balance of power could be provided by the Kurdish Democratic Party, with 25 seats, or two or more of four other parties given that the party headed by former prime minister Nuri al-Maliki, with 25 seats, refuses to join the coalition.
In regards to this weeks uncertainty looming over IRAQ as the election results still hang in the backdrop without any conclusive outcome other that the likelihood of a coalition government amongst the three major political players as discussed above, IRAQ now finds itself once again with a weak government at the moment when IRAQ needed to be as strong as possible to cope with the destabilising impact of the ISRAELI and IRAN potential confrontation. In my opinion, the biggest problem right now in IRAQ is public confidence, as most IRAQIS fear that a new government that will ultimately be created will not be much better or different from the old IRAQI government in the verge of assuming a secondary role. In addition, I believe that IRAQIS are highly disillusioned with the dominant political class that has ruled IRAQ for the last 15 years as reflected by only 44.5% of voters going to the polls in the most recent IRAQI elections. In my opinion, it is not surprising to see so many IRAQIS easily get nervous about the political situation given the extreme violence with which the IRAQI civilians have been forced to live with for far too long. Furthermore, I believe that the IRAQIS also worry that the defeat of ISIS may not be as permanent as the IRAQI government claims as ISIS recently kidnapped and murdered eight security men on the BAGHDAD-KIRKUK road resulting in an angry popular reaction that triggered the IRAQI government immediately executing 13 ISIS prisoners on death row. In regards to the U.S. and IRAN conflict that seems to be heating up, thanks to the simmering fire between ISRAEL and IRAN, things will only get worse after the U.S. withdrawal from the IRAN nuclear deal in May whereby the U.S. is trying to force IRAN into a political submission by rigorously enforcing sanctions resulting in an economic siege. Obviously, IRAQ, which has a 900-mile border that IRAN, represents an obvious escape route for IRANIAN imports and exports but one that the U.S. is trying hard to close.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, the war in SYRIA entered into a dangerous phase when EASTERN GHOUTA was under attack by SYRIAN Regime forces on so-called SYRIAN rebel terrorists is a human tragedy that unfolded before everybodies eyes such that in my opinion the international community cannot let things keep going in this horrendous fashion. As a friendly reminder, in some of the worst bombardment campaigns of the war in SYRIA, over one thousand people have been killed and over five thousand have been injured in EASTERN GHOUTA, a Free Syrian Army (FSA) held enclave that is home to about 400,000 people that borders the SYRIAN capital of Damascus. In my opinion, President Bashar al-Assad wants to recapture EASTERN GHOUTA because it is so close to DAMASCUS, the capital of SYRIA, that it is possible for rebels to fire mortars into the heart of the capital. In my opinion, the alleged toxic bombing several weeks ago, using chemical weapons, of rebel-held DOUMA, in the EASTERN GHOUTA region killing dozens of people, including children, was deplorable to say the least. Therefore, U.S. President Donald Trump was forced to order the U.S. military, in conjunction with France and the United Kingdom, to launch strikes on SYRIA in retaliation for the suspected chemical weapons attack by the SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad.
In regards to this week’s Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN ally focusing their attention on the southern province of DERAA where they have intensified their bombing campaign after a ceasefire deal between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels and the Russians broke down, I am not surprised to see the intensification of air raids as SYRIAN troops have vowed to advance steadily to recapture lost territory until such time as a ceasefire agreement is negotiated. In my opinion, it is deplorable to see the fighting and air raids driving more than a quarter of a million people in southwest SYRIA from their homes seeking shelter along the borders with JORDAN and ISRAEL. However, in my opinion, RUSSIA refusing that the SAA and IRAN-backed fighters withdraw from captured areas in order to let displaced people evacuate to rebel-held territory in other parts of SYRIA, as was the case in EASTERN GHOUTA and ALEPPO, is primarily due to the government regime now having a dominant hold on SYRIA enabling it to flex its muscles in negotiations. Thus, I was not surprised when SAA government forces retook a town that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war. Thus, in my opinion, RUSSIA made the right decision by reaching an agreement with Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels whereby the FSA rebels will hand over their heavy and medium weapons while those who agree to the accord will be allowed to remain in the region and those who refuse reconciliation will be evacuated.
Meanwhile, in regards to this weeks escalation of tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN after ISRAELI airstrikes targeted IRANIAN military infrastructure inside SYRIA subsequent to IRAN striking ISRAELI positions in the Golan Heights, this reflects the very volatile situation unfolding before everybodies eyes such that common sense must prevail before emotions and hormones take over and the world finds itself in the midst of a Third and Final World War leading to complete disorder. In my opinion, the initial strike by IRAN on ISRAELI positions in the Golan Heights was triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to abandon the landmark international deal with IRAN regarding its nuclear programme, an agreement fiercely opposed by ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who was obviously instrumental in influencing U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision. In my opinion, there appears to have been some regressions this week as the tone escalated between ISRAEL and IRAN as ISRAEL fired missiles into SYRIA in response to a drone trespassing into the ISRAELI controlled Golan Heights. Thus, in my opinion, the best solution at this stage appears to be a big deal between the U.S. and Russia that would limit IRAN’s influence in SYRIA in return for a full U.S. withdrawal from SYRIA. However, with SYRIAN forces clearing up the last Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel pockets in the south of SYRIA, the U.S. seems to have little leverage to utilize in upcoming negotiations with RUSSIA. In my opinion, the U.S. will most probably have to offer to close its U.S. base at AL-TANF on the JORDANIAN border, where many of the U.S. troops in SYRIA are currently stationed and estimated at 2,000. Given that U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly spoken about his goal to extract U.S. forces from SYRIA, I believe the U.S. will exercise the move of a complete withdrawal that will effectively leave RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin as kingmaker in SYRIA.
In my opinion, the current situation in the Middle East depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War that would likely be triggered by a direct ISRAEL and IRAN conflict, such that all leaders across the globe must avoid the temptation to look away but rather should increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, minimize civilian casualties, prevent the further use of chemical weapons and alleviate the humanitarian crisis from a civil war spiralling out of control with no end in sight, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the Middle East. That being said, the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby with SYRIAN forces clearing up the last Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel pockets in the south of SYRIA, the U.S. seems to have little leverage to utilize in upcoming negotiations with RUSSIA such that the U.S. will most probably have to close its U.S. base at AL-TANF on the JORDANIAN border, where many of the U.S. troops in SYRIA are currently stationed and estimated at 2,000, given that U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly spoken about his goal to extract U.S. forces from SYRIA that will effectively leave RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin as kingmaker in SYRIA, as ISRAELI Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu literally pleaded with the RUSSIAN leader to help stabilise the situation on the SYRIAN border, as IRAN along with HEZBOLLAH militias, with thousands of fighters who were instrumental in preserving the ASSAD regime in power, have been building up an arsenal of weapons that ISRAEL now fears could be used against it.
In my opinion, as was seen recently with ISIS able to mount limited but nonetheless painful blows to various factions in SYRIA with shock and awe attacks in DEIR EZZOR, AL BUKAMAL and AL MAYADEEN, it is important to note that although ISIS’s caliphate no longer exists and the ISIS flag does not fly over territory, ISIS has not disappeared but rather ISIS has reverted to old terrorist tactics used before 2014. That is, attacks against security forces and civilians, often involving fake checkpoints, have centered on ISIS’s former strongholds of rugged rural areas known as ISIS strongholds for being hospitable for ISIS to hide out because of the rough terrain so that ISIS has been able to dig tunnels and store weapons, ammunition and bomb-making materials. Therefore, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, although ISIS was literally disappearing from the face of the map in SYRIA, new showdowns between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) only serves to fuel the re-emergence of ISIS as a dangerous player in SYRIA. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS such that this war could very well continue for years to come if RUSSIA is not given mediator powers to negotiate a deal between all Parties. In my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and utter madness.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 307” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while focusing on the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby with SYRIAN forces clearing up the last Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel pockets in the south of SYRIA, the U.S. seems to have little leverage to utilize in upcoming negotiations with RUSSIA such that the U.S. will most probably have to close its U.S. base at AL-TANF on the JORDANIAN border, where many of the U.S. troops in SYRIA are currently stationed and estimated at 2,000, given that U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly spoken about his goal to extract U.S. forces from SYRIA that will effectively leave RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin as kingmaker in SYRIA, as ISRAELI Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu literally pleaded with the RUSSIAN leader to help stabilise the situation on the SYRIAN border, as IRAN along with HEZBOLLAH militias, with thousands of fighters who were instrumental in preserving the ASSAD regime in power, have been building up an arsenal of weapons that ISRAEL now fears could be used against it.
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