World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 306

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 306” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while focusing on the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby there is a higher probability than ever before of a civil war that could take all kinds of different forms, none of which look pretty, with the worst possible form occurring if HEZBOLLAH enters the campaign as the destruction and devastation that could be inflicted on TEL AVIV, the second most populous city of ISRAEL after JERUSALEM, and on other urban centers in ISRAEL, could be on a scale nobody would ever have imagined, while if HEZBOLLAH unleashes a full scale military assault on TEL AVIV, ISRAEL would most probably respond with a full scale military assault on BEIRUT, LEBANON which could very well result in both TEL AVIV and BEIRUT being destroyed in their entireties, such that if a war between ISRAEL and IRAN were to erupt, it could very well resemble the IRAN and IRAQ war that lasted eight years with over one million people killed, such that it is best for the world to intervene now with massive air drops of Valium to reduce anxieties combined with Vasotec to reduce hypertensions and Xanax for panic attacks.

TURKEY News

As a friendly reminder, TURKEY has been on the defense ever since an internal military “Coup D’État” failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP focused their attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say that the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants.

During the week ending on Sunday, July 8, 2018, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures although TURKEY’s crushing of the free press, destruction of the freedom of speech and restrictions to the right to peaceful demonstrations seems to be punishing the TURKISH economy as high inflation in TURKEY and a surge in foreign borrowing by TURKISH banks could plunge TURKEY into an economic crisis during 2018. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKISH forces and their Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel allies continued to celebrate the capture of AFRIN as the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) did not intervene so that TURKEY was in essence given the informal approval to crush the SYRIAN KURDISH region. However, at least 150,000 people have been displaced in AFRIN with estimates of the total number of civilian deaths at over 200 since TURKEY began its aggression in January of 2018 of the KURDISH region on the border between SYRIA and TURKEY under TURKEY’s Operation Olive Branch.

Meanwhile this week, the focus in TURKEY was on the results of the elections held on June 24, 2018 as this was the most pivotal election in modern TURKISH history that will now result in the abolition of the prime minister’s role and thus President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems well positioned to fulfill his dreams of obtaining supreme political power while overturning almost a century of parliamentary rule. Thus, TURKEY’s main opposition parties that created a broad electoral alliance before the general elections could not create a significant enough challenge to the dominance of the governing AKP party under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Although President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won the presidential race, the opposition block in parliament does not look like it will impose a significant challenge to the governing AKP. That is, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s closest rival consisting of Muharrem İnce of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) who turned out to be a charismatic speaker who could attract people to his rallies only ended up being the choice of his grassroots supporters. Therefore, Muharrem İnce only managed to increase the main opposition CHP vote from the stable 25% to 30.6% percent but that was not enough as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was able to win more than half of the votes in the first round.

It is important to note that, this week, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan went straight ahead making changes to 74 articles in its constitution, giving President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sweeping new powers with the amendments that mean that the president is now the head of the state and the head of the government as TURKEY now moves to an executive presidential system following President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s win. In summary, the changes made mean that the president can now: (1) Form and regulate ministries while removing civil servants without any parliamentary approval; (2) Appoint four members of the Board of Judges and Prosecutors while the parliament can appoint seven; (3) Draft the budget and decide on security policies; (4) Declare a state of emergency for up to six months, such as the one that has been in effect for roughly two years, without cabinet approval; and (5) Dissolve parliament triggering early presidential elections. It is important to note that the changes in this latest decree will come into effect when President Recep Tayyip Erdogan takes the oath of office that is expected to happen in parliament on July 8 or 9. Ironically, TURKEY’s state election commission announced its final vote tally, in which President Erdogan won 52.59 percent of the vote, followed by opposition candidate Muharrem Ince of the CHP party with 30.64 percent and jailed pro-KURDISH candidate Selahattin Demirtas with 8.4 percent although there is no sign of any TURKISH government pardon nor release of the jailed KURDISH leader.

In addition, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that TURKEY’s military will not stop trying to oust SYRIAN KURDISH fighters from SYRIA’s north with the ultimate goal of moving eastward into MANBIJ and other areas controlled by the U.S. backed KURDISH YPG which TURKEY considers to be terrorists regardless of what the U.S. or any other nation has to say about the KURDISH YPG. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated that TURKEY would not stop until TURKEY has made safe all areas currently controlled by the KURDISH YPG starting with MANBIJ. However, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also stressed that TURKEY’s fight against the KURDISH YPG would not distract from efforts to eliminate the remnants of ISIS in SYRIA. Nonetheless, U.S. President Donald Trump announced his intent to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria as soon as the fight against ISIS is complete while stating that the U.S. will consult with groups of U.S. allies and coordinate with others in SYRIA in order to decide the U.S. next steps after the completion of the U.S. mission of defeat of ISIS in SYRIA while TURKEY continues to remain one of the allies that should be involved in these U.S. consultations. While the U.S. continues to describe its decision to work with the KURDISH YPG as a tactical, short-term approach to the defeat of ISIS, the U.S. seems to still desire to maintain relations with its NATO ally TURKEY on the basis that a Syria that is stabilized along terms dictated by IRAN goes against U.S. interests in the region. Meanwhile, this week, U.S. President Donald Trump congratulated TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on his success in the June 24 elections in a phone call in which the two leaders also confirmed their commitment to the MANBIJ roadmap whereby the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) are scheduled to withdraw from MANBIJ shortly such that the deal with the U.S. on the MANBIJ issue seems to be proceeding without any problems except that TURKISH troops are continuing with their ninth round of patrols this week of the MANBIJ outskirts but have yet to enter the town despite an agreement between TURKEY and the U.S. on the withdrawal of KURDISH units in the area.

Meanwhile, the leaders of three major players in SYRIA, RUSSIA, IRAN and TURKEY ended a summit with a commitment to achieving a lasting ceasefire in SYRIA, even as the future role of U.S. forces in SYRIA remains in doubt. The meeting in the TURKISH capital of ANKARA brought together two of SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad’s strongest supporters, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of TURKEY, as the primary backer of the opposition Free Syrian Army (FSA). Notably absent from the talks were representatives from SYRIA itself and from the U.S., another important player in the SYRIAN conflict. In an unusual show of solidarity with IRAN, Turkish President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan told his IRANIAN counterpart Hassan Rouhani that he found the U.S. decision to withdraw from a 2015 nuclear deal with IRAN to be wrong. In a telephone call, TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan told IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani that TURKEY wanted the deal to be maintained, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would pull out from the deal. Meanwhile, this week, ISRAEL and TURKEY relations appeared to be soured as TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated his resolve to advance the interests of TURKEY with the MUSLIM world including IRAN and the PLESTINIANS. Therefore, modern ISRAELI / U.S. and TURKISH relations have changed significantly from their commencement during the Cold War in 1947 against RUSSIAN expansionism when TURKEY was the pillar of strength in the MIDDLE EAST to the current rise of the authoritarian strongman President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and governing AKP whereby it now seems that TURKEY has adopted an approach of antagonism to the U.S., Israel, and E.U. with an Islamization of this once proudly secular TURKISH nation.

IRAQ News

As a friendly reminder, the KURDS still consider the September 25 referendum victory as the culmination of decades of struggle for a KURDISH state of their own although the IRAQI government has clearly stated that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. However, after the votes were tallied and the referendum passed with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, Iraq’s top SHIITE cleric out right rejected the outcome of KURDISTAN’s independence vote despite the overwhelming 92% voting in favour of separating from IRAQ. Subsequently, IRAQI forces along with IRANIAN trained paramilitaries deployed heavy weaponry build up in KIRKUK, the jewel of the proposed future KURDISTAN state enabling IRAQI forces to take control of all major areas of KIRKUK province from KURDISH YPG fighters. In particular, IRAQI forces took ALTON KUPRI, the oil-rich province of KURDISTAN as rocket; artillery and heavy machine-gun fire erupted in the region.

Subsequently, IRAQI Kurdish authorities stated that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession. However, the KURDS also stated that this decision must become a basis for starting an inclusive national dialogue between KURDISTAN and IRAQ to resolve all disputes through implementation of all constitutional articles and in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution because all elements of the IRAQI Constitution must be respected in order to secure the unity of IRAQ. Meanwhile, this week, KURDISH politicians continued to boycott IRAQI parliament with relentless protests at the reduction of KURDISTAN’s share from 17% to nearly 12% of the IRAQI parliament approved 2018 budget. Further, highlighting the division was IRAQ accusing KURDISTAN of corruption in handling oil exports from fields under the KURDISTAN region’s control while IRAQ also went so far as to suggest that revenues could be sufficient to satisfy KURDISTAN expenses otherwise which the KURDISTAN government obviously refuted.

Meanwhile this week, the only thing that appears certain after the May 12, 2018 election is that the voters have rejected both IRAN and the U.S. consisting of the two outside powers that have dominated IRAQI internal affairs since 2003 such that the election of a coalition headed by the populist SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr is a sign that a growing number of IRAQIS are eager to reassert their identity and independence. Thus, all the IRAQI election did was establish a framework for the real political negotiations that are currently ongoing and will likely take months to complete. However, there are two obvious potential outcomes from IRAQI political party negotiations with substantial regional and international consequences. That is, the first potential outcome is a coalition headed by Moqtada al-Sadr that probably means a diminishing U.S. presence in IRAQ combined with an IRAQI government that is independent of IRAN’s influence while reintegrating an independent and sovereign IRAQ into the Arab world. Conversely, the second potential outcome is a coalition headed by the pro-IRANIAN Fatah Alliance representing the SHIITE militias along with parties loyal to former Prime Ministers Haider al-Abadi and Nouri al-Maliki as well as smaller groups such as the Kurdistan Coalition that would result in an overtly pro-IRANIAN government. Nonetheless, IRAQ’s parliament ordered a full recount of IRAQ’s recent parliamentary election that resulted in a shock victory for SHIA leader Muqtada al-Sadr. Furthermore, last week, in spite of dramatic differences, the three parties that gained the most votes in IRAQ’s May 12, 2018 parliamentary elections agreed to work together to form a new IRAQI government. Ironically, the driving force behind this odd alliance is SHIA cleric Muqtada al-Sadr who seems to be ready, willing and able to work with Hadi al-Amiri, head of the most powerful IRAN-backed SHIA militia and outgoing president Haidar al-Abadi, the U.S. choice to head the new IRAQI government.

Meanwhile this week, rumours have been travelling through the grapevine that ISIS’s supreme leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, has returned back to IRAQ and is likely taking refuge in the western desert of IRAQ. It is important to note that both IRAQI and U.S. led Coalition jets have tried to target Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi more than once, without being able to locating his precise coordinates with Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi supposedly living in a house in MOSUL at one time where an airstrike was carried out but only to reveal later that the house was intentionally set-up as a decoy by ISIS. Thus, ISIS still poses an on-going threat in IRAQ albeit significantly reduced from the days when ISIS controlled a huge swath of land such that IRAQI forces have tightened their grip on IRAQ’s borders with SYRIA to curb infiltration of ISIS terrorists between the two countries with an iron fence set-up on the IRAQI-SYRIAN borders where surveillance cameras will be installed in the near future to control the borderline vigilantly. In addition, IRAQI warplanes launched, last month, a new wave of air raids against outposts of the ISIS organization in SYRIA as IRAQI security forces follow ISIS militants in the whole region surrounding the IRAQI borders and thus although IRAQ does not have intentions to intervene within SYRIAN affairs, airstrikes against ISIS in SYRIA continue as deemed necessary to secure the IRAQI borders. It is important to note that for the past month, about 150 U.S. soldiers and Marines have been deployed at UM JURIUS, IRAQ military base that is shared by U.S. and IRAQI forces as a fire base to provide artillery fire support for IRAQI ground troops as required in the fight against ISIS.

SYRIA News

As a friendly reminder, the current SYRIAN government under the control of President Bashar al-Assad stated that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA, which was liberated from ISIS by the U.S. backed and KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In particular, the existing SYRIAN regime stated that both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime. Meanwhile, fighting has continued sporadically in EASTERN GHOUTA as RUSSIA formally stated that the massive RUSSIAN backed SYRIAN military offensive is almost over with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels now cornered in just a single town after being forced to abandon the greater part of the EASTERN GHOUTA region. Meanwhile several weeks ago, dozens of people were killed, including children, during the alleged toxic bombing, using chemical weapons, of rebel-held DOUMA, in the EASTERN GHOUTA region. Not surprisingly, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the U.S. military, in conjunction with France and the United Kingdom, to launch strikes on SYRIA in retaliation for the suspected chemical weapons attack by the SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad. However, U.S., British and French missile strikes had a limited impact on SYRIAN president Bashar al-Assad’s ability to carry out chemical weapons attacks in the future even though U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted Mission Accomplished after the attacks claiming that they had successfully struck the heart of SYRIA’s chemical weapons program.

However, this week the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN ally focused their attention on the southern province of DERAA where they have intensified their bombing campaign after a ceasefire deal between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels and the Russians broke down. Thus, air raids were intensified as SYRIAN troops have vowed to advance steadily to recapture lost territory until such time as a ceasefire agreement is negotiated. Therefore, the relative lull in the fighting has been shattered following the failure to reach a ceasefire agreement as SYRIAN government and RUSSIAN planes have been targeting a number of Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel held towns in the province after the failed ceasefire deal. It appears that dozens of air strikes mainly targeting the towns of TAFAS in the western countryside of DERAA and in the eastern countryside resulted in hundreds of missiles and crude barrel bombs being unleashed by SYRIAN and RUSSIAN aircraft.

Meanwhile, the tensions between IRAN and ISRAEL seem to have continued to escalate again after ISRAELI airstrikes targeted IRANIAN military infrastructure inside SYRIA several weeks ago. Obviously, IRAN condemned the wave of ISRAELI air strikes in SYRIA and clearly stated that these attacks by ISRAEL represent a blatant violation of SYRIA’s sovereignty such that IRAN has backed SYRIA’s right to defend itself against ISRAEL. It is important to note that the strikes were the heaviest strikes carried out by ISRAEL on SYRIA in decades that came right after twenty rockets were fired at ISRAELI military positions in the occupied Golan Heights of SYRIA. It is no secret that the strikes hurt IRAN that has deployed hundreds of troops inside SYRIA as military advisers to the SYRIAN governments Syrian Arab Army (SAA) while thousands of IRANIAN militia armed, trained and financed by IRAN have also been battling SYRIAN rebel forces alongside the SAA. ISRAEL stated that ISRAELI fighter jets struck almost IRAN’s entire military infrastructure inside Syria consisting of some 70 targets in ISRAELS biggest assault since SYRIA’s civil war commenced in 2011.

Subsequently, this week, the tone escalated between ISRAEL and IRAN, as former deputy national security adviser Eran Etzion, a seasoned veteran on the ISRAELI and IRANIAN conflict, stated that it appears that ISRAEL is closer than ever before to a war with IRAN. However, Eran Etzion’s views represent a striking departure from the conventional views of ISRAEL’S security community who generally limit their opinions that the nuclear agreement signed by President Barack Obama with IRAN was a bad deal. Conversely, Eran Etzion believes that President Donald Trump’s brutal abandonment of the agreement is likely to draw IRAN closer to a nuclear bomb and has the potential to plunge the entire region into war. However, the substantial threat lies in the most volatile place on earth today consisting of SYRIA where ISRAEL seems to have already entered into a low-intensity war that can quickly deteriorate because it seems that the only thing separating ISRAEL from IRAN is the RUSSIANS. It is important to note that ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is constantly reiterating that ISRAEL’s goal is to remove the IRANIANS from all of SYRIA with the U.S. and the E.U. supporting him for the most part. However, the goal of removing the IRANIANS from SYRIA is simply not within ISRAELI power such that ISRAEL’s insistence on this goal is likely to trigger a military confrontation involving IRANIANS, pro-IRANIAN militias and HEZBOLLAH, with TURKEY most probably throwing their support behind IRAN. Therefore, it seems that the only hope for some sort of solution at this stage is in the hands of the RUSSIANS who speak to everyone but who seem to tell one story to the IRANIANS and a different story to the ISRAELIS.

TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

As a friendly reminder, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the KURDS as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis.

Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures while TURKISH forces and their Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel allies continued to celebrate the capture of AFRIN in what from the KURDISH perspective appears to have been a massacre. In my opinion, the KURDISH YPG had little choice but to abandon AFRIN as the KURDISH YPG militants decided not to make a fight until death stand against TURKEY as around 10,000 KURDISH YPG militants quickly withdrew in order to be alive to fight against TURKEY elsewhere after more that 1,500 KURDISH YPG fighters had been killed in the AFRIN offensive by TURKEY whose sheer brute military strength cannot be denied.

Meanwhile, this week’s focus in TURKEY was on the results of the elections held on July 1, 2018 as it represented the most pivotal election in modern TURKISH history that will now result in the abolition of the prime minister’s role and thus President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems poised to fulfill his dreams by obtaining supreme political power while overturning almost a century of parliamentary rule. Although in my opinion the coalition formed by the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the Iyi Party (IP), the Islamist Saadet Party (SP) and the Democrat Party (DP) makes complete sense strategically, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan still won the presidential race with the opposition block not gaining any significant increases in parliament to pose a significant challenge to the governing AKP. In my opinion, the governing AKP was able to capitalize on positive TURKISH nationalist sentiments after the TURKISH military victory in AFRIN as the governing AKP had never before called early elections in the nearly 16 years the governing AKP has been in power. Therefore, the June 24 elections resulted in another dominant win for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with a commanding 52.6% of the more than 50 million votes, thus exceeding the 50% threshold to get elected in the first round. However, it would not have been possible for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to get re-elected if his governing AKP Party had not allied with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) such that the two parties will now be working closely together in a coalition to run the TURKISH country.

However, this week’s focus by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was on cementing his hold on power as he went straight ahead making changes to 74 articles in its constitution, giving President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sweeping new powers with the amendments that mean that the president is now the head of the state and the head of the government as TURKEY now moves to an executive presidential system following President Recep Tayyip Erdogan win. In regards to the final vote tally whereby President Erdogan won 52.59 percent of the vote, followed by opposition candidate Muharrem Ince of the CHP party with 30.64 percent and jailed pro-KURDISH candidate Selahattin Demirtas with 8.4 percent, there is no sign of any TURKISH government pardon nor release of the jailed KURDISH leader. Therefore, in my opinion, although President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may have won the battle, the war is far from over because there is still significant discontent within TURKISH society regarding his repression, arrests and torture of dissidents, most notably, KURDISH leader Selahattin Demirtas. Thus, in my opinion, even with the majority victory by the governing AKP, the hundreds of thousands thrown in prison and the protests that have been shutdown with increasing violence demonstrates a scale of repression in TURKEY that is unacceptable under internationally recognized human rights and civil liberties of a so-called TURKISH democracy that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been running as a virtual dictator since coming to power back in 2002. In my opinion, the crack-down activities over dissidents by the governing AKP over the last two years are a complete disgrace to the concept of a democracy with nearly 160,000 people arrested; over 150,000 civil servants fired; teachers, judges and lawyers prosecuted on superficial charges; over 300 journalists arrested; over 100,000 websites blocked and over 180 media outlets shut down.

In regards to TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warning that TURKEY’s military will not stop trying to oust SYRIAN KURDISH fighters from SYRIA’s north and that TURKISH troops would move eastward into MANBIJ and other areas controlled by the U.S. backed KURDISH YPG which TURKEY considers to be terrorists regardless of what the U.S. or any other nation has to say about the KURDISH YPG, it is difficult to determine at this time whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will execute on this threat in the short-term or whether he will be open to negotiations with the KURDISH YPG via the U.S. However, unlike the case in AFRIN, the U.S. has troops based in MANBIJ and across the rest of the KURDISH region such that the U.S. is adamant that it will not withdraw its ground forces from MANBIJ under the presumption that TURKEY cannot attack the city of MANBIJ without running the risk of killing U.S. soldiers. Therefore, in my opinion, some kind of mutual agreement between TURKEY and the U.S. will likely determine the fate of MANBIJ in the near future. In addition, in my opinion, given the fact that the U.S. is retaining forces in other parts of the KURDISH region and is not planning on leaving anytime soon, TURKEY’s goal of invading the entire KURDISH region is unlikely to transpire in the short-term. Thus, I was not surprised to see the U.S. and TURKEY reach an agreement on the KURDISH YPG’s withdrawal from MANBIJ although I was surprised to see the KURDISH forces agreeing to retreat to the east of the Euphrates River in order to satisfy TURKEY’s demands. Thus, in my opinion, the KURDISH YPG seem to have accepted the deal negotiated by the U.S. on the basis that the U.S. is in the best position to negotiate with TURKEY on behalf of the KURDISH YPG such that independent patrol activities by soldiers of Turkish Armed Forces and U.S. Armed Forces have already entered their ninth rounds on the border between the EUPHRATES area and MANBIJ. In my opinion, the friction experienced this week when KURDISH commanders warned TURKEY that if TURKISH forces enter the city center of MANBIJ, they will be fired upon by the KURDISH forces, is not surprising as the KURDS reserve the right to first retreat the area peacefully before the TURKISH forces settle in. In my opinion, SYRIA has not surprisingly condemned the presence of both the U.S. and TURKISH troops in SYRIA, calling the deployments aggressive and a violation of SYRIA’s territorial integrity such that as part of the upcoming U.S. and RUSSIA meetings by their respective presidents, it would be best for the SYRIAN federation to reach a deal for the U.S. forces to withdraw from SYRIA.

In regards to the leaders of three major players in SYRIA; RUSSIA, IRAN and TURKEY ending a summit with a commitment to achieving a lasting ceasefire in SYRIA, even as the future role of U.S. forces in SYRIA remains in doubt, everyone seems to agree with the overall principal that a SYRIAN peace deal followed by humanitarian aid is critical albeit the realities that the respective parties cannot seem to be able to agree on the details in terms of timing and logistics. In regards to the unusual show of solidarity with IRAN whereby Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his IRANIAN counterpart Hassan Rouhani that he found the U.S. decision to withdraw from a 2015 nuclear deal with IRAN to be wrong, I am not surprised as TURKEY recognizes that the deal was the product of more than a decade of diplomacy whereby the final nuclear agreement signed in July of 2015 by the U.S., France, Britain, Germany, Russia, China and Iran represents a milestone that the U.S. has now unilaterally decided to withdraw from. Not surprisingly, among the few nations to welcome U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision were ISRAEL and SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN’s arch-nemesis in the Middle East. However, ISRAEL and TURKEY relations appeared to be soured this week as TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated his resolve to advance the interests of TURKEY with the MUSLIM world including IRAN and the PLESTINIANS. In my opinion, with the amendments to the TURKISH constitution to essentially grant President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan exclusive authoritarian power, the newly empowered authoritarian regime seems to have transformed TURKEY into an anti-western and anti-Semitic rogue nation that seems to be no less radical than IRAN where no amount of reasonable accommodations seem to be able to quell their nationalist expansionist ISLAMIC dreams. In my opinion, the U.S. and ISRAEL continue to have a strategic reason for their relationship with TURKEY, mainly the location of a critical U.S. air base in INCIRLIK, TURKEY that is located in a critical area in the MIDDLE EAST next to SYRIA, IRAQ, RUSSIA, and the BLACK SEA. Therefore, in my opinion, TURKEY believes that the U.S. and ISRAEL cannot live without the U.S. INCIRLIK airbase, and that the U.S. needs TURKEY as the eastern military force of NATO. Thus, in my opinion, President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan believes that he can take liberties against the U.S. and ISRAELI interests in the region, while advancing his own agenda by crushing the KURDS in IRAQ and SYRIA who have been loyal U.S. allies, supporting the HAMAS paramilitary PALESTINIANS, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and working with U.S. arch nemesis IRAN that seems to be making every effort to destabilize the region with its actions to irritate ISRAEL.

IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

As a friendly reminder, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.

Meanwhile, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. In my opinion, this week’s KURDISH politicians continuing with their total withdrawal from the IRAQI political arena is not surprising after the IRAQI parliament approved the 2018 budget with a reduced share for the KURDISH autonomous region from 17% of the IRAQI budget as had been the case since the new IRAQI government was formed after the U.S. led invasion to the proportion of the KURDISH population that the IRAQI government estimates to be at 12.6%. In my opinion, the 17% demand by the KURDISH government is reasonable as at least 17% of IRAQI soil is covered with KURDISH blood such that the KURDS earned their 17% share through blood, sweat and tears as the KURDISH forces held back ISIS forces from conquering IRAQ in its entirety while IRAQI forces were scrambling and nowhere to be seen.

Meanwhile, in regards to the analysis of IRAQI election results, it is certain that the IRAQI political structure remains complicated with the biggest number of parliamentary seats of 54 won by the coalition headed by the populist SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, a coalition of pro-IRANIAN Shiite parties finishing second with 47 seats while the block led by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, the U.S. favourite, finishing closely with 42 seats. In my opinion, either a coalition under Moqtada al-Sadr will emerge or a pro-IRANIAN coalition under the Fatah Alliance will emerge such that either way, it seems that the U.S. presence in IRAQ will likely diminish over time. In my opinion, many Americans still remember Moqtada al-Sadr from the post-invasion period of IRAQI history when he commanded a militia that attacked U.S. forces and committed atrocities against the SUNNI population. Ironically, Moqtada al-Sadr never reconciled with the U.S. while contemporaneously having a bitter falling out with IRAN. However, in my opinion, Moqtada al-Sadr seems to now be repositioning IRAQ for closer relations with SAUDI ARABIA that once wrote-off IRAQ as a victory for IRAN while now once again, the SAUDI Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, seems to be courting IRAQI’s SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. In my opinion, last weeks ordering by IRAQ’s parliament of a full recount of IRAQ’s recent parliamentary election that resulted in a shock victory for SHIA leader Muqtada al-Sadr is not surprising as nobody ever expected him to win.

However, I was glad to see IRAQ’s Supreme Court formally approve a full manual recount of all 11 million votes in an attempt to salvage the results of a tainted election that could obviously take weeks to complete and thus delay the formation of a new IRAQI government contemporaneously. However, I was surprised to see the winner of the tainted elections, Muqtada al-Sadr, focusing his attention this week on forming an IRAQI coalition government, in spite of dramatic differences, with Hadi al-Amiri, head of the most powerful IRAN-backed SHIA militia and outgoing president Haidar al-Abadi, the U.S. choice to head the new IRAQI government. In my opinion, although Muqtada al-Sadr has been touted as the winner of the IRAQI elections, his party took only 54 seats, while Hadi al-Amiri won 47 and Haidar al-Abadi 42 such that none made a decisive showing that shows the degree to which the political landscape is fractured in post-war IRAQ such that a coalition of the three main parties might actually make sense strategically. That is, the alliance would give the three blocks a combined 143 seats in the assembly, short of a 165-seat majority while the balance of power could be provided by the Kurdish Democratic Party, with 25 seats, or two or more of four other parties given that the party headed by former prime minister Nuri al-Maliki, with 25 seats, refuses to join the coalition.

In regards to this weeks rumours that have been travelling through the grapevine that ISIS’s supreme leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, has returned back to IRAQ and is likely taking refuge in the western desert of IRAQ, I believe that he has left both IRAQ and SYRIA and set-up a safe haven somewhere in Africa, being the safest place at the meantime for the ISIS head to reside as Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was unable to move freely between SYRIA and IRAQ like he used to and there continues to be a bounty outstanding for his head. In regards to ISIS still poses an on-going threat in IRAQ albeit significantly reduced from the days when ISIS controlled a huge swath of land, I am not surprised to see IRAQI forces tightened their grip on IRAQ’s borders with SYRIA to curb infiltration of ISIS terrorists between the two countries. Furthermore, I am not surprised to see that although U.S. military bases are diminishing in IRAQ, UM JURIUS military base has sprung up in the past month in the northern IRAQI desert, about one mile from the SYRIAN border, at the request of the IRAQI government, so that U.S. artillery can still target ISIS fighters who have attempted to flee from IRAQ to neighbouring SYRIA. In my opinion, it is important to pursue any remaining ISIS elements remaining in IRAQ so that they are unable to regroup and pose a new threat to IRAQ. In my opinion, although the fight against ISIS is almost over, there are still pockets of ISIS resistance that need to be cleared from SYRIAN and IRAQI territories. Thus, dangerous ISIS leaders such as ISIS leader, Shehab Ahmed al-Sallab, continue to be killed by ALLIANCE troops in IRAQ as these leaders still represent ISIS die-hard fighters who prefer to be killed in the line of fire than to ever surrender alive.

SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

As a friendly reminder, the war in SYRIA entered into a dangerous phase when EASTERN GHOUTA was under attack by SYRIAN Regime forces on so-called SYRIAN rebel terrorists is a human tragedy that unfolded before everybodies eyes such that in my opinion the international community cannot let things keep going in this horrendous fashion. As a friendly reminder, in some of the worst bombardment campaigns of the war in SYRIA, over one thousand people have been killed and over five thousand have been injured in EASTERN GHOUTA, a Free Syrian Army (FSA) held enclave that is home to about 400,000 people that borders the SYRIAN capital of Damascus. In my opinion, President Bashar al-Assad wants to recapture EASTERN GHOUTA because it is so close to DAMASCUS, the capital of SYRIA, that it is possible for rebels to fire mortars into the heart of the capital. In my opinion, the alleged toxic bombing several weeks ago, using chemical weapons, of rebel-held DOUMA, in the EASTERN GHOUTA region killing dozens of people, including children, was deplorable to say the least. Therefore, U.S. President Donald Trump was forced to order the U.S. military, in conjunction with France and the United Kingdom, to launch strikes on SYRIA in retaliation for the suspected chemical weapons attack by the SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad.

In regards to this week’s Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN ally focusing their attention on the southern province of DERAA where they have intensified their bombing campaign after a ceasefire deal between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels and the Russians broke down, I am not surprised to see the intensification of air raids as SYRIAN troops have vowed to advance steadily to recapture lost territory until such time as a ceasefire agreement is negotiated. In my opinion, it is deplorable to see the fighting and air raids driving more than a quarter of a million people in southwest SYRIA from their homes seeking shelter along the borders with JORDAN and ISRAEL although both countries have stated publicly that they will not open their borders to refugees although JORDAN has already taken in more than half a million refugees thus far during the SYRIAN war such that JORDAN and ISRAEL prefer to distribute some supplies inside SYRIA for the time being. However, in my opinion, RUSSIA refusing that the SAA and IRAN-backed fighters withdraw from captured areas in order to let displaced people evacuate to rebel-held territory in other parts of SYRIA, as was the case in EASTERN GHOUTA and ALEPPO, is primarily due to the government regime now having a dominant hold on SYRIA enabling it to flex its muscles in negotiations. Thus, I am also not surprised at RUSSIA demanding that Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels hand over their heavy weapons in their entirety in a one shot deal while the rebels want to hand over their arsenal over several phases.

Meanwhile, in regards to this weeks escalation of tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN after ISRAELI airstrikes targeted IRANIAN military infrastructure inside SYRIA subsequent to IRAN striking ISRAELI positions in the Golan Heights, this reflects the very volatile situation unfolding before everybodies eyes such that common sense must prevail before emotions and hormones take over and the world finds itself in the midst of a Third and Final World War leading to complete disorder. In my opinion, the initial strike by IRAN on ISRAELI positions in the Golan Heights was triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to abandon the landmark international deal with IRAN regarding its nuclear programme, an agreement fiercely opposed by ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who was obviously instrumental in influencing U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision. In my opinion, there appears to have been some regressions this week as the tone escalated between ISRAEL and IRAN as former deputy national security adviser Eran Etzion, a seasoned veteran on the ISRAELI and IRANIAN conflict, stated that it appears that ISRAEL is closer than ever before to a war with IRAN. In regards to opinions of Eran Etzion, I share similar views that for the first time, there is direct military friction between ISRAEL and IRAN resulting in a higher probability than ever before of deterioration into an open war that could take all kinds of different forms, none of which look pretty.

In my opinion, the worst possible form of war between ISRAEL and IRAN would occur if HEZBOLLAH enters the campaign as the destruction and devastation that could be inflicted on TEL AVIV, the second most populous city of ISRAEL after JERUSALEM, and on other urban centers in ISRAEL could be on a scale nobody would ever have imagined. In my opinion, if HEZBOLLAH unleashes a full scale assault on TEL AVIV, ISRAEL will respond with a full scale assault on BEIRUT, LEBANON which could very well result in both TEL AVIV and BEIRUT being destroyed in their entireties. Furthermore, if a war between ISRAEL and IRAN were to erupt it could very well resemble the IRAN and IRAQ war that lasted eight years with over one million people killed.

In my opinion, the current situation in the Middle East depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War that would likely be triggered by a direct ISRAEL and IRAN conflict, such that all leaders across the globe must avoid the temptation to look away but rather should increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, minimize civilian casualties, prevent the further use of chemical weapons and alleviate the humanitarian crisis from a civil war spiralling out of control with no end in sight, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the Middle East. That being said, the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby the worst possible form of war between ISRAEL and IRAN would occur if HEZBOLLAH enters the campaign as the destruction and devastation that could be inflicted on TEL AVIV, the second most populous city of ISRAEL after JERUSALEM, and on other urban centers in ISRAEL could be on a scale nobody would ever have imagined. In my opinion, if HEZBOLLAH unleashes a full scale assault on TEL AVIV, ISRAEL will respond with a full scale assault on BEIRUT, LEBANON which could very well result in both TEL AVIV and BEIRUT being destroyed in their entireties. Furthermore, if a war between ISRAEL and IRAN were to erupt it could very well resemble the IRAN and IRAQ war that lasted eight years with over one million people killed such that it is best for the world to intervene now with massive air drops of Valium to reduce anxieties combined with Vasotec to reduce hypertensions and Xanax for panic attacks.

In my opinion, as was seen recently with ISIS able to mount limited but nonetheless painful blows to various factions in SYRIA with shock and awe attacks in DEIR EZZOR, AL BUKAMAL and AL MAYADEEN, it is important to note that although ISIS’s caliphate no longer exists and the ISIS flag does not fly over territory, ISIS has not disappeared but rather ISIS has reverted to old terrorist tactics used before 2014. That is, attacks against security forces and civilians, often involving fake checkpoints, have centered on ISIS’s former strongholds of rugged rural areas known as ISIS strongholds for being hospitable for ISIS to hide out because of the rough terrain so that ISIS has been able to dig tunnels and store weapons, ammunition and bomb-making materials. Therefore, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, although ISIS was literally disappearing from the face of the map in SYRIA, new showdowns between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) only serves to fuel the re-emergence of ISIS as a dangerous player in SYRIA. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS such that this war could very well continue for years to come if RUSSIA is not given mediator powers to negotiate a deal between all Parties. In my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and utter madness.

Summary

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 306” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while focusing on the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby there is a higher probability than ever before of a civil war that could take all kinds of different forms, none of which look pretty, with the worst possible form occurring if HEZBOLLAH enters the campaign as the destruction and devastation that could be inflicted on TEL AVIV, the second most populous city of ISRAEL after JERUSALEM, and on other urban centers in ISRAEL, could be on a scale nobody would ever have imagined, while if HEZBOLLAH unleashes a full scale military assault on TEL AVIV, ISRAEL would most probably respond with a full scale military assault on BEIRUT, LEBANON which could very well result in both TEL AVIV and BEIRUT being destroyed in their entireties, such that if a war between ISRAEL and IRAN were to erupt, it could very well resemble the IRAN and IRAQ war that lasted eight years with over one million people killed, such that it is best for the world to intervene now with massive air drops of Valium to reduce anxieties combined with Vasotec to reduce hypertensions and Xanax for panic attacks.

Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:

July 8, 2018