In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 289” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the current situation in AFRIN depicts how there is a persistent, perpetual and relentless jockeying for money, power and control whereby territorial disputes that cannot be resolved through negotiations must be resolved through force such that the most effective method to justify an offensive is by utilizing the terrorist card to bypass all international laws and regulations while legitimizing military operations that have no underlying justification other than a desire to control additional territories currently controlled by the opposition resulting in complex, dysfunctional and degenerative relationships as part of the never ending Hunger Games of the mentally insane.
TURKEY News As a friendly reminder, TURKEY has been on the defense ever since an internal military “Coup D’État” failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP focused their attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say that the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants. During the week ending on Sunday, March 11, 2018, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures although TURKEY’s crushing of the free press, destruction of the freedom of speech and restrictions to the right to peaceful demonstrations seems to be punishing the TURKISH economy as high inflation in TURKEY and a surge in foreign borrowing by TURKISH banks could plunge TURKEY into an economic crisis as soon as 2018. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKEY hammered the KURDS in AFRIN as KURDISH families hid in their basements to seek shelter, huddled on blankets in dimly lit caves, hid in the rubble of bombed-out buildings and others gathered around campfires as TURKEY’s military offensive in SYRIA against the U.S. backed KURDISH militias has driven civilians underground. The fighting that has resulted in relentless airstrikes has displaced an estimated 16,000 people as shelling has resulted in AFRIN streets laying deserted with crumpled cars, debris and gaping holes where shops once stood. However, this week TURKEY continued with their siege of AFRIN as TURKISH forces and their Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel allies seized control of the town of JINDERES giving them control of one of the largest settlements in SYRIA’s northwest AFRIN region. The TURKISH army and its allies from the Free Syrian Army (FSA) pushed KURDISH YPG fighters out of the town center following intense clashes adding that operations to secure the area were continuing. However, air raids on the JINDERES town center had intensified after TURKISH forces and the FSA captured the hill overlooking the town enabling TURKEY so far to seize five of the seven urban centers in the AFRIN region. However, TURKEY’s foreign minister stated that TURKEYS air and ground assault on AFRIN, dubbed Operation Olive Branch should be completed by May. As a friendly reminder, TURKEY launched its military operation in SYRIA during January of 2018 to drive out the KURDISH YPG that TURKEY sees as an extension of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) that has waged a rebellion on TURKISH soil since 1984 although only the KURDISH PKK is considered a terrorist organization by TURKEY, the U.S. and the E.U. Meanwhile, KURDISH allied SYRIAN Arab militias stated that they would be redeploying around 1,700 fighters from war fronts against ISIS to the AFRIN region to help fight off the TURKISH offensive. Meanwhile, the U.S. has its hands tied as although the U.S. previously supported the KURDISH YPG led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in its war against ISIS, the U.S. does not want to go to war directly with TURKEY who continues to be a U.S. NATO ally. However, TURKEY has now told the U.S. directly via presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin to cease shifting KURDISH YPG fighters from MANBIJ to AFRIN in SYRIA. Ironically, the U.S. has about 2,000 soldiers based in MANBIJ, 100 kilometres east of AFRIN, although TURKEY has said that TURKEY will eventually launch a military operation against the KURDISH YPG in MANBIJ. Unfortunately, TURKEY’s military operations have displaced tens of thousands of innocent civilians from the KURDISH controlled enclave of AFRIN while another 5,000 managed to reach surrounding villages and the city of ALEPPO. In addition, disturbing reports have emerged out of AFRIN of civilian deaths and injuries including restrictions on civilian movement as a result of ongoing TURKISH military operations. Ironically, TURKEY has rejected international calls for it to suspend the AFRIN assault in line with a U.N. ceasefire, which does not apply to ISIS, al-Qaeda or others deemed terrorists by the U.N. Security Council. However, TURKEY insists that the KURDISH YPG are an extension of the terrorist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) regardless of the fact that the KURDISH YPG was the U.S. ally in the U.S. war against ISIS. IRAQ News As a friendly reminder, IRAQI and ALLIED forces have pushed ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces first liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety subsequent to ALLIANCE forces seizing complete control of western MOSUL from ISIS. It is important to note that IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS to the point of ISIS relinquishing control of MOSUL as the world watched the scenes of jubilation as IRAQI forces liberated the OLD MOSUL City from ISIS. However, with 40,000 plus dead in the battle to take back OLD MOSUL City from ISIS, the scale of civilian casualties reveals a massacre with many bodies still buried under the rubble and the level of human suffering immense. However, many ISIS militias have taken to the hills and began to wage a classic rural guerrilla war, while some ISIS sleeper cells have also been activated at the border of Baghdad, the IRAQI capital. Thus, ISIS has now returned to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group as the Islamic State of IRAQ and SYRIA can no longer call itself a state as ISIS has lost all capacity to act as a state but rather ISIS now stands exposed as a GANGSTER sham. On the heels of the IRAQI military victory in MOSUL, IRAQI forces broke through ISIS’s defences inside the northern city of TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL-QAIM as IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared victory over ISIS. In addition, IRAQI pro-government forces completed their long awaited operation to completely destroy ISIS’s caliphate in IRAQ with their campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants. In particular, IRAQI forces recaptured the last bastion of ISIS in IRAQ as soldiers, police, Sunni tribesmen and mostly Shia paramilitary fighters took part in the assault on RAWA in the Euphrates river valley close to the border with SYRIA. Meanwhile this week, TURKISH Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu says that TURKEY and IRAQ could conduct a joint military operation against KURDISH rebels in IRAQ that could start after IRAQ holds its elections on May 12. As a friendly reminder, the KURDS still consider the September 25 referendum victory as the culmination of decades of struggle for a KURDISH state of their own although the IRAQI government has clearly stated that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. However, after the votes were tallied and the referendum passed with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, Iraq’s top SHIITE cleric out right rejected the outcome of KURDISTAN’s independence vote despite the overwhelming 92% voting in favour of separating from IRAQ. Subsequently, IRAQI forces along with IRANIAN trained paramilitaries deployed heavy weaponry build up in KIRKUK, the jewel of the proposed future KURDISTAN state enabling IRAQI forces to take control of all major areas of KIRKUK province from KURDISH YPG fighters. In particular, IRAQI forces took ALTON KUPRI, the oil-rich province of KURDISTAN as rocket; artillery and heavy machine-gun fire erupted in the region. Subsequently, IRAQI Kurdish authorities stated that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession. However, the KURDS also stated that this decision must become a basis for starting an inclusive national dialogue between KURDISTAN and IRAQ to resolve all disputes through implementation of all constitutional articles and in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution because all elements of the IRAQI Constitution must be respected in order to secure the unity of IRAQ. Meanwhile, this week, KURDISH politicians considered a total withdrawal from the IRAQI political arena after the IRAQI parliament approved the 2018 budget with a reduced share for the KURDISH autonomous region. The move form the KURDISH politicians comes after boycotts from KURDISH representatives in relentless protests at the reduction of KURDISTAN’s share from 17% to nearly 12%. The current situation clearly depicts the new realities in IRAQ whereby relations between IRAQ and KURDISTAN have deteriorated following KURDISTAN’s vote on independence from IRAQ in a popular referendum in September. Further, highlighting the division was IRAQ accusing KURDISTAN of corruption in handling oil exports from fields under the KURDISTAN region’s control while IRAQ also went so far as to suggest that revenues could be sufficient to satisfy KURDISTAN expenses otherwise which the KURDISTAN government obviously refuted. SYRIA News As a friendly reminder, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH have made remarkable progress in the DEIR AL-ZOR region over the last several months liberating most of the province that was previously occupied by ISIS. Most recently, SAA units have made their way across several kilometers of territory south of the provincial capital of DEIR AL-ZOR striking ISIS in AL-MAYADEEN, ISIS’s new de facto capital in SYRIA. Therefore, the Russian Defence Ministry now estimates that the ISIS terrorist group controls less than five per cent of SYRIA after losing large swathes of territory to the SDF opposition fighters; the U.S. led coalition, the SAA and Russian allied forces. However, ISIS still controls several towns along the eastern and western banks of the EUPHRATES River. Among the occupied areas still under ISIS control are a group of towns that are located along the EUPHRATES River Valley including AL-ASHARAH, ABU HAMMAM, HAJEEN, AL-JALA and SOUSAH. However, the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declared that they have completely wiped out ISIS in Syria. Meanwhile, this week, TURKISH artillery continued to fire into SYRIA’s AFRIN region using air power, artillery and ground troops that has alarmed the U.S. that has supported the KURDISH YPG in fighting against ISIS in northern Syria. Meanwhile, IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani, a staunch ally of the SYRIAN regime, has denounced the TURKISH invasion of AFRIN stating that any foreign intervention needs authorization from the SYRIAN regime. Meanwhile, the SYRIAN militias entering AFRIN are believed to be IRANIAN trained such that their presence would put IRANIAN proxies on the border with TURKEY and strengthen IRAN’s foothold in the area. However, this week President Recep Tayyip Erdogan clearly stated that TURKEY is definitely not there to occupy AFRIN but to clear the territory from the KURDISH YPG who want to occupy this territory and to hand it back to its real owners, the Free Syrian Army (FSA). President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s announcement came after TURKEY announced that TURKEY’s troops liberated the HALLUBI KABIR village in AFRIN’s northeast while taking control of a dam that provides water to the AZAZ and AFRIN regions. Turkey also claims to have taken control of the town of JANDARIS but the U.S. backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) claim that the fighting is still ongoing. The SDF also stated that TURKEY was exposing the KURDS to systematic annihilation in AFRIN with different types of weapons and airstrikes and that SDF forces would continue to defend the region from the relentless TURKISH onslaught. As a friendly reminder, after U.S. backed fighters had surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA, they finally managed to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. Fighters of the U.S. backed, KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) punched their way through ISIS lines in RAQQA city as KURDISH forces literally shot their way through the streets of RAQQA, concentrating fire on ISIS positions hidden in the urban ruin of RAQQA city while ISIS fought back hard. Meanwhile, witnesses of the aftermath of the battle for RAQQA duly noted that the victory celebrations by KURDISH forces felt muted as there were literally no civilians left in RAQQA such that it was the celebration of the liberation of a ghost town. However, Syrians hoping to return home to RAQQA now that RAQQA has been liberated from ISIS are being told to wait indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby some have already taken their toll in terms of human casualties. Nonetheless, the current SYRIAN government under the control of President Bashar al-Assad stated that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA, which was liberated from ISIS by the U.S. backed and KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In particular, the existing SYRIAN regime stated that both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime. Meanwhile, more than 100 people have been killed this week in the besieged SYRIAN enclave of EASTERN GHOUTA since the UN Security Council unanimously called for a month-long ceasefire. Ironically, air strikes by the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) have hit DOUMA in SYRIA’s rebel-held EASTERN GHOUTA just after 13 trucks of food aid crossed into the enclave heading for the town. In less than two weeks, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has retaken nearly all of the farmland in EASTERN GHOUTA, under the cover of near endless shelling and air strikes, leaving only a handful of towns still under Free Syrian Army (FSA) control representing approximately half the enclave of EASTERN GHOUTA bringing the death toll to over 1,000 since February 18, 2018. TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions As a friendly reminder, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the KURDS as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKEY hammered the KURDS in AFRIN as TURKEY’s military offensive in SYRIA against the U.S. backed KURDISH militias has driven civilians underground in what from the KURDISH perspective appears to be a massacre. In my opinion, TURKEY continued this week with their siege of AFRIN as the TURKISH army and associated Free Syrian Army (FSA) militias know very well that without reinforcements, the KURDISH YPG are outnumbered on the ground while the TURKISH air force has exclusive control over the skies in the region at the current time. Therefore, the KURDISH allied SYRIAN Arab militias statement that they would be redeploying around 1,700 fighters from war fronts against ISIS to the AFRIN region to help fight off the TURKISH offensive represents the only viable alternative for the KURDISH YPG to hold back the TURKISH offensive. In my opinion, this situation in AFRIN is deplorable as significant resources are now being redeployed from battlefield fronts elsewhere focusing on ISIS in SYRIA and thus opening the possibility for an ISIS emergence upon previously liberated territories. In regards to the U.S. having its hands tied as although the U.S. previously supported the KURDISH YPG led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in its war against ISIS, the U.S. does not want to go to war directly with TURKEY who continues to be a U.S. NATO ally, time will tell what transpires as TURKEY now seems to be acting unilaterally without consulting any of its NATO allies. However, in my opinion, if TURKEY eventually launches a military operation against the KURDISH YPG in MANBIJ, only 100 kilometres east of AFRIN, where the U.S. has about 2,000 soldiers, TURKEY will in essence force the U.S. to make a tough decision of withdrawing U.S. troops or retaliating in self defence. In my opinion, the U.S. needs to hold its positions in MANBIJ and advise TURKEY accordingly that the situation in MANBIJ must be resolved diplomatically through negotiations as the KURDISH YPG has not attacked TURKEY nor has it expressed any interest to attack TURKEY directly such that this aggressive attack by TURKEY on the KURDISH YPG is excessive and unnecessary given that the KURDISH YPG were willing to negotiate with TURKEY in order to avoid a bloodbath. In regards to TURKEY rejecting international calls for it to suspend the AFRIN assault as TURKEY insists that the KURDISH YPG are an extension of the terrorist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) regardless of the fact that the KURDISH YPG was the U.S. ally in the U.S. war against ISIS, this attack by TURKEY and the FSA appears to be more along the lines of revenge as opposed to actual terrorist threats. In my opinion, the TURKEY offensive is really meant to resolve territorial disputes between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels and KURDISH YPG forces as the KURDISH YPG were able to take control of most of this SYRIAN territory by securing U.S. support in exchange for filling the security void created by ISIS. However, in my opinion, now that ISIS has literally disappeared from northern SYRIA, TURKEY wants to insure that the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels retake their share of the disputed territories. In my opinion, the current situation in AFRIN depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby there is a persistent, perpetual and relentless jockeying for money, power and control whereby territorial disputes that cannot be resolved through negotiations must be resolved through force such that the most effective method to justify an offensive is by utilizing the terrorist card to bypass all international laws and regulations while legitimizing military operations that have no underlying justification other than a desire to control additional territories currently controlled by the opposition resulting in complex, dysfunctional and degenerative relationships as part of the never ending Hunger Games of the mentally insane. IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions As a friendly reminder, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after over one year of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power. Now that the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly transferred from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred to as TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL-QAIM in a lightening fast military offensive. In regards to the IRAQI forces campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants, Western ANBAR is the last region in IRAQ where ISIS held extensive stretches of territories. It is important to note that Iraqi government forces have now driven ISIS out of about 95% of the land ISIS once held in IRAQ and freed more than 4.4 million IRAQIS from ISIS rule. In my opinion, RAWA and the nearby Syrian border town of ALBU KAMAL are of strategic importance to ISIS as the group used routes through these locations to transfer fighters, weapons and goods. Therefore, the towns are also symbolically important because they made up ISIS’s self-declared, cross-border EUPHRATES PROVINCE that was a symbol of ISIS’s intention to eradicate all of the region’s borders between IRAQ and SYRIA. Therefore, since MOSUL was declared free, IRAQI security forces continue to comb western MOSUL areas for hidden ISIS cells despite the victory over ISIS as ISIS is still considered to be a significant security threat even after ISIS’s defeat at its main havens across IRAQI provinces. Therefore, KURDISH and IRAQI forces still need to be vigilant for ISIS reunions to launch attacks through small covert groups of suicide attackers. In my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Hider al-Abadi’s announcement of full liberation of IRAQI lands with an official declaration of an end of the war against ISIS is accurate in theory but not in practice as significant ISIS fighters are still hiding underground like rats. In my opinion, this week’s announcement that TURKEY and IRAQ could conduct a joint military operation against KURDISH rebels in IRAQ that could start after IRAQ holds its elections on May 12 is not surprising, as TURKEY has frequently launched cross-border operations into the northern IRAQ region against KURDISH militants from the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) who maintain bases there. In my opinion, the plans for a joint offensive between TURKEY and IRAQ is also not surprising as both countries strongly opposed the September 25 referendum in IRAQ’s KURDISTAN region that resulted in a yes vote for the separation of KURDISTAN from IRAQ. Therefore, both TURKEY and IRAQ now share the common goal of weakening the KURDISH military force in IRAQ by focusing on the KURDISH PKK that is an easy target as the KURDISH PKK is considered a terrorist organization by TURKEY, the U.S. and the E.U. However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS. As a friendly reminder, it is still my opinion that after the IRAQI KURDS referendum on independence on September 25, 2017, the IRAQI KURDS still have the right to pursue their independence pursuant to the majority win by the KURDS with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, albeit the fact that the IRAQI government claims that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. In my opinion, the IRAQI KURDS still need to negotiate with the IRAQI government to respect the IRAQI constitution such that although the KURDISH vote was a clear indication of majority support for separation, the September 25 referendum only serves a symbolic victory thus far, as it cannot be supported legally without further negotiations with the IRAQI government. It is important to note that although KURDISH leaders were willing to use the referendum results as an opening bid in negotiations with IRAQ over expanded autonomy, federal forces responded by retaking KIRKUK and other disputed areas outside the KURDS’ autonomous region with limited bloodshed as most KURDISH forces withdrew without a fight although scattered clashes did break out. However, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. In my opinion, this week’s KURDISH politicians considering a total withdrawal from the IRAQI political arena after the IRAQI parliament approved the 2018 budget with a reduced share for the KURDISH autonomous region were inevitable. In my opinion, the KURDISH governments’ demands that the IRAQI government allocate 17% of the IRAQI budget as had been the case since the new IRAQI government was formed after the U.S. led invasion is reasonable. IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has insisted that the KURDISH share should be less, in proportion to the KURDISH population, that the IRAQI government estimates to be at 12.6%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stated that the proposed amount is not enough to cover the needs of the KURDISTAN Region in 2018. In my opinion, the IRAQI government cut the KURDISH share of the budget in early 2014 because of KURDISTAN’s plans to export oil to the international markets independent of IRAQ which is no longer the case such that the budget cut has caused an ongoing financial crisis that further worsened after the KURDISTAN Region lost control of the KIRKUK oil fields to IRAQI forces in October. In my opinion, the 17% demand by the KURDISH government is reasonable as at least 17% of IRAQI soil is covered with KURDISH blood such that the KURDS earned their 17% share through blood, sweat and tears as the KURDISH forces held back ISIS forces from conquering IRAQ in its entirety while IRAQI forces were scrambling and nowhere to be seen. In my opinion, these are challenging times for the KURDISH region such that KURDISH frustrations are understandable but the KURDISH extremist violence is never acceptable so that the KURDS need to conduct their protests peacefully. In my opinion, the KURDISH government has exercised commendable restraint to avoid a full fledge civil war bloodbath with recent concessions made by the KURDISH government to the IRAQI government that clearly demonstrates that the KURDS desire to reach a peaceful negotiated settlement to this conflict. Therefore, I am now convinced more than ever that constructive dialogue can begin between the KURDISH and IRAQI governments that will result in a peaceful long-term sustainable solution. SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions As a friendly reminder, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, it finally does appear that ISIS has been defeated in DEIR AL-ZOR, AL-MAYADEEN and AL-BUKAMAL albeit violent clashes that sporadically continue to erupt around the town as ISIS finds itself trapped like rats underground only to be swept to the surface as the SAA goes through their respective sweeping operations across the outskirts of town. However, with the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declaring that they have completely wiped out ISIS in SYRIA, I expect that the remaining ISIS militants will be hiding in small towns and villages along the border with IRAQ in the SYRIAN dessert such that the remaining portion of no mans land along the Middle Euphrates River Valley will most likely represent ISIS’s last stand. In my opinion, ISIS still controls thousands of square kilometres of desert in the DEIR AL-ZOR, HOMS, IDLIB and DARAA regions such that although ISIS has been forced out of major SYRIAN cities, ISIS is still able to stage attacks on SAA and other rebel forces from these desert areas such that victory may have been achieved albeit ISIS still existing as a thorn in everybodies sides. However, this week, I was surprised to see TURKISH artillery continuing to fire into SYRIA’s AFRIN region out of pure infuriation over the announcement of U.S. plans to train a 30,000 border force in the area of northern SYRIA where KURDISH YPG dominated forces drove out ISIS fighters last year while TURKEY now promises to strangle the KURDISH terrorist force before it is ever able to come into existence. Meanwhile, in my opinion, if the only option the KURDISH YPG has to repel the TURKISH attack on AFRIN are the SYRIAN militias who are believed to be IRANIAN trained, so be it, as long as they can get the job done to stave off TURKEY’s attempts at an invasion. In my opinion, the SYRIANS need to regain control of their own country and decide on their own future in unison such that a united stand between the SYRIAN Regime and the KURDISH YPG may force TURKEY to stand down and come back to the negotiating table on behalf of the FSA to once and for all put an end to this insane bloodbath. Nonetheless, this week TURKEY pressed ahead with its mission and entered the center of the KURDISH held SYRIAN city of AFRIN resulting in a further escalation of violence in northwest SYRIA. In my opinion, the TURKISH forces are standing strong with TURKISH air force backing such that they have been able to surround AFRIN from all sides with a clear goal of conquering AFRIN. Unfortunately, four branches of the SDF, which had been fighting ISIS in Syria were transferred from east of the Euphrates River to AFRIN to join the pro-SYRIAN government fighters as part of a deal between the SYRIAN regime and the KURDISH forces. However, in my opinion, TURKEY’s warning of disastrous consequences should Syrian Arab Army (SAA) government forces intervene in AFRIN cannot be ignored as TURKEY seems adamant about recapturing ARFIN with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) such that consequences of the SAA entering the battle will trigger a full fledge showdown. Nonetheless, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) may have no choice but to intervene should the KURDISH YPG, SDF forces and pro-SYRIAN government IRANIAN militias be unable to hold their ground as TURKEY cannot continue to operate unilaterally with military operations to seize territory when the KURDISH YPG are ready, willing and able to negotiate via their U.S. allies to reach some sort of a sensible reasonable accommodation solution. In regards to the Syrian city of RAQQA, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires. In my opinion, now in its seventh year, the war in SYRIA has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society. Nonetheless, this week, it was sad to see the war in SYRIA entering into a dangerous new phase as EASTERN GHOUTA under attack by SYRIAN Regime forces on so-called SYRIAN rebel terrorists is a human tragedy that is unfolding before everybodies eyes such that in my opinion the international community cannot let things keep going in this horrendous fashion. As a friendly reminder, in some of the worst bombardment campaigns of the war in SYRIA, over five hundred people have been killed and over four thousand have been injured in EASTERN GHOUTA, a Free Syrian Army (FSA) held enclave that is home to about 400,000 people that borders the SYRIAN capital of Damascus. In my opinion, an end to the fighting would allow the evacuation of hundreds of people who require urgent treatment as well as allowing humanitarian aid to reach the region. However, as was seen this week, air strikes on DOUMA as aid convoys entered the area is part of a larger trend whereby 67 attacks on health facilities in the first two months of 2018 have been formally documented. In my opinion, the problem with EASTERN GHOUTA is that the rebels do not represent one cohesive group but rather consist of multiple factions, including Jihadists, such that in fighting between them has led to past losses of territory to the SYRIAN Arab Army (SAA). In my opinion, President Bashar al-Assad wants to recapture EASTERN GHOUTA because it is so close to DAMASCUS, the capital of SYRIA, that it is possible for rebels to fire mortars into the heart of the capital, which has previously led to hundreds of civilian deaths. In my opinion, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, as ISIS literally disappears from the face of the map in SYRIA, the question has become whether a race to conquer the oil rich regions could result in a showdown between the international coalitions consisting of the U.S. and SDF forces on the one side and the RUSSIAN and SAA forces on the other and/ or TURKEY on the one hand and KURDISH YPG and SAA forces on the other. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS such that this war could very well continue for years to come if RUSSIA is not given mediator powers to negotiate a deal between all Parties. In my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and madness.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 289” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the current situation in AFRIN depicts how there is a persistent, perpetual and relentless jockeying for money, power and control whereby territorial disputes that cannot be resolved through negotiations must be resolved through force such that the most effective method to justify an offensive is by utilizing the terrorist card to bypass all international laws and regulations while legitimizing military operations that have no underlying justification other than a desire to control additional territories currently controlled by the opposition resulting in complex, dysfunctional and degenerative relationships as part of the never ending Hunger Games of the mentally insane.
http://www.therockswebmarket.com/world-peace-lennon-ivan-style-part-289
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