World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 246

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 246 

During the week ending on Sunday, May 14, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants. Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as Turkey threatened to step up military action against SYRIAN KURDISH fighters allied with the U.S. after the U.S. administration under President Donald Trump decided to directly arm the KURDS for an assault on the SYRIAN city of RAQQA. The warning was delivered to senior U.S. national security officials in a series of closed-door meetings after the U.S. administration under President Donald Trump expressed its intent to arm the KURDS following months of deliberations. It is important to note that TURKEY has already conducted limited strikes against the U.S. backed KURDISH fighters in northern SYRIA in recent weeks but TURKEY could increase the tempo of those strikes if TURKEY so chooses. Although U.S. officials have complained bitterly to TURKEY about the TURKISH airstrikes that have targeted the principal U.S. partner in SYRIA in the fight against ISIS, TURKEY reserved the right to take further military action against the KURDS. Furthermore, TURKISH officials were fuming at the seams with public anger against the U.S. decision to arm the KURDS a week or so ahead of a state visit to Washington by TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and US-led ALLIANCE forces continued with their offensive against ISIS on MOSUL as IRAQI and ALLIED forces managed to push ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces appear to have liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety. As a friendly reminder, MOSUL is divided by the Tigris River with both east and west sides respectively making up about half of the population of MOSUL. Elite ALLIANCE forces managed to fight through an elaborate defense system formed by ISIS over the past two years, that kept ALLIANCE forces out while contemporaneously keeping the residents of MOSUL trapped in as captives, by recapturing east MOSUL in its entirety while being at the cusp of controlling west MOSUL in the short-term. On a positive note, this week in a series of lightning fast advances, ALLIANCE forces seized further control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS, whereby General Othman al-Ghanimi stated that he hoped that ISIS would be defeated in MOSUL city before the ISLAMIC holy month of RAMADAN that begins on Friday, May 26, 2017. It now appears that recent gains from the north of MOSUL mean that the remaining ISIS militants are being squeezed into an ever-smaller area as fewer than 1,000 ISIS militants are now besieged in several north-western districts, including the Old MOSUL City, along with as many as 450,000 civilians. The IRAQI security forces are now carrying out a big and effective effort from a new front from the north of MOSUL after their advance into the densely-populated Old MOSUL City were stalled by ISIS from the south and west. After a slow start by IRAQI forces from the north that were initially limited by fierce resistance from ISIS militants using suicide car bombs and snipers gains are now being made as IRAQI forces have stormed entrances to the IQTISADIYEEN district, south-east of MUSHAIRFA, and killed dozens of ISIS militants in heavy clashes. 

Moving on to SYRIA, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire peace process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks. Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN regime carried out the chemical attacks. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA signed an agreement at the SYRIAN cease-fire talks in KAZAKHSTAN calling for the creation of four de-escalation zones in SYRIA that represent the latest attempt by all key players in the region to reduce the violence in SYRIA including the commitment by President Bashar al-Assad that the SYRIAN air force will halt flights over the designated areas in SYRIA. Unfortunately, the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been received with mixed reactions by SYRIAN residents of the affected areas as while some SYRIAN residents were optimistic that the cease-fire deal would benefit civilians, others expressed doubt over its sustainability with distrust of RUSSIA and IRAN who were instrumental in bringing the cease-fire to fruition. Although SYRIAN residents agreed on the need for the four de-escalation zones located mainly in opposition-held areas of SYRIA covering the provinces of Damascus, Idlib, Latakia, Aleppo, Homs, Hama, Deraa and Quneitra, the SYRIAN residents expressed distrust of the cease-fire deal on the basis that the SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad was just buying more time to continue with their ultimate goal of destroying the SYRIAN opposition movement. On a positive note, U.S. backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a KURDISH and Arab force, recaptured the key SYRIAN city of TABQAH, the TABQAH DAM and a nearby airfield from ISIS as 70 ISIS terrorists surrendered to the U.S. led international coalition leaving heavy weapons behind them. 

In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders. 

Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Ironically, TURKEY also threatened to step up military action against SYRIAN KURDISH fighters allied with the U.S. after the U.S. administration under President Donald Trump decided to directly arm the KURDS for an assault on ISIS in the SYRIAN city of RAQQA. In my opinion, any further military action by TURKEY could potentially complicate the offensive on RAQQA, ISIS’s symbolic capital and ISIS’s last major stronghold in SYRIA after the IRAQI city of MOSUL that is currently besieged by U.S. backed IRAQI forces squeezing ISIS slowly but surely out of MOSUL. In my opinion, TURKEY sending forces into northern SYRIA could divert the KURDISH fighters away from the RAQQA battle with ISIS and into a battle with TURKEY. As a friendly reminder, TURKEY views the U.S. backed YPG, also known as the Syrian KURDISH People’s Protection Units as a threat to TURKEY because the KURDISH YPG, which dominates a U.S. supported coalition force known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), is affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party. The Kurdistan Workers’ Party, known as the PKK, has fought a decades-long insurgency against TURKEY and is classified as a terrorist group by both TURKEY and the U.S. However, the YPG has not engaged in terrorist activities with the PKK against TURKEY while the YPG has essentially refused to fight directly against the PKK on the basis that the PKK’s recent focus shifted to the war against ISIS. In my opinion, TURKEY shattered a previously negotiated ceasefire with the KURDISH PKK back in July of 2015 when TURKEY launched a dual anti-terror offensive against ISIS militants in SYRIA and the PKK in northern IRAQ and southeast TURKEY. But the campaign has overwhelmingly focused on the KURDISH militants, who have ripped up a 2013 ceasefire deal with TURKEY. Meanwhile, the Syrian KURDISH militia, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), which TURKEY says are an offshoot of the PKK, have been battling ISIS, winning the respect from the U.S. and its allies. Notwithstanding, TURKISH officials have regularly expressed anger over U.S. reporting for allegedly ignoring the suffering caused by the PKK’s three-decade armed struggle that has claimed over 40,000 lives. In my opinion, this PKK-TURKISH conflict demonstrates the sheer complexity of the geopolitical landscape in the region whereby there is so much bad blood dating back several decades that continues to resurface to overshadow the real primary threat in the region which is ISIS. However, the reality of the modern world geopolitical landscape is a chess like game of personal, financial and political interests such that it is impossible to satisfy all needs of all parties, in the region, such that difficult decisions must be made and the potential inadvertent adverse consequences must be accepted. In my opinion U.S. President Donald Trump has made the right decision to arm the KURDS for an assault on ISIS in the SYRIAN city of RAQQA as when all hell first broke loose as a result of ISIS and everybody including the IRAQI and SYRIAN military ran for their lives, the KURDS charged ISIS and managed to contain the spread of ISIS. In my opinion, the KURDISH YPG represent the heart of the ISIS resistance and were instrumental in containing ISIS from the outset when nobody else was ready, willing and able to fight against ISIS such that the KURDISH YPG have earned the respect of the U.S. and many of its allies including myself. In regards to TURKEY’s protests against the arming of the KURDS for an assault on ISIS in the SYRIAN city of RAQQA, TURKEY should not interfere and strike the KURDISH YPG as the KURDISH YPG have gone out of their way to avoid direct confrontations with TURKEY other than self-defence when the KURDISH YPG have been attacked first by TURKEY and the YPG continue to desire to avoid all military confrontations with TURKEY to the extent possible. 

Moving on to IRAQ, the recent successful attacks on ISIS by IRAQI security forces in MOSUL, has clearly sent the message to ISIS that it is just a matter of time until the ISIS Empire in MOSUL dies. However, the IRAQI led troops on the ground are essentially forced to fight ISIS style, which is slow and brutal for any other type of heavy artillery attack on ISIS, will result in significant collateral damage in terms of human casualties. Therefore, the ALLIANCE forces recapture of eastern MOSUL in its entirety has triggered a lightning fast momentum as ALLIANCE forces managed to seize control of major parts of Western MOSUL although in my opinion, the last of the fighting will most probably be a lot more difficult. In my opinion, ISIS will cling on to the oldest parts of MOSUL city where streets are narrow making it hard to manoeuvre military convoys and thus increasing the risk of ambushes and civilian casualties. Therefore, it is not surprising to see that ALLIANCE forces are having a difficult time to fully retake control of central MOSUL’s OLD CITY but this struggle is unfortunately necessary to secure the entire province of MOSUL such that patience is of utmost importance as ALLIANCE forces must continue with their relentless yet prudent attacks until ALL ISIS snipers have been eliminated. In regards to the new IRAQI offensive from the northwest of MOSUL against ISIS that gained new momentum with an armoured IRAQI force advancing into MOSUL city, this represents a strategic victory by IRAQI forces as located in the vicinity is the GRAND AL-NURI Mosque which has become a hugely symbolic prize as it is the mosque where ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi made a rare public appearance back in July of 2014 and declared ISIS’s caliphate after ISIS seized around one-third of IRAQ by sheer and brutal force. In my opinion, it is precisely because of the symbolic nature of the GRAND AL-NURI Mosque that the fight for Mosul’s west has been slow and deadly to IRAQI forces and civilians caught in the crossfire with ISIS. I believe that regardless of the IRAQI casualties, there is no other viable option to lift the ISIS siege of the OLD MOSUL CITY than what the IRAQI forces are currently trying to accomplish which is to completely surround the OLD MOSUL CITY before launching an operation to clear it in its entirety from ISIS. Therefore, after more than six months of fighting that has killed and wounded more than 8,000 civilians with over 420,000 people having been forced to flee western MOSUL alone since the fighting began, there does appear to be a light of hope at the end of the tunnel for the hundreds of thousands of people still trapped inside MOSUL neighbourhoods under ISIS control. Therefore, as IRAQI units continue to push forward on all fronts, there is new hope that ISIS can be defeated in MOSUL city before the ISLAMIC holy month of RAMADAN that begins on Friday, May 26, 2017. In my opinion, assuming that the KURDISH peshmerga, IRAQI army, SHIITE militia and some SUNNI militia forces continue to overlook their differences and stick together, ISIS will inevitably be decimated in IRAQ, although ISIS will likely survive as an incognito terrorist organization throughout the world. In my opinion, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. 

Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's future should be off the agenda for now and the main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace. 

In regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad signed a cease-fire agreement that establishes four de-escalation zones. However, the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been received with mixed reactions by SYRIAN residents on the basis that the SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad was just buying more time to continue with their ultimate goal of destroying the SYRIAN opposition movement. In my opinion, everybody including the SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad is exhausted from the SYRIN war and thus most people on all sides of the SYRIAN conflict, except for the terrorists, want the fighting and the air strikes to stop once and for all as the SYRIAN conflict enters its seventh year with more than 465,000 people killed in the fighting, more than one million injured and more than twelve million displaced from their homes representing almost half of SYRIA’s pre-war population. Therefore, although all previous attempts at a cease-fire deal failed due to empty promises by ALL parties to the respective deals, I believe that this cease-fire deal stands the greatest chance for success as it comes on the heels of the realization of ALL parties to this conflict that the war cannot be ended by force such that some sort of sharing of power will ultimately be required before ALL of SYRIA is reduced to fire, brimstone and ashes. Therefore, SYRIA is at a point in its history where there has been enough war and bloodshed to conclude that the SYRIAN conflict cannot be resolved by force such that all key parties involved in the war must negotiate some kind of a peace deal to end the war in SYRIA once and for all. That being said, the war against the terrorist factions in SYRIA including ISIS, HAYAT TAHRIR AL-SHAM, JABHAT FATEH AL-SHAM, AL QAEDA, NUSRA FRONT, AHRAR AL-SHAM or ALL FULL OF SHIT GANGSTER SHAM who have zero interest in peace negotiations should not derail the cease-fire agreement. In regards to U.S. backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) recapturing the key SYRIAN city of TABQAH, in my opinion the successful recapture of TABQAH, located roughly 30 miles west of the ISIS stronghold of RAQQA, denies the ISIS terrorists a key coordination hub that had been used by ISIS since 2013 as a base for planning attacks after ISIS lost other territories in northern SYRIA. 

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 246” as the belief that MOSUL victory is critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace albeit distrust, animosity and hate as after seven plus years of relentless war fate with more than 465,000 people killed, 1 million injured and over 12 million displaced, safe to assume that earth cannot absorb any more blood of SYRIAN race. 

Spirit of John Lennon – Kurdish Guerrilla Song:  

May 14, 2017