Saturday, May 20, 2017
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 247
Moving
on to IRAQ, IRAQI and US-led ALLIANCE forces continued with their offensive
against ISIS on MOSUL as IRAQI and ALLIED forces managed to push ISIS militants
back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special
forces appear to have liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its
entirety. As a friendly reminder, MOSUL is divided by the Tigris River with
both east and west sides respectively making up about half of the population of
MOSUL. Elite ALLIANCE forces managed to fight through an elaborate defense
system formed by ISIS over the past two years, that kept ALLIANCE forces out
while contemporaneously keeping the residents of MOSUL trapped in as captives,
by recapturing east MOSUL in its entirety while being at the cusp of
controlling west MOSUL in the short-term. On a positive note, this week in a
series of lightning fast advances, ALLIANCE forces seized further control of most
of western MOSUL from ISIS as IRAQI General Yahya Rasool told a news conference
in Baghdad, IRAQ that ISIS now controls just slightly more than 10% of western
MOSUL. Unfortunately, facing defeat, ISIS has become increasingly ruthless in
its attempts to slow down ALLIANCE forces progress with the use of chemical
weapons as the war against ISIS took another turn for the worse even as
victory of the IRAQI forces appears within reach. However, another 200,000
people may be forced to flee their homes as the fighting in MOSUL intensifies in
addition to the nearly 700,000 people who have already been displaced from
MOSUL since U.S. backed IRAQI forces first launched their MOSUL offensive in
October of 2016 to retake MOSUL from ISIS. Although IRAQI forces have driven
ISIS out from most of MOSUL, IRAQI forces are still encountering heavy
resistance in densely populated WESTERN districts making it increasingly more
difficult to insure civilians receive the assistance and protection they need
to survive. However, on a positive note, IRAQI forces have invaded another
district in western MOSUL by recapturing about half of AL-NAJJAR as IRAQI F-16
fighter jets destroyed a booby-trapped workshop, killing several ISIS militants
in western MOSUL and destroying all weapons and explosive substances located on
site. IRAQI jets also destroyed two other ISIS locations, one of them used for
telecommunications and another one used as a bomb factory while taking over the
AL-RIFAIE district.
Moving
on to SYRIA, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers,
RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security
Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the
six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic
efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing
of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response
to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than
100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire
peace process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State
Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks.
Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed
on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN
regime carried out the chemical attacks. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed
for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week although TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA signed an
agreement at the SYRIAN cease-fire talks in KAZAKHSTAN last week calling for
the creation of four de-escalation zones in SYRIA that represent the latest attempt by
all key players in the region to reduce the violence in SYRIA including the
commitment by President Bashar al-Assad that the SYRIAN air force will halt
flights over the designated areas in SYRIA. Unfortunately, the new cease-fire
deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of violations
from the outset as the U.S. sent its air force in to strike SYRIAN regime
vehicles that violated a de-escalation zone around AL-TANF where the Free
Syrian Army (FSA) has an army base with special forces training Syrian militias.
The SYRIAN regime violated the de-escalation zone two times before the U.S.
airstrikes although it still remains unclear as to why the SYRIANS violated the
zone. However, finally the tensions on the ground escalated as SYRIAN forces,
in several vehicles including at least one tank, were near the JORDANIAN border
and deemed a threat to coalition partners on the ground. Although the SYRIAN
forces were repeatedly ordered to stop their advance toward a de-escalation
zone, the SYRIAN forces ignored the warning from both COALITION and RUSSIAN
forces triggering fresh air strikes by the U.S. military. It appears that the
SYRIAN forces were building a fighting position about 55 kilometers from a U.S.
coalition base close to AT TANF where advisers train members of the Syrian
Democratic Forces and Syrian Arab Coalition such that the ground commander
called for the air strike as a matter of COALITION force protection.
Moving
on to IRAQ, the recent successful attacks on ISIS by IRAQI security forces in
MOSUL, has clearly sent the message to ISIS that it is just a matter of time
until the ISIS Empire in MOSUL dies. However, the IRAQI led troops on the
ground are essentially forced to fight ISIS style, which is slow and brutal for
any other type of heavy artillery attack on ISIS, will result in significant
collateral damage in terms of human casualties. Therefore, the ALLIANCE forces recapture of eastern MOSUL in its entirety has triggered a lightning fast
momentum as ALLIANCE forces managed to seize control of major parts of Western
MOSUL although in my opinion, the last of the fighting will most probably be a
lot more difficult. In my opinion, ISIS will cling on to the oldest parts of
MOSUL city where streets are narrow making it hard to manoeuvre military
convoys and thus increasing the risk of ambushes and civilian casualties.
Therefore, it
is not surprising to see that ALLIANCE forces are having a difficult time to
fully retake control of central MOSUL’s OLD CITY but this struggle is unfortunately
necessary to secure the entire province of MOSUL such that patience is of
utmost importance as ALLIANCE forces must continue with their relentless yet
prudent attacks until ALL ISIS snipers have been eliminated. In regards to the
new IRAQI offensives from the northwest of MOSUL against ISIS that were met
with fierce resistance including chemical attacks, it is my opinion that ISIS
will fight as dirty as possible to psychologically traumatize the IRAQI troops
until the very end. That is, ISIS now appears to be adopting a strategy whereby
ISIS has nothing left to lose other than their lives which they seem to welcome
with open arms such that ISIS will now look to inflict as many deep rooted
scars as possible on ALLIANCE forces to insure that although the ISIS name will
most likely completely disappear from MOSUL, the deep rooted ISIS inflicted scars
will remain over IRAQ in full. In my opinion, although another 200,000 people
may be forced to flee their homes as the fighting in MOSUL intensifies in addition
to the nearly 700,000 people who have already been displaced from MOSUL, with
over 16,000 ISIS fighters killed since the offensive commenced, ISIS has lost
more in terms of human life but not in terms of pain, agony and strife. Therefore,
as IRAQI units continue to push forward on all fronts, there is new hope that
ISIS can be defeated in MOSUL city before the ISLAMIC holy month of RAMADAN
that begins on Friday, May 26, 2017. In
my opinion, assuming
that the KURDISH peshmerga, IRAQI army, SHIITE militia and some SUNNI militia
forces continue to overlook their differences and stick together, ISIS will
inevitably be decimated in IRAQ, although ISIS will likely survive as an
incognito terrorist organization throughout the world. In my opinion, with ISIS
inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be
prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground
offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected
move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a
dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already
laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas,
carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to
bankroll future operations.
Moving
on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel
stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and
sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears
to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval
from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much
political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition
relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA
managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s
forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY
managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel
factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s
two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as
guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty
International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison
in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of
President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of
negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad's future should be off the agenda for now and the
main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections
as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to
implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace.
In
regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S.
President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK
cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S.
believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people
authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now
formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these
chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be
behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and
RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while
officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA
that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad watched as the cease-fire
agreement signed last week that establishes four de-escalation zones was
violated. In my opinion, the SYRIAN regime violated the de-escalation zones
primarily for reconnaissance missions to scout out the territories currently under
FSA control such that the U.S. air force reciprocated with moderate force
whereby the U.S. seemed to be more focused on the SYRIAN regime turning away
then entering into a game of firing back and forth play. That is, when 27 SYRIAN
regime vehicles drove within 18 miles of AL-TANF that breached the 34 mile
radius, the U.S. air force first attempted to scare the SYRIAN regime by flying
relatively low but when the convoy did not turn around, the U.S. air force hit
some of the vehicles with a couple of rounds. In addition, when an unarmed
Syrian SU-22 fighter-bomber entered the de-escalation zone, it was merely
intercepted by a pair of F-22 U.S. fighter aircrafts and forced to go. In
regards to SYRIAN
forces building a fighting position about 55 kilometers from a U.S. coalition
base close to AT TANF such that the ground commander called for an air strike
as a matter of COALITION force protection, in my opinion the movements by the
SYRIAN forces were aggressive such that the air strikes by the U.S. were
justified as the U.S. has the right to defend COALITION troops when opposing
forces take aggressive steps such as was the case in AT TANF. That being said, it is a
shame to once again see the SYRIAN regime and COALITION forces expending
significant time and resources on each other as opposed to focusing on the war
against the terrorist factions in SYRIA including ISIS, HAYAT TAHRIR AL-SHAM,
JABHAT FATEH AL-SHAM, AL QAEDA, NUSRA FRONT, AHRAR AL-SHAM or ALL FULL OF SHIT
GANGSTER SHAM who have zero interest in peace negotiations. In my opinion, the
provocative actions by the SYRIAN forces do not make sense with the commitments
recently made by the existing regime under President Bashar al-Assad such that
it is possible that the SYRIAN forces on the ground have taken matters into
their own hands in order to derail the cease-fire agreement.
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