Saturday, May 27, 2017
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 248
During the week ending on Sunday, May 28, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants. Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKEY blocked AUSTRIA from formally entering into the NATO cooperation with more than 40 partner countries in what is emerging as a diplomatic spat between TURKEY and AUSTRIA. Ironically, AUSTRIA has been prevented from taking part in NATO exercises or future NATO operations despite the fact that AUSTRIA has over 400 troops serving alongside NATO forces in KOSOVO. AUSTRIA accused TURKEY of endangering the security interests of EUROPE and branded TURKEY’s actions as irresponsible as the TURKISH government is believed to be acting in retaliation for AUSTRIAN moves to block TURKEY from joining the EU. Obviously, the Austrian defence minister, Hans-Peter Doskozil strongly condemned TURKEY's course of action in NATO as irresponsible behaviour against AUSTRIA that further strengthens AUSTRIA’s position that TURKEY is very far from being part of the EU and that TURKEY is endangering the security interests of Europe by blocking AUSTRIA’s ascension that will have long-term consequences on AUSTRIAN peace missions particularly in the Western Balkans.
Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and US-led ALLIANCE forces continued with their offensive against ISIS on MOSUL as IRAQI and ALLIED forces managed to push ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces appear to have liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety. As a friendly reminder, MOSUL is divided by the Tigris River with both east and west sides respectively making up about half of the population of MOSUL. Elite ALLIANCE forces managed to fight through an elaborate defense system formed by ISIS over the past two years, that kept ALLIANCE forces out while contemporaneously keeping the residents of MOSUL trapped in as captives, by recapturing east MOSUL in its entirety while being at the cusp of controlling west MOSUL in the short-term. On a positive note, this week in a series of lightning fast advances, ALLIANCE forces seized further control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS, as ISIS now seems to be forced to relocate its headquarters in IRAQ to ISIS’s stronghold town of HAWIJA, KIRKUK. HAWIJA has now become ISIS’s main haven as senior leaders entered the town in armoured vehicles after having fled battles with IRAQI forces elsewhere with ISIS militants cutting off a number of main roads and subjecting them to a strict curfew for security reasons. Ironically, infighting between ISIS members in KIRKUK have left one senior area ISIS leader dead, along with two other companions, who was the mayor of DIYALA and who was temporarily appointed by supreme leader ABU BAKR AL-BAGHDADI. Meanwhile, the U.S. led ALLIANCE has increased the number of bombs dropped on ISIS by about 50% this year, reflecting the progress U.S. backed ground forces have had in pushing ISIS militants out of key strongholds.
Moving on to SYRIA, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire peace process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks. Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN regime carried out the chemical attacks. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week although TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA signed an agreement at the SYRIAN cease-fire talks in KAZAKHSTAN last week calling for the creation of four de-escalation zones in SYRIA that represent the latest attempt by all key players in the region to reduce the violence in SYRIA including the commitment by President Bashar al-Assad that the SYRIAN air force will halt flights over the designated areas in SYRIA. Unfortunately, the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt albeit Russia and the U.S. continuing to discuss the situation in round-the-clock mode anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control. Meanwhile, the ISIS tentacles in SYRIA seem to be behind the recent massacre at the Manchester Arena in the UNITED KINGDOM (UK) whereby Salman Abedi was able to transport a nail bomb into Manchester Arena to massacre 22 people and injure over 120 additional innocent civilians. It seems that Salman Abedi returned from a visit to LIBYA just days before carrying out the Manchester attack and may have travelled to terrorist strongholds in SYRIA. It seems that ABEDI and his brother ISMAEL remained in the UK when their parents returned to LIBYA with the rest of the family four years ago but that travelled back and forth to war-torn LIBYA. Unfortunately, chaos has engulfed LIBYA since the BRITISH backed removal of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 that has left terrorist groups including ISIS battling for control. ISIS has gained a foothold in LIBYA, using LIBYA for terror training camps that were bombed by the US in January over intelligence fears that ISIS was actively planning terrorist operations against Europe. Therefore, it seems that ISIS radicalized ABEDI during his recent trip to LIBYA and SYRIA, if not before, such that ABEDI returned to the UK and fully executed the terrorist plot of bombing Manchester Arena.
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Ironically, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKEY blocked AUSTRIA from formally entering into the NATO cooperation with more than 40 partner countries whereby the TURKISH government is believed to be acting in retaliation for AUSTRIAN moves to block TURKEY from joining the EU. In my opinion, AUSTRIA is among President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s most outspoken EU critics whereby AUSTRIA has gone so far as to call for TURKEY ascension talks into the EU to be formally ended such that it is obvious that TURKEY is in essence extracting its vengeance by blocking AUSTRIA from formally entering the NATO alliance. That is, while AUSTRIA can block TURKISH ascension into the EU, the roles are reversed when it comes to NATO whereby the second largest military power in NATO consisting of TURKEY who is a full NATO member can block AUSTRIA ascension, as AUSTRIA is only a partner country. In my opinion, this is a perfect example of the geopolitical stage of the modern world of an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth whereby for every action there will ultimately be an equal and opposing reaction such that the geopolitical landscape has essentially become a giant chess field. That is, everybody from TURKEY to AUSTRIA to everybody else is now consistently, persistently and relentlessly taking decisions that suit their respective, personal, financial and political interests such that inevitably everybody carries grudges while patiently waiting for an opportunity to reciprocate diplomatically when in actuality it is flagrant vengeance settling of accounts debauchery. In regards to the Austrian defence minister strongly condemning TURKEY's course of action in NATO as irresponsible behaviour against AUSTRIA that will have long-term consequences on AUSTRIAN peace missions particularly in the Western Balkans, I agree with AUSTRIA that AUSTRIA is a key peace keeper in volatile regions of the Balkans such as KOSOVO such that TURKEY’s actions clearly go against the best interests of NATO. That being said, TURKEY is playing the new geopolitical chess game perfectly pretending to isolate AUSTRIA based on credentials when AUSTRIA is being isolated for holding back TURKEY from EU ascension. In my opinion, TURKEY is going to succeed in isolating AUSTRIA out of the NATO alliance with its sheer strength in NATO giving TURKEY veto power and setting another example of the new method of geopolitical operations whereby in simple English, “If you hurt me, I will just wait for an opportunity to hurt you equivalently, so be on your highest guard as diplomacy is now based on ability to reciprocate accordingly, regardless of virtuosity, which has been replaced with money talks, shit walks debauchery.”
Moving on to IRAQ, the recent successful attacks on ISIS by IRAQI security forces in MOSUL, has clearly sent the message to ISIS that it is just a matter of time until the ISIS Empire in MOSUL dies. However, the IRAQI led troops on the ground are essentially forced to fight ISIS style, which is slow and brutal for any other type of heavy artillery attack on ISIS, will result in significant collateral damage in terms of human casualties. Therefore, the ALLIANCE forces recapture of eastern MOSUL in its entirety has triggered a lightning fast momentum as ALLIANCE forces managed to seize control of major parts of Western MOSUL although in my opinion, the last of the fighting will most probably be a lot more difficult. In my opinion, ISIS will cling on to the oldest parts of MOSUL city where streets are narrow making it hard to manoeuvre military convoys and thus increasing the risk of ambushes and civilian casualties. Therefore, it is not surprising to see that ALLIANCE forces are having a difficult time to fully retake control of central MOSUL’s OLD CITY but this struggle is unfortunately necessary to secure the entire province of MOSUL such that patience is of utmost importance as ALLIANCE forces must continue with their relentless yet prudent attacks until ALL ISIS snipers have been eliminated. In regards to the new ISIS stronghold town of HAWIJA, KIRKUK, the infighting between ISIS members that left one senior area ISIS leader dead, along with two other companions, demonstrates that although ISIS is still able to regroup in smaller towns in IRAQ, ISIS leadership is growing increasingly more frustrated. In my opinion, ISIS frustrations are growing each and every day as senior members trade accusations on who is ultimately responsible for recent defeats and loss of ISIS militant lives triggering the killing amongst each other which is a sign that ISIS is no longer as unified as the days when IRAQ was under control of ISIS at all time highs. In regards to the U.S. led ALLIANCE increasing the number of bombs dropped on ISIS by about 50% this year, in my opinion this seems to be attributable to the increased pace of operations along with President Donald Trump giving battlefield commanders more authority to approve airstrikes and raids which has quickened response times. In my opinion, this efficiency and effectiveness of air strikes has the trademark of President Donald Trump whereby he has delegated authority to the right level to aggressively and in a timely manner move against enemy vulnerabilities. In my opinion, assuming that the KURDISH peshmerga, IRAQI army, SHIITE militia and some SUNNI militia forces continue to overlook their differences and stick together, ISIS will inevitably be decimated in IRAQ, although ISIS will likely survive as an incognito terrorist organization throughout the world. In my opinion, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations.
Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's future should be off the agenda for now and the main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace.
In regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad watched as the cease-fire agreement signed last week that establishes four de-escalation zones was violated. In my opinion, although the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt, I believe that RUSSIAN and U.S. round-the-clock discussions anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control should be welcomed as a positive development in fully implementing the de-escalation zones. In my opinion, it is better for RUSSIA and the U.S. to try to work together to implement something in terms of de-escalation zones as opposed to sitting back and insuring that both parties achieve nothing. That being said, it is a shame to once again see the SYRIAN regime and COALITION forces expending significant time and resources on each other as opposed to focusing on the war against the terrorist factions in SYRIA including ISIS, HAYAT TAHRIR AL-SHAM, JABHAT FATEH AL-SHAM, AL QAEDA, NUSRA FRONT, AHRAR AL-SHAM or ALL FULL OF SHIT GANGSTER SHAM who have zero interest in peace negotiations. In regards to ISIS tentacles in SYRIA appearing to be behind the recent massacre at the Manchester Arena in the UNITED KINGDOM (UK) whereby Salman Abedi was able to transport a nail bomb into Manchester Arena to massacre 22 people and injure over 120 additional innocent civilians, this is the new reality of the modern day world in the sense that the terrorists are ready, willing and able to still execute such terrorist acts regardless of the security measures set-up to preserve EUROPE in tact. In my opinion, EUROPE will have to learn to live with this new terrorist threat as EUROPE is infested with sleeper cells that if given the opportunity will kill mercilessly as many innocent civilians as possible before going straight to hell themselves.
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