Saturday, June 3, 2017
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 249
During the week ending on Sunday, June 4, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants. Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKEY Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu made it clear that TURKEY will not open its INCIRLIK airbase to GERMAN lawmakers who want to meet GERMAN soldiers stationed there unless GERMANY takes some positive steps. However, GERMAN Chancellor Angela Merkel threatened TURKEY that GERMANY would withdraw soldiers from the airbase if GERMAN lawmakers were not allowed to visit. TURKEY reiterated that the base in the southern TURKISH province of KONYA is a NATO base but that INCIRLIK is solely a TURKISH base such that TURKEY has the final say on whether GERMAN lawmakers can visit INCIRLIK. Furthermore, TURKEY reiterated that GERMANY cannot take a hostile approach with TURKEY and that the days of GERMANY doing whatever GERMANY wants in TURKEY and getting whatever GERMANY wants from TURKEY are over after GERMANY’s negative attitude during TURKEY’s referendum that took place on April 16, 2017. As a friendly reminder, it appears that a last-minute decision by TURKEY’s electoral board to accept unstamped ballot papers created the risk of mass fraud. In addition, claims of vote rigging, especially in the KURDISH southeast, poured in while in a shocking assessment by observers from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the acceptance by TURKEY’s electoral board of unstamped ballot papers undermined an important safeguard and contradicted TURKISH laws. Unfortunately for TURKEY, there was no real decisive victor in this referendum with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan just crossing the 50% threshold by 1.4% which could very easily have been tainted with irregularities due to the controversial decision by the TURKISH electoral board to accept unstamped ballot papers such that GERMANY openly criticized TURKEY for these anomalies. Not surprisingly, GERMAN strong woman Chancellor Angela Merkel is now leading several EU countries to block TURKEY from hosting a NATO summit next year amid worsening relations with FRANCE, DENMARK and the NETHERLANDS backing the initiative to have a planned summit in TURKEY moved to NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium. In summary, eighteen of the NATO ALLIANCE’s European members and Canada are backing the demand as a message that the alliance will not give legitimacy to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s regime under his current authoritarian style of leadership. Ironically, RUSSIA agreed to lift most of the sanctions RUSSIA had imposed on TURKEY after the TURKISH military shot down a RUSSIAN fighter jet over the border with SYRIA over eighteen months ago as a sign of easing of tensions between RUSSIA and TURKEY after a long-running diplomatic spat that was seen as a test of resolve between the two strongmen, RUSSIA’s President Vladimir Putin and TURKEY’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and US-led ALLIANCE forces continued with their offensive against ISIS on MOSUL as IRAQI and ALLIED forces managed to push ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces appear to have liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety. As a friendly reminder, MOSUL is divided by the Tigris River with both east and west sides respectively making up about half of the population of MOSUL. Elite ALLIANCE forces managed to fight through an elaborate defense system formed by ISIS over the past two years, that kept ALLIANCE forces out while contemporaneously keeping the residents of MOSUL trapped in as captives, by recapturing east MOSUL in its entirety while being at the cusp of controlling west MOSUL in the short-term. On a positive note, this week in a series of lightning fast advances, ALLIANCE forces seized further control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS. Unfortunately with the impending ISIS defeat in MOSUL, ISIS resorted to another repugnant, vial and nasty terrorist strike whereby two car bomb attacks in the heart of the IRAQI capital of BAGHDAD killed at least 26 people and wounded dozens. The first strike happened at an ice cream shop in the KARRADA district whereby a crowd had broken their RAMADAN fasts while a few hours later there was a second blast near the SHUHADA BRIDGE. ISIS formally stated that both bombings had targeted gatherings of SHIA Muslims that ISIS considers as apostates subject to punishment by death.
Moving on to SYRIA, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire peace process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks. Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN regime carried out the chemical attacks. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week although TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA signed an agreement at the SYRIAN cease-fire talks in KAZAKHSTAN two weeks ago calling for the creation of four de-escalation zones in SYRIA that represent the latest attempt by all key players in the region to reduce the violence in SYRIA including the commitment by President Bashar al-Assad that the SYRIAN air force will halt flights over the designated areas in SYRIA. Unfortunately, the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt albeit Russia and the U.S. continuing to discuss the situation in round-the-clock mode anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control. Meanwhile, one of the founders of ISIS propaganda was reportedly killed in his hometown during an ALLIANCE airstrike in eastern SYRIA. That is, RAYAN MASH’AL was in his home in the city of AL-MAYADIN when ALLIANCE forces launched a bombing attack on the co-founder of the ISIS media division known as A’MAQ news agency. In regards to the US led offensive on ISIS in RAQQA, over 200,000 civilians have become homeless by the U.S. backed offensive since November with over 160,000 in the last two months alone with a vast number living in the open, in tents, in their cars, or in camps. However, the U.S. government is not taking responsibility for displaced civilians, having handed over that responsibility to its chosen partners on the ground, led by the KURDISH militia. Meanwhile, the shadow wars raged on elsewhere in SYRIA as ISIS attacked the IRANIAN militia in Khan Touman as round after round of mortar fire pounded the town. As a friendly reminder, paramilitary units numbering the thousands were sent by IRAN in a mission kept very much in the shadows but that has played a key role in insuring the continuing survival of the regime under President Bashar al-Assad. This week, they were with SHIA IRAQI forces when they freed the final remaining YAZIDI villages occupied by ISIS including KOCHO which was the place of one of the most notorious atrocities of ISIS in which male residents were lined up and executed while the females were taken away to be sold as sex slaves.
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Ironically, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKEY blocked GERMANY from visiting INCIRLIK airbase to meet GERMAN soldiers stationed there on the basis that INCIRLIK is not a NATO base but rather solely a TURKISH base such that TURKEY has the final say on whether GERMAN lawmakers can visit INCIRLIK. Obviously, GERMAN Chancellor Angela Merkel threatened TURKEY that GERMANY would withdraw soldiers from the airbase if GERMANY was not allowed to visit but in my opinion this is just another perfect example of the new geopolitical landscape internationally predicated on personal, financial and political interests. That is, under the new rules of the game, the geo-political landscape has become one giant chess field whereby for every action, there is an equal and opposing reaction. Therefore, given GERMANY’s open criticism of the TURKISH regime for anomalies noted during TURKEY’s April 16, 2017 referendum, TURKEY has now exercised its legal right to restrict GERMAN access to TURKEY’s INCIRLIK air base. In my opinion, this new game of taking decisions that are legal but questionable on moral and ethical grounds is the new reality of the geo-political landscape whereby everybody respects the law but exercises no professional courtesy to the extent they carry a historic grudge. In regards to eighteen of the NATO ALLIANCE’s European members and Canada backing the demand of GERMAN strong woman Chancellor Angela Merkel to block TURKEY from hosting a NATO summit next year and to have the planned summit in TURKEY moved to NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, the NATO ALLIANCE has effectively sent the message that the ALLIANCE will not give legitimacy to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s regime under his current authoritarian style of leadership. In my opinion, this further illustrates the new dynamic behind the international geopolitical landscape whereby countries with common personal, financial and political interests now form tag teams like wrestlers in a handicap match to outnumber the deviant rebel to in essence force the opposition to submit. In regards to RUSSIA agreeing to lift most of the sanctions RUSSIA had imposed on TURKEY after the TURKISH military shot down a RUSSIAN fighter jet over the border with SYRIA over eighteen months ago, RUSSIA pounced on the opportunity to strengthen its ties with TURKEY after TURKEY was outnumbered by its EU counterparts regarding the upcoming NATO planned summit. In my opinion, this further illustrates the new geopolitical landscape whereby like wrestlers who share common opponents, unusual relationships are formed due to changes in circumstances whereby in essence the opposition of my opposition becomes my ally under the principal of “what have you done for me lately”. In summary, this weeks events as concerns TURKEY illustrates the new rules of the game on the geopolitical stage perfectly whereby the world has become one giant poker game with all parties playing the best hand that they can with the current cards in their hands such that everyone needs to learn to not hate the players but perhaps to hate the game.
Moving on to IRAQ, the recent successful attacks on ISIS by IRAQI security forces in MOSUL, has clearly sent the message to ISIS that it is just a matter of time until the ISIS Empire in MOSUL dies. However, the IRAQI led troops on the ground are essentially forced to fight ISIS style, which is slow and brutal for any other type of heavy artillery attack on ISIS, will result in significant collateral damage in terms of human casualties. Therefore, the ALLIANCE forces recapture of eastern MOSUL in its entirety has triggered a lightning fast momentum as ALLIANCE forces managed to seize control of major parts of Western MOSUL although in my opinion, the last of the fighting will most probably be a lot more difficult. In my opinion, ISIS will cling on to the oldest parts of MOSUL city where streets are narrow making it hard to manoeuvre military convoys and thus increasing the risk of ambushes and civilian casualties. Therefore, it is not surprising to see that ALLIANCE forces are having a difficult time to fully retake control of central MOSUL’s OLD CITY but this struggle is unfortunately necessary to secure the entire province of MOSUL such that patience is of utmost importance as ALLIANCE forces must continue with their relentless yet prudent attacks until ALL ISIS snipers have been eliminated. In regards to ISIS resorting to another repugnant, vial and nasty terrorist strike whereby two car bomb attacks in the heart of the IRAQI capital of BAGHDAD killed at least 26 people and wounded dozens, ISIS seems to only be able to mount such cowardly attacks on innocent civilians as on the battlefield of war amongst militia, ISIS is slowly but surely heading in the direction of impending defeat. In my opinion, there is not much anyone can really do to prevent such an attack as during RAMADAN, when MUSLIMS fast from dawn until sunset, many IRAQI residents stay up late and eat out at restaurants and cafes in BAGHDAD. Therefore, it is very difficult for the IRAQI military to pinpoint which car on the street in the vicinity may have explosive devices although dozens of people are known to be sitting on benches outside the popular AL-FAQMA ice cream parlour in KARRADA. In essence, the innocent victims chose to live free regardless of the inherent ISIS risk that will never disappear in its entirety which in my opinion is better than to be alive but living dead hiding beneath the ground in one’s shed for fear of an ISIS terrorist unleashing of led. In regards to ISIS formally stating that both bombings had targeted gatherings of SHIA Muslims that ISIS considers as apostates subject to punishment by death, this is just another example of the fanatism of the ISIS ideology as SHIA Muslim is the closest to SUNNI Muslim that a normal rational individual can comprehend as the root of both is MUSLIM based although their respective denominations parted ways similar to the CATHOLIC and PROTESTANT deviation days such that it is clear to me that ISIS is completely mentally insane. In my opinion, assuming that the KURDISH peshmerga, IRAQI army, SHIITE militia and some SUNNI militia forces continue to overlook their differences and stick together, ISIS will inevitably be decimated in IRAQ, although ISIS will likely survive as an incognito terrorist organization throughout the world. In my opinion, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations.
Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's future should be off the agenda for now and the main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace.
In regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad watched as the cease-fire agreement signed last week that establishes four de-escalation zones was violated. In my opinion, although the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt, I believe that RUSSIAN and U.S. round-the-clock discussions anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control should be welcomed as a positive development in fully implementing the de-escalation zones. In my opinion, it is better for RUSSIA and the U.S. to try to work together to implement something in terms of de-escalation zones as opposed to sitting back and insuring that both parties achieve nothing. That being said, it is a shame to once again see the SYRIAN regime and COALITION forces expending significant time and resources on each other as opposed to focusing on the war against the terrorist factions in SYRIA including ISIS, HAYAT TAHRIR AL-SHAM, JABHAT FATEH AL-SHAM, AL QAEDA, NUSRA FRONT, AHRAR AL-SHAM or ALL FULL OF SHIT GANGSTER SHAM who have zero interest in peace negotiations. However, on a positive note, RAYAN MASH’AL, co-founder of the ISIS media division known as A’MAQ news agency was killed in an airstrike by ALLIANCE forces as they hit at the heart of the ISIS social media empire. In my opinion, although RAYAN MASH’AL was psychotic, demented and delusional, he was extremely effective in social media channels to claim ISIS responsibility for terror attacks throughout the world. In my opinion, ISIS A’MAQ news agency has become ISIS’s fastest and most reliable source of information, used to post videos and claims of ISIS attacks while remaining online despite bans from social media platforms. Therefore, taking out one of the brains behind the ISIS media empire will undoubtedly hurt ISIS in the long run and degrade ISIS abilities and inspiration for future foreign attacks. In regards to the US led offensive on ISIS in RAQQA with over 200,000 civilians becoming homeless, whereby the U.S. government handed over responsibility to the KURDISH led militia, I believe there is no other viable alternative in the short-term. However, in my opinion, the U.S. government needs to oversee the operations of the KURDISH led militia to insure they do not enter into an ethnic cleansing campaign. In my opinion, during periods of martial law like the present, the KURDISH led militia needs to be monitored to insure that their policies and procedures do no violate international humanitarian rights. In my opinion, the recent requirements by the KURDISH militia whereby refugees can return to their homes only if they find a local sponsor, appears to set the bar high as the only other option is to exit the region such that this policy is borderline in terms of respecting International Humanitarian Laws such that the U.S. needs to intervene. In my opinion, to the extent that the Internally Displaced Person (IDP) can demonstrate with formal identity papers that they lived in the region before all hell broke loose, they should be allowed to return even if they do not have sponsorship in order to respect International Humanitarian Laws. In regards to IRANIAN militia with SHIA IRAQI forces freeing the final remaining YAZIDI villages occupied by ISIS including KOCHO which was the place of one of the most notorious atrocities of ISIS in which male residents were lined up and executed while the females were taken away to be sold as sex slaves, this is just another shadow war being fought behind the scenes that nobody seems to hear. In my opinion, this just further illustrates the complexity of the wars in the region, including the twists and turns of the region’s geopolitics, as U.S. and U.K. warplanes were providing air cover for the SHIA militias, with IRANIANS in their ranks, in their war against ISIS while U.S. President Donald Trump attacked IRAN during his recent visit to SAUDI ARABIA for exporting terrorism in the region while signing a $110 billion arms deal with SAUDI ARABIA to counter the supposed SHIA threat. In my opinion, this example once again reflects the new rules of the game on the geopolitical stage perfectly whereby the world has become one giant poker game with all parties playing the best hand that they can with the current cards in their hands such that everyone needs to learn to not hate the players but perhaps to hate the game.
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