Saturday, June 17, 2017
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 251
During the week ending on Sunday, June 18, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants. Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as a TURKISH court sentenced Enis Berberoglu, a Republican People’s party (CHP) MP to 25 years in prison over his alleged leaking of state secrets to the daily opposition newspaper CUMHURIYET. Obviously, this twenty-five year sentence sparked outrage amongst the TURKISH opposition ranks as Turkey’s main opposition party begun a march from TURKEY’s capital, ANKARA, to its largest city, ISTANBUL, to protest against the imprisonment. Hundreds of protesters appeared to have joined the march, carrying banners that said “adalet” or “justice” as they set out on the 280-mile (450 km) trek that will take them to MALTEPE prison, where Enis Berberoglu has been incarcerated. The story concerned an incident in 2014 when the TURKISH army intercepted vehicles bound for the SYRIAN border belonging to the National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) that were supposed to be carrying humanitarian aid but were instead carrying arms. In addition, TURKEY convicted Judge Aydin Sefa Akay, from the UN's Mechanism for International Criminal Tribunals, of being a member of a designated terrorist group. However, the United Nations says TURKEY’s decision to convict one its judges is a breach of both diplomatic immunity and a binding legal order. Nonetheless, Judge Aydin Sefa Akay faces more than seven years in prison if an appeal fails after having been convicted of membership in the Fethullah Gulen movement founded by exiled Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen. Although Judge Aydin has been released pending an appeal, his passport has been confiscated and he is banned from leaving TURKEY.
Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and US-led ALLIANCE forces continued with their offensive against ISIS on MOSUL as IRAQI and ALLIED forces managed to push ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces appear to have liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety. As a friendly reminder, MOSUL is divided by the Tigris River with both east and west sides respectively making up about half of the population of MOSUL. Elite ALLIANCE forces managed to fight through an elaborate defense system formed by ISIS over the past two years, that kept ALLIANCE forces out while contemporaneously keeping the residents of MOSUL trapped in as captives, by recapturing east MOSUL in its entirety while being at the cusp of controlling west MOSUL in the short-term. On a positive note, this week in a series of lightning fast advances, ALLIANCE forces seized further control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS as IRAQI forces were close to completing the encirclement of ISIS’s stronghold in the Old MOSUL City after taking control of a neighbouring district. IRAQ’s military said it had captured BAB SINJAR, north of the historic, densely populated district where ISIS launched their cross-border caliphate in 2014. IRAQI forces and their allies still have to take full control of Medical City, a complex of hospitals further north along the bank of the TIGRIS, to enclose the ISIS enclave. On another positive note, the U.S. led air strikes intensified as the ALLIANCE conducted seven strikes consisting of 39 engagements against ISIS targets consisting of: (i) HUWAYJAH: Two strikes on an ISIS tactical unit that destroyed an ISIS boat and an ISIS staging area; (ii) QAIM: One strike destroyed a vehicle bomb factory; (iii) TAL AFAR: One strike destroyed a mortar system; AND (iv) MOSUL: Three strikes on three ISIS tactical units destroyed seven fighting positions, two tunnels, a mortar system and a machine gun firing system.
Moving on to SYRIA, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire peace process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks. Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN regime carried out the chemical attacks. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week although TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA signed an agreement at the SYRIAN cease-fire talks in KAZAKHSTAN two weeks ago calling for the creation of four de-escalation zones in SYRIA that represent the latest attempt by all key players in the region to reduce the violence in SYRIA including the commitment by President Bashar al-Assad that the SYRIAN air force will halt flights over the designated areas in SYRIA. Unfortunately, the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt albeit Russia and the U.S. continuing to discuss the situation in round-the-clock mode anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, criticized the U.S. deployment of multiple rocket launchers in southern SYRIA on the basis that they were intended to cut off SYRIAN government troops from allies in IRAQ since there were no ISIS militants in the region to target with these weapons. It seems that the U.S. deployed its High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) in southern SYRIA, close to the border with JORDAN whereby the powerful truck mounted launchers arrived from JORDAN to the city of AT TANF this week while AT TANF continues to serve as a base for militia forces trained by U.S. instructors. On a positive note, Russia’s defence ministry claimed RUSSIA might have killed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the elusive leader of ISIS, in an air strike in Syria. RUSSIA’s defence ministry said RUSSIAN fighter jets struck an ISIS command post near the city of RAQQA, as leaders of the ISIS GROUP were meeting on May 28, killing more than 300 militants. According to information that is now being independently verified, also present at the meeting was ISIS leader ABU BAKR AL-BAGHDADI, who was killed as a result of the strike. RUSSIA confirmed that high-ranking commanders of the ISIS terrorist group, who were part of the so-called military council of ISIS, as well as about 30 mid-level field commanders and up to 300 fighters in charge of their personal protection, were killed as part of the RUSSIAN operation.
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Ironically, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as a TURKISH court sentenced Enis Berberoglu, a Republican People’s party (CHP) MP to 25 years in prison over his alleged leaking of state secrets to the daily opposition newspaper CUMHURIYET. In my opinion, the ensuing march by the opposition from TURKEY’s capital, ANKARA, to its largest city, ISTANBUL, to protest against the imprisonment is more than justified as the opposition seems to be subject to dictatorial rule without any justice as the twenty five year jail term seems excessive for the alleged crimes of transporting arms as part of a humanitarian aid convoy to SYRIA combined with evidence which cannot be described as substantive. It boggles my mind how TURKEY is able to impose such harsh penalties based on evidence that can be described at best as circumstantial in the sense that TURKEY applies significant hypotheses and assumptions to land credence to evidence that would be ignored by a judge in an international court on the basis of being circumstantial in nature. For example, if one approves a shipment of humanitarian aid for which there later happens to be arms hidden inside, the person approving the shipment cannot automatically be found guilty unless it can be proven that they was aware of the arms as well. Therefore, in an international court, there would have to be some sort of substantive evidence such as a memo discussing the arms in particular linked to the specific TURKISH MP to support a guilty verdict and not merely the assumption that because the TURKISH MP Approved the humanitarian aid convoy, they must have also approved the arms shipment buried inside. In regards to TURKEY convicting Judge Aydin Sefa Akay, from the UN's Mechanism for International Criminal Tribunals, of being a member of a designated terrorist group, the Fethullah Gulen movement, the seven year sentence is quite severe although he has been released pending an appeal although he is banned from leaving TURKEY. In my opinion, Judge Aydin Sefa Akay should be released immediately as TURKEY’s actions are in breach of JUDGE AKAY’s protected status under the international UN legal framework for which the UN has issued a court order to TURKEY. However, TURKEY continues to be resilient in applying TURKISH law on anyone remotely connected to the Fethullah Gulen movement such that even an educated JUDGE AKAY who was using the encrypted communication service BYLOCK was considered guilty by association to the BYLOCK software. In my opinion, JUDGE AKAY was clearly using the BYLOCK software for other work related purposes regarding the review of the 30-year sentence given to Augustin Ngirabatware, a former Rwandan planning minister, by the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda such that it is preposterous to pin JUDGE AKAY for using BYLOCK. However, this is just another example of how TURKEY is applying justice authoritarian style based on the principal of “Guilty Until Proven Innocent” whereas international law clearly advocates the notion of “Innocent Until Proven Guilty”.
Moving on to IRAQ, the recent successful attacks on ISIS by IRAQI security forces in MOSUL, has clearly sent the message to ISIS that it is just a matter of time until the ISIS Empire in MOSUL dies. However, the IRAQI led troops on the ground are essentially forced to fight ISIS style, which is slow and brutal for any other type of heavy artillery attack on ISIS, will result in significant collateral damage in terms of human casualties. Therefore, the ALLIANCE forces recapture of eastern MOSUL in its entirety has triggered a lightning fast momentum as ALLIANCE forces managed to seize control of major parts of Western MOSUL although in my opinion, the last of the fighting will most probably be a lot more difficult. In my opinion, ISIS will cling on to the oldest parts of MOSUL city where streets are narrow making it hard to manoeuvre military convoys and thus increasing the risk of ambushes and civilian casualties. Therefore, it is not surprising to see that ALLIANCE forces are having a difficult time to fully retake control of central MOSUL’s OLD CITY but this struggle is unfortunately necessary to secure the entire province of MOSUL such that patience is of utmost importance as ALLIANCE forces must continue with their relentless yet prudent attacks until ALL ISIS snipers have been eliminated. In regards to new IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI forces were close to completing the encirclement of ISIS’s stronghold in the Old MOSUL City, this is the critical step for IRAQI forces to finally be in a position to squeeze out the remaining ISIS resistance, by essentially trapping ISIS in a large cage such that ISIS’s living space will continue to be constrained, until there is no more space for ISIS to breath another day. In regards to the U.S. led air strikes intensifying as the ALLIANCE conducted seven strikes consisting of 39 engagements against ISIS targets, this is another critical success factor to victory as the pounding from the air represents the competitive advantage of ALLIANCE forces on the ground who are unable to mount any sort of military formations to defend themselves whereby when ISIS members are exposed, they have in essence become sitting ducks just waiting to be plucked.
Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's future should be off the agenda for now and the main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace.
In regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad watched as the cease-fire agreement signed last week that establishes four de-escalation zones was violated. In my opinion, although the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt, I believe that RUSSIAN and U.S. round-the-clock discussions anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control should be welcomed as a positive development in fully implementing the de-escalation zones. In my opinion, it is better for RUSSIA and the U.S. to try to work together to implement something in terms of de-escalation zones as opposed to sitting back and insuring that both parties achieve nothing. That being said, it is a shame to once again see geopolitical manouvering as Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, criticized the U.S. deployment of multiple rocket launchers in southern SYRIA on the basis that they were intended to cut off SYRIAN government troops from allies in IRAQ since there were no ISIS militants in the region to target with these weapons. In my opinion, Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov’s criticism seems to be valid as the presence of the launchers near AT TANF cannot be justified by a need to fight ISIS terrorists as there are no ISIS troops remaining around that area. Therefore, it seems to me that placing such powerful weapons in AT TANF where the weapons are not positioned well to fight ISIS is an attempt by the ALLIANCE to create an additional military force for geopolitical reasons other than an imminent threat from ISIS. In my opinion, the positioning of the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) in southern SYRIA would prevent the creation of stable distribution channels between the SYRIAN government and other pro-government forces in SYRIA with their partners in neighbouring IRAQ. Therefore, it seems to me that once again rather than creating a single front for the fight against terrorism, there is a double standard with another attempt at geopolitical manoeuvring for ultimate power and control. However, in my opinion both the U.S. led alliance and the Russian backed SYRIAN regime play the same game at different moments depending on their beneficial personal, financial and political interests so that I must conclude that these geopolitical games are here to forever stay so everybody needs to by the same rules play or be left astray. In regards to Russia’s defence ministry claim that RUSSIA might have killed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the elusive leader of ISIS, in an air strike in Syria, it is my opinion that based on the information presented, RUSSIA cannot confirm with 100% certainty that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed. In my opinion, there is only a Russian Roulette 50% probability that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed as the Godfather of ISIS has been pronounced dead several times before, only to resurface again, such that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi seems to be like a cat with nine lives. Furthermore, ISIS usually acknowledges the deaths of its leaders, celebrating them as martyrs, but ISIS supporters have not thus far made any claim of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi death. However, I believe Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s death is irrelevant as even if he was killed, there are plenty of loyal ISIS militants ready, willing and able to replace Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi at the helm given that ISIS still controls a considerable amount of wealth such that there are plenty of ISIS Satanist Haters with big stakes that would love to control the head of the ISIS snake.
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