During the week ending on Sunday, June 11, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants. Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKEY detained the chairman of Amnesty International, Taner Kilic, in the western city of IZMIR along with 22 other lawyers over alleged links to the FETHULLAH GULEN movement, an organisation that TURKEY blames for last year’s failed “Coup D’État”. As a friendly reminder, FETHULLAH GULEN is the leader of a widespread and influential religious movement known as HIZMET, which owns foundations, associations, media organisations and schools in TURKEY and abroad who has lived in self-imposed exile in the United States since 1999. Amnesty International condemned the move by TURKISH authorities after Taner Kilic’s arrest and search of his home and office by the TURKISH police. TURKISH media said Taner Kilic was detained for using “BYLOCK” that is encrypted communication software that members of the outlawed FETHULLAH GULEN GROUP use according to the TURKISH government. Meanwhile, TURKEY’s parliament approved legislation allowing TURKISH troops to be deployed to a TURKISH military base in QATAR in an apparent show of support for QATAR as QATAR faces diplomatic and trade isolation from some of the biggest Middle Eastern powers. That is, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain severed relations with QATAR and closed their airspace to commercial flights accusing QATAR with financing extremist groups although QATAR vehemently denies the accusations. Therefore, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has criticised the Arab states’ move, saying that isolating QATAR and imposing sanctions will not resolve any problems with QATAR while adding that TURKEY will do everything in TURKISH power to help end the QATAR crisis. SAUDI ARABIA’s Foreign Minister, Adel al-Jubeir, laid down several steps for QATAR to restore ties with ARAB allies, namely that QATAR must end QATAR’s support for the Palestinian group HAMAS and the Muslim Brotherhood before ties with other Arab Gulf states can be restored. Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and US-led ALLIANCE forces continued with their offensive against ISIS on MOSUL as IRAQI and ALLIED forces managed to push ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces appear to have liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety. As a friendly reminder, MOSUL is divided by the Tigris River with both east and west sides respectively making up about half of the population of MOSUL. Elite ALLIANCE forces managed to fight through an elaborate defense system formed by ISIS over the past two years, that kept ALLIANCE forces out while contemporaneously keeping the residents of MOSUL trapped in as captives, by recapturing east MOSUL in its entirety while being at the cusp of controlling west MOSUL in the short-term. On a positive note, this week in a series of lightning fast advances, ALLIANCE forces seized further control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS as a prominent ISIS leader, Ahmed Hashim Hamid, known as the second in command in the region, was killed in western Mosul by ALLIANCE forces. In addition, 34 ISIS militants, including a leader called ABU BARAA AL-TOUNSI, in charge of explosives manufacturing workshops in the Old MOSUL City, were killed during armed confrontations on the AL-ZANJILI district in western MOSUL. Meanwhile, unknown gunmen killed five ISIS militants at an enclave that is still under ISIS’s control west of MOSUL whereby the gunmen were aboard three pickup trucks when they attacked an ISIS checkpoint in central TAL AFAR. The attack threw ISIS into confusion but ISIS was not able to take any retaliatory actions against the unknown gunmen since many of their superior ISIS leaders had already fled the town and ISIS found itself in disarray. Moving on to SYRIA, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire peace process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks. Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN regime carried out the chemical attacks. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week although TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA signed an agreement at the SYRIAN cease-fire talks in KAZAKHSTAN two weeks ago calling for the creation of four de-escalation zones in SYRIA that represent the latest attempt by all key players in the region to reduce the violence in SYRIA including the commitment by President Bashar al-Assad that the SYRIAN air force will halt flights over the designated areas in SYRIA. Unfortunately, the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt albeit Russia and the U.S. continuing to discuss the situation in round-the-clock mode anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control. Meanwhile, U.S. aircraft shot down an IRANIAN made drone that fired on ALLIANCE forces patrolling in southern SYRIA, within one of the de-escalation zones, that represents the first time that pro-SYRIAN regime forces, which the US says includes IRANIAN-backed SHIA militias, have fired on the US-led ALLIANCE. The U.S. F-15 jet shot down the IRANIAN-made SHAHED 129 drone that was being controlled from a location in SYRIA after it dropped one of several weapons it was carrying near an ALLIANCE position training and advising LOCAL ground forces in the fight against ISIS although the munitions did not have an impact on ALLIANCE forces. The U.S. led ALLIANCE forces also conducted another airstrike against SYRIAN regime forces in the de-escalation zone around the ALLIANCE AT TANF base after three vehicles were observed crossing into the de-escalation zone. On a positive note, KURDISH and ARAB forces backed by the U.S. entered ISIS’s de facto capital of RAQQA, setting the stage for what could be a months-long military campaign to reclaim ISIS’s largest stronghold remaining in SYRIA. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a coalition of KURDISH and ARAB fighters, breached the outer city limits of RAQQA, seizing a 1,000 year-old fortress in the west and a neighbourhood on the eastern side of RAQQA quickly from the start of the offensive this week. However, RAQQA to ISIS is the capital of the ISIS caliphate such that ISIS has fortified RAQQA to a great extent although the operation, code named Operation Wrath of Euphrates, will eventually deprive ISIS of its second largest city after MOSUL in IRAQ. In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders.
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Ironically, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKEY detained the chairman of Amnesty International, Taner Kilic, along with 22 other lawyers over alleged links to the FETHULLAH GULEN movement that TURKEY blames for last year’s failed “Coup D’État”. In my opinion, the fact that TURKEY's post “Coup D’État” purge has now gone after the chair of Amnesty International in TURKEY only reinforces how far TURKEY has gone with authoritarian rule and just how unpredictable TURKEY has become in the sense that nobody saw the arrest of Taner Kilic coming. In my opinion, TURKEY once again appears to be applying the authoritarian principle of “Guilty Until Proven Innocent” as opposed to the democratic principal of “Innocent Until Proven Guilty” such that unless TURKEY has credible and admissible evidence of Taner Kilic along with the other 22 lawyers involvement in any internationally recognised crimes, TURKEY needs to immediately release TANER KILIC along with the other 22 lawyers and drop all charges against them under international laws governing agents of Amnesty International. In my opinion, detaining them for using “BYLOCK” that is encrypted communication software that members of the outlawed FETHULLAH GULEN GROUP also use is insufficient grounds for arrests as the underlying software itself is not illegal and is used by many organizations other than the FETHULLAH GULEN GROUP. Therefore, from my point-of-view, these arrests and purges appear to be arbitrary with the TURKISH government using the failed “Coup D’État” as a pretext to silence opposition in the country including any figures from internationally recognized organizations such as Amnesty International. In regards to TURKEY vowing to do everything in TURKISH power to help end the QATAR crisis after Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain severed relations with QATAR and closed their airspace to commercial flights accusing QATAR with financing extremist groups although QATAR vehemently denies the accusations, in my opinion TURKEY has made the right decision to support QATAR. In my opinion, this is the worst split between powerful Arab states in decades such that TURKEY is in the best position to intervene as TURKEY is SUNNI Muslim dominated while QATAR is known to support the SHIA Muslim Palestinian group HAMAS and the Muslim Brotherhood also heavily SHIA based. Furthermore, although HAMAS continues to be an extremist organization, the Muslim Brotherhood seems to have evolved significantly over the years such that today they do not seem to be a revolutionary movement nor do they appear to display any inclinations toward pursuing radical change. In my opinion, QATAR is actually a good broker for HAMAS and the Muslim Brotherhood such that to the extent QATAR also hosts the largest U.S. air base in the Middle East; I do not see QATAR as a threat to peace in the Middle East due to its ties with HAMAS and the Muslim Brotherhood. To the contrary, I see QATAR as the best broker for HAMAS and the Muslim Brotherhood to the extent QATAR’s financing of HAMAS in particular is limited to the war in SYRIA as everybody severing relations with QATAR consisting of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain are also financing the war in SYRIA on the opposing side including far right factions similar to HAMAS. Therefore, either ALL Parties stop financing extremist factions in SYRIA or QATAR should not be isolated solely for this reason but rather there must be concrete evidence that QATAR is financing HAMAS outside of SYRIA for other than humanitarian aid purposes. Moving on to IRAQ, the recent successful attacks on ISIS by IRAQI security forces in MOSUL, has clearly sent the message to ISIS that it is just a matter of time until the ISIS Empire in MOSUL dies. However, the IRAQI led troops on the ground are essentially forced to fight ISIS style, which is slow and brutal for any other type of heavy artillery attack on ISIS, will result in significant collateral damage in terms of human casualties. Therefore, the ALLIANCE forces recapture of eastern MOSUL in its entirety has triggered a lightning fast momentum as ALLIANCE forces managed to seize control of major parts of Western MOSUL although in my opinion, the last of the fighting will most probably be a lot more difficult. In my opinion, ISIS will cling on to the oldest parts of MOSUL city where streets are narrow making it hard to manoeuvre military convoys and thus increasing the risk of ambushes and civilian casualties. Therefore, it is not surprising to see that ALLIANCE forces are having a difficult time to fully retake control of central MOSUL’s OLD CITY but this struggle is unfortunately necessary to secure the entire province of MOSUL such that patience is of utmost importance as ALLIANCE forces must continue with their relentless yet prudent attacks until ALL ISIS snipers have been eliminated. In regards to new IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI forces took out prominent ISIS leader, Ahmed Hashim Hamid, known as the second in command in the region, along with 34 ISIS militants, including a leader called ABU BARAA AL-TOUNSI, in charge of explosives manufacturing workshops, this is the critical success factor to victory in the sense that the heads of the ISIS snake must be executed, one by one, for the ISIS empire to crumble to the ground in MOSUL. In regards to the unknown gunmen that killed five ISIS militants whereby the gunmen were aboard three pickup trucks when they attacked an ISIS checkpoint in central TAL AFAR, vigilante groups are extremely effective in mounting shock and awe attacks on ISIS as they are operating like ghosts whereby they come in and attack quickly before disappearing without a trace such that they are extremely effective in putting ISIS in complete disarray. In my opinion, there has been very little coverage of the vigilante group operating in IRAQ because nobody quite knows who they are or where they are from other than occasional reports about anonymous attacks targeting ISIS members inside and outside MOSUL. In my opinion, the vigilante group has been extremely successful since the launch of the offensive on MOSUL, especially at TAL AFAR, by striking ISIS hard leading to turmoil, divisions and infighting over ISIS leadership and ISIS field defeats as ISIS fights break out from within accusing each other of being responsible for the successful attacks mounted by the vigilantes. In my opinion, assuming that the KURDISH peshmerga, IRAQI army, SHIITE militia and some SUNNI militia forces continue to overlook their differences and stick together, ISIS will inevitably be decimated in IRAQ, although ISIS will likely survive as an incognito terrorist organization throughout the world. In my opinion, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's future should be off the agenda for now and the main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace. In regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad watched as the cease-fire agreement signed last week that establishes four de-escalation zones was violated. In my opinion, although the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt, I believe that RUSSIAN and U.S. round-the-clock discussions anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control should be welcomed as a positive development in fully implementing the de-escalation zones. In my opinion, it is better for RUSSIA and the U.S. to try to work together to implement something in terms of de-escalation zones as opposed to sitting back and insuring that both parties achieve nothing. That being said, it is a shame to once again see the SYRIAN regime and COALITION forces expending significant time and resources on each other as opposed to focusing on the war against the terrorist factions in SYRIA including ISIS, HAYAT TAHRIR AL-SHAM, JABHAT FATEH AL-SHAM, AL QAEDA, NUSRA FRONT, AHRAR AL-SHAM or ALL FULL OF SHIT GANGSTER SHAM who have zero interest in peace negotiations. The recent bitch slapping exercises between the U.S. led ALLIANCE and SYRIAN regime forces including IRAN’s SHIA militia operating around one of the de-escalation zones demonstrates the inherent tensions between major players in the region that continues to deflect resources from the war on ISIS and other terrorist factions representing the biggest risks to be contained. However, in my opinion, the U.S. made the right decision to not loose their mind but rather to reciprocate in kind while maintaining ALLIANCE focus on ISIS but being ready to defend ALLIANCE forces against any threat including SYRIAN regime forces. In my opinion, the key is to reciprocate in kind as the U.S. did by recognizing that the munitions dropped by the IRANIAN drone was a DUD which was interpreted as a show of force by those who fired it such that taking down the drone could be clearly interpreted by the SYRIAN regime that for every action within the de-escalation zone there will be an equal and opposing reaction. In my opinion, the U.S. led ALLIANCE and SYRIAN regime can send messages back and forth essentially flexing their respective muscles but it is clear to me that both sides are equally strong such that no side really has any competitive advantage worthy a full fledge onslaught.
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 250” as the belief that MOSUL victory is critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace albeit U.S. alliance and SYRIAN regime sending messages back and forth essentially flexing their respective muscles although it is clear that both sides are equally strong such that no side really has any competitive advantage worthy of a full fledge onslaught.
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