World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 310

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 310” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while focusing on the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby this week’s announcement by RUSSIA that IRANIAN forces have pulled back from the Golan Heights should be welcomed as a positive development, although ISRAEL clearly stated that such a pull back is insufficient, with no compromises or concessions, from ISRAEL’s position of a complete withdrawal being necessary, while RUSSIA cannot force IRANIAN forces to leave SYRIA, but rather only at the request of President Bashar al-Assad, will the IRANIANS leave, such that the RUSSIANS will be forced to turn a blind eye to ISRAELI air strikes against suspected IRANIAN and HEZBOLLAH armament transfers in SYRIA, as RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin has emerged as the best poker player in SYRIA, playing his cards best, catching the U.S. and E.U. off-guard by stealing the upper hand militarily with IRAN, while it seems that RUSSIA will now assume the humanitarian role in SYRIA, after RUSSIA played the key role in the mass atrocities that occurred, after multiple vetoes and other diplomatic obstructions at the UN, as RUSSIA seems to be best able to adopt multiple personalities, that seems to be necessary when dealing with all of the competing interests in SYRIA, which resembles a mental asylum with paranoid schizophrenics that seems to need a Vladimir Putin to function as a Sigmund Freud.

TURKEY News

As a friendly reminder, TURKEY has been on the defense ever since an internal military “Coup D’État” failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP focused their attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say that the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants.

During the week ending on Sunday, August 5, 2018, the focus in TURKEY continued to be on the results of the elections held on June 24, 2018 as this was the most pivotal election in modern TURKISH history that will now result in the abolition of the prime minister’s role and thus President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems well positioned to fulfill his dreams of obtaining supreme political power while overturning almost a century of parliamentary rule. Thus, TURKEY’s main opposition parties that created a broad electoral alliance before the general elections could not create a significant enough challenge to the dominance of the governing AKP party under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Although President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won the presidential race, the opposition block in parliament does not look like it will impose a significant challenge to the governing AKP. That is, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s closest rival consisting of Muharrem İnce of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) who turned out to be a charismatic speaker who could attract people to his rallies only ended up being the choice of his grassroots supporters. Therefore, Muharrem İnce only managed to increase the main opposition CHP vote from the stable 25% to 30.6% percent but that was not enough as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was able to win more than half of the votes in the first round.

It is important to note that, two weeks ago, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan allowed TURKEY’s two-year state of emergency to come to an end but as trials of dissidents and journalists continue, human rights campaigners continue to pressure TURKEY to do more to reverse a suffocating crackdown on free speech. Critics claim that the state of emergency, in place since the failed “Coup D’État” in July of 2016 that killed 250 people and wounded 1,400, has been used to detain opponents of the governing AKP for lengthy periods of time without trial to intimidate dissidents and to prosecute media outlets. That is, more than 120,000 people in the police, military, academia, media and civil service have been detained or dismissed from their jobs over their alleged links to Fethullah Gulen who is the exiled TURKISH preacher based now in the U.S. who TURKEY blames as the brains behind the operations for the failed “Coup D’État”. However, the behaviours of TURKEY’s governing AKP seem to be taking their toll on the TURKISH economy as turbulent politics have resulted in economic turmoil whereby the sliding TURKISH Lira has set-off alarm bells across TURKEY as businesses struggle to cope with the financial impacts of a declining TURKISH Lira. It is important to note that the economic challenges TURKEY is facing deepened this week as the TURKISH Lira plunged another 1% after having plunged by 4.2% last week after the TURKISH central bank shocked the financial markets by keeping interest rates on hold. This weeks decline seems to be attributable to U.S. sanctions imposed on TURKEY due to the detention of American pastor, Andrew Craig Brunson that compounded investor concerns dealing another blow to TURKEY’s already fragile economy.

Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored the U.S. demands to release American pastor, Andrew Craig Brunson who has been held for nearly two years in a case that has strained relations between the two countries. As a friendly reminder, Pastor Andrew Brunson from North Carolina went before a TURKISH judge to enter his plea of not guilty to any wrongdoing although he currently faces up to 35 years in prison. In summary, Pastor Andrew Brunson was detained in the aftermath of the 2016 failed “Coup D’État” attempt in TURKEY for alleged links to the outlawed KURDISH PKK as well as the Fethullahist Terrorist Organization (FETO) led by U.S. based cleric Fethullah Gulen. Ironically, Pastor Andrew Brunson clearly stated that he does not accept any of the allegations or accusations as he did not engage in any illegal activities and did not have any relations with anyone engaged in such activities as a Christian pastor whose aims are different from both the KURDISH PKK and FETO. Thus, U.S. President Donald Trump has thrown his full support behind the release of Pastor Andrew Brunson and has spoken with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan several times about releasing the pastor, culminating with U.S. President Donald Trump being unhappy with TURKEY’s decision not to release Pastor Andrew Brunson, resulting in sanctions formally imposed this week. In particular, the U.S. sanctioned two officials consisting of TURKEY’s Minister of Justice, Abdulhamit Gul, and Minister of Interior Affairs, Suleyman Soylu, who both played leading roles behind Pastor Andrew Brunson’s arrest and detention. In summary, the U.S. imposed sanctions effectively block any property or interest in property controlled by them in the U.S. and prohibits Americans from engaging in any transactions with them.

Meanwhile, the leaders of three major players in SYRIA, RUSSIA, IRAN and TURKEY ended their last summit with a commitment to achieving a lasting ceasefire in SYRIA, even as the future role of U.S. forces in SYRIA remains in doubt. The meeting in the TURKISH capital of ANKARA brought together two of SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad’s strongest supporters, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of TURKEY, as the primary backer of the opposition Free Syrian Army (FSA). Notably absent from the talks were representatives from SYRIA itself and from the U.S., another important player in the SYRIAN conflict. In an unusual show of solidarity with IRAN, Turkish President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan told his IRANIAN counterpart Hassan Rouhani that he found the U.S. decision to withdraw from a 2015 nuclear deal with IRAN to be wrong. In a telephone call, TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan told IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani that TURKEY wanted the deal to be maintained, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would pull out from the deal. Meanwhile, this week, ISRAEL and TURKEY relations appeared to be soured as TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated his resolve to advance the interests of TURKEY with the MUSLIM world including IRAN and the PLESTINIANS.

Therefore, ISRAEL and TURKEY once again appear to be on a collision course that is not GAZA or the peace process with the PALESTINIANS but rather ISRAEL and TURKEY relations appeared to be soured this week as TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blasted the new ISRAELI nation state law as embodying the spirit of Hitler last week that ISRAEL seems to have retaliated with this week by preventing 81 TURKISH citizens from entering ISRAEL. As a friendly reminder, the ISRAELI nation state law, which officially recognises ISRAEL as the home for Jewish people, provoked anger amongst ARAB leaders, who expressed their concerns over the possibilities now for discrimination against ARAB citizens while accusing ISRAEL of trying to create an apartheid state. Although ISREAL did not link the prevention of 81 TURKISH citizens from entering ISRAEL to the comments made by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last week, the timing of the reinforcement by ISRAEL at the border does seem to be strangely coincidental. Nonetheless, ISRAEL prevented 81 TURKISH citizens from entering ISRAEL at Ben-Gurion Airport claiming that their Visas had been forged. Not surprisingly, TURKISH media quoted a representative of the travel agency as saying that it had received a letter from the ISRAELI consulate in TURKEY that serves as a group Visa. Further strange developments in TURKISH and ISRAELI relations transpired this week as U.S. President Donald Trump asked ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to release the TURKISH woman suspected of helping HAMAS, as part of a deal to release U.S. Pastor Andrew Brunson held by TURKEY as discussed above. Thus, it appears that in a phone call U.S. President Donald Trump asked ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to release Ebru Ozkan, 27 year-old TURKISH citizen who was detained by ISRAEL last month on suspicion of being a danger to state security and conspiring with terror organizations. However, ISRAELI officials clarified that she was deported, not released, and that she would have been deported anyway at some point in time. Ironically, TURKISH senior officials denied the report, calling the claim that there was an agreement completely baseless, as Pastor Andrew Brunson continues to be detained by TURKEY.

IRAQ News

As a friendly reminder, IRAQI Kurdish authorities stated that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession. However, the KURDS also stated that this decision must become a basis for starting an inclusive national dialogue between KURDISTAN and IRAQ to resolve all disputes through implementation of all constitutional articles and in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution because all elements of the IRAQI Constitution must be respected in order to secure the unity of IRAQ. Meanwhile, KURDISH politicians continued to boycott IRAQI parliament with relentless protests at the reduction of KURDISTAN’s share from 17% to nearly 12% of the IRAQI parliament approved 2018 budget. Further, highlighting the division was IRAQ accusing KURDISTAN of corruption in handling oil exports from fields under the KURDISTAN region’s control while IRAQ also went so far as to suggest that revenues could be sufficient to satisfy KURDISTAN expenses otherwise which the KURDISTAN government obviously refuted.

As a friendly reminder, the only thing that appears certain after the May 12, 2018 election is that the voters have rejected both IRAN and the U.S. consisting of the two outside powers that have dominated IRAQI internal affairs since 2003 such that the election of a coalition headed by the populist SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr is a sign that a growing number of IRAQIS are eager to reassert their identity and independence. Thus, all the IRAQI election did was establish a framework for the real political negotiations that are currently ongoing and will likely take months to complete. However, there are two obvious potential outcomes from IRAQI political party negotiations with substantial regional and international consequences. That is, the first potential outcome is a coalition headed by Moqtada al-Sadr that probably means a diminishing U.S. presence in IRAQ combined with an IRAQI government that is independent of IRAN’s influence while reintegrating an independent and sovereign IRAQ into the Arab world. Conversely, the second potential outcome is a coalition headed by the pro-IRANIAN Fatah Alliance representing the SHIITE militias along with parties loyal to former Prime Ministers Haider al-Abadi and Nouri al-Maliki as well as smaller groups such as the Kurdistan Coalition that would result in an overtly pro-IRANIAN government. Nonetheless, IRAQ’s parliament ordered a full recount of IRAQ’s recent parliamentary election that resulted in a shock victory for SHIA leader Muqtada al-Sadr. Furthermore, last week, in spite of dramatic differences, the three parties that gained the most votes in IRAQ’s May 12, 2018 parliamentary elections agreed to work together to form a new IRAQI government. Ironically, the driving force behind this odd alliance is SHIA cleric Muqtada al-Sadr who seems to be ready, willing and able to work with Hadi al-Amiri, head of the most powerful IRAN-backed SHIA militia and outgoing president Haidar al-Abadi, the U.S. choice to head the new IRAQI government.

Meanwhile this week, uncertainty appeared to be looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, while the election results still hang in the backdrop without any conclusive outcome other that the likelihood of a coalition government amongst the three major political players as discussed above. Thus, it appears that IRAQ’s ISIS nightmare may be attempting to return, after having gone underground or scattered, when Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared victory in December 2017 against ISIS, as well as declaring that the war was over putting an official end to the three years of ISIS control of almost a third of IRAQ. Hence, once again this week, three tribesmen were found killed, as they were kidnapped while on their way back from the funeral of Colonel Hussein al-Khazarji, who was also killed, along with his brother in similar assassinations. Thus, a total of around 80 IRAQI civilians were killed and another 100 or so were injured in acts of terrorism, violence and armed conflict in IRAQ in July of 2018. Unfortunately, the IRAQI capital of Baghdad was the worst affected city, with around 30 civilians killed and 35 injured, followed by Kirkuk with around 10 killed and 35 injured and Nineveh with around 15 killed and 5 injured. Thus, ISIS continues to launch sporadic attacks across IRAQ such that ISIS still seems to pose a threat against stability in IRAQ as ISIS still has dormant cells, through which it carries out attacks, across IRAQ like it used to do before 2014.

SYRIA News

As a friendly reminder, the current SYRIAN government under the control of President Bashar al-Assad stated that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA, which was liberated from ISIS by the U.S. backed and KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In particular, the existing SYRIAN regime stated that both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime. Meanwhile, fighting has continued sporadically in EASTERN GHOUTA as RUSSIA formally stated that the massive RUSSIAN backed SYRIAN military offensive is almost over with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels now cornered in just a single town after being forced to abandon the greater part of the EASTERN GHOUTA region. Meanwhile several weeks ago, dozens of people were killed, including children, during the alleged toxic bombing, using chemical weapons, of rebel-held DOUMA, in the EASTERN GHOUTA region. Not surprisingly, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the U.S. military, in conjunction with France and the United Kingdom, to launch strikes on SYRIA in retaliation for the suspected chemical weapons attack by the SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad. However, U.S., British and French missile strikes had a limited impact on SYRIAN president Bashar al-Assad’s ability to carry out chemical weapons attacks in the future even though U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted Mission Accomplished after the attacks claiming that they had successfully struck the heart of SYRIA’s chemical weapons program.

However, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN allies continued to focus their attention on the southern province of DERAA where they have intensified their bombing campaign after a ceasefire deal between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels and the Russians broke down. Meanwhile, SAA government forces stated that they have retaken a town that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war that engulfed SYRIA for over seven years now as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war. It is important to note that under an agreement reached with Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels, the SYRIAN government stated that the rebels would hand over their heavy and medium weapons while those who agree to the accord will be allowed to remain in the region while those who refuse reconciliation will be evacuated. However, the SAA campaign intensified as QUNEITRA, the heavily populated city that lies northwest of DERAA, representing the largest sector still held by rebels in the Golan Heights, came under attack as the SAA launched intensive aerial strikes on the city. It is important to note that dozens of civilian casualties were recorded as the SAA pushed forward with a RUSSIAN-backed offensive in the area. Thus, the SAA forces were able to raise the SYRIAN flag in the largely ruined city of QUNEITRA as the SYRIAN government tightens its hold on the SYRIAN section of the Golan Heights which is a strategic territory bordering both ISRAEL and JORDAN.

Meanwhile, the tensions between IRAN and ISRAEL seem to have continued to escalate again after ISRAELI airstrikes targeted IRANIAN military infrastructure inside SYRIA several weeks ago. Obviously, IRAN condemned the wave of ISRAELI air strikes in SYRIA and clearly stated that these attacks by ISRAEL represent a blatant violation of SYRIA’s sovereignty such that IRAN has backed SYRIA’s right to defend itself against ISRAEL. It is important to note that the strikes were the heaviest strikes carried out by ISRAEL on SYRIA in decades that came right after twenty rockets were fired at ISRAELI military positions in the occupied Golan Heights of SYRIA. It is no secret that the strikes hurt IRAN that has deployed hundreds of troops inside SYRIA as military advisers to the SYRIAN governments Syrian Arab Army (SAA) while thousands of IRANIAN militia armed, trained and financed by IRAN have also been battling SYRIAN rebel forces alongside the SAA. ISRAEL stated that ISRAELI fighter jets struck almost IRAN’s entire military infrastructure inside Syria consisting of some 70 targets in ISRAELS biggest assault since SYRIA’s civil war commenced in 2011.

Subsequently, this week, the tone escalated between ISRAEL and IRAN, as ISRAEL continues to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to be adamant that the IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, this week’s announcement by RUSSIA that IRANIAN forces have pulled back from the Golan Heights seems to be a step in the right direction. It is important to note that the IRANIAN forces have withdrawn their heavy weapons in SYRIA, to a distance of 85 km from the ISRAELI occupied Golan Heights as per the RUSSIANS, while ISRAEL has nonetheless deemed the pullback inadequate. Nonetheless, RUSSIA has sought to reassure ISRAEL by stating that only SAA forces will deploy on or near the SYRIAN held portion of the Golan Heights on the border with ISRAEL. ISRAEL, however, continues to insist that forces controlled by IRAN, its arch-nemesis, must exit SYRIA entirely now that the civil war in SYRIA appears to be in its final stages.

TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

As a friendly reminder, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the KURDS as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis.

Meanwhile, this week’s focus in TURKEY continued to be on the results of the elections held on June 24, 2018 as it represented the most pivotal election in modern TURKISH history that will now result in the abolition of the prime minister’s role and thus President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems poised to fulfill his dreams by obtaining supreme political power while overturning almost a century of parliamentary rule. Although in my opinion the coalition formed by the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the Iyi Party (IP), the Islamist Saadet Party (SP) and the Democrat Party (DP) makes complete sense strategically, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan still won the presidential race with the opposition block not gaining any significant increases in parliament to pose a significant challenge to the governing AKP. In my opinion, the governing AKP was able to capitalize on positive TURKISH nationalist sentiments after the TURKISH military victory in AFRIN as the governing AKP had never before called early elections in the nearly 16 years the governing AKP has been in power. Therefore, the June 24 elections resulted in another dominant win for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with a commanding 52.6% of the more than 50 million votes, thus exceeding the 50% threshold to get elected in the first round. However, it would not have been possible for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to get re-elected if his governing AKP Party had not allied with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) such that the two parties will now be working closely together in a coalition to run the TURKISH country.

However, last week, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan allowed TURKEY’s two-year state of emergency to come to an end, but as trials of dissidents and journalists continue, human rights campaigners continue to pressure TURKEY to do more to reverse a suffocating crackdown on free speech. In my opinion, over the last two years, TURKEY has been radically transformed with emergency measures used to consolidate authoritarian powers, silence opposition voices and take away basic human rights and civil liberties. However, the behaviours of TURKEY’s governing AKP seem to be taking their toll on the TURKISH economy as turbulent politics have resulted in economic turmoil whereby the sliding TURKISH Lira has set-off alarm bells across TURKEY as businesses struggle to cope with the financial impacts of a declining TURKISH Lira. In my opinion, Although, thanks to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s son-in-law, Berat Albayrak, who was recently named as economic chief, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s principal that high rates should be avoided was respected as interest rates remained unchanged. However, the TURKISH central bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, seems to have crushed all hopes that TURKEY would return to a more traditional monetary policy, and thus seems to have set-off the 4.2% currency decline last week with the weakening TURKISH Lira creating significant risks of fuelling inflation, pressuring a highly indebted corporate sector and deterring critical flows of foreign investment out of TURKEY. In my opinion, TURKEY now risks being locked in a vicious economic downward cycle as a weaker TURKISH Lira will put huge pressure on corporate and bank balance sheets, with reductions of capital investment flows, that would put further pressure on the TURKISH Lira triggering further inflation. Therefore, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s decision to ignore U.S. sanctions imposed on TURKEY due to the detention of American pastor, Andrew Craig Brunson further compounded investor concerns dealing another blow to TURKEY’s already fragile economy.

In my opinion, the U.S. sanctions imposed on two officials consisting of TURKEY’s Minister of Justice and Minister of Interior Affairs, who both played leading roles behind Pastor Andrew Brunson’s arrest and detention, are warranted as Pastor Andrew Brunson’s unjust detention and continued prosecution by TURKEY is simply unacceptable as it is predicated on circumstantial evidence that would never survive the test of duly applied international laws predicated on substantive evidence. In my opinion, although he currently faces unto 35 years in prison, the U.S. administration should fight for Pastor Andrew Brunson’s until all charges are dropped. I fully support Pastor Andrew Brunson that he did not engage in any illegal activities and did not have any relations with anyone engaged in such activities as a Christian pastor whose aims are clearly different from both the KURDISH PKK and FETO. In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump once again showed a strong backbone by making good on his warnings to TURKEY that would be punitive consequences if TURKEY does not reverse the charges or acquits Pastor Andrew Brunson on all accusations of espionage and aiding of terrorist groups. In my opinion, President Donald Trump’s assessment is accurate that Pastor Andrew Brunson is a fine gentleman and Christian leader who is being persecuted in TURKEY for no reason whereby TURKEY calls Pastor Andrew Brunson a Spy although there is no substantive evidence such that Pastor Andrew Brunson should be allowed to return home to his beautiful family where he belongs.

In regards to the leaders of three major players in SYRIA; RUSSIA, IRAN and TURKEY ending their last summit with a commitment to achieving a lasting ceasefire in SYRIA, even as the future role of U.S. forces in SYRIA remains in doubt, everyone seems to agree with the overall principal that a SYRIAN peace deal followed by humanitarian aid is critical albeit the realities that the respective parties cannot seem to be able to agree on the details in terms of timing and logistics. In regards to the unusual show of solidarity with IRAN whereby Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his IRANIAN counterpart Hassan Rouhani that he found the U.S. decision to withdraw from a 2015 nuclear deal with IRAN to be wrong, I am not surprised as TURKEY recognizes that the deal was the product of more than a decade of diplomacy whereby the final nuclear agreement signed in July of 2015 by the U.S., France, Britain, Germany, Russia, China and Iran represents a milestone that the U.S. has now unilaterally decided to withdraw from. Not surprisingly, among the few nations to welcome U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision were ISRAEL and SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN’s arch-nemesis in the Middle East.

However, ISRAEL and TURKEY relations appeared to be soured this week as TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blasted the new ISRAELI nation state law last week as embodying the spirit of Hitler. In my opinion, the ISRAELI nation state law, which officially recognises ISRAEL as the home for Jewish people, obviously provoked anger amongst ARAB leaders, who expressed their concerns over the possibilities now for discrimination against ARAB citizens while accusing ISRAEL of trying to create an apartheid state. Thus, in my opinion ISRAEL seems to have retaliated this week by preventing 81 TURKISH citizens from entering ISRAEL although ISRAEL claims that their Visas had been forged while TURKISH media claim that the travel agency had received a letter from the ISRAELI consulate in TURKEY that serves as a group Visa. In regards to U.S. President Donald Trump asking ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to release the TURKISH woman suspected of helping HAMAS, as part of a deal to release U.S. Pastor Andrew Brunson held by TURKEY as discussed above, I’m not surprised ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu release Ebru Ozkan, 27 year-old TURKISH citizen who was detained by ISRAEL last month on suspicion of being a danger to state security and conspiring with terror organizations at the request of U.S. President Donald Trump. However, I was surprised that TURKISH senior officials denied the report, calling the claim that there was an agreement completely baseless, as Pastor Andrew Brunson continues to be detained by TURKEY. Thus, U.S. President Donald Trump did the right strategic move in my opinion to return Ebru Ozkan to TURKEY in anticipation that TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would reciprocate in kind with U.S. Pastor Andrew Brunson. However, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has now given U.S. President Donald Trump more than ample reasons to punish TURKEY with punitive sanctions.

IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

As a friendly reminder, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.

As a friendly reminder, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. In my opinion, KURDISH politicians continuing with their total withdrawal from the IRAQI political arena is not surprising after the IRAQI parliament approved the 2018 budget with a reduced share for the KURDISH autonomous region from 17% of the IRAQI budget as had been the case since the new IRAQI government was formed after the U.S. led invasion to the proportion of the KURDISH population that the IRAQI government estimates to be at 12.6%. In my opinion, the 17% demand by the KURDISH government is reasonable as at least 17% of IRAQI soil is covered with KURDISH blood such that the KURDS earned their 17% share through blood, sweat and tears as the KURDISH forces held back ISIS forces from conquering IRAQ in its entirety while IRAQI forces were scrambling and nowhere to be seen.

As a friendly reminder, in regards to the analysis of IRAQI election results, it is certain that the IRAQI political structure remains complicated with the biggest number of parliamentary seats of 54 won by the coalition headed by the populist SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, a coalition of pro-IRANIAN Shiite parties finishing second with 47 seats while the block led by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, the U.S. favourite, finishing closely with 42 seats. In my opinion, either a coalition under Moqtada al-Sadr will emerge or a pro-IRANIAN coalition under the Fatah Alliance will emerge such that either way, it seems that the U.S. presence in IRAQ will likely diminish over time. In my opinion, many Americans still remember Moqtada al-Sadr from the post-invasion period of IRAQI history when he commanded a militia that attacked U.S. forces and committed atrocities against the SUNNI population. Ironically, Moqtada al-Sadr never reconciled with the U.S. while contemporaneously having a bitter falling out with IRAN. However, in my opinion, Moqtada al-Sadr seems to now be repositioning IRAQ for closer relations with SAUDI ARABIA that once wrote-off IRAQ as a victory for IRAN while now once again, the SAUDI Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, seems to be courting IRAQI’s SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. In my opinion, last weeks ordering by IRAQ’s parliament of a full recount of IRAQ’s recent parliamentary election that resulted in a shock victory for SHIA leader Muqtada al-Sadr is not surprising as nobody ever expected him to win.

In regards to this weeks uncertainty looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, while the election results still hang in the backdrop without any conclusive outcome other that the likelihood of a coalition government amongst the three major political players as discussed above, it is obvious that IRAQ now finds itself once again with a weak government at the moment when IRAQ needs to be as strong as possible to cope with the potential for an ISIS re-emergence. In my opinion, poor governance, lack of public infrastructure and high levels of corruption, particularly in poor SUNNI areas, is helping to fuel ISIS’s objectives of a comeback after its crushing defeat. I believe that the root of the ISIS re-emergence is that it does not seem to take much to manipulate the frustrations of the IRAQI population, particularly in poor SUNNI areas. That is, IRAQIS live in a rich country with an abundance of oil while widespread corruption seems to take away from their entitlement to basic minimal needs. Thus, this week’s announcement by Iraqi Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi, that the IRAQI government has ordered the formation of a committee to investigate corruption amid widespread demonstrations was long over due. In my opinion, a formalized process for releasing a list of corrupt officials, who will face the judiciary is critical to regaining the confidence of the IRAQI population, combined with a firm resolve that IRAQ will not tolerate any corruption from any IRAQI government official, no matter how senior they may be. Furthermore, it seems that IRAQIS who lost their homes in the fight against ISIS in major SUNNI dominated towns such as MOSUL and TIKRIT were allowed to return only after paying off SHIITE dominated ministries that obviously fuels the ISIS recruiting machine for new local people to help with ISIS’s dirty deeds. Therefore, in my opinion, a complete U.S. pull out from IRAQ at this stage could play straight into the hands of ISIS such that it would be best for the U.S. to remain until such time as ISIS no longer poses a threat of re-emergence. Thus, it was welcoming news to hear this week that NATO will provide 200 personnel to train IRAQ’s security forces to prevent ISIS from regaining a foothold IRAQ because in my opinion, ISIS has a conniving and relentless ability to reincarnate itself such that although ISIS has been significantly reduced, ISIS is far from eliminated.

SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

As a friendly reminder, the war in SYRIA entered into a dangerous phase when EASTERN GHOUTA was under attack by SYRIAN Regime forces on so-called SYRIAN rebel terrorists is a human tragedy that unfolded before everybodies eyes such that in my opinion the international community cannot let things keep going in this horrendous fashion. As a friendly reminder, in some of the worst bombardment campaigns of the war in SYRIA, over one thousand people have been killed and over five thousand have been injured in EASTERN GHOUTA, a Free Syrian Army (FSA) held enclave that is home to about 400,000 people that borders the SYRIAN capital of Damascus. In my opinion, President Bashar al-Assad wants to recapture EASTERN GHOUTA because it is so close to DAMASCUS, the capital of SYRIA, that it is possible for rebels to fire mortars into the heart of the capital. In my opinion, the alleged toxic bombing several weeks ago, using chemical weapons, of rebel-held DOUMA, in the EASTERN GHOUTA region killing dozens of people, including children, was deplorable to say the least. Therefore, U.S. President Donald Trump was forced to order the U.S. military, in conjunction with France and the United Kingdom, to launch strikes on SYRIA in retaliation for the suspected chemical weapons attack by the SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad.

In regards to the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN ally focusing their attention on the southern province of DERAA where they have intensified their bombing campaign after a ceasefire deal between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels and the Russians broke down, I am not surprised to see the intensification of air raids as SYRIAN troops have vowed to advance steadily to recapture lost territory until such time as a ceasefire agreement is negotiated. Thus, I was not surprised when SAA government forces retook a town that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war. Thus, in my opinion, the focus of the SAA campaign that intensified on QUNEITRA, the heavily populated city that lies northwest of DERAA, representing the largest sector still held by rebels in the Golan Heights, is not surprising. Thus, a RUSSIAN brokered deal now allows the return of SAA brigades that existed before the conflict began in 2011 to where they were stationed near the demilitarized zone although there have been no signs of significant deployment of SYRIAN army troops so far. In my opinion, the Israeli government will not stop the SAA army presence in QUNEITRA as long as it keeps away from the demilitarized zone but ISRAEL will continue to attack along it’s frontier with SYRIA and elsewhere in SYRIA where it suspects IRANIAN-backed forces are stationed.

Meanwhile, in regards to this week’s escalation of tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN, I am not surprised to see ISRAEL continuing to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. In my opinion, ISRAEL will not back down from its position that IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, this week’s announcement by RUSSIA that IRANIAN forces have pulled back from the Golan Heights should be welcomed as a positive development although ISRAEL clearly stated that such a pull back is insufficient with no compromises or concessions from ISRAEL’s position of a complete withdrawal being necessary. In my opinion, RUSSIA cannot force IRANIAN forces to leave SYRIA but rather only at the request of President Bashar al-Assad, will the IRANIANS leave. Therefore, I believe the RUSSIANS have accomplished the critical first step with the IRANIAN forces pulling back from the ISRAELI and SYRIAN border in order to not irritate the ISRAELIS who have steadily increased the number of attacks on IRANIAN sites along the border with ISRAEL. That being said, until the IRANIANS are asked to leave by President Bashar al-Assad, I believe that the RUSSIANS will be forced to turn a blind eye to ISRAELI air strikes against suspected IRANIAN and HEZBOLLAH armament transfers in SYRIA. Nonetheless, in my opinion, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin has emerged as the best poker player in SYRIA, playing his cards best, catching the U.S. and E.U. off-guard by stealing the upper hand militarily with IRAN, President Bashar al-Assad’s other key ally. Thus, I believe that now that the last forces from the 2011 anti-Assad popular uprising are being methodically destroyed, RUSSIA will be focused on obtaining U.S. and E.U. support for RUSSIA’s reconciliation and contributions plans for SYRIA’s reconstruction under the control of RUSSIA. Ironically, it seems that RUSSIA will now assume the humanitarian role in SYRIA, after RUSSIA played the key role in the mass atrocities that occurred, after multiple vetoes and other diplomatic obstructions at the UN. Hence, RUSSIA seems to be best able to adopt multiple personalities that seems to be necessary when dealing with all of the competing interests in SYRIA which resembles a mental asylum with paranoid schizophrenics that needs a Vladimir Putin to function as a Sigmund Freud.

In my opinion, the current situation in the Middle East depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War that would likely be triggered by a direct ISRAEL and IRAN conflict, such that all leaders across the globe must avoid the temptation to look away but rather should increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, minimize civilian casualties, prevent the further use of chemical weapons and alleviate the humanitarian crisis from a civil war spiralling out of control with no end in sight, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the Middle East. That being said, the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby this week’s announcement by RUSSIA that IRANIAN forces have pulled back from the Golan Heights should be welcomed as a positive development although ISRAEL clearly stated that such a pull back is insufficient with no compromises or concessions from ISRAEL’s position of a complete withdrawal being necessary, while RUSSIA cannot force IRANIAN forces to leave SYRIA but rather only at the request of President Bashar al-Assad, will the IRANIANS leave, such that the RUSSIANS will be forced to turn a blind eye to ISRAELI air strikes against suspected IRANIAN and HEZBOLLAH armament transfers in SYRIA, as RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin has emerged as the best poker player in SYRIA, playing his cards best, catching the U.S. and E.U. off-guard by stealing the upper hand militarily with IRAN, while it seems that RUSSIA will now assume the humanitarian role in SYRIA, after RUSSIA played the key role in the mass atrocities that occurred, after multiple vetoes and other diplomatic obstructions at the UN, as RUSSIA seems to be best able to adopt multiple personalities that seems to be necessary when dealing with all of the competing interests in SYRIA which resembles a mental asylum with paranoid schizophrenics that needs a Vladimir Putin to function as a Sigmund Freud.

In my opinion, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, although ISIS was literally disappearing from the face of the map in SYRIA, new showdowns between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) only serves to fuel the re-emergence of ISIS as a dangerous player in SYRIA. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS. Thus, in my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and utter madness.

Summary

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 310” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while focusing on the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby this week’s announcement by RUSSIA that IRANIAN forces have pulled back from the Golan Heights should be welcomed as a positive development, although ISRAEL clearly stated that such a pull back is insufficient, with no compromises or concessions, from ISRAEL’s position of a complete withdrawal being necessary, while RUSSIA cannot force IRANIAN forces to leave SYRIA, but rather only at the request of President Bashar al-Assad, will the IRANIANS leave, such that the RUSSIANS will be forced to turn a blind eye to ISRAELI air strikes against suspected IRANIAN and HEZBOLLAH armament transfers in SYRIA, as RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin has emerged as the best poker player in SYRIA, playing his cards best, catching the U.S. and E.U. off-guard by stealing the upper hand militarily with IRAN, while it seems that RUSSIA will now assume the humanitarian role in SYRIA, after RUSSIA played the key role in the mass atrocities that occurred, after multiple vetoes and other diplomatic obstructions at the UN, as RUSSIA seems to be best able to adopt multiple personalities, that seems to be necessary when dealing with all of the competing interests in SYRIA, which resembles a mental asylum with paranoid schizophrenics that seems to need a Vladimir Putin to function as a Sigmund Freud.

Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:

August 5, 2018