In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 272” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace whereas the violation of the free press in TURKEY and the systematic disrespect for human rights warrants NATO, the U.S. and the E.U. to re-evaluate their respective relationships with TURKEY and to stop searching for excuses to justify their silent complacence with TURKEY’s outrageous and unacceptable behaviours which warrant kicking TURKEY out of NATO on the basis that democracy cannot be silenced with excessive force and aggression as this meets the definition of authoritarian communism.
TURKEY News
During the week ending on Sunday, November 12, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP focused their attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants.
Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKEY’s excessive violation of freedoms of the press has reached unreasonable proportions placing TURKEY among the most oppressive nations for journalists in the world. In summary, TURKEY has today become one of the global leaders of incarcerated journalists whereby as of July 2017, the TURKISH government has arrested 228 journalists and convicted an additional 25 as per The Stockholm Center for Freedom. Furthermore, the 2017 World Press Freedom Index of Reporters Without Borders ranked TURKEY at 155 out of 180 countries appearing on the list. It is important to note that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has managed to pretty much silence any media outlets that have attempted any form of scrutiny of the governing AKP policies, particularly the AKP’s crackdown on anyone whom the AKP perceives to be an enemy. Therefore, the governing AKP has effectively censored the TURKISH public from receiving information from domestic newspapers, radio and television that is contrary to the AKP’s perspective. In addition, many of Turkey’s business tycoons, who have extensive media holdings, seem to be given major construction projects while their journalists seem to be forbidden from publishing critical commentary about the governing AKP. Also, the governing AKP regularly targets journalists and media outlets associated with the Fetullah Gulen movement that the TURKISH government accuses of being a terrorist organization whereby Human Rights Watch reported that the governing AKP closed nearly 170 media organizations and publishing outlets under the state of emergency law following the failed “Coup D’État”. Lastly, the governing AKP targeted KURDISH journalists and PRO-KURDISH political activists who expressed support for KURDISH rights including prominent academics and mayors by accusing them of having links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) whereby none of the accused seemed to have committed any crime such that their arrests seemed arbitrary and lacking any legitimacy other than being politically motivated.
IRAQ News
Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and ALLIED forces have pushed ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces first liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety subsequent to ALLIANCE forces seizing complete control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS. It is important to note that IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS to the point of ISIS relinquishing control of MOSUL as the world watched the scenes of jubilation as IRAQI forces liberated the OLD MOSUL City from ISIS. However, with 40,000 plus dead in the battle to take back OLD MOSUL City from ISIS, the scale of civilian casualties reveals a massacre with many bodies still buried under the rubble and the level of human suffering immense. However, ISIS is far from eradicated in IRAQ as several strongholds still remain such that the final battles to push ISIS out of these places will be more complicated than the previous straightforward fights. In addition, many ISIS militias have taken to the hills and began to wage a classic rural guerrilla war, while some ISIS sleeper cells have also been activated at the border of Baghdad, the IRAQI capital. Thus, ISIS has now returned to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group as the Islamic State of IRAQ and SYRIA can no longer call itself a state as ISIS has lost all capacity to act as a state but rather ISIS now stands exposed as a GANGSTER sham.
On the heels of the IRAQI military victory in MOSUL, IRAQI forces have broken through ISIS’s defences inside the northern city of TAL AFAR as IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared victory over ISIS. Furthermore, IRAQ’s Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi claims that the IRAQI military has retaken HAWIJA, the main town in one of the last two enclaves of ISIS in the country although a few villages east of the town of HAWIJA are believed to still be under ISIS control. In addition, IRAQI pro-government forces commenced their long awaited operation to completely destroy ISIS’s caliphate in IRAQ with their campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants. In particular, IRAQI forces launched an offensive to recapture the last bastion of ISIS in IRAQ as soldiers, police, Sunni tribesmen and mostly Shia paramilitary fighters are taking part in the assault on AL-QAIM and RAWA in the Euphrates river valley close to the border with SYRIA. IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi told ISIS militants to choose between deaths and surrender as the IRAQI legions are advancing into the last areas of ISIS terrorism in IRAQ to liberate AL-QAIM, RAWA and the surrounding villages and hamlets. On a positive note this week, IRAQ’s prime minister, Haider al-Abadi announced the recapture of AL-QAIM, ISIS’s last stronghold in IRAQ. It seems that IRAQI forces took full control of AL-QAIM after seizing the last border crossing with SYRIA held by ISIS with help from SUNNI tribal fighters and the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) consisting of a Shia dominated paramilitary force. Therefore, the ISIS fighters now only control a reduced block of territory in IRAQ’s northwest along the SYRIAN border.
Meanwhile, the KURDS still consider the September 25 referendum victory as the culmination of decades of struggle for a KURDISH state of their own although the IRAQI government has clearly stated that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. However, after the votes were tallied and the referendum passed with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, Iraq’s top SHIITE cleric out right rejected the outcome of KURDISTAN’s independence vote despite the overwhelming 92% voting in favour of separating from IRAQ. Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani stated that KURDS must return to the constitutional path arguing that it is in the best interests of all IRAQIS including the KURDS to go back to the constitutional path to solve the issues between the central IRAQI government and the KURDISH region’s government. IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi subsequently released a statement expressing his agreement with the position of Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in addition to stating that the IRAQI government considers KURDISTAN’s referendum as unconstitutional such that the IRAQI government has asked the KURDISH government to cancel its outcome in order to satisfy a precondition for talks on outstanding issues between the two governments. Meanwhile, IRAQI forces along with IRANIAN trained paramilitaries deployed heavy weaponry build up in KIRKUK, the jewel of the proposed future KURDISTAN state. Subsequently, IRAQI forces took control of all major areas of KIRKUK province from KURDISH YPG fighters following fierce fighting. In particular, IRAQI forces took ALTON KUPRI, the oil-rich province of KURDISTAN as rocket; artillery and heavy machine-gun fire erupted in the region. As a friendly reminder, the salient point of disagreement stems from the IRAQI Federal Government deeming the referendum vote as unconstitutional while the KURDISH leadership reaffirms the referendums legitimacy on the basis that it was supported by the majority of the people living in the KURDISTAN Region and was justified on the basis that IRAQI officials have regularly violated over 55 articles of the IRAQI Constitution.
Ironically, last week IRAQI military officials and their KURDISH counterparts went into a new round of talks under the banner of the U.S. in FISH KHABUR to try to find a settlement for recent disputes and the threat of further military confrontation particularly over the border crossing points. It seems that both sides have agreed on some points and are close to reaching a final agreement although no agreement has yet been signed or made public. Apparently, the IRAQI military side were adamant that the FISH KHABOUR border crossing should be handed over to IRAQI military but agreed for KURDISH border guards presence as well as a U.S. force to run the border crossing in tandem. In regards to Kurdish areas outside the Kurdistan Region still held by the KURDS including SHEIKHAN, MAHMODIYA, SAHELA, ALQOSH, GWER and KHAZIR, it seems that these areas will be run jointly between the KURDISH and IRAQI armies. Also of critical importance, the two sides are also working to negotiate a truce after deadly clashes erupted in some of the disputed territories near the SYRIAN border and south of ERBIL. Meanwhile, this week, IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court concluded that the IRAQI constitution did not allow for the secession of any part of the country stressing the preservation of the unity and territorial integrity of IRAQ. However, Mohammed Ali, the spokesman for the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), claims that the KURDISH government has not committed any illegal steps such that the conclusion by IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court has been politicised. Furthermore, Mohammed Ali claims that all the reactions in the post-referendum period have been highly politicised such that it is very unfortunate to see an entity such as IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court taking sides.
SYRIA News
Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN Army under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH focused their attention on ISIS in DEIR AL-ZOR while growing concerns mounted for civilians amid tense fighting. It is important to note that the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has made remarkable progress in the DEIR AL-ZOR region over the last six weeks liberating a significant portion of the province that was previously occupied by ISIS. Most recently, SAA units have made their way across several kilometers of territory south of the provincial capital of DEIR AL-ZOR putting them within striking distance of AL-MAYADEEN, ISIS’s new de facto capital in SYRIA. Last week the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) captured positions in the town of MEKHAN, south of AL-MAYADEEN close to the SYRIA’s border with IRAQ such that the SAA is now pushing further south towards the town of BOUKAMAL that, if seized by the SAA, would be a major loss for ISIS. Therefore, the Russian Defence Ministry now estimates that the ISIS terrorist group controls less than five per cent of SYRIA after losing large swathes of territory to the SDF opposition fighters; the U.S. led coalition, the SAA and Russian allied forces. However, estimates this week indicate that ISIS still controls over 60 kilometers of territory in the DEIR AL-ZOR Region, including several towns along the eastern and western banks of the EUPHRATES River. Among the occupied areas still under ISIS control are a group of towns that are located along the EUPHRATES River Valley including AL-ASHARAH, ABU HAMMAM, HAJEEN, AL-JALA and SOUSAH.
On a positive note, after U.S. backed fighters had surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA, they finally managed to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, have cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. Fighters of the U.S. backed, KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) punched their way through ISIS lines in RAQQA city as KURDISH forces literally shot their way through the streets of RAQQA, concentrating fire on ISIS positions hidden in the urban ruin of RAQQA city while ISIS fought back hard. On a positive note, the SDF announced that they have seized the center of RAQQA city where they have been thwarting car bombs and suicide attacks. After, heavy clashes between the SDF and the ISIS militants in the surrounding areas of RAQQA, final stages of the war against ISIS in RAQQA were reached after the opening by the SDF forces of a new front against ISIS on the northern edge of RAQQA. Meanwhile, witnesses of the aftermath of the battle for RAQQA duly noted that the victory celebrations by KURDISH forces felt muted as there were literally no civilians left in RAQQA such that it was the celebration of the liberation of a ghost town. However, Syrians hoping to return home to RAQQA now that RAQQA has been liberated from ISIS are being told to wait indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby some have already taking their toll in terms of human casualties. Nonetheless, the current SYRIAN government under the control of President Bashar al-Assad stated that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA, which was liberated from ISIS by the U.S. backed and KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In particular, the existing SYRIAN regime stated that both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders.
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as TURKEY’s excessive violation of freedom of the press has reached unreasonable proportions placing TURKEY among the most oppressive nations for journalists in the world. In my opinion, it is a crying shame that the U.S. and the E.U. who promote the free press as one of the main pillars of democracy have largely left Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan free to crush not only the free press but also the freedom of speech and peaceful demonstrations. In my opinion, the blatant hypocrisy here is that TURKEY, as a member of NATO, has violated every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. However, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to have given himself the right to ignore these principles without any significant reprimands from other NATO members. In my opinion, NATO needs to seriously consider kicking Turkey out of NATO, regardless of how difficult and complicated this extreme reprimand may be because TURKEY has long ago deviated from NATO, U.S. and E.U. principals while becoming an increasingly authoritarian country. That is, although TURKEY claims to be a democratic country, TURKEY under the control of the governing AKP has become an increasingly authoritarian regime that no longer fits in with NATO, U.S. and E.U. democracies. Furthermore, in my opinion, the governing AKP effectively utilizes the criminal justice system to prosecute journalists on false charges of terrorism, insulting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan or fabricating crimes against TURKEY. In particular, many journalists have been charged and convicted for reporting that TURKEY is supplying weapons to ISIS when TURKEY does in fact seem to have turned a blind eye to weapons smuggling to ISIS out of TURKEY and ISIS oil being smuggled into TURKEY.
In addition, the governing AKP regularly exerts tremendous pressure on various media organizations to dismiss journalists who write anything critical of the TURKISH government as investigative journalism is viewed as treason against TURKEY such that the governing AKP has effectively silenced any effort by journalists to investigate any wrongdoing by governing AKP officials including a rampant number of corruption cases that included several TURKISH ministers. In my opinion, TURKEY has set a dangerous precedent whereby fearing retribution from the police, even private news outlets no longer dare to report on anything which is not to the liking of the governing AKP including demonstrations or clashes related to the KURDISH issues while self-censorship by journalists has become a common practice in TURKEY resulting in the effective silencing of journalists. In my opinion, the violation of the free press in TURKEY and the systematic disrespect for human rights warrants NATO, the U.S. and the E.U. to re-evaluate their respective relationships with TURKEY and to stop searching for excuses to justify their silent complacence with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s outrageous and unacceptable behaviours which warrant kicking TURKEY out of NATO on the basis that democracy cannot be silenced with excessive force and aggression as this meets the definition of authoritarian communism.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Moving on to IRAQ, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after over one year of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power.
Now that the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly transferred from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred to as TAL AFAR and HAWIJA in a lightening fast military offensive, over 100 villages in the outskirts of HAWIJA still need to be purged to finalize the liberation of HAWIJA as to the extent armed ISIS militants are still at large, the liberation of HAWIJA cannot be deemed completed. In regards to the IRAQI forces campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants, Western ANBAR is the last region in IRAQ where ISIS held extensive stretches of territories. In my opinion, two key strongholds held by ISIS in western ANBAR were the towns of RAWA and AL QAIM near the IRAQI-SYRIAN border. However, with IRAQ’s prime minister, Haider al-Abadi announcing this week the recapture of AL-QAIM, ISIS’s last stronghold in IRAQ, ISIS seems to find itself hiding in remote places afraid to expose their ISIS flag and disgraced ISIS faces. It is important to note that Iraqi government forces have now driven ISIS out of about 95% of the land ISIS once held in IRAQ and freed more than 4.4 million IRAQIS from ISIS rule. In my opinion, AL-QAIM, RAWA and the nearby Syrian border town of ALBU KAMAL are of strategic importance to ISIS as the group used routes through these locations to transfer fighters, weapons and goods. Therefore, the towns are also symbolically important because they made up ISIS’s self-declared, cross-border EUPHRATES PROVINCE that was a symbol of ISIS’s intention to eradicate all of the region’s borders between IRAQ and SYRIA. However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of a new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
In regards to the IRAQI KURDS referendum on independence on September 25, 2017, it is still my opinion that the IRAQI KURDS have the right to pursue their independence pursuant to the majority win by the KURDS with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, albeit the reality that they seem to be moving way too fast given that the IRAQI government claims that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. In my opinion, the IRAQI KURDS still need to negotiate with the IRAQI government to respect the IRAQI constitution such that although the KURDISH vote was a clear indication of majority support for separation, the September 25 referendum only serves a symbolic victory thus far, as it cannot be supported legally without further negotiations with the IRAQI government. In my opinion, it is unfortunate that the U.S. two main allies in the fight against ISIS in IRAQ are now in a shooting war with each other over control of an oil-rich city that represents a fight that has the potential to throw IRAQ into chaos and possibly even a full-scale civil war. In summary, when ISIS took over IRAQ in 2014, this fight over KIRKUK and KURDISH independence got largely pushed to the back burner as both IRAQ and KURDISTAN focused on kicking ISIS out of the country. However, now that IRAQI and KURDISH forces have pushed ISIS out of most of IRAQ, these old divisions between IRAQ and KURDISTAN have once again exploded such that the fight over KIRKUK and KURDISH independence could end up once again destabilizing IRAQ all over again. It is important to note that although KURDISH leaders were willing to use the referendum results as an opening bid in negotiations with IRAQ over expanded autonomy, federal forces responded by retaking KIRKUK and other disputed areas outside the KURDS’ autonomous region with limited bloodshed as most KURDISH forces withdrew without a fight although scattered clashes did break out.
In my opinion, the international community needs to condemn IRAQ’s military aggression on the KURDS as excessive, unreasonable and unjustified, particularly in light of the fact that KURDISH blood soaks KIRKUK as it was the KURDS who stood tall against ISIS and refused to allow KIRKUK to fall while the IRAQI military shat full their overalls when ISIS was charging full speed while the KURDS refused to secede. Unfortunately, the U.S. is closely allied with both the IRAQI military and KURDISH forces, which together have driven ISIS out from most of IRAQ but although the battle against the ISIS extremists is not yet over, the dispute with the KURDS has diverted precious resources away from the war on ISIS. In my opinion, last weeks negotiations between IRAQI military officials and their KURDISH counterparts under the banner of the U.S. in FISH KHABUR to try to find a settlement for recent disputes and the threat of further military confrontation particularly over the border crossing points was critical to avert a full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the discussions last week seem to show that both the IRAQI and KURDISH militaries want to avoid a full fledge civil war as they both seem to be inclined to prefer to share in the oil rich jewels of KURDISTAN as opposed to risking the destruction of the entire region to end up winning the civil war but being left with nothing to show. However, this week’s decision by IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court concluding that the IRAQI constitution did not allow for the secession of any part of the country stressing the preservation of the unity and territorial integrity of IRAQ was a clear blow to the KURDISH dreams for independence. In my opinion, IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision ruling against secession following the Kurdish referendum for independence was highly politicised and part of a wider set of vengeful policies imposed by the IRAQI government or in simple ENGLISH a biased opinion against the KURDS. However, IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court is responsible for settling all disputes between IRAQ’s central government and regional provinces including the KURDISH government such that its rulings cannot be contested and will thus force the KURDISH government back to the negotiating table with the IRAQI government to avert another full fledged civil war. Unfortunately for the KURDS, now that the operations by the IRAQI government have effectively retaken five oil fields from the KURDISH forces in KIRKUK which has in essence crippled the KURDISH finances as the KURDS depended on revenues from KIRKUK’s oil exports to survive, combined with revenge by the IRAQI government with IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court ruling against the legality of the KURDISH referendum and separation drive, the KURDS are left with very few options in their quest to secede other than negotiations with the IRAQI regime.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN Army under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH now focused on targeting ISIS in DEIR AL-ZOR after letting ISIS withdraw from SYRIA’s border with LEBANON to the eastern province of DEIR AL-ZOR. This strategic shift in focus by the SYRIAN Army on ISIS is key to overall peace in the region as the only issue that everybody in the region seems to agree upon is that ISIS needs to be contained to an underground organization without any significant control of land particularly along any major borders. Thus, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, the strikes on ISIS around DEIR AL-ZOR were perfectly timed as ISIS has been losing momentum with recent losses in neighbouring IRAQ and SYRIA while also being hit hard elsewhere in SYRIA by SDF forces. In my opinion, for ISIS, the loss of AL-MAYADEEN is a bigger loss than their imminent defeat in RAQQA City as AL-MAYADEEN is located along the main road to ISIS’s most important IRAQI crossing at ALBUKAMAL. Furthermore, ALBUKAMAL is located directly west of the IRAQI city of AL-QA’IM that is another ISIS stronghold in the AL-ANBAR region that ISIS is desperately attempting to hold.
In my opinion, additional gains this week against the ISIS terrorist group that now controls less than five per cent of SYRIA after losing large swathes of territory to the SDF opposition fighters; the U.S. led coalition, the SAA and Russian allied forces represents a significant turning point in SYRIA. However, estimates this week indicate that ISIS still controls over 60 kilometers of territory in the DEIR AL-ZOR Region, including several towns along the eastern and western banks of the EUPHRATES River. In my opinion, the aforementioned towns are filled with thousands of ISIS fighters that are determined to make their final stand against both the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Therefore, for the Syrian Army, their elite Tiger Forces will be responsible for clearing the large ISIS pocket in DEIR AL-ZOR that could take months to complete as the Tiger Forces will make their push from the AL-MAYADEEN area while their allies from Hezbollah will advance northward from liberated ALBUKAMAL. However, as ISIS literally disappears from the face of the map in SYRIA, the question has become whether a race to conquer the oil rich regions could result in a showdown between the international coalitions consisting of the U.S. and SDF forces on the one side and the RUSSIAN and SAA forces on the other. In my opinion, a direct military confrontation is unlikely to take place but the SYRIAN regime is in great need of the region’s oil to boost its struggling economy after the U.S. seized oil fields in RAQQA, the AL-OMAR oil field and a natural gas field in DEIR EZ-ZOR. In my opinion, the realities of the ISIS organization are that ISIS will not disappear completely off the face of the map as they still have quite a bit of amassed wealth such that eventually some sort of ceasefire deal will need to be negotiated with ISIS to contain them to limited restricted areas as opposed to dispersing them across the globe and giving ISIS the opportunity to launch covert terrorist strikes globally.
In regards to U.S. backed fighters surrounding the Syrian city of RAQQA as they finally ousted the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA, capturing RAQQA represents a major achievement in the battle against ISIS and helps to bring an end to ISIS’s reign of terror trying to create a so-called Caliphate. In my opinion, ISIS has used RAQQA for over three years to stage deadly attacks on the Middle East and further overseas such that capturing RAQQA from ISIS significantly reduces ISIS’s terrorist capabilities in the future. Therefore, the strength of the ISIS terrorists is running out as their defeats thus far in RAQQA have undermined their morale and prevented them from fighting back effectively other than hiding behind innocent civilians as human shields. Unfortunately, the by-product of this liberation of RAQQA from ISIS appears to be the complete destruction of RAQQA that in my opinion can be attributed to the ALLIANCES’s relentless aerial bombardment of RAQQA to compensate for the weaknesses of its SDF forces on the ground. This was evident during victory celebrations by KURDISH forces that felt muted, as there were literally no civilians left in RAQQA such that it was the celebration of the liberation of a ghost town. In my opinion, ISIS is to blame for the complete destruction of RAQQA as with ISIS’s sole remaining technique of hiding behind civilians for cover, there was no other way to liberate RAQQA than via complete destruction of the city, the death and maiming of hundreds of civilians and the displacement of tens of thousands. In my opinion, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 272” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace whereas the violation of the free press in TURKEY and the systematic disrespect for human rights warrants NATO, the U.S. and the E.U. to re-evaluate their respective relationships with TURKEY and to stop searching for excuses to justify their silent complacence with TURKEY’s outrageous and unacceptable behaviours which warrant kicking TURKEY out of NATO on the basis that democracy cannot be silenced with excessive force and aggression as this meets the definition of authoritarian communism.
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