In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 287” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the current situation in AFRIN necessitated the KURDISH YPG and SYRIAN regime to form a strategic alliance against the TURKS which demonstrates that when one has their back up against the wall, one must always choose between the lesser of two evils in order to be able to hold ones ground such that one must form an alliance with the party that will allow one to survive, even if that party would not be ideal if one had the choice under sunny skies, as one must do whatever it takes to survive while acknowledging that alone one will certainly fall such that one does not have a choice but to form a strategic alliance with the party who provides the possibility to hold ones ground and stand tall.
TURKEY News
As a friendly reminder, TURKEY has been on the defense ever since an internal military “Coup D’État” failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP focused their attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say that the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants.
During the week ending on Sunday, February 25, 2018, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures although TURKEY’s crushing of the free press, destruction of the freedom of speech and restrictions to the right to peaceful demonstrations seems to be punishing the TURKISH economy as high inflation in TURKEY and a surge in foreign borrowing by TURKISH banks could plunge TURKEY into an economic crisis as soon as 2018. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKEY hammered the KURDS in AFRIN as KURDISH families hid in their basements to seek shelter, huddled on blankets in dimly lit caves, hid in the rubble of bombed-out buildings and others gathered around campfires as TURKEY’s military offensive in SYRIA against the U.S. backed KURDISH militias has driven civilians underground. The fighting that has resulted in relentless airstrikes has displaced an estimated 16,000 people as shelling has resulted in AFRIN streets laying deserted with crumpled cars, debris and gaping holes where shops once stood. However, this week TURKEY’s month-long offensive against the KURDISH YPG in AFRIN which is in northern SYRIA has opened up a new conflict in the seven-year SYRIAN war as TURKISH forces fired artillery at SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad militias trying to enter AFRIN. As a friendly reminder, the main KURDISH militia, the YPG, previously benefited from being a U.S. ally as the KURDS took back territory from ISIS while establishing a semi-autonomous region called ROJAVA that included AFRIN although the U.S. has not directly provided support to the KURDS in AFRIN as there was no ISIS presence to fight. TURKEY sees the KURDISH YPG as terrorists and an extension of the separatist KURDISH PKK militia that has fought with TURKEY for decades such that TURKEY was furious to see the YPG establish control over a semi-autonomous region called ROJAVA. Therefore, TURKEY’s goal now appears to be to takeover the KURDISH region of ROJAVA in SYRIA that borders with TURKEY by creating an 18-mile wide buffer zone between the TURKISH border and the KURDISH held areas.
Unfortunately for the KURDISH YPG, without the U.S. air support as was the case in their battles against ISIS, the KURDS suffered great losses in AFRIN such that the KURDISH goal is to minimize the damage and safeguard territory further east, including areas containing oil fields, such that the KURDISH YPG were forced to turn to President Bashar al-Assad for assistance as the fight in AFRIN has put the U.S. in an awkward position by placing the YPG, its reliable partner in the fight against ISIS, against its NATO ally, TURKEY. Therefore, the U.S. does not want to abandon the KURDISH YPG but the U.S. also knows that any fracture in the NATO alliance with TURKEY is a boost for RUSSIA which wants to replace the U.S. as the great power in the Middle East. For now, the U.S. is able to ignore AFRIN because the U.S. only cooperates directly with the KURDISH YPG further east where they have been battling ISIS. However, if Turkey expands its offensive eastward, it risks direct confrontation with U.S. soldiers in MANBIJ. In the meantime, the U.S. has tried to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict in AFRIN and has thus dispatched several high-profile U.S. officials to meet TURKISH government officials. On the other hand, SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad has long had an open relationship with the KURDS although he has always opposed the KURDISH desire to create a semi-autonomous region called ROJAVA. Nonetheless, President Bashar al-Assad has occasionally provided assistance to the KURDS while keeping an open door policy for negotiations such that President Bashar al-Assad sent hundreds of militias to help the KURDS in AFRIN where they were met with heavy TURKISH artillery fire.
IRAQ News
As a friendly reminder, IRAQI and ALLIED forces have pushed ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces first liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety subsequent to ALLIANCE forces seizing complete control of western MOSUL from ISIS. It is important to note that IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS to the point of ISIS relinquishing control of MOSUL as the world watched the scenes of jubilation as IRAQI forces liberated the OLD MOSUL City from ISIS. However, with 40,000 plus dead in the battle to take back OLD MOSUL City from ISIS, the scale of civilian casualties reveals a massacre with many bodies still buried under the rubble and the level of human suffering immense. However, many ISIS militias have taken to the hills and began to wage a classic rural guerrilla war, while some ISIS sleeper cells have also been activated at the border of Baghdad, the IRAQI capital. Thus, ISIS has now returned to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group as the Islamic State of IRAQ and SYRIA can no longer call itself a state as ISIS has lost all capacity to act as a state but rather ISIS now stands exposed as a GANGSTER sham.
On the heels of the IRAQI military victory in MOSUL, IRAQI forces broke through ISIS’s defences inside the northern city of TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL-QAIM as IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared victory over ISIS. In addition, IRAQI pro-government forces completed their long awaited operation to completely destroy ISIS’s caliphate in IRAQ with their campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants. In particular, IRAQI forces recaptured the last bastion of ISIS in IRAQ as soldiers, police, Sunni tribesmen and mostly Shia paramilitary fighters took part in the assault on RAWA in the Euphrates river valley close to the border with SYRIA. Meanwhile this week, ISIS claimed responsibility for a deadly attack on a SHIITE militia group near the IRAQI city of HAWIJA in the form of an ambush that killed more than two-dozen IRAQI soldiers. This was the deadliest attack against IRAQ’s Shiite-led Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) since IRAQI forces took over HAWIJA from the ISIS in October. It appears that dozens of ISIS militants attacked several PMU military checkpoints on a highway near the town of HAWIJA by surprise as the PMU, an independent military force of about 110,000 fighters, has been at the forefront of the fight against ISIS in Iraq.
As a friendly reminder, the KURDS still consider the September 25 referendum victory as the culmination of decades of struggle for a KURDISH state of their own although the IRAQI government has clearly stated that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. However, after the votes were tallied and the referendum passed with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, Iraq’s top SHIITE cleric out right rejected the outcome of KURDISTAN’s independence vote despite the overwhelming 92% voting in favour of separating from IRAQ. Subsequently, IRAQI forces along with IRANIAN trained paramilitaries deployed heavy weaponry build up in KIRKUK, the jewel of the proposed future KURDISTAN state enabling IRAQI forces to take control of all major areas of KIRKUK province from KURDISH YPG fighters. In particular, IRAQI forces took ALTON KUPRI, the oil-rich province of KURDISTAN as rocket; artillery and heavy machine-gun fire erupted in the region.
Subsequently, IRAQI Kurdish authorities stated that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession. However, the KURDS also stated that this decision must become a basis for starting an inclusive national dialogue between KURDISTAN and IRAQ to resolve all disputes through implementation of all constitutional articles and in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution because all elements of the IRAQI Constitution must be respected in order to secure the unity of IRAQ. Meanwhile, this week, IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi vowed to lift an air embargo imposed on the KURDISTAN Region if KURDISH authorities yield to the IRAQI government’s conditions. However, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi made it clear that IRAQ is no different than other countries whereby border crossings are in the hands of the federal government such that the IRAQI government will only lift the international embargo on KURDISTAN’s airports after all of the IRAQI governments demands are fulfilled.
Nonetheless, the salient point of disagreement stems from the IRAQI Federal Government deeming the referendum vote as unconstitutional while the KURDISH leadership reaffirms the referendums legitimacy on the basis that it was supported by the majority of the people living in the KURDISTAN Region and was justified on the basis that IRAQI officials have regularly violated over 55 articles of the IRAQI Constitution. IRAQI President Fuad Masoum held talks with two of his deputies, Nouri Al Maliki and Ayad Allawi to discuss the political and security situation in IRAQ whereby they debated IRAQ’s upcoming elections, the federal budget law and the situation in the oil-rich city of KIRKUK. The three men called for an immediate dialogue between the IRAQI and KURDISH governments under the supervision of the IRAQI presidency and the support of the UNITED NATIONS to restore relations between the two sides on the basis of the IRAQI constitution.
SYRIA News
As a friendly reminder, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH have made remarkable progress in the DEIR AL-ZOR region over the last several months liberating most of the province that was previously occupied by ISIS. Most recently, SAA units have made their way across several kilometers of territory south of the provincial capital of DEIR AL-ZOR striking ISIS in AL-MAYADEEN, ISIS’s new de facto capital in SYRIA. Therefore, the Russian Defence Ministry now estimates that the ISIS terrorist group controls less than five per cent of SYRIA after losing large swathes of territory to the SDF opposition fighters; the U.S. led coalition, the SAA and Russian allied forces. However, ISIS still controls several towns along the eastern and western banks of the EUPHRATES River. Among the occupied areas still under ISIS control are a group of towns that are located along the EUPHRATES River Valley including AL-ASHARAH, ABU HAMMAM, HAJEEN, AL-JALA and SOUSAH. However, the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declared that they have completely wiped out ISIS in Syria.
Meanwhile, this week, TURKISH artillery continued to fire into SYRIA’s AFRIN region using air power, artillery and ground troops that has alarmed the U.S. that has supported the KURDISH YPG in fighting against ISIS in northern Syria. In an unusual twist of fate, SYRIA’s deputy foreign minister called on KURDS and ARABS in AFRIN to unite against TURKEY’s Operation Olive Branch as Deputy Minister Fayssal Mikdad clearly stated that AFRIN is an integral party of the SYRIAN Arab Republic. Therefore, President Bashar al-Assad sent hundreds of SYRIAN militias to help the KURDS in AFRIN where they were met with heavy TURKISH artillery fire. RUSSIA has remained relatively silent during these recent manoeuvrings although RUSSIA wants to project itself as the main foreign arbitrator in SYRIA and the conflict in AFRIN given that RUSSIA has also created working relations with the KURDISH YPG by inviting the KURDS to a peace congress in SOCHI and granting more formal recognition to the KURDS in SYRIA. Meanwhile, IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani, a staunch ally of the SYRIAN regime, has denounced the TURKISH invasion of AFRIN stating that any foreign intervention needs authorization from the SYRIAN regime. Meanwhile, the SYRIAN militias entering AFRIN are believed to be IRANIAN trained such that their presence would put IRANIAN proxies on the border with TURKEY and strengthen IRAN’s foothold in the area.
As a friendly reminder, after U.S. backed fighters had surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA, they finally managed to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. Fighters of the U.S. backed, KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) punched their way through ISIS lines in RAQQA city as KURDISH forces literally shot their way through the streets of RAQQA, concentrating fire on ISIS positions hidden in the urban ruin of RAQQA city while ISIS fought back hard. Meanwhile, witnesses of the aftermath of the battle for RAQQA duly noted that the victory celebrations by KURDISH forces felt muted as there were literally no civilians left in RAQQA such that it was the celebration of the liberation of a ghost town. However, Syrians hoping to return home to RAQQA now that RAQQA has been liberated from ISIS are being told to wait indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby some have already taken their toll in terms of human casualties.
Nonetheless, the current SYRIAN government under the control of President Bashar al-Assad stated that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA, which was liberated from ISIS by the U.S. backed and KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In particular, the existing SYRIAN regime stated that both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime. Meanwhile, this week, the UN Secretary General has demanded an immediate end to the fighting in EASTERN GHOUTA in SYRIA, describing the rebel enclave as a hell on earth. EASTERN GHOUTA has been under fierce bombardment from SYRIAN government forces backed by RUSSIAN airpower and is the last major rebel held area near the SYRIAN capital of Damascus. The SYRIAN military says it is trying to liberate the area from what it terms as terrorists but it has also been accused of targeting civilians.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the KURDS as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis.
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKEY hammered the KURDS in AFRIN as TURKEY’s military offensive in SYRIA against the U.S. backed KURDISH militias has driven civilians underground in what from the KURDISH perspective appears to be a massacre. In my opinion, the fight for AFRIN has highlighted the powers of international players in SYRIA consisting currently of TURKEY followed by RUSSIA, IRAN and the U.S. all vying for positions in SYRIA as ISIS disappears off the face of the map. However, given TURKEY’s goal to takeover the KURDISH region of ROJAVA in SYRIA that borders with TURKEY combined with the KURDISH YPG losing support from its U.S. allies as the U.S. does not want to go to war directly with TURKEY, its NATO ally, the KURDISH YPG had no choice but to turn to President Bashar al-Assad for support. Therefore, I was not surprised to see President Bashar al-Assad send in hundreds of SYRIAN militias to help the KURDS in AFRIN where they were obviously met with TURKISH artillery fire.
In my opinion, President Bashar al-Assad made the right strategic decision to back the KURDS in AFRIN as by protecting the KURDS in AFRIN, the SYRIAN regime could win control over the area and gain potential leverage with the KURDS for the future as the SYRIAN government wants to reclaim all KURDISH areas, including oil fields in the east as part of the SYRIAN governments desire to maintain the existing borders of SYRIA intact. Furthermore, in my opinion, the KURDISH YPG without the SYRIAN regime stand very little chance of successfully defending AFRIN against the TURKISH invasion such that the KURDISH YPG had their backs up against the wall which forced them to turn to President Bashar al-Assad for help in defending against the TURKISH assault. In addition, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who uses anti-KURDISH slogans to fuel nationalist fury in TURKEY is unlikely to relent until the KURDISH expansion is rolled back from the TURKISH border either through force or he may ultimately be forced to accept the SYRIAN regime taking control of AFRIN, even though he is opposed to it currently, as he sees the KURDS as more of an existential threat than the SYRIAN regime. Therefore, the current situation in AFRIN whereby the KURDISH YPG and SYRIAN regime have formed a strategic alliance against the TURKS depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby, when one has their back up against the wall, one must always choose between the lesser of two evils in order to be able to hold ones ground such that one must form an alliance with the party that will allow one to survive, even if that party would not be ideal if one had the choice under sunny skies, as one must do whatever it takes to survive while acknowledging that alone one will certainly fall such that one does not have a choice but to form a strategic alliance with the party who provides the possibility to hold ones ground and stand tall.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after over one year of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power.
Now that the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly transferred from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred to as TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL-QAIM in a lightening fast military offensive. In regards to the IRAQI forces campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants, Western ANBAR is the last region in IRAQ where ISIS held extensive stretches of territories. It is important to note that Iraqi government forces have now driven ISIS out of about 95% of the land ISIS once held in IRAQ and freed more than 4.4 million IRAQIS from ISIS rule. In my opinion, RAWA and the nearby Syrian border town of ALBU KAMAL are of strategic importance to ISIS as the group used routes through these locations to transfer fighters, weapons and goods. Therefore, the towns are also symbolically important because they made up ISIS’s self-declared, cross-border EUPHRATES PROVINCE that was a symbol of ISIS’s intention to eradicate all of the region’s borders between IRAQ and SYRIA. Therefore, since MOSUL was declared free, IRAQI security forces continue to comb western MOSUL areas for hidden ISIS cells despite the victory over ISIS as ISIS is still considered to be a significant security threat even after ISIS’s defeat at its main havens across IRAQI provinces. Therefore, KURDISH and IRAQI forces still need to be vigilant for ISIS reunions to launch attacks through small covert groups of suicide attackers. In my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Hider al-Abadi’s announcement of full liberation of IRAQI lands with an official declaration of an end of the war against ISIS is accurate in theory but not in practice as significant ISIS fighters are still hiding underground like rats. In my opinion, this week’s ISIS deadly attack on a SHIITE militia group near the IRAQI city of HAWIJA in the form of an ambush that killed more than two-dozen IRAQI soldiers needs to be responded to with force and determination to send ISIS the clear message that the existence of ISIS as a criminal organization in IRAQ will not be tolerated. Furthermore, ISIS needs to be brought to justice for such heinous ambush attacks, as the IRAQI forces must set the precedent that mass killings will result in a relentless manhunt until the perpetrators are brought to justice.
However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
As a friendly reminder, it is still my opinion that after the IRAQI KURDS referendum on independence on September 25, 2017, the IRAQI KURDS still have the right to pursue their independence pursuant to the majority win by the KURDS with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, albeit the fact that the IRAQI government claims that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. In my opinion, the IRAQI KURDS still need to negotiate with the IRAQI government to respect the IRAQI constitution such that although the KURDISH vote was a clear indication of majority support for separation, the September 25 referendum only serves a symbolic victory thus far, as it cannot be supported legally without further negotiations with the IRAQI government. It is important to note that although KURDISH leaders were willing to use the referendum results as an opening bid in negotiations with IRAQ over expanded autonomy, federal forces responded by retaking KIRKUK and other disputed areas outside the KURDS’ autonomous region with limited bloodshed as most KURDISH forces withdrew without a fight although scattered clashes did break out.
However, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. In my opinion, this week’s commitment by IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to lift an air embargo imposed on the KURDISTAN Region if KURDISH authorities yield to the IRAQI government’s conditions is easier said than done as IRAQ has asked the KURDS to hand over management of the airports to IRAQI central aviation authorities as well as revoke the results of the controversial referendum. Therefore, in my opinion, the embargo should be lifted gradually over time as IRAQI KURDS advance in their negotiations like this week when the embargo was partially lifted to run pilgrim flights from and to SULAIMANIYAH and ERBIL airports.
In my opinion, these are challenging times for the KURDISH region such that KURDISH frustrations are understandable but the KURDISH extremist violence is never acceptable so that the KURDS need to conduct their protests peacefully. In my opinion, the KURDISH government has exercised commendable restraint to avoid a full fledge civil war bloodbath with recent concessions made by the KURDISH government to the IRAQI government that clearly demonstrates that the KURDS desire to reach a peaceful negotiated settlement to this conflict. Therefore, I am now convinced more than ever that constructive dialogue can begin between the KURDISH and IRAQI governments that will result in a peaceful long-term sustainable solution.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, it finally does appear that ISIS has been defeated in DEIR AL-ZOR, AL-MAYADEEN and AL-BUKAMAL albeit violent clashes that sporadically continue to erupt around the town as ISIS finds itself trapped like rats underground only to be swept to the surface as the SAA goes through their respective sweeping operations across the outskirts of town. However, with the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declaring that they have completely wiped out ISIS in SYRIA, I expect that the remaining ISIS militants will be hiding in small towns and villages along the border with IRAQ in the SYRIAN dessert such that the remaining portion of no mans land along the Middle Euphrates River Valley will most likely represent ISIS’s last stand. In my opinion, ISIS still controls thousands of square kilometres of desert in the DEIR AL-ZOR, HOMS, IDLIB and DARAA regions such that although ISIS has been forced out of major SYRIAN cities, ISIS is still able to stage attacks on SAA and other rebel forces from these desert areas such that victory may have been achieved albeit ISIS still existing as a thorn in everybodies sides.
However, this week, I was surprised to see TURKISH artillery continuing to fire into SYRIA’s AFRIN region out of pure infuriation over the announcement of U.S. plans to train a 30,000 border force in the area of northern SYRIA where KURDISH YPG dominated forces drove out ISIS fighters last year while TURKEY now promises to strangle the KURDISH terrorist force before it is ever able to come into existence. In my opinion, when war reached AFRIN, it arrived with vengeance as TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan now promised to take TURKEY’s SYRIA operations to IDLIB after completing TURKEY’s current mission in AFRIN where TURKEY is still targeting all KURDISH militants. In my opinion, in an unusual twist of fate, SYRIA’s deputy foreign minister called on KURDS and ARABS in AFRIN to unite against TURKEY’s Operation Olive Branch as Deputy Minister Fayssal Mikdad such that this week the KURDS and the SAA look ready, willing and able to fight TURKEY in unison that from my perspective is the only viable option to prevent TURKEY from steam rolling over the northern border area between SYRIA and TURKEY. In regards to RUSSIA remaining relatively silent during these recent manoeuvrings, I believe RUSSIA will eventually have to intervene as the only viable party in the region to negotiate an overall restructuring of SYRIA. In my opinion, only RUSSIA has the possibility to negotiate a deal between ALL parties because RUSSIA has worked with most major players in SYRIA to create several de-escalation zones where fighting has stopped and the opposition movements have been allowed to remain in control. In regards to IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani, a staunch ally of the SYRIAN regime, denouncing the TURKISH invasion of AFRIN stating that any foreign intervention needs authorization from the SYRIAN regime, I agree with him because after seven years of one of the bloodiest civil wars in history, TURKEY, the U.S. and IRAN should all eventually plan to pull out while transferring control to the SYRIAN regime with proportionate control to the KURDISH YPG and Free Syrian Army (FSA) as this war must come to an end which can never occur to the extent proxy countries such as TURKEY, the U.S. and IRAN are involved. Meanwhile, in my opinion, if the only option the KURDISH YPG has to repel the TURKISH attack on AFRIN are the SYRIAN militias who are believed to be IRANIAN trained, so be it, as long as they can get the job done to stave off TURKEY’s attempts at an invasion. In my opinion, the SYRIANS need to regain control of their own country and decide on their own future in unison such that a united stand between the SYRIAN Regime and the KURDISH YPG will force TURKEY to stand down and come back to the negotiating table on behalf of the FSA to once and for all put an end to this insane bloodbath.
In regards to the Syrian city of RAQQA, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires. In my opinion, now in its seventh year, the war in SYRIA has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society.
However, as ISIS literally disappears from the face of the map in SYRIA, the question has become whether a race to conquer the oil rich regions could result in a showdown between the international coalitions consisting of the U.S. and SDF forces on the one side and the RUSSIAN and SAA forces on the other. In my opinion, a direct military confrontation is unlikely to take place but the SYRIAN regime is in great need of the region’s oil to boost its struggling economy after the U.S. seized oil fields in RAQQA, the AL-OMAR oil field and a natural gas field in DEIR EZ-ZOR. Therefore, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS.
Nonetheless, this week, it was sad to see the war in SYRIA entering into a dangerous new phase as EASTERN GHOUTA under attack by SYRIAN Regime forces on so-called SYRIAN rebel terrorists is a human tragedy that is unfolding before everybodies eyes such that in my opinion the international community cannot let things keep going in this horrendous fashion. In my opinion, an end to the fighting would allow the evacuation of hundreds of people who require urgent treatment as well as allowing humanitarian aid to reach the region. Every day that I follow this war, I ask myself how much more cruelty will it take before the international community takes strong and concerted actions to bring this monstrous, Barbarian and Neanderthal military campaign of annihilation to an end. In my opinion, although RUSSIA that supports the SYRIAN government claims peace talks with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) have failed while calling for an urgent UN Security Council meeting to discuss the violence in the EASTERN GHOUTA region, there must be a better way than this grotesque savagery that is currently taking place whereby the SYRIAN army seems to be targeting everything from shops, markets, hospitals, schools & mosques with literally ten to twenty air strikes every minute. With at least 350 civilians killed and over 1,000 injured in less than a week, mostly in airstrikes, I cannot understand how this can be seen as the only viable solution to end this conflict in EASTERN GHOUTA without concluding that everybody has gone completely mad.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 287” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the current situation in AFRIN necessitated the KURDISH YPG and SYRIAN regime to form of a strategic alliance against the TURKS which demonstrates that when one has their back up against the wall, one must always choose between the lesser of two evils in order to be able to hold ones ground such that one must form an alliance with the party that will allow one to survive, even if that party would not be ideal if one had the choice under sunny skies, as one must do whatever it takes to survive while acknowledging that alone one will certainly fall such that one does not have a choice but to form a strategic alliance with the party who provides the possibility to hold ones ground and stand tall.
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