World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 285

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 285” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders whereby the TURKISH spin clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the easiest method to tarnish the reputation of the opposition is to accuse them of being terrorists based on gossip, rumours and fictitious allegations, as on the basis of terrorism one is able to circumvent all laws, violate all civil rights and liberties and essentially operate under the NAZI principal of guilty until proven innocent by mere association to a specific ethnic race, religion and culture with complete and utter disrespect for human dignity on the basis of hate induced coma states of poisoned minds perceiving the opposition as repugnant, vial and nasty rodents that must all be exterminated without exception as all are in substance contaminated with virus of exceptionalism.

TURKEY News

During the week ending on Sunday, February 11, 2018, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP focused their attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants.

Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures although TURKEY’s crushing of the free press, destruction of the freedom of speech and restrictions to the right to peaceful demonstrations seems to be punishing the TURKISH economy as high inflation in TURKEY and a surge in foreign borrowing by TURKISH banks could plunge TURKEY into an economic crisis as soon as 2018. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKEY hammered the KURDS in AFRIN as KURDISH families hid in their basements to seek shelter, huddled on blankets in dimly lit caves, hid in the rubble of bombed-out buildings and others gathered around campfires as TURKEY’s military offensive in SYRIA against the U.S. backed KURDISH militias has driven civilians underground. The fighting that has resulted in relentless airstrikes has displaced an estimated 16,000 people as shelling has resulted in AFRIN streets laying deserted with crumpled cars, debris and gaping holes where shops once stood. However, this week as TURKEY pressed forward with its offensive against KURDISH YPG fighters across the border in northern SYRIA, TURKISH frontier towns like REYHANLI have found themselves in the line of fire between the region’s warring rivals. It seems that mortar strikes launched by KURDISH YPG forces are landing daily, placing TURKISH communities already transformed by SYRIA’s war on edge and creating internal resentment against TURKEY’s military operation. Nonetheless, popular support for TURKEY’s military operation against the KURDISH YPG appears to be widespread with newspapers promoting the military campaign on the basis of TURKISH nationalism. Therefore, with the mass TURKISH population supporting the TURKISH military campaign, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government has shown little tolerance for criticism by arresting hundreds who dared to do denounce the current TURKISH military campaign. However, as TURKISH forces along with thousands of Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels attack through the mountains surrounding AFRIN, the KURDISH YPG seem to have struck back with cross-border shelling resulting in seven people killed and more than 110 wounded across KILIS and HATAY provinces in TURKEY since the TURKISH operations began.

In an unusual manoeuvre, two senior U.S. generals came to the front lines outside the SYRIAN city of MANBIJ flying huge U.S. flags on their vehicles to insure TURKISH forces just on the other side of what has once again become no man’s land realized that U.S. forces were present in order for the TURKISH forces to avoid a direct confrontation in the area. The trip was the U.S. generals was the first by such senior U.S. military officers to the front lines in MANBIJ since TURKEY’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to attack the city of MANBIJ after calling MANBIJ a bastion of terrorists and demanding that the U.S. forces leave. However, the U.S. have refused and thus have created the potential for an unprecedented armed conflict between two NATO allies, the U.S. and TURKEY which represents the latest unusual twist in this seven-year-old war in SYRIA. It is important to note that the U.S. has vowed to stay in MANBIJ and support their KURDISH YPG allies but the U.S. forces in MANBIJ number only a few hundred out of a total of 2,000 U.S. troops remaining in all of northern SYRIA, consisting mostly of Special Operations forces. Meanwhile, the Turkish forces and their allied rebels from the Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighting around Afrin are estimated at over 20,000 in total. However, both the TURKISH and U.S. militaries have substantial air force power remaining in the surrounding areas.

IRAQ News

Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and ALLIED forces have pushed ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces first liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety subsequent to ALLIANCE forces seizing complete control of western MOSUL from ISIS. It is important to note that IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS to the point of ISIS relinquishing control of MOSUL as the world watched the scenes of jubilation as IRAQI forces liberated the OLD MOSUL City from ISIS. However, with 40,000 plus dead in the battle to take back OLD MOSUL City from ISIS, the scale of civilian casualties reveals a massacre with many bodies still buried under the rubble and the level of human suffering immense. However, many ISIS militias have taken to the hills and began to wage a classic rural guerrilla war, while some ISIS sleeper cells have also been activated at the border of Baghdad, the IRAQI capital. Thus, ISIS has now returned to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group as the Islamic State of IRAQ and SYRIA can no longer call itself a state as ISIS has lost all capacity to act as a state but rather ISIS now stands exposed as a GANGSTER sham.

On the heels of the IRAQI military victory in MOSUL, IRAQI forces broke through ISIS’s defences inside the northern city of TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL-QAIM as IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared victory over ISIS. In addition, IRAQI pro-government forces completed their long awaited operation to completely destroy ISIS’s caliphate in IRAQ with their campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants. In particular, IRAQI forces recaptured the last bastion of ISIS in IRAQ as soldiers, police, Sunni tribesmen and mostly Shia paramilitary fighters took part in the assault on RAWA in the Euphrates river valley close to the border with SYRIA. Meanwhile this week, it was announced that the number of U.S. forces in IRAQ will be reduced after the government in IRAQ declared victory over ISIS as the U.S. led coalition fighting ISIS announced a shift in focus in its military campaign in IRAQ. That is, the U.S. led forces will shift their focus in IRAQ from enabling combat operations to sustaining military gains against ISIS although it is not yet clear where the U.S. forces will go although U.S. President Donald Trump did announce last year that U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan would rise. However, the U.S. claim that their enduring presence as invited guests in IRAQ will shift to focus more on policing, border control and military building capacity growing in order to sustain the successful momentum and enhance the capacities of the IRAQI Security Forces in pursuing ISIS, now and in the future. Ironically, the IRAQI government remained relatively vague in terms of future U.S. forces presence in IRAQ other than stating that IRAQ would coordinate U.S. troop presence with the U.S. led coalition to determine the appropriate level of U.S. presence and the nature of involvement for the next phase of IRAQI containment of ISIS.

Meanwhile, the KURDS still consider the September 25 referendum victory as the culmination of decades of struggle for a KURDISH state of their own although the IRAQI government has clearly stated that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. However, after the votes were tallied and the referendum passed with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, Iraq’s top SHIITE cleric out right rejected the outcome of KURDISTAN’s independence vote despite the overwhelming 92% voting in favour of separating from IRAQ. Subsequently, IRAQI forces along with IRANIAN trained paramilitaries deployed heavy weaponry build up in KIRKUK, the jewel of the proposed future KURDISTAN state enabling IRAQI forces to take control of all major areas of KIRKUK province from KURDISH YPG fighters. In particular, IRAQI forces took ALTON KUPRI, the oil-rich province of KURDISTAN as rocket; artillery and heavy machine-gun fire erupted in the region.

Ironically, IRAQI military officials and their KURDISH counterparts went into a round of talks under the banner of the U.S. in FISH KHABUR to try to find a settlement for disputes and the threat of further military confrontation particularly over the border crossing points. It seems that both sides have agreed on some points and are close to reaching a final agreement although no agreement has yet been signed or made public. Apparently, the IRAQI military side were adamant that the FISH KHABOUR border crossing should be handed over to IRAQI military but agreed for KURDISH border guards presence as well as a U.S. force to run the border crossing in tandem. In regards to Kurdish areas outside the Kurdistan Region still held by the KURDS including SHEIKHAN, MAHMODIYA, SAHELA, ALQOSH, GWER and KHAZIR, it seems that these areas will be run jointly between the KURDISH and IRAQI armies. Also of critical importance, the two sides are also working to negotiate a truce after deadly clashes erupted in some of the disputed territories near the SYRIAN border and south of ERBIL.

As a friendly reminder, IRAQI Kurdish authorities stated that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession. However, the KURDS also stated that this decision must become a basis for starting an inclusive national dialogue between KURDISTAN and IRAQ to resolve all disputes through implementation of all constitutional articles and in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution because all elements of the IRAQI Constitution must be respected in order to secure the unity of IRAQ. Meanwhile, this week, IRAQ’s oil ministry signed a contract with RANYA International to build a refinery with the production capacity of 70,000 BPD in KIRKUK province. The Project falls into the plans and programs by IRAQ’s oil ministry for meeting the internal demand of oil while exporting the surplus as the signing of the contract complements the efforts of the IRAQI oil ministry to develop the oil industry in the KIRKUK province. It is also important to note that other refineries will also be created as part of the strategic projects initiated by the IRAQI oil ministry to increase national production of oil in order to increase financial income of the IRAQI government treasuries.

Nonetheless, the salient point of disagreement stems from the IRAQI Federal Government deeming the referendum vote as unconstitutional while the KURDISH leadership reaffirms the referendums legitimacy on the basis that it was supported by the majority of the people living in the KURDISTAN Region and was justified on the basis that IRAQI officials have regularly violated over 55 articles of the IRAQI Constitution. IRAQI President Fuad Masoum held talks with two of his deputies, Nouri Al Maliki and Ayad Allawi to discuss the political and security situation in IRAQ whereby they debated IRAQ’s upcoming elections, the federal budget law and the situation in the oil-rich city of KIRKUK. The three men called for an immediate dialogue between the IRAQI and KURDISH governments under the supervision of the IRAQI presidency and the support of the UNITED NATIONS to restore relations between the two sides on the basis of the IRAQI constitution.

SYRIA News

Moving on to SYRIA, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH have made remarkable progress in the DEIR AL-ZOR region over the last several months liberating most of the province that was previously occupied by ISIS. Most recently, SAA units have made their way across several kilometers of territory south of the provincial capital of DEIR AL-ZOR striking ISIS in AL-MAYADEEN, ISIS’s new de facto capital in SYRIA. Therefore, the Russian Defence Ministry now estimates that the ISIS terrorist group controls less than five per cent of SYRIA after losing large swathes of territory to the SDF opposition fighters; the U.S. led coalition, the SAA and Russian allied forces. However, ISIS still controls several towns along the eastern and western banks of the EUPHRATES River. Among the occupied areas still under ISIS control are a group of towns that are located along the EUPHRATES River Valley including AL-ASHARAH, ABU HAMMAM, HAJEEN, AL-JALA and SOUSAH. However, the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declared that they have completely wiped out ISIS in Syria. Meanwhile, this week, TURKISH artillery continued to fire into SYRIA’s AFRIN region using air power, artillery and ground troops that has alarmed the U.S. that has supported the KURDISH YPG in fighting against ISIS in northern Syria. The clashes that have followed TURKEY’s incursion into AFRIN have killed dozens, many of them civilians, wounded several hundred and led thousands of refugees to flee across ravaged and lawless lands to the south and east. TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan promised to take TURKEY’s SYRIA operations to IDLIB after completing TURKEY’s current mission in AFRIN where TURKEY is still targeting all KURDISH militants. Meanwhile, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke with RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin regarding the situation in SYRIA whereby they both agreed to hold another three-way summit on SYRIA with RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN in TURKEY.

On a positive note, after U.S. backed fighters had surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA, they finally managed to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. Fighters of the U.S. backed, KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) punched their way through ISIS lines in RAQQA city as KURDISH forces literally shot their way through the streets of RAQQA, concentrating fire on ISIS positions hidden in the urban ruin of RAQQA city while ISIS fought back hard. Meanwhile, witnesses of the aftermath of the battle for RAQQA duly noted that the victory celebrations by KURDISH forces felt muted as there were literally no civilians left in RAQQA such that it was the celebration of the liberation of a ghost town. However, Syrians hoping to return home to RAQQA now that RAQQA has been liberated from ISIS are being told to wait indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby some have already taken their toll in terms of human casualties.

Nonetheless, the current SYRIAN government under the control of President Bashar al-Assad stated that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA, which was liberated from ISIS by the U.S. backed and KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In particular, the existing SYRIAN regime stated that both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime. Meanwhile, this week, SYRIA has accused the U.S. of carrying out a brutal massacre with a bombing attack in DEIR AL-ZOR province overnight with air and artillery strikes killing an estimated 100 SYRIAN government fighters near the EUPHRATES river. However, the U.S. claims that it was exercising its right to self-defence by responding to an attack on its ALLIANCE forces on the ground. The strikes happened in the middle of the EUPHRATES valley that serves as an informal separation line in eastern SYRIA whereby the SYRIAN Government controls the western side and the U.S. backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) control the east. The two sides have clashed over the past year while trying to drive ISIS militants from their last major stronghold in SYRIA and this time the U.S. claims that forces aligned with the SYRIAN government crossed the agreed upon line and launched an unprovoked attack on an SDF headquarters near the town of KHUSHAM.

TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

In my opinion, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the KURDS as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis.

Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKEY hammered the KURDS in AFRIN as TURKEY’s military offensive in SYRIA against the U.S. backed KURDISH militias has driven civilians underground in what from the KURDISH perspective appears to be a massacre. In my opinion, TURKEY sees the quest by the KURDS, who are spread out in TURKEY, SYRIA, IRAN and IRAQ, to establish an independent homeland as a threat to TURKISH territorial integrity and therefore TURKEY has long warned that TURKEY will not tolerate KURDISH YPG control of the TURKISH border with SYRIA. In my opinion, this weeks mortar strikes launched by KURDISH YPG forces that are landing daily inside TURKEY’s frontier towns have definitely placed TURKISH communities on edge and created internal resentment against TURKEY’s military operation. In my opinion, SYRIA’s seven-year conflict has provided an opportunity for SYRIA’s KURDISH YPG separatists to establish themselves as a major SYRIAN player with U.S. backing enabling the KURDISH YPG to capture land almost 100,000 square kilometers in size. However, TURKEY has watched those gains with rising anger as TURKEY views KURDISH YPG conquests on the SYRIAN side of the border as a national security issue to TURKEY given that TURKEY has been engaged in a decades-old war with the KURDISH PKK on the TURKISH side such that TURKEY is justifying its three-week-old offensive in the KURDISH enclave of AFRIN as a fight against terrorism. However, in my opinion, the KURDISH YPG cross-border shelling that resulted in seven people killed and more than 110 wounded across KILIS and HATAY provinces in TURKEY illustrate the strength of the KURDISH YPG such that TURKEY will not be able to conquer KURDISH held territories without significant resistance.

In regards to two senior U.S. generals coming to the front lines outside the SYRIAN city of MANBIJ flying huge U.S. flags on their vehicles to insure TURKISH forces just on the other side of what has once again become no man’s land realized that U.S. forces were present, it is obvious to me that the U.S. was sending the TURKISH forces the message that if you hit the U.S. forces, the U.S. forces will respond aggressively in order to defend themselves. It is important to note that ISIS militants once controlled this part of SYRIA’s north such that the U.S. and its allies, the SYRIAN KURDISH YPG fighters, collaborated less than one year ago to take over MANBIJ from ISIS. Therefore, in my opinion TURKEY’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatening to attack the city of MANBIJ after calling MANBIJ a bastion of terrorists and demanding that the U.S. forces leave is akin to a spoiled brat wanting the best of both worlds whereby after the dust settled and ISIS was eradicated, TURKEY desires to retake this territory from the hands of the liberators who posed no threat to TURKEY before TURKEY decided to strike the KURDISH YPG on the basis of guilty of terrorism until proven innocent by mere association via race with the KURDISH PKK face. In my opinion, even if the TURKISH forces do not carry out their threats, the fight in AFRIN has indirectly hurt the U.S. led fight against ISIS as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have been forced to shift fighters to the battle in AFRIN, thereby weakening the ISIS campaign far to the east of SYRIA. In my opinion, it is illogical that while the KURDISH YPG forces are still fighting ISIS, the enemy of the world, the TURKISH forces attack the KURDISH YPG in AFRIN while the KURDISH YPG have demonstrated that the KURDS are democratic, as women are free, have equality and democracy under the KURDISH YPG, such that Turkey’s claim that the KURDISH YPG are terrorists is preposterous. In my opinion, this TURKISH spin clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the easiest method to tarnish the reputation of the opposition is to accuse them of being terrorists based on gossip, rumours and fictitious allegations, as on the basis of terrorism one is able to circumvent all laws, violate all civil rights and liberties and essentially operate under the NAZI principal of guilty until proven innocent by mere association to a specific ethnic race, religion and culture with complete and utter disrespect for human dignity on the basis of hate induced coma states of poisoned minds perceiving the opposition as repugnant, vial and nasty rodents that must all be exterminated without exception as all are in substance contaminated with virus of exceptionalism.

IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

Moving on to IRAQ, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after over one year of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power.

Now that the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly transferred from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred to as TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL-QAIM in a lightening fast military offensive. In regards to the IRAQI forces campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants, Western ANBAR is the last region in IRAQ where ISIS held extensive stretches of territories. It is important to note that Iraqi government forces have now driven ISIS out of about 95% of the land ISIS once held in IRAQ and freed more than 4.4 million IRAQIS from ISIS rule. In my opinion, RAWA and the nearby Syrian border town of ALBU KAMAL are of strategic importance to ISIS as the group used routes through these locations to transfer fighters, weapons and goods. Therefore, the towns are also symbolically important because they made up ISIS’s self-declared, cross-border EUPHRATES PROVINCE that was a symbol of ISIS’s intention to eradicate all of the region’s borders between IRAQ and SYRIA. Therefore, since MOSUL was declared free, IRAQI security forces continue to comb western MOSUL areas for hidden ISIS cells despite the victory over ISIS as ISIS is still considered to be a significant security threat even after ISIS’s defeat at its main havens across IRAQI provinces. Therefore, KURDISH and IRAQI forces still need to be vigilant for ISIS reunions to launch attacks through small covert groups of suicide attackers. In my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Hider al-Abadi’s announcement of full liberation of IRAQI lands with an official declaration of an end of the war against ISIS is accurate in theory but not in practice as significant ISIS fighters are still hiding underground like rats. Nonetheless, this week it was announced that the number of U.S. forces in IRAQ would be reduced after the government in IRAQ declared victory over ISIS. In my opinion, the ongoing presence in IRAQ of approximately 5,200 U.S. forces is politically sensitive for IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi who is facing national elections in March whereby the U.S. presence seems to cast a sentiment of infringement on IRAQI sovereignty after the so-called declaration of victory over ISIS by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi.

However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.

In regards to the IRAQI KURDS referendum on independence on September 25, 2017, it is still my opinion that the IRAQI KURDS have the right to pursue their independence pursuant to the majority win by the KURDS with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, albeit the fact that the IRAQI government claims that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. In my opinion, the IRAQI KURDS still need to negotiate with the IRAQI government to respect the IRAQI constitution such that although the KURDISH vote was a clear indication of majority support for separation, the September 25 referendum only serves a symbolic victory thus far, as it cannot be supported legally without further negotiations with the IRAQI government. It is important to note that although KURDISH leaders were willing to use the referendum results as an opening bid in negotiations with IRAQ over expanded autonomy, federal forces responded by retaking KIRKUK and other disputed areas outside the KURDS’ autonomous region with limited bloodshed as most KURDISH forces withdrew without a fight although scattered clashes did break out.

Unfortunately, the U.S. is closely allied with both the IRAQI military and KURDISH forces, which together have driven ISIS out from most of IRAQ. In my opinion, negotiations between IRAQI military officials and their KURDISH counterparts under the banner of the U.S. in FISH KHABUR to try to find a settlement for recent disputes and the threat of further military confrontation particularly over the border crossing points was critical to avert a full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the discussions seem to show that both the IRAQI and KURDISH militaries want to avoid a full fledge civil war as they both seem to be inclined to prefer to share in the oil rich jewels of KURDISTAN as opposed to risking the destruction of the entire region to end up winning the civil war but being left with nothing to show.

However, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. In my opinion, this week’s announcement by IRAQ’s oil ministry that it has signed a contract with RANYA International to build a refinery with the production capacity of 70,000 BPD in KIRKUK province is a favourable development for the region as the establishment of the KIRKUK refinery is a good first step for investment in the refinery sector to cover internal demand in KIRKUK and adjacent neighbours. However, the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) revenues have been slashed by about half since the loss of KIRKUK further worsening KURDISTAN’s financial crisis caused by IRAQI budget cuts since early 2014, low oil prices, and the war against ISIS such that KURDISTAN needs a short-term solution for its current financial crisis. In my opinion, the current stalemate locking the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the IRAQI Federal Government over the 2018 budget needs to be urgently resolved as the KRG demands the return of its 17% budget share while IRAQ is proposing a 12.6% share which the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stated is insufficient for the KRG.

In my opinion, these are challenging times for the KURDISH region such that KURDISH frustrations are understandable but the KURDISH extremist violence is never acceptable so that the KURDS need to conduct their protests peacefully. In my opinion, the KURDISH government has exercised commendable restraint to avoid a full fledge civil war bloodbath with recent concessions made by the KURDISH government to the IRAQI government that clearly demonstrates that the KURDS desire to reach a peaceful negotiated settlement to this conflict. Therefore, I am now convinced more than ever that constructive dialogue can begin between the KURDISH and IRAQI governments that will result in a peaceful long-term sustainable solution.

SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

Moving on to SYRIA, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, it finally does appear that ISIS has been defeated in DEIR AL-ZOR, AL-MAYADEEN and AL-BUKAMAL albeit violent clashes that sporadically continue to erupt around the town as ISIS finds itself trapped like rats underground only to be swept to the surface as the SAA goes through their respective sweeping operations across the outskirts of town. However, with the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declaring that they have completely wiped out ISIS in SYRIA, I expect that the remaining ISIS militants will be hiding in small towns and villages along the border with IRAQ in the SYRIAN dessert such that the remaining portion of no mans land along the Middle Euphrates River Valley will most likely represent ISIS’s last stand. In my opinion, ISIS still controls thousands of square kilometres of desert in the DEIR AL-ZOR, HOMS, IDLIB and DARAA regions such that although ISIS has been forced out of major SYRIAN cities, ISIS is still able to stage attacks on SAA and other rebel forces from these desert areas such that victory may have been achieved albeit ISIS still existing as a thorn in everybodies sides.

However, this week, I was surprised to see TURKISH artillery continuing to fire into SYRIA’s AFRIN region out of pure infuriation over the announcement of U.S. plans to train a 30,000 border force in the area of northern SYRIA where KURDISH YPG dominated forces drove out ISIS fighters last year while TURKEY now promises to strangle the KURDISH terrorist force before it is ever able to come into existence. In my opinion, when war reached AFRIN, it arrived with vengeance as TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan now promised to take TURKEY’s SYRIA operations to IDLIB after completing TURKEY’s current mission in AFRIN where TURKEY is still targeting all KURDISH militants. In my opinion, it is not the first time the TURKISH leader stated that the campaign against KURDISH militia in SYRIA could actually spread beyond AFRIN such TURKEY is now focusing on its recent successes in AFRIN by announcing that around 900 Syrian Kurdish fighters have been neutralized as a spring board for an eventual attack on IDLIB. In regards to TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin agreement to hold a second three-way summit on SYRIA with RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN, I believe that only these three parties can successfully end the bloodshed in SYRIA.

In regards to the Syrian city of RAQQA, capturing RAQQA represents a major achievement in the battle against ISIS and helps to bring an end to ISIS’s reign of terror trying to create a so-called Caliphate. In my opinion, ISIS has used RAQQA for over three years to stage deadly attacks on the Middle East and further overseas such that capturing RAQQA from ISIS significantly reduces ISIS’s terrorist capabilities in the future. Unfortunately, the by-product of this liberation of RAQQA from ISIS appears to be the complete destruction of RAQQA that in my opinion can be attributed to the ALLIANCES’s relentless aerial bombardment of RAQQA to compensate for the weaknesses of its SDF forces on the ground. This was evident during victory celebrations by KURDISH forces that felt muted, as there were literally no civilians left in RAQQA such that it was the celebration of the liberation of a ghost town. In my opinion, ISIS is to blame for the complete destruction of RAQQA as with ISIS’s sole remaining technique of hiding behind civilians for cover, there was no other way to liberate RAQQA than via complete destruction of the city, the death and maiming of hundreds of civilians and the displacement of tens of thousands.

In my opinion, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires. In my opinion, now in its seventh year, the war in SYRIA has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society.

However, as ISIS literally disappears from the face of the map in SYRIA, the question has become whether a race to conquer the oil rich regions could result in a showdown between the international coalitions consisting of the U.S. and SDF forces on the one side and the RUSSIAN and SAA forces on the other. In my opinion, a direct military confrontation is unlikely to take place but the SYRIAN regime is in great need of the region’s oil to boost its struggling economy after the U.S. seized oil fields in RAQQA, the AL-OMAR oil field and a natural gas field in DEIR EZ-ZOR. Therefore, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS. Thus, in my opinion, only RUSSIA has the possibility to negotiate a deal between ALL parties because RUSSIA has worked with most major players in SYRIA to create several de-escalation zones where fighting has stopped and the opposition movements have been allowed to remain in control.

Nonetheless, this week, it was sad to see the U.S. carrying out a brutal massacre with a bombing attack in DEIR AL-ZOR province overnight with air and artillery strikes killing an estimated 100 SYRIAN government fighters near the EUPHRATES river although the U.S. claims that it was exercising its right to self-defence by responding to an attack on its ALLIANCE forces on the ground. In my opinion, the SYRIAN government was likely looking to take over this territory from the SDF forces because of the rich oil fields in KHUSHAM that had been a major source of revenue for ISIS from 2014 to 2017. Furthermore, both RUSSIA and the U.S. have regularly accused each other of operating in this area in order to seize control of local oil operations. Ironically, both the U.S. and RUSSIAN forces in SYRIA have a communication line open 24 hours a day to insure that they do not attack each other so it would appear that RUSSIA was aware of the impending U.S. strike. In my opinion, the U.S. must have been satisfied that adequate warnings were given to the RUSSIANS before the U.S. hit the SYRIAN government forces with artillery and air strikes in the spirit of deconfliction as opposed to coordination. That is, the relationship between the U.S. and RUSSIA appears to be centered on a clone war method of operations whereby each side avoids direct confrontations with each other under the U.S. and RUSSIAN flags while they have their respective SDF and SAA forces doing all the dirty work on the ground on their respective behalves. Therefore, this situation perfectly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby each major third party foreign backing side chooses to fight from the sidelines behind their respective domestic clone force on the ground while the real brains behind the operations are safe in the clouds.

Summary

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 285” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders whereby the TURKISH spin clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the easiest method to tarnish the reputation of the opposition is to accuse them of being terrorists based on gossip, rumours and fictitious allegations, as on the basis of terrorism one is able to circumvent all laws, violate all civil rights and liberties and essentially operate under the NAZI principal of guilty until proven innocent by mere association to a specific ethnic race, religion and culture with complete and utter disrespect for human dignity on the basis of hate induced coma states of poisoned minds perceiving the opposition as repugnant, vial and nasty rodents that must all be exterminated without exception as all are in substance contaminated with virus of exceptionalism.

Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:

February 11, 2018