World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 283

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 283” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders whereby divergent personal, financial and political interests tend to characterize the same group of fighters as either freedom fighters or terrorists depending upon the point-of-view such that everybody continuously and persistently jockeys primarily for his or her respective interests first as every side twists, turns and manipulates underlying conversations to put a country specific twist beneficial to domestic electorate to in essence tell them what they want to hear such that there seems to be two different stories to one same conversation depending on geographic location sphere.

TURKEY News

During the week ending on Sunday, January 28, 2018, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP focused their attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants.

Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures although TURKEY’s crushing of the free press, destruction of the freedom of speech and restrictions to the right to peaceful demonstrations seems to be punishing the TURKISH economy as high inflation in TURKEY and a surge in foreign borrowing by TURKISH banks could plunge TURKEY into an economic crisis as soon as 2018. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKEY urged the U.S. to halt its support for KURDISH YPG fighters or risk confronting TURKISH forces on the ground in SYRIA representing TURKEY’s strongest comments yet about a potential clash with its NATO ally. These threats from the TURKISH government underscore the growing tensions with the U.S. only one week after TURKEY launched its air and ground operation, “Olive Branch”, in Syria’s northwestern AFRIN region against the KURDISH YPG. However, the U.S. said that it has carefully tracked weapons provided to the KURDISH YPG and that the U.S. would continue discussions with TURKEY as the U.S. carefully tracks those weapons that are provided to the KURDISH YPG to insure they do not fall into the wrong hands. It is important to note that the U.S. has around 2,000 troops in SYRIA as part of an international U.S. led coalition against ISIS such that the U.S. has angered TURKEY by providing arms, training and air support to SYRIAN KURDISH YPG forces that TURKEY views as terrorists. Ironically, the KURDISH led autonomous government that runs AFRIN called on the SYRIAN government under President Bashar al-Assad to defend SYRIA’s border with TURKEY in AFRIN despite the SYRIAN government stance against KURDISH autonomy.

Meanwhile, the U.S. and TURKEY have released opposing accounts of a telephone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan highlighting deepening tensions between the two countries during the TURKISH military campaign inside SYRIA last week. According to the U.S., President Donald Trump relayed concerns over the escalating violence in the KURDISH region of AFRIN and urged TURKEY to de-escalate, limit its military actions and avoid civilian casualties. In addition, President Donald Trump called on TURKEY to avoid actions that risk conflict with U.S. forces that have provided arms and air force cover for the KURDISH YPG against ISIS that TURKEY is now fighting in Syria. However, TURKEY claims that the U.S. did not accurately reflect the content of the call as President Donald Trump did not raise concerns about escalating violence in AFRIN but rather the two Presidents simply exchanged views on the operation. Furthermore, TURKEY claims that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused the telephone call on U.S. policies such as support for the KURDISH YPG and the harbouring of Fethullah Gulen, the exiled cleric accused of masterminding the 2016 failed “Coup D’État” that has caused outrage among the TURKISH people. Regardless of the difference of opinions, around 300 KURDISH YPG militants have been neutralized, killed, injured or taken captive so far in the AFRIN offensive as per TURKEY while Turkey suggested that the offensive in AFRIN could be expanded to other areas as necessary as the TURKISH government will not allow the creation of any entity along TURKEY’s borders that TURKEY considers to be terrorists.

IRAQ News

Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and ALLIED forces have pushed ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces first liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety subsequent to ALLIANCE forces seizing complete control of western MOSUL from ISIS. It is important to note that IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS to the point of ISIS relinquishing control of MOSUL as the world watched the scenes of jubilation as IRAQI forces liberated the OLD MOSUL City from ISIS. However, with 40,000 plus dead in the battle to take back OLD MOSUL City from ISIS, the scale of civilian casualties reveals a massacre with many bodies still buried under the rubble and the level of human suffering immense. However, many ISIS militias have taken to the hills and began to wage a classic rural guerrilla war, while some ISIS sleeper cells have also been activated at the border of Baghdad, the IRAQI capital. Thus, ISIS has now returned to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group as the Islamic State of IRAQ and SYRIA can no longer call itself a state as ISIS has lost all capacity to act as a state but rather ISIS now stands exposed as a GANGSTER sham.

On the heels of the IRAQI military victory in MOSUL, IRAQI forces broke through ISIS’s defences inside the northern city of TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL-QAIM as IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared victory over ISIS. In addition, IRAQI pro-government forces completed their long awaited operation to completely destroy ISIS’s caliphate in IRAQ with their campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants. In particular, IRAQI forces recaptured the last bastion of ISIS in IRAQ as soldiers, police, Sunni tribesmen and mostly Shia paramilitary fighters took part in the assault on RAWA in the Euphrates river valley close to the border with SYRIA. Meanwhile this week, IRAQ called on foreign investors to help IRAQ rebuild after defeating ISIS and making progress in reuniting the country saying it would need up to $100 billion to fix crumbling infrastructure and war-torn cities. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi stated that assistance was needed with dozens of projects as IRAQ prepares for a major donors conference in KUWAIT next month to be held together with the World Bank as $ 100 billion is a huge amount of money that IRAQ cannot finance on its own.

Meanwhile, the KURDS still consider the September 25 referendum victory as the culmination of decades of struggle for a KURDISH state of their own although the IRAQI government has clearly stated that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. However, after the votes were tallied and the referendum passed with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, Iraq’s top SHIITE cleric out right rejected the outcome of KURDISTAN’s independence vote despite the overwhelming 92% voting in favour of separating from IRAQ. Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani stated that KURDS must return to the constitutional path arguing that it is in the best interests of all IRAQIS including the KURDS to go back to the constitutional path to solve the issues between the central IRAQI government and the KURDISH region’s government. IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi subsequently released a statement expressing his agreement with the position of Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in addition to stating that the IRAQI government considers KURDISTAN’s referendum as unconstitutional such that the IRAQI government has asked the KURDISH government to cancel its outcome in order to satisfy a precondition for talks on outstanding issues between the two governments. Meanwhile, IRAQI forces along with IRANIAN trained paramilitaries deployed heavy weaponry build up in KIRKUK, the jewel of the proposed future KURDISTAN state. Subsequently, IRAQI forces took control of all major areas of KIRKUK province from KURDISH YPG fighters following fierce fighting. In particular, IRAQI forces took ALTON KUPRI, the oil-rich province of KURDISTAN as rocket; artillery and heavy machine-gun fire erupted in the region.

Ironically, IRAQI military officials and their KURDISH counterparts went into a round of talks under the banner of the U.S. in FISH KHABUR to try to find a settlement for recent disputes and the threat of further military confrontation particularly over the border crossing points. It seems that both sides have agreed on some points and are close to reaching a final agreement although no agreement has yet been signed or made public. Apparently, the IRAQI military side were adamant that the FISH KHABOUR border crossing should be handed over to IRAQI military but agreed for KURDISH border guards presence as well as a U.S. force to run the border crossing in tandem. In regards to Kurdish areas outside the Kurdistan Region still held by the KURDS including SHEIKHAN, MAHMODIYA, SAHELA, ALQOSH, GWER and KHAZIR, it seems that these areas will be run jointly between the KURDISH and IRAQI armies. Also of critical importance, the two sides are also working to negotiate a truce after deadly clashes erupted in some of the disputed territories near the SYRIAN border and south of ERBIL.

As a friendly reminder, IRAQI Kurdish authorities stated that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession. However, the KURDS also stated that this decision must become a basis for starting an inclusive national dialogue between KURDISTAN and IRAQ to resolve all disputes through implementation of all constitutional articles and in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution because all elements of the IRAQI Constitution must be respected in order to secure the unity of IRAQ. Meanwhile, this week, talks between KURDISTAN and IRAQ continued as KURDISH Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani stated that after his second meeting with his IRAQI counterpart, he is hopeful that final agreements may be reached on the issues of paying KURDISH civil salaries and lifting the international flight ban on the KURDISTAN Region’s airports before Iraq’s scheduled May 12, 2018 elections while the long-disputed matter of oil will take more time to resolve.

Nonetheless, the salient point of disagreement stems from the IRAQI Federal Government deeming the referendum vote as unconstitutional while the KURDISH leadership reaffirms the referendums legitimacy on the basis that it was supported by the majority of the people living in the KURDISTAN Region and was justified on the basis that IRAQI officials have regularly violated over 55 articles of the IRAQI Constitution. IRAQI President Fuad Masoum held talks with two of his deputies, Nouri Al Maliki and Ayad Allawi to discuss the political and security situation in IRAQ whereby they debated IRAQ’s upcoming elections, the federal budget law and the situation in the oil-rich city of KIRKUK. The three men called for an immediate dialogue between the IRAQI and KURDISH governments under the supervision of the IRAQI presidency and the support of the UNITED NATIONS to restore relations between the two sides on the basis of the IRAQI constitution.

SYRIA News

Moving on to SYRIA, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH have made remarkable progress in the DEIR AL-ZOR region over the last several months liberating most of the province that was previously occupied by ISIS. Most recently, SAA units have made their way across several kilometers of territory south of the provincial capital of DEIR AL-ZOR striking ISIS in AL-MAYADEEN, ISIS’s new de facto capital in SYRIA. Therefore, the Russian Defence Ministry now estimates that the ISIS terrorist group controls less than five per cent of SYRIA after losing large swathes of territory to the SDF opposition fighters; the U.S. led coalition, the SAA and Russian allied forces. However, ISIS still controls several towns along the eastern and western banks of the EUPHRATES River. Among the occupied areas still under ISIS control are a group of towns that are located along the EUPHRATES River Valley including AL-ASHARAH, ABU HAMMAM, HAJEEN, AL-JALA and SOUSAH. However, the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declared that they have completely wiped out ISIS in Syria. Meanwhile, this week, TURKISH artillery continued to fire into SYRIA’s AFRIN region in what TURKEY states is the start of a military campaign against the KURDISH controlled region. The cross-border bombardment by TURKEY using air power, artillery and ground troops has alarmed the U.S. that has supported the KURDISH YPG in fighting against ISIS in northern Syria. As a friendly reminder, TURKEY which has battled a decades-old insurgency in its mainly KURDISH southeast, considers the SYRIAN KURDISH YPG which controls AFRIN to be a terrorist offshoot whose growing power on TURKEY’s southern border threatens TURKISH security. TURKEY was angered by the U.S. decision to ally itself with the KURDISH YPG against ISIS such that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly said TURKEY would act accordingly to crush the terror corridor of the Kurdish YPG territory stretching along much of the 900 km TURKISH and SYRIAN border. Meanwhile, the KURDISH YPG has said that the KURDS would like to have good neighbourly relations with TURKEY such that TURKEY is the obvious aggressor in this new civil war front opening in the nearly seven-year-old SYRIAN war.

On a positive note, after U.S. backed fighters had surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA, they finally managed to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, have cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. Fighters of the U.S. backed, KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) punched their way through ISIS lines in RAQQA city as KURDISH forces literally shot their way through the streets of RAQQA, concentrating fire on ISIS positions hidden in the urban ruin of RAQQA city while ISIS fought back hard. Meanwhile, witnesses of the aftermath of the battle for RAQQA duly noted that the victory celebrations by KURDISH forces felt muted as there were literally no civilians left in RAQQA such that it was the celebration of the liberation of a ghost town. However, Syrians hoping to return home to RAQQA now that RAQQA has been liberated from ISIS are being told to wait indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby some have already taken their toll in terms of human casualties.

Nonetheless, the current SYRIAN government under the control of President Bashar al-Assad stated that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA, which was liberated from ISIS by the U.S. backed and KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In particular, the existing SYRIAN regime stated that both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime. Therefore, amongst the issues to be resolved about SYRIA, the fate of President Bashar al-Assad is of primary importance. Meanwhile, this week, a new round of SYRIA talks commenced in VIENNA, AUSTRIA in what officials said may be the last hope for a resolution to the seven year long SYRIAN conflict. Delegations representing both the SYRIAN government and the FSA opposition are expected to attend the negotiations in VIENNA at the request of the UN Special Envoy for SYRIA, Staffan de Mistura who defined this round of negotiations as a very critical moment for the languishing SYRIAN peace process. Contemporaneously, France’s foreign minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian stated that the UN led process is the only and last resort for the international community to find a way out of the SYRIAN crisis as there is no prospect of a political solution today except for these last hope meeting in Vienna.

TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders.

Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKEY urged the U.S. to halt its support for KURDISH YPG fighters or risk confronting TURKISH forces on the ground in SYRIA representing TURKEY’s strongest comments yet about a potential clash with its NATO ally. In my opinion, TURKEY’s targeting of the KURDISH YPG, which TURKEY views as a security threat, has opened a new front in SYRIA’s complex proxy civil war as the SYRIAN KURDISH YPG is a main part of the U.S. backed ALLIANCE that recently defeated ISIS militants in RAQQA. Therefore, any push by TURKISH forces towards MANBIJ that is a part of KURDISH held territory approximately 100 km east of AFRIN could threaten U.S. efforts in northeast SYRIA and bring TURKISH forces into direct confrontation with U.S. troops deployed in the region. In my opinion, it would be in the U.S. best interests to review U.S. soldiers giving support to the KURDISH YPG on the ground in such a way that the U.S. avoids a direct confrontation with TURKEY. In regards to the KURDISH led autonomous government that runs AFRIN calling on the SYRIAN government under President Bashar al-Assad to defend SYRIA’s border, it is clear to me that the KURDISH YPG need the SYRIAN air force support. In my opinion, the SYRIAN government has said it is ready to target TURKISH jets in its airspace although it has not yet intervened because the SYRIAN government believes that the Kurdish YPG will eventually seek independence in the long-run while the SYRIAN government does not recognise the autonomous regions set-up by the KURDISH YPG in northern Syria.

In my opinion, this tension between TURKEY and the U.S. concerning the KURDISH YPG perfectly illustrates that divergent personal, financial and political interests that tend to characterize the same group of fighters as either freedom fighters or terrorists depending upon the point-of-view such that this is the new geopolitical complexity that has flooded the entire region whereby everybody continuously and persistently jockeys primarily for his or her respective interests first while ISIS is placed secondary along with all other strategic NATO alliances. That is, when the dominant TURKISH personal, financial and political interests use aggressive military techniques, they justify their actions on the basis of defining themselves as freedom fighters while when the KURDISH YPG utilize similar tactics, they are silenced due to their minority status and definition as terrorists. Thus, I was not surprised to see differing accounts of the telephone conversation between U.S. President Donald Trump and TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that offers a glimpse into how deep the mistrust has become between the two largest military powers in NATO over the issue of American support for the Syrian KURDISH YPG fighters. Therefore, I was not surprised to see tensions boiling over after the U.S. announced earlier this month that the U.S. would build a 30,000 strong border force, including the KURDISH YPG, that would patrol SYRIA’s frontiers while TURKEY retaliated that such a force constitutes an intolerable national security threat accusing the U.S. of building a terror army across the border. In my opinion, these differences between TURKEY and the U.S. concerning interpretations of telephone calls between respective Presidents clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby every side twists, turns and manipulates underlying conversations to put a country specific twist beneficial to domestic electorate to in essence tell them what they want to hear such that there seems to be two different stories to one same conversation depending on geographic location sphere.

IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

Moving on to IRAQ, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after over one year of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power.

Now that the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly transferred from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred to as TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL-QAIM in a lightening fast military offensive. In regards to the IRAQI forces campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants, Western ANBAR is the last region in IRAQ where ISIS held extensive stretches of territories. It is important to note that Iraqi government forces have now driven ISIS out of about 95% of the land ISIS once held in IRAQ and freed more than 4.4 million IRAQIS from ISIS rule. In my opinion, RAWA and the nearby Syrian border town of ALBU KAMAL are of strategic importance to ISIS as the group used routes through these locations to transfer fighters, weapons and goods. Therefore, the towns are also symbolically important because they made up ISIS’s self-declared, cross-border EUPHRATES PROVINCE that was a symbol of ISIS’s intention to eradicate all of the region’s borders between IRAQ and SYRIA. Therefore, since MOSUL was declared free, IRAQI security forces continue to comb western MOSUL areas for hidden ISIS cells despite the victory over ISIS as ISIS is still considered to be a significant security threat even after ISIS’s defeat at its main havens across IRAQI provinces. Therefore, KURDISH and IRAQI forces still need to be vigilant for ISIS reunions to launch attacks through small covert groups of suicide attackers. In my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Hider al-Abadi’s announcement of full liberation of IRAQI lands with an official declaration of an end of the war against ISIS is accurate in theory but not in practice as significant ISIS fighters are still hiding underground like rats. Nonetheless, this week’s announcement whereby IRAQ called on foreign investors to help IRAQ rebuild after defeating ISIS saying that it would need up to $100 billion to fix crumbling infrastructure and war-torn cities is not at all surprising as at the end of the day it is foreign investment that will make IRAQ once again turn round and round. However, in my opinion, IRAQ will face a tough balancing act when seeking military and economic support from the U.S., IRAN and SAUDI ARABIA that have all expressed their interest in building relations with IRAQ although it is no secret that there has been an escalation of tensions between the U.S. and SAUDI ARABIA with IRAN. In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive stance on IRAN threatening to pull out of a 2015 nuclear deal agreement between IRAN and world powers has only fuelled the flames of resistance as IRANIAN foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif skipped the DAVOS forum for the first time in many years, pulling out of the program soon after U.S. President Donald Trump announced his plans to attend. Therefore, all sides must keep their personal differences aside from IRAQ when assisting with the reconstruction of the country as it is no secret that there is no love lost between the respective Parties such that it is best to keep relationships between IRAQ and each individual country separate to avoid further escalation in their respective tensions and conflicts.

However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.

In regards to the IRAQI KURDS referendum on independence on September 25, 2017, it is still my opinion that the IRAQI KURDS have the right to pursue their independence pursuant to the majority win by the KURDS with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, albeit the fact that the IRAQI government claims that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. In my opinion, the IRAQI KURDS still need to negotiate with the IRAQI government to respect the IRAQI constitution such that although the KURDISH vote was a clear indication of majority support for separation, the September 25 referendum only serves a symbolic victory thus far, as it cannot be supported legally without further negotiations with the IRAQI government. In summary, when ISIS took over IRAQ in 2014, this fight over KIRKUK and KURDISH independence got largely pushed to the back burner as both IRAQ and KURDISTAN focused on kicking ISIS out of the country. However, now that IRAQI and KURDISH forces have pushed ISIS out of most of IRAQ, these old divisions between IRAQ and KURDISTAN have once again exploded such that the fight over KIRKUK and KURDISH independence could end up once again destabilizing IRAQ all over again. It is important to note that although KURDISH leaders were willing to use the referendum results as an opening bid in negotiations with IRAQ over expanded autonomy, federal forces responded by retaking KIRKUK and other disputed areas outside the KURDS’ autonomous region with limited bloodshed as most KURDISH forces withdrew without a fight although scattered clashes did break out.

In my opinion, the international community needs to condemn IRAQ’s military aggression on the KURDS as excessive, unreasonable and unjustified, particularly in light of the fact that KURDISH blood soaks KIRKUK as it was the KURDS who stood tall against ISIS and refused to allow KIRKUK to fall while the IRAQI military shat full their overalls when ISIS was charging full speed while the KURDS refused to secede. Unfortunately, the U.S. is closely allied with both the IRAQI military and KURDISH forces, which together have driven ISIS out from most of IRAQ. In my opinion, negotiations between IRAQI military officials and their KURDISH counterparts under the banner of the U.S. in FISH KHABUR to try to find a settlement for recent disputes and the threat of further military confrontation particularly over the border crossing points was critical to avert a full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the discussions seem to show that both the IRAQI and KURDISH militaries want to avoid a full fledge civil war as they both seem to be inclined to prefer to share in the oil rich jewels of KURDISTAN as opposed to risking the destruction of the entire region to end up winning the civil war but being left with nothing to show.

However, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. Therefore, in my opinion, the KURDS will no longer accept being treated like second-class citizens in IRAQ such that the KURDS will in essence retake control of their destinies within the IRAQI federal system via a quiet revolution to avert further bloodshed in IRAQ that could risk the complete and utter destruction of the entire KURDISTAN region. In my opinion, this weeks advance in talks between KURDISTAN and IRAQ should lead to final agreements on the issues of paying KURDISH civil salaries and lifting the international flight ban on the KURDISTAN Region’s airports while the long-disputed matter of oil will take a lot more time to resolve as everybody will be looking for what they consider to be their respective fair share of the huge KIRKUK oil field gold mines. However, the matter of oil will top the future meeting agendas, as there cannot be a resolution of the conflict between the KURDISTAN and IRAQI governments before reaching an agreement on a profit sharing arrangement. Nonetheless, I believe that the only viable solution will be to hand over the extracted oil to the federal authority with the oil exported exclusively by the federal government through state-owned SOMO company while giving the KURDISH government access to the books of account for regular verification to insure details of agreements reached can be independently verified to land credence to the federal administration process.

In my opinion, these are challenging times for the KURDISH region such that KURDISH frustrations are understandable but the KURDISH extremist violence is never acceptable so that the KURDS need to conduct their protests peacefully. In my opinion, the KURDISH government has exercised commendable restraint to avoid a full fledge civil war bloodbath with recent concessions made by the KURDISH government to the IRAQI government that clearly demonstrates that the KURDS desire to reach a peaceful negotiated settlement to this conflict. Therefore, I am now convinced more than ever that constructive dialogue can begin between the KURDISH and IRAQI governments that will result in a peaceful long-term sustainable solution.

SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH strategic focus on ISIS is key to overall peace in the region as the only issue that everybody in the region seems to agree upon is that ISIS needs to be contained to an underground organization without any significant control of land particularly along any major borders. Thus, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, it finally does appear that ISIS has been defeated in DEIR AL-ZOR, AL-MAYADEEN and AL-BUKAMAL albeit violent clashes that sporadically continue to erupt around the town as ISIS finds itself trapped like rats underground only to be swept to the surface as the SAA goes through their respective sweeping operations across the outskirts of town. However, with the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declaring that they have completely wiped out ISIS in Syria, I expect that the remaining ISIS militants will be hiding in small towns and villages along the border with IRAQ in the SYRIAN dessert such that the remaining portion of no mans land along the Middle Euphrates River Valley will most likely represent ISIS’s last stand. In my opinion, ISIS still controls thousands of square kilometres of desert in the DEIR AL-ZOR, HOMS, IDLIB and DARAA regions such that although ISIS has been forced out of major SYRIAN cities, ISIS is still able to stage attacks on SAA and other rebel forces from these desert areas such that victory may have been achieved albeit ISIS still existing as a thorn in everybodies sides.

However, this week, I was surprised to see TURKISH artillery continuing to fire into SYRIA’s AFRIN region in what TURKEY states is the start of a military campaign against the KURDISH controlled region. In my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayep Erdogan launched the AFRIN offensive less than a week after the announcement of U.S. plans to train a 30,000 border force in the area of northern SYRIA where KURDISH YPG dominated forces drove out ISIS fighters last year out of pure infuriation while promising to strangle the KURDISH terrorist force before it ever was able to come into existence. In my opinion, if TURKEY and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) allies defeat the KURDISH YPG in AFRIN, they would link up two areas of rebel-held territory in northwest SYRIA consisting of the IDLIB region west of AFRIN and another area to the east which TURKISH backed FSA rebels control after TURKEY’s “Euphrates Shield” military intervention in 2016. Therefore, a TURKISH military victory would be a boost for SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad’s main opponents consisting of the FSA who have been losing ground for the last two years to SYRIAN government forces supported by RUSSIAN air power and IRANIAN backed militias. However, a TURKISH military victory would also place the FSA rebels in the predicament of governing a large KURDISH population.

In regards to U.S. backed fighters surrounding the Syrian city of RAQQA as they finally ousted the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA, capturing RAQQA represents a major achievement in the battle against ISIS and helps to bring an end to ISIS’s reign of terror trying to create a so-called Caliphate. In my opinion, ISIS has used RAQQA for over three years to stage deadly attacks on the Middle East and further overseas such that capturing RAQQA from ISIS significantly reduces ISIS’s terrorist capabilities in the future. Therefore, the strength of the ISIS terrorists is running out as their defeats thus far in RAQQA have undermined their morale and prevented them from fighting back effectively other than hiding behind innocent civilians as human shields. Unfortunately, the by-product of this liberation of RAQQA from ISIS appears to be the complete destruction of RAQQA that in my opinion can be attributed to the ALLIANCES’s relentless aerial bombardment of RAQQA to compensate for the weaknesses of its SDF forces on the ground. This was evident during victory celebrations by KURDISH forces that felt muted, as there were literally no civilians left in RAQQA such that it was the celebration of the liberation of a ghost town. In my opinion, ISIS is to blame for the complete destruction of RAQQA as with ISIS’s sole remaining technique of hiding behind civilians for cover, there was no other way to liberate RAQQA than via complete destruction of the city, the death and maiming of hundreds of civilians and the displacement of tens of thousands.

In my opinion, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires. In my opinion, now in its seventh year, the war in SYRIA has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society.

However, as ISIS literally disappears from the face of the map in SYRIA, the question has become whether a race to conquer the oil rich regions could result in a showdown between the international coalitions consisting of the U.S. and SDF forces on the one side and the RUSSIAN and SAA forces on the other. In my opinion, a direct military confrontation is unlikely to take place but the SYRIAN regime is in great need of the region’s oil to boost its struggling economy after the U.S. seized oil fields in RAQQA, the AL-OMAR oil field and a natural gas field in DEIR EZ-ZOR. Therefore, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS. Thus, in my opinion, only RUSSIA has the possibility to negotiate a deal between ALL parties because RUSSIA has worked with most major players in SYRIA to create several de-escalation zones where fighting has stopped and the opposition movements have been allowed to remain in control. Nonetheless, the realities of the ISIS organization are that ISIS will not disappear completely off the face of the map as they still have quite a bit of amassed wealth such that eventually some sort of ceasefire deal will need to be negotiated with ISIS to contain them to limited restricted areas as opposed to dispersing them across the globe and giving ISIS the opportunity to launch covert terrorist strikes globally.

Nonetheless, this week, a new round of SYRIA talks commenced in VIENNA, AUSTRIA in what officials said may be the last hope for a resolution to the seven year long SYRIAN conflict. In my opinion, the last round of Syrian talks held in Geneva in December failed between the Syrian government and FSA opposition delegates over the future role of President Bashar al-Assad in a transitional SYRIAN government. Therefore, this time in VIENNA, the FSA opposition needs to moderate its tone as concerns President Bashar al-Assad but not the substance of the FSA request that he step-down as part of a transitional government as in my opinion this should not be an issue that tops the agenda as President Bashar al-Assad and his family have been around for what seems to be an eternity such that a couple more years should not be seen as a show stopper in the grand scheme of things. In my opinion, this round of negotiations needs to focus on the details to achieve a real political transition, a new constitution and elections to be held in SYRIA in the near term future contrary to the current belief by the SYRIAN government that there is only a military solution and not a political one, as the situation on the ground shows to date. In my opinion, backed by the RUSSIANS, the SYRIAN government is still on the offensive and its military operations against the FSA rebels have recently gained new momentum in IDLIB and HAMA provinces demonstrating the SYRIAN government’s relentlessness attempts to clear the SYRIAN territory from ISIS and all other opposition forces.

Summary

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 283” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders whereby divergent personal, financial and political interests tend to characterize the same group of fighters as either freedom fighters or terrorists depending upon the point-of-view such that everybody continuously and persistently jockeys primarily for his or her respective interests first as every side twists, turns and manipulates underlying conversations to put a country specific twist beneficial to domestic electorate to in essence tell them what they want to hear such that there seems to be two different stories to one same conversation depending on geographic location sphere.

Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:

January 28, 2018