In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 282” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders whereby the U.S. would like to see the conversion of the KURDISH forces into a border security force while TURKEY would prefer to annihilate the entire KURDISH army perfectly depicting the new geopolitical realities whereby all decisions are centered on personal, financial and political interests whereby for every action there seems to be an equal and opposing reaction as the world seems to be more and more divided in at least two pieces of a giant pie whereby there is a perpetual tug of war with everybody looking to gain the upper hand for their respective side such that one border between SYRIA and TURKEY seems to have implications on SYRIA, TURKEY, KURDISTAN, U.S., IRAN, ISRAEL and PALESTINE.
TURKEY News
During the week ending on Sunday, January 21, 2018, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP focused their attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants.
Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures although TURKEY’s crushing of the free press, destruction of the freedom of speech and restrictions to the right to peaceful demonstrations seems to be punishing the TURKISH economy as high inflation in TURKEY and a surge in foreign borrowing by TURKISH banks could plunge TURKEY into an economic crisis as soon as 2018. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as after threatening the Syrian KURDISH militia YPG (People’s Protections Units) for years, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan now seems to be preparing TURKEY’s military for a large-scale invasion in the KURDISH region of AFRIN in northwest SYRIA. It seems that the TURKISH army is amassing thousands of soldiers along the border in northern SYRIA and that the force will be larger than the coalition of TURKISH soldiers and ISLAMIST rebel groups operating under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) that launched Operation Euphrates Shield in 2016. It appears that the imminent offensive against the SYRIAN KURDS in AFRIN will include the use of tanks and the TURKISH air force because previous attempts to conquer the YPG and the KURDISH dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) from the area along the TURKISH border failed because of a lack of air support. AFRIN forms the most northern part of what the KURDS call ROJAVA, the three regions along the TURKISH border which form the KURDISH autonomous region in SYRIA.
It is important to note that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was furious last week when the U.S. announced that the U.S. would assist the SDF in transforming it’s Kurdish-Arab militias into a force of 30,000 fighters as a border security force. However, U.S. spokesman Eric Pahon elaborated that the reason the U.S. decided to train the new border security force was to insure the safe return of displaced SYRIANS who want to return to their destroyed communities. Furthermore, U.S. spokesman Eric Pahon also said that the new force would not be an army while claiming that NATO was completely transparent with the TURKISH government about the continuing effort to stamp out any ISIS presence in SYRIA and about the alliance with TURKEY. However, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was not convinced and vowed to strangle the new KURDISH force before it is even born while calling the new border guards a terrorist army whereby the U.S., a country TURKEY considers an ally, is insisting on forming a terrorist army on TURKISH borders.
IRAQ News
Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and ALLIED forces have pushed ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces first liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety subsequent to ALLIANCE forces seizing complete control of western MOSUL from ISIS. It is important to note that IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS to the point of ISIS relinquishing control of MOSUL as the world watched the scenes of jubilation as IRAQI forces liberated the OLD MOSUL City from ISIS. However, with 40,000 plus dead in the battle to take back OLD MOSUL City from ISIS, the scale of civilian casualties reveals a massacre with many bodies still buried under the rubble and the level of human suffering immense. However, many ISIS militias have taken to the hills and began to wage a classic rural guerrilla war, while some ISIS sleeper cells have also been activated at the border of Baghdad, the IRAQI capital. Thus, ISIS has now returned to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group as the Islamic State of IRAQ and SYRIA can no longer call itself a state as ISIS has lost all capacity to act as a state but rather ISIS now stands exposed as a GANGSTER sham.
On the heels of the IRAQI military victory in MOSUL, IRAQI forces broke through ISIS’s defences inside the northern city of TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL-QAIM as IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared victory over ISIS. In addition, IRAQI pro-government forces completed their long awaited operation to completely destroy ISIS’s caliphate in IRAQ with their campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants. In particular, IRAQI forces recaptured the last bastion of ISIS in IRAQ as soldiers, police, Sunni tribesmen and mostly Shia paramilitary fighters took part in the assault on RAWA in the Euphrates river valley close to the border with SYRIA. Meanwhile this week, persisting violence in IRAQ continues to hamper efforts to ease suffering although the IRAQI government last month declared victory over ISIS after completing the takeover of most of the territory ISIS seized in 2014. Persistent bombings and shooting attacks by ISIS make it difficult to rebuild the lives of displaced people whereby about 2.6 million people have been displaced after the three-year war with ISIS whereby about half of those displaced are children. UNICEF estimates that as a result of the conflict with ISIS, a lack of investment over the years and poverty at an all time high, there are over 4 million children now in desperate need of assistance across IRAQ. While the fighting has come to an end in several areas, spikes of violence continue in others whereby just this week, three bombings went off in the capital of Baghdad. Meanwhile, the issue of civilians displaced from Sunni Muslim areas previously under control of ISIS has now become a sensitive issue of sectarian political debate as Sunni politicians are lobbying for postponing parliamentary elections due in May to allow the displaced to return to their hometowns to cast their ballots there while Shiite Muslim politicians including Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi insist on the vote taking place as planned on May 12.
Meanwhile, the KURDS still consider the September 25 referendum victory as the culmination of decades of struggle for a KURDISH state of their own although the IRAQI government has clearly stated that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. However, after the votes were tallied and the referendum passed with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, Iraq’s top SHIITE cleric out right rejected the outcome of KURDISTAN’s independence vote despite the overwhelming 92% voting in favour of separating from IRAQ. Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani stated that KURDS must return to the constitutional path arguing that it is in the best interests of all IRAQIS including the KURDS to go back to the constitutional path to solve the issues between the central IRAQI government and the KURDISH region’s government. IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi subsequently released a statement expressing his agreement with the position of Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in addition to stating that the IRAQI government considers KURDISTAN’s referendum as unconstitutional such that the IRAQI government has asked the KURDISH government to cancel its outcome in order to satisfy a precondition for talks on outstanding issues between the two governments. Meanwhile, IRAQI forces along with IRANIAN trained paramilitaries deployed heavy weaponry build up in KIRKUK, the jewel of the proposed future KURDISTAN state. Subsequently, IRAQI forces took control of all major areas of KIRKUK province from KURDISH YPG fighters following fierce fighting. In particular, IRAQI forces took ALTON KUPRI, the oil-rich province of KURDISTAN as rocket; artillery and heavy machine-gun fire erupted in the region.
Ironically, IRAQI military officials and their KURDISH counterparts went into a round of talks under the banner of the U.S. in FISH KHABUR to try to find a settlement for recent disputes and the threat of further military confrontation particularly over the border crossing points. It seems that both sides have agreed on some points and are close to reaching a final agreement although no agreement has yet been signed or made public. Apparently, the IRAQI military side were adamant that the FISH KHABOUR border crossing should be handed over to IRAQI military but agreed for KURDISH border guards presence as well as a U.S. force to run the border crossing in tandem. In regards to Kurdish areas outside the Kurdistan Region still held by the KURDS including SHEIKHAN, MAHMODIYA, SAHELA, ALQOSH, GWER and KHAZIR, it seems that these areas will be run jointly between the KURDISH and IRAQI armies. Also of critical importance, the two sides are also working to negotiate a truce after deadly clashes erupted in some of the disputed territories near the SYRIAN border and south of ERBIL.
As a friendly reminder, IRAQI Kurdish authorities stated that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession. However, the KURDS also stated that this decision must become a basis for starting an inclusive national dialogue between KURDISTAN and IRAQ to resolve all disputes through implementation of all constitutional articles and in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution because all elements of the IRAQI Constitution must be respected in order to secure the unity of IRAQ. Meanwhile, this week, BP has signed an initial agreement with the IRAQI government to ramp up production from the giant KIRKUK oilfield in IRAQI Kurdistan further cementing the IRAQI governments control over the disputed KURDISH region retaken by the IRAQI military in the wake of the failed bid by the KURDISH government to secure its independence.
Nonetheless, the salient point of disagreement stems from the IRAQI Federal Government deeming the referendum vote as unconstitutional while the KURDISH leadership reaffirms the referendums legitimacy on the basis that it was supported by the majority of the people living in the KURDISTAN Region and was justified on the basis that IRAQI officials have regularly violated over 55 articles of the IRAQI Constitution. IRAQI President Fuad Masoum held talks with two of his deputies, Nouri Al Maliki and Ayad Allawi to discuss the political and security situation in IRAQ whereby they debated IRAQ’s upcoming elections, the federal budget law and the situation in the oil-rich city of KIRKUK. The three men called for an immediate dialogue between the IRAQI and KURDISH governments under the supervision of the IRAQI presidency and the support of the UNITED NATIONS to restore relations between the two sides on the basis of the IRAQI constitution.
SYRIA News
Moving on to SYRIA, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH have made remarkable progress in the DEIR AL-ZOR region over the last several months liberating most of the province that was previously occupied by ISIS. Most recently, SAA units have made their way across several kilometers of territory south of the provincial capital of DEIR AL-ZOR striking ISIS in AL-MAYADEEN, ISIS’s new de facto capital in SYRIA. Therefore, the Russian Defence Ministry now estimates that the ISIS terrorist group controls less than five per cent of SYRIA after losing large swathes of territory to the SDF opposition fighters; the U.S. led coalition, the SAA and Russian allied forces. However, ISIS still controls several towns along the eastern and western banks of the EUPHRATES River. Among the occupied areas still under ISIS control are a group of towns that are located along the EUPHRATES River Valley including AL-ASHARAH, ABU HAMMAM, HAJEEN, AL-JALA and SOUSAH. However, the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declared that they have completely wiped out ISIS in Syria. Meanwhile, this week, TURKISH artillery fired into SYRIA’s AFRIN region in what TURKEY states is the start of a military campaign against the KURDISH controlled region. The cross-border bombardment took place after days of threats from TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to crush the SYRIAN KURDISH YPG militia in AFRIN in response to what TURKEY sees as growing KURDISH strength across a wide stretch of north SYRIA. However, the U.S. has called on TURKEY to focus on the fight against ISIS and not take military action in AFRIN as TURKISH artillery fire will undermine regional stability and will not help protect TURKEY’s border security.
On a positive note, after U.S. backed fighters had surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA, they finally managed to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, have cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. Fighters of the U.S. backed, KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) punched their way through ISIS lines in RAQQA city as KURDISH forces literally shot their way through the streets of RAQQA, concentrating fire on ISIS positions hidden in the urban ruin of RAQQA city while ISIS fought back hard. Meanwhile, witnesses of the aftermath of the battle for RAQQA duly noted that the victory celebrations by KURDISH forces felt muted as there were literally no civilians left in RAQQA such that it was the celebration of the liberation of a ghost town. However, Syrians hoping to return home to RAQQA now that RAQQA has been liberated from ISIS are being told to wait indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby some have already taken their toll in terms of human casualties.
Nonetheless, the current SYRIAN government under the control of President Bashar al-Assad stated that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA, which was liberated from ISIS by the U.S. backed and KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In particular, the existing SYRIAN regime stated that both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime. Therefore, amongst the issues to be resolved about SYRIA, the fate of President Bashar al-Assad is of primary importance. Nonetheless, I was not surprised this week to see the Chairman of IRAN’s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Kamal Kharrazi, stress IRAN’s opposition to the U.S. troops presence in SYRIA while praising President Bashar al-Assad on SYRIA’s reconciliatory efforts. On a visit to SYRIA, Kamal Kharrazi stressed that the presence of the U.S. on the territory of SYRIA does not contribute to peace in the SYRIA such that IRAN considers the presence of the U.S. in SYRIA illegitimate. Furthermore, Kamal Kharrazi told SYRIA’s State Minister for National Reconciliation Affairs, Ali Haidar, that the U.S. should let the SYRIANS talk with each other to establish peace and to overcome their differences.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders.
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures after threatening the Syrian KURDISH militia YPG (People’s Protections Units) for years, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan now seems to be preparing TURKEY’s military for a large-scale invasion in the KURDISH region of AFRIN in northwest SYRIA. In my opinion, during 2016, when President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed Operation Euphrates Shield consisting of a combined TURKISH and Free Syrian Army (FSA) military force was set-up with the intention to fight ISIS, in reality, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was preparing for the possibility of a military intervention to prevent the establishment of a neighbouring KURDISH region along the TURKISH border in SYRIA. Therefore, in my opinion, the imminent offensive against the SYRIAN KURDS in AFRIN highlights the potential that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is on the verge of carrying out a new aggressive manoeuvre which aims to advance TURKEY’s neo-Ottoman agenda in the Middle East and beyond.
In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is utilizing last week’s U.S. announcement that the U.S. would assist the SDF in transforming it’s Kurdish-Arab militias into a force of 30,000 fighters as a border security force as justification for invading AFRIN which has been under YPG control since 2012. In my opinion, the U.S. and N.A.T.O. have not shown much interest in stopping President Recep Tayyip Erdogan from taking over AFRIN because for them it is not part of the effort to eradicate the remaining ISIS regions in eastern SYRIA. In my opinion, there is much more at stake than securing the SYRIAN TURKISH border and safeguarding the return of SYRIAN refugees whereby the U.S. would like to create conditions that would enable regime change in SYRIA while keeping U.S. soldiers in TURKEY to confront IRAN which appears to be working behind the scenes to transform SYRIA into another IRANIAN state like LEBANON. Furthermore, in my opinion, U.S. disengagement from SYRIA followed by loss of the SYRIAN border with TURKEY currently controlled by KURDISH YPG forces would also provide IRAN with the opportunity to further strengthen its own position in SYRIA given that IRAN is looking to dominate in the Middle East while ISRAEL shivers at the thought of IRAN controlling the Middle East for fear of the IRANIAN support of the PALESTINIANS. This current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders whereby the U.S. would like to see the conversion of the KURDISH forces into a border security force while TURKEY would prefer to annihilate the entire KURDISH army perfectly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby all decisions are centered on personal, financial and political interests whereby for every action there seems to be an equal and opposing reaction as the world seems to be more and more divided in at least two pieces of a giant pie whereby there is a perpetual tug of war with everybody looking to gain the upper hand for their respective side such that one border between SYRIA and TURKEY seems to have implications on SYRIA, TURKEY, KURDISTAN, U.S., IRAN, ISRAEL and PALESTINE.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Moving on to IRAQ, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after over one year of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power.
Now that the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly transferred from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred to as TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL-QAIM in a lightening fast military offensive. In regards to the IRAQI forces campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants, Western ANBAR is the last region in IRAQ where ISIS held extensive stretches of territories. It is important to note that Iraqi government forces have now driven ISIS out of about 95% of the land ISIS once held in IRAQ and freed more than 4.4 million IRAQIS from ISIS rule. In my opinion, RAWA and the nearby Syrian border town of ALBU KAMAL are of strategic importance to ISIS as the group used routes through these locations to transfer fighters, weapons and goods. Therefore, the towns are also symbolically important because they made up ISIS’s self-declared, cross-border EUPHRATES PROVINCE that was a symbol of ISIS’s intention to eradicate all of the region’s borders between IRAQ and SYRIA. Therefore, since MOSUL was declared free, IRAQI security forces continue to comb western MOSUL areas for hidden ISIS cells despite the victory over ISIS as ISIS is still considered to be a significant security threat even after ISIS’s defeat at its main havens across IRAQI provinces. Therefore, KURDISH and IRAQI forces still need to be vigilant for ISIS reunions to launch attacks through small covert groups of suicide attackers. In my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Hider al-Abadi’s announcement of full liberation of IRAQI lands with an official declaration of an end of the war against ISIS is accurate in theory but not in practice as significant ISIS fighters are still hiding underground like rats. Nonetheless, this week’s announcement that persistent bombings and shooting attacks by ISIS make it difficult to rebuild the lives of displaced people whereby about 2.6 million people have been displaced after the three-year war with ISIS whereby about half of those displaced are children is quite disturbing to say the least. In my opinion, violence is not only killing and maiming children but it is also destroying schools, hospitals, homes and roads while tearing apart the diverse social fabric and culture of tolerance that once held IRAQI communities together. In regards to the sensitive issue of sectarian political debate as Sunni politicians are lobbying for postponing parliamentary elections due in May to allow the displaced to return to their hometowns to cast their ballots there while Shiite Muslim politicians including Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi insist on the vote taking place as planned on May 12, I believe that regardless of what has transpired it is always best to go on with the show. Therefore, in my opinion, the elections in IRAQ should be held on time because delaying them would set a dangerous precedent undermining the constitution and damaging IRAQ’s long-term democratic development while there will always be subsequent elections after the Sunni Muslims return to level the playing field if the Shiite Muslims perform badly.
However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
In regards to the IRAQI KURDS referendum on independence on September 25, 2017, it is still my opinion that the IRAQI KURDS have the right to pursue their independence pursuant to the majority win by the KURDS with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, albeit the fact that the IRAQI government claims that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. In my opinion, the IRAQI KURDS still need to negotiate with the IRAQI government to respect the IRAQI constitution such that although the KURDISH vote was a clear indication of majority support for separation, the September 25 referendum only serves a symbolic victory thus far, as it cannot be supported legally without further negotiations with the IRAQI government. In summary, when ISIS took over IRAQ in 2014, this fight over KIRKUK and KURDISH independence got largely pushed to the back burner as both IRAQ and KURDISTAN focused on kicking ISIS out of the country. However, now that IRAQI and KURDISH forces have pushed ISIS out of most of IRAQ, these old divisions between IRAQ and KURDISTAN have once again exploded such that the fight over KIRKUK and KURDISH independence could end up once again destabilizing IRAQ all over again. It is important to note that although KURDISH leaders were willing to use the referendum results as an opening bid in negotiations with IRAQ over expanded autonomy, federal forces responded by retaking KIRKUK and other disputed areas outside the KURDS’ autonomous region with limited bloodshed as most KURDISH forces withdrew without a fight although scattered clashes did break out.
In my opinion, the international community needs to condemn IRAQ’s military aggression on the KURDS as excessive, unreasonable and unjustified, particularly in light of the fact that KURDISH blood soaks KIRKUK as it was the KURDS who stood tall against ISIS and refused to allow KIRKUK to fall while the IRAQI military shat full their overalls when ISIS was charging full speed while the KURDS refused to secede. Unfortunately, the U.S. is closely allied with both the IRAQI military and KURDISH forces, which together have driven ISIS out from most of IRAQ. In my opinion, negotiations between IRAQI military officials and their KURDISH counterparts under the banner of the U.S. in FISH KHABUR to try to find a settlement for recent disputes and the threat of further military confrontation particularly over the border crossing points was critical to avert a full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the discussions seem to show that both the IRAQI and KURDISH militaries want to avoid a full fledge civil war as they both seem to be inclined to prefer to share in the oil rich jewels of KURDISTAN as opposed to risking the destruction of the entire region to end up winning the civil war but being left with nothing to show.
However, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. Therefore, in my opinion, the KURDS will no longer accept being treated like second-class citizens in IRAQ such that the KURDS will in essence retake control of their destinies within the IRAQI federal system via a quiet revolution to avert further bloodshed in IRAQ that could risk the complete and utter destruction of the entire KURDISTAN region. In my opinion, this weeks signing of an initial agreement by BP with the IRAQI government to ramp up production from the giant KIRKUK oilfield in IRAQI Kurdistan further cements the IRAQI governments control over the disputed KURDISH region. In my opinion, KIRKUK, the biggest oilfield in the world when it was first discovered by BP around 1920 has been the most contentious issue between the IRAQI and KURDISH governments for decades such with the signing of this agreement between BP and the IRAQI government, the KURDISH plans to carve out an independent state inside IRAQ appear to be history as economic realities seem to dictate that KURDISTAN will share in this jewel with the IRAQI government.
In my opinion, these are challenging times for the KURDISH region such that KURDISH frustrations are understandable but the KURDISH extremist violence is never acceptable so that the KURDS need to conduct their protests peacefully. In my opinion, the KURDISH government has exercised commendable restraint to avoid a full fledge civil war bloodbath with recent concessions made by the KURDISH government to the IRAQI government that clearly demonstrates that the KURDS desire to reach a peaceful negotiated settlement to this conflict. Therefore, I am now convinced more than ever that constructive dialogue can begin between the KURDISH and IRAQI governments that will result in a peaceful long-term sustainable solution.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH strategic focus on ISIS is key to overall peace in the region as the only issue that everybody in the region seems to agree upon is that ISIS needs to be contained to an underground organization without any significant control of land particularly along any major borders. Thus, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, it finally does appear that ISIS has been defeated in DEIR AL-ZOR, AL-MAYADEEN and AL-BUKAMAL albeit violent clashes that sporadically continue to erupt around the town as ISIS finds itself trapped like rats underground only to be swept to the surface as the SAA goes through their respective sweeping operations across the outskirts of town. However, with the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declaring that they have completely wiped out ISIS in Syria, I expect that the remaining ISIS militants will be hiding in small towns and villages along the border with IRAQ in the SYRIAN dessert such that the remaining portion of no mans land along the Middle Euphrates River Valley will most likely represent ISIS’s last stand. In my opinion, ISIS still controls thousands of square kilometres of desert in the DEIR AL-ZOR, HOMS, IDLIB and DARAA regions such that although ISIS has been forced out of major SYRIAN cities, ISIS is still able to stage attacks on SAA and other rebel forces from these desert areas such that victory may have been achieved albeit ISIS still existing as a thorn in everybodies sides.
However, this week, I was surprised to see TURKISH artillery fired into SYRIA’s AFRIN region in what TURKEY states is the start of a military campaign against the KURDISH controlled region. In my opinion, direct military action against territory held by KURDISH militia would open a new front in SYRIA’s civil war and would see TURKEY confronting KURDS allied to the U.S. at a time when TURKEY’s relations with the U.S. are reaching the breaking point. In my opinion, a TURKISH military operation does not serve the cause of regional stability, SYRIAN stability or TURKISH concerns about the security of their border but rather these kinds of threats or activities actually destabilize the border. In my opinion, TURKEY has been angered by U.S. military support for the KURDISH YPG dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) that spearheaded the fight against ISIS in Iraq and Syria and mostly by an announcement that the U.S. would stay in Syria to train about 30,000 YPG soldiers in eastern SYRIA under SDF control as border patrol officers. In my opinion, TURKEY has effectively snapped after the U.S. announcement as TURKEY has been claiming from the outset that the YPG is a terrorist group and a branch of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party that has waged an insurgency in southeast TURKEY for decades such that U.S. backing of the KURDISH YPG with emphasis on countering ISIS was acceptable while the change in U.S. strategy appears to have created a non-reconciling difference of opinion with TURKEY.
In regards to U.S. backed fighters surrounding the Syrian city of RAQQA as they finally ousted the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA, capturing RAQQA represents a major achievement in the battle against ISIS and helps to bring an end to ISIS’s reign of terror trying to create a so-called Caliphate. In my opinion, ISIS has used RAQQA for over three years to stage deadly attacks on the Middle East and further overseas such that capturing RAQQA from ISIS significantly reduces ISIS’s terrorist capabilities in the future. Therefore, the strength of the ISIS terrorists is running out as their defeats thus far in RAQQA have undermined their morale and prevented them from fighting back effectively other than hiding behind innocent civilians as human shields. Unfortunately, the by-product of this liberation of RAQQA from ISIS appears to be the complete destruction of RAQQA that in my opinion can be attributed to the ALLIANCES’s relentless aerial bombardment of RAQQA to compensate for the weaknesses of its SDF forces on the ground. This was evident during victory celebrations by KURDISH forces that felt muted, as there were literally no civilians left in RAQQA such that it was the celebration of the liberation of a ghost town. In my opinion, ISIS is to blame for the complete destruction of RAQQA as with ISIS’s sole remaining technique of hiding behind civilians for cover, there was no other way to liberate RAQQA than via complete destruction of the city, the death and maiming of hundreds of civilians and the displacement of tens of thousands.
In my opinion, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires. In my opinion, now in its seventh year, the war in SYRIA has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society.
However, as ISIS literally disappears from the face of the map in SYRIA, the question has become whether a race to conquer the oil rich regions could result in a showdown between the international coalitions consisting of the U.S. and SDF forces on the one side and the RUSSIAN and SAA forces on the other. In my opinion, a direct military confrontation is unlikely to take place but the SYRIAN regime is in great need of the region’s oil to boost its struggling economy after the U.S. seized oil fields in RAQQA, the AL-OMAR oil field and a natural gas field in DEIR EZ-ZOR. Therefore, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS. Thus, in my opinion, only RUSSIA has the possibility to negotiate a deal between ALL parties because RUSSIA has worked with most major players in SYRIA to create several de-escalation zones where fighting has stopped and the opposition movements have been allowed to remain in control. Nonetheless, the realities of the ISIS organization are that ISIS will not disappear completely off the face of the map as they still have quite a bit of amassed wealth such that eventually some sort of ceasefire deal will need to be negotiated with ISIS to contain them to limited restricted areas as opposed to dispersing them across the globe and giving ISIS the opportunity to launch covert terrorist strikes globally.
Nonetheless, I was not surprised this week to see the Chairman of IRAN’s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Kamal Kharrazi, stress IRAN’s opposition to the U.S. troops presence in SYRIA while praising President Bashar al-Assad on SYRIA’s reconciliatory efforts. In my opinion, it was not surprising to see the SYRIAN minister praise the long-standing relations between IRAN and SYRIA while noting that the two countries are fighting on the same front and will win together as it is no secret that IRAN backs the current SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad exclusively and irrevocably. Furthermore, IRAN is the tie that binds SYRIA to HEZBOLLAH such that IRAN was infuriated this week as HEZBOLLAH leader, Hassan Nasrallah, claimed that ISRAEL was behind a recent car bomb attack on one of the leaders of the PALESTINIAN movement known as HAMAS in the LEBANESE city of SIDON. In my opinion, the incident in LEBANON whereby Mohamed Hamdan was injured after an explosive device planted in his BMW went off in SIDON most probably originated from ISRAEL although I do not believe that there will be adequate evidence to pin ISREAL for this crime that obviously violates the sovereignty of LEBANON. In my opinion, this LINK between IRAN, SYRIA and HEZBOLLAH is strong as steel such that I believe that they will never ever accept either the U.S. or ISRAEL as a dominant player in the Middle East such that all of this week’s events just further highlight the divide along with the notion that there continues to be opposing commotions that will continue into perpetuity as the two sides cannot stand each others motions.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 282” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders whereby the U.S. would like to see the conversion of the KURDISH forces into a border security force while TURKEY would prefer to annihilate the entire KURDISH army perfectly depicting the new geopolitical realities whereby all decisions are centered on personal, financial and political interests whereby for every action there seems to be an equal and opposing reaction as the world seems to be more and more divided in at least two pieces of a giant pie whereby there is a perpetual tug of war with everybody looking to gain the upper hand for their respective side such that one border between SYRIA and TURKEY seems to have implications on SYRIA, TURKEY, KURDISTAN, U.S., IRAN, ISRAEL and PALESTINE.
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