In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 281” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding legalistic stupidities as seen this week whereby TURKEY and CROATIA agreed to further strengthen their bilateral cooperation to increase the bilateral trade volume to $ 1 billion as CROATIA is no different than any other country in this world whereby it is making decisions that best serve its personal, financial and political interests which is namely centered upon increasing its economic trading volumes to aid a struggling CROATIAN economy while avoiding discussions about Herzegovina consisting of hard-core right wing CROATIAN separatists that the Ottoman Empire was never able to break while focusing on the remaining BOSNIAN population make-up consisting of a Slavic-speaking Muslim community that ultimately emerged and became the largest of the religious groups in BOSNIA with whom CROATIA regularly intervenes to motivate TURKEY to invest capital via CROATIAN streams.
TURKEY News
During the week ending on Sunday, January 14, 2018, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP focused their attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants.
Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures although TURKEY’s crushing of the free press, destruction of the freedom of speech and restrictions to the right to peaceful demonstrations seems to be punishing the TURKISH economy as high inflation in TURKEY and a surge in foreign borrowing by TURKISH banks could plunge TURKEY into an economic crisis as soon as 2018. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures consisting of domestic crackdowns and anti-American rhetoric after a federal jury in NEW YORK convicted a TURKISH banker, Mehmet Hakan Atilla of playing a role in an elaborate gold smuggling scheme that involved bribing high-ranking TURKISH government officials to help IRAN evade AMERICAN sanctions. Furthermore, making the case even more sensitive, testimony at Mehmet Hakan Atilla’s trial alleging that the scheme had the approval of TURKEY’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan infuriorated the President of TURKEY. President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan of course, is furious once again, voicing his anger that the IRAN sanction violation case is just the latest in a chain of C.I.A. orchestrated plots against him, including the 2016 failed “Coup D’État”. Furthermore, President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also infuriated about accusations of corruption against his family by Turkey’s main opposition party claiming that it is part of a greater conspiracy to dethrone him as President of TURKEY.
In regards to Turkey and Croatia agreeing to further strengthen their bilateral cooperation, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated at a joint news conference in TURKEY with Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic that the two nations agreed to further reinforce the cooperation between Turkey and Croatia in the international arena. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that they discussed both bilateral relations in economy, trade, culture and politics, as well as regional and international issues, including Syria and Iraq. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also stated that discussions included covering the fight against terrorism whereby TURKEY will continue to root out the Fethullahist Terrorist Organization (FETO), the group behind the 2016 failed “Coup D’État” that continues to be active in the Balkans. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan thanked Croatia for showing their sensitivity in this regard stating that the fruitful and successful meeting with the Croatian President will accelerate relations. Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic, for her part, said her one-day visit to TURKEY was vital to increase the bilateral trade volume to $ 1 billion such that Croatia does not have problems with TURKEY but can of course further enhance relations with TURKEY.
IRAQ News
Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and ALLIED forces have pushed ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces first liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety subsequent to ALLIANCE forces seizing complete control of western MOSUL from ISIS. It is important to note that IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS to the point of ISIS relinquishing control of MOSUL as the world watched the scenes of jubilation as IRAQI forces liberated the OLD MOSUL City from ISIS. However, with 40,000 plus dead in the battle to take back OLD MOSUL City from ISIS, the scale of civilian casualties reveals a massacre with many bodies still buried under the rubble and the level of human suffering immense. However, many ISIS militias have taken to the hills and began to wage a classic rural guerrilla war, while some ISIS sleeper cells have also been activated at the border of Baghdad, the IRAQI capital. Thus, ISIS has now returned to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group as the Islamic State of IRAQ and SYRIA can no longer call itself a state as ISIS has lost all capacity to act as a state but rather ISIS now stands exposed as a GANGSTER sham.
On the heels of the IRAQI military victory in MOSUL, IRAQI forces broke through ISIS’s defences inside the northern city of TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL-QAIM as IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared victory over ISIS. In addition, IRAQI pro-government forces completed their long awaited operation to completely destroy ISIS’s caliphate in IRAQ with their campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants. In particular, IRAQI forces recaptured the last bastion of ISIS in IRAQ as soldiers, police, Sunni tribesmen and mostly Shia paramilitary fighters took part in the assault on RAWA in the Euphrates river valley close to the border with SYRIA. Meanwhile this week, the U.S. ambassador to IRAQ stated that there would be a new decrease of U.S. troops in IRAQ in the upcoming months. The presence of U.S. forces in IRAQ has been decreased, especially in ANBAR province, in coordination with the IRAQI forces taking over responsibilities that will continue with a gradual reduction of these U.S. forces in the coming months without replacing them with others.
Meanwhile, the KURDS still consider the September 25 referendum victory as the culmination of decades of struggle for a KURDISH state of their own although the IRAQI government has clearly stated that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. However, after the votes were tallied and the referendum passed with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, Iraq’s top SHIITE cleric out right rejected the outcome of KURDISTAN’s independence vote despite the overwhelming 92% voting in favour of separating from IRAQ. Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani stated that KURDS must return to the constitutional path arguing that it is in the best interests of all IRAQIS including the KURDS to go back to the constitutional path to solve the issues between the central IRAQI government and the KURDISH region’s government. IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi subsequently released a statement expressing his agreement with the position of Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in addition to stating that the IRAQI government considers KURDISTAN’s referendum as unconstitutional such that the IRAQI government has asked the KURDISH government to cancel its outcome in order to satisfy a precondition for talks on outstanding issues between the two governments. Meanwhile, IRAQI forces along with IRANIAN trained paramilitaries deployed heavy weaponry build up in KIRKUK, the jewel of the proposed future KURDISTAN state. Subsequently, IRAQI forces took control of all major areas of KIRKUK province from KURDISH YPG fighters following fierce fighting. In particular, IRAQI forces took ALTON KUPRI, the oil-rich province of KURDISTAN as rocket; artillery and heavy machine-gun fire erupted in the region.
Ironically, IRAQI military officials and their KURDISH counterparts went into a round of talks under the banner of the U.S. in FISH KHABUR to try to find a settlement for recent disputes and the threat of further military confrontation particularly over the border crossing points. It seems that both sides have agreed on some points and are close to reaching a final agreement although no agreement has yet been signed or made public. Apparently, the IRAQI military side were adamant that the FISH KHABOUR border crossing should be handed over to IRAQI military but agreed for KURDISH border guards presence as well as a U.S. force to run the border crossing in tandem. In regards to Kurdish areas outside the Kurdistan Region still held by the KURDS including SHEIKHAN, MAHMODIYA, SAHELA, ALQOSH, GWER and KHAZIR, it seems that these areas will be run jointly between the KURDISH and IRAQI armies. Also of critical importance, the two sides are also working to negotiate a truce after deadly clashes erupted in some of the disputed territories near the SYRIAN border and south of ERBIL.
As a friendly reminder, IRAQI Kurdish authorities stated that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession. However, the KURDS also stated that this decision must become a basis for starting an inclusive national dialogue between KURDISTAN and IRAQ to resolve all disputes through implementation of all constitutional articles and in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution because all elements of the IRAQI Constitution must be respected in order to secure the unity of IRAQ. Meanwhile, this week, IRAQI paramilitary troops killed a senior religious leader in ISIS near a KIRKUK village whereby the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) killed the so-called ISIS mufti of KIRKUK and three of his ISIS companions during a military operation near a village at DAQUQ district in southern KIRKUK. The slain ISIS leader was identified as Abdul Qader al-Azzi.
Nonetheless, the salient point of disagreement stems from the IRAQI Federal Government deeming the referendum vote as unconstitutional while the KURDISH leadership reaffirms the referendums legitimacy on the basis that it was supported by the majority of the people living in the KURDISTAN Region and was justified on the basis that IRAQI officials have regularly violated over 55 articles of the IRAQI Constitution. IRAQI President Fuad Masoum held talks with two of his deputies, Nouri Al Maliki and Ayad Allawi to discuss the political and security situation in IRAQ whereby they debated IRAQ’s upcoming elections, the federal budget law and the situation in the oil-rich city of KIRKUK. The three men called for an immediate dialogue between the IRAQI and KURDISH governments under the supervision of the IRAQI presidency and the support of the UNITED NATIONS to restore relations between the two sides on the basis of the IRAQI constitution.
SYRIA News
Moving on to SYRIA, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH have made remarkable progress in the DEIR AL-ZOR region over the last several months liberating most of the province that was previously occupied by ISIS. Most recently, SAA units have made their way across several kilometers of territory south of the provincial capital of DEIR AL-ZOR striking ISIS in AL-MAYADEEN, ISIS’s new de facto capital in SYRIA. Therefore, the Russian Defence Ministry now estimates that the ISIS terrorist group controls less than five per cent of SYRIA after losing large swathes of territory to the SDF opposition fighters; the U.S. led coalition, the SAA and Russian allied forces. However, ISIS still controls several towns along the eastern and western banks of the EUPHRATES River. Among the occupied areas still under ISIS control are a group of towns that are located along the EUPHRATES River Valley including AL-ASHARAH, ABU HAMMAM, HAJEEN, AL-JALA and SOUSAH. However, the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declared that they have completely wiped out ISIS in Syria. Meanwhile, this week, a Syrian Arab Army (SAA) offensive on SYRIA’s largest remaining rebel stronghold consisting of IDLIB has displaced some 100,000 SYRIAN civilians. As a friendly reminder, since the start of November, fighting and air strikes have intensified in the northwestern province of IDLIB and neighbouring parts of HAMA and ALEPPO whereby the situation for those forced from their homes is disturbing. TURKEY, which backs the rebels, has called on the government’s allies consisting of RUSSIA and IRAN to halt the offensive given that IDLIB was designated a de-escalation zone under an agreement between the three countries while TURKISH troops are deployed to observation points in the province.
On a positive note, after U.S. backed fighters had surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA, they finally managed to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, have cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. Fighters of the U.S. backed, KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) punched their way through ISIS lines in RAQQA city as KURDISH forces literally shot their way through the streets of RAQQA, concentrating fire on ISIS positions hidden in the urban ruin of RAQQA city while ISIS fought back hard. Meanwhile, witnesses of the aftermath of the battle for RAQQA duly noted that the victory celebrations by KURDISH forces felt muted as there were literally no civilians left in RAQQA such that it was the celebration of the liberation of a ghost town. However, Syrians hoping to return home to RAQQA now that RAQQA has been liberated from ISIS are being told to wait indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby some have already taken their toll in terms of human casualties.
Nonetheless, the current SYRIAN government under the control of President Bashar al-Assad stated that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA, which was liberated from ISIS by the U.S. backed and KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In particular, the existing SYRIAN regime stated that both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime. Therefore, amongst the issues to be resolved about SYRIA, the fate of President Bashar al-Assad is of primary importance. Nonetheless, I was not surprised this week to see ISRAEL launch an attack using jets and ground-to-ground missiles on several military outposts near the SYRIAN capital of DAMASCUS. SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad’s forces said ISRAELI jets fired missiles at the AL-QUTAYFAH area near Damascus from inside Lebanese airspace while the SAA returned fire hitting an ISRAELI aircraft. ISRAEL then fired ground-to-ground rockets from the ISRAELI occupied Golan Heights but SYRIAN defences brought the missiles down before they reached their targets as per the SAA. The SAA also added that ISRAELI jets fired a final barrage of four rockets from inside ISRAEL whereby the SYRIAN air defences were able to bring down one while the others caused material damage in SYRIA.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders.
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures consisting of domestic crackdowns and anti-American rhetoric after a federal jury in NEW YORK convicted a TURKISH banker, Mehmet Hakan Atilla of playing a role in an elaborate gold smuggling scheme that involved bribing high-ranking TURKISH government officials to help IRAN evade AMERICAN sanctions with allegations that the scheme had the approval of TURKEY’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In my opinion, Turkey’s President now feels under siege with both the U.S. government and TURKISH parliamentary opponents accusing him of corruption such that he will continue with further crack down measures. However, domestic crackdowns and anti-American rhetoric are dangerous as with every TURKISH newspaper closed, TURKISH politician arrested and every new diplomatic argument with the U.S. or Europe, TURKEY will further strain its social fabric and weaken its economy. Furthermore, in my opinion, U.S. policy makers could soon find themselves facing a challenging dilemma as President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan becomes more aggressive as the U.S. applies more pressure on him resulting in a greater risk of destabilizing TURKEY even further. In my opinion, getting tougher on TURKEY is unlikely to reverse the negative trajectory of the relationship with the U.S. and Europe and it will ultimately produce diminishing returns as President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has demonstrated that he has assumed the iron man of TURKEY role after the failed “Coup D’État” with strong TURKISH majority backing.
In regards to Turkey and Croatia agreeing to further strengthen their bilateral cooperation, whereby Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic, for her part, said her one-day visit to TURKEY was vital to increase the bilateral trade volume to $ 1 billion such that Croatia does not have problems with TURKEY but can of course further enhance relations with TURKEY, I am not at all surprised. In my opinion, given that Croatia is not a major player on the international geopolitical stage, there is no benefit to Croatia entering into a debate over the issues currently impacting TURKEY. It was obvious to me that Croatia is looking to increase its bilateral trade volume to $ 1 billion such that Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic abstained from entering into any opinions on current TURKISH domestic and geopolitical issues as there is no personal, financial or political interests in challenging TURKEY on any of its current issues. Thus, Croatia is no different than any other country in this world whereby it is making decisions that best serve its personal, financial and political interests which is namely centered upon increasing its economic trading volumes to aid a struggling Croatian economy. Therefore, CROATIA will most likely be rewarded by TURKEY in terms of future economic trade for Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic remaining relatively quite while taking President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s side as concerns the so-called Fethullahist Terrorist Organization (FETO) behind the 2016 failed “Coup D’État” that continues to be active in the Balkans. As a friendly reminder, in 1463, the country today known as Bosnia & Herzegovina, for the most part, was conquered by the Ottoman Empire except for the portion referred to today as Herzegovina consisting of hard-core right wing Croatian separatists that the Ottoman Empire was never able to break. The four centuries of Ottoman rule had a drastic impact on Bosnia’s population make-up, which changed several times as a result of the Ottoman’s conquests creating a Slavic-speaking Muslim community that ultimately emerged and became the largest of the religious groups in Bosnia with whom CROATIA regularly intervenes to motivate TURKEY to invest capital via CROATIAN streams.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Moving on to IRAQ, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after over one year of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power.
Now that the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly transferred from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred to as TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL-QAIM in a lightening fast military offensive. In regards to the IRAQI forces campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants, Western ANBAR is the last region in IRAQ where ISIS held extensive stretches of territories. It is important to note that Iraqi government forces have now driven ISIS out of about 95% of the land ISIS once held in IRAQ and freed more than 4.4 million IRAQIS from ISIS rule. In my opinion, RAWA and the nearby Syrian border town of ALBU KAMAL are of strategic importance to ISIS as the group used routes through these locations to transfer fighters, weapons and goods. Therefore, the towns are also symbolically important because they made up ISIS’s self-declared, cross-border EUPHRATES PROVINCE that was a symbol of ISIS’s intention to eradicate all of the region’s borders between IRAQ and SYRIA. Therefore, since MOSUL was declared free, IRAQI security forces continue to comb western MOSUL areas for hidden ISIS cells despite the victory over ISIS as ISIS is still considered to be a significant security threat even after ISIS’s defeat at its main havens across IRAQI provinces. Therefore, KURDISH and IRAQI forces still need to be vigilant for ISIS reunions to launch attacks through small covert groups of suicide attackers. In my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Hider al-Abadi’s announcement of full liberation of IRAQI lands with an official declaration of an end of the war against ISIS is accurate in theory but not in practice as significant ISIS fighters are still hiding underground like rats. Nonetheless, this week’s announcement by the U.S. ambassador to IRAQ stating that there would be a new decrease of U.S. troops in IRAQ in the upcoming months is long over due. In my opinion, the troops that were previously tasked to provide support of artillery fire in addition to training and advising to the IRAQI forces need to now only focus on training the IRAQI forces on how to preserve the liberated areas, as well as providing humanitarian assistance to the displaced people until they rare able to return to their homes.
However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
In regards to the IRAQI KURDS referendum on independence on September 25, 2017, it is still my opinion that the IRAQI KURDS have the right to pursue their independence pursuant to the majority win by the KURDS with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, albeit the fact that the IRAQI government claims that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. In my opinion, the IRAQI KURDS still need to negotiate with the IRAQI government to respect the IRAQI constitution such that although the KURDISH vote was a clear indication of majority support for separation, the September 25 referendum only serves a symbolic victory thus far, as it cannot be supported legally without further negotiations with the IRAQI government. In summary, when ISIS took over IRAQ in 2014, this fight over KIRKUK and KURDISH independence got largely pushed to the back burner as both IRAQ and KURDISTAN focused on kicking ISIS out of the country. However, now that IRAQI and KURDISH forces have pushed ISIS out of most of IRAQ, these old divisions between IRAQ and KURDISTAN have once again exploded such that the fight over KIRKUK and KURDISH independence could end up once again destabilizing IRAQ all over again. It is important to note that although KURDISH leaders were willing to use the referendum results as an opening bid in negotiations with IRAQ over expanded autonomy, federal forces responded by retaking KIRKUK and other disputed areas outside the KURDS’ autonomous region with limited bloodshed as most KURDISH forces withdrew without a fight although scattered clashes did break out.
In my opinion, the international community needs to condemn IRAQ’s military aggression on the KURDS as excessive, unreasonable and unjustified, particularly in light of the fact that KURDISH blood soaks KIRKUK as it was the KURDS who stood tall against ISIS and refused to allow KIRKUK to fall while the IRAQI military shat full their overalls when ISIS was charging full speed while the KURDS refused to secede. Unfortunately, the U.S. is closely allied with both the IRAQI military and KURDISH forces, which together have driven ISIS out from most of IRAQ. In my opinion, negotiations between IRAQI military officials and their KURDISH counterparts under the banner of the U.S. in FISH KHABUR to try to find a settlement for recent disputes and the threat of further military confrontation particularly over the border crossing points was critical to avert a full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the discussions seem to show that both the IRAQI and KURDISH militaries want to avoid a full fledge civil war as they both seem to be inclined to prefer to share in the oil rich jewels of KURDISTAN as opposed to risking the destruction of the entire region to end up winning the civil war but being left with nothing to show.
However, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. Therefore, in my opinion, the KURDS will no longer accept being treated like second-class citizens in IRAQ such that the KURDS will in essence retake control of their destinies within the IRAQI federal system via a quiet revolution to avert further bloodshed in IRAQ that could risk the complete and utter destruction of the entire KURDISTAN region. In my opinion, this weeks killing of the so-called ISIS mufti of KIRKUK identified as Abdul Qader al-Azzi and three of his ISIS companions is critical to resuscitating, rehabilitating and rejuvenating KURDISTAN as any remaining remnants of ISIS are past the point of rehabilitation as they are in such deep hate induced coma states of poisoned minds that not even God can fix the damage done to their brain washed minds psychologically. In my opinion, reinforcing military troops in the south and west of HAWIJA is critical as the region still has ISIS members roaming the territory who escaped during the liberation by KURDISH forces to remote areas such that troops must continue tracking down ISIS remnants in Hawija and its surroundings until all ISIS security risks have been neutralized.
In my opinion, these are challenging times for the KURDISH region such that KURDISH frustrations are understandable but the KURDISH extremist violence is never acceptable so that the KURDS need to conduct their protests peacefully. In my opinion, the KURDISH government has exercised commendable restraint to avoid a full fledge civil war bloodbath with recent concessions made by the KURDISH government to the IRAQI government that clearly demonstrates that the KURDS desire to reach a peaceful negotiated settlement to this conflict. Therefore, I am now convinced more than ever that constructive dialogue can begin between the KURDISH and IRAQI governments that will result in a peaceful long-term sustainable solution.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH strategic focus on ISIS is key to overall peace in the region as the only issue that everybody in the region seems to agree upon is that ISIS needs to be contained to an underground organization without any significant control of land particularly along any major borders. Thus, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, it finally does appear that ISIS has been defeated in DEIR AL-ZOR, AL-MAYADEEN and AL-BUKAMAL albeit violent clashes that sporadically continue to erupt around the town as ISIS finds itself trapped like rats underground only to be swept to the surface as the SAA goes through their respective sweeping operations across the outskirts of town. However, with the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declaring that they have completely wiped out ISIS in Syria, I expect that the remaining ISIS militants will be hiding in small towns and villages along the border with IRAQ in the SYRIAN dessert such that the remaining portion of no mans land along the Middle Euphrates River Valley will most likely represent ISIS’s last stand. In my opinion, ISIS still controls thousands of square kilometres of desert in the DEIR AL-ZOR, HOMS, IDLIB and DARAA regions such that although ISIS has been forced out of major SYRIAN cities, ISIS is still able to stage attacks on SAA and other rebel forces from these desert areas such that victory may have been achieved albeit ISIS still existing as a thorn in everybodies sides.
However, this week, I was surprised to see that a Syrian Arab Army (SAA) offensive on SYRIA’s largest remaining rebel stronghold consisting of IDLIB that has displaced some 100,000 SYRIAN civilians was reignited. In my opinion, the situation for those forced from their homes is terrible, dreadful, appalling, frightful, awful, atrocious, grim and alarming as more than 500,000 people have arrived in rebel-held areas from other parts of SYRIA, leaving already-stretched humanitarian organisations struggling to help those in need. In my opinion, the escalation in fighting between pro-government SAA forces and rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an al-Qaeda linked jihadist alliance that dominates IDLIB, has caused civilian casualties, damaged infrastructure and led to mass displacement that nobody can control as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, considered a terrorist organization, was not included in negotiations with the SYRIAN government when de-escalation zones were established such that over 100,000 people have been forced to flee their homes since November.
In regards to U.S. backed fighters surrounding the Syrian city of RAQQA as they finally ousted the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA, capturing RAQQA represents a major achievement in the battle against ISIS and helps to bring an end to ISIS’s reign of terror trying to create a so-called Caliphate. In my opinion, ISIS has used RAQQA for over three years to stage deadly attacks on the Middle East and further overseas such that capturing RAQQA from ISIS significantly reduces ISIS’s terrorist capabilities in the future. Therefore, the strength of the ISIS terrorists is running out as their defeats thus far in RAQQA have undermined their morale and prevented them from fighting back effectively other than hiding behind innocent civilians as human shields. Unfortunately, the by-product of this liberation of RAQQA from ISIS appears to be the complete destruction of RAQQA that in my opinion can be attributed to the ALLIANCES’s relentless aerial bombardment of RAQQA to compensate for the weaknesses of its SDF forces on the ground. This was evident during victory celebrations by KURDISH forces that felt muted, as there were literally no civilians left in RAQQA such that it was the celebration of the liberation of a ghost town. In my opinion, ISIS is to blame for the complete destruction of RAQQA as with ISIS’s sole remaining technique of hiding behind civilians for cover, there was no other way to liberate RAQQA than via complete destruction of the city, the death and maiming of hundreds of civilians and the displacement of tens of thousands.
In my opinion, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires. In my opinion, now in its seventh year, the war in SYRIA has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society.
However, as ISIS literally disappears from the face of the map in SYRIA, the question has become whether a race to conquer the oil rich regions could result in a showdown between the international coalitions consisting of the U.S. and SDF forces on the one side and the RUSSIAN and SAA forces on the other. In my opinion, a direct military confrontation is unlikely to take place but the SYRIAN regime is in great need of the region’s oil to boost its struggling economy after the U.S. seized oil fields in RAQQA, the AL-OMAR oil field and a natural gas field in DEIR EZ-ZOR. Therefore, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS. Thus, in my opinion, only RUSSIA has the possibility to negotiate a deal between ALL parties because RUSSIA has worked with most major players in SYRIA to create several de-escalation zones where fighting has stopped and the opposition movements have been allowed to remain in control. Nonetheless, the realities of the ISIS organization are that ISIS will not disappear completely off the face of the map as they still have quite a bit of amassed wealth such that eventually some sort of ceasefire deal will need to be negotiated with ISIS to contain them to limited restricted areas as opposed to dispersing them across the globe and giving ISIS the opportunity to launch covert terrorist strikes globally.
Nonetheless, I was not surprised this week to see the SYRIAN issues spilling over into ISRAEL as ISRAEL launched an attack using jets and ground-to-ground missiles on several military outposts near the SYRIAN capital of DAMASCUS. In my opinion, as usual, ISRAELI Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, refused to confirm or deny the bombardment but issued an unusually defiant statement declaring ISRAEL would see through its policy of preventing HEZBOLLAH from arming itself in LEBANON with action. As a friendly reminder, HEZBOLLAH is the militant Lebanese Shiite organization that is aiding President Bashar al-Assad in SYRIA but who also is ISRAEL’s arch nemesis with which ISRAEL fought a fierce month-long war in 2006. While ISRAEL has made no secret of its policy of acting to prevent transfers of weapons to HEZBOLLAH, ISRAEL has thus far refused to confirm or deny involvement in any particular strikes preferring to maintain ambiguity in the hope of lowering the pressure on the other side to retaliate. In my opinion, ISRAEL will do whatever it takes to prevent SYRIAN territory from being used to set up bases or transfer advanced weaponry to HEZBOLLAH such that ISRAEL has struck in SYRIA at least 100 times to this end since the war commenced over six years ago. In my opinion, this never ending war between HEZBOLLAH and ISRAEL will once again result with the SYRIAN government seeing the attack by ISRAEL as a flagrant ISRAELI aggression and renew SYRIA’s warning of the dangerous repercussions of such attacks while holding ISRAEL fully responsibility for any HEZBOLLAH retaliatory consequences like a soap opera without any foreseeable end entitled THE HATE and THE RESTLESS.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 281” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding legalistic stupidities as seen this week whereby TURKEY and CROATIA agreed to further strengthen their bilateral cooperation to increase the bilateral trade volume to $ 1 billion as CROATIA is no different than any other country in this world whereby it is making decisions that best serve its personal, financial and political interests which is namely centered upon increasing its economic trading volumes to aid a struggling CROATIAN economy while avoiding discussions about Herzegovina consisting of hard-core right wing CROATIAN separatists that the Ottoman Empire was never able to break while focusing on the remaining BOSNIAN population make-up consisting of a Slavic-speaking Muslim community that ultimately emerged and became the largest of the religious groups in BOSNIA with whom CROATIA regularly intervenes to motivate TURKEY to invest capital via CROATIAN streams.
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