World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 231

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 231

As a continuation from my last blog whereby I believe the root of “World Peace” is centered on peace in the Middle East with the first step being negotiated peace between Israel and the Palestinians, I would like to remain objective and independent in my views such that I would like to today bring Iraq into my views as they seem to be the closest at this time to a full fledge civil war of rage like wild animals stuck together in a cage. However, it is important to note that Israel and Palestine seem to be awakening from their hatred induced coma state with the potential for peace negotiations to be resumed in the near future in the United States, while Egypt continues to operate in supremacy domination mode whereby the minority Christian military continues to hold on to power while the Muslim majority is fuming at the seams hoping to awaken from this horrible dream. As for the Syrians, both sides are still in anger induced coma state for the mentally insane such that millions of Syrians continue to suffer each and every day. In terms of the Russians and Ukrainians, they seem to have entered into a political war game whereby neither party wishes to concede but rather seems to prefer to enter into a civil war and commit dirty deeds. While Israelis, Palestinians, Egyptians, Syrians, Russians and Ukrainians continue along their respective paths toward enlightenment, it is now time for the Iraqis to be enlightened as to the path of quelling their current tensions before any more civil war breaks out which bears the risk of leading to a third and final world war on this earth, after which, there will be no place for anyone left to run. In summary, Observers around the world are stunned by the speed and scope of assaults on every major city in the upper Tigris River Valley, including Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS. However, as the ISIS rebels extend their reach across Iraq, the U.S. Air Force was forced to intervene in order to prevent Genocide while Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki relinquished power opening a new political chapter that U.S. officials hope will move Iraq toward a more unified front against Islamic jihadists currently running wild and literally beheading “Infidels” like pigs without shedding a tear as blood spills out of their victims giving everybody creepy chills.

During the week ending on Sunday, January 29, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their aggressive siege of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians, over one month ago. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued cleaning house again this week after nearly three months since the failed “Coup D’État” for which officials continue to blame the disciples of TURKISH cleric Fethullah Gulen.  A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP finally continued to de-escalate slightly this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on diverting attention from TURKEY to SYRIA as TURKEY stated that it is waiting to see the outcome of U.S. President Donald Trump’s pledge to order safe zones in SYRIA. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he would absolutely ensure that safe zones are implemented in SYRIA for refugees fleeing violence. TURKEY reiterated that it has long advocated setting up of safe zones and used the town of JARABLUS near the Turkish border as an example of an effective safe zone. As a friendly reminder, JARABLUS was freed from ISIS by Turkish-backed Syrian rebels last August in an offensive, dubbed Euphrates Shield, that drove ISIS from the last 100 km strip of TURKISH border territory ISIS controlled and created what TURKISH officials refer to as a de facto safe zone. It is important to note that TURKEY has long supported the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels fighting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in a complex, multi-faceted conflict that has now divided Syria into a patchwork of areas controlled by KURDISH militias, ISIS and various rebel groups.

Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and US-led ALLIANCE forces continued with their offensive against ISIS on MOSUL. However, ISIS has sent the message to the world that it will do whatever it takes to defend MOSUL as ISIS has chosen the usage of its own people as human shields. Nonetheless, IRAQI and ALLIED forces managed to push ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces appear to have liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS. As a friendly reminder, MOSUL that is divided by the Tigris River with both east and west sides respectively making up about half of the population of MOSUL was impressively liberated by the IRAQI and KURDISH Peshmerga forces. These elite ALLIANCE forces managed to fight through an elaborate defense system formed by ISIS over the past two years that not only managed to keep the ALLIANCE forces out but contemporaneously managed to keep the residents of MOSUL trapped in as captives. Thus far, since the battle first commenced on October 17, IRAQI, KURDISH and ALLIED forces advances have been impressive on their push to retake MOSUL, ISIS's de facto capital in IRAQ where as many as 1.5 million people are believed to still remain. However, progress has been slow as the ALLIANCE forces have faced counterattacks from the ISIS fighters who deployed hundreds of suicide car bombs, as well as mortars and snipers and used MOSUL’s million plus residents as human shields. Unfortunately, ISIS is still a force to be reckoned with, due to its significant wealth amassed in safe havens abroad, such that although the battle for MOSUL will likely lead to the end of the ISIS era in IRAQ, the ISIS wealth abroad will likely lead to ISIS taking the fight to the streets on foreign soil which will necessitate heightened security measures until kingdom come. Therefore, the US-led ALLIANCE needs to be on heightened security alerts world wide as ISIS will look to find any and all possible retributory strikes, the most savage and barbarian possible, in an attempt to save face from a humiliating defeat of its MOSUL base.

Moving on to SYRIA, SYRIAN government forces have retaken full control of ALEPPO, since the uprising began, after nearly six years of bloody fighting for Syria’s most populous city and SYRIA’s economic hub that has been the most prized and fiercely contested city throughout the Syrian conflict. As a friendly reminder, since the Syrian army’s assault against rebel held ALEPPO began in late September, RUSSIAN and SYRIAN government bombardments have killed more than 1,000 people, including over 250 children while injuring over 5,000. Now, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be holding as its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the six-year conflict. RUSSIA that has invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for the past 15 months started to cut back its forces in SYRIA beginning with an aircraft carrier group as the ceasefire appeared to take hold. Against all odds, the ceasefire largely continues to hold as peace negotiations have commenced in ASTANA, KAZAKHSTAN with TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, backing these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the process threatens to be derailed after a powerful Jihadist group crushed an FSA faction over recent days. That is, the JABHAT FATEH AL-SHAM jihadist group, formerly known as NUSRA FRONT with its stronghold in IDLIB province in north-western Syria, seem to be frustrated by progress made in ASTANA and appear to be looking to intentionally disrupt the fragile ceasefire albeit the responsibility of TURKEY, RUSSIA and IRAN to prevent such disruptions from happening. However, several militias formed an alliance with key Islamist group AHRAR AL-SHAM to mount a formidable defense amid some of the worst inter-factional clashes in recent times. As a friendly reminder, JABHAT FATEH AL-SHAM was excluded from the ceasefire declared across Syria as they are considered a terrorist group by the powers backing the ceasefire.

In my opinion, Turkey’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit Turkey’s negative stance against the PKK which in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the recent majority victory by the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that Turkey’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during recent Turkish elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow Turkey to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for Turkey signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in Greece. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, Turkey will receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the current failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the recent European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders. Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP de-escalated further this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on diverting attention from TURKEY to SYRIA as TURKEY stated that it is waiting to see the outcome of U.S. President Donald Trump’s pledge to order safe zones in SYRIA which TURKEY has been advocating from the outset focusing attention on the town of JARABLUS near the Turkish border as an example of an effective safe zone that was freed from ISIS by Turkish-backed Syrian rebels last August. In my opinion, TURKEY is now commencing to apply EU style politics in a gallant effort to bridge the gap in ideologies by utilizing the popular EU techniques of bias and selective filtering as TURKEY did not mention that the creation of the safe zone of JARABLUS also served the TURKISH interests by preventing KURDISH YPG fighters, backed by the U.S., from seizing ground in the wake of the JARABLUS liberation from ISIS. Therefore, it seems that TURKEY is now attempting to follow the EU example of utilizing filtered politics to pursue its majority AKP agenda of silencing all minorities politically as opposed to through the utilization of brute force. In my opinion, TURKEY has been forced to modify its internal approach to opposition as the aftershocks from media attention of the violence in TURKEY have resulted in TURKEY heading in the direction of an economic collapse in the face of rising violence and WESTERN tourists recently choosing to avoid TURKEY. Unfortunately, TURKEY has regressed from the ISLAMIC role model the world once envied as a result of TURKEY’s past achievements to a TURKEY today that is in the headlines for all the wrong reasons including a sagging tourism industry, deflated currency and a depressed TURKISH economy that once did fuel President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s popularity. However, the TURKISH AKP seems to be slowly awakening from its hate-induced coma of all minority opposition groups to assimilate into the EU political model whereby minority opposition groups are silenced by sheer resource constraints. That is, under the EU method of operation minority opposition groups are squeezed financially into silence via utilization of old school bleeding techniques whereby those who are too busy bandaging open wounds will not be able to mount any significant opposition. In my opinion, the governing AKP in TURKEY seems to be quite talented in the modern art of personal, financial and political interests manipulation, coercing and assimilation that they may try to squeeze the minority opposition groups politically to the point that suicide rates sky rocket in TURKEY.

Moving on to IRAQ, the recent successful attacks on ISIS by IRAQI security forces in MOSUL, has clearly sent the message to ISIS that it is just a matter of time until the ISIS Empire in MOSUL dies. However, the IRAQI led troops on the ground are essentially forced to fight ISIS style, which is slow and brutal for any other type of heavy artillery attack on ISIS, will result in significant collateral damage in terms of human casualties. Unfortunately ISIS has managed to set new rules of war, with complete and utter disregard for the laws of war as promulgated by the GENEVA convention, which is essentially that there are no rules other than the dirtiest player in the game wins. Thus, the world finds itself going backwards to the days of Barbarian, Neanderthal, Self-Centered, Egotistical, Narcissistic, Masochistic, Sadistic, Idiosyncratic, Sociopathic and Psychopathic maniacs. Therefore, the ALLIANCE forces recapture of eastern MOSUL in its entirety must be praised as a resurrection eulogy from the dead as ALLIANCE forces fended off mortar, sniper and drone attacks, while ISIS used humans, including children, and stored weapons in hospitals, mosques and schools as ISIS resorted to desperation methods until the very end to withstand defeat at the hands of ALLIANCE forces. In my opinion, ALLIANCE forces have come a long way since 2014 not only militarily but also in their ability to put their respective differences aside and focus on a common ISIS enemy. Therefore, this victory by ALLIANCE troops over ISIS in eastern MOSUL gives real hope to the people of IRAQ that after years of fighting and instability, peace and security are attainable and within reach. Thus, in my opinion, assuming that the KURDISH peshmerga, IRAQI army, SHIITE militia and some SUNNI militia forces continue to overlook their differences and stick together, ISIS will inevitably be decimated in IRAQ, although ISIS will likely survive as an incognito terrorist organization throughout the world. In my opinion, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations.

Moving on to SYRIA, the latest news that the SYRIAN government forces have recaptured the entire former rebel stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears to still be holding after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for the past 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, Iran and Shiite militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have commenced in ASTANA, KAZAKHSTAN with TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, backing these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the process threatens to be derailed after the JABHAT FATEH AL-SHAM jihadist group crushed an FSA faction. In my opinion, this attack was a clear sign that JABHAT FATEH AL-SHAM has been frustrated by the progress made in ASTANA and appear to be looking to intentionally disrupt the fragile ceasefire from which they were excluded on the basis of their terrorist status in the region. However, in my opinion, the response by several militias that formed an alliance with key Islamist group AHRAR AL-SHAM to mount a formidable defense amid some of the worst inter-factional clashes in recent times was necessary. In my opinion, this war is equivalent to a street fight amongst rival street gangs that the political process cannot control under the banner of diplomacy such that this street gang war should not derail the peace talks in ASTANA to the extent the major players do not get involved in this street fight war. In my opinion, to the extent JABHAT FATEH AL-SHAM and AHRAR AL-SHAM kill amongst themselves, the other major players should continue with the peace process while time will tell whether these two parties will effectively neutralize each others. To the extent, these two powerful sides do not neutralize themselves over time then the end result of the peace process should be a coordinated strike by RUSSIA and TURKEY to quell both of these extremist factions once and for all. Unfortunately, extremist factions will always exist than cannot be controlled by institutional will such that to the extent they kill amongst their own, the major players should let them go but if the situation gets out of control, one major coordinated offensive will be required to strike one big punishing blow.

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 231” as the belief that MOSUL victory is critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while extremist factions cannot be controlled but to the extent they kill amongst their own, they should be let to go until the situation gets out of control and requires one big punishing blow.

Spirit of John Lennon – Kurdish Guerrilla Song:

January 29, 2017