World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 229

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 229

As a continuation from my last blog whereby I believe the root of “World Peace” is centered on peace in the Middle East with the first step being negotiated peace between Israel and the Palestinians, I would like to remain objective and independent in my views such that I would like to today bring Iraq into my views as they seem to be the closest at this time to a full fledge civil war of rage like wild animals stuck together in a cage. However, it is important to note that Israel and Palestine seem to be awakening from their hatred induced coma state with the potential for peace negotiations to be resumed in the near future in the United States, while Egypt continues to operate in supremacy domination mode whereby the minority Christian military continues to hold on to power while the Muslim majority is fuming at the seams hoping to awaken from this horrible dream. As for the Syrians, both sides are still in anger induced coma state for the mentally insane such that millions of Syrians continue to suffer each and every day. In terms of the Russians and Ukrainians, they seem to have entered into a political war game whereby neither party wishes to concede but rather seems to prefer to enter into a civil war and commit dirty deeds. While Israelis, Palestinians, Egyptians, Syrians, Russians and Ukrainians continue along their respective paths toward enlightenment, it is now time for the Iraqis to be enlightened as to the path of quelling their current tensions before any more civil war breaks out which bears the risk of leading to a third and final world war on this earth, after which, there will be no place for anyone left to run. In summary, Observers around the world are stunned by the speed and scope of assaults on every major city in the upper Tigris River Valley, including Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS. However, as the ISIS rebels extend their reach across Iraq, the U.S. Air Force was forced to intervene in order to prevent Genocide while Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki relinquished power opening a new political chapter that U.S. officials hope will move Iraq toward a more unified front against Islamic jihadists currently running wild and literally beheading “Infidels” like pigs without shedding a tear as blood spills out of their victims giving everybody creepy chills.

During the week ending on Sunday, January 15, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their aggressive siege of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians, over one month ago. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued cleaning house again this week after nearly three months since the failed “Coup D’État” for which officials continue to blame the disciples of TURKISH cleric Fethullah Gulen.  A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP finally de-escalated slightly this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on the CYPRUS reunification talks with the participation of TURKISH Cypriot leader Mustafa Akinci and the President of CYPRUS Nicos Anastasiades which was held in GENEVA, Switzerland along with the participation of CYPRUS’s guarantor countries consisting of Greece, Turkey, UK and EU. As a friendly reminder, the end goal is for GREEK Cypriot and TURKISH Cypriot communities to share power in a two-state federation. However, any deal would have to win the support of both GREEK Cypriot and TURKISH Cypriot communities in separate referendums. While EU diplomats have stated that positive progress was being made, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that GREECE and the CYPRIOT government still have different expectations from TURKEY as a full withdrawal of TURKISH forces from divided CYPRUS is out of the question for TURKEY unless GREECE also agrees to pull out all of their troops. As a friendly reminder, in 1974 CYPRIOT President, Archbishop Makarios was removed from power in a “Coup D’État” backed by GREECE's military triggering TURKEY to send their troops to the island that effectively occupied one third of CYPRUS in the north. Ironically, Finland’s Foreign Minister Timo Soini who voted to halt TURKEY’s EU accession, backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État”, now seemed to be courting TURKEY once again. FINLAND now stated that cooperation between the EU and Turkey would present a win-win scenario for both sides and could result in better trade, security and prosperity for both FINLAND and TURKEY. Finland further reiterated that a successful conclusion of the CYPRUS peace talks in GENEVA would serve as a model that results are obtainable in relations between TURKEY and the EU and that TURKEY and the EU should continue working together on the refugee issue, as the absence of such cooperation would create more problems for both sides.

Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and US-led ALLIANCE forces continued with their offensive against ISIS on MOSUL. However, ISIS has sent the message to the world that it will do whatever it takes to defend MOSUL as ISIS has chosen the usage of its own people as human shields. Nonetheless, IRAQI and ALLIED forces managed to push ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces stormed a university complex in northeast MOSUL pushing ISIS back to reach two more bridges across the critical TIGRIS RIVER although ISIS militants put up a strong fight along the entire path. Iraqi forces have now recaptured most districts in eastern MOSUL and aim to take full control of the eastern bank of the TIGRIS RIVER that bisects MOSUL from north to south before launching attacks on the western side still fully under ISIS control. The U.S. led coalition that is backing the offensive with air strikes; training and advice praised the advances with new tactics employed since the turn of the year, including night raids and better defences against suicide car bombs, which have given the MOSUL campaign fresh momentum since the battle first commenced on October 17. Thus far, IRAQI, KURDISH and ALLIED forces advances have been impressive on their push to retake MOSUL, ISIS's de facto capital in IRAQ where as many as 1.5 million people are believed to still remain. However, progress has been slow as the ALLIANCE forces have faced counterattacks from the ISIS fighters who deployed hundreds of suicide car bombs, as well as mortars and snipers and used MOSUL’s million plus residents as human shields. Unfortunately, ISIS is still a force to be reckoned with, due to its significant wealth amassed in safe havens abroad, such that although the battle for MOSUL will likely lead to the end of the ISIS era in IRAQ, the ISIS wealth abroad will likely lead to ISIS taking the fight to the streets on foreign soil which will necessitate heightened security measures until kingdom come. Therefore, the US-led ALLIANCE needs to be on heightened security alerts world wide as ISIS will look to find any and all possible retributory strikes, the most savage and barbarian possible, in an attempt to save face from a humiliating defeat of its MOSUL base.

Moving on to SYRIA, SYRIAN government forces have retaken full control of ALEPPO, since the uprising began, after nearly six years of bloody fighting for Syria’s most populous city and SYRIA’s economic hub that has been the most prized and fiercely contested city throughout the Syrian conflict. As a friendly reminder, since the Syrian army’s assault against rebel held ALEPPO began in late September, RUSSIAN and SYRIAN government bombardments have killed more than 1,000 people, including over 250 children while injuring over 5,000. Now, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be holding as its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the six-year conflict. RUSSIA that has invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for the past 15 months started to cut back its forces in SYRIA beginning with an aircraft carrier group as the ceasefire appeared to take hold. Against all odds, the ceasefire continues to hold as peace negotiations are slated to take place in late January in ASTANA, KAZAKHSTAN although rebel groups have complained of Syrian regime violations since the ceasefire came into force on December 30 and warned that they could boycott the talks if the violations continue. However, the SYRIAN regime says it is going after terrorists who were deliberately excluded from the agreement. In an unusual redirection of strategy, TURKEY has now advised that the US will be invited to the fresh SYRIA peace talks being organised by RUSSIA and TURKEY this month but Russia declined to confirm the invitation. In addition, President Bashar al-Assad accused Israel of bombing a key airbase near the capital of DAMASCUS condemning the incident as a desperate attempt to support terrorist organisations. Israel has largely been spared any spill over from SYRIA's war but it has voiced concern with the role played by Hezbollah, the guerrilla group with which Israel has fought multiple wars, most recently in 2006. According to Israeli breaking, the airport was bombed because it was a suspected holding ammunition depots for Hezbollah. Israeli defence officials have voiced concern that Hezbollah's experience in the Syrian civil war, where it has played a significant role and recently helped the Syrian army regain the eastern sector of the city of Aleppo, has strengthened it.

In my opinion, Turkey’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit Turkey’s negative stance against the PKK which in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the recent majority victory by the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that Turkey’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during recent Turkish elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow Turkey to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for Turkey signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in Greece. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, Turkey will receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the current failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the recent European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders. Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP de-escalated slightly this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on the CYPRUS reunification peace talks in GENEVA. As a friendly reminder, the CYPRUS reunification deal has been lingering since 2004 when Cyprus, still divided, joined the EU, after a UN peace plan was backed by TURKISH Cypriots but rejected by the GREEK Cypriots. However, in my opinion, there once again appears to be a glimmer of hope for a solution for CYPRUS as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan tries to divert attention from his wide scale purge following the failed “Coup D’État”. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has cleaned house in TURKEY such that there is no opposition left to punish other than paraplegic dissenters for which the TURKISH government does not have the necessary facilities to incarcerate. Therefore, TURKEY can now turn the page and focus on other domestic issues, namely future relations with the EU as FINLAND has clearly stated that the EU and TURKEY should continue working together on the refugee issue, as the absence of such cooperation would create more problems for both sides. In my opinion, regardless of whether or not the EU agrees with TURKISH internal and domestic policies, TURKEY is a major player in the region such that TURKEY still continues to have the muscle to impact EU policies and procedures as personal, financial and political interests continue to rule of which TURKEY still holds a significant portion. Therefore, TURKEY may continue with their autocratic rule internally but TURKEY understands very well the EU method of operation as well whereby money talks and shit walks. Thus, to the extent TURKEY still controls a significant amount of the regions interests, TURKEY cannot be ignored but rather will need to be slightly conformed. In my opinion, the EU will attempt to conform TURKEY into the EU fold by convincing TURKEY that there is no need for such a harsh autocratic rule since the TURKISH AKP holds the cash such that the AKP can subdue the opposition to resource limitation brass. That is, everyone in TURKEY can be given freedom of choice and speech while limiting their resource availabilities such that to the extent they starve, they will not pose any risk to the AKP regime desires.

Moving on to IRAQ, the recent successful attacks on ISIS by IRAQI security forces in MOSUL, has clearly sent the message to ISIS that it is just a matter of time until the ISIS Empire in MOSUL dies. However, the IRAQI led troops on the ground are essentially forced to fight ISIS style, which is slow and brutal for any other type of heavy artillery attack on ISIS, will result in significant collateral damage in terms of human casualties. Unfortunately ISIS has managed to set new rules of war, with complete and utter disregard for the laws of war as promulgated by the GENEVA convention, which is essentially that there are no rules other than the dirtiest player in the game wins. Thus, the world finds itself going backwards to the days of Barbarian, Neanderthal, Self-Centered, Egotistical, Narcissistic, Masochistic, Sadistic, Idiosyncratic, Sociopathic and Psychopathic maniacs. Therefore, the Iraqi forces recapture of most districts in eastern MOSUL with the aim to take full control of the eastern bank of the TIGRIS RIVER that bisects MOSUL from north to south before launching attacks on the western side still fully under ISIS control seems to be progressing slowly but surely. Therefore, the IRAQI and ALLIANCE forces deserve a moment of praise as they have effectively managed to have ISIS’s hell raised. That is, the IRAQI and ALLIANCE forces have managed to beat ISIS at their own game by resorting to more street fighting methods such as night-time bombing campaigns and suicide pre-emptive blasts to cut-off the head off the ISIS snake before ISIS can release its dreaded venomous poisonous sting of blood bath massacre wrath. However, in my opinion, assuming that the KURDISH peshmerga, IRAQI army, SHIITE militia and some SUNNI militia forces continue to overlook their differences and stick together, ISIS will inevitably be decimated in IRAQ, although ISIS will likely survive as an incognito terrorist organization throughout the world. In my opinion, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations.

Moving on to SYRIA, the latest news that the SYRIAN government forces have recaptured the entire former rebel stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears to still be holding after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for the past 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, Iran and Shiite militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel factions. Meanwhile, the US lost all relevance to the SYRIAN conflict as RUSSIA, President Bashar al-Assad, Iran and Hezbollah have zero interest in hearing anything more from the USA who advocated from the outset the removal of President Bashar al-Assad from power as a pre-condition to any negotiations. However, now that TURKEY has advised that the US will be invited to the fresh SYRIA peace talks, although Russia declined to confirm the invitation, TURKEY has signalled that the US still has significant political clout in the region to participate in peace talks as a more passive observer as it is clear to me that RUSSIA and TURKEY are now the active negotiators. In my opinion, RUSSIA and TURKEY have the greatest probability for success in brokering a sustainable long-term solution to the SYRIAN crisis such that the US should accept its secondary role as passive observer and give RUSSIA and TURKEY the green light to proceed forward expeditiously further. In regards to ISRAEL, that has largely been spared any spill over from SYRIA's war, bombing the airport in DAMASCUS because ISRAEL claimed it was a suspected holding ammunition depots for HEZBOLLAH may have been slightly premature. In my opinion ISRAEL has been closely monitoring the activities of its arch nemesis HEZBOLLAH such that ISRAEL’s intelligence agency is probably right in its assessment that the airport was being used as a holding ammunition depots for HEZBOLLAH. However, in my opinion, it was not demonstrated, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that HEZBOLLAH was planning to use these weapons for purposes of striking ISRAEL directly in the future such that it is debatable whether these strikes by ISRAEL may have been premature or alternatively a deliberate warning to HEZBOLLAH from ISRAEL whereby every step HEZBOLLAH takes, every move HEZBOLLAH makes, ISRAEL will be watching HEZBOLLAH. Nonetheless, in my opinion, the current situation in ALEPPO is still deplorable as innocent civilians are living in a literal hell on earth as the entire city is covered in blood with diminishing food, necessities and basic supplies while innocent civilians continue to die. Unfortunately, the sporadic fighting that continues to be enflamed, between President Bashar al-Assad’s forces and the FSA, whereby both parties engage in the finger pointing game, is collateral damage after over six years of relentless hate, while spitting directly in each others face, while behaving with complete and utter disrespect and disgrace, that will take decades to replace.

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 229” as the belief that ISIS is evil such that the MOSUL victory is critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also critical to hold while ISRAEL strikes on HEZBOLLAH weapons depots need to be limited and controlled to avoid spill over wars.

Spirit of John Lennon – Kurdish Guerrilla Song:

January 15, 2017