In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 315” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby the recent strikes in SYRIA by ISRAEL, seem to indicate that the brief ceasefire on the SYRIAN border is over, as ISRAEL seems to be going back to operations as usual whereby to the extent ISRAEL identifies an IRANIAN danger, ISRAEL reserves the right to deviate from its understandings with RUSSIA, by exercising its right to respond accordingly with force, hence ISRAEL seems to be sending the message to IRAN that ISRAEL’s goal is to destroy any remaining IRANIAN military presence in SYRIA, even though IRAN has denied the allegations by ISRAEL, that IRAN plans to establish a permanent, broad military strangle hold in SYRIA, including advanced missile factories as well as air and naval bases, as ISRAEL seems to be psychologically traumatized by the idea of IRAN turning SYRIA into its outpost against ISRAEL, albeit the realities that with ISRAEL watching the IRANIANS closely with every move they make and every breath they take, IRAN is significantly limited in its abilities to manoeuvre freely in SYRIA, as ISRAEL seems to have successfully gotten into the IRANIANS heads with shock and awe attacks, combined with punitive sanctions traps, to the point that the IRANIANS in SYRIA appear to have become slightly handicapped.
TURKEY News
During the week ending on Sunday, September 9, 2018, the focus in TURKEY seemed to shift to the TURKISH struggling economy, largely attributable to a lack of confidence by foreign investors, due largely to TURKEY’s repressive crackdown measures on all opposition movements. It is important to note that, three weeks ago, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan allowed TURKEY’s two-year state of emergency to come to an end but as trials of dissidents and journalists continue, human rights campaigners continue to pressure TURKEY to do more to reverse a suffocating crackdown on free speech. Critics claim that the state of emergency, in place since the failed “Coup D’État” in July of 2016 that killed 250 people and wounded 1,400, has been used to detain opponents of the governing AKP for lengthy periods of time without trial to intimidate dissidents and to prosecute media outlets. That is, more than 120,000 people in the police, military, academia, media and civil service have been detained or dismissed from their jobs over their alleged links to Fethullah Gulen who is the exiled TURKISH preacher based now in the U.S. who TURKEY blames as the brains behind the operations for the failed “Coup D’État”.
However, the behaviours of TURKEY’s governing AKP seem to be taking their toll on the TURKISH economy as turbulent politics have resulted in economic turmoil whereby the sliding TURKISH Lira has set-off alarm bells across TURKEY as businesses struggle to cope with the financial impacts of a declining TURKISH Lira. Ironically, TURKEY’s finance minister insisted that TURKEYS’s economy did not face any significant risks, despite the TURKISH Lira plunging to its lowest point after new economic data was released that points to the risk of a sharp economic slowdown in TURKEY. However, the TURKISH Lira that has lost about 40% of its value against the U.S. dollar this year hit severe lows after TURKEY’s economic confidence index also hit extreme lows. It is important to note that U.S. rating agency Moody’s downgraded 20 TURKISH financial institutions due to increased risks of a sudden shift in investor sentiment that could leave TURKISH banks struggling to attract the foreign financing that keeps the TURKISH banking sector liquid.
Thus, TURKISH banks that borrowed heavily abroad now face the near impossible task of refinancing short-term debt in expensive U.S. Dollars and E.U. Euros. It is important to note that around $180 billion in TURKISH foreign debt matures from now until the end of July of 2019, of which approximately $145 billion is owed by the private sector, particularly TURKISH banks, which borrowed heavily abroad in foreign denominated currencies. Therefore, TURKEY will be hit with a currency mismatch as TURKEY mostly earns returns on investments in TURKISH Lira, while it has to payback its foreign currency denominated debt by converting a plummeting TURKISH Lira, resulting in significantly higher debt payments. Nonetheless, TURKEY seems to prefer to put its TURKISH pride first by ignoring U.S. President Donald Trump’s request to free the detained American Pastor, Andrew Craig Brunson, which could quickly end TURKEY’s Lira weakening crisis due to the effects of U.S. imposed sanctions.
In regards to the U.S. demands to release American Pastor, Andrew Craig Brunson, who has been held for nearly two years in TURKEY in a case that has strained relations between the two countries, TURKISH officials met with U.S. officials for high level meetings in Washington a couple of weeks ago without an apparent resolution. As a friendly reminder, Pastor Andrew Brunson from North Carolina went before a TURKISH judge to enter his plea of not guilty to any wrongdoing although he currently faces up to 35 years in prison. In summary, Pastor Andrew Brunson was detained in the aftermath of the 2016 failed “Coup D’État” attempt in TURKEY for alleged links to the outlawed KURDISH PKK as well as the Fethullahist Terrorist Organization (FETO) led by U.S. based cleric Fethullah Gulen. Ironically, Pastor Andrew Brunson clearly stated that he does not accept any of the allegations or accusations as he did not engage in any illegal activities and did not have any relations with anyone engaged in such activities as a Christian pastor whose aims are different from both the KURDISH PKK and FETO. Thus, U.S. President Donald Trump has thrown his full support behind the release of Pastor Andrew Brunson culminating with U.S. President Donald Trump being unhappy with TURKEY’s decision not to release him, resulting in sanctions being recently imposed. However, TURKEY’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues to ignore the U.S. request although the TURKISH Lira has dropped steadily since the U.S. ordered tariffs on TURKEY in retaliation for the detention of Pastor Andrew Brunson.
As a friendly reminder, in an unusual show of solidarity with IRAN, Turkish President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan told his IRANIAN counterpart Hassan Rouhani that he found the U.S. decision to withdraw from a 2015 nuclear deal with IRAN to be wrong. In a telephone call, TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan told IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani that TURKEY wanted the deal to be maintained, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would pull out from the deal. Meanwhile, this week, ISRAEL and TURKEY relations appeared to be soured as TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated his resolve to advance the interests of TURKEY with the MUSLIM world including IRAN and the PALESTINIANS. Therefore, ISRAEL and TURKEY once again appear to be on a collision course that is not GAZA or the peace process with the PALESTINIANS but rather ISRAEL and TURKEY relations appeared to be soured after TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blasted the new ISRAELI nation state law as embodying the spirit of Hitler. Not surprisingly, as ISRAELI and TURKISH relations are strained, so too are the relations between TURKEY and the west, as the U.S. has just recently placed two TURKISH ministers on the U.S. Global Magnitsky list.
Therefore, it is not surprising that TURKEY’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with RUSSIAN and IRANIAN leaders in IRAN this week to discuss developments in SYRIA and how to deal with radical ISLAMIC groups who still control the last major opposition holdouts in SYRIA. It is important to note that RUSSIAN bases in SYRIA are coming under increased attacks from AL-QAEDA linked ISLAMIC groups in the northwestern province of IDLIB as SYRIAN forces, backed by RUSSIA and IRAN, close in on the last major opposition controlled region of SYRIA. However, TURKEY continues to warn the SYRIAN regime, RUSSIA and IRAN that an all-out military offensive on IDLIB could lead to a disastrous outcome for TURKEY by triggering a new wave of refugees heading towards the TURKISH borders. Thus, the world has been bracing for weeks for the Bashar al-Assad Syrian Arab Army (SAA) to attack IDLIB, where around 2.5 million civilians are living in opposition-held territory with no clear escape routes if fighting escalates. It is important to note that SAA forces along with the RUSSIAN air force shelled opposition-held territories this week with a barrage of airstrikes where at least 15 civilians were killed. Hence, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan clearly stated that he hopes to reach a deal and prevent an all-out attack on IDLIB, as TURKEY is worried that an attack on IDLIB will trigger a mass exodus of refugees fleeing towards the TURKISH border.
IRAQ News
As a friendly reminder, IRAQI Kurdish authorities stated that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession. However, the KURDS also stated that this decision must become a basis for starting an inclusive national dialogue between KURDISTAN and IRAQ to resolve all disputes through implementation of all constitutional articles and in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution because all elements of the IRAQI Constitution must be respected in order to secure the unity of IRAQ. Subsequently, the only thing that appears certain after the May 12, 2018 election is that the voters have rejected both IRAN and the U.S. consisting of the two outside powers that have dominated IRAQI internal affairs since 2003 such that the election of a coalition headed by the populist SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr is a sign that a growing number of IRAQIS are eager to reassert their identity and independence. Thus, all the IRAQI election did was establish a framework for the real political negotiations that are currently ongoing and will likely take months to complete.
However, there are two obvious potential outcomes from IRAQI political party negotiations with substantial regional and international consequences. That is, the first potential outcome is a coalition headed by Moqtada al-Sadr that probably means a diminishing U.S. presence in IRAQ combined with an IRAQI government that is independent of IRAN’s influence while reintegrating an independent and sovereign IRAQ into the Arab world. Conversely, the second potential outcome is a coalition headed by the pro-IRANIAN Fatah Alliance representing the SHIITE militias along with parties loyal to former Prime Ministers Haider al-Abadi and Nouri al-Maliki as well as smaller groups such as the Kurdistan Coalition that would result in an overtly pro-IRANIAN government. Nonetheless, IRAQ’s parliament ordered a full recount of IRAQ’s recent parliamentary election that resulted in a shock victory for SHIA leader Muqtada al-Sadr. Furthermore, in spite of dramatic differences, the three parties that gained the most votes in IRAQ’s May 12, 2018 parliamentary elections agreed to work together to form a new IRAQI government. Ironically, the driving force behind this odd alliance is SHIA cleric Muqtada al-Sadr who seems to be ready, willing and able to work with Hadi al-Amiri, head of the most powerful IRAN-backed SHIA militia and outgoing president Haidar al-Abadi, the U.S. choice to head the new IRAQI government.
Meanwhile this week, uncertainty appeared to be looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, while the election results still hang in the backdrop without any conclusive outcome other that the likelihood of a coalition government amongst the three major political players as discussed above. Further complicating the situation in IRAQ is the U.S. re-imposing sanctions against IRAN as IRAQ finds itself caught in the crossfire between its key allies of IRAN and the U.S. such that IRAQ’s economy could suffer the worst economic collateral damage from the U.S. sanctions on IRAN. Ironically, as soon as the most recent round of U.S. sanctions hit IRAN, current IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al Abadi stated that IRAQ would reluctantly comply but one week later, reality hit IRAQ whereby many IRAQIS are pushing the IRAQI government to maintain trade relations with IRAN. Thus, IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al Abadi had no choice but to formally request that the U.S. provide certain exemptions to IRAQ on specific critical IRANIAN goods with an IRAQI delegation set to travel to Washington as soon as the U.S. counterparts are ready to meet. Nonetheless, deadly protests raged in IRAQ this week over the lack of basic services and government corruption as IRAQI security forces were bracing for a new round of violent protests after IRAQI security forces killed six demonstrators during violent marches in BASRA. It is important to note that the rise in violence has resulted in more solidarity protests throughout IRAQ as activists look to create momentum in their protests against intermittent electricity availabilities, undrinkable water, unemployment and frustrations with a political system that has failed to form a new IRAQI government nearly four months after the IRAQI national elections were held.
In regards to ISIS trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, it is important to note that although IRAQI security forces have announced military campaigns to flush out the last remaining ISIS fighters from the sparsely populated areas of IRAQ such as AL-QAIM, ISIS continues to mount successful sporadic attacks. Thus, IRAQI security forces struggle to control the vast desert that borders with SYRIA on either side of the Euphrates valley that has been one of ISIS main hideouts. Hence, home to approximately 150,000 people, the town of AL-QAIM is notorious for being a crossing point for weapons and money used to fuel ISIS’s remaining operations in IRAQ. Thus, after almost one year of silence, ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi released a 55 minute-long audio message admitting that ISIS had been conquered but telling ISIS followers to keep fighting. Although ISIS still represents a credible threat in IRAQ, ISIS is a shadow of the once-powerful army that rolled through IRAQ and SYRIA back in 2014 with a savage method of operation consisting of stealing, killing, raping and plundering vast areas of land in both countries to now having lost around 98% of the so-called ISIS caliphate.
SYRIA News
As a friendly reminder, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN allies continued to focus their attention on the southern province of DERAA where they have intensified their bombing campaign after a ceasefire deal between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels and the Russians broke down. Meanwhile, SAA government forces stated that they have retaken a town that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war that engulfed SYRIA for over seven years now as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war. It is important to note that the SAA along with their RUSSIAN allies are now focusing their attention on IDLIB where they have vowed to wipe out all terrorists. It is important to note that the SAA and RUSSIA have signalled that an all-out offensive to retake the last rebel-held province in SYRIA consisting of IDLIB is only a matter of time. Therefore, the SAA and RUSSIA have triggered rising fears over a major humanitarian crisis as it has become evident that IDLIB will be subject to an intense bombing campaign.
It is important to note that IDLIB is home to nearly three million people, consisting of around half of whom are rebels and civilians transferred from other areas such as ALEPPO, EASTERN GHOUTA and DERAA after they fell to SAA forces following heavy fighting. Furthermore, the situation on the ground is further complicated by the direct presence of TURKEY, which backs certain rebel groups in the area and operates as a guarantor country to ensure the de-escalation zone agreed upon with Russia is respected. However, in recent weeks, TURKISH backed opposition groups in IDLIB have attempted to unify into a new coalition, with some 70,000 fighters pledging to fight against SAA forces but the terrorist group, Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the most dominant rebel force in IDLIB in control of about 60% of the province, has not joined the coalition. Thus, at this juncture, the only remaining hope is for a deal to be reached to prevent an all-out attack on IDLIB as the world is worried that an attack on IDLIB will trigger a mass exodus of refugees fleeing towards the TURKISH border.
Meanwhile, the tensions between IRAN and ISRAEL seem to have continued to escalate again after ISRAELI airstrikes targeted IRANIAN military infrastructure inside SYRIA several weeks ago. Obviously, IRAN condemned the wave of ISRAELI air strikes in SYRIA and clearly stated that these attacks by ISRAEL represent a blatant violation of SYRIA’s sovereignty such that IRAN has backed SYRIA’s right to defend itself against ISRAEL. It is important to note that the strikes were the heaviest strikes carried out by ISRAEL on SYRIA in decades that came right after twenty rockets were fired at ISRAELI military positions in the occupied Golan Heights of SYRIA. It is no secret that the strikes hurt IRAN that has deployed hundreds of troops inside SYRIA as military advisers to the SYRIAN governments Syrian Arab Army (SAA) while thousands of IRANIAN militia armed, trained and financed by IRAN have also been battling SYRIAN rebel forces alongside the SAA. ISRAEL stated that ISRAELI fighter jets struck almost IRAN’s entire military infrastructure inside Syria consisting of some 70 targets in ISRAELS biggest assault since SYRIA’s civil war commenced in 2011.
Subsequently, this week, the tone escalated between ISRAEL and IRAN, as ISRAEL continues to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to be adamant that the IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, the recent announcement by RUSSIA that IRANIAN forces pulled back from the Golan Heights seemed to be a step in the right direction. However, this week tensions seemed to have risen once again as IRANIAN’s were fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency which has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. The new sanctions target IRANIAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN’s auto sector although the toughest sanctions targeting oil exports will not take effect for another four months. However, IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani clearly stated that IRAN would not let the enemy bring IRAN to its knees such that if the enemy thinks they will defeat IRAN, they will take their hope to the grave with them.
Hence, ISRAEL signalled this week that the lull in SYRIAN air strikes was over as ISRAEL resumed military action against IRAN, with airstrikes in SYRIA attributed to ISRAEL, along with threats made by ISRAEL that they would respond to any perceived danger from IRAN accordingly, even if it means deviating from deals made between ISRAEL and RUSSIA. Thus, ISRAEL shattered SYRIAN air space with explosions on a weapon storehouse in the capital of DAMASCUS, except that unlike previous strikes in SYRIA, no SYRIAN anti-aircraft fire seems to have been returned by either planes or missiles. Nonetheless, an attack on a convey of IRANIAN paramilitary forces along with SHIITE militias, bombed near the U.S. base near the enclave of AL-TANF that left around ten people killed, clearly seems to be attributable to ISRAELI forces. It appears that ISRAEL is not entirely happy with the arrangement with RUSSIA to keep IRANIAN forces in SYRIA away from ISRAEL’s border, as although RUSSIA seems to have kept its promise to move the IRANIANS 85 kilometers from the border with ISRAEL in the Golan Heights, this arrangement does not cover the capital of Damascus, SYRIA.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
This week’s focus in TURKEY seemed to shift to the TURKISH struggling economy, largely attributable to a lack of confidence by foreign investors, due largely to TURKEY’s repressive crackdown measures on all opposition movements. In my opinion, over the last two years, TURKEY has been radically transformed with emergency measures used to consolidate authoritarian powers, silence opposition voices and take away basic human rights and civil liberties. However, the behaviours of TURKEY’s governing AKP seem to be taking their toll on the TURKISH economy as turbulent politics have resulted in economic turmoil whereby the sliding TURKISH Lira has set-off alarm bells across TURKEY as businesses struggle to cope with the financial impacts of a declining TURKISH Lira. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blaming the rest of the world for waging an economic war against TURKEY while most reputable economists would tend to agree that the TURKISH government has forced their central banks to follow counterproductive, if not destructive, economic policies is a sure sign that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is living in a delusional reality.
In my opinion, the underlying problem is that TURKISH banks and companies borrowed a lot of U.S. dollars, as TURKISH foreign currency debt represents about 30% of TURKEY’s GDP, such that TURKEY is now struggling to pay down the debt as the TURKISH Lira is falling. In my opinion, TURKEY’s economy is struggling in large part due to the TURKISH Lira losing almost 40% of its value against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year. In my opinion, there are a slew of reasons dissuading investors from TURKEY, but at the end of the day, many investors continue to try to liquidate their TURKISH Lira given that it has been dropping fast since the beginning of the year. Thus, the solution from my point-of-view is quite obvious, that TURKEY needs to raise interest rates in order to counter its problems of high inflation and a declining TURKISH Lira, while its economy should be able to bear the brunt of higher interest rates, without significant drops in current production levels. Nonetheless, Berat Albayrak, TURKEY’s finance minister stated that TURKEY does not foresee a big risk on the TURKISH economy and banking system as the TURKISH economy has strong fundamentals.
In my opinion, Berat Albayrak sounds like President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which is not surprising as he is his son-in-law such that Berat Albayrak seems to be significantly influenced by the President and seems to be extremely reluctant to go against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s firm belief in the need to maintain interest rates stable at around 17%. However, in my opinion, TURKEY faces the risk of a rapid slowdown in the TURKISH economy that could potentially culminate in a difficult recession unless TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, takes urgent steps to rebalance the TURKISH economy while bolstering investor confidence. Thus, in my opinion, investors are scared by soaring inflation, widening operating deficits and a declining TURKISH Lira that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could immediately stabilize by releasing Andrew Brunson, an evangelical pastor jailed after the failed “Coup D’État”. That is, U.S. President Donald Trump doubled tariffs on U.S. imports of TURKISH steel and aluminum in an attempt to force TURKEY to release Pastor Andrew Brunson, which seems to represent a relatively quick economic fix albeit the debate of principal over the application of justice regarding the admission of circumstantial evidence according to international laws and regulations.
Thus, it seems that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be forced to turn to the E.U., although TURKEY’s bid for E.U. membership has all but expired, as TURKEY will seem to be forced to return to GERMANY to finance TURKISH short-tern needs. However, in my opinion, any E.U. aid is unlikely to be enough while the pledge by QATAR to invest $ 15 billion during the upcoming year seems to have had very little favourable impact on the TURKISH Lira. In my opinion, as inflation rates rise, the TURKISH central bank will be forced to raise interest rates shortly to halt the TURKISH Lira’s free-fall, albeit any interest rate hike may be too little and too late. Thus, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s belief that interest rates are the mother and father of all evil, as a cause of inflation, will now likely result in TURKEY being forced to go to the IMF for bail-out financing although TURKEY continues to rule out this option on the basis that IMF financing represents an unacceptable surrender of TURKISH sovereignty.
In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump once again showed a strong backbone by making good on his warnings to TURKEY that there would be punitive consequences if TURKEY does not reverse the charges or acquits Pastor Andrew Brunson on all accusations of espionage and aiding of terrorist groups. In my opinion, President Donald Trump’s assessment is accurate that Pastor Andrew Brunson is a fine gentleman and Christian leader who is being persecuted in TURKEY for no reason whereby TURKEY calls Pastor Andrew Brunson a Spy although there is no substantive evidence such that Pastor Andrew Brunson should be allowed to return home to his beautiful family where he belongs.
Thus, in my opinion, it is surprising that TURKEY actually seems to believe that what is deemed circumstantial evidence in international courts of law, and is generally ignored, is adequate for TURKEY to formally lay charges, prosecute and incarcerate accordingly. Unfortunately, TURKEY’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues to ignore the U.S. request although the TURKISH Lira has dropped steadily since the U.S. ordered tariffs on TURKEY in retaliation for the detention of Pastor Andrew Brunson. Furthermore, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated this week that TURKEY followed the rule of law, such that the U.S. will not be able to make progress in this case by using threats, for that which TURKEY perceives as U.S. disregard for TURKISH legal processes.
As a friendly reminder, in an unusual show of solidarity with IRAN whereby Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his IRANIAN counterpart Hassan Rouhani that he found the U.S. decision to withdraw from a 2015 nuclear deal with IRAN to be wrong, I am not surprised as TURKEY recognizes that the deal was the product of more than a decade of diplomacy whereby the final nuclear agreement signed in July of 2015 by the U.S., France, Britain, Germany, Russia, China and Iran represents a milestone that the U.S. has unilaterally decided to withdraw from. Not surprisingly, among the few nations to welcome U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision were ISRAEL and SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN’s arch-nemesis in the Middle East. However, ISRAEL and TURKEY relations continued to appear to be soured this week after TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blasted the new ISRAELI nation state law as embodying the spirit of Hitler. In my opinion, the ISRAELI nation state law, which officially recognises ISRAEL as the home for Jewish people, obviously provoked anger amongst ARAB leaders, who expressed their concerns over the possibilities now for discrimination against ARAB citizens while accusing ISRAEL of trying to create an apartheid state.
In my opinion, it is not surprising to see that as ISRAELI and TURKISH relations are strained, so too are the relations between TURKEY and the west, as the U.S. has just recently placed two TURKISH ministers on the U.S. Global Magnitsky list that aims to target the worst bullies and thieves around the world. Hence, I was not surprised to see that TURKEY’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with RUSSIAN and IRANIAN leaders in IRAN this week to discuss developments in SYRIA and how to deal with radical ISLAMIC groups who still control the last major opposition holdouts in SYRIA. Furthermore, I was not surprised to see that TURKEY continues to warn the SYRIAN regime, RUSSIA and IRAN that an all-out military offensive on IDLIB could lead to a disastrous outcome for TURKEY by triggering a new wave of refugees heading towards the TURKISH borders. In my opinion, TURKEY has already sheltered 3.5 million SYRIANS such that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is under significant domestic pressure to not take in any more refugees. Therefore, in my opinion, RUSSIA’s worries about AL-QAEDA linked terrorist groups based in IDLIB are legitimate but a full-scale military attack is not the way to deal with this situation as it will certainly put the lives of all innocent civilians at risk and create a humanitarian crisis.
Hence, I was not surprised to see TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan floating alternatives for new strategic partnerships, as it is blatantly obvious that TURKEY and the U.S. have not been strategic partners for quite some time. In my opinion, the RUSSIANS represent a viable alternative for TURKEY because RUSSIA’s Gazprom is currently building natural gas pipelines in TURKEY albeit their historical rocky relationship. That is, the relationship between TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan and RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin has been on the rocks before when RUSSIA blamed TURKEY for helping to fund ISIS in SYRIA by buying cheap oil that ISIS stole while TURKEY shot down a RUSSIAN plane killing its pilot. In regards to increasing TURKISH strategic partnerships with the E.U., TURKEY is already a low cost, weak currency, manufacturing center for industrial Europe such that the European Central Bank might be forced to conduct operations that essentially increase the value of the TURKISH Lira. In regards to CHINA stepping-in as CHINA is interested in committing TURKEY into CHINA’s Belt and Road initiative at a very strategic geographic point on the Eurasian landmass, TURKEY owns commercial real estate, steel and energy assets that could interest CHINA except that CHINA is known for demanding discounted prices for bail-out financing. In regards to QATAR who already reacted last week by pledging to invest $ 15 billion in TURKISH financial markets and banks, I believe that QATAR will emerge as TURKEY’s preferred new strategic partner due to the close ties TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan maintains with the emir of QATAR, Tamim bin Hamad al Thani. Furthermore, TURKEY maintains troops in QATAR as a defense against Saudi Arabia such that QATAR is most likely to provide financial support to TURKEY.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
As a friendly reminder, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. Thus, it is certain that the IRAQI political structure remains complicated with the biggest number of parliamentary seats of 54 won by the coalition headed by the populist SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, a coalition of pro-IRANIAN Shiite parties finishing second with 47 seats while the block led by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, the U.S. favourite, finishing closely with 42 seats.
In my opinion, either a coalition under Moqtada al-Sadr will emerge or a pro-IRANIAN coalition under the Fatah Alliance will emerge such that either way, it seems that the U.S. presence in IRAQ will likely diminish over time. In my opinion, many Americans still remember Moqtada al-Sadr from the post-invasion period of IRAQI history when he commanded a militia that attacked U.S. forces and committed atrocities against the SUNNI population. Ironically, Moqtada al-Sadr never reconciled with the U.S. while contemporaneously having a bitter falling out with IRAN. However, in my opinion, Moqtada al-Sadr seems to now be repositioning IRAQ for closer relations with SAUDI ARABIA that once wrote-off IRAQ as a victory for IRAN while now once again, the SAUDI Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, seems to be courting IRAQI’s SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. In my opinion, last weeks ordering by IRAQ’s parliament of a full recount of IRAQ’s recent parliamentary election that resulted in a shock victory for SHIA leader Muqtada al-Sadr is not surprising as nobody ever expected him to win.
In regards to this weeks uncertainty looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, while the election results still hang in the backdrop without any conclusive outcome other that the likelihood of a coalition government amongst the three major political players as discussed above, it is obvious that IRAQ now finds itself once again with a weak government at the moment when IRAQ needs to be as strong as possible to cope with the potential for an ISIS re-emergence. In my opinion, poor governance, lack of public infrastructure and high levels of corruption, particularly in poor SUNNI areas, is helping to fuel ISIS’s objectives of a comeback after its crushing defeat. Unfortunately for IRAQ, the U.S. sanctions on IRAN seem to be arriving at the worst possible time, as the embargo on its IRANIAN neighbour could hit jobs in IRAQ and cut off a crucial source of relatively cheap imports into IRAQ.
In my opinion, with 80% of the products on the market in IRAQ being IRANIAN made, if the border closes, it will be an economic crisis for IRAQ. Thus, I was not surprised to see many IRAQIS pushing the IRAQI government to maintain trade relations with IRAN because IRAQ, which shares around 1,450 kilometers of border with IRAN, will be badly hurt by the IRANIAN sanctions. In my opinion, Iraq relies on IRAN for gas supplies, electricity, water and food such that the U.S. has placed IRAQ in a loser position as by attempting to cut-off the head of IRAN, the U.S. cut-off the waist of IRAQ such that although IRAN suffers most without its head, IRAQ is unable to reproduce without its waist. In my opinion, IRAQ will certainly experience shortages of key products if IRAQ complies with all of the U.S. sanctions that could lead to political turmoil at a critical crossroads period in IRAQI politics. Therefore, I was not surprised to see Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi clearly state that IRAQ has presented the U.S. with a framework from which the IRAQI delegation will go to the U.S. to negotiate with a clear vision of what IRAQ really needs which includes IRANIAN natural gas, electricity and other critical trade related products that fuel the IRAQI economy.
Nonetheless, I was not surprised to see the deadly protests raging in IRAQ this week over the lack of basic services and government corruption as IRAQI security forces were bracing for a new round of violent protests after IRAQI security forces killed six demonstrators during violent marches in BASRA. In my opinion, intermittent electricity availabilities, undrinkable water, unemployment and frustrations with a political system that has failed to form a new IRAQI government will certainly result in more IRAQI protests. In my opinion, it is easy to ask IRAQI security forces to protect and facilitate peaceful demonstrations while urging protesters to refrain from provoking authorities and damaging government property. However, when emotions take over an angry and frustrated IRAQI populace with stones and Molotov cocktails being hurled at local IRAQI government buildings and IRAQI security forces, warning shots and tear gas from IRAQI security forces are inevitable which can quickly escalate into deadly protests and civil unrest.
In regards to ISIS trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, ISIS has managed to send the message that ISIS could still successfully strike at any time or place in IRAQ regardless of existing security measures in place. Furthermore, in my opinion, the alleged new audio message released of ISIS leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, calling on his followers to not give up the jihad against their enemy is most probably fuelling continued bloody attacks. Thus, in my opinion, ISIS still represents a significant risk, with around 2,000 ISIS fighters still active in Iraq combined with an ISIS leader that was thought to have been killed several times, but continuing to resurface to fuel attacks, albeit the U.S. offering a $ 25-million reward for information leading to his capture or death. In my opinion, ISIS has been weakened and discredited by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s absence, as he has not been heard from in the last 11 months and he has not been seen in public for almost three years, so that is definitely not the sign of a strong leader. Thus, in my opinion, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s appearance now seems to be out of urgency to stop the ISIS organization from completely exploding as there seems to be a lot of ISIS infighting right now who seem to be starving while being low on supplies, weapons and water. In my opinion, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is hoping to take advantage of the volatile nature of security in the Euphrates river valley by trying to encourage ISIS members to create an insurgency. Thus, in my opinion, if Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is able to organize a legitimate insurgency, it could be problematic because the effort to stabilize the area that ISIS has been ousted from is not yet complete.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN ally recently focused their attention on the southern province of DERAA where they have intensified their bombing campaign after a ceasefire deal between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels and the Russians broke down. I was not surprised to see the intensification of air raids as SYRIAN troops have vowed to advance steadily to recapture lost territory until such time as a ceasefire agreement is negotiated. Thus, I was not surprised when SAA government forces retook a town that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war.
Thus, in my opinion, the shift now in focus of the SAA campaign to IDLIB is expected, as it is unacceptable that terrorists, particularly the AL-NUSRA FRONT, are using the de-escalation area of IDLIB to attack the SYRIAN army and to also attack the RUSSIAN military bases in the area by utilizing drones. However, in my opinion, TURKISH backed opposition groups in IDLIB that have attempted to unify into a new coalition, with some 70,000 fighters pledging to fight against SAA forces without the terrorist group, Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the most dominant rebel force in IDLIB in control of about 60% of the province, will not be able to indefinitely withstand the impending SAA and RUSSIAN military onslaught. Furthermore, in my opinion, a major military operation in IDLIB could pose a particularly threatening humanitarian crisis because there is no opposition held territory remaining in SYRIA, where people could be evacuated to, such that as many as 2.5 million SYRIANS could try to flee to the closed TURKISH border, creating a new refugee crisis of catastrophic proportions. Hence, in my opinion, although RUSSIA’s worries about AL-QAEDA linked terrorist groups based in IDLIB are legitimate, a full-scale military attack is not the way to deal with this situation as it will certainly put the lives of all innocent civilians at risk and create a humanitarian crisis.
Meanwhile, in regards to this week’s escalation of tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN, I am not surprised to see ISRAEL continuing to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. In my opinion, ISRAEL will not back down from its position that IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, last week’s announcement by RUSSIA that IRANIAN forces have pulled back from the Golan Heights should be welcomed as a positive development although ISRAEL clearly stated that such a pull back is insufficient with no compromises or concessions from ISRAEL’s position of a complete withdrawal being necessary. In my opinion, this week tensions have obviously risen once again since IRANIAN’s were fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency which has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. The new sanctions that target IRANIAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN’s auto sector that took effect seem to reflect the U.S. belief that IRAN will eventually surrender via the pressure tactics of sanctions. However, in my opinion IRAN’s pride runs through the veins of a majority of IRANIANS who would prefer to eat sand and drink sewage water before conceding to U.S. pressure tactics via sanctions.
Hence, I was not surprised to see ISRAEL signal this week that the lull in SYRIAN air strikes was over as ISRAEL resumed military action against IRAN, with airstrikes in SYRIA attributed to ISRAEL, along with threats made by ISRAEL that they would respond to any perceived danger from IRAN accordingly. However, I was surprised that the ISRAELI strike on a weapons storehouse in the capital of DAMASCUS did not receive any SYRIAN anti-aircraft fire. Furthermore, I was surprised at the response received from the SYRIAN regime that claimed that the explosion was attributable to an electrical short because over the past two years, SYRIA has admitted relatively openly to ISRAELI strikes even when ISRAEL itself tried to remain ambiguous. Thus, in my opinion, the IRANIAN forces seem to have been caught by ISRAEL with their pants down unprepared and were thus not in a position to launch any anti-aircraft fire, but chose to ignore the ISRAELI hit to safe face as big egos are at stake. However, the attack on a convey of IRANIAN paramilitary forces along with SHIITE militias, bombed near the U.S. base near the enclave of AL-TANF that left around ten people killed, clearly seems to be attributable to ISRAELI forces. That is, in my opinion, this road by which convoys bring fighters and weapons from IRAN and IRAQ to SYRIA and LEBANON, has all the trademarks of an ISRAELI strike as they have struck in this area before and know the region well enough to hit IRANIAN targets with such precision. In my opinion, this east to west land route that IRAN has been trying to strengthen over the past several years, is now drawing more ISRAELI attention as recent reports have surfaced that the IRANIANS transferred medium-range missiles to IRAQ via this route, apparently as an interim area of storage between IRAN and SYRIA. Thus, in my opinion, the recent strikes in SYRIA by ISRAEL seem to indicate that the brief ceasefire on the SYRIAN border is over, as ISRAEL seems to be going back to operations as usual whereby to the extent ISRAEL identifies an IRANIAN danger, ISRAEL reserves the right to deviate from its understandings with RUSSIA by exercising its right to respond accordingly with force.
In my opinion, the current situation in the Middle East depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War that would likely be triggered by a direct ISRAEL and IRAN conflict, such that all leaders across the globe must avoid the temptation to look away but rather should increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, minimize civilian casualties, prevent the further use of chemical weapons and alleviate the humanitarian crisis from a civil war spiralling out of control with no end in sight, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the Middle East. That being said, the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby the recent strikes in SYRIA by ISRAEL, seem to indicate that the brief ceasefire on the SYRIAN border is over, as ISRAEL seems to be going back to operations as usual whereby to the extent ISRAEL identifies an IRANIAN danger, ISRAEL reserves the right to deviate from its understandings with RUSSIA by exercising its right to respond accordingly with force, hence ISRAEL seems to be sending the message to IRAN that ISRAEL’s goal is to destroy any remaining IRANIAN military presence in SYRIA, even though IRAN has denied the allegations by ISRAEL, that IRAN plans to establish a permanent, broad military strangle hold in SYRIA, including advanced missile factories as well as air and naval bases, as ISRAEL seems to be psychologically traumatized by the idea of IRAN turning SYRIA into its outpost against ISRAEL, albeit the realities that with ISRAEL watching the IRANIANS closely with every move they make and every breath they take, IRAN is significantly limited in its abilities to manoeuvre freely in SYRIA, as ISRAEL seems to have successfully gotten into the IRANIANS heads with shock and awe attacks, combined with punitive sanctions traps, to the point that the IRANIANS in SYRIA appear to have become slightly handicapped.
In my opinion, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, although ISIS was literally disappearing from the face of the map in SYRIA, new showdowns between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) only serves to fuel the re-emergence of ISIS as a dangerous player in SYRIA. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS. Thus, in my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and utter madness.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 315” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby the recent strikes in SYRIA by ISRAEL, seem to indicate that the brief ceasefire on the SYRIAN border is over, as ISRAEL seems to be going back to operations as usual whereby to the extent ISRAEL identifies an IRANIAN danger, ISRAEL reserves the right to deviate from its understandings with RUSSIA, by exercising its right to respond accordingly with force, hence ISRAEL seems to be sending the message to IRAN that ISRAEL’s goal is to destroy any remaining IRANIAN military presence in SYRIA, even though IRAN has denied the allegations by ISRAEL, that IRAN plans to establish a permanent, broad military strangle hold in SYRIA, including advanced missile factories as well as air and naval bases, as ISRAEL seems to be psychologically traumatized by the idea of IRAN turning SYRIA into its outpost against ISRAEL, albeit the realities that with ISRAEL watching the IRANIANS closely with every move they make and every breath they take, IRAN is significantly limited in its abilities to manoeuvre freely in SYRIA, as ISRAEL seems to have successfully gotten into the IRANIANS heads with shock and awe attacks, combined with punitive sanctions traps, to the point that the IRANIANS in SYRIA appear to have become slightly handicapped.
http://www.therockswebmarket.com/world-peace-lennon-ivan-style-part-315
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