World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 314

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 314” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while focusing on the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby IRAN’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, branded ISRAELI Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, a warmonger following ISRAEL’s warning that any country, including IRAN, calling for the Jewish state’s destruction could suffer the same fate, while IRAN referred to ISRAEL’s statements as beyond shameless in gall, as a warmonger standing next to an actual nuclear weapons factory in ISRAEL, threatens IRAN with atomic annihilation, while IRAN does not have any nuclear weapons, such that although IRANIANS are a theocracy and pursue extreme objectives including the desire to destroy ISRAEL, the IRANIANS are very calculated, rationale and patient such that they would never risk self-annihilation for a quick hit on ISRAEL, as it has become evident that in the MIDDLE EAST, like elsewhere in the world, there is no more place for the weak who collapse, get destroyed or are completely wiped out from history, while the strong whether good or evil, are the ones who tend to survive, as the strong are the ones who are respected, who form alliances and eventually with whom deals are negotiated, hence ISRAEL, IRAN, SYRIA and HEZBOLLAH are all here to stay, such that the battlefield of the MIDDLE EAST is like a giant chess board, where for every action there is an equal and opposing reaction, such that the only viable method of operation is day to day, depending upon how the opposition chooses to play.

TURKEY News

During the week ending on Sunday, September 2, 2018, the focus in TURKEY seemed to shift to the TURKISH struggling economy, largely attributable to a lack of confidence by foreign investors, due largely to TURKEY’s repressive crackdown measures on all opposition movements. It is important to note that, three weeks ago, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan allowed TURKEY’s two-year state of emergency to come to an end but as trials of dissidents and journalists continue, human rights campaigners continue to pressure TURKEY to do more to reverse a suffocating crackdown on free speech. Critics claim that the state of emergency, in place since the failed “Coup D’État” in July of 2016 that killed 250 people and wounded 1,400, has been used to detain opponents of the governing AKP for lengthy periods of time without trial to intimidate dissidents and to prosecute media outlets. That is, more than 120,000 people in the police, military, academia, media and civil service have been detained or dismissed from their jobs over their alleged links to Fethullah Gulen who is the exiled TURKISH preacher based now in the U.S. who TURKEY blames as the brains behind the operations for the failed “Coup D’État”.

However, the behaviours of TURKEY’s governing AKP seem to be taking their toll on the TURKISH economy as turbulent politics have resulted in economic turmoil whereby the sliding TURKISH Lira has set-off alarm bells across TURKEY as businesses struggle to cope with the financial impacts of a declining TURKISH Lira. It is important to note that the economic challenges TURKEY is facing deepened this week after the TURKISH Lira plunged over 5% in the last couple of weeks after the TURKISH central bank shocked the financial markets by keeping interest rates on hold. Ironically, TURKEY’s finance minister insisted that TURKEYS’s economy did not face any significant risks, despite the TURKISH Lira plunging to its lowest point after new economic data was released that points to the risk of a sharp economic slowdown in TURKEY. However, the TURKISH Lira that has lost about 40% of its value against the U.S. dollar this year hit severe lows after TURKEY’s economic confidence index also hit extreme lows. It is important to note that U.S. rating agency Moody’s downgraded 20 TURKISH financial institutions due to increased risks of a sudden shift in investor sentiment that could leave TURKISH banks struggling to attract the foreign financing that keeps the TURKISH banking sector liquid. Nonetheless, Berat Albayrak, TURKEY’s finance minister stated that TURKEY does not foresee a big risk on the TURKISH economy and banking system as the TURKISH economy has strong fundamentals. Thus, TURKEY seems to prefer to put its TURKISH pride first by ignoring U.S. President Donald Trump’s request to free the detained American Pastor, Andrew Craig Brunson, which could quickly end TURKEY’s Lira weakening crisis due to the effects of U.S. imposed sanctions.

In regards to the U.S. demands to release American Pastor, Andrew Craig Brunson, who has been held for nearly two years in TURKEY in a case that has strained relations between the two countries, TURKISH officials met with U.S. officials for high level meetings in Washington a couple of weeks ago without an apparent resolution. As a friendly reminder, Pastor Andrew Brunson from North Carolina went before a TURKISH judge to enter his plea of not guilty to any wrongdoing although he currently faces up to 35 years in prison. In summary, Pastor Andrew Brunson was detained in the aftermath of the 2016 failed “Coup D’État” attempt in TURKEY for alleged links to the outlawed KURDISH PKK as well as the Fethullahist Terrorist Organization (FETO) led by U.S. based cleric Fethullah Gulen. Ironically, Pastor Andrew Brunson clearly stated that he does not accept any of the allegations or accusations as he did not engage in any illegal activities and did not have any relations with anyone engaged in such activities as a Christian pastor whose aims are different from both the KURDISH PKK and FETO. Thus, U.S. President Donald Trump has thrown his full support behind the release of Pastor Andrew Brunson culminating with U.S. President Donald Trump being unhappy with TURKEY’s decision not to release him, resulting in sanctions being recently imposed. However, TURKEY’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues to ignore the U.S. request although the TURKISH Lira has dropped steadily since the U.S. ordered tariffs on TURKEY in retaliation for the detention of Pastor Andrew Brunson.

As a friendly reminder, in an unusual show of solidarity with IRAN, Turkish President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan told his IRANIAN counterpart Hassan Rouhani that he found the U.S. decision to withdraw from a 2015 nuclear deal with IRAN to be wrong. In a telephone call, TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan told IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani that TURKEY wanted the deal to be maintained, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would pull out from the deal. Meanwhile, this week, ISRAEL and TURKEY relations appeared to be soured as TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated his resolve to advance the interests of TURKEY with the MUSLIM world including IRAN and the PALESTINIANS. Therefore, ISRAEL and TURKEY once again appear to be on a collision course that is not GAZA or the peace process with the PALESTINIANS but rather ISRAEL and TURKEY relations appeared to be soured after TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blasted the new ISRAELI nation state law as embodying the spirit of Hitler. Not surprisingly, as ISRAELI and TURKISH relations are strained, so too are the relations between TURKEY and the west, as the U.S. has just recently placed two TURKISH ministers on the U.S. Global Magnitsky list.

Therefore, it is not surprising that TURKEY’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet with RUSSIAN and IRANIAN leaders in IRAN next week to discuss developments in SYRIA and how to deal with radical ISLAMIC groups who still control the last major opposition holdouts in SYRIA. It is important to note that RUSSIAN bases in SYRIA are coming under increased attacks from AL-QAEDA linked ISLAMIC groups in the northwestern province of IDLIB as SYRIAN forces, backed by RUSSIA and IRAN, close in on the last major opposition controlled region of SYRIA. However, TURKEY continues to warn the SYRIAN regime, RUSSIA and IRAN that an all-out military offensive on IDLIB could lead to a disastrous outcome for TURKEY by triggering a new wave of refugees heading towards the TURKISH borders.

IRAQ News

As a friendly reminder, IRAQI Kurdish authorities stated that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession. However, the KURDS also stated that this decision must become a basis for starting an inclusive national dialogue between KURDISTAN and IRAQ to resolve all disputes through implementation of all constitutional articles and in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution because all elements of the IRAQI Constitution must be respected in order to secure the unity of IRAQ. Subsequently, the only thing that appears certain after the May 12, 2018 election is that the voters have rejected both IRAN and the U.S. consisting of the two outside powers that have dominated IRAQI internal affairs since 2003 such that the election of a coalition headed by the populist SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr is a sign that a growing number of IRAQIS are eager to reassert their identity and independence. Thus, all the IRAQI election did was establish a framework for the real political negotiations that are currently ongoing and will likely take months to complete.

However, there are two obvious potential outcomes from IRAQI political party negotiations with substantial regional and international consequences. That is, the first potential outcome is a coalition headed by Moqtada al-Sadr that probably means a diminishing U.S. presence in IRAQ combined with an IRAQI government that is independent of IRAN’s influence while reintegrating an independent and sovereign IRAQ into the Arab world. Conversely, the second potential outcome is a coalition headed by the pro-IRANIAN Fatah Alliance representing the SHIITE militias along with parties loyal to former Prime Ministers Haider al-Abadi and Nouri al-Maliki as well as smaller groups such as the Kurdistan Coalition that would result in an overtly pro-IRANIAN government. Nonetheless, IRAQ’s parliament ordered a full recount of IRAQ’s recent parliamentary election that resulted in a shock victory for SHIA leader Muqtada al-Sadr. Furthermore, in spite of dramatic differences, the three parties that gained the most votes in IRAQ’s May 12, 2018 parliamentary elections agreed to work together to form a new IRAQI government. Ironically, the driving force behind this odd alliance is SHIA cleric Muqtada al-Sadr who seems to be ready, willing and able to work with Hadi al-Amiri, head of the most powerful IRAN-backed SHIA militia and outgoing president Haidar al-Abadi, the U.S. choice to head the new IRAQI government.

Meanwhile this week, uncertainty appeared to be looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, while the election results still hang in the backdrop without any conclusive outcome other that the likelihood of a coalition government amongst the three major political players as discussed above. Further complicating the situation in IRAQ is the U.S. re-imposing sanctions against IRAN as IRAQ finds itself caught in the crossfire between its key allies of IRAN and the U.S. such that IRAQ’s economy could suffer the worst economic collateral damage from the U.S. sanctions on IRAN. Ironically, as soon as the most recent round of U.S. sanctions hit IRAN, current IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al Abadi stated that IRAQ would reluctantly comply but one week later, reality hit IRAQ whereby many IRAQIS are pushing the IRAQI government to maintain trade relations with IRAN. Thus, IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al Abadi had no choice but to formally request that the U.S. provide certain exemptions to IRAQ on specific critical IRANIAN goods. That is, IRAQ formally stated this week that a delegation would travel to Washington to ask for specific exemptions in applying the U.S. sanctions in IRAN as soon as the U.S. counterparts are ready to meet. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi clearly stated this week that IRAQ has specific requests for the U.S. side such that IRAQ has presented them within a framework from which the IRAQI delegation will go to the U.S. to negotiate. IRAQ further clarified that IRAQ has presented a clear vision of what IRAQ really needs which includes IRANIAN natural gas, electricity and other critical trade related products that fuel the IRAQI economy.

In regards to ISIS trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, a suicide car bomber killed at least 11 people and wounded more than a dozen others at a checkpoint in the town of AL-QAIM in the western province of ANBAR in IRAQ. ISIS formally claimed responsibilities for the attack hours after it took place via its AMAQ news agency. IRAQI police officials stated that 11 people, including five security personnel, were killed when an explosives laden car was driven into a checkpoint in the town such that following the incident IRAQI authorities announced a curfew in the area. It is important to note that although IRAQI security forces have announced military campaigns to flush out the last remaining ISIS fighters from the sparsely populated areas of IRAQ such as AL-QAIM, ISIS continues to mount successful sporadic attacks. Thus, IRAQI security forces struggle to control the vast desert that borders with SYRIA on either side of the Euphrates valley that has been one of ISIS main hideouts. Hence, home to approximately 150,000 people, the town of AL-QAIM is notorious for being a crossing point for weapons and money used to fuel ISIS’s remaining operations in IRAQ.

SYRIA News

As a friendly reminder, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN allies continued to focus their attention on the southern province of DERAA where they have intensified their bombing campaign after a ceasefire deal between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels and the Russians broke down. Meanwhile, SAA government forces stated that they have retaken a town that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war that engulfed SYRIA for over seven years now as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war. It is important to note that the SAA along with their RUSSIAN allies are now focusing their attention on IDLIB where they have vowed to wipe out all terrorists. It is important to note that the SAA and RUSSIA have signalled that an all-out offensive to retake the last rebel-held province in SYRIA consisting of IDLIB is only a matter of time. Therefore, the SAA and RUSSIA have triggered rising fears over a major humanitarian crisis as it has become evident that IDLIB will be subject to an intense bombing campaign. It is important to note that IDLIB is home to nearly three million people, consisting of around half of whom are rebels and civilians transferred from other areas such as ALEPPO, EASTERN GHOUTA and DERAA after they fell to SAA forces following heavy fighting. Furthermore, the situation on the ground is further complicated by the direct presence of TURKEY, which backs certain rebel groups in the area and operates as a guarantor country to ensure the de-escalation zone agreed upon with Russia is respected. However, in recent weeks, TURKISH backed opposition groups in IDLIB have attempted to unify into a new coalition, with some 70,000 fighters pledging to fight against SAA forces but the terrorist group, Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the most dominant rebel force in IDLIB in control of about 60% of the province, has not joined the coalition.

Meanwhile, the tensions between IRAN and ISRAEL seem to have continued to escalate again after ISRAELI airstrikes targeted IRANIAN military infrastructure inside SYRIA several weeks ago. Obviously, IRAN condemned the wave of ISRAELI air strikes in SYRIA and clearly stated that these attacks by ISRAEL represent a blatant violation of SYRIA’s sovereignty such that IRAN has backed SYRIA’s right to defend itself against ISRAEL. It is important to note that the strikes were the heaviest strikes carried out by ISRAEL on SYRIA in decades that came right after twenty rockets were fired at ISRAELI military positions in the occupied Golan Heights of SYRIA. It is no secret that the strikes hurt IRAN that has deployed hundreds of troops inside SYRIA as military advisers to the SYRIAN governments Syrian Arab Army (SAA) while thousands of IRANIAN militia armed, trained and financed by IRAN have also been battling SYRIAN rebel forces alongside the SAA. ISRAEL stated that ISRAELI fighter jets struck almost IRAN’s entire military infrastructure inside Syria consisting of some 70 targets in ISRAELS biggest assault since SYRIA’s civil war commenced in 2011.

Subsequently, this week, the tone escalated between ISRAEL and IRAN, as ISRAEL continues to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to be adamant that the IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, the recent announcement by RUSSIA that IRANIAN forces pulled back from the Golan Heights seemed to be a step in the right direction. However, this week tensions seemed to have risen once again as IRANIAN’s were fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency which has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. The new sanctions target IRANIAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN’s auto sector although the toughest sanctions targeting oil exports will not take effect for another four months. However, IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani clearly stated that IRAN would not let the enemy bring IRAN to its knees such that if the enemy thinks they will defeat IRAN, they will take their hope to the grave with them.

Hence, ISRAEL is now concerned that IRAN may once again consider the idea of going nuclear which could create a spiral effect of other countries, especially SUNNI rivals of IRAN in the MIDDLE EAST, working to develop nuclear weapons as well. However, ISRAEL with its air, water and land nuclear capabilities is unlikely to use nuclear force in any war against IRAN, HEZBOLLAH and HAMAS unless ISRAEL finds itself in an situation with a threat to its existence which is highly unlikely. Nonetheless, ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that ISRAEL would take strong and determined actions against any IRANIAN attempts to station forces and advanced weapons systems in SYRIA after IRAN and SYRIA reached a new accord on security cooperation. Ironically, ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clarified that no agreement between SYRIA and IRAN or threat from IRAN would deter ISRAEL during a ceremony naming ISRAEL’s nuclear facilities after late ISRAELI President, Shimon Peres. It is important to note that IRAN’s military attaché to SYRIA stated that IRANIAN military advisers would remain in SYRIA under a newly signed defence agreement with the focus on ensuring support for SYRIA’s territorial integrity and SYRIAN sovereignty. Thus, ISRAEL has tried to avoid direct involvement in the SYRIAN conflict but has acknowledged carrying out dozens of air attacks in Syria to stop what ISRAEL says are deliveries of advanced weaponry to ISRAEL’s enemy of HEZBOLLAH.

TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

This week’s focus in TURKEY seemed to shift to the TURKISH struggling economy, largely attributable to a lack of confidence by foreign investors, due largely to TURKEY’s repressive crackdown measures on all opposition movements. In my opinion, over the last two years, TURKEY has been radically transformed with emergency measures used to consolidate authoritarian powers, silence opposition voices and take away basic human rights and civil liberties. However, the behaviours of TURKEY’s governing AKP seem to be taking their toll on the TURKISH economy as turbulent politics have resulted in economic turmoil whereby the sliding TURKISH Lira has set-off alarm bells across TURKEY as businesses struggle to cope with the financial impacts of a declining TURKISH Lira. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blaming the rest of the world for waging an economic war against TURKEY while most reputable economists would tend to agree that the TURKISH government has forced their central banks to follow counterproductive, if not destructive, economic policies is a sure sign that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is living in a delusional reality.

In my opinion, the underlying problem is that TURKISH banks and companies borrowed a lot of U.S. dollars, as TURKISH foreign currency debt represents about 30% of TURKEY’s GDP, such that TURKEY is now struggling to pay down the debt as the TURKISH Lira is falling. In my opinion, TURKEY’s economy is struggling in large part due to the TURKISH Lira losing almost 40% of its value against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year. In my opinion, there are a slew of reasons dissuading investors from TURKEY, but at the end of the day, many investors continue to try to liquidate their TURKISH Lira given that it has been dropping fast since the beginning of the year. Thus, the solution from my point-of-view is quite obvious that TURKEY needs to raise interest rates in order to counter its problems of high inflation and a declining TURKISH Lira while its economy should be able to bear the brunt of higher interest rates without significant drops in current production levels. Nonetheless, Berat Albayrak, TURKEY’s finance minister stated that TURKEY does not foresee a big risk on the TURKISH economy and banking system as the TURKISH economy has strong fundamentals.

In my opinion, Berat Albayrak sounds like President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which is not surprising as he is his son-in-law such that Berat Albayrak seems to be significantly influenced by the President and seems to be extremely reluctant to go against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s firm belief in the need to maintain interest rates stable at around 17%. However, in my opinion, TURKEY faces the risk of a rapid slowdown in the TURKISH economy that could potentially culminate in a difficult recession unless TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, takes urgent steps to rebalance the TURKISH economy while bolstering investor confidence. Thus, in my opinion, the latest economic warning signs clearly show TURKEY heading in the direction of higher inflation rates, combined with more difficult financial conditions, due to a plunging TURKISH Lira that could quickly slowdown TURKISH economic growth, although the TURKISH finance minister does not foresee a big risk on the TURKISH economy and banking system. In my opinion, a quick fix that TURKEY has at its disposal is to respect U.S. President Donald Trump’s request to free the detained American Pastor, Andrew Craig Brunson, which could quickly end TURKEY’s Lira weakening crisis due to the effects of U.S. imposed sanctions while TURKEY outright refuses to do so out of TURKISH pride.

In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump once again showed a strong backbone by making good on his warnings to TURKEY that there would be punitive consequences if TURKEY does not reverse the charges or acquits Pastor Andrew Brunson on all accusations of espionage and aiding of terrorist groups. In my opinion, President Donald Trump’s assessment is accurate that Pastor Andrew Brunson is a fine gentleman and Christian leader who is being persecuted in TURKEY for no reason whereby TURKEY calls Pastor Andrew Brunson a Spy although there is no substantive evidence such that Pastor Andrew Brunson should be allowed to return home to his beautiful family where he belongs. Thus, in my opinion, it is surprising that TURKEY actually seems to believe that what is deemed circumstantial evidence in international courts of law, and is generally ignored, is adequate for TURKEY to formally lay charges, prosecute and incarcerate accordingly. Unfortunately, TURKEY’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues to ignore the U.S. request although the TURKISH Lira has dropped steadily since the U.S. ordered tariffs on TURKEY in retaliation for the detention of Pastor Andrew Brunson.

As a friendly reminder, in an unusual show of solidarity with IRAN whereby Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his IRANIAN counterpart Hassan Rouhani that he found the U.S. decision to withdraw from a 2015 nuclear deal with IRAN to be wrong, I am not surprised as TURKEY recognizes that the deal was the product of more than a decade of diplomacy whereby the final nuclear agreement signed in July of 2015 by the U.S., France, Britain, Germany, Russia, China and Iran represents a milestone that the U.S. has unilaterally decided to withdraw from. Not surprisingly, among the few nations to welcome U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision were ISRAEL and SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN’s arch-nemesis in the Middle East. However, ISRAEL and TURKEY relations continued to appear to be soured this week after TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blasted the new ISRAELI nation state law as embodying the spirit of Hitler. In my opinion, the ISRAELI nation state law, which officially recognises ISRAEL as the home for Jewish people, obviously provoked anger amongst ARAB leaders, who expressed their concerns over the possibilities now for discrimination against ARAB citizens while accusing ISRAEL of trying to create an apartheid state.

In my opinion, it is not surprising to see that as ISRAELI and TURKISH relations are strained, so too are the relations between TURKEY and the west, as the U.S. has just recently placed two TURKISH ministers on the U.S. Global Magnitsky list that aims to target the worst bullies and thieves around the world. Hence, I was not surprised to see that TURKEY’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet with RUSSIAN and IRANIAN leaders in IRAN next week to discuss developments in SYRIA and how to deal with radical ISLAMIC groups who still control the last major opposition holdouts in SYRIA. Furthermore, I was not surprised to see that TURKEY continues to warn the SYRIAN regime, RUSSIA and IRAN that an all-out military offensive on IDLIB could lead to a disastrous outcome for TURKEY by triggering a new wave of refugees heading towards the TURKISH borders. In my opinion, IDLIB, which is located near southern TURKEY, is currently subject to significant influence from TURKEY albeit the realities that a massive attack on IDLIB would in essence wipe out TURKISH influence on this last rebel held stronghold. However, given that IDLIB is currently held by AL-QAEDA linked ISLAMIC groups, there is the risk that SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad resorts to chemical weapons to destroy the last remnants of the SYRIAN radical opposition movements. Nonetheless, the U.S. has forewarned the SYRIAN regime that the U.S. will intervene militarily if President Bashar al-Assad uses chemical weapons to recapture IDLIB while Russia accuses the U.S. of looking for a pretext to attack the SYRIAN regime.

Hence, I was not surprised to see TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan floating alternatives for new strategic partnerships, as it is blatantly obvious that TURKEY and the U.S. have not been strategic partners for quite some time. In my opinion, the RUSSIANS represent a viable alternative for TURKEY because RUSSIA’s Gazprom is currently building natural gas pipelines in TURKEY albeit their historical rocky relationship. That is, the relationship between TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan and RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin has been on the rocks before when RUSSIA blamed TURKEY for helping to fund ISIS in SYRIA by buying cheap oil that ISIS stole while TURKEY shot down a RUSSIAN plane killing its pilot. In regards to increasing TURKISH strategic partnerships with the E.U., TURKEY is already a low cost, weak currency, manufacturing center for industrial Europe such that the European Central Bank might be forced to conduct operations that essentially increase the value of the TURKISH Lira. In regards to CHINA stepping-in as CHINA is interested in committing TURKEY into CHINA’s Belt and Road initiative at a very strategic geographic point on the Eurasian landmass, TURKEY owns commercial real estate, steel and energy assets that could interest CHINA except that CHINA is known for demanding discounted prices for bail-out financing. In regards to QATAR who already reacted last week by pledging to invest $ 15 billion in TURKISH financial markets and banks, I believe that QATAR will emerge as TURKEY’s preferred new strategic partner due to the close ties TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan maintains with the emir of QATAR, Tamim bin Hamad al Thani. Furthermore, TURKEY maintains troops in QATAR as a defense against Saudi Arabia such that QATAR is most likely to provide financial support to TURKEY.

IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

As a friendly reminder, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.

As a friendly reminder, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. Thus, it is certain that the IRAQI political structure remains complicated with the biggest number of parliamentary seats of 54 won by the coalition headed by the populist SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, a coalition of pro-IRANIAN Shiite parties finishing second with 47 seats while the block led by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, the U.S. favourite, finishing closely with 42 seats.

In my opinion, either a coalition under Moqtada al-Sadr will emerge or a pro-IRANIAN coalition under the Fatah Alliance will emerge such that either way, it seems that the U.S. presence in IRAQ will likely diminish over time. In my opinion, many Americans still remember Moqtada al-Sadr from the post-invasion period of IRAQI history when he commanded a militia that attacked U.S. forces and committed atrocities against the SUNNI population. Ironically, Moqtada al-Sadr never reconciled with the U.S. while contemporaneously having a bitter falling out with IRAN. However, in my opinion, Moqtada al-Sadr seems to now be repositioning IRAQ for closer relations with SAUDI ARABIA that once wrote-off IRAQ as a victory for IRAN while now once again, the SAUDI Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, seems to be courting IRAQI’s SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. In my opinion, last weeks ordering by IRAQ’s parliament of a full recount of IRAQ’s recent parliamentary election that resulted in a shock victory for SHIA leader Muqtada al-Sadr is not surprising as nobody ever expected him to win.

In regards to this weeks uncertainty looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, while the election results still hang in the backdrop without any conclusive outcome other that the likelihood of a coalition government amongst the three major political players as discussed above, it is obvious that IRAQ now finds itself once again with a weak government at the moment when IRAQ needs to be as strong as possible to cope with the potential for an ISIS re-emergence. In my opinion, poor governance, lack of public infrastructure and high levels of corruption, particularly in poor SUNNI areas, is helping to fuel ISIS’s objectives of a comeback after its crushing defeat. Unfortunately for IRAQ, the U.S. sanctions on IRAN seem to be arriving at the worst possible time, as the embargo on its IRANIAN neighbour could hit jobs in IRAQ and cut off a crucial source of relatively cheap imports into IRAQ.

In my opinion, with 80% of the products on the market in IRAQ being IRANIAN made, if the border closes, it will be an economic crisis for IRAQ. Thus, I was not surprised to see many IRAQIS pushing the IRAQI government to maintain trade relations with IRAN because IRAQ, which shares around 1,450 kilometers of border with IRAN, will be badly hurt by the IRANIAN sanctions. In my opinion, Iraq relies on IRAN for gas supplies, electricity, water and food such that the U.S. has placed IRAQ in a loser position as by attempting to cut-off the head of IRAN, the U.S. cut-off the waist of IRAQ such that although IRAN suffers most without its head, IRAQ is unable to reproduce without its waist. In my opinion, IRAQ will certainly experience shortages of key products if IRAQ complies with all of the U.S. sanctions that could lead to political turmoil at a critical crossroads period in IRAQI politics. Therefore, I was not surprised to see Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi clearly state this week that IRAQ has presented the U.S. with a framework from which the IRAQI delegation will go to the U.S. to negotiate with a clear vision of what IRAQ really needs which includes IRANIAN natural gas, electricity and other critical trade related products that fuel the IRAQI economy. However, in my opinion, the situation with the U.S. imposed sanctions is complicated because IRAQ cannot deal with one person but rather IRAQ must deal with several U.S. institutions that must be consulted but until then, the unilateral U.S. imposed sanctions are so oppressive on IRAQ that it will be extremely difficult for IRAQ to comply.

In regards to ISIS trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, the suicide car bomber that killed at least 11 people and wounded more than a dozen others at a checkpoint in the town of AL-QAIM in the western province of ANBAR in IRAQ is not surprising, as AL-QAIM, which lies some 340 kilometres from the IRAQI capital of Baghdad, was one of the last towns in IRAQ to be controlled by ISIS, although it was recaptured by IRAQI forces in November of 2017. In my opinion, ISIS was trying to send a message to the IRAQI government about how easily ISIS could carry out attacks on a strategic border such as AL-QAIM where foreign U.S. and French forces are stationed in the vicinity. Furthermore, ISIS did send the statement that ISIS could still successfully strike at any time or place in IRAQ regardless of existing security measures in place as the IRAQI checkpoint was being heavily guarded by both IRAQI army soldiers and IRAQI government-backed militiamen. Furthermore, in my opinion, the alleged new audio message released this week of ISIS leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, calling on his followers to not give up the jihad against their enemy most probably fuelled this bloody attack. Thus, in my opinion, ISIS still represents a significant risk, with around 2,000 ISIS fighters still active in Iraq combined with an ISIS leader that was thought to have been killed several times, but continuing to resurface to fuel attacks, albeit the U.S. offering a $ 25-million reward for information leading to his capture or death.

SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

As a friendly reminder, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN ally recently focused their attention on the southern province of DERAA where they have intensified their bombing campaign after a ceasefire deal between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels and the Russians broke down. I was not surprised to see the intensification of air raids as SYRIAN troops have vowed to advance steadily to recapture lost territory until such time as a ceasefire agreement is negotiated. Thus, I was not surprised when SAA government forces retook a town that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war. Thus, in my opinion, the shift now in focus of the SAA campaign to IDLIB is expected, as it is unacceptable that terrorists, particularly the AL-NUSRA FRONT, are using the de-escalation area of IDLIB to attack the SYRIAN army and to also attack the RUSSIAN military bases in the area by utilizing drones. However, in my opinion, TURKISH backed opposition groups in IDLIB that have attempted to unify into a new coalition, with some 70,000 fighters pledging to fight against SAA forces without the terrorist group, Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the most dominant rebel force in IDLIB in control of about 60% of the province, will not be able to indefinitely withstand the impending SAA and RUSSIAN military onslaught. Furthermore, in my opinion, a major military operation in IDLIB could pose a particularly threatening humanitarian crisis because there is no opposition held territory remaining in SYRIA, where people could be evacuated to, such that as many as 2.5 million SYRIANS could try to flee to the closed TURKISH border, creating a new refugee crisis of catastrophic proportions.

Meanwhile, in regards to this week’s escalation of tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN, I am not surprised to see ISRAEL continuing to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. In my opinion, ISRAEL will not back down from its position that IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, last week’s announcement by RUSSIA that IRANIAN forces have pulled back from the Golan Heights should be welcomed as a positive development although ISRAEL clearly stated that such a pull back is insufficient with no compromises or concessions from ISRAEL’s position of a complete withdrawal being necessary. In my opinion, this week tensions have obviously risen once again since IRANIAN’s were fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency which has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. The new sanctions that target IRANIAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN’s auto sector that took effect seem to reflect the U.S. belief that IRAN will eventually surrender via the pressure tactics of sanctions. However, in my opinion IRAN’s pride runs through the veins of a majority of IRANIANS who would prefer to eat sand and drink sewage water before conceding to U.S. pressure tactics via sanctions.

Hence, I was not surprised to see that ISRAEL is now concerned that IRAN may once again consider the idea of going nuclear which could create a spiral effect of other countries, especially SUNNI rivals of IRAN in the MIDDLE EAST, working to develop their own nuclear weapons as well. However, in my opinion, the fact that the entire world is already convinced that ISRAEL has an advanced nuclear capability from land, air and sea, should serve as a major deterrent from IRAN pursuing its own nuclear capabilities, as it would most likely serve little purpose for IRAN against the ISRAELI arsenal, other than symbolic in nature. Thus, although IRANIANS are a theocracy and pursue extreme objectives including the desire to destroy ISRAEL, in my opinion, the IRANIANS are very calculated, rationale and patient such that they would never risking self-annihilation for a quick nuclear hit on ISRAEL. In my opinion, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) will continue to act with full determination and strength against IRAN’s attempts to station forces and advanced weapons systems in Syria such that perpetual strikes by ISRAEL will continue as long as IRAN and HEZBOLLAH remain in SYRIA. Furthermore, in my opinion, the U.S. imposed sanctions will hurt IRAN economically which may result in reduced financing capabilities by IRAN of its presence in SYRIA as IRANIAN President, Hassan Rouhani, himself stated that many among the IRANIAN people have lost faith in IRAN’s future and strength due to the renewed U.S. imposed financial sanctions. Nonetheless, Iran’s foreign minister branded Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, a warmonger following the ISRAELI warning that any country, including IRAN, calling for the Jewish state’s destruction could suffer the same fate. Furthermore, Mohammad Javad Zarif referred to ISRAEL’s statements as beyond shameless in the gall, as a warmonger standing next to an actual nuclear weapons factory in ISRAEL threatens IRAN, a country without any nuclear weapons, with atomic annihilation.

In my opinion, the current situation in the Middle East depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War that would likely be triggered by a direct ISRAEL and IRAN conflict, such that all leaders across the globe must avoid the temptation to look away but rather should increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, minimize civilian casualties, prevent the further use of chemical weapons and alleviate the humanitarian crisis from a civil war spiralling out of control with no end in sight, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the Middle East. That being said, the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby in the MIDDLE EAST like elsewhere in the world, there is no more place for the weak who collapse, get destroyed or are completely wiped out from history, while the strong whether good or evil, are the ones who tend to survive, as the strong are the ones who are respected, who form alliances and eventually with whom deals are negotiated, hence ISRAEL, IRAN, SYRIA and HEZBOLLAH are all here to stay, such that the battlefield of the MIDDLE EAST is like a giant chess game, where for every action there is an equal and opposing reaction, such that IRAN’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, branded Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, a warmonger following the ISRAELI leader’s warning that any country, including IRAN, calling for the Jewish state’s destruction could suffer the same fate, while IRAN referred to ISRAEL’s statements as beyond shameless in the gall, as a warmonger standing next to an actual nuclear weapons factory in ISRAEL threatens IRAN with atomic annihilation, an IRANIAN country without any nuclear weapons, such that although IRANIANS are a theocracy and pursue extreme objectives including the desire to destroy ISRAEL, the IRANIANS are very calculated, rationale and patient such that they would never risk self-annihilation for a quick hit on ISRAEL.

In my opinion, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, although ISIS was literally disappearing from the face of the map in SYRIA, new showdowns between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) only serves to fuel the re-emergence of ISIS as a dangerous player in SYRIA. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS. Thus, in my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and utter madness.

Summary

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 314” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while focusing on the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby IRAN’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, branded ISRAELI Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, a warmonger following ISRAEL’s warning that any country, including IRAN, calling for the Jewish state’s destruction could suffer the same fate, while IRAN referred to ISRAEL’s statements as beyond shameless in gall, as a warmonger standing next to an actual nuclear weapons factory in ISRAEL, threatens IRAN with atomic annihilation, while IRAN does not have any nuclear weapons, such that although IRANIANS are a theocracy and pursue extreme objectives including the desire to destroy ISRAEL, the IRANIANS are very calculated, rationale and patient such that they would never risk self-annihilation for a quick hit on ISRAEL, as it has become evident that in the MIDDLE EAST, like elsewhere in the world, there is no more place for the weak who collapse, get destroyed or are completely wiped out from history, while the strong whether good or evil, are the ones who tend to survive, as the strong are the ones who are respected, who form alliances and eventually with whom deals are negotiated, hence ISRAEL, IRAN, SYRIA and HEZBOLLAH are all here to stay, such that the battlefield of the MIDDLE EAST is like a giant chess board, where for every action there is an equal and opposing reaction, such that the only viable method of operation is day to day, depending upon how the opposition chooses to play.

Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:

September 2, 2018