In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 268” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace as IRAQI KURDISH referendum resulted in YES win with 92.73% support from the turnout of 72% illustrating the new geopolitical realities whereby if you vote to separate without proper authorization from the federation, your lives will be made miserable with collective punishment inflicted on the mass for supporting the local bad ass who launched the referendum dash on the presumption that the jewel of KIRKUK would remain part of the future KURDISTAN which is critical to finance autonomy as one cannot eat dirt to survive but rather one needs oil to fuel the economy.
TURKEY News
During the week ending on Sunday, October 15, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants.
Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as the TURKISH Embassy stopped issuing visas to AMERICANS in an ongoing spat between TURKEY and the U.S. Therefore, U.S. citizens who do not already possess a visa for TURKEY are now banned from travelling to TURKEY on the basis that TURKEY claims that recent events have forced the TURKISH Government to reassess the commitment of the U.S. Government to the security of the TURKISH mission, facilities and personnel. Furthermore, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pushed the U.S. and TURKEY relationship from bad to worse when he claimed that SPIES had infiltrated U.S. missions in TURKEY and that TURKEY did not consider the U.S. ambassador to TURKEY, John Bass, to be a legitimate representative of the U.S. However, the root of the drift between TURKEY and the U.S. actually dates back to Christmas Day in 1991 when the Soviet Union disintegrated as without the common RUSSIA threat, there was not much to bind the U.S. and TURKEY together as the U.S. and TURKEY relationship was never based on friendship, trust or common values but rather it was based on a shared conflict with RUSSIA which has eroded over the years.
IRAQ News
Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and ALLIED forces have pushed ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces first liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety subsequent to ALLIANCE forces seizing complete control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS. It is important to note that IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS to the point of ISIS relinquishing control of MOSUL as the world watched the scenes of jubilation as IRAQI forces liberated the OLD MOSUL City from ISIS. However, with 40,000 plus dead in the battle to take back OLD MOSUL City from ISIS, the scale of civilian casualties reveals a massacre with many bodies still buried under the rubble and the level of human suffering immense. However, ISIS is far from eradicated in IRAQ as several strongholds still remain such that the final battles to push ISIS out of these places will be more complicated than the previous straightforward fights in places such as FALLUJAH and TIKRIT. Today, ISIS still controls two towns consisting of HAWIJA, south of KIRKUK and AL QAIM, west of ANBAR whereby each fight will have its own set of complicated political, military and foreign policy issues. In addition, many ISIS militias have taken to the hills and began to wage a classic rural guerrilla war, while some ISIS sleeper cells have also been activated at the border of Baghdad, the IRAQI capital. Thus, ISIS has now returned to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group as the Islamic State of IRAQ and SYRIA can no longer call itself a state as ISIS has lost all capacity to act as a state but rather ISIS now stands exposed as a GANGSTER sham.
On the heels of the IRAQI military victory in MOSUL, IRAQI forces have broken through ISIS’s defences inside the northern city of TAL AFAR and reached the city centre that represents a major gain in the battle for ISIS’s last urban stronghold in IRAQ as IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared victory over ISIS in the northern city of TAL AFAR and the entire province of NINEVEH. However, it is important to note that ISIS still continues to strike ALLIANCE forces whenever there is an opportunity available such that the IRAQI army continues to withstand the barrage of ISIS counter strikes as was demonstrated this week by U.S. and coalition military forces who continued to attack ISIS across several fronts in IRAQ. Namely, IRAQ’s Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi claims that the IRAQI military has retaken HAWIJA, the main town in one of the last two enclaves of ISIS in the country although a few villages east of the town of HAWIJA are believed to still be under ISIS control. In particular, IRAQI forces regained control of 10,850 square kilometers from ISIS in HAWIJA while the IRAQI forces backed by the U.S. led ALLIANCE forces continue advancing against ISIS. However, ISIS militants could very well be hiding in underground tunnels or remote regions of HAWIJA in order to attack the IRAQI forces once again. However, in order to limit ISIS capabilities to mount future offensives, it is important for the SHIA-dominated government of IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to reconcile the leaders of the SUNNI tribes, many of who supported ISIS because they did not believe they were properly represented in IRAQ while contemporaneously engaging with the KURDS who have played a key role in defeating ISIS.
Meanwhile, RUSSIA, the only major power that did not call on IRAQI’s KURDS to cancel the referendum on independence that was held on September 25 has swiftly become the top funder of KURDISH oil and gas deals with as much as $ 4 billion pledged in less than a year. However, the U.S., EUROPEAN countries, TURKEY and IRAN have all lined up to oppose the move by IRAQI’s KURDS to separate from IRAQ subsequent to the September 25 referendum on independence. However, the KURDS consider the September 25 referendum victory as the culmination of decades of struggle for a KURDISH state of their own although the IRAQI government has clearly stated that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. However, after the votes were tallied and the referendum passed with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, Iraq’s top SHIITE cleric out right rejected the outcome of KURDISTAN’s independence vote despite the overwhelming 92% voting in favour of separating from IRAQ. Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani stated that KURDS must return to the constitutional path arguing that it is in the best interests of all IRAQIS including the KURDS to go back to the constitutional path to solve the issues between the central IRAQI government and the KURDISH region’s government. IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi subsequently released a statement expressing his agreement with the position of Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in addition to stating that the IRAQI government considers KURDISTAN’s referendum as unconstitutional such that the IRAQI government has asked the KURDISH government to cancel its outcome in order to satisfy a precondition for talks on outstanding issues between the two governments. Meanwhile, this week IRAQI forces along with IRANIAN trained paramilitaries deployed heavy weaponry build up in KIRKUK, the jewel of the proposed future KURDISTAN state. IRAN also reduced water flow from the LOWER ZAB River into KURDISTAN as the IRAQI government ordered that mobile telephone networks should now be under the authority of the IRAQI federal authorities. The IRAQI government has also threatened to launch a lawsuit to prosecute IRAQI state employees in the KURDISTAN Region who voted in the September 25 referendum. In addition, IRAQ recently stated that they had requested both IRAN and TURKEY, via their embassies in IRAQ, to suspend all commercial border transactions and dealings with the KURDISTAN Region, especially those related to the export of oil although they have not yet effectively closed their border crossings with the KURDISTAN Region. As a friendly reminder, the salient point of disagreement stems from the IRAQI Federal Government deeming the referendum vote as unconstitutional while the KURDISH leadership reaffirms the referendums legitimacy on the basis that it was supported by the majority of the people living in the KURDISTAN Region and was justified on the basis that IRAQI officials have regularly violated over 55 articles of the IRAQI Constitution.
SYRIA News
Moving on to SYRIA, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire peace process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks. Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN regime carried out the chemical attacks. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week although TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA signed an agreement at the SYRIAN cease-fire talks in KAZAKHSTAN several weeks ago calling for the creation of four de-escalation zones in SYRIA that represent the latest attempt by all key players in the region to reduce the violence in SYRIA including the commitment by President Bashar al-Assad that the SYRIAN air force will halt flights over the designated areas in SYRIA. Unfortunately, the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt albeit Russia and the U.S. continuing to discuss the situation in round-the-clock mode anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control.
However, tensions seemed to de-escalate this week as the SYRIAN Army under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH focused their attention on ISIS in DEIR AL-ZOR while growing concerns mounted for civilians amid tense fighting. It is important to note that the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has made remarkable progress in the DEIR AL-ZOR region over the last four weeks liberating a significant portion of the province that was previously occupied by ISIS. Most recently, SAA units have made their way across several kilometers of territory south of the provincial capital of DEIR AL-ZOR putting them within striking distance of AL-MAYADEEN, ISIS’s new de facto capital in SYRIA. According to the latest SYRIAN military reports, the SAA is only 6 km away from AL-MAYADEEN marking the first time in years that the SYRIAN government forces have had any presence around this DEIR AL-ZOR area. However, in the first week of October alone, an estimated 95,000 men, women and children were reportedly displaced by fighting to 60 locations across surrounding SYRIAN territory. Furthermore, a UNICEF supported vaccine cold room in AL-MAYADEEN district with at least 140,000 doses of vaccines were destroyed including some planned for use in tackling vaccine preventable childhood diseases in the area. Nonetheless, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Russian Air Force regained control of HATLA AL-SHARQIYAH village, east of the Euphrates River, in the DEIR AL-ZOR Region whereby SYRIAN soldiers advanced through the village after engaging in a fierce battle with members of ISIS.
On a positive note, U.S. backed fighters have surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, have cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. Fighters of the U.S. backed, KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) continue to punch their way through ISIS lines in RAQQA city as KURDISH forces are literally shooting their way through the streets of RAQQA, concentrating fire on ISIS positions hidden in the urban ruin of RAQQA city while ISIS fights back hard. On a positive note, the SDF announced that they are continuing to advance into the center of RAQQA city where they have been thwarting car bombs and suicide attacks. Heavy clashes continue between the SDF and the ISIS militants in the surrounding areas of RAQQA that have reached their final stages with the opening by the SDF forces of a new front against ISIS on the northern edge of RAQQA. Meanwhile, the remaining ISIS terrorists in the north-eastern part of the city have demanded that the SDF provide ISIS a corridor to leave several districts that are still under ISIS’s control as the SDF negotiates with ISIS commanders over the evacuation of civilians from those areas simultaneously. However, only several districts are still under ISIS control that should be liberated in the short-term albeit the realities of ISIS desperation whereby ISIS primary military strategy has become hiding behind innocent civilians.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders.
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on having the TURKISH Embassy stop issuing visas to AMERICANS in an ongoing spat between TURKEY and the U.S. In my opinion, this ban by TURKEY is in direct response to a bigger spat between TURKEY and the U.S. whereby the U.S. announced earlier in the week that the U.S. was reducing VISA services at its diplomatic facilities in TURKEY for security reasons although it appears quite obvious that the U.S. move was triggered by after one of the U.S. employees being detained at the TURKISH consulate for alleged links to the movement of U.S. based Turkish cleric, Fethullah Gulen, that the TURKISH government accuses of masterminding last year’s failed “Coup D’État”. In my opinion, the charges seem over exaggerated, as it is highly unlikely that a U.S. consulate member would enter into espionage and attempt to overthrow the constitutional order and TURKISH government. However, in my opinion, TURKEY and the U.S. have now entered into bitch slapping games of you screw me and I will screw you until we are both black and blue completely bruised in need of paramedics to reduce inflamations from anal retentive constipations and irritations of rashes from constant bashes. In regards to TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claiming that SPIES had infiltrated U.S. missions in TURKEY and that TURKEY did not consider the U.S. ambassador to TURKEY, John Bass, to be a legitimate representative of the U.S., this is further evidence that trust, respect and loyalty between TURKEY and the U.S. have disintegrated from the Cold Ware peaks against RUSSIA as TURKEY and the U.S. no longer share neither values nor personal, financial and political interests. This situation perfectly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby to the extent personal, financial and political interests are not shared, it is acceptable to shit all over your oppositions heads without even having the courtesy to at least offer toilet paper to clean the residue stains but rather choose to enter into a smearing campaign. In my opinion, without a common opposition of RUSSIA, the U.S. and TURKEY actually have very little in common today as the world has changed significantly from Christmas of 1991 when the Soviet Union disintegrated. In my opinion, TURKEY, a NATO ally, now works more closely with IRAN and RUSSIA whose leaders are intent on weakening the U.S. alliance in SYRIA as the U.S. fights ISIS with SYRIAN KURDISH forces who the TURKS believe to be an offshoot of the KURDISH PKK organization that has waged war against TURKEY since 1984. Therefore, the strategic relationship between TURKEY and the U.S. has now been reduced to U.S. access to Incirlik Air Base in TURKEY from which the U.S. and its allies conduct operations against ISIS that the Turks have threatened on numerous occasions to rescind permission to use. In my opinion, this situation perfectly reflects the new geopolitical landscape in the region of you punish me and I will punish you with the ultimate soap opera screw of turning to your opposition to maintain a mistress while flaunting relations in public space to essentially spit in your face.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Moving on to IRAQ, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after almost nine months of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ’s since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power. In my opinion, it will be extremely difficult to eradicate ISIS completely from IRAQ as ISIS still controls AL QAIM, west of ANBAR whose fight has its own set of complicated political, military and foreign policy issues. Therefore, in my opinion, the last stronghold in IRAQ consisting of AL QAIM will be the most brutal and savage wars yet fought in IRAQ as ISIS has laid the foundation for martyrdom. That is, ISIS has in essence sent the message to its remaining conclaves that their only choice is to fight until death at the hands of the ALLIANCE, as the only other option is to choose to be killed by ISIS itself. Therefore, in my opinion now that ISIS has entered the final realm of one of the most brutal civil wars in history, ISIS has in essence elevated its game to complete and utter Barbarian, Neanderthal, Self-Centered, Egotistical, Narcissistic, Masochistic, Sadistic, Idiosyncratic, Sociopathic and Psychopathic maniacs.
In my opinion, taking out ISIS in TAL AFAR was less complicated that I had initially envisioned because SHIITE militias do not appear to have taken revenge on ethnic TURKS living in the town. That is, both SUNNI Muslim and SHIITE Muslim TURKS lived in TAL AFAR before ISIS took over while the SUNNI Muslim TURKS who remain are considered by many to have been supporters of ISIS but they were not directly attacked as part of the liberation of TAL AFAR. Therefore, the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly transferred from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred to as TAL AFAR in a lightening fast military offensive. In my opinion, although ISIS has lost a lot of land in both IRAQ and SYRIA, this is not the end of ISIS as a terrorist organization. Furthermore, as was seen this week ISIS still continues to strike ALLIANCE forces whenever there is an opportunity available such that the IRAQI army continues to withstand the barrage of ISIS counter strikes as was demonstrated this week by the IRAQI military who seems to have been able to retake HAWIJA, the main town in one of the last two enclaves of ISIS in the country although a few villages east of the town of HAWIJA are believed to still be under ISIS control. In my opinion, IRAQI troops still need to thoroughly patrol all regions that have been liberated in HAWIJA as ISIS militants could very well still be hiding in underground tunnels or remote regions in order to attack the IRAQI troops once again when the IRAQI troops let their guard down. In my opinion, over 100 villages in the outskirts of HAWIJA still need to be purged to finalize the liberation of HAWIJA as to the extent armed ISIS militants are still at large, the liberation of HAWIJA cannot be deemed completed. Nonetheless, with around 560 ISIS militants killed and more than 100 regions liberated, the operations in HAWIJA by the IRAQI military were quite impressive by taking over control of more than 80% of the HAWIJA territory by focusing on the ISIS strongholds in the region. However, now that ISIS has pretty much fallen in HAWIJA, ISIS is left with only a stretch of the EUPHRATES river valley around AL-QAIM in the western desert near the border with SYRIA. Nonetheless, ISIS still controls large parts of the valley in the neighbouring SYRIAN province of DEIR AL-ZOUR although ISIS is under pressure there from both SYRIAN government forces under President Bashar al-Assad and a US backed alliance of KURDISH and ARAB fighters such that it appears just a matter of time before ISIS control over neighbouring DEIR AL-ZOUR also collapses. However, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of a new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
In my opinion, taking out ISIS in AL QAIM will be complicated because AL QAIM is located on an international border, between IRAQ and SYRIA such that due to its strategic geographical location, AL QAIM is by far the most secure city held by ISIS. Thus, both SYRIA and IRAQ would have to coordinate a military campaign against ISIS in AL QAIM. However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations.
In regards to RUSSIA, the only major power that did not call on IRAQI KURDS to cancel the referendum on independence on September 25, 2017 as RUSSIA has swiftly become the top funder of KURDISH oil and gas deals with as much as $ 4 billion pledged in less than a year, this is just another example of the new geopolitical landscape whereby money talks and shit walks. However, the U.S., EUROPEAN countries, TURKEY and IRAN that all lined up to oppose the move by IRAQI’s KURDS to hold the September 25 referendum on independence because of fear of an IRAQI civil war between the KURDS and IRAQI forces, who have managed to coordinate their efforts thus far by focusing on a common enemy of ISIS, seem to both be open to pursue further dialogue as opposed to war. In my opinion, the IRAQI KURDS have the right to pursue their independence pursuant to the majority win by the KURDS with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, albeit the reality that they seem to be moving way too fast given that the IRAQI government claims that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. In my opinion, the IRAQI KURDS still need to negotiate with the IRAQI government to respect the IRAQI constitution such that although the KURDISH vote was a clear indication of majority support for separation, the September 25 referendum only serves a symbolic victory thus far, as it cannot be supported legally without further negotiations with the IRAQI government. However, in my opinion, the build-up this week of IRAQI forces along with IRANIAN trained paramilitaries deploying heavy weaponry in KIRKUK, the jewel of the proposed future KURDISTAN state, is quite disturbing given that the build up includes tanks, heavy artillery, Humvees and mortars. Given that the IRAQI led forces are approximately 3 kilometers from KURDISH YPG front line positions, the IRAQI army could very well have the intentions to take over nearby oil fields, the airport and the military base. In my opinion, the moves by the IRAQI government this week are more provocative than last week with IRAQ’s air embargo suspending international flights to and from the KURDISTAN Region in addition to other IRAQI measures amounting to collective punishment on the people of KURDISTAN for voting in majority favour of separation from IRAQ. In my opinion, KURDISTAN continues calling on the IRAQI government for dialogue and peaceful means to settle their differences such that the international community too must denounce the IRAQI military deployments and pressure the IRAQI government to return to the negotiating table as using force would benefit no one. As a friendly reminder, escaping the from the brutalities of the ISIS regime, nearly two million IRAQIS and SYRIANS found safety in KURDISTAN who are now once again living in fear as tensions rise between KURDISTAN and IRAQ after the referendum. In my opinion, the situation in KURDISTAN illustrates the new geopolitical realities whereby if you vote to separate without proper authorization from the federation, your lives will be made miserable with collective punishment inflicted on the mass for supporting the local bad ass who launched the referendum dash on the presumption that the jewel of KIRKUK would remain part of the future KURDISTAN which is critical to finance autonomy as one cannot eat dirt to survive but rather one needs oil to fuel the economic drive.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s future should be off the agenda for now and the main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace.
In regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad watched as the cease-fire agreement that establishes four de-escalation zones was violated once again. In my opinion, although the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt, I believe that RUSSIAN and U.S. round-the-clock discussions anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control should be welcomed as a positive development in fully implementing the de-escalation zones. In my opinion, it is better for RUSSIA and the U.S. to try to work together to implement something in terms of de-escalation zones as opposed to sitting back and insuring that both parties achieve nothing.
In regards to tensions de-escalating this week as the SYRIAN Army under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH now focused on targeting ISIS in DEIR AL-ZOR after letting ISIS withdraw from SYRIA’s border with LEBANON to the eastern province of DEIR AL-ZOR, this strategic shift in focus by the SYRIAN Army on ISIS is key to overall peace in the region as the only issue that everybody in the region seems to agree upon is that ISIS needs to be contained to an underground organization without any significant control of land particularly along any major borders. Thus, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, the strikes on ISIS this week around DEIR AL-ZOR were perfectly timed as ISIS has been losing momentum with recent losses in neighbouring IRAQ and SYRIA while also being hit hard elsewhere in SYRIA by SDF forces. In my opinion, for ISIS, losing AL-MAYADEEN might be a bigger loss than their imminent defeat in RAQQA City as AL-MAYADEEN is located along the main road to ISIS’s most important IRAQI crossing at ALBUKAMAL. Furthermore, ALBUKAMAL is located directly west of the IRAQI city of AL-QA’IM that is another ISIS stronghold in the AL-ANBAR region that ISIS is desperately attempting to hold. However, in my opinion, the collateral damage is horrendous as those who managed to escape state that conditions inside DEIR AL-ZOR have deteriorated with food, water, medicine and electricity all growing scarce while trapped civilians are unable to reach passage zones to safety, shelter and protection. Therefore, these innocent civilians face the bleak choice of staying in DEIR AL-ZOR engulfed by conflict or fleeing through the fighting with either choice bearing a high risk of death from being caught in the crossfires. In regards to the attack that destroyed the UNICEF supported vaccine cold room in AL-MAYADEEN, this will likely cripple efforts to protect children from a range of life threatening diseases including measles and polio as AL-MAYADEEN is at the center of an outbreak of polio which has so far paralyzed 48 children since March of 2017. Unfortunately, after all of this suffering, in my opinion, the realities of the ISIS organization are that ISIS will not disappear completely off the face of the map as they still have quite a bit of amassed wealth such that eventually some sort of ceasefire deal will need to be negotiated with ISIS to contain them to limited restricted areas as opposed to dispersing them across the globe and giving ISIS the opportunity to launch covert terrorist strikes globally.
In regards to U.S. backed fighters surrounding the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA, capturing RAQQA would be a major achievement in the battle against ISIS and help bring an end to ISIS’s reign of terror trying to create a so-called Caliphate. In my opinion, ISIS has used RAQQA for over three years to stage deadly attacks on the Middle East and further overseas such that capturing RAQQA from ISIS would significantly reduce ISIS’s terrorist capabilities in the future. In my opinion, the increasing ISIS usage of suicide car bombs, snipers, drones and tunnels to slow down SDF advances with the fight becoming a matter of life and death for both sides has inevitably reduced the pace of advancement by the SDF in RAQQA. Nonetheless, the SDF continues to push forward and to advance into the center of RAQQA city where they have been thwarting car bombs and suicide attacks to the point where the SDF and the SYRIAN Arab Army forces have now liberated approximately 80% of the RAQQA enclave. In my opinion, with 80% of the RAQQA territory captured from ISIS, the SDF is now entering the final stages of the war against ISIS albeit the realities that the last 20% will be the most difficult and painful to conquest. In my opinion, the remaining ISIS fighters in RAQQA CITY have now been confined to the city centre in government administrative buildings, stadiums and tunnels thanks to heavy coalition air strikes forcing ISIS to withdraw from at least five key neighbourhoods around RAQQA CITY. However, in my opinion the remaining ISIS fighters in RAQQA CITY will most likely die in a street fight whereby their food and ammunitions will run out after which they will attempt one last storm on SDF forces only to die in a blaze of glory in ISIS minds of the mentally disturbed kind. Nonetheless, the strength of the ISIS terrorists is running out as their defeats thus far in RAQQA have undermined their morale and prevented them from fighting back effectively other than hiding behind innocent civilians as human shields. Therefore, in my opinion, it is just a matter of time for the whole of RAQQA to be liberated from ISIS when the ISIS terrorists will not have any places left to hide.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 268” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace as IRAQI KURDISH referendum resulted in YES win with 92.73% support from the turnout of 72% illustrating the new geopolitical realities whereby if you vote to separate without proper authorization from the federation, your lives will be made miserable with collective punishment inflicted on the mass for supporting the local bad ass who launched the referendum dash on the presumption that the jewel of KIRKUK would remain part of the future KURDISTAN which is critical to finance autonomy as one cannot eat dirt to survive but rather one needs oil to fuel the economy.
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