Saturday, September 23, 2017
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 265
Moving
on to IRAQ, IRAQI and ALLIED forces have pushed ISIS militants back from MOSUL,
their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces first liberated
the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety subsequent to ALLIANCE
forces seizing complete control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS. It is important
to note that IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS to the point of ISIS
relinquishing control of MOSUL as the world watched the scenes of jubilation as
IRAQI forces liberated the OLD MOSUL City from ISIS. However, with
40,000 plus dead in the battle to take back OLD MOSUL City from ISIS, the scale
of civilian casualties reveals a massacre with many bodies still buried under
the rubble and the level of human suffering immense. However, ISIS is far from
eradicated in IRAQ as several strongholds still remain such that the final battles
to push ISIS out of these places will be more complicated than the previous straightforward
fights in places such as FALLUJAH and TIKRIT. Today, ISIS still controls two
towns consisting of HAWIJA, south of KIRKUK and AL QAIM, west of ANBAR whereby
each fight will have its own set of complicated political, military and foreign
policy issues. In addition, many ISIS militias have taken to the hills and began
to wage a classic rural guerrilla war, while some ISIS sleeper cells have also been
activated at the border of Baghdad, the IRAQI capital. Thus, ISIS has now
returned to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group as the Islamic State
of IRAQ and SYRIA can no longer call itself a state as ISIS has lost all
capacity to act as a state but rather ISIS now stands exposed as a GANGSTER sham.
On
the heels of the IRAQI military victory in MOSUL, IRAQI forces have broken
through ISIS’s defences inside the northern city of TAL AFAR and reached the
city centre that represents a major gain in the battle for ISIS’s last urban
stronghold in IRAQ as IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared
victory over ISIS in the northern city of TAL AFAR and the entire province of
NINEVEH. However, it is important to note that ISIS still continues to strike
ALLIANCE forces whenever there is an opportunity available such that the IRAQI
army continues to withstand the barrage of ISIS counter strikes as was
demonstrated this week by IRAQI forces that launched an operation to recapture
the last stronghold of ISIS in IRAQ’s western desert by attacking ISIS in the
city of ANA. It is important to note that the progress of IRAQI forces were
slowed down by dozens of booby-traps which have become the signature of ISIS
militants desperation to thwart the advances by IRAQI forces. It is important
to note that ANA, located 90 km from the SYRIAN border is one of three IRAQI
towns in the EUPHRATES river valley still held by ISIS. Therefore, after
retaking ANA, IRAQI forces will target RAWA, 12 km to the north followed by
AL-QAIM that is the last IRAQI town before the border with SYRIA. Therefore, in
order to limit ISIS capabilities to mount future offensives, it is important
for the SHIA-dominated government of IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to
reconcile the leaders of the SUNNI tribes, many of who supported ISIS because
they did not believe they were properly represented in IRAQ while
contemporaneously engaging with the KURDS who have played a key role in
defeating ISIS.
Meanwhile,
RUSSIA, the only major power that has not called on IRAQI’s KURDS to cancel a
referendum on independence next week has swiftly become the top funder of
KURDISH oil and gas deals with as much as $ 4 billion pledged in less than a
year. However, the U.S., EUROPEAN countries, TURKEY and IRAN have all lined up
to oppose the move by IRAQI’s KURDS to hold the September 25 referendum on
independence which the KURDS consider the culmination of decades of struggle
for a KURDISH state of their own although the IRAQI government has clearly
stated that the referendum is in violation of the IRAQI constitution. Although
the U.S. issued a statement calling the planned referendum provocative and
destabilizing because it will take place within the autonomous KURDISH region
itself that is currently considered to be a disputed territory, RUSSIA did not
issue any such call to cancel the vote. Rather, RUSSIAN state oil giant ROSNEFT
announced its latest investment to help IRAQI KURDISTAN develop its natural gas
industry for domestic supplies and eventual export worth more than $1 billion although
the full value of the deal was not officially disclosed.
Moving
on to SYRIA, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers,
RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security
Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the
six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic
efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing
of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response
to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than
100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire
peace process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State
Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks.
Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed
on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN
regime carried out the chemical attacks. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed
for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week although TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA signed an
agreement at the SYRIAN cease-fire talks in KAZAKHSTAN several weeks ago calling
for the creation of four de-escalation zones in SYRIA that represent the latest attempt by
all key players in the region to reduce the violence in SYRIA including the
commitment by President Bashar al-Assad that the SYRIAN air force will halt
flights over the designated areas in SYRIA. Unfortunately, the new cease-fire
deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous
violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt albeit Russia
and the U.S. continuing to discuss the situation in round-the-clock mode anticipating
that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control.
On a
positive note, U.S. backed fighters have surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA as
they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA
whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF),
a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, have cut off all routes into and out of
RAQQA. As a friendly reminder, nearly 200,000 people and 5,000 ISIS militants
live in RAQQA such that the efforts to retake the SYRIAN city has now drawn dozens
of U.S. military advisors deployed directly inside RAQQA city itself with U.S.
Marines providing artillery support against ISIS from the surrounding
countryside. Fighters of the U.S. backed, KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces
(SDF) continue to punch their way through ISIS lines in RAQQA city as KURDISH
forces are literally shooting their way through the streets of RAQQA,
concentrating fire on ISIS positions hidden in the urban ruin of RAQQA city
while ISIS fights back hard. On a positive note, the SDF announced that they
are continuing to advance into the center of RAQQA city where they have been
thwarting car bombs and suicide attacks. Heavy clashes continue between the SDF
and the ISIS militants in the surrounding areas of RAQQA that have reached
their final stages with the opening by the SDF forces of a new front against
ISIS on the northern edge of RAQQA.
In
my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a
positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the
PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However,
with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears
that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the
governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war
with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which
secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my
opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the
hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather
everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its
ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal
with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE.
In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for
2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3
billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its
citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President
Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the
failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military
ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with
their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself
into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby
virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European
parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning
the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed
“Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a
shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that
TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as
the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion,
TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that
the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent
NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in
exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5
million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5
billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with
visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside
of TURKISH borders.
Moving
on to IRAQ, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put
enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL
has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the
challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL
last. That is, after almost nine months of fierce fighting, the campaign to
recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for
IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic
and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the
victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed
territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside
powers that have shaped IRAQ’s since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled
Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE
majority to power. In my opinion, it will be extremely difficult to eradicate
ISIS completely from IRAQ as ISIS still controls three towns consisting of TAL
AFAR, west of MOSUL; HAWIJA, south of KIRKUK; and AL QAIM, west of ANBAR
whereby each fight will have its own set of complicated political, military and
foreign policy issues. Therefore, in my opinion, the last three strongholds in
IRAQ consisting of TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL QAIM will be the most brutal and
savage wars yet fought in IRAQ as ISIS has laid the foundation for martyrdom.
That is, ISIS has in essence sent the message to its remaining conclaves that
their only choice is to fight until death at the hands of the ALLIANCE, as the
only other option is to choose to be killed by ISIS itself. Therefore, in my
opinion now that ISIS has entered the final realm of one of the most brutal
civil wars in history, ISIS has in essence elevated its game to complete and
utter Barbarian, Neanderthal, Self-Centered,
Egotistical, Narcissistic, Masochistic, Sadistic, Idiosyncratic, Sociopathic
and Psychopathic maniacs.
In
my opinion, taking out ISIS in TAL AFAR was less complicated that I had
initially envisioned because SHIITE militias do not appear to have taken
revenge on ethnic TURKS living in the town. That is, both SUNNI Muslim and
SHIITE Muslim TURKS lived in TAL AFAR before ISIS took over while the SUNNI
Muslim TURKS who remain are considered by many to have been supporters of ISIS
but they were not directly attacked as part of the liberation of TAL AFAR.
Therefore, the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly
transferred from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred
to as TAL AFAR in a lightening fast military offensive. However, ISIS now seems
like a terrorist organization gone completely irate with ISIS leader, Abu Bakr
al-Baghdadi now organising a number of sophisticated attacks against WESTERN
targets to boost the morale of ISIS fighters after the series of devastating
defeats ISIS suffered in places such as MOSUL, RAQQA and TAL AFAR. In my
opinion, although ISIS has lost a lot of land in both IRAQ and SYRIA, this is
not the end of ISIS as a terrorist organization. Furthermore, as was seen this
week IRAQI forces continue with their offensives against ISIS as they focused
their attention on ANA, located 90 km from the SYRIAN border which represents
one of three IRAQI towns in the EUPHRATES river valley still held by ISIS. Therefore,
in my opinion after retaking ANA, IRAQI forces will target RAWA, 12 km to the
north followed by AL-QAIM that is the last IRAQI town before the border with
SYRIA in conformance with the IRAQI objective to bring the entire province of
ANBAR back under control of the IRAQI nation. Lastly, in my opinion, IRAQ will
need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ
otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the
SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end
of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of a
new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
In
my opinion, taking out ISIS in HAWIJA will be complicated because it is located
in KIRKUK that is known as a disputed territory because IRAQI KURDS believe HAWIJA
should be part of their nearby semi-autonomous region but IRAQI ARABS believe
it is part of IRAQ. That is, if the SHIITE Muslim Arabs stay in HAWIJA after
ISIS is expelled, this dilutes the KURDISH claims on the area. In addition, the
SUNNI Muslim tribal leaders in this area are worried that if the IRAQI KURDISH
military or the SHIITE Muslim militias take part in the battle against ISIS for
HAWIJA, then the SUNNI Muslim tribes will be attacked as well as they are
considered by many to be supporters of ISIS. In my opinion, taking out ISIS in AL
QAIM will be complicated because AL QAIM is located on an international border,
between IRAQ and SYRIA such that due to its strategic geographical location, AL
QAIM is by far the most secure city held by ISIS. Thus, both SYRIA and IRAQ
would have to coordinate a military campaign against ISIS in AL QAIM. However,
with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need
to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from
ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an
expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist
role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is
already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote
areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime
to bankroll future operations.
In
regards to RUSSIA, the only major power that has not called on IRAQI’s KURDS to
cancel a referendum on independence next week as RUSSIA has swiftly become the
top funder of KURDISH oil and gas deals with as much as $ 4 billion pledged in
less than a year, this is just another example of the new geopolitical
landscape whereby money talks and shit walks. In my opinion, RUSSIA has
demonstrated once again that it supports the concept of autonomy to the extent
it benefits RUSSIA’s economy albeit the reality that everybody else plays this
same game whereby pick and choose their respective battles depending on an
analysis of costs versus benefits to ignore underlying domestic issues without
any shame by choosing not to lay any blame. In my opinion, the U.S., EUROPEAN
countries, TURKEY and IRAN have all lined up to oppose the move by IRAQI’s
KURDS to hold the September 25 referendum on independence because it will take
place within the autonomous KURDISH region itself that is currently considered
to be a disputed territory such that everybody is afraid of another IRAQI civil
war between the KURDS and IRAQI forces who have managed to coordinate their
efforts thus far by focusing on a common enemy of ISIS to set the bar. In my
opinion, the IRAQI KURDS have the right to pursue their independence via a
democratic referendum albeit the reality that they seem to be moving way too
fast given that the IRAQI government claims that the referendum is in violation
of IRAQI constitutionality. In my opinion, it would have been far more
effective for the IRAQI KURDS to hold off on their referendum while negotiating
a deal with the IRAQI government to respect the IRAQI constitutionality so that
whatever the end result will be, it can be supported legally as opposed to the
upcoming September 25 referendum that will likely only serve a victory
symbolically.
Moving
on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel
stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and
sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears
to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval
from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much
political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition
relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA
managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s
forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed
to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel
factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s
two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as
guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty
International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison
in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of
President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of
negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad's future should be off the agenda for now and the
main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections
as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to
implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace.
In
regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S.
President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK
cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S.
believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people
authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now
formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these
chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be
behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and
RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while
officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA
that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad watched as the
cease-fire agreement that establishes four de-escalation zones was violated
once again. In my opinion, although the new cease-fire deal including the four
de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the
outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt, I believe that RUSSIAN and U.S.
round-the-clock discussions anticipating that eventually the de-escalation
zones will be fully under control should be welcomed as a positive development
in fully implementing the de-escalation zones. In my opinion, it is better for
RUSSIA and the U.S. to try to work together to implement something in terms of
de-escalation zones as opposed to sitting back and insuring that both parties
achieve nothing.
In regards
to U.S. backed fighters surrounding the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to
oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA, capturing
RAQQA would be a major achievement in the battle against ISIS and help bring an
end to ISIS’s reign of terror trying to create a so-called Caliphate. In my
opinion, ISIS has used RAQQA for over three years to stage deadly attacks on
the Middle East and further overseas such that capturing RAQQA from ISIS would
significantly reduce ISIS’s terrorist capabilities in the future. In my
opinion, the current strategy whereby U.S. airpower drops a barrage of bombs to
suppress ISIS movements behind and towards the front-lines within the city, while
KURDISH forces on the ground let loose with a barrage of small arms fire to
break up ISIS fighters at sight will be less effective moving forward as ISIS
has now adopted guerrilla warfare tactics including the intentional usage of
innocent civilians as human shields to avoid air strikes by ALLIANCE forces. In
addition, the increasing ISIS usage of suicide car bombs, snipers, drones and
tunnels to slow down SDF advances with the fight becoming a matter of life and
death for both sides has inevitably reduced the pace of advancement by the SDF
in RAQQA. Nonetheless, the SDF continues to push forward and to advance into
the center of RAQQA city where they have been thwarting car bombs and suicide
attacks to the point where the SDF and the SYRIAN Arab Army forces have now liberated
approximately 80% of the RAQQA enclave. In my opinion, with 80% of the RAQQA
territory captured from ISIS, the SDF is now entering the final stages of the
war against ISIS albeit the realities that the last 20% will be the most difficult
and painful to conquest. In my opinion, the remaining ISIS fighters in RAQQA
CITY have now been confined to the city centre in government administrative
buildings, stadiums and tunnels thanks to heavy coalition air strikes forcing
ISIS to withdraw from at least five key neighbourhoods around RAQQA CITY. However,
in my opinion the remaining ISIS fighters in RAQQA CITY will most likely die in
a street fight whereby their food and ammunitions will run out after which they
will attempt one last storm on SDF forces only to die in a blaze of glory in
ISIS minds of the mentally disturbed kind.
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