Saturday, September 23, 2017

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 265

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 265





TURKEY News


During the week ending on Sunday, September 24, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants.

Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKEY introduced a new curriculum at schools across TURKEY this academic year. Of particular note is that children will find the introduction to the theory of evolution removed from their high school biology textbooks. In addition, the time dedicated to teaching the secular ideals of TURKEY’s founder, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, has been greatly reduced and public schools will now have to teach the concept of JIHAD that the TURKISH government says is to counter the use of religion to justify violence although this decision has received widespread opposition from secularists. The TURKISH government obviously has an agenda for education because affecting the minds of TURKISH youth is of the utmost importance to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan such that the changes to the curriculum are ideological as opposed to scientific or academic in nature. Meanwhile, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says U.S. President Donald Trump called him and apologized about U.S. legal action targeting 19 TURKISH security officials who were involved in clashes with peaceful protesters in the U.S. this year while the U.S. denied the TURKISH claim. In an interview with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, according to a translator, U.S. President Donald Trump called President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and said that he was sorry and told President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that he was going to follow up on this issue when President Recep Tayyip Erdogan comes to the United States within the framework of an official visit.

IRAQ News



Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and ALLIED forces have pushed ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces first liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety subsequent to ALLIANCE forces seizing complete control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS. It is important to note that IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS to the point of ISIS relinquishing control of MOSUL as the world watched the scenes of jubilation as IRAQI forces liberated the OLD MOSUL City from ISIS. However, with 40,000 plus dead in the battle to take back OLD MOSUL City from ISIS, the scale of civilian casualties reveals a massacre with many bodies still buried under the rubble and the level of human suffering immense. However, ISIS is far from eradicated in IRAQ as several strongholds still remain such that the final battles to push ISIS out of these places will be more complicated than the previous straightforward fights in places such as FALLUJAH and TIKRIT. Today, ISIS still controls two towns consisting of HAWIJA, south of KIRKUK and AL QAIM, west of ANBAR whereby each fight will have its own set of complicated political, military and foreign policy issues. In addition, many ISIS militias have taken to the hills and began to wage a classic rural guerrilla war, while some ISIS sleeper cells have also been activated at the border of Baghdad, the IRAQI capital. Thus, ISIS has now returned to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group as the Islamic State of IRAQ and SYRIA can no longer call itself a state as ISIS has lost all capacity to act as a state but rather ISIS now stands exposed as a GANGSTER sham.

On the heels of the IRAQI military victory in MOSUL, IRAQI forces have broken through ISIS’s defences inside the northern city of TAL AFAR and reached the city centre that represents a major gain in the battle for ISIS’s last urban stronghold in IRAQ as IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared victory over ISIS in the northern city of TAL AFAR and the entire province of NINEVEH. However, it is important to note that ISIS still continues to strike ALLIANCE forces whenever there is an opportunity available such that the IRAQI army continues to withstand the barrage of ISIS counter strikes as was demonstrated this week by IRAQI forces that launched an operation to recapture the last stronghold of ISIS in IRAQ’s western desert by attacking ISIS in the city of ANA. It is important to note that the progress of IRAQI forces were slowed down by dozens of booby-traps which have become the signature of ISIS militants desperation to thwart the advances by IRAQI forces. It is important to note that ANA, located 90 km from the SYRIAN border is one of three IRAQI towns in the EUPHRATES river valley still held by ISIS. Therefore, after retaking ANA, IRAQI forces will target RAWA, 12 km to the north followed by AL-QAIM that is the last IRAQI town before the border with SYRIA. Therefore, in order to limit ISIS capabilities to mount future offensives, it is important for the SHIA-dominated government of IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to reconcile the leaders of the SUNNI tribes, many of who supported ISIS because they did not believe they were properly represented in IRAQ while contemporaneously engaging with the KURDS who have played a key role in defeating ISIS.

Meanwhile, RUSSIA, the only major power that has not called on IRAQI’s KURDS to cancel a referendum on independence next week has swiftly become the top funder of KURDISH oil and gas deals with as much as $ 4 billion pledged in less than a year. However, the U.S., EUROPEAN countries, TURKEY and IRAN have all lined up to oppose the move by IRAQI’s KURDS to hold the September 25 referendum on independence which the KURDS consider the culmination of decades of struggle for a KURDISH state of their own although the IRAQI government has clearly stated that the referendum is in violation of the IRAQI constitution. Although the U.S. issued a statement calling the planned referendum provocative and destabilizing because it will take place within the autonomous KURDISH region itself that is currently considered to be a disputed territory, RUSSIA did not issue any such call to cancel the vote. Rather, RUSSIAN state oil giant ROSNEFT announced its latest investment to help IRAQI KURDISTAN develop its natural gas industry for domestic supplies and eventual export worth more than $1 billion although the full value of the deal was not officially disclosed.

SYRIA News



Moving on to SYRIA, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire peace process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks. Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN regime carried out the chemical attacks. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week although TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA signed an agreement at the SYRIAN cease-fire talks in KAZAKHSTAN several weeks ago calling for the creation of four de-escalation zones in SYRIA that represent the latest attempt by all key players in the region to reduce the violence in SYRIA including the commitment by President Bashar al-Assad that the SYRIAN air force will halt flights over the designated areas in SYRIA. Unfortunately, the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt albeit Russia and the U.S. continuing to discuss the situation in round-the-clock mode anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control.


However, tensions seemed to de-escalate this week as the SYRIAN Army under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH let ISIS withdraw from SYRIA’s border with LEBANON to the eastern province of DEIR AL-ZOR. LEBANESE President Michel Aoun declared that LEBANON has been victorious over ISIS but angry IRAQI and U.S. officials pointed out that in fact, ISIS was bussed over the border to SYRIA to become someone else’s problem. Ironically, the convoy of ISIS fighters that was stranded in the SYRIAN desert for several weeks finally reached DEIR AL-ZOR after the U.S. led coalition allowed it free passage in spite of a pledge to prevent it from doing so. Thus, the agreement ended ISIS’s presence on the LEBANESE border after three years in the BEKAA VALLEY of LEBANON. Meanwhile, LEBANON’s army arrested ISIS militants who were planning attacks in LEBANON after foreign embassies warned their citizens to avoid public places. The Lebanese Army carried out several raids arresting 19 people linked to an ISIS terrorist cell as LEBANESE security forces were taking extra precautions to prevent the threat of an ISIS terrorist strike. The cell which had planned and prepared to carry out terrorist actions was led by EGYPTIAN Fadi Ibrahim Ahmed who was operating from the AIN EL-HILWEH refugee camp in southern LEBANON.

On a positive note, U.S. backed fighters have surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, have cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. As a friendly reminder, nearly 200,000 people and 5,000 ISIS militants live in RAQQA such that the efforts to retake the SYRIAN city has now drawn dozens of U.S. military advisors deployed directly inside RAQQA city itself with U.S. Marines providing artillery support against ISIS from the surrounding countryside. Fighters of the U.S. backed, KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) continue to punch their way through ISIS lines in RAQQA city as KURDISH forces are literally shooting their way through the streets of RAQQA, concentrating fire on ISIS positions hidden in the urban ruin of RAQQA city while ISIS fights back hard. On a positive note, the SDF announced that they are continuing to advance into the center of RAQQA city where they have been thwarting car bombs and suicide attacks. Heavy clashes continue between the SDF and the ISIS militants in the surrounding areas of RAQQA that have reached their final stages with the opening by the SDF forces of a new front against ISIS on the northern edge of RAQQA.

TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions



In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders.

Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Ironically, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKEY introduced a new curriculum at schools across TURKEY this academic year whereby the theory of evolution has been removed and the secular ideals of TURKEY’s founder, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, has been greatly reduced in public schools. In my opinion, this shift lead by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is to reinforce the true ISLAMIC religion in TURKEY’s education system and to shift away from attitudes, activities or other things that have no religious or spiritual basis. It is important to note that according to the latest census in 2016, ISLAM was the major religion in TURKEY comprising 82% of the total population, followed by unaffiliated people with 13% and Christianity with 2%. Therefore, in my opinion to reinforce ISLAM which does apply to the vast majority of the population in TURKEY wil only reinforce strong core values, morals, principals and ethics such that to the extent the rights of minorities are not infringed upon by granting such children an opt-out option, I see these changes as beneficial to developing the honesty, integrity and respect of the TURKISH children. In regards to the manipulation of history and avoiding evolution, TURKISH children still have access to the Intranet such that if these topics of are interest, they will have the opportunity to use GOOGLE to note that evolution by natural selection is a process demonstrated by the observation that more offspring are produced than can possibly survive, along with three facts about populations: 1) traits vary among individuals with respect to morphology, physiology, and behaviour (phenotypic variation); 2) different traits confer different rates of survival and reproduction (differential fitness); and 3) traits can be passed from generation to generation (heritability of fitness). Thus, in successive generations descendants of parents better adapted to survive and reproduce in the biophysical environment in which natural selection takes place replaces members of a population. Thus, in my opinion, this never ending debate over exclusion of the theory of evolution from the education curriculum is more politically driven than substance driven as can be seen from the definition above whereby in actuality the theory of evolution is an opinion that those who feel is contrary to ISLAM can simply ignore with a giant yawn as a sign of an excessive bore. However, this debate over the theory of evolution is an example of the new geopolitical landscape whereby overly educated technocrats enter into a never ending theoretical debate when in actuality everything commenced from a stable state such that the focus should be on the elimination of the evolution of hate in order to educate TURKISH offspring on the need to tolerate.

In regards to TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan saying that U.S. President Donald Trump called him and apologized about U.S. legal action targeting 19 TURKISH security officials who were involved in clashes with peaceful protesters in the U.S. this year, while the U.S. denied the TURKISH claim, this is another example of drama on the geopolitical stage. In my opinion, the security guards allowed the protesters to get under their skin namely because many of them were loyal activists of the KURDISH YPG as TURKEY considers the YPG a terror organization and an extension of KURDISH PKK militants waging a thirty plus years insurgency against the TURKISH state although the YPG is a key U.S. ally in SYRIA against ISIS. In my opinion, this case has all the characteristics of a prolonged legal battle as only two suspects, who are not security officers, were arrested in June and appeared in court on September 7, while the rest remain at large and are thought to have returned to TURKEY. Therefore, it is my opinion that lawyers on both sides will enter into a prolonged legal battle regarding the legitimacy of the accusations with primary focus on jurisdiction and power of authority. In my opinion, the security officers behaved in conformance with TURKISH norms under the circumstances although their actions were clearly in conflict with U.S. laws and regulations. That is, the protestors exercised their civil rights and liberties to freedom of speech to essentially blast President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that is acceptable under the fundamental U.S. principal that to the extent the protestors are peaceful and do not resort to violence or threats, they have the right to voice their opinions including denouncing President Recep Tayyip Erdogan directly to his face in public. However, in TURKEY this type of protesting behaviour is not tolerated as it is categorized as violence and threats towards the President such that the security guards trained and educated in TURKEY behaved in accordance with TURKISH application of the laws concerning freedom of speech which limit freedom of expression to positive complimenting only of the President. Thus, I believe we will see a circus act unfold in the U.S. courts to conclude that these activities represented an inappropriate relationship. In my opinion, TURKISH lawyers will argue that the TURKISH security guards behaved in accordance with the TURKISH definition of inappropriate protestor actions although the protestors appear to have been in conformance with U.S. laws by limiting their activities to verbal airing of opinions without any violence or threats of violence. Therefore, there will likely be a negotiated settlement similar to the Lewinsky scandal whereby the TURKISH security guards will only admit to inappropriate relationships with protestors due to jurisdictional conflicts in the application of reasonable security measures under the circumstances in light of perceived threats by TURKISH security guards who deemed the protestors to be terrorists. In my opinion, this incident will perfectly depict the new geopolitical realities of twisting, turning and manipulating all underlying facts and circumstances in the favour of one’s personal, financial and political interests.

IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions



Moving on to IRAQ, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after almost nine months of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ’s since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power. In my opinion, it will be extremely difficult to eradicate ISIS completely from IRAQ as ISIS still controls three towns consisting of TAL AFAR, west of MOSUL; HAWIJA, south of KIRKUK; and AL QAIM, west of ANBAR whereby each fight will have its own set of complicated political, military and foreign policy issues. Therefore, in my opinion, the last three strongholds in IRAQ consisting of TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL QAIM will be the most brutal and savage wars yet fought in IRAQ as ISIS has laid the foundation for martyrdom. That is, ISIS has in essence sent the message to its remaining conclaves that their only choice is to fight until death at the hands of the ALLIANCE, as the only other option is to choose to be killed by ISIS itself. Therefore, in my opinion now that ISIS has entered the final realm of one of the most brutal civil wars in history, ISIS has in essence elevated its game to complete and utter Barbarian, Neanderthal, Self-Centered, Egotistical, Narcissistic, Masochistic, Sadistic, Idiosyncratic, Sociopathic and Psychopathic maniacs.

In my opinion, taking out ISIS in TAL AFAR was less complicated that I had initially envisioned because SHIITE militias do not appear to have taken revenge on ethnic TURKS living in the town. That is, both SUNNI Muslim and SHIITE Muslim TURKS lived in TAL AFAR before ISIS took over while the SUNNI Muslim TURKS who remain are considered by many to have been supporters of ISIS but they were not directly attacked as part of the liberation of TAL AFAR. Therefore, the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly transferred from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred to as TAL AFAR in a lightening fast military offensive. However, ISIS now seems like a terrorist organization gone completely irate with ISIS leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi now organising a number of sophisticated attacks against WESTERN targets to boost the morale of ISIS fighters after the series of devastating defeats ISIS suffered in places such as MOSUL, RAQQA and TAL AFAR. In my opinion, although ISIS has lost a lot of land in both IRAQ and SYRIA, this is not the end of ISIS as a terrorist organization. Furthermore, as was seen this week IRAQI forces continue with their offensives against ISIS as they focused their attention on ANA, located 90 km from the SYRIAN border which represents one of three IRAQI towns in the EUPHRATES river valley still held by ISIS. Therefore, in my opinion after retaking ANA, IRAQI forces will target RAWA, 12 km to the north followed by AL-QAIM that is the last IRAQI town before the border with SYRIA in conformance with the IRAQI objective to bring the entire province of ANBAR back under control of the IRAQI nation. Lastly, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of a new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.

In my opinion, taking out ISIS in HAWIJA will be complicated because it is located in KIRKUK that is known as a disputed territory because IRAQI KURDS believe HAWIJA should be part of their nearby semi-autonomous region but IRAQI ARABS believe it is part of IRAQ. That is, if the SHIITE Muslim Arabs stay in HAWIJA after ISIS is expelled, this dilutes the KURDISH claims on the area. In addition, the SUNNI Muslim tribal leaders in this area are worried that if the IRAQI KURDISH military or the SHIITE Muslim militias take part in the battle against ISIS for HAWIJA, then the SUNNI Muslim tribes will be attacked as well as they are considered by many to be supporters of ISIS. In my opinion, taking out ISIS in AL QAIM will be complicated because AL QAIM is located on an international border, between IRAQ and SYRIA such that due to its strategic geographical location, AL QAIM is by far the most secure city held by ISIS. Thus, both SYRIA and IRAQ would have to coordinate a military campaign against ISIS in AL QAIM. However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations.

In regards to RUSSIA, the only major power that has not called on IRAQI’s KURDS to cancel a referendum on independence next week as RUSSIA has swiftly become the top funder of KURDISH oil and gas deals with as much as $ 4 billion pledged in less than a year, this is just another example of the new geopolitical landscape whereby money talks and shit walks. In my opinion, RUSSIA has demonstrated once again that it supports the concept of autonomy to the extent it benefits RUSSIA’s economy albeit the reality that everybody else plays this same game whereby pick and choose their respective battles depending on an analysis of costs versus benefits to ignore underlying domestic issues without any shame by choosing not to lay any blame. In my opinion, the U.S., EUROPEAN countries, TURKEY and IRAN have all lined up to oppose the move by IRAQI’s KURDS to hold the September 25 referendum on independence because it will take place within the autonomous KURDISH region itself that is currently considered to be a disputed territory such that everybody is afraid of another IRAQI civil war between the KURDS and IRAQI forces who have managed to coordinate their efforts thus far by focusing on a common enemy of ISIS to set the bar. In my opinion, the IRAQI KURDS have the right to pursue their independence via a democratic referendum albeit the reality that they seem to be moving way too fast given that the IRAQI government claims that the referendum is in violation of IRAQI constitutionality. In my opinion, it would have been far more effective for the IRAQI KURDS to hold off on their referendum while negotiating a deal with the IRAQI government to respect the IRAQI constitutionality so that whatever the end result will be, it can be supported legally as opposed to the upcoming September 25 referendum that will likely only serve a victory symbolically.

SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions



Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's future should be off the agenda for now and the main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace.


In regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad watched as the cease-fire agreement that establishes four de-escalation zones was violated once again. In my opinion, although the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt, I believe that RUSSIAN and U.S. round-the-clock discussions anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control should be welcomed as a positive development in fully implementing the de-escalation zones. In my opinion, it is better for RUSSIA and the U.S. to try to work together to implement something in terms of de-escalation zones as opposed to sitting back and insuring that both parties achieve nothing.


In regards to tensions de-escalating this week as the SYRIAN Army under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH let ISIS withdraw from SYRIA’s border with LEBANON to the eastern province of DEIR AL-ZOR, this strategic shift in focus by the SYRIAN Army on ISIS is key to overall peace in the region as the only issue that everybody in the region seem to agree upon is that ISIS needs to be contained to an underground organization without any significant control of land particularly along any major borders. Thus, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, allowing ISIS to retreat to DEIR AL-ZOR made sense as DEIR AL-ZOR province, which borders IRAQ to the east, is almost entirely under ISIS control such that it made sense to allow ISIS to concentrate itself in territories already under ISIS control to minimize ISIS reach around the remaining parts of the Middle East. In my opinion, it is better to fight the ISIS devil in ISIS’s hell on earth of DEIR AL-ZOR than to allow the ISIS devil entrance into LEBANESE heaven to contaminate more territory like a plague turning more people mentally insane. This mental insanity could be felt this week in LEBANON as the Lebanese Army carried out several raids arresting 19 people linked to an ISIS terrorist cell as LEBANESE security forces were taking extra precautions to prevent the threat of an ISIS terrorist strike. In my opinion, the LEBANESE army needs to be vigilant against potential strikes by ISIS in LEBANON as ISIS did not leave LEBANON on a friendly note but rather left LEBANON on the basis of a strategic decision to relinquish its hold on LEBANON to focus on DEIR AL-ZOR where ISIS resources were spread way to thin such that a strategic decision was made by ISIS in the spirit of the greatest potential to prevent the opposition win which is in their heart and soul of DEIR AL-ZOR. In my opinion, the realities of the ISIS organization are that ISIS will not disappear completely off the face of the map as they still have quite a bit of amassed wealth such that eventually some sort of ceasefire deal will need to be negotiated with ISIS to contain them to limited restricted areas as opposed to dispersing them across the globe and giving ISIS the opportunity to launch covert terrorist strikes globally.


In regards to U.S. backed fighters surrounding the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA, capturing RAQQA would be a major achievement in the battle against ISIS and help bring an end to ISIS’s reign of terror trying to create a so-called Caliphate. In my opinion, ISIS has used RAQQA for over three years to stage deadly attacks on the Middle East and further overseas such that capturing RAQQA from ISIS would significantly reduce ISIS’s terrorist capabilities in the future. In my opinion, the current strategy whereby U.S. airpower drops a barrage of bombs to suppress ISIS movements behind and towards the front-lines within the city, while KURDISH forces on the ground let loose with a barrage of small arms fire to break up ISIS fighters at sight will be less effective moving forward as ISIS has now adopted guerrilla warfare tactics including the intentional usage of innocent civilians as human shields to avoid air strikes by ALLIANCE forces. In addition, the increasing ISIS usage of suicide car bombs, snipers, drones and tunnels to slow down SDF advances with the fight becoming a matter of life and death for both sides has inevitably reduced the pace of advancement by the SDF in RAQQA. Nonetheless, the SDF continues to push forward and to advance into the center of RAQQA city where they have been thwarting car bombs and suicide attacks to the point where the SDF and the SYRIAN Arab Army forces have now liberated approximately 80% of the RAQQA enclave. In my opinion, with 80% of the RAQQA territory captured from ISIS, the SDF is now entering the final stages of the war against ISIS albeit the realities that the last 20% will be the most difficult and painful to conquest. In my opinion, the remaining ISIS fighters in RAQQA CITY have now been confined to the city centre in government administrative buildings, stadiums and tunnels thanks to heavy coalition air strikes forcing ISIS to withdraw from at least five key neighbourhoods around RAQQA CITY. However, in my opinion the remaining ISIS fighters in RAQQA CITY will most likely die in a street fight whereby their food and ammunitions will run out after which they will attempt one last storm on SDF forces only to die in a blaze of glory in ISIS minds of the mentally disturbed kind.


Summary



In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 265” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace as IRAQI KURDISH referendum unfolds under new geopolitical landscape whereby money talks and shit walks such that RUSSIA supports the concept of autonomy to the extent it benefits RUSSIA’s economy albeit the reality that everybody else plays this same game whereby pick and choose their respective battles depending on an analysis of costs versus benefits to ignore underlying domestic issues without any shame by choosing not to lay any blame.



Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:

September 24, 2017

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