During
the week ending on Sunday, September 3, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days
of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly
KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was
on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that
failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them
civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”,
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended
the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days,
closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations.
A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP
re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention
on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the
heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was
held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population
voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a
presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch
with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those
opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free
Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the
boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly
authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an
intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics,
journalists, military officials and civil servants. Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored
all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with
further crackdown measures as TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
denounced the indictments in the U.S. of 19 people, among them 15 TURKISH
security officials, calling them scandalous after the 19 suspects were accused
of attacking peaceful demonstrators gathered outside the TURKISH ambassador’s
Washington home during a visit by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in May. Videos
show President Recep Tayyip Erdogan supporters and security guards hitting the
protestors as police tried to control the violence while some protestors were
heard shouting “Baby killer Erdogan” and “Long live YPG”, the SYRIAN KURDISH
militant group that has become the source of conflict in U.S. and TURKISH relations.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has now stated publicly that his security guards
were protecting him from members of the KURDISH YPG after U.S. police failed to
do so. According to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the bodyguards performed their duties against this attack
such that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused the U.S. of protecting a terror group
regardless of the fact that nine people were hurt in the attack. Nonetheless, sixteen
of the defendants were charged in June while a grand jury decision added three
more suspects, among them the head of security, Muhsin Kose. Thus far, they have been indicted on a charge of
conspiracy to commit a crime of violence, carrying a statutory maximum of 15
years in prison if found guilty. The charges all carry a “bias enhancement” that
can increase penalties and several face additional charges of assault with a
deadly weapon. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called the indictments a clear and scandalous expression of
how justice works in the U.S. and said that he would raise the issue directly with
U.S. President Donald Trump during a visit to New York this month. In addition,
TURKEY’s foreign ministry protested what TURKEY considers to be a biased
indictment and announced that TURKEY would follow legal paths to fight the
decision. Moving
on to IRAQ, IRAQI and ALLIED forces have pushed ISIS militants back from MOSUL,
their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces first liberated
the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety subsequent to ALLIANCE
forces seizing complete control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS. It is
important to note that IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS to the point of ISIS
relinquishing control of MOSUL as the world watched the scenes of jubilation as
IRAQI forces liberated the OLD MOSUL City from ISIS. However, with
40,000 plus dead in the battle to take back OLD MOSUL City from ISIS, the scale
of civilian casualties reveals a massacre with many bodies still buried under
the rubble and the level of human suffering immense. However, ISIS is far from
eradicated in IRAQ as several strongholds still remain such that the final battles
to push ISIS out of these places will be more complicated than the previous straightforward
fights in places such as FALLUJAH and TIKRIT. Today, ISIS still controls three
towns consisting of TAL AFAR, west of MOSUL; HAWIJA, south of KIRKUK; and AL
QAIM, west of ANBAR whereby each fight will have its own set of complicated political,
military and foreign policy issues. In addition, many ISIS militias have taken
to the hills and began to wage a classic rural guerrilla war, while some ISIS sleeper
cells have also been activated at the border of Baghdad, the IRAQI capital.
Thus, ISIS has now returned to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group as
the Islamic State of IRAQ and SYRIA can no longer call itself a state as ISIS
has lost all capacity to act as a state but rather ISIS now stands exposed as a
GANGSTER sham. On
the heels of the IRAQI military victory in MOSUL, IRAQI forces have now broke
through ISIS’s defences inside the northern city of TAL AFAR and reached the
city centre that represents a major gain in the battle for ISIS’s last urban
stronghold in IRAQ as IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared
victory over ISIS in the northern city of TAL AFAR and the entire province of
NINEVEH. It is important to note that TAL AFAR was also the engine of the ISIS
economy as TAL AFAR was used to smuggle oil to other areas and ISIS used TAL
AFAR to generate big revenues in terms of taxes. Therefore, the loss of TAL
AFAR and the northern province of NINEVEH is a big blow to ISIS as the loss of
NINEVEH province symbolizes a significant psychological blow, as NINEVEH is
where ISIS declared its caliphate. However, IRAQI forces are still waiting to
clear the small town of AL-AYADIYA, around 10 km northwest of TAL AFAR before
declaring a complete victory in its offensive as ISIS fighters have now
retreated to AL-AYADIYA and are putting up a heavy resistance to the IRAQI
military offensive. Moving
on to SYRIA, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers,
RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security
Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the
six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic
efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing
of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response
to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than
100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire
peace process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State
Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks.
Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed
on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN
regime carried out the chemical attacks. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed
for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week although TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA signed an
agreement at the SYRIAN cease-fire talks in KAZAKHSTAN several weeks ago calling
for the creation of four de-escalation zones in SYRIAthat represent the latest attempt by
all key players in the region to reduce the violence in SYRIA including the
commitment by President Bashar al-Assad that the SYRIAN air force will halt
flights over the designated areas in SYRIA. Unfortunately, the new cease-fire
deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous
violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt albeit Russia
and the U.S. continuing to discuss the situation in round-the-clock mode anticipating
that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control. However,
tensions seemed to de-escalate this week as the SYRIAN Army under the control
of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH
fighters captured several ISIS positions on strategic hilltops along the
SYRIAN-LEBANESE border. These captures on strategic hilltops along the
SYRIAN-LEBANESE border come ahead of an anticipated LEBANESE offensive to clear
the ISIS extremists from the LEBANESE side of the border which slowed down last
week as ISIS asked the SYRIAN Army and its ally HEZBOLLAH to let ISIS withdraw
from SYRIA’s border with LEBANON to the eastern province of DEIR AL-ZOR which
the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH agreed to in principal. Therefore, after a weeklong
campaign to oustISISfrom
its territory on the LEBANON-SYRIA border,LEBANESEPresident Michel
Aoun declared that LEBANON has been victorious over ISIS but angry IRAQI and U.S.
officials pointed out that in fact, ISIS was bussed over the border to SYRIA to
become someone else’s problem. That is, in ISIS’s first ever publicly
acknowledged evacuation deal, rather than fight to the death in the pockets in
the border mountains still under ISIS control, ISIS fighters agreed to aHEZBOLLAH-brokered evacuation plan which saw 300 ISIS
fighters and their families bussed over the border back into SYRIA. On a
positive note, U.S. backed fighters have surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA as
they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA
whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF),
a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, have cut off all routes into and out of
RAQQA. As a friendly reminder, nearly 200,000 people and 5,000 ISIS militants
live in RAQQA such that the efforts to retake the SYRIAN city has now drawn dozens
of U.S. military advisors deployed directly inside RAQQA city itself with U.S.
Marines providing artillery support against ISIS from the surrounding countryside.
It appears that these coordinated efforts are paying off as the Syrian
Democratic Forces (SDF) have made yet another huge advance across the southern
countryside of RAQQA liberating more than half of the RAQQA enclave including
the OLD RAQQA City. Fighters of the U.S. backed, KURDISH led Syrian Democratic
Forces (SDF) continue to punch their way through ISIS lines in RAQQA city as KURDISH
forces are literally shooting their way through the streets of RAQQA,
concentrating fire on ISIS positions hidden in the urban ruin of RAQQA city
while ISIS fights back hard. On a positive note this week, ISIS fighters have been pushed out from RAQQA’s OLD CITY after US backed
forces took back the city this week in a series of lightning fast advances. It
appears that SDF forces
are on the edges of ISIS’s security quarter in RAQQA’s city centre where most
of ISIS’s main bases are currently located and that many ISIS fighters and
civilians are currently holed up in the OLD RAQQA CITY. It now appears that
ISIS is surrounded on all sides as a U.S. led coalition is seeking to oust ISIS
from RAQQA, while SYRIAN government forces, backed by the RUSSIAN air force and IRAN backed militias are also advancing on the
RAQQA OLD CITY. In
my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a
positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the
PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However,
with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears
that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the
governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war
with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which
secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my
opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the
hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather
everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its
ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal
with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE.
In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for
2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3
billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its
citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President
Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the
failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military
ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with
their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself
into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby
virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European
parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning
the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed
“Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a
shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that
TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as
the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion,
TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that
the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent
NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in
exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5
million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5
billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with
visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside
of TURKISH borders. Finally,
the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing
AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his
attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement
supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the
referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the
TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be
converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one
executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor.
Ironically, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight
ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKISH President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan denounced the indictments in the U.S. of 19 people, among them
15 TURKISH security officials, calling them scandalous after the 19 suspects
were accused of attacking peaceful demonstrators gathered outside the TURKISH
ambassador’s Washington home during a visit by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
in May. In my opinion, the security guards allowed the protesters to get under
their skin namely because many of them were loyal activists of the KURDISH YPG
as TURKEY
considers the YPG a terror organization and an extension of KURDISH PKK
militants waging a thirty plus years insurgency against the TURKISH state
although the YPG is a key U.S. ally inSYRIAagainst ISIS. In my opinion, this case has all the characteristics of a
prolonged legal battle as only two suspects, who are not security officers,
were arrested in June and are scheduled to appear in court on September 7,
while the rest remain at large and are thought to have returned to TURKEY.
Therefore, it is my opinion that lawyers on both sides will enter into a
prolonged legal battle regarding the legitimacy of the accusations with primary
focus on jurisdiction and power of authority. In my opinion, the security
officers behaved in conformance with TURKISH norms under the circumstances
although their actions were clearly in conflict with U.S. laws and regulations.
That is, the protestors exercised their civil rights and liberties to freedom
of speech to essentially blast President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that is
acceptable under the fundamental U.S. principal that to the extent the
protestors are peaceful and do not resort to violence or threats, they have the
right to voice their opinions including denouncing President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan directly to his face in public. However, in TURKEY this type of
protesting behaviour is not tolerated as it is categorized as violence and
threats towards the President such that the security guards trained and
educated in TURKEY behaved in accordance with TURKISH application of the laws
concerning freedom of speech which limit freedom of expression to positive
complimenting only of the President. Thus, I believe we will see a circus act
unfold in the U.S. courts similar to the former scandal involving U.S.
President Bill Clinton and White House intern at the time Monica Lewinsky
whereby lawyers debated extensively whether a blowjob constitutes sex in the
White House only to conclude that these activities represented an inappropriate
relationship. In my opinion, TURKISH lawyers will argue that the TURKISH
security guards behaved in accordance with the TURKISH definition of inappropriate
protestor actions although the protestors appear to have been in conformance
with U.S. laws by limiting their activities to verbal airing of opinions
without any violence or threats of violence. Therefore, there will likely be a
negotiated settlement similar to the Lewinsky scandal whereby the TURKISH
security guards will only admit to inappropriate relationships with protestors
due to jurisdictional conflicts in the application of reasonable security
measures under the circumstances in light of perceived threats by TURKISH
security guards who deemed the protestors to be terrorists. In my opinion, this
incident will perfectly depict the new geopolitical realities of twisting,
turning and manipulating all underlying facts and circumstances in the favour
of one’s personal, financial and political interests. Moving
on to IRAQ, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put
enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL
has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the
challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL
last. That is, after almost nine months of fierce fighting, the campaign to
recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for
IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic
and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the
victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed
territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside
powers that have shaped IRAQ’s since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled
Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE
majority to power. In my opinion, it will be extremely difficult to eradicate
ISIS completely from IRAQ as ISIS still controls three towns consisting of TAL
AFAR, west of MOSUL; HAWIJA, south of KIRKUK; and AL QAIM, west of ANBAR
whereby each fight will have its own set of complicated political, military and
foreign policy issues. Therefore, in my opinion, the last three strongholds in
IRAQ consisting of TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL QAIM will be the most brutal and
savage wars yet fought in IRAQ as ISIS has laid the foundation for martyrdom.
That is, ISIS has in essence sent the message to its remaining conclaves that
their only choice is to fight until death at the hands of the ALLIANCE, as the
only other option is to choose to be killed by ISIS itself. Therefore, in my
opinion now that ISIS has entered the final realm of one of the most brutal
civil wars in history, ISIS has in essence elevated its game to complete and
utter Barbarian, Neanderthal,
Self-Centered, Egotistical, Narcissistic, Masochistic, Sadistic, Idiosyncratic,
Sociopathic and Psychopathic maniacs. In
my opinion, taking out ISIS in TAL AFAR was less complicated that I had
initially envisioned because SHIITE militias do not appear to have taken
revenge on ethnic TURKS living in the town. That is, both SUNNI Muslim and
SHIITE Muslim TURKS lived in TAL AFAR before ISIS took over while the SUNNI
Muslim TURKS who remain are considered by many to have been supporters of ISIS but
they were not directly attacked as part of the liberation of TAL AFAR. Therefore,
the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly transferred
from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred to as TAL
AFAR in a lightening fast military offensive. It seems that U.S. backed IRAQI
forces that launched an offensive against ISIS fighters on August 20, 2017 were
successful in their attack as the IRAQI forces have won the psychological
warfare battle against ISIS with their new motto of “wherever you are, we are
coming for you and you have no choice but to surrender or die”. In my opinion,
when ISIS initially conquered TAL AFAR over three years ago, the IRAQI military
lost the psychological battle before a single bullet was fired as ISIS scared
the IRAQI military into retreat. However, the IRAQI military fighting today
have regained the critical success factor to victory that is no fear of death
as it is better to die a martyr than to die a coward that I refer to as the
“spirit of the warrior”. In my opinion, reclaiming TAL AFAR from ISIS is a big
blow to ISIS because of its strategic location as TAL AFAR is at a crossroads
for ISIS fighters to reach parts of SYRIA that ISIS still controls and for ISIS
to try to smuggle arms and other supplies from TURKEY. In
my opinion, taking out ISIS in HAWIJA will be complicated because it is located
in KIRKUK that is known as a disputed territory because IRAQI KURDS believe HAWIJA
should be part of their nearby semi-autonomous region but IRAQI ARABS believe
it is part of IRAQ. That is, if the SHIITE Muslim Arabs stay in HAWIJA after
ISIS is expelled, this dilutes the KURDISH claims on the area. In addition, the
SUNNI Muslim tribal leaders in this area are worried that if the IRAQI KURDISH
military or the SHIITE Muslim militias take part in the battle against ISIS for
HAWIJA, then the SUNNI Muslim tribes will be attacked as well as they are
considered by many to be supporters of ISIS. In my opinion, taking out ISIS in AL
QAIM will be complicated because AL QAIM is located on an international border,
between IRAQ and SYRIA such that due to its strategic geographical location, AL
QAIM is by far the most secure city held by ISIS. Thus, both SYRIA and IRAQ
would have to coordinate a military campaign against ISIS in AL QAIM. However,
with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need
to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from
ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an
expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist
role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is
already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote
areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime
to bankroll future operations. Moving
on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel
stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and
sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears
to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval
from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much
political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition
relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA
managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s
forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY
managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel
factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s
two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as
guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty
International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison
in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of
President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of
negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad's future should be off the agenda for now and the main focus of
the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections as the primary
goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to implement a
long-term sustainable solution for peace. In
regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S.
President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK
cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes
was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people authorized by
President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now formally denied any
involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these chemical attacks and
has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be behind these chemical
attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the
moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while officials from TURKEY
that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA that backs the
current regime under President Bashar al-Assad watched as the cease-fire
agreement that establishes four de-escalation zones was violated once again. In
my opinion, although the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation
zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions
seem to continue to erupt, I believe that RUSSIAN and U.S. round-the-clock
discussions anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully
under control should be welcomed as a positive development in fully
implementing the de-escalation zones. In my opinion, it is better for RUSSIA
and the U.S. to try to work together to implement something in terms of
de-escalation zones as opposed to sitting back and insuring that both parties
achieve nothing. In regards to tensions de-escalating this week as the SYRIAN Army under the
control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group
HEZBOLLAH fighters captured several ISIS positions on strategic hilltops along
the SYRIAN-LEBANESE border, this strategic shift in focus by the SYRIAN Army on
ISIS is key to overall peace in the region as the only issue that everybody in
the region seem to agree upon is that ISIS needs to be contained to an
underground organization without any significant control of land particularly
along any major borders. Thus, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH
focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is
hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, the anticipated LEBANESE offensive to clear the ISIS extremists
from the LEBANESE side of the border which slowed down last week as ISIS asked
the SYRIAN Army and its ally HEZBOLLAH to let ISIS withdraw from SYRIA’s border
with LEBANON to the eastern province of DEIR AL-ZOR which the SYRIAN Army and
HEZBOLLAH agreed to in principal is a positive development. In my opinion, it
is best the best strategy to keep the war with ISIS within IRAQ and SYRIA to
minimize the risk of the entire middle east breaking out into wars with ISIS on
smaller fronts in order to minimize civilian casualties and destruction of more
territories. That being said, in this case allowing ISIS to retreat to DEIR
AL-ZOR makes sense as DEIR AL-ZOR province, which borders IRAQ to the east, is
almost entirely under ISIS control such that it is best to allow ISIS to
concentrate itself in territories already under ISIS control to minimize ISIS
reach around the remaining parts of the Middle East. Therefore, although I
agree with the LEBANESE government decision this week whereby 300 ISIS fighters
and their families were bussed over the border back into SYRIA, it is important
to note that the IRAQI military and U.S. led coalition were furious as these
300 ISIS fighters have now become their problem once again. However, in my
opinion, it is better to fight the ISIS devil in ISIS’s hell on earth of DEIR
AL-ZOR than to allow the ISIS devil entrance into LEBANESE heaven to
contaminate more territory like a plague turning more people mentally insane. In regards
to U.S. backed fighters surrounding the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to
oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA, capturing
RAQQA would be a major achievement in the battle against ISIS and help bring an
end to ISIS’s reign of terror trying to create a so-called Caliphate. In my
opinion, ISIS has used RAQQA for over three years to stage deadly attacks on
the Middle East and further overseas such that capturing RAQQA from ISIS would
significantly reduce ISIS’s terrorist capabilities in the future. I believe
that the coordinated efforts are paying off as the Syrian Democratic Forces
(SDF) have made yet another huge advance across the southern countryside of
RAQQA liberating approximately half of the RAQQA enclave. In my opinion, the
current strategy whereby U.S. airpower drops a barrage of bombs to suppress
ISIS movements behind and towards the front-lines within the city, while KURDISH
forces on the ground let loose with a barrage of small arms fire to break up ISIS
fighters at sight will be less effective moving forward as ISIS has now adopted
guerrilla warfare tactics including the intentional usage of innocent civilians
as human shields to avoid air strikes by ALLIANCE forces. In addition, the
increasing ISIS usage of suicide car bombs, snipers, drones and tunnels to slow
down SDF advances with the fight becoming a matter of life and death for both
sides has inevitably reduced the pace of advancement by the SDF in RAQQA. Unfortunately,
due to ISIS guerrilla warfare tactics, civilians caught up
in the battle for RAQQA are paying an unacceptable price as ALLIANCE forces may
be contravening international law with their intense air strikes. In my
opinion, relatively high civilian casualties are inevitable in this battle for
RAQQA such that the SDF has captured more than 60% of RAQQA and will probably
liberate RAQQA in its entirety by October because of the ALLIANCES intense
military campaign. Unfortunately, there is no other way to hit ISIS in RAQQA
than the current strategy of dropping a barrage of bombs to suppress ISIS movements behind and
towards the front-lines within the city, while KURDISH forces on the ground let
loose with a barrage of small arms fire. In my opinion, ISIS will kill the
civilians themselves before allowing them safe passage out of RAQQA such that
ISIS bears the ultimate responsibility for the deaths of innocent civilians as
ISIS has intentionally placed them in harms way such that there is no military
strategy in the world that can prevent the civilian casualties disarray. In summary,
I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 262” as the belief that IRAQ and
SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between
ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace albeit
new realities of geopolitical wrangling whereby there will likely be a
negotiated settlement between TURKEY and the U.S. similar to the Lewinsky
scandal whereby the TURKISH security guards will only admit to inappropriate
relationships with protestors due to jurisdictional conflicts in the
application of reasonable security measures under the circumstances in light of
perceived threats by TURKISH security guards who deemed the protestors to be
terrorists.
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