During the week ending on Sunday, July 16, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants. Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKEY has agreed to pay $ 2.5 billion for RUSSIA’s most advanced missile defense system in a deal that signals a shift away from the NATO military alliance that has linked TURKEY to the West for more than sixty years. Turkey has been in NATO since the early years of the COLD WAR, playing a key role as a frontline state bordering RUSSIA. However, ties with fellow NATO members have been strained in recent years, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pursuing a more assertive and independent foreign policy as war raged on in neighbouring IRAQ and SYRIA. In addition, tensions with the U.S. mounted over U.S. support for KURDISH militants in SYRIA that TURKEY considers terrorists. Lastly, the relationship with the EU soured as the EU pushed TURKEY back against what the EU sees as TURKEY’s increasingly autocratic governing shift. Meanwhile, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave an interview with the BBC whereby he stated that TURKEY would find it comforting if the EU formally states that TURKEY will not be accepted as an EU member because TURKEY can stand on its own two feet. As per Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the majority of TURKS do not want the EU anymore and believe the EU’s approach to TURKEY is insincere. Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and US-led ALLIANCE forces continued with their offensive against ISIS on MOSUL as IRAQI and ALLIED forces managed to push ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces appear to have liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety. As a friendly reminder, MOSUL is divided by the Tigris River with both east and west sides respectively making up about half of the population of MOSUL. Elite ALLIANCE forces managed to fight through an elaborate defense system formed by ISIS over the past two years, that kept ALLIANCE forces out while contemporaneously keeping the residents of MOSUL trapped in as captives, by recapturing east MOSUL in its entirety while being at the cusp of controlling west MOSUL in the short-term. On a positive note, this week in a series of lightning fast advances, ALLIANCE forces seized further control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS as IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS to the point of ISIS relinquishing control of MOSUL as the world watched the scenes of jubilation as IRAQI forces liberated the OLD MOSUL City from ISIS. Although the Godfather of ISIS, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, announced a caliphate from the Grand Mosque of AL-NURI in MOSUL three years ago, whereby the Godfather of ISIS made the perceived strength of the ISIS movement dependent on the expansion and preservation of that caliphate, the ALLIANCE has now shattered that dream such that the consequences of losing the ISIS caliphate is now psychologically crippling for ISIS. Thus, ISIS has now returned to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group as the Islamic State of IRAQ and SYRIA can no longer call itself a state as ISIS has lost all capacity to act as a state but rather ISIS now stands exposed as a GANGSTER sham. Moving on to SYRIA, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire peace process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks. Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN regime carried out the chemical attacks. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week although TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA signed an agreement at the SYRIAN cease-fire talks in KAZAKHSTAN several weeks ago calling for the creation of four de-escalation zones in SYRIA that represent the latest attempt by all key players in the region to reduce the violence in SYRIA including the commitment by President Bashar al-Assad that the SYRIAN air force will halt flights over the designated areas in SYRIA. Unfortunately, the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt albeit Russia and the U.S. continuing to discuss the situation in round-the-clock mode anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control. However, tensions seemed to deescalate slightly last week as Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed on a ceasefire deal covering south-western SYRIA during talks at the G20 summit of industrialised and developing nations in Hamburg, Germany. President Donald Trump took to social media to praise the deal, as it seems to be holding stating that now it is time to move forward in working constructively with Russia. On a positive note, U.S. backed fighters have surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, have cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. As a friendly reminder, nearly 200,000 people and 5,000 ISIS militants live in RAQQA such that the efforts to retake the SYRIAN city has now drawn dozens of U.S. military advisors deployed directly inside RAQQA city itself with U.S. Marines providing artillery support against ISIS from the surrounding countryside. The U.S. troops, many of them special operations forces, are working in an advisory, assistance and accompaniment role to support U.S. backed fighters as they battle ISIS. The U.S. troops are not in a direct combat role but are calling in air strikes and are working closer to the fight than did U.S. forces supporting the IRAQI military in MOSUL such that they are much more exposed to ISIS contact than those in IRAQ. In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders.
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Ironically, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures, as TURKEY has agreed to pay $ 2.5 billion for RUSSIA’s most advanced missile defense system in a deal that signals a shift away from the NATO military alliance that has linked TURKEY to the West for more than sixty years. In my opinion, the missile deal with RUSSIA is a clear sign that TURKEY is disappointed in the U.S. and Europe but until the advance is paid and the assembly begins, nothing is certain. Furthermore, the RUSSIAN system would not be compatible with other NATO defense systems but also the RUSSIAN system would not be subject to the same constraints imposed by the NATO alliance which prevents TURKEY from deploying such systems on the hotspots around the TURKISH region consisting of the ARMENIAN border, AEGEAN coast or GREEK border. However, the RUSSIAN deal would allow TURKEY to deploy the missile defense systems anywhere in TURKEY. In my opinion, for TURKEY, the critical success factor of any deal is the transfer of technology or know how as TURKEY wants to be able to produce its own advanced defense systems such that the Russian agreement to allow two of the S-400 batteries to be produced in TURKEY would serve that aim. In my opinion, RUSSIA has pounced on the opportunity to provide TURKEY with a viable alternative to NATO by giving TURKEY the opportunity to produce the defense system in TURKEY while being very well apprised that there are a lot of different levels of technology transfer such that any offer to TURKEY would probably be limited in terms of sophistication as for TURKEY to be able to copy the S-400 system, TURKEY would need to spend billions to create a whole new industry which most probably will not justify any incremental return on TURKISH investment in such a project. In regards to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stating that the majority of TURKS do not want the EU anymore and believe the EU’s approach to TURKEY is insincere, I believe that the difference in approach to governing whereby TURKEY is authoritarian as opposed to EU democratic cannot be bridged as TURKEY continues to live in a façade. That is, TURKEY believes that because its government was elected democratically to govern autocratically, by default TURKEY is a democratic government legally although in substance TURKEY has become authoritarian style. A perfect example of the TURKISH façade is the fact that although some 160 media outlets have been closed down in TURKEY and 2,500 journalists or media workers have been fired from their jobs, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists, making TURKEY the biggest jailer of journalists in the world, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan disputed this figure by stating that no one is jailed because of journalism in TURKEY such that just two journalists are actually jailed right now. Moving on to IRAQ, the recent successful attacks on ISIS by IRAQI security forces in MOSUL, has clearly sent the message to ISIS that it is just a matter of time until the ISIS Empire in IRAQ dies. Therefore, the ALLIANCE forces recapture of eastern MOSUL in its entirety has triggered a lightning fast momentum as ALLIANCE forces managed to seize control of most parts of Western MOSUL. In my opinion, the new IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after almost nine months of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS is drawing to a bitter end in the ruins of MOSUL’s historic quarter but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ’s future since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power. It is critical to remember that ISIS has slaughtered SUNNIS by the hundreds and displaced SUNNIS by the thousands but ISIS’s greatest hatred and violence was directed against those belonging to other faiths, mainly Shia Muslims, Christians, Yazidis and others. Furthermore, while ISIS ruled by terror, ISIS drew some support from SUNNIS who felt abandoned by an IRAQI government that they believed discriminated against SUNNIS and cared only for SHIAS such that it is these people that IRAQ must now bring onside if IRAQ is to have any hope of making this victory against ISIS last. In my opinion, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's future should be off the agenda for now and the main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace. In regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad watched as the cease-fire agreement that establishes four de-escalation zones was violated. In my opinion, although the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt, I believe that RUSSIAN and U.S. round-the-clock discussions anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control should be welcomed as a positive development in fully implementing the de-escalation zones. In my opinion, it is better for RUSSIA and the U.S. to try to work together to implement something in terms of de-escalation zones as opposed to sitting back and insuring that both parties achieve nothing. Thus, in regards to the Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump agreement on a ceasefire deal covering south-western SYRIA during talks at the G20 summit of industrialised and developing nations in Hamburg, Germany, showed that the US and Russia are able to work together in SYRIA such that they should continue to do so until this brutal and savage war is finally ended once and for all. In my opinion, while the new ceasefire deal covering southwestern SYRIA has several advantages, it falls short in complicated ways. The new ceasefire deal requires forces loyal to the SYRIAN government and those belonging to the non-terrorist opposition, generally under the umbrella of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), to halt attacks. However, foreign fighters, including forces mobilized by IRAN, are not allowed in areas near the SYRIAN borders while humanitarian aid is to flow into the area and refugees are to be permitted to return to their homes. Ironically, to make these things happen, U.S. President Donald Trump delegated responsibility to Russian President Vladimir Putin, relying on him both to quell the bloodshed throughout SYRIA and broker a political settlement that SYRIA cannot deliver on its own. Another impediment to implementation is that the new ceasefire deal also circumvented IRAN, ignoring on-the-ground realities and guaranteeing opposition from IRAN to support this new ceasefire deal. In my opinion, this new ceasefire deal represents a strategy that could offer benefits in the short term but will not resolve the larger SYRIAN cancer eating away at stability in the Middle East consisting of ingrained deep rooted hatred amongst rivals after years of atrocities in the name of survival leaving behind trails of blood triggering perpetual conflict revivals. In regards to U.S. backed fighters surrounding the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA, capturing RAQQA would be a major achievement in the battle against ISIS and help bring an end to ISIS’s reign of terror trying to create a so-called Caliphate. In my opinion, ISIS has used RAQQA for over three years to stage deadly attacks on the Middle East and further overseas such that capturing RAQQA from ISIS would significantly reduce ISIS’s terrorist capabilities in the future. I believe the U.S. needed to enter the fight in RAQQA more aggressively in an advisory, assistance and accompaniment role to support U.S. backed fighters as they battle ISIS who now seem to have gone completely mad after their humiliating defeat in MOSUL, IRAQ. In my opinion, scores of civilians are fleeing RAQQA traumatized with families torn apart and conditions worsening as the battle to oust ISIS intensifies knowing full well that ISIS will fight until death to defend their last stronghold of their self declared caliphate. Unfortunately, dead bodies all over the place in some of the more devastated neighbourhoods rotting in the heat on the streets and amongst debris with a repugnant, vial and nasty stench of a civil war from hell that nobody will ever be able to forget. In my opinion, for the estimated 30,000 to 50,000 people who remain trapped in RAQQA, with ISIS holding them against their will, shooting at those trying to escape, the realities of this civil war is that there are no holds barred including killing your own. In my opinion, ISIS and other various Radical Gangster Terrorist organizations consisting of HAYAT TAHRIR AL-SHAM, JABHAT FATEH AL-SHAM, AL QAEDA, NUSRA FRONT, AHRAR AL-SHAM and ALL FULL OF SHIT GANGSTER SHAM are all run old school GANGSTER style except that they all hide behind ISLAM as a smokescreen to convert their criminal organizations into religious sanctuaries. However, it is clear to me that none of these groups practice ISLAM, which translates to peace, but rather all of these groups practice their own self-created religion of capitalist opportunistic SHAM SCAM BRAINWASH RAM. Therefore, in my opinion, whenever there is an uprising by one of these Radical Gangster Terrorist organizations, there is a need for rapid intervention to contain the poison before it spreads and the mass at large become psychologically brain dead. In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 255” as the belief that MOSUL and RAQQA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace albeit ingrained deep rooted hatred amongst rivals after years of atrocities in the name of survival leaving behind trails of blood triggering perpetual conflict revivals as civil war spiralled out of control with no holds barred including killing your own.
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