Saturday, July 1, 2017
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 253
During the week ending on Sunday, July 2, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants. Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures while thousands journeyed by foot from TURKEY’s capital ANKARA to its largest city ISTANBUL with many carrying banners that say “ADALET” or “JUSTICE” literally crying that they have lost democracy in their own TURKISH country and want it back. Many protesters wore shirts bearing the images of NURIYE GULMEN and SEMIH OZAKCA, two teachers who were jailed last month after more than 70 days on a hunger strike over their arbitrary dismissal by a TURKISH government decree. As a friendly reminder, tens of thousands of people have been dismissed or detained in a broad TURKISH government crackdown in the aftermath of the failed “Coup D’État” last July after TURKEY declared a state of emergency. Furthermore, the TURKISH government’s purge went beyond the direct perpetrators of the failed “Coup D’État” to encompass a large swathe of TURKISH civil society, political opposition groups, academics, journalists and civil servants. In addition, TURKEY’s judiciary has been reshaped with a quarter of the TURKEY’s judges and prosecutors dismissed or jailed over alleged connections to Fethullah Gulen, the exiled TURKISH preacher whose opposition movement is widely believed in TURKEY to have orchestrated the failed “Coup D’État”. Also, senior opposition politicians have been imprisoned with Enis Berberoglu representing the latest lawmaker with the People’s Republican party (CHP) jailed for 25 years after leaking information to the press on TURKISH intelligence regarding the transfer of weapons across the border to SYRIAN rebels. It seems that this arrest of Enis Berberoglu sparked the JUSTICE march, a 450 kilometers walk, led by the CHP’s chairman, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, which set off from ANKARA on June 15, 2017. In summary, organisers hope the march will culminate in a large rally in INSTANBUL on July 9, 2017 whereby the supporters drawn along the way from across TURKISH society, despite the scorching summer heat, will force TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to return to the days of democratic reign and relinquish the authoritarian style operations of the TURKISH government since the failed “Coup D’État”. Contemporaneously with the unrest in TURKEY, QATAR’s ministry of defence announced the arrival of a new group of TURKISH armed forces to the TURKISH military base in QATAR where Turkey began its training mission last week. The TURKISH forces are set to take part in joint exercises in QATAR within the framework of a defence agreement signed between QATAR and TURKEY aimed at raising QATAR’s defence capabilities, supporting counter-terrorism efforts and maintaining security and stability in the region. As a friendly reminder, the deal’s approval came three days after Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain broke ties with QATAR and restricted access to land, sea and air routes over allegations that QATAR funds terrorism, an accusation QATAR rejects. In addition, Saudi Arabia and other Sunni-led nations have accused QATAR of inappropriately close ties with IRAN, a Shia-led country and Saudi Arabia’s primary opposition in the region.
Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and US-led ALLIANCE forces continued with their offensive against ISIS on MOSUL as IRAQI and ALLIED forces managed to push ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces appear to have liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety. As a friendly reminder, MOSUL is divided by the Tigris River with both east and west sides respectively making up about half of the population of MOSUL. Elite ALLIANCE forces managed to fight through an elaborate defense system formed by ISIS over the past two years, that kept ALLIANCE forces out while contemporaneously keeping the residents of MOSUL trapped in as captives, by recapturing east MOSUL in its entirety while being at the cusp of controlling west MOSUL in the short-term. On a positive note, this week in a series of lightning fast advances, ALLIANCE forces seized further control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS as IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS with IRAQI government troops finally capturing the ruined AL-NURI Mosque and AL-HADBA minaret, at the heart of ISIS’s de facto capital MOSUL, with IRAQI Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi, declaring ISIS’s self-declared caliphate ended after more than eight months of grinding urban warfare. Furthermore, IRAQI troops expect the long battle for MOSUL to end in the coming days as remaining ISIS fighters are surrounded in just a half dozen or so neighbourhoods of the Old MOSUL City.
Moving on to SYRIA, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire peace process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks. Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN regime carried out the chemical attacks. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week although TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA signed an agreement at the SYRIAN cease-fire talks in KAZAKHSTAN two weeks ago calling for the creation of four de-escalation zones in SYRIA that represent the latest attempt by all key players in the region to reduce the violence in SYRIA including the commitment by President Bashar al-Assad that the SYRIAN air force will halt flights over the designated areas in SYRIA. Unfortunately, the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt albeit Russia and the U.S. continuing to discuss the situation in round-the-clock mode anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control. However, tensions seemed to escalate this week as International chemical weapons inspectors confirmed that the nerve agent sarin was used in April’s deadly chemical attack in Syria’s IDLIB province. The attack, in which 89 people died, was one of the deadliest in Syria in recent years and prompted the U.S. military to launch 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles at a Syrian airbase with the White House issuing a public warning this week that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad would pay a heavy price for using chemical weapons. On a positive note, U.S. backed fighters have surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, have cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. As a friendly reminder, nearly 200,000 people and 5,000 ISIS militants live in RAQQA such that the efforts to retake the SYRIAN city comes as ISIS faces a likely defeat on another front as IRAQI forces are closing in on completely seizing MOSUL, ISIS’s last major stronghold in IRAQ.
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Ironically, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures, as the TURKISH opposition march that set off from ANKARA on June 15, 2017 continued to gain momentum and speed as organisers hope the march will culminate in a large rally in INSTANBUL on July 9, 2017. In my opinion, it is extremely impressive how the TURKISH opposition movement has drawn supporters along the way from across TURKISH society, despite the scorching summer heat, and I believe this march will force TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to return to the days of democratic reign and relinquish the authoritarian style operations of the TURKISH government since the failed “Coup D’État”. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will eventually find himself with his back up against the wall by his own people as the TURKISH authoritarian regime has now entered the realm of squeezing blood out of a rock which will either lead to a return to democracy or another civil war. In my opinion, the governing AKP has taken its crackdown measures under the auspices of a state of emergency way too far such that TURKEY is now at a crossroads in its history whereby it will either return to democratic rule or the opposition will resort to tactics of civil war that will inevitably destabilize TURKEY and return TURKEY to the days of military rule which is not sustainable under the method of operations of the evolved TURKISH middle class that have developed deductive reasoning techniques that I like to refer to as New School. In regards to TURKEY rejecting a key demand by several ARAB states involved in a major dispute with QATAR to shut down TURKEY’s military base in the small GULF country, I agree with TURKEY’s decision to side with QATAR in this dispute where tiny, gas-rich QATAR found itself on the defense against its much larger neighbours consisting of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. In my opinion, TURKEY made the right decision to side with QATAR as otherwise QATAR would have been crushed by the sheer might of its neighbours and from my point-of-view, it looks like QATAR’s neighbours are trying to force QATAR to bend to their will on a much broader set of issues. Furthermore, there appears to be ulterior motives behind the moves of QATAR’s neighbours who want QATAR to align itself politically, economically and otherwise with the Gulf Cooperation Council, a regional club that has focused on countering the influence of IRAN. In my opinion, QATAR has been supplied with an impossible list to be met because the list interferes with QATAR’s foreign policy while QATAR rightfully considers QATAR’s foreign policy a sovereign matter that is not negotiable. However, this further reflects the complexity of the geopolitical landscape in the region as countries struggle to contain their own internal disputes such as TURKEY dealing with a massive protest march by opposition groups within TURKEY while being forced to intervene in neighbours disputes with TURKEY siding with QATAR to in essence attempt to find some sort of equilibrium in the greater middle eastern region. In my opinion, this new reality of perpetual juggling of personal, financial and political interests has become the new method of operations in the middle east to deal with pent-up frustrations and never ending disputes and conflicts in an attempt to control the circus act before it spirals out of control and the entire region is engulfed in civil wars.
Moving on to IRAQ, the recent successful attacks on ISIS by IRAQI security forces in MOSUL, has clearly sent the message to ISIS that it is just a matter of time until the ISIS Empire in MOSUL dies. However, the IRAQI led troops on the ground are essentially forced to fight ISIS style, which is slow and brutal for any other type of heavy artillery attack on ISIS, will result in significant collateral damage in terms of human casualties. Therefore, the ALLIANCE forces recapture of eastern MOSUL in its entirety has triggered a lightning fast momentum as ALLIANCE forces managed to seize control of major parts of Western MOSUL. In my opinion, the new IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally seize the nearly 850-year-old GRAND AL-NURI Mosque from where ISIS proclaimed their caliphate nearly three years ago represents a huge symbolic victory. In my opinion, the return of the AL-NURI Mosque and AL-HADBA Minaret to the IRAQI nation marks the end of the ISIS reign of terror in IRAQ. That is, the fall of MOSUL in effect marks the end of the IRAQI half of the ISIS caliphate, although the ISIS group still controls territory west and south of MOSUL city, ruling over hundreds of thousands of people. In my opinion, the ISIS Empire in IRAQ is slowly but surely falling as ISIS is now hanging on by a thread to its last ISIS strongholds in about half a dozen neighbourhoods around MOSUL. In my opinion, assuming that the KURDISH peshmerga, IRAQI army, SHIITE militia and some SUNNI militia forces continue to overlook their differences and stick together, ISIS will inevitably be decimated in IRAQ, although ISIS will likely survive as an incognito terrorist organization throughout the world. In my opinion, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations.
Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's future should be off the agenda for now and the main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace.
In regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad watched as the cease-fire agreement signed last week that establishes four de-escalation zones was violated. In my opinion, although the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt, I believe that RUSSIAN and U.S. round-the-clock discussions anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control should be welcomed as a positive development in fully implementing the de-escalation zones. In my opinion, it is better for RUSSIA and the U.S. to try to work together to implement something in terms of de-escalation zones as opposed to sitting back and insuring that both parties achieve nothing. Thus, in regards to the International chemical weapons inspectors confirming that the nerve agent sarin was used in April’s deadly chemical attack in Syria’s IDLIB province in which 89 people died, representing one of the deadliest attacks in Syria in recent years that prompted the U.S. military to launch 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles at a Syrian airbase with the White House issuing a public warning this week that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad would pay a heavy price for using chemical weapons, time will tell what the heavy price will be. In my opinion, the heavy price will likely be a warrant for the arrest of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on the basis of war crimes in IDLIB that probably won’t be worth more than the paper it is written on as RUSSIA will not hand over Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to the war crimes tribunal. Therefore, in my opinion, we will most likely see excessive legal wrangling in the future regarding the IDLIB massacre producing an arrest warrant for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that in essence will never be served as long as long as Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is in power as the U.S. can threaten ramifications to their hearts content but to the extent RUSSIA backs Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, all threats will be like echoes in the wind eventually getting lost amongst the mountains. In regards to U.S. backed fighters surrounding the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA, capturing RAQQA would be a major achievement in the battle against ISIS and help bring an end to ISIS’s reign of terror trying to create a so-called Caliphate. In my opinion, ISIS has used Raqqa for over three years to stage deadly attacks on the Middle East and further overseas such that capturing RAQQA from ISIS would significantly reduce ISIS’s terrorist capabilities in the future. In my opinion, ISIS and other various Radical Gangster Terrorist organizations consisting of HAYAT TAHRIR AL-SHAM, JABHAT FATEH AL-SHAM, AL QAEDA, NUSRA FRONT, AHRAR AL-SHAM and ALL FULL OF SHIT GANGSTER SHAM are all run old school GANGSTER style except that they all hide behind ISLAM as a smokescreen to convert their criminal organizations into religious sanctuaries. However, it is clear to me that none of these groups practice ISLAM, which translates to peace, but rather all of these groups practice their own self-created religion of capitalist opportunistic SHAM SCAM BRAINWASH RAM. Therefore, in my opinion, whenever there is an uprising by one of these Radical Gangster Terrorist organizations, there is a need for rapid intervention to contain the poison before it spreads and the mass at large become psychologically brain dead.
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