World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 242

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 242

During the week ending on Sunday, April 16, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP finally continued to de-escalate slightly more this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on the upcoming referendum on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby if the majority of the TURKISH population back the referendum, TURKEY’s parliamentary system will be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. The referendum would also allow President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who served as Prime Minister from 2003 to 2014 before becoming President to stay on as President until 2029. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes would give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants. Nonetheless, TURKEY appears to be a country divided ahead of the referendum determining TURKEY’s future direction under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with the governing AKP campaign banners plastered on nearly every corner, high-rise and billboard with humongous head shots of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Binali Yildirim lining the streets.

Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and US-led ALLIANCE forces continued with their offensive against ISIS on MOSUL as IRAQI and ALLIED forces managed to push ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces appear to have liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety. As a friendly reminder, MOSUL is divided by the Tigris River with both east and west sides respectively making up about half of the population of MOSUL. Elite ALLIANCE forces managed to fight through an elaborate defense system formed by ISIS over the past two years, that kept ALLIANCE forces out while contemporaneously keeping the residents of MOSUL trapped in as captives, by recapturing east MOSUL in its entirety while being at the cusp of controlling west MOSUL in the short-term. On a positive note, this week in a series of lightning fast advances, ALLIANCE forces seized further control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS with ISIS now only controlling around 7% of IRAQ while ISIS effectively controlled around 40% of IRAQ during its peak in 2014. It now appears imminent that a full recapture of MOSUL, the de facto capital of the ISIS self proclaimed caliphate nearly three years ago, would end ISIS’s dreams of a cross-border state with SYRIA. However, the price to pay in terms of human casualties for the liberation of IRAQ from ISIS control has been immense with the packed morgue in MOSUL providing a clear indication of the toll of collateral damage from the liberation of ISIS controlled territories.

Moving on to SYRIA, SYRIAN government forces have retaken full control of ALEPPO, since the uprising began, after nearly six years of bloody fighting for Syria’s most populous city and SYRIA’s economic hub that has been the most prized and fiercely contested city throughout the Syrian conflict. As a friendly reminder, since the Syrian army’s assault against rebel held ALEPPO began in late September of 2016, RUSSIAN and SYRIAN government bombardments killed more than 1,000 people, including over 250 children while injuring over 5,000. Now, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire peace process. US Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, said that relations with RUSSIA are at a low point, as there is a low level of trust between the two countries, after meetings held directly in RUSSIA that could not bridge a deepening diplomatic divide over the chemical attacks in SYRIA. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks such that it is obvious that the working level of confidence in Russian and American relations, especially at the military level under President Donald Trump, has not improved but rather has worsened. The U.S. accused RUSSIA and SYRIA of carrying out a confusion campaign over who was responsible for the chemical attacks while Russian President Vladimir Putin made comparisons between the U.S. response to these chemical attacks and the U.S. 2003 invasion of Iraq, calling it a “tedious” story. Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN regime carried out the chemical attacks. RUSSIA claims that the SYRIAN regime is being unfairly blamed for the chemical attacks to the point where RUSSIAN President, Vladimir Putin stated that the chemical attacks were “simply staging” and a provocation by rebel forces within SYRIA who were plotting more chemical attacks, including near the capital of DAMASCUS, that the rebels intend to pin on the SYRIAN regime.

In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders.

Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP continued to de-escalate further this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on the upcoming referendum on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby if the majority of the TURKISH population back the referendum, TURKEY’s parliamentary system will be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. In my opinion, this would be a very dangerous step backwards for democratic principals to be upheld in TURKEY as the governing AKP has already been ruling with an authoritarian dictatorship style ever since the failed “Coup D’État” in July of 2016. In my opinion, those planning to vote on the YES side are democratically delusional but they seem to have been effectively brainwashed to believe that voting for the YES side in the referendum would enable President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to stabilize a TURKISH nation with a sluggish economy, a huge refugee crisis and a brewing resurgence of the 30 plus years conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Meanwhile, the NO side appears to be completely stressed out as they do not see a bright future for TURKEY if all power becomes even more concentrated in the hands of the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In my opinion, the magnitude of control of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has already been exhibited during this referendum with the governing AKP significantly restricting the KURDISH HDP’s ability to campaign for the NO side as the song of the HDP has been forbidden and the buses used for HDP party members have not been allowed to drive near the NO campaign area in the TURKISH city center. Meanwhile, the governing AKP has used all of the possibilities of the state to propagandize for the YES side including the usage of state cars, public transport and tax funds. In my opinion, the crushing of the KURDISH HDP under the existing political system clearly demonstrates that the governing AKP already has a stranglehold on the TURKISH government such that a YES win would in essence grant President Recep Tayyip Erdogan absolute and complete control of TURKEY with virtually no opposition. Given that five thousand KURDISH HDP supporters have already been jailed, including their leaders, Selahattin Demirtas and Figen Yuksekdag who have been imprisoned since November 2016, based on accusations that the KURDISH HDP is supporting the PKK, which is designated by the US and the EU as a terrorist organization, I can only imagine the further decimation of any and all opposition movements assuming a win by the YES side during the upcoming referendum. However, in my opinion, it may very well be the democratic free will of the majority of the TURKISH people that desires to have an authoritarian dictatorship style of leadership in place whereby there is only one voice such that there is minimal disagreement as the majority imposes its will upon all minorities.

Moving on to IRAQ, the recent successful attacks on ISIS by IRAQI security forces in MOSUL, has clearly sent the message to ISIS that it is just a matter of time until the ISIS Empire in MOSUL dies. However, the IRAQI led troops on the ground are essentially forced to fight ISIS style, which is slow and brutal for any other type of heavy artillery attack on ISIS, will result in significant collateral damage in terms of human casualties. Therefore, the ALLIANCE forces recapture of eastern MOSUL in its entirety has triggered a lightning fast momentum as ALLIANCE forces managed to seize control of major parts of Western MOSUL although in my opinion, the last of the fighting will most probably be a lot more difficult. In my opinion, ISIS will cling on to the oldest parts of MOSUL city where streets are narrow making it hard to manoeuvre military convoys and thus increasing the risk of ambushes and civilian casualties. Therefore, it is not surprising to see that ALLIANCE forces are having a difficult time to fully retake control of central MOSUL’s OLD CITY but this struggle is unfortunately necessary to secure the entire province of MOSUL such that patience is of utmost importance as ALLIANCE forces must continue with their relentless yet prudent attacks until ALL ISIS snipers have been eliminated. In regards to recent statistics that indicate that ISIS now only controls around 7% of IRAQ while ISIS effectively controlled around 40% of IRAQ during its peak in 2014, this illustrates the success of the ALLIANCE in the war against ISIS albeit the excessive pain suffered at the hands of relentless ISIS opposition. However, in my opinion, IRAQ should not be abandoned after the imminent recapture of MOSUL but rather ALLIANCE forces should stay the course in IRAQ until the very end when ISIS is eliminated from every visible corner of IRAQ. In my opinion, ISIS is like a malignant cancer whereby if given the opportunity, ISIS will resurge and multiply exponentially to strike once again at the jugular of IRAQ such that the mission of the ALLIANCE in IRAQ needs to be to wipe the slate clean to minimize any future ISIS throat slicing bleeds. In my opinion, ISIS still represents an imminent threat that should not be taken lightly as ISIS still controls the large towns of HAWIJAH and TAL AFAR, as well as the remote areas along the border with SYRIA in western IRAQ and of course in Syria itself, ISIS still holds the city of RAQQA and other areas. In regards to the packed morgue in MOSUL providing a clear indication of the toll of collateral damage from the liberation of ISIS controlled territories, in my opinion without significant blood being spilled, IRAQ would never have been liberated from ISIS control such that the death and destruction was unfortunately unavoidable such that it should not diminish the glory of the imminent victory over ISIS. In my opinion, assuming that the KURDISH peshmerga, IRAQI army, SHIITE militia and some SUNNI militia forces continue to overlook their differences and stick together, ISIS will inevitably be decimated in IRAQ, although ISIS will likely survive as an incognito terrorist organization throughout the world. In my opinion, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations.

Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's future should be off the agenda for now and the main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace.

In regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. However, in my opinion, these strikes by the U.S. were justified, at that time, on the basis that the strikes had a limited intent, which was to deter the usage of chemical weapons, and were part of President, Donald Trump’s so-called AMERICA FIRST policy. That is, the U.S. needed to send President Bashar al-Assad a clear, concise and direct message that chemical weapons attacks by the SYRIAN Armed Forces will not be tolerated and will be reciprocated accordingly. That being said, RUSSIA has now formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be behind these chemical attacks on their own people. In regards to the formal accusations by RUSSIA that the chemical attacks were “simply staging” and a provocation by rebel forces within SYRIA to pin the SYRIAN regime, I am not surprised with this response as the situation in SYRIA resembles the cold war era whereby nobody will ever take any responsibility for evil sins, but will twist, turn and manipulate any and all underlying facts and circumstances to have their respective enemies pinned. In my opinion, the finger pointing game being played between the U.S. and RUSSIA is consistent with the new geopolitical stage set by the mass whereby politics has becomes a dirty game of try to catch me if you can, but until you find concrete evidence beyond a shadow of a doubt to nail the specific guilty parties with brass, you can kiss my candy ass.

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 242” as the belief that MOSUL victory is critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace albeit chemical weapons unleashed by ASSAD on SYRIAN civilians that were blamed by RUSSIA on rebels attacking their own mass and thus sending the U.S. a message back of catch me if you can, but until then you can kiss my candy ass.

Spirit of John Lennon – Kurdish Guerrilla Song:

April 16, 2017