World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 344

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 344” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as the SAUDI ARABIAN royal adviser, Saud al-Qahtani, who allegedly oversaw the brutal murder of Jamal Khashoggi, is not among the suspects on trial for his death, as Crown Prince MBS appears to still be holding on to Saud al-Qahtani and does not seem to be willing to sacrifice him, as birds of a feather stick together, such that even when a top security advisor, seems to have been implicated in a crime, dominant personal, financial and political interests, such as those under Crown Prince MBS, turn a blind eye, as past loyalty, fidelity and allegiance seems to overshadow current scandalous demeanours, in catch me if you can theatrical spectacles, worthy of Academy Award winning aspiring dreamers, while Crown Prince MBS has cemented his position as U.S. President Donald Trump’s closest ally in the MIDDLE EAST, becoming both the greatest ally of the U.S. and one of their biggest problems, as Crown Prince MBS has now become widely known as an autocrat, a hothead and a disruptor, like a younger SAUDI ARABIAN version of U.S. President Donald Trump, except that Crown Prince MBS has fewer checks and balances, such that the U.S. seems to be facing an all-or-nothing choice, consisting of standing by Crown Prince MBS or walking away from the relationship entirely, albeit a third alternative called tough love will probably suffice, as when you cannot walk away from a critical relationship, you can improve the behaviours of the counterparty, such that U.S. President Donald Trump should make it clear that he’s not happy with some of Crown Prince MBS’s decisions, while backing up his criticisms with both words and actions like a mentor.

TURKEY News

During the week ending on Sunday, March 31, 2019, the focus in TURKEY seemed to shift to the TURKISH struggling economy, largely attributable to a lack of confidence by foreign investors, due largely to TURKEY’s repressive crackdown measures on all opposition movements. It is important to note that, several months ago, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan allowed TURKEY’s two-year state of emergency to come to an end but as trials of dissidents and journalists continue, human rights campaigners continue to pressure TURKEY to do more to reverse a suffocating crackdown on free speech. Critics claim that the state of emergency, in place since the failed “Coup D’État” in July of 2016 that killed 250 people and wounded 1,400, has been used to detain opponents of the governing AKP for lengthy periods of time without trial to intimidate dissidents and to prosecute media outlets. That is, more than 120,000 people in the police, military, academia, media and civil service have been detained or dismissed from their jobs, over their alleged links to Fethullah Gulen, who is the exiled TURKISH preacher based now in the U.S., who TURKEY blames as the brains behind the operations for the failed “Coup D’État”.

However, the behaviours of TURKEY’s governing AKP seem to be taking their toll on the TURKISH economy as turbulent politics have resulted in economic turmoil whereby the sliding TURKISH Lira set-off alarm bells across TURKEY as businesses struggle to cope with the financial impacts of a declining TURKISH Lira. Unfortunately, TURKEY’s fragile economy recently received another economic blow when TURKEY’s growth forecasts for this year and next year were dramatically reduced, triggering further drops in the value of the TURKISH Lira. It is important to note that TURKISH Finance Minister Berat Albayrak stated that growth would be 3.8% this year and 2.3% in 2019, both revised downwards from the initial forecasts of 5.5%. Ironically, TURKEY’s finance minister insisted that TURKEYS’s economy did not face any significant risks, despite the TURKISH Lira plunging to its lowest point after new economic data was released that points to the risk of a sharp economic slowdown in TURKEY. However, the drop in the TURKISH Lira that had lost about 40% of its value against the U.S. dollar this year, hitting severe lows in October’ 2018, after TURKEY’s economic confidence index also hit extreme lows, has recovered slightly since. It is important to note that U.S. rating agency Moody’s downgraded 20 TURKISH financial institutions due to increased risks of a sudden shift in investor sentiment that could leave TURKISH banks struggling to attract foreign financing that keeps TURKISH banking sector liquid.

Thus, TURKISH banks that borrowed heavily abroad now face the near impossible task of refinancing short-term debt in expensive U.S. Dollars and E.U. Euros. It is important to note that around $180 billion in TURKISH foreign debt matures from now until the end of July of 2019, of which approximately $145 billion is owed by the private sector, particularly TURKISH banks, which borrowed heavily abroad in foreign denominated currencies. Therefore, TURKEY will be hit with a currency mismatch as TURKEY mostly earns returns on investments in TURKISH Lira, while it has to payback its foreign currency denominated debt by converting a plummeting TURKISH Lira, resulting in significantly higher debt payments. However, this week TURKISH Finance Minister, Berat Albayrak, continued to focus on the TURKISH economy, as TURKEY’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate on hold sticking to its promise to stand firm on inflation even as the economy suffers a sharp slowdown in growth. Furthermore, it is important to note that the TURKISH economy officially sank into recession in the fourth quarter of 2018, which is obviously highly inconvenient to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is vigorously campaigning for March 31 municipal elections. However, TURKISH Finance Minister, Berat Albayrak, stated that the TURKISH economy had survived the most serious speculative attack in its history such that the current data for 2019 shows the TURKISH economy is making a rapid recovery, such that the decline in economic growth is temporary. Furthermore, this week, TURKISH authorities focused on blasting U.S. institutions such as U.S. bank JPMorgan Chase who have critical views of TURKEY’s economic policies although the prospects of an investment backlash are unlikely although TURKEY has launched a formal probe into this matter. TURKEY was reacting to what TURKEY perceives as misleading and manipulative advice from U.S. institutions to sell the TURKISH Lira. Thus, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened a very heavy price for foreign groups trying to provoke TURKEY. Hence, subsequently, the TURKISH Lira reversed some of its losses after TURKEY’s central bank announced a series of operations to reduce market liquidity, while keeping the official interest rate steady, as TURKISH banks commenced selling large quantities of foreign currency in an apparent effort to support the TURKISH Lira.

Thus, TURKISH Finance Minister Berat Albayrak who declared war on soaring inflation and called on TURKEY’s businesses to cut prices by 10% to counter runaway inflation, that has driven up the price of everything from food to fuel, and sent inflation to 25% during October’ 2018, its highest in 15 years continued with the firm stance of implementing this policy. Furthermore, TURKEY has already resorted to the seizure of numerous companies that have been accused of conspiring against the TURKISH government with speculation, opportunism and stockpiling. Furthermore, TURKISH police have also raided businesses, based on accusations of speculation, and shops and supermarkets, based on allegations of price gouging. Thus, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is calling on consumers to report shops and businesses for excessive price hikes in order for the police to investigate and resolve accordingly. However, the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK), the TURKISH watchdog, stated that the TURKISH banking sector’s sound and healthy structure continues at full strength. Therefore, the TURKISH banking sector’s current capital structure is fully capable of withstanding asset quality-driven risks.

Thus, the main TURKISH opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, TURKEY’s main opposition CHP leader obviously accused the governing AKP of running unsuccessful economic policies, while adding that TURKEY possesses the potential to overcome current economic problems under prospective CHP rule. Thus, the CHP leader obviously focused on holding the governing AKP responsible for the current economic crisis, while warning prospective voters to not allow the governing AKP to hide behind foreign powers, shopkeepers, terrorists or anyone else, as the governing AKP who have single handed run TURKEY for the last 17 years should be held responsible. Furthermore, the opposition CHP stressed this week that TURKISH leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan who won a fresh mandate with significant new powers, in a double victory in both parliamentary and presidential elections last summer, now, less than a year into his five-year term, faces a sort of evaluation on his management of TURKEY. Furthermore, opponents are working together in an effort to deliver a rebuke to him and his governing AKP in local elections on March 31, 2019. That is, the second largest opposition group in parliament, the People’s Democratic Party (HDP), which stresses minority rights, has opted to sit out of important municipal races beyond its stronghold in the southeast, where TURKEY’s Kurdish minority is concentrated. Hence, the HDP has chosen to support candidates from an opposition bloc led by the larger CHP resulting in more competitive races in the capital of ANKARA and the commercial district of ISTANBUL resulting in a serious threat to the 25-year rule by the governing AKP. Obviously, further accentuating the pressure on TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was the announcement that the TURKISH economy has fallen into recession for the first time in a decade, as the timing could not be worse for the governing AKP, with critical local elections scheduled for March 31, 2019. Thus, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is already laying the groundwork to blame the ailing TURKISH economy on outside foreign powers, such as George Soros, who is the famous Hungarian Jew that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan previously blamed for apparently conspiring against the TURKISH government to divide and shatter the TURKISH nation. Nonetheless, two opinion polls suggest TURKISH economic woes will sway the outcome of the upcoming TURKISH elections, with the ailing TURKISH economy and high unemployment at the top of the list of what people see as TURKEY’s primary problems.

Unfortunately, TURKEY’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan listened to businessman Mehmet Naci Topsakal in February of 2019 when he stated that when it comes to money, TURKEY does not have any serious problems, while blaming the TURKISH housing agency that oversees hundreds of projects nationwide for ruining TURKEY, as his microphone was on and thus this confidential conversation quickly became public knowledge. However, the realities of the economic situation in TURKEY is what the rest of the business sector already knew, which is that countless companies across TURKEY are struggling in a multitude of ways after last year’s horrendous TURKISH Lira meltdown. It is important to note that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is aware of the damage that this weak economic backdrop could inflict on his governing AKP in local elections to be held on March 31, 2019 such that insiders admit that the governing AKP is anxious about losing control of ANKARA, TURKEY’s capital. Obviously, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Berat Albayrak, his son-in-law and finance minister have taken unconventional approaches to limit the pain for voters, from encouraging TURKISH state-owned banks to lend more money to pressurising retailers to hold down prices, as both insist that TURKEY has now left its troubled days behind. However, major investors still remain unconvinced as investor sentiment is still shaky, as there are still tensions with the U.S. and severe problems in the TURKISH corporate world, that are likely to limit TURKEY’s ability to return to its once fast-paced years of economic growth under the governing AKP. It is important to note that the economic concerns of middle-class voters, whose purchasing power has been severely hit, will ultimately determine the electoral outcome, as they may very well turn against the governing AKP. That is, a recent poll by the opposition CHP in 29 provinces found that about 60% of voters are frustrated over TURKEY’s economic decline.

However, TURKEY’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued to warn the SYRIAN regime, RUSSIA and IRAN that an all-out military offensive on IDLIB could lead to a disastrous outcome for TURKEY by triggering a new wave of refugees heading towards the TURKISH borders. Thus, the world has been bracing for weeks for the Bashar al-Assad Syrian Arab Army (SAA) to attack IDLIB, where around 2.5 million civilians are living in opposition-held territory with no clear escape routes if fighting escalates. Hence, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reached a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA, in recent months, to prevent an all-out attack on IDLIB, as TURKEY is worried that an attack on IDLIB will trigger a mass exodus of refugees fleeing towards the TURKISH border. It is important to note that the weapons, which have entered SYRIA in large quantities, in recent months, including ammunition and GRAD rockets, clearly indicated that TURKEY would be providing complete TURKISH military support, for a long drawn-out battle over IDLIB, if necessary, that functioned as an effective deterrent from a full scale attack by the SAA and its RUSSIAN and IRANIAN backed allies. However, in recent months, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which includes former AL-QAEDA terrorist fighters among its ranks, seems to be attempting to consolidate power in northern SYRIA with waves of arrests of civilians during the TURKEY and RUSSIAN brokered ceasefire.

It is important to note that HTS signed a ceasefire deal with what was left of the rival NLF alliance that sees HTS supremacy and unison of the region under a HTS led administration. However, the SAA still appears to be preparing for a full fledge assault on IDLIB, as the war between the SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad and rebel forces appear to be entering the final phase, as the U.S. announces its intention for a complete withdrawal from SYRIA. Thus, the Free Syrian Police (FSP), a symbol of SYRIA’s revolution and a recipient of international support, ceased operations following the HTS takeover of IDLIB. However, civilians, members of civil society and activists, who saw the unarmed and independent FSP as a military force for good, see the decision by the FSP to disband as a shocking surprise. Thus, the RUSSIAN foreign ministry announced that the situation was rapidly deteriorating such that IDLIB was almost under the full control of the HTS rebel group, previously linked to al-Qaeda that should trigger a coordinated military effort between RUSSIA and TURKEY to stabilise the situation in IDLIB. However, this week, it appears that RUSSIA and TURKEY are reinforcing their respective positions in IDLIB, as a final imminent battle appears to be inevitable. It is important to note that after 8 years of bloodshed that has killed over 500,000 people and forced over 7.5 million people from their homes, IDLIB, in the northwest of SYRIA is the last opposition stronghold, including extremist terrorist elements such as HTS to existing President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Thus, for the 2.5 million people trapped in IDLIB, with no way out, the tense ceasefire still currently in effect could very well be the only difference between life and death, albeit the de-escalation zone in SYRIA is witnessing ongoing and large-scale cease-fire violations by multiple parties. Unfortunately, escalations in fighting this week have resulted in continued civilian casualties as the RUSSIAN Air Force used their Mi-28NM helicopter gunships during an attack against the HTS rebels. Ironically, it appears that the Mi-28NM attack helicopter is being field-tested in SYRIA before the first test batch of the new all weather; day and night two-seater helicopters commence to be delivered by the RUSSIAN Defence Ministry. Unfortunately, two children were killed and five others injured in SAA regime artillery shelling on a school in northwestern IDLIB that was alleged to be harbouring terrorist.

However, in an unusual chain of events that triggered a change of fate, international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY continues, whereby the SAUDI ARABIAN officials had promised consequences for anyone, even a member of the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family, found responsible for the assassination. Thus, TURKEY has led a relentless campaign to hold SAUDI ARABIA accountable, as TURKISH authorities have allowed media leaks to the international press. Furthermore, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan formally denounced SAUDI ARABIA for initially trying to deny involvement in the killing, as after weeks of lying, SAUDI ARABIA finally admitted that Jamal Khashoggi was dead, such that as per TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, covering up this kind of savagery will hurt the conscience of all humanity.

Nonetheless, in an unusual twist of fate, CIA Director Gina Haspel obviously presented a solid case behind her conclusion that there is a high level of confidence that Crown Prince MBS was complicit in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. Thus, CIA Director Gina Haspel garnered extensive support for her conclusion from both top Republican and top Democratic leaders to the point that the entire Senate Committee voted unanimously to overrule U.S. President Donald Trump by officially blaming Crown Prince MBS for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. Thus, the official response from the SAUDI ARABIAN Foreign Ministry was that Saudi Arabia categorically rejects any interference in its internal affairs, any and all accusations, in any manner, that disrespect its leadership, and any attempts to undermine its sovereignty or diminish its stature. Thus, in a decisive move by Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family, they have ceased offering new versions of their own account of what transpired, with the final official SAUDI ARABIAN version remaining, that the SAUDI ARABIAN assassins killed Jamal Khashoggi with an injection of sedatives, and then immediately set to work dismembering him and hiding his remains. Hence, SAUDI ARABIA put the Jamal Khashoggi murder suspects on trial, whereby the prosecutor, SAUDI ARABIA’s attorney general, demanded the death penalty for 5 of the 11 suspects.

Nonetheless, Agnes Callamard, the U.N. special investigator on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions who is heading an independent international inquiry into the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, released her preliminary conclusions. Thus, the official statement by the U.N. that the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, was a brutal and premeditated killing, which was planned by SAUDI ARABIAN officials, was expected. However, a further allegation from the U.N. inquiry that SAUDI ARABIA seriously undermined TURKEY’s efforts to investigate the murder was surprising. That is, Agnes Callamard stated that woefully inadequate time and access was granted to TURKISH investigators to conduct a professional and effective crime-scene examination and search required by international standards for investigation. In particular, TURKEY was not allowed into the SAUDI ARABIAN consul where Jamal Khashoggi was killed for 13 days.

Therefore, a group of U.S. Democratic senators introduced a bill that would require the leader of the U.S. intelligence community to submit an unclassified report on the death of SAUDI ARABIAN journalist Jamal Khashoggi. According to the bill, the report must include identification of those who carried out, participated in, ordered, or were otherwise complicit in or responsible for the death of Jamal Khashoggi. However, the CIA has already concluded that Crown Prince MBS personally ordered Jamal Khashoggi’s murder while U.S. President Donald Trump has steered clear of blaming the SAUDI ARABIAN leader on the basis of a lack of substantive evidence, clearly signalling that he will not take strong action against SAUDI ARABIA, a key U.S. ally, or Crown Prince MBS. Nonetheless, this week, the SAUDI ARABIAN royal adviser, Saud al-Qahtani, who allegedly oversaw the brutal murder of Jamal Khashoggi, is not among the suspects on trial for his death. That is, Saud al-Qahtani, a close confidant of Crown Prince MBS, reportedly gave orders over SKYPE to the security and intelligence agents who tortured, killed, and dismembered Jamal Khashoggi while TURKISH authorities say they have recordings of Saud al-Qahtani directing the proceedings, and the U.S. has sanctioned him after the murder. Ironically, Saud al-Qahtani who was fired but still moves in royal circles, is not on trial and has not appeared in court albeit SAUDI ARABIA’s public prosecutor has indicted 11 unnamed suspects, including five who could receive the death penalty.

Ironically, the U.S. Democratic senators are still frustrated by U.S. President Donald Trump downplaying their hype regarding Jamal Khashoggi by focusing on senior adviser Jared Kushner’s face-to-face meeting with Crown Prince MBS and his father King Salman to discuss U.S. and SAUDI ARABIAN cooperation, the ISRAELI and PALESTINIAN conflict and economic investment in the region. Thus, this week, SAUDI ARABIA still has the crucial support of U.S. President Donald Trump and his top aides, who argue that SAUDI ARABIA’s importance as a strategic ally against IRAN and as a buyer of U.S. weaponry outweighs concerns about whether Crown Prince MBS actually approved plans to kill Jamal Khashoggi, such that U.S. President Donald Trump’s famous words of “Maybe he did, maybe he didn’t.” continues to resonate across the globe. Therefore, almost six months after SAUDI ARABIAN journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered, Crown Prince MBS believed to have ordered the killing has cemented his position as U.S. President Donald Trump’s closest ally in the MIDDLE EAST. Hence, Crown Prince MBS, the de facto ruler of SAUDI ARABIA, has weathered the initial storm as U.S. President Donald Trump and his aides have made it clear that they still consider Crown Prince MBS an essential U.S. partner in the MIDDLE EAST.

IRAQ News

As a friendly reminder, there were two obvious potential outcomes from IRAQI political party negotiations with substantial regional and international consequences. That is, the first potential outcome was a coalition headed by Moqtada al-Sadr that would probably mean a diminishing U.S. presence in IRAQ combined with an IRAQI government that is independent of IRAN’s influence, while reintegrating an independent and sovereign IRAQ into the Arab world. Conversely, the second potential outcome was a coalition headed by the pro-IRANIAN Fatah Alliance representing the SHIITE militias, along with parties loyal to former Prime Ministers Haider al-Abadi and Nouri al-Maliki, as well as smaller groups such as the Kurdistan Coalition, that would result in an overtly pro-IRANIAN government. Thus, in spite of dramatic differences, the three parties that gained the most votes in IRAQ’s May 12, 2018 parliamentary elections agreed to work together to form a new IRAQI government. Thus, after the dust settled, Barham Salih was voted by parliament into the position of President with his first act naming Adil Abdul-Mahdi to be prime minister, who formed the new government during November’ 2018. Ironically, IRAQ’s prime minister-designate Adel Abdul Mahdi presented his new cabinet to the IRAQI parliament for approval, although he has no parliamentary block of his own to stand on, and is thus dependent on the blocks of cleric MUQTADA AL-SADR and pro-IRANIAN militia leader HADI AL-AMIRI for his position.

Furthermore, uncertainty appeared to be looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, while the traditional political parties remain strong, such that the new president and prime minister will have a difficult time translating recent political developments into concrete changes. However, it is important to note that for the first time ever, the IRAQI parliament voted freely for IRAQ’s next president, with Barham Salih winning by a landslide vote of 219 to 22 over his competitor, while in the past, the parliamentary vote served mainly as a rubber-stamp of election results. Furthermore, immediately after Barham Salih was sworn in as President, he designated Adil Abdal-Mehdi to become prime minister, who is the first prime minister not to come from the Islamic Dawa Party, which has dominated post-invasion IRAQI politics. Nonetheless, further complicating the situation in IRAQ is the U.S. re-imposing sanctions against IRAN as IRAQ finds itself caught in the crossfire between its key allies of IRAN and the U.S. such that IRAQ’s economy could suffer the worst economic collateral damage from the U.S. sanctions on IRAN. Ironically, as soon as the most recent round of U.S. sanctions hit IRAN, the IRAQI Prime Minister stated that IRAQ would reluctantly comply but one week later, reality hit IRAQ whereby many IRAQIS forced the IRAQI government to maintain trade relations with IRAN. Thus, IRAQI’s new Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi had no choice but to formally request that the U.S. provide certain exemptions to IRAQ on specific critical IRANIAN goods.

Nonetheless, deadly protests continued to rage in IRAQ over the lack of basic services and government corruption as IRAQI security forces were bracing with a rise in violence that has resulted in more solidarity protests throughout IRAQ as activists look to create momentum in their protests against intermittent electricity availabilities, undrinkable water, unemployment and frustrations with the political system. Furthermore, tensions were once again high in IRAQ this week, as speculations among IRAQI officials that the U.S. will begin to draw down the 5,200 U.S. military personnel based in IRAQ, in view of the defeat of ISIS on the ground in late 2017, and subsequent to U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a complete withdrawal from SYRIA. Thus, SAUDI ARABIAN Crown Prince MBS offered his full support for IRAQ’s continued security in a telephone call with Prime Minister Adel Abdel-Mahdi to fill the void left behind by a potential U.S. withdrawal from IRAQ. Contemporaneously, IRAQI Prime Minister Adel Abdel-Mahdi expressed full support of Saudi Arabia’s initiatives to support IRAQ’s permanent security and prosperity.

Furthermore, this week, IRAQ finds itself caught in the crossfire as U.S. President Donald Trump plans to revert U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East by an eventual complete withdrawal of U.S. troops. However, with the impending U.S. withdrawal, IRAQ appears to be on high alert for ISIS fighters fleeing SYRIA, as there are legitimate security concerns that the fleeing ISIS militia will attempt to regroup in areas they once controlled in northern and western IRAQ. However, IRAQI President Barham Salih stated that foreign ISIS fighters would be tried under IRAQI law, such that they could be handed death sentences for acts of terrorism, if found guilty of killing IRAQIS, as IRAQI law allows for capital punishment. It is important to note that at least 200 mass graves containing up to 12,000 victims have been discovered in IRAQ, as IRAQ continues to struggle to emerge from the psychological damage caused by the four-year battle with ISIS militants. Ironically, this week, it appears that IRAQ is looking to reclaim its role as a regional player while walking a tightrope between rival allies consisting of the U.S. and IRAN. It is important to note that following more than 10 years of international sanctions and 15 years of conflict, including the push to conquer ISIS, which ended over a year ago, violence in IRAQ seems to have dropped sharply. It appears that IRAQ is doing its best to position IRAQ with a neutral foreign policy albeit IRAQ finds itself in a difficult position as an anti-U.S. block controls a majority of seats in the parliament although the U.S. led coalition has invested over $ 2.5 billion to train nearly 200,000 members of the IRAQI security forces, because the U.S. envisions IRAQ as a major regional influence. Thus, IRAQI Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi has been consistent in his messages to all major interests in the region that IRAQ wishes to distance itself from all political axes, while focusing on making decisions in the best interests of rebuilding IRAQ. Nonetheless, IRANIAN Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif appears to be courting IRAQ with his recent visit to the IRAQI Ayatollah Ali Sistani sending a clear signal that IRAN will respect IRAQI sovereignty while pursuing increased business relationships as evidenced by recent deals signed by IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani that cemented future IRANIAN economic relations with IRAQ.

SYRIA News

As a friendly reminder, in recent months, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN allies retook a town, DERAA, that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war, that engulfed SYRIA for over seven years now, as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag, in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war. It is important to note that the SAA along with their RUSSIAN allies now continue to focus their attention on IDLIB where they have vowed to wipe out all terrorists. It is important to note that the SAA and RUSSIA have signalled that an all-out offensive to retake the last rebel-held province in SYRIA consisting of IDLIB is only a matter of time. Therefore, the SAA and RUSSIA have triggered rising fears over a major humanitarian crisis as it has become evident that IDLIB will eventually be subjected to an intense bombing campaign.

Therefore, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave the HTS rebels inside the IDLIB buffer zone another warning to leave the designated RUSSIA and TURKEY designated demilitarized zone. Furthermore, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made it clear that if HTS rebels refuse to leave the designated demilitarized zone, TURKEY will allow the SAA and RUSSIAN Air Force to resume their operations against them in northwestern SYRIA. However, SYRIAN Foreign Minister Walid Al-Mu’allem stated that retaking IDLIB province, and liberating IDLIB from terrorism, is a top priority for the SYRIAN government, such that the primary objective is to contain the terrorists in IDLIB through dialogue, as the SAA prefers to take this route in order to avoid bloodshed. Thus, an opposition government in IDLIB backed by HTS, imposed Islamic Sharia law, which calls for severe retribution for lawbreakers, in order to consolidate their power in the region.

Furthermore, terrorists based in SYRIA’s IDLIB province have threatened to launch a large-scale operation on the northern areas of neighbouring Latakia and Hama provinces, while organizing large-scale attacks, although the SAA is taking appropriate measures and is ready to repel possible attacks. It is important to note that this week, that HTS signed a ceasefire deal with what was left of the rival NLF alliance, that sees HTS supremacy and unison of the region under a HTS led administration. However, the SAA still appears to be preparing for a full fledge assault on IDLIB, as the war between the SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad and rebel forces appear to be entering the final phase, as the U.S. announces its intention for a complete withdrawal from SYRIA. Thus, the Free Syrian Police (FSP), a symbol of SYRIA’s revolution and a recipient of international support, ceased operations following the HTS takeover of IDLIB. However, civilians, members of civil society and activists, who saw the unarmed and independent FSP as a military force for good, see the decision by the FSP to disband as a shocking surprise. Thus, the RUSSIAN foreign ministry announced that the situation was rapidly deteriorating such that IDLIB was almost under the full control of the HTS rebel group, previously linked to al-Qaeda that should trigger a coordinated military effort between RUSSIA and TURKEY to stabilise the situation in IDLIB. However, this week, it appears that RUSSIA and TURKEY are reinforcing their respective positions in IDLIB, as a final imminent battle appears to be inevitable. It is important to note that after 8 years of bloodshed that has killed over 500,000 people and forced over 7.5 million people from their homes, IDLIB, in the northwest of SYRIA is the last opposition stronghold, including extremist terrorist elements such as HTS to existing President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Thus, for the 2.5 million people trapped in IDLIB, with no way out, the tense ceasefire still currently in effect could very well be the only difference between life and death, albeit the de-escalation zone in SYRIA is witnessing ongoing and large-scale cease-fire violations by multiple parties. Unfortunately, escalations in fighting this week have resulted in continued civilian casualties as the RUSSIAN Air Force used their Mi-28NM helicopter gunships during an attack against the HTS rebels. Ironically, it appears that the Mi-28NM attack helicopter is being field-tested in SYRIA before the first test batch of the new all weather; day and night two-seater helicopters commence to be delivered by the RUSSIAN Defence Ministry. Unfortunately, two children were killed and five others injured in SAA regime artillery shelling on a school in northwestern IDLIB that was alleged to be harbouring terrorist.

Meanwhile, the tensions between IRAN and ISRAEL seem to have continued to escalate again after ISRAELI airstrikes targeted IRANIAN military infrastructure inside SYRIA, in recent months. Obviously, IRAN condemned the wave of ISRAELI air strikes in SYRIA and clearly stated that these attacks by ISRAEL represent a blatant violation of SYRIA’s sovereignty such that IRAN has backed SYRIA’s right to defend itself against ISRAEL. It is important to note that the strikes were the heaviest strikes carried out by ISRAEL on SYRIA in decades that came right after twenty rockets were fired at ISRAELI military positions in the occupied Golan Heights of SYRIA. It is no secret that the strikes hurt IRAN that has deployed hundreds of troops inside SYRIA as military advisers to the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) while thousands of IRANIAN militia armed, trained and financed by IRAN, have also been battling SYRIAN rebel forces alongside the SAA. ISRAEL stated that ISRAELI fighter jets struck almost IRAN’s entire military infrastructure inside Syria consisting of some 70 targets in ISRAELS biggest assault since SYRIA’s civil war commenced in 2011.

Subsequently, the tone escalated between ISRAEL and IRAN, as ISRAEL continues to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to be adamant that the IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, in recent months, IRANIAN forces did pull back from the Golan Heights that seems to be a step in the right direction. However, tensions seemed to have risen with IRANIAN’s fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency that has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. The new sanctions target IRANIAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN’s auto sector although the toughest sanctions targeting oil exports have only taken effect recently. However, IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani clearly stated that IRAN would not let the enemy bring IRAN to its knees such that if the enemy thinks they will defeat IRAN, they will take their hope to the grave with them.

Hence, U.S. President, Donald Trump, warned that the U.S. is developing a new strategy for the war in SYRIA that would focus more heavily on pushing IRAN’s military and its proxy forces out of SYRIA. However, U.S. President, Donald Trump, then seemed to realize that he needed an ally in the Middle East and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY. Nonetheless, U.S. President, Donald Trump, seemed to have initially sided with the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty. Obviously, with the IRANIAN oil embargo plans that took effect on November 5, 2018, when sanctions kicked-in, success of the embargo depends on SAUDI ARABIA pumping extra oil to compensate for the anticipated shortfall.

Nonetheless, in an unusual twist of fate, CIA Director Gina Haspel obviously presented a solid case behind her conclusion that there is a high level of confidence that Crown Prince MBS was complicit in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. Thus, CIA Director Gina Haspel has garnered extensive support for her conclusion from both top Republican and top Democratic leaders to the point that the entire Senate Committee voted unanimously to overrule U.S. President Donald Trump by officially blaming Crown Prince MBS for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. Thus, the official response from the SAUDI ARABIAN Foreign Ministry was that Saudi Arabia categorically rejects any interference in its internal affairs, any and all accusations, in any manner, that disrespect its leadership, and any attempts to undermine its sovereignty or diminish its stature. Thus, in a decisive move by Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family, they have ceased offering new versions of their own account of what transpired, with the final official SAUDI ARABIAN version remaining, that the SAUDI ARABIAN assassins killed Jamal Khashoggi with an injection of sedatives, and then immediately set to work dismembering him and hiding his remains. Hence, SAUDI ARABIA put the Jamal Khashoggi murder suspects on trial, whereby the prosecutor, SAUDI ARABIA’s attorney general, demanded the death penalty for 5 of the 11 suspects.

Nonetheless, Agnes Callamard, the U.N. special investigator on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions who spent last week in TURKEY to head an independent international inquiry into the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, released her preliminary conclusions. Thus, the official statement by the U.N. that the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, was a brutal and premeditated killing, which was planned by SAUDI ARABIAN officials, was expected. However, a further allegation from the U.N. inquiry that SAUDI ARABIA seriously undermined TURKEY’s efforts to investigate the murder was surprising. That is, Agnes Callamard stated that woefully inadequate time and access was granted to TURKISH investigators to conduct a professional and effective crime-scene examination and search required by international standards for investigation. In particular, TURKEY was not allowed into the SAUDI ARABIAN consul where Jamal Khashoggi was killed for 13 days.

Therefore, a group of U.S. Democratic senators introduced a bill that would require the leader of the U.S. intelligence community to submit an unclassified report on the death of SAUDI ARABIAN journalist Jamal Khashoggi. According to the bill, the report must include identification of those who carried out, participated in, ordered, or were otherwise complicit in or responsible for the death of Jamal Khashoggi. However, the CIA has already concluded that Crown Prince MBS personally ordered Jamal Khashoggi’s murder while U.S. President Donald Trump has steered clear of blaming the SAUDI ARABIAN leader on the basis of a lack of substantive evidence, clearly signalling that he will not take strong action against SAUDI ARABIA, a key U.S. ally, or Crown Prince MBS. Nonetheless, this week, the SAUDI ARABIAN royal adviser, Saud al-Qahtani, who allegedly oversaw the brutal murder of Jamal Khashoggi, is not among the suspects on trial for his death. That is, Saud al-Qahtani, a close confidant of Crown Prince MBS, reportedly gave orders over SKYPE to the security and intelligence agents who tortured, killed, and dismembered Jamal Khashoggi while TURKISH authorities say they have recordings of Saud al-Qahtani directing the proceedings, and the U.S. has sanctioned him after the murder. Ironically, Saud al-Qahtani who was fired but still moves in royal circles, is not on trial and has not appeared in court albeit SAUDI ARABIA’s public prosecutor has indicted 11 unnamed suspects, including five who could receive the death penalty.

Ironically, the U.S. Democratic senators are still frustrated by U.S. President Donald Trump downplaying their hype regarding Jamal Khashoggi by focusing on senior adviser Jared Kushner’s face-to-face meeting with Crown Prince MBS and his father King Salman to discuss U.S. and SAUDI ARABIAN cooperation, the ISRAELI and PALESTINIAN conflict and economic investment in the region. Thus, this week, SAUDI ARABIA still has the crucial support of U.S. President Donald Trump and his top aides, who argue that SAUDI ARABIA’s importance as a strategic ally against IRAN and as a buyer of U.S. weaponry outweighs concerns about whether Crown Prince MBS actually approved plans to kill Jamal Khashoggi, such that U.S. President Donald Trump’s famous words of “Maybe he did, maybe he didn’t.” continues to resonate across the globe. Therefore, almost six months after SAUDI ARABIAN journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered, Crown Prince MBS believed to have ordered the killing has cemented his position as U.S. President Donald Trump’s closest ally in the MIDDLE EAST. Hence, Crown Prince MBS, the de facto ruler of SAUDI ARABIA, has weathered the initial storm as U.S. President Donald Trump and his aides have made it clear that they still consider Crown Prince MBS an essential U.S. partner in the MIDDLE EAST.

TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

This week’s focus in TURKEY seemed to shift to the TURKISH struggling economy, largely attributable to a lack of confidence by foreign investors, due largely to TURKEY’s repressive crackdown measures on all opposition movements. In my opinion, over the last two plus years, TURKEY has been radically transformed with emergency measures used to consolidate authoritarian powers, silence opposition voices and take away basic human rights and civil liberties. However, the behaviours of TURKEY’s governing AKP seem to be taking their toll on the TURKISH economy, as turbulent politics have resulted in economic turmoil, whereby the sliding TURKISH Lira has set-off alarm bells across TURKEY, as businesses struggle to cope with the financial impacts of a declining TURKISH Lira. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blaming the rest of the world for waging an economic war against TURKEY, while most reputable economists would tend to agree that the TURKISH government has forced their central banks to follow counterproductive, if not destructive economic policies, is a sure sign that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is living in a delusional reality.

In my opinion, the underlying problem is that TURKISH banks and companies borrowed a lot of U.S. dollars, as TURKISH foreign currency debt represents about 30% of TURKEY’s GDP, such that TURKEY is now struggling to pay down the debt as the TURKISH Lira is falling. In my opinion, TURKEY’s economy is struggling in large part due to the TURKISH Lira losing almost 40% of its value against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year, albeit recovering slightly since it hit its lows during October’ 2018. In my opinion, there are a slew of reasons dissuading investors from TURKEY, but at the end of the day, many investors continue to try to liquidate their TURKISH Lira given that it has been dropping fast since the beginning of the year. Thus, the solution from my point-of-view is quite obvious, that TURKEY needs to raise interest rates in order to counter its problems of high inflation and a declining TURKISH Lira, while its economy should be able to bear the brunt of higher interest rates, without significant drops in current production levels.

Thus, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued to focus on TURKEY’s fragile economy, that received another economic blow recently, when TURKEY’s growth forecasts for this year and next were dramatically reduced, triggering further drops in the value of the TURKISH Lira. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY seems to find itself in an awkward position, like a dog chasing its tail, as TURKEY has seen its currency plunge over 40% this year, over investor concerns about President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s influence over monetary policy and a horrible diplomatic separation from the U.S. In my opinion, the TURKISH economic turbulence has shaken global financial markets and created the potential for a banking crisis that could have a disastrous domino effect across the entire global financial markets. In my opinion, TURKEY’s banks face a potential barrage of bad debts as the TURKISH Lira sell-off has driven up the cost for companies to service their foreign currency denominated loans.

That is, TURKISH companies have been borrowing in U.S. Dollars and Euros for years, to take advantage of lower interest rates, but it appears that the private sector has accumulated over $145 billion in foreign currency denominated debt, maturing during the upcoming year. Nonetheless, Berat Albayrak, TURKEY’s finance minister stated that TURKEY does not foresee a big risk on the TURKISH economy and banking system as the TURKISH economy has strong fundamentals. Hence, although THE ROCK kindly and politely offered his consulting services to Berat Albayrak to help TURKEY straighten out their economic and geopolitical mess, Berat Albayrak seems to be heading in the right direction as TURKEY continued this week to focus on the TURKISH economy. In my opinion, TURKEY’s central bank keeping its benchmark interest rate on hold, sticking to its promise to stand firm on inflation, even as the economy suffers a sharp slowdown in growth, was critical to insuring minimal economic volatility with the upcoming local elections to be held on March 31, 2019. In my opinion, the TURKISH economy officially sinking into recession in the fourth quarter of 2018, is obviously highly inconvenient to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is vigorously campaigning for March 31 municipal elections, in which voters are expected to express their anger over the ailing economy as the consumer is now feeling the pain with the soaring cost of food.

However, in my opinion, Berat Albayrak’s perspective seems to be reasonable that the worst was over, albeit this week’s focus by TURKISH authorities on blasting U.S. institutions such as U.S. bank JPMorgan Chase who have critical views of TURKEY’s economic policies and have thus advised on selling the TURKISH Lira. Thus, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatening a very heavy price for foreign groups trying to provoke TURKEY, as U.S. Bank JPMorgan’s note, emerged at a time when the TURKISH Lira was taking a sharp fall on the basis the TURKEY’s central bank support for the TURKISH Lira seems unsustainable, as JPMorgan warned that the TURKISH Lira vulnerability could increase. In my opinion, U.S. Bank JPMorgan’s statements do not appear to be in violation of any law as any bank is entitled to give its honest opinion such that it will be difficult for TURKEY to prove that JPMorgan was malevolent, such that this probe will most likely not result in any formal prosecution. In my opinion, it was not surprising to see TURKISH banks subsequently commence to sell large quantities of foreign currency in an apparent effort to support the TURKISH Lira. However, TURKEY still seems to have a long battle ahead to emerge out of recession, as for much of the past year, TURKEY’s economy has been teetering. Therefore, TURKEY cannot blame JPMorgan for a decade-long, credit-fuelled economic expansion that froze last year after investors expressed uncertainties in TURKISH financial markets, as investors were genuinely concerned about TURKEY’s economic and foreign policies. Thus, TURKEY still needs to reverse the negative impacts attributable to the TURKISH Lira losing 40% of its value against the U.S. dollar in one year, that has in turn fed inflation that has risen by over 20% in one year, representing the fastest increase in over 15 years, while hundreds of TURKISH companies have sought bankruptcy protection, as millions of people have been out of work.

In my opinion, Berat Albayrak sounds like President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which is not surprising as he is his son-in-law such that Berat Albayrak seems to be significantly influenced by the President and seems to be extremely reluctant to go against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s firm belief in the need to maintain interest rates stable at around 17%. However, in my opinion, TURKEY faces the risk of a rapid slowdown in the TURKISH economy that could potentially culminate in a difficult recession unless TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, takes urgent steps to rebalance the TURKISH economy while fuelling investor confidence. In my opinion, TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, acted appropriately, by declaring war on soaring inflation and calling on TURKEY’s businesses to cut prices by 10% to counter runaway inflation, that has driven up the price of everything from food to fuel, and sent inflation to 25% last month, its highest in 15 years. In my opinion, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s unorthodox brand of economics whereby inflation should not be contained by raising interest rates or other traditional measures, but rather by employing supply-side measures to reduce costs, may very well work for medium, large and government controlled organizations.

In my opinion, the main TURKISH opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu made the right strategic decision, by succumbing to pressure to create an alliance with the IYI (Good) Party by formally agreeing to cooperate in a total of 56 provinces, 24 out of which are metropolises. In my opinion, the People’s Alliance between the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) that expanded further to cover 51 out of 81 provinces triggering the necessity for CHP and IYI under the Nation Alliance. In regards to TURKEY’s main opposition CHP leader accused the governing AKP of running unsuccessful economic policies, while adding that TURKEY possesses the potential to overcome current economic problems under prospective CHP rule, Kemal Kilicdaroglu is playing the perfect strategic card. In my opinion, the CHP has the upper hand in terms of blaming the governing AKP since they have single-handed run TURKEY for the last 17 years. Thus, in my opinion, the CHP leader obviously focused on holding the governing AKP responsible for the current economic crisis, while warning prospective voters to not allow the governing AKP to hide behind foreign powers, shopkeepers, terrorists or anyone else.

Furthermore, the opposition CHP made the right strategic decision this week to work with the KURDISH HDP in an effort to deliver a rebuke to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP in local elections on March 31, 2019. Hence, in my opinion, the HDP that represents the second largest opposition group in parliament has made the right strategic decision by opting to sit out of important municipal races, by supporting candidates led by the larger CHP, resulting in more competitive races in the capital of ANKARA and the commercial district of ISTANBUL, resulting in a serious threat to the 25-year rule by the governing AKP. In my opinion, the HDP has made the right strategic decision to focus on winning back about 100 municipalities in the southeast, where elected mayors have been ousted by the governing AKP, with hundreds of KURDISH politicians jailed for alleged ties to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). As a friendly reminder, the PKK, which the TURKISH government considers a terrorist organization, has battled for an autonomous KURDISH region inside TURKEY, on and off since 1984, while the KURDS make up nearly 20% of TURKEY’s population, such that the HDP faced a broad crackdown after it won enough votes to enter parliament in 2015. Thus, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will once again appeal to TURKISH nationalist sentiments with strong warnings that KURDISH separatist aspirations threaten TURKEY’s integrity while obviously taking any opportunity that presents itself to replace any municipal officials involved in terrorism or any criminal act. Hence, in my opinion, the KURDS are obviously angry at the rhetoric of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who seems to be focusing on Turkish nationalism to boost his ailing support with provocative threats to bury Syrian KURDISH militias and telling those who want to live in KURDISTAN to piss off to northern Iraq. Nonetheless, the HDP appears to be resilient and heading for a collision course with the governing AKP whom the HDP accuses of holding them like hostages in their own cities.

In my opinion, the governing AKP is still reeling from the aftermath of last year’s currency collapse, when the TURKISH Lira crashed by around 30%, unleashing a wave of inflation, still running at around 20%, while Turkey’s central bank was forced to increase interest rates to 24% to stabilize the TURKISH Lira, one of the highest interest rates in the industrial world, which is obviously constraining TURKISH economic activity. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY now faces stagflation consisting of persistent high inflation, combined with high unemployment and stagnant demand in TURKEY’s economy while currently in official recession status with the risk of further soring inflation. Hence, from my point-of-view, with opinion polls indicating that the TURKISH economy is the primary concern for TURKISH voters, there is a strong likelihood that the governing AKP will face major losses across TURKEY in the upcoming March 31, 2019 elections. Nonetheless, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will continue to resort to traditional tactics on the campaign trail such as blaming rising costs on a foreign conspiracies, accusing money hungry middlemen of extorting customers and attacking opposition politicians for stirring up a fake campaign of economic hardships. Hence, in my opinion, the ailing TURKISH economy is a major issue for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who built his political success on supercharging TURKISH economic growth and prosperity that will now be put to the electoral test. Thus, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will once again try to blame the ailing TURKISH economy on outside foreign powers, such that he will probably return to his previous stance of comparing Jews to bacteria, and referring to the Jews as The Mastermind conspiracy preventing TURKEY from taking their rightful place as a world superpower.

However, TURKEY’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan listened to businessman Mehmet Naci Topsakal in February of 2019 when he stated that when it comes to money, TURKEY does not have any serious problems, while blaming the TURKISH housing agency that oversees hundreds of projects nationwide for ruining TURKEY. However, the realities of the economic situation in TURKEY is what the rest of the business sector already knew, which is that countless companies across TURKEY are struggling in a multitude of ways after last year’s horrendous TURKISH Lira meltdown. In my opinion, TURKEY has enjoyed a period of relative calm in the financial markets since the economic crisis, which erupted in August of 2018, yet while the TURKISH Lira has strengthened after hitting a succession of all-time lows, 2018’s historic 30% drop continues to reverberate through the TURKISH economy, as businesses that benefitted from an influx of overseas money in the past 10 years, are now stretched thin with around $ 285 billion of foreign currency-denominated debt that has become much more difficult to service, given the weaker TURKISH Lira. In my opinion, voter frustration may translate into losses of some big cities, including the TURKISH capital Ankara and Istanbul, where the governing AKP has ruled for decades. Furthermore, in my opinion, ISTANBUL has major symbolic significance for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as he began his political carrier as the mayor of ISTANBUL.

In my opinion, I was not surprised to see TURKEY focus its attention on IDLIB and continue to warn the SYRIAN regime, RUSSIA and IRAN, that an all-out military offensive on IDLIB could lead to a disastrous outcome for TURKEY, by triggering a new wave of refugees heading towards the TURKISH borders. In my opinion, TURKEY has already sheltered 3.5 million SYRIANS such that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is under significant domestic pressure to not take in any more refugees. Nonetheless, RUSSIA’s worries about AL-QAEDA linked terrorist groups based in IDLIB are legitimate but a full-scale military attack is not the way to deal with this situation as it will certainly put the lives of all innocent civilians at risk and create a humanitarian crisis. Thus, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan needs to receive full credit for being able to negotiate a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA, in recent months, to spare IDLIB from disastrous consequences for the time being. In my opinion, the large quantities of weapons entering SYRIA, in recent months, indicated that TURKEY would be providing complete TURKISH military support for a long drawn-out battle over IDLIB, if necessary. Thus, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin once again made the right strategic decision to hold back the SAA and IRANIANS from engaging in a full fledge military assault on IDLIB that in my opinion will have disastrous consequences for all parties. However, in my opinion the withdrawal of all the so-called radical fighters from the area by October 15, that includes hardline Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is dominated by a rebel faction previously linked to al-Qaeda, were obviously not yet persuaded to leave IDLIB peacefully.

Thus, in my opinion, the threats coming from terrorists based in SYRIA’s IDLIB province to launch a large-scale operation on the northern areas of neighbouring Latakia and Hama provinces should be taken seriously. Thus, in my opinion, this week’s HTS signed ceasefire deal with what was left of the rival NLF alliance that sees HTS supremacy and unison of the region under a HTS led administration will create more difficulties for the SAA. However, in my opinion, the U.S. announcement of its intention for a complete withdrawal from SYRIA, appears to have indirectly given the SAA the ability to prepare for a full fledge assault on IDLIB, as the war between the SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad and rebel forces appear to be entering the final phase, as President Bashar al-Assad now appears ready, willing and able to consolidate all of SYRIA under his control, while the rebels vow to fight until death to hold onto their respective territories. Thus, the Free Syrian Police (FSP), a symbol of SYRIA’s revolution and a recipient of international support, ceasing operations following the HTS takeover of IDLIB, is not surprising. However, in my opinion, the FSP operations should continue, instead of deploying other HTS elements connected to a military faction, as the damage in IDLIB will not likely be exacerbated as the FSP have stopped working on security, corruption and the spread of robberies and crimes.

Furthermore, in my opinion, a large number of police officers who are defectors from the FSP will be harmed by becoming unemployed, and thus will further damage the safety network of IDLIB society in general. Thus, in my opinion, the announcement by the RUSSIAN foreign ministry that the situation was rapidly deteriorating such that IDLIB was almost under the full control of the HTS rebel group, previously linked to al-Qaeda, should trigger a coordinated military effort between RUSSIA and TURKEY to stabilise the situation in IDLIB. Thus, this week, I was not surprised to see that RUSSIA and TURKEY are reinforcing their respective positions in IDLIB, as a final imminent battle appears to be inevitable. In my opinion, as the last opposition stronghold, including extremist terrorist elements such as HTS, IDLIB is shaping up to be the site of a geopolitical showdown, including TURKEY, RUSSIA and IRAN while also risking that the U.S. is pulled into the conflict, as all of these powerful foreign militaries have opposing ambitions. In my opinion, for RUSSIA, who supports the existing AL-ASSAD regime, and TURKEY, who have backed the opposition seeking to overthrow the SYRIAN strongman, the conclusion in IDLIB is now stretched to the breaking point whereby it seems that both sides cannot remain, while nobody wants to relinquish any claims. However, RUSSIA appears to be running out of patience with TURKEY as HTS, the Sunni extremist faction that grew out of the al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra, has emerged as the dominant force in IDLIB. Obviously, President Bashar al-Assad cannot accept HTS controlling IDLIB’s economy, by extracting tolls and fees on border crossings and controlling traffic between IDLIB and TURKEY, while imposing its own interpretation of ISLAMIC law and imprisoning and torturing its opponents.

However, in my opinion, although RUSSIA blames TURKEY by claiming that HTS is using IDLIB as a base to launch attacks against SAA forces, I believe that controlling the HTS group is an impossible mission. Therefore, in my opinion, the rise of HTS in IDLIB has given RUSSIA and the SAA a strong pretext for an assault, although the U.N. warns that such an assault could trigger this century’s worst humanitarian crisis, as IDLIB is home to an estimated 3 million people. Nonetheless, the SAA seems to be pushing ahead with its military operations to retake the strategic M5 highway that connects the provincial capitals of IDLIB, HAMA and ALEPPO. Thus, it is not surprising to see the de-escalation zone in SYRIA witnessing ongoing and large-scale cease-fire violations by multiple parties. In my opinion, recent escalations in fighting with the first use of incendiary phosphorous attacks, a flammable chemical weapon, targeting the IDLIB countryside, with several reports indicating the use of RUSSIAN warplanes, will only exacerbate the existing severe humanitarian crisis in IDLIB, with the 3.3 million IDLIB residents, of whom 1.2 million are Internally Displaced Persons (IDP’s) continuing to experience overcrowding in shelters, lack of employment and shortages of food. In my opinion, both TURKEY and RUSSIA continue to manoeuvre diplomatically and militarily to head off a confrontation over IDLIB, as everybody knows that the potential collapse of the de-escalation zone risks creating the largest humanitarian crisis in the history of the SYRIAN civil war.

In my opinion, the current pattern of ceasefire violations seriously threatens the viability of the de-escalation zone, due to raging escalations in violence, as the pattern of attacks in IDLIB, particularly from the Bashar al-Assad regime, targeting communities near the boundaries of the de-escalation zone, consisting of both urban centers and rural communities, seem to be of little military or strategic value, other than easy targets. In my opinion, TURKEY already struggles to provide for the 3.6 million SYRIAN refugees it currently hosts, while the possibility of 800,000 or more refugees fleeing towards TURKEY from an offensive in IDLIB represents a potential humanitarian catastrophe. In my opinion, it is unfortunate that IDLIB is far from the front pages of major news publications, as the recent escalation and use of chemical weapons showcases the level of impunity the Bashar al-Assad regime and its allied partners, Russia and Iran, continue to enjoy while inflicting ongoing damage and destruction in IDLIB. That is, escalations in fighting this week have resulted in continued civilian casualties as the RUSSIAN Air Force used their Mi-28NM helicopter gunships during an attack against the HTS rebels while the SAA regime shelled a school with artillery on the basis that it was alleged to be harbouring terrorists. In my opinion, President Bashar al-Assad has repeatedly vowed to retake every inch of SYRIAN land that is currently under the control of the opposition HTS, albeit the key player in preventing this SAA offensive in IDLIB has been the Turkish Armed Forces who have strategically placed their troops near the SAA front-lines, which has ultimately forced the SAA to halt any potential ground operations inside the demilitarized zone in IDLIB. Furthermore, in my opinion, the presence of the Turkish Armed Forces in southern Aleppo and northern Hama has left the SAA with limited options in northwest SYRIA. Thus, the SAA has been ordered to halt any operation that would threaten the safety of the Turkish Armed Forces near the demilitarized zones in accordance with the deal reached between TURKEY and RUSSIA such that without RUSSIA’s approval, the SAA will not launch an operation of this magnitude, especially with a potential direct confrontation with the Turkish Armed Forces possible. In my opinion, RUSSIA is waiting patiently for the moment to see if the Turkish Armed Forces will launch an offensive against the KURDISH YPG in the eastern Euphrates region, while there is no guarantee that TURKEY will actually launch an offensive. In my opinion, if the TURKISH military and their rebel allies do attack the KURDISH-held areas, it could pave the way for the SAA to push into the demilitarized zone in IDLIB and begin retaking the territories they lost during the HTS offensive.

In my opinion, the international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY has still not been resolved. Furthermore, consequences for anyone, even a member of the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family, found responsible for the assassination, must be enforced to the fullest extent of the law as the audio recordings of Jamal Khashoggi being assaulted, tortured, killed and dismembered inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate, are disturbing and down right psychopathic in nature. Thus, TURKEY led a relentless campaign to hold SAUDI ARABIA accountable, as TURKISH authorities have allowed media leaks to the international press. Thus, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see CIA Director Gina Haspel garnering extensive support for her conclusion, from both top Republican and top Democratic leaders. However, it was surprising to see the entire Senate Committee vote unanimously to overrule U.S. President Donald Trump, by officially blaming Crown Prince MBS for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. Nonetheless, in my opinion U.S. President Donald Trump has made the right decision to stick with Crown Price MBS on the basis that there is no substantive evidence to link him to the crime. Thus, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA appropriately denounced the U.S. Senate resolutions blaming Crown Prince MBS for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, as they were based on unsubstantiated claims. In my opinion, the Senate Committee vote was a rare rebuke to U.S. President Donald Trump, but largely symbolic in nature, as to become law, the Bill would need to pass the House of Representatives, whose Republican leaders have blocked any legislation intended to rebuke SAUDI ARABIA.

In my opinion, the final official SAUDI ARABIAN version remaining that the SAUDI ARABIAN assassins killed Jamal Khashoggi with an injection of sedatives, and then immediately set to work dismembering him and hiding his remains, clearly answers the question of who, what, when, where and how but the remaining question of why still remains unclear. In my opinion, the 11 Jamal Khashoggi murder suspects put on trial, demanding the death penalty for 5, is completely expected. However, in my opinion, the 5 death sentence decisions will in substance result in SAUDI ARABIA preventing those people responsible from speaking publicly. Thus, in my opinion, it is to the benefit of SAUDI ARABIA for the truth about Jamal Khashoggi to disappear with the 5 planned executions, such that at this stage it appears that SAUDI ARABIA will execute a 5 to 1 exchange.

Nonetheless, in my opinion, preliminary conclusions by the U.N. special investigator on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions heading an independent international inquiry into the murder of Jamal Khashoggi are not surprising. That is, in my opinion, the official statement by the U.N. that the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, was a brutal and premeditated killing, which was planned by SAUDI ARABIAN officials, was expected. However, a further allegation from the U.N. inquiry that SAUDI ARABIA seriously undermined TURKEY’s efforts to investigate the murder was not expected although this clearly demonstrates that the Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family control the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in TURKEY. Thus, SAUDI ARABIA appears to have been able to exercise control over the crime scene that obviously seriously undermined TURKEY’s efforts to investigate Jamal Khashoggi’s murder at the consulate in TURKEY. In my opinion, TURKEY was not allowed into the SAUDI ARABIAN consul where Jamal Khashoggi was killed for 13 days, in order to give SAUDI ARABIA enough time to insure that the trial of the 11 suspects in the case, would not produce any direct links to formal or informal authorization from the Crown Prince MBS or the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family. Therefore, I believe that Agnes Callamard’s assessment that efforts to undermine the investigation in TURKEY raises major concerns about transparency and fairness is valid justifying her request for an official visit to SAUDI ARABIA so that the SAUDI ARABIAN authorities can directly provide her with relevant evidence.

However, in my opinion, the introduction of a bill by a group of U.S. Democratic senators that would require the leader of the U.S. intelligence community to submit an unclassified report on the death of SAUDI ARABIAN journalist Jamal Khashoggi, is another formality in the relentless pursuit by the opposition to U.S. President Donald Trump to hold Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family accountable. However, like the E.U. and the U.N., the U.S. Democratic Senators are now attempting to beat a dead horse to death, although there is nothing more anybody can do at this stage to bring back Jamal Khashoggi. Furthermore, in my opinion, at this stage it would seem more constructive to focus on changing the authoritarian mind sets in the MIDDLE EAST as opposed to overanalyzing the evidence behind the Jamal Khashoggi killing to the point of paralysis, as at the end of the day the elite class rules, such that Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family are under armour and bullet proof. Nonetheless, in my opinion, the report that must include the identification of those who carried out, participated in, ordered, or were otherwise complicit in or responsible for the death of Jamal Khashoggi, will likely not provide any new information, in the sense that there is no substantive evidence to pin Crown Prince MBS or the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family. Thus, in my opinion, focusing on punishing SAUDI ARABIA for its sins of the past will have very little impact, such that the U.S. Democratic Senators should focus on obtaining prospective concessions from SAUDI ARABIA consisting of: (1) Negotiate directly with representatives of the HOUTHI rebels to end the war in YEMEN; (2) End a blockade imposed by SAUDI ARABIA and three other ARAB states on QATAR, in June of last year seeking a political solution, in one of the worst diplomatic rifts with QATAR throughout its entire history; and (3) Release blogger Raif Badawi, women’s rights activists and other political prisoners held in SAUDI ARABIA. However, this week’s announcement that the SAUDI ARABIAN royal adviser, Saud al-Qahtani, who allegedly oversaw the brutal murder of Jamal Khashoggi, is not among the suspects on trial for his death should be part of any deal for future concessions to be obtained from SAUDI ARABIA.

That is, the Crown Prince MBS appears to still be holding on to Saud al-Qahtani and does not seem to be willing to sacrifice Saud al-Qahtani, such that I believe Saud al-Qahtani has been instructed to lie low in the meantime although it is unlikely that Crown Prince MBS will get rid of Saud al-Qahtani. In my opinion, Saud al-Qahtani seems to still be quite active in SAUDI ARABIA except that he appears to be operating on a personal basis, behind the scenes, with puppets operating as front men. That is, it appears that puppets are spreading his influence on SAUDI ARABIAN media and in Twitter attacks of opponents, with accusations being made the old Saud al-Qahtani way, whereby opponents have been accused of being disloyal to Crown Prince MBS or unpatriotic to SAUDI ARABIA for not supporting Crown Prince MBS policies. Thus, in my opinion, the relationship between Crown Prince MBS and former top security adviser Saud al-Qahtani, reflect new geopolitical realities whereby birds of a feather stick together. That is, even in circumstances whereby a top security advisor, seems to have been implicated in a crime, dominant personal, financial and political interests, such as those under Crown Prince MBS, turn a blind eye, as past loyalty, fidelity and allegiance seems to overshadow current scandalous demeanours, in catch me if you can theatrical spectacles, worthy of Academy Award winning aspiring dreamers.

In regards to U.S. Democratic senators still being frustrated by U.S. President Donald Trump downplaying their hype regarding Jamal Khashoggi by focusing on senior adviser Jared Kushner’s face-to-face meeting with Crown Prince MBS and his father King Salman to discuss U.S. and SAUDI ARABIAN cooperation, the ISRAELI and PALESTINIAN conflict and economic investment in the region, this week’s U.S. State Department acknowledgement of SAUDI ARABIA’s killing of U.S. resident Jamal Khashoggi in its annual human rights report, without any mention of Crown Prince MBS in the section on his death was an excellent strategic manoeuvre to exercise future significant influence over SAUDI ARABIA. In my opinion, the U.S., E.U., U.N. and virtually every possible international human rights organizations is beating a dead horse to death, with the U.S. CIA themself assessing that the Crown Prince MBS was involved, while U.S. President Donald Trump and top advisers like Secretary of State Mike Pompeo deny the allegations categorically on the simple premise of a lack of substantive evidence, while at the end of the day the elite class rules, such that Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family are under armour and bullet proof. However, in my opinion, this week, SAUDI ARABIA still has the crucial support of U.S. President Donald Trump and his top aides, who argue that SAUDI ARABIA’s importance as a strategic ally against IRAN and as a buyer of U.S. weaponry outweighs concerns about whether Crown Prince MBS actually approved plans to kill Jamal Khashoggi, such that U.S. President Donald Trump’s famous words of “Maybe he did, maybe he didn’t.” continues to resonate across the globe.

Nonetheless, in my opinion, almost six months after SAUDI ARABIAN journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered, Crown Prince MBS believed to have ordered the killing has cemented his position as U.S. President Donald Trump’s closest ally in the MIDDLE EAST. Ironically, from the perspective of long-term American interests, Crown Prince MBS has become both the greatest ally of the U.S. and one of their biggest problems, as Crown Prince MBS has now become widely known as an autocrat, a hothead and a disruptor. However, in my opinion, Crown Prince MBS appears to have the character traits of a younger SAUDI ARABIA version of U.S. President Donald Trump, except that Crown Prince MBS has fewer checks and balances such that I am not surprised to see them get along very well together. However, due to a lack of checks and balances in the SAUDI ARABIAN system, Crown Prince MBS has not done much to stabilize the MIDDLE EAST. Rather, Crown Prince MBS has made the MIDDLE EAST even less stable with a crackdown against dissidents, bullying other princes, kidnapping Lebanon’s prime minister, imposing an economic blockade on one neighbour, Qatar, and launching a disastrous war against another neighbour, Yemen.

In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump is stuck between a rock and a hard place as the U.S. needs SAUDI ARABIA as a buyer of U.S. manufactured weapons, with deals he claims could reach $110 billion, albeit slightly over exaggerated. Furthermore, I believe that the U.S. strategy to pressure IRAN cannot be accomplished without the support of SAUDI ARABIA, such that the U.S. seems to be facing an all-or-nothing choice, consisting of standing by Crown Prince MBS or walking away from the relationship entirely. However, I believe that there is a third alternative that the U.S. should resort to called tough love, as when you cannot walk away from a critical relationship, you can improve the behaviours of the counterparty. In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump should make it clear that he’s not happy with some of Crown Prince MBS’s decisions while backing up his criticisms with both words and actions like a mentor, given that Crown Prince MBS has shades of a young SAUDI ARABIAN version of Donald Trump. Thus, U.S. President Donald Trump should now focus on other SAUDI ARABIAN hot issues consisting of: (i) The kidnapping of the Prime Minister of Lebanon; (ii) The expelling of the CANADIAN ambassador and cancelling of flights to TORONTO, CANADA over the CANADIAN Foreign Minister’s statements about SAUDI ARABIA’s horrendous human rights record; (iii) Fracturing the alliance among U.S. Gulf partner countries; (iv) Arresting and allegedly torturing women’s rights activists and U.S. citizens; and (v) Initiating and persisting with the war efforts in YEMEN. Furthermore, U.S. President Donald Trump has the ability to exercise significant influence on SAUDI ARABIA by making it clear that SAUDI ARABIA needs the U.S. just as much particularly when it comes to spare parts whereby their fighter jets would be grounded in weeks if the U.S. did not deliver the necessary spare parts. In addition, U.S. President Donald Trump should leverage the role of the new U.S. Ambassador to SAUDI ARABIA, retired General John Abizaid to implement tough-love policies, while not allowing Crown Prince MBS to rely on Jared Kushner anymore as his intermediary.

In particular, in my opinion, the U.N. and the E.U. should leverage the current situation regarding the murder of Jamal Khashoggi to obtain concessions such as allowing a BRITISH panel of MP’s to go to SAIDI ARABIA to investigate allegations that women’s rights activists are being tortured and sexually harassed in detention. In my opinion, the U.K. has so far been stonewalled by SAUDI ARABIA in its efforts to access the eight detained women activists, arrested between May and July, and then branded as traitors in the SAUDI ARABIAN press. In my opinion, Human Rights Watch claims there have been credible reports from members of the women’s families that they have also been denied medical access, as well as maltreated. Therefore, in my opinion, this is an opportune time for the international community to pressure SAUDI ARABIA, as these women are celebrities of the international women’s movement, such that there is an enormous global focus on what is happening to them in the media. Thus, in my opinion, this is a clear opportunity for SAUDI ARABIA to send a strong signal to the world that things have changed in SAUDI ARABIA by agreeing to work with the BRITISH panel of MP’s to liberate the eight detained women activists.

IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

As a friendly reminder, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives, to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ has obtained the necessary political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ to avert a new set of extremists in IRAQ. That is, given that the SUNNIS were brought back into the IRAQI political system, that should be the end of a significant ISIS uprising, as if the SUNNIS are not satisfied with their political voice, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.

As a friendly reminder, either a coalition under Moqtada al-Sadr was expected to emerge or a pro-IRANIAN coalition under the Fatah Alliance was expected to emerge such that either way, it seemed that the U.S. presence in IRAQ would likely diminish over time. Ironically, after months of negotiations, Barham Salih was voted by parliament into the position of President with his first act naming Adil Abdul-Mahdi to be prime minister, who formed his government during November’ 2018. Thus, it seems that the results of the elections were bypassed for the benefit of stability, as this new duo represents the old IRAQI regime, as both have been active in IRAQI politics since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003. That is, President Barham Salih was previously deputy prime minister of IRAQ and Prime Minister of IRAQI Kurdistan while Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi was formerly vice president of IRAQ and more recently oil minister. Thus, in my opinion, the election of President Barham Salih, a KURD, and his nomination of Adil Abdul-Mahdi to be prime minister, a Shiite, seems to have broken months of political deadlock in IRAQ after an inconclusive May election result that everybody seems to have agreed to scrap. Nonetheless, with IRAQ’s prime minister-designate Adel Abdul Mahdi presenting his new cabinet to the IRAQI parliament for approval, although he has no parliamentary block of his own to stand on, and is thus dependent on the blocks of cleric MUQTADA AL-SADR and pro-IRANIAN militia leader HADI AL-AMIRI for his position, Adel Abdul Mahdi will most likely not be able to control IRAQI corruption or challenge existing underlying militia influences in IRAQ.

In regards to recent uncertainty looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, the new president and prime minister will have a difficult time translating recent political developments into concrete changes. Nonetheless, it is important to note that for the first time ever, the IRAQI parliament voted freely for IRAQ’s next president, with Barham Salih winning by a landslide vote of 219 to 22 over his competitor, representing a step in the right direction, given that Barham Salih acclaimed a clear majority. Thus, in my opinion, this vote marks a departure from last summer’s election shake-up, with some two-thirds of the members of IRAQI parliament now being new to the job, as growing protest movements exposed IRAQI citizen disillusionment with the political process, while increasing pressure on the IRAQI parliament for significant change. Nonetheless, in my opinion, poor governance, lack of public infrastructure and high levels of corruption, particularly in poor SUNNI areas, is helping to fuel ISIS’s objectives of a comeback after its crushing defeat. Unfortunately for IRAQ, the U.S. sanctions on IRAN seem to be arriving at the worst possible time, as the embargo on its IRANIAN neighbour could hit jobs in IRAQ and cut off a crucial source of relatively cheap imports into IRAQ.

In my opinion, with 80% of the products on the market in IRAQ being IRANIAN made, if the border closes, it will be an economic crisis for IRAQ. Thus, I was not surprised to see many IRAQIS pushing the IRAQI government to maintain trade relations with IRAN because IRAQ, which shares around 1,450 kilometers of border with IRAN, will be badly hurt by the IRANIAN sanctions. In my opinion, IRAQ relies on IRAN for gas supplies, electricity, water and food such that the U.S. has placed IRAQ in a loser position, as by attempting to cut-off the head of IRAN, the U.S. cut-off the waist of IRAQ, such that although IRAN suffers most without its head, IRAQ is unable to reproduce without its waist. In my opinion, IRAQ will certainly experience shortages of key products if IRAQ complies with all of the U.S. sanctions that could lead to political turmoil at a critical crossroads period in IRAQI politics. Therefore, I was not surprised to see Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi, obtain U.S. sanction waivers, based on a clear vision of what IRAQ really needs, which includes IRANIAN natural gas, electricity and other critical trade related products that fuel the IRAQI economy.

Nonetheless, I was not surprised to see the deadly protests continuing to rage in IRAQ over the lack of basic services and government corruption as IRAQI security forces were bracing for new rounds of violent protests. In my opinion, intermittent electricity availabilities, undrinkable water, unemployment and frustrations with the political system will certainly result in more IRAQI protests. In my opinion, it is easier said than done for IRAQI security forces to protect and facilitate peaceful demonstrations when frustrated IRAQI populace hurl stones and Molotov cocktails at local IRAQI government buildings and IRAQI security forces. Furthermore, tensions were once again high in IRAQ this week, amid speculations among IRAQI officials that the U.S. will begin to draw down the 5,200 U.S. military personnel based in IRAQ. In my opinion, in view of the defeat of ISIS on the ground in late 2017, and subsequent to U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a complete withdrawal from SYRIA, it is only a matter of time before the U.S. will withdraw from IRAQ. However, in my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump will stick to his guns, as he has been extremely vocal that the U.S. has spent over US$ 7 Trillion in the MIDDLE EAST, with nothing to show for it, such that he has long favoured seizing IRAQ’s oil, while at a minimum IRAQ will have to renegotiate business relationships with the U.S. in order to warrant future U.S. involvement in IRAQ.

Thus, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIAN Crown Prince MBS offer of full support for IRAQ’s continued security, to fill the void left behind by a potential U.S. withdrawal from IRAQ, is not surprising. In my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA is courting IRAQ as part of a combined effort with the U.S. to stem the growing regional influence of IRAN, while IRAQ is seeking economic benefits from closer ties with SAUDI ARABIA. Furthermore, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA which is of a majority SUNNI Muslim background is the perfect financial backer for SUNNI Muslim parts of IRAQ, which bore the brunt of the fighting during the war against ISIS, but that now seem to be underfunded by the SHIA-led central government in IRAQ, as the budget appears to be lacking to help the liberated SUNNI Muslim areas. Furthermore, in regards to this week’s turmoil, as IRAQ finds itself caught in the crossfire as U.S. President Donald Trump plans to revert U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East by an eventual complete withdrawal of U.S. troops, it is my opinion that IRAQIS will no longer be able to blame interference by the U.S. for exacerbating IRAQ’s internal problems. However, in my opinion, the impending U.S. withdrawal, will likely trigger ISIS fighters fleeing SYRIA attempting to regroup in areas they once controlled in northern and western IRAQ.

In regards the announcement by IRAQI President Barham Salih that foreign ISIS fighters would be tried under IRAQI law, such that they could be handed death sentences for acts of terrorism, if found guilty of killing IRAQIS, as IRAQI law allows for capital punishment, ISIS fighters who committed atrocities should be executed accordingly as their actions were committed without any human decency like savage wild animals without any mercy. That is, with at least 200 mass graves containing up to 12,000 victims discovered in IRAQ, IRAQ continues to struggle to emerge from the psychological damage caused by the four-year battle with ISIS militants. In my opinion, with ISIS in IRAQ killing almost 33,000 civilians, with more than 55,000 injured, it is critical to identity the victims in order to aid the recovery process for their families. However, in my opinion, it appears that IRAQ is looking to reclaim its role as a regional player between rival allies consisting of the U.S. and IRAN by positioning IRAQ as a bridge between these rival powers with profound divisions. In my opinion, following more than 10 years of international sanctions and 15 years of conflict, including the push to conquer ISIS, which ended over a year ago, IRAQ seems to be the ideal bridge between rivals in the MIDDLE EAST as the perfect messenger, as IRAQ seems to be the only country that maintains dialogue with all important actors in the MIDDLE EAST. In my opinion, IRAQ seems to be the only major actor in the region able to maintain constructive dialogue with the U.S., IRAN, JORDAN, QATAR, SYRIA, SAUDI ARABIA and TURKEY such that IRAQ will likely emerge as a power broker in the region. Thus, IRAQ has developed the necessary political, economic and diplomatic skills required to broker deals, as IRAQ was able to leverage both the U.S. anti-ISIS coalition, and the IRANIAN backed paramilitary groups also battling ISIS, to effectively quash ISIS on all major fronts in IRAQ. In regards to IRANIAN Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif sending a clear signal that IRAN will respect IRAQI sovereignty while pursuing increased business relationships as evidenced by recent deals signed by IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani that cemented future IRANIAN economic relations with IRAQ, I expect IRAN to pursue its economic expansion plans into IRAQ. In my opinion, IRANIAN Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has definitely laid down the charm offensive referring to all IRAQIS as friends including the KURDS whom he also visited directly in the KURDISTAN autonomous region in northern IRAQ. In my opinion, IRAN seems to be looking to develop closer relations with the KURDS, as he memorialized the HALABJA massacre describing KURDISH victims of Saddam Hussein’s regime as brothers. As a friendly reminder, the massacre against the KURDISH people took place on March 16, 1988, during the closing days of the IRAN and IRAQ War in the KURDISH city of HALABJA in IRAQ. The massacre took place 48 hours after the fall of the town to the IRANIAN Army whereby mustard gas along with other unidentified nerve agents were used in the attack, that killed between 3,200 and 5,000 people while injuring between 7,000 to 10,000 more, most of them civilians.

SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

As a friendly reminder, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN ally recently retook a town, DERAA that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war, as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war. Thus, in my opinion, the shift now in focus of the SAA campaign to IDLIB was expected, as it is unacceptable that terrorists, particularly the AL-NUSRA FRONT, are using the de-escalation area of IDLIB to attack the SYRIAN army and to also attack the RUSSIAN military bases in the area by utilizing drones. However, in my opinion, TURKISH backed opposition groups in IDLIB that have attempted to unify into a new coalition, with some 70,000 fighters pledging to fight against SAA forces without the terrorist group, Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the most dominant rebel force in IDLIB in control of about 60% of the province, will not be able to indefinitely withstand the impending SAA and RUSSIAN military onslaught. Furthermore, in my opinion, a major military operation in IDLIB could pose a particularly threatening humanitarian crisis because there is no opposition held territory remaining in SYRIA, where people could be evacuated to, such that as many as 2.5 million SYRIANS could try to flee to the closed TURKISH border, creating a new refugee crisis of catastrophic proportions.

Hence, in my opinion, although RUSSIA’s worries about AL-QAEDA linked terrorist groups based in IDLIB are legitimate, a full-scale military attack is not the way to deal with this situation as it will certainly put the lives of all innocent civilians at risk and create a humanitarian crisis. Thus, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan needs to receive full credit for being able to negotiate a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA to spare IDLIB from disastrous consequences for the time being. In my opinion, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin is by far the best negotiator currently in the region, who always seems to be able to remain cool, calm and collected, as he once again made the right strategic decision to hold back the SAA and IRANIANS from engaging in a full fledge military assault on IDLIB that in my opinion will have disastrous consequences for all parties.

Thus, I was not surprised to see an opposition government in IDLIB backed by HTS, imposing Islamic Sharia law, which calls for severe retribution for lawbreakers, in order to consolidate their power in the region. However, in my opinion, the sheer rigidity and brutality of Islamic Sharia law may actually have the opposite impact, and alienate local citizens, as perpetrators of abductions and armed robberies will be executed, have their hands cut off or be exiled, depending upon the crime. Thus, in my opinion, the threats coming from terrorists based in SYRIA’s IDLIB province to launch a large-scale operation on the northern areas of neighbouring Latakia and Hama provinces should be taken seriously. Thus, in my opinion, this week’s HTS signing of ceasefire deal with what was left of rival NLF alliance sees HTS supremacy and unison of the region under a HTS led administration creating more difficulties for the SAA. However, in my opinion, the U.S. announcement of its intention for a complete withdrawal from SYRIA, appears to have indirectly given the SAA the ability to prepare for a full fledge assault on IDLIB, as the war between the SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad and rebel forces appear to be entering the final phase, as President Bashar al-Assad now appears ready, willing and able to consolidate all of SYRIA under his control, while the rebels vow to fight until death to hold onto their respective territories.

Thus, the Free Syrian Police (FSP), a symbol of SYRIA’s revolution and a recipient of international support, ceasing operations following the HTS takeover of IDLIB, is not surprising. However, in my opinion, the FSP operations should continue, instead of deploying other HTS elements connected to a military faction, as the damage in IDLIB will not likely be exacerbated as the FSP have stopped working on security, corruption and the spread of robberies and crimes. Furthermore, in my opinion, a large number of police officers who are defectors from the FSP will be harmed by becoming unemployed, and thus will further damage the safety network of IDLIB society in general. Thus, in my opinion, the announcement by the RUSSIAN foreign ministry that the situation was rapidly deteriorating such that IDLIB was almost under the full control of the HTS rebel group, previously linked to al-Qaeda, should trigger a coordinated military effort between RUSSIA and TURKEY to stabilise the situation in IDLIB. Thus, this week, I was not surprised to see that RUSSIA and TURKEY are reinforcing their respective positions in IDLIB, as a final imminent battle appears to be inevitable. In my opinion, as the last opposition stronghold, including extremist terrorist elements such as HTS, IDLIB is shaping up to be the site of a geopolitical showdown, including TURKEY, RUSSIA and IRAN while also risking that the U.S. is pulled into the conflict, as all of these powerful foreign militaries have opposing ambitions. In my opinion, for RUSSIA, who supports the existing AL-ASSAD regime, and TURKEY, who have backed the opposition seeking to overthrow the SYRIAN strongman, the conclusion in IDLIB is now stretched to the breaking point whereby it seems that both sides cannot remain, while nobody wants to relinquish any claims. However, RUSSIA appears to be running out of patience with TURKEY as HTS, the Sunni extremist faction that grew out of the al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra, has emerged as the dominant force in IDLIB. Obviously, President Bashar al-Assad cannot accept HTS controlling IDLIB’s economy, by extracting tolls and fees on border crossings and controlling traffic between IDLIB and TURKEY, while imposing its own interpretation of ISLAMIC law and imprisoning and torturing its opponents.

However, in my opinion, although RUSSIA blames TURKEY by claiming that HTS is using IDLIB as a base to launch attacks against SAA forces, I believe that controlling the HTS group is an impossible mission. Therefore, in my opinion, the rise of HTS in IDLIB has given RUSSIA and the SAA a strong pretext for an assault, although the U.N. warns that such an assault could trigger this century’s worst humanitarian crisis, as IDLIB is home to an estimated 3 million people. Nonetheless, the SAA seems to be pushing ahead with its military operations to retake the strategic M5 highway that connects the provincial capitals of IDLIB, HAMA and ALEPPO. Thus, it is not surprising to see the de-escalation zone in SYRIA witnessing ongoing and large-scale cease-fire violations by multiple parties. In my opinion, recent escalations in fighting with the first use of incendiary phosphorous attacks, a flammable chemical weapon, targeting the IDLIB countryside, with several reports indicating the use of RUSSIAN warplanes, will only exacerbate the existing severe humanitarian crisis in IDLIB, with the 3.3 million IDLIB residents, of whom 1.2 million are Internally Displaced Persons (IDP’s) continuing to experience overcrowding in shelters, lack of employment and shortages of food. In my opinion, both TURKEY and RUSSIA continue to manoeuvre diplomatically and militarily to head off a confrontation over IDLIB, as everybody knows that the potential collapse of the de-escalation zone risks creating the largest humanitarian crisis in the history of the SYRIAN civil war. In my opinion, the current pattern of ceasefire violations seriously threatens the viability of the de-escalation zone, due to raging escalations in violence, as the pattern of attacks in IDLIB, particularly from the Bashar al-Assad regime, targeting communities near the boundaries of the de-escalation zone, consisting of both urban centers and rural communities, seem to be of little military or strategic value, other than easy targets.

In my opinion, TURKEY already struggles to provide for the 3.6 million SYRIAN refugees it currently hosts, while the possibility of 800,000 or more refugees fleeing towards TURKEY from an offensive in IDLIB represents a potential humanitarian catastrophe. In my opinion, it is unfortunate that IDLIB is far from the front pages of major news publications, as the recent escalation and use of chemical weapons showcases the level of impunity the Bashar al-Assad regime and its allied partners, Russia and Iran, continue to enjoy while inflicting ongoing damage and destruction in IDLIB. That is, escalations in fighting this week have resulted in continued civilian casualties as the RUSSIAN Air Force used their Mi-28NM helicopter gunships during an attack against the HTS rebels while the SAA regime shelled a school with artillery on the basis that it was alleged to be harbouring terrorists. In my opinion, President Bashar al-Assad has repeatedly vowed to retake every inch of SYRIAN land that is currently under the control of the opposition HTS, albeit the key player in preventing this SAA offensive in IDLIB has been the Turkish Armed Forces who have strategically placed their troops near the SAA front-lines, which has ultimately forced the SAA to halt any potential ground operations inside the demilitarized zone in IDLIB. Furthermore, in my opinion, the presence of the Turkish Armed Forces in southern Aleppo and northern Hama has left the SAA with limited options in northwest SYRIA. Thus, the SAA has been ordered to halt any operation that would threaten the safety of the Turkish Armed Forces near the demilitarized zones in accordance with the deal reached between TURKEY and RUSSIA such that without RUSSIA’s approval, the SAA will not launch an operation of this magnitude, especially with a potential direct confrontation with the Turkish Armed Forces possible. In my opinion, RUSSIA is waiting patiently for the moment to see if the Turkish Armed Forces will launch an offensive against the KURDISH YPG in the eastern Euphrates region, while there is no guarantee that TURKEY will actually launch an offensive. In my opinion, if the TURKISH military and their rebel allies do attack the KURDISH-held areas, it could pave the way for the SAA to push into the demilitarized zone in IDLIB and begin retaking the territories they lost during the HTS offensive.

Meanwhile, in regards to escalation of tensions in recent months between ISRAEL and IRAN, I am not surprised to see ISRAEL continuing to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. In my opinion, ISRAEL will not back down from its position that IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, in recent months, IRANIAN forces have pulled back from the Golan Heights that should be welcomed as a positive development, although ISRAEL clearly stated that such a pull back is insufficient, with no compromises or concessions from ISRAEL’s position of a complete withdrawal being necessary. In my opinion, tensions have obviously risen once again since IRANIAN’s were fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency that has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. The recent sanctions that target IRANIAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN’s auto sector that took effect seem to reflect the U.S. belief that IRAN will eventually surrender via the pressure tactics of sanctions. However, in my opinion IRAN’s pride runs through the veins of a majority of IRANIANS who would prefer to eat sand and drink sewage water before conceding to U.S. pressure tactics via sanctions.

In my opinion, the U.S. withdrawal from the IRAN nuclear deal has already badly shaken IRAN’s economy, crashing its currency, the IRANAN Rial, such that IRAN will have to choose to either come back to the negotiating table with the U.S. or watch its IRANIAN economy suffer from re-imposed U.S. sanctions. Thus, I was not surprised at U.S. President, Donald Trump warning that the U.S. is developing a new strategy for the war in SYRIA that would focus more heavily on pushing IRAN’s military and its proxy forces out of SYRIA. In my opinion, the new U.S. strategy would probably not involve the U.S. military directly targeting and killing IRANIAN soldiers or IRANIAN proxies, given that the U.S. military only has the right of self-defence authorization in SYRIA, and thus should only strike IRANIAN targets if the U.S. feels threatened. In my opinion, the U.S. plan will likely focus on political and diplomatic efforts to force IRAN out of SYRIA by squeezing SYRIA financially. That is, the U.S. will likely withhold reconstruction aid from areas where IRANIAN and RUSSIAN forces are present and also impose sanctions on RUSSIAN and IRANIAN companies working on reconstruction in SYRIA. Ironically, IRAN seems to be heading in the direction of weathering the storm created by the crippling U.S. sanctions on IRAN’s oil industry that came back into full force during November’ 2018. Therefore, IRAN’s strategy seems to be heading in the direction of maintaining a status-quo arrangement until the fate of U.S. President Donald Trump becomes clearer in terms of whether he will ultimately be elected to serve a second term in 2020.

However, U.S. President, Donald Trump, then seemed to realize that he needed an ally in the Middle East and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY. Nonetheless, I am not surprised that U.S. President, Donald Trump, seems to have sided with the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by initially speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty. Furthermore, I was not surprised that U.S. President, Donald Trump did not hide from the U.S. realities that he does not want the U.S. lucrative business relationships with SAUDI ARABIA to change. Hence, in my opinion, the Jamal Khashoggi scandal will shortly come to an end, with the Crown Prince Mohammed Ben Salman (MBS) and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family walking away absolved, as TURKEY has not produced adequate substantive evidence to pin them with the crime, other than an abundance of circumstantial evidence that they ordered the hit as defector rulers of SAUDI ARABIA. Hence, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA has appropriately indicted 11 suspects in the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, with five facing the death penalty, such that if SAUDI ARABIA proceeds with the executions, neither TURKEY nor any other country will ever hear the testimonies of the accused, such that the accused versions of the events will in essence be buried in their graves. However, in my opinion, it is to the benefit of SAUDI ARABIA for the truth about Jamal Khashoggi to disappear with the 5 planned executions, such that at this stage it appears that SAUDI ARABIA will execute a 5 to 1 exchange.

Thus, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see CIA Director Gina Haspel garnering extensive support for her conclusion, from both top Republican and top Democratic leaders. However, it was surprising to see the entire Senate Committee vote unanimously to overrule U.S. President Donald Trump, by officially blaming Crown Prince MBS for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. Nonetheless, in my opinion U.S. President Donald Trump has made the right decision to stick with Crown Price MBS on the basis that there is no substantive evidence to link him to the crime. In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump hit the nail on the head when he clearly stated that Crown Prince MBS has vehemently denied involvement in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi such that the U.S. cannot condemn the leader of a good ally on the basis of circumstantial evidence. In my opinion, given that Crown Prince MBS vehemently denies involvement in the murder, the rule of international law must apply of innocent until proven guilt by a court of law based on substantive evidence. Thus, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA appropriately denounced the U.S. Senate resolutions blaming Crown Prince MBS for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, as they were based on unsubstantiated claims. In my opinion, the Senate Committee vote was a rare rebuke to U.S. President Donald Trump, but largely symbolic in nature, as to become law, the Bill would need to pass the House of Representatives, whose Republican leaders have blocked any legislation intended to rebuke SAUDI ARABIA.

Nonetheless, in my opinion, preliminary conclusions by the U.N. special investigator on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions heading an independent international inquiry into the murder of Jamal Khashoggi are not surprising. That is, in my opinion, the official statement by the U.N. that the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, was a brutal and premeditated killing, which was planned by SAUDI ARABIAN officials, was expected. However, a further allegation from the U.N. inquiry that SAUDI ARABIA seriously undermined TURKEY’s efforts to investigate the murder was not expected although this clearly demonstrates that the Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family control the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in TURKEY. Thus, SAUDI ARABIA appears to have been able to exercise control over the crime scene that obviously seriously undermined TURKEY’s efforts to investigate Jamal Khashoggi’s murder at the consulate in TURKEY. In my opinion, TURKEY was not allowed into the SAUDI ARABIAN consul where Jamal Khashoggi was killed for 13 days, in order to give SAUDI ARABIA enough time to insure that the trial of the 11 suspects in the case, would not produce any direct links to formal or informal authorization from the Crown Prince MBS or the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family. Therefore, I believe that Agnes Callamard’s assessment that efforts to undermine the investigation in TURKEY raises major concerns about transparency and fairness is valid justifying her request for an official visit to SAUDI ARABIA so that the SAUDI ARABIAN authorities can directly provide her with relevant evidence.

However, in my opinion, the introduction of a bill by a group of U.S. Democratic senators that would require the leader of the U.S. intelligence community to submit an unclassified report on the death of SAUDI ARABIAN journalist Jamal Khashoggi, is another formality in the relentless pursuit by the opposition to U.S. President Donald Trump to hold Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family accountable. However, like the E.U. and the U.N., the U.S. Democratic Senators are now attempting to beat a dead horse to death, although there is nothing more anybody can do at this stage to bring back Jamal Khashoggi. Furthermore, in my opinion, at this stage it would seem more constructive to focus on changing the authoritarian mind sets in the MIDDLE EAST as opposed to overanalyzing the evidence behind the Jamal Khashoggi killing to the point of paralysis, as at the end of the day the elite class rules, such that Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family are under armour and bullet proof. Nonetheless, in my opinion, the report that must include the identification of those who carried out, participated in, ordered, or were otherwise complicit in or responsible for the death of Jamal Khashoggi, will likely not provide any new information, in the sense that there is no substantive evidence to pin Crown Prince MBS or the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family. Thus, in my opinion, focusing on punishing SAUDI ARABIA for its sins of the past will have very little impact, such that the U.S. Democratic Senators should focus on obtaining prospective concessions from SAUDI ARABIA consisting of: (1) Negotiate directly with representatives of the HOUTHI rebels to end the war in YEMEN; (2) End a blockade imposed by SAUDI ARABIA and three other ARAB states on QATAR, in June of last year seeking a political solution, in one of the worst diplomatic rifts with QATAR throughout its entire history; and (3) Release blogger Raif Badawi, women’s rights activists and other political prisoners held in SAUDI ARABIA. However, this week’s announcement that the SAUDI ARABIAN royal adviser, Saud al-Qahtani, who allegedly oversaw the brutal murder of Jamal Khashoggi, is not among the suspects on trial for his death should be part of any deal for future concessions to be obtained from SAUDI ARABIA.

That is, the Crown Prince MBS appears to still be holding on to Saud al-Qahtani and does not seem to be willing to sacrifice Saud al-Qahtani, such that I believe Saud al-Qahtani has been instructed to lie low in the meantime although it is unlikely that Crown Prince MBS will get rid of Saud al-Qahtani. In my opinion, Saud al-Qahtani seems to still be quite active in SAUDI ARABIA except that he appears to be operating on a personal basis, behind the scenes, with puppets operating as front men. That is, it appears that puppets are spreading his influence on SAUDI ARABIAN media and in Twitter attacks of opponents, with accusations being made the old Saud al-Qahtani way, whereby opponents have been accused of being disloyal to Crown Prince MBS or unpatriotic to SAUDI ARABIA for not supporting Crown Prince MBS policies. Thus, in my opinion, the relationship between Crown Prince MBS and former top security adviser Saud al-Qahtani, reflect new geopolitical realities whereby birds of a feather stick together. That is, even in circumstances whereby a top security advisor, seems to have been implicated in a crime, dominant personal, financial and political interests, such as those under Crown Prince MBS, turn a blind eye, as past loyalty, fidelity and allegiance seems to overshadow current scandalous demeanours, in catch me if you can theatrical spectacles, worthy of Academy Award winning aspiring dreamers.

In regards to U.S. Democratic senators still being frustrated by U.S. President Donald Trump downplaying their hype regarding Jamal Khashoggi by focusing on senior adviser Jared Kushner’s face-to-face meeting with Crown Prince MBS and his father King Salman to discuss U.S. and SAUDI ARABIAN cooperation, the ISRAELI and PALESTINIAN conflict and economic investment in the region, this week’s U.S. State Department acknowledgement of SAUDI ARABIA’s killing of U.S. resident Jamal Khashoggi in its annual human rights report, without any mention of Crown Prince MBS in the section on his death was an excellent strategic manoeuvre to exercise future significant influence over SAUDI ARABIA. In my opinion, the U.S., E.U., U.N. and virtually every possible international human rights organizations is beating a dead horse to death, with the U.S. CIA themself assessing that the Crown Prince MBS was involved, while U.S. President Donald Trump and top advisers like Secretary of State Mike Pompeo deny the allegations categorically on the simple premise of a lack of substantive evidence, while at the end of the day the elite class rules, such that Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family are under armour and bullet proof. However, in my opinion, this week, SAUDI ARABIA still has the crucial support of U.S. President Donald Trump and his top aides, who argue that SAUDI ARABIA’s importance as a strategic ally against IRAN and as a buyer of U.S. weaponry outweighs concerns about whether Crown Prince MBS actually approved plans to kill Jamal Khashoggi, such that U.S. President Donald Trump’s famous words of “Maybe he did, maybe he didn’t.” continues to resonate across the globe.

Nonetheless, in my opinion, almost six months after SAUDI ARABIAN journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered, Crown Prince MBS believed to have ordered the killing has cemented his position as U.S. President Donald Trump’s closest ally in the MIDDLE EAST. Ironically, from the perspective of long-term American interests, Crown Prince MBS has become both the greatest ally of the U.S. and one of their biggest problems, as Crown Prince MBS has now become widely known as an autocrat, a hothead and a disruptor. However, in my opinion, Crown Prince MBS appears to have the character traits of a younger SAUDI ARABIA version of U.S. President Donald Trump, except that Crown Prince MBS has fewer checks and balances such that I am not surprised to see them get along very well together. However, due to a lack of checks and balances in the SAUDI ARABIAN system, Crown Prince MBS has not done much to stabilize the MIDDLE EAST. Rather, Crown Prince MBS has made the MIDDLE EAST even less stable with a crackdown against dissidents, bullying other princes, kidnapping Lebanon’s prime minister, imposing an economic blockade on one neighbour, Qatar, and launching a disastrous war against another neighbour, Yemen.

In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump is stuck between a rock and a hard place as the U.S. needs SAUDI ARABIA as a buyer of U.S. manufactured weapons, with deals he claims could reach $110 billion, albeit slightly over exaggerated. Furthermore, I believe that the U.S. strategy to pressure IRAN cannot be accomplished without the support of SAUDI ARABIA, such that the U.S. seems to be facing an all-or-nothing choice, consisting of standing by Crown Prince MBS or walking away from the relationship entirely. However, I believe that there is a third alternative that the U.S. should resort to called tough love, as when you cannot walk away from a critical relationship, you can improve the behaviours of the counterparty. In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump should make it clear that he’s not happy with some of Crown Prince MBS’s decisions while backing up his criticisms with both words and actions like a mentor, given that Crown Prince MBS has shades of a young SAUDI ARABIAN version of Donald Trump. Thus, U.S. President Donald Trump should now focus on other SAUDI ARABIAN hot issues consisting of: (i) The kidnapping of the Prime Minister of Lebanon; (ii) The expelling of the CANADIAN ambassador and cancelling of flights to TORONTO, CANADA over the CANADIAN Foreign Minister’s statements about SAUDI ARABIA’s horrendous human rights record; (iii) Fracturing the alliance among U.S. Gulf partner countries; (iv) Arresting and allegedly torturing women’s rights activists and U.S. citizens; and (v) Initiating and persisting with the war efforts in YEMEN. Furthermore, U.S. President Donald Trump has the ability to exercise significant influence on SAUDI ARABIA by making it clear that SAUDI ARABIA needs the U.S. just as much particularly when it comes to spare parts whereby their fighter jets would be grounded in weeks if the U.S. did not deliver the necessary spare parts. In addition, U.S. President Donald Trump should leverage the role of the new U.S. Ambassador to SAUDI ARABIA, retired General John Abizaid to implement tough-love policies, while not allowing Crown Prince MBS to rely on Jared Kushner anymore as his intermediary.

In particular, in my opinion, the U.N. and the E.U. should leverage the current situation regarding the murder of Jamal Khashoggi to obtain concessions such as allowing a BRITISH panel of MP’s to go to SAIDI ARABIA to investigate allegations that women’s rights activists are being tortured and sexually harassed in detention. In my opinion, the U.K. has so far been stonewalled by SAUDI ARABIA in its efforts to access the eight detained women activists, arrested between May and July, and then branded as traitors in the SAUDI ARABIAN press. In my opinion, Human Rights Watch claims there have been credible reports from members of the women’s families that they have also been denied medical access, as well as maltreated. Therefore, in my opinion, this is an opportune time for the international community to pressure SAUDI ARABIA, as these women are celebrities of the international women’s movement, such that there is an enormous global focus on what is happening to them in the media. Thus, in my opinion, this is a clear opportunity for SAUDI ARABIA to send a strong signal to the world that things have changed in SAUDI ARABIA by agreeing to work with the BRITISH panel of MP’s to liberate the eight detained women activists.

In my opinion, the current situation in the Middle East depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War that would likely be triggered by a direct ISRAEL and IRAN conflict, such that all leaders across the globe must avoid the temptation to look away but rather should increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, minimize civilian casualties, prevent the further use of chemical weapons and alleviate the humanitarian crisis from a civil war spiralling out of control with no end in sight, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the Middle East. That being said, the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while subsequently being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as the SAUDI ARABIAN royal adviser, Saud al-Qahtani, who allegedly oversaw the brutal murder of Jamal Khashoggi, is not among the suspects on trial for his death, as Crown Prince MBS appears to still be holding on to Saud al-Qahtani and does not seem to be willing to sacrifice him, as birds of a feather stick together, such that even when a top security advisor, seems to have been implicated in a crime, dominant personal, financial and political interests, such as those under Crown Prince MBS, turn a blind eye, as past loyalty, fidelity and allegiance seems to overshadow current scandalous demeanours, in catch me if you can theatrical spectacles, worthy of Academy Award winning aspiring dreamers, while Crown Prince MBS has cemented his position as U.S. President Donald Trump’s closest ally in the MIDDLE EAST, becoming both the greatest ally of the U.S. and one of their biggest problems, as Crown Prince MBS has now become widely known as an autocrat, a hothead and a disruptor, like a younger SAUDI ARABIAN version of U.S. President Donald Trump, except that Crown Prince MBS has fewer checks and balances, such that the U.S. seems to be facing an all-or-nothing choice, consisting of standing by Crown Prince MBS or walking away from the relationship entirely, albeit a third alternative called tough love will probably suffice, as when you cannot walk away from a critical relationship, you can improve the behaviours of the counterparty, such that U.S. President Donald Trump should make it clear that he’s not happy with some of Crown Prince MBS’s decisions while backing up his criticisms with both words and actions like a mentor.

In my opinion, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, although ISIS was literally disappearing from the face of the map in SYRIA, new showdowns between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) only serves to fuel the re-emergence of ISIS as a dangerous player in SYRIA. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS. Thus, in my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and utter madness.

Summary

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 344” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as the SAUDI ARABIAN royal adviser, Saud al-Qahtani, who allegedly oversaw the brutal murder of Jamal Khashoggi, is not among the suspects on trial for his death, as Crown Prince MBS appears to still be holding on to Saud al-Qahtani and does not seem to be willing to sacrifice him, as birds of a feather stick together, such that even when a top security advisor, seems to have been implicated in a crime, dominant personal, financial and political interests, such as those under Crown Prince MBS, turn a blind eye, as past loyalty, fidelity and allegiance seems to overshadow current scandalous demeanours, in catch me if you can theatrical spectacles, worthy of Academy Award winning aspiring dreamers, while Crown Prince MBS has cemented his position as U.S. President Donald Trump’s closest ally in the MIDDLE EAST, becoming both the greatest ally of the U.S. and one of their biggest problems, as Crown Prince MBS has now become widely known as an autocrat, a hothead and a disruptor, like a younger SAUDI ARABIAN version of U.S. President Donald Trump, except that Crown Prince MBS has fewer checks and balances, such that the U.S. seems to be facing an all-or-nothing choice, consisting of standing by Crown Prince MBS or walking away from the relationship entirely, albeit a third alternative called tough love will probably suffice, as when you cannot walk away from a critical relationship, you can improve the behaviours of the counterparty, such that U.S. President Donald Trump should make it clear that he’s not happy with some of Crown Prince MBS’s decisions, while backing up his criticisms with both words and actions like a mentor.

Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:


March 31, 2019