World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 339

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 339” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as slain journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s fiancée, Hatice Cengiz, is now doing a fantastic job urging the E.U. to transcend economic interests and exert pressure on SAUDI ARABIA to insure justice prevails in this sensational killing, that is still headlining news internationally, given that anybody could fall victim of this system, with economic wealth being more and more concentrated amongst the elites worldwide, there is an increasing risk of political assassinations of dissidents, on the simple basis of the elite in substance being untouchable, albeit criticism needs to be redirected into obtaining future concessions from SAUDI ARABIA, as the E.U. like the U.N. are attempting to beat a dead horse to death, such that human rights activists should focus their efforts on implementing Jamal Khashoggi’s vision, as his work to promote reconciliation between the SAUDI ARABIAN and IRANIAN people seems to be the root cause behind him getting killed, such that poetic justice would seem to best be served if Jamal Khashoggi’s last words calling on leaders in SAUDI ARABIA and IRAN to stop meddling in the internal affairs of other countries such as SYRIA and YEMEN, causing death and devastation, as opposed to overanalyzing the evidence behind the Jamal Khashoggi killing to the point of paralysis, as at the end of the day the elite class rules, such that Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family are under armour and bullet proof, while GERMANY banning arms sales to SAUDI ARABIA seems futile, as GERMANY remains an E.U. center for high-tech components, such that the supply of arms in the MIDDLE EAST should be handled in a similar fashion to the supply of narcotics, in the sense that the focus should be placed on reducing demand, by reducing tensions in the region along with constructive negotiating efforts to put an end to the raging civil wars, hence the U.N. should now leverage the current situation to pressure SAUDI ARABIA, to release eight women activists who are celebrities of the international women’s movement, as a clear opportunity for SAUDI ARABIA to send a strong signal to the world that things have changed in SAUDI ARABIA.

TURKEY News

During the week ending on Sunday, February 24, 2019, the focus in TURKEY seemed to shift to the TURKISH struggling economy, largely attributable to a lack of confidence by foreign investors, due largely to TURKEY’s repressive crackdown measures on all opposition movements. It is important to note that, several months ago, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan allowed TURKEY’s two-year state of emergency to come to an end but as trials of dissidents and journalists continue, human rights campaigners continue to pressure TURKEY to do more to reverse a suffocating crackdown on free speech. Critics claim that the state of emergency, in place since the failed “Coup D’État” in July of 2016 that killed 250 people and wounded 1,400, has been used to detain opponents of the governing AKP for lengthy periods of time without trial to intimidate dissidents and to prosecute media outlets. That is, more than 120,000 people in the police, military, academia, media and civil service have been detained or dismissed from their jobs, over their alleged links to Fethullah Gulen, who is the exiled TURKISH preacher based now in the U.S., who TURKEY blames as the brains behind the operations for the failed “Coup D’État”.

However, the behaviours of TURKEY’s governing AKP seem to be taking their toll on the TURKISH economy as turbulent politics have resulted in economic turmoil whereby the sliding TURKISH Lira set-off alarm bells across TURKEY as businesses struggle to cope with the financial impacts of a declining TURKISH Lira. Unfortunately, TURKEY’s fragile economy recently received another economic blow when TURKEY’s growth forecasts for this year and next year were dramatically reduced, triggering further drops in the value of the TURKISH Lira. It is important to note that TURKISH Finance Minister Berat Albayrak stated that growth would be 3.8% this year and 2.3% in 2019, both revised downwards from the initial forecasts of 5.5%. Ironically, TURKEY’s finance minister insisted that TURKEYS’s economy did not face any significant risks, despite the TURKISH Lira plunging to its lowest point after new economic data was released that points to the risk of a sharp economic slowdown in TURKEY. However, the drop in the TURKISH Lira that had lost about 40% of its value against the U.S. dollar this year, hitting severe lows in October’ 2018, after TURKEY’s economic confidence index also hit extreme lows, has recovered slightly since. It is important to note that U.S. rating agency Moody’s downgraded 20 TURKISH financial institutions due to increased risks of a sudden shift in investor sentiment that could leave TURKISH banks struggling to attract foreign financing that keeps TURKISH banking sector liquid.

Thus, TURKISH banks that borrowed heavily abroad now face the near impossible task of refinancing short-term debt in expensive U.S. Dollars and E.U. Euros. It is important to note that around $180 billion in TURKISH foreign debt matures from now until the end of July of 2019, of which approximately $145 billion is owed by the private sector, particularly TURKISH banks, which borrowed heavily abroad in foreign denominated currencies. Therefore, TURKEY will be hit with a currency mismatch as TURKEY mostly earns returns on investments in TURKISH Lira, while it has to payback its foreign currency denominated debt by converting a plummeting TURKISH Lira, resulting in significantly higher debt payments. However, this week TURKISH Finance Minister, Berat Albayrak, continued to focus on the TURKISH economy, by cutting the amount of cash lenders are required to hold in reserves, for the first time in six months, as the TURKISH central bank tries to stimulate credit growth without triggering any drastic changes in TURKEY’s tight economic policy position. It is important to note that with its crisis-level economic monetary settings on hold for three consecutive TURKISH central bank meetings, the central bank announced that it’s lowering of the reserve ratio requirements should release US$ 623 million from required minimum reserves triggering US$ 2.3 billion being released into the economy in the form of additional lending capacities for the financial system.

Thus, TURKISH Finance Minister Berat Albayrak who declared war on soaring inflation and called on TURKEY’s businesses to cut prices by 10% to counter runaway inflation, that has driven up the price of everything from food to fuel, and sent inflation to 25% during October’ 2018, its highest in 15 years continued with the firm stance of implementing this policy. Furthermore, TURKEY has already resorted to the seizure of numerous companies that have been accused of conspiring against the TURKISH government with speculation, opportunism and stockpiling. Furthermore, TURKISH police have also raided businesses, based on accusations of speculation, and shops and supermarkets, based on allegations of price gouging. Thus, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is calling on consumers to report shops and businesses for excessive price hikes in order for the police to investigate and resolve accordingly. However, the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK), the TURKISH watchdog, stated that the TURKISH banking sector’s sound and healthy structure continues at full strength. Therefore, the TURKISH banking sector’s current capital structure is fully capable of withstanding asset quality-driven risks.

However, this week, the main TURKISH opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu was forced to create an alliance with the IYI (Good) Party by formally agreeing to cooperate in a total of 56 provinces. It is important to note that while their Nation Alliance will present joint candidates in 56 provinces, 24 out of which are metropolises, IYI (Good) Party will propose its own candidates in 14 metropolitan cities and 30 provinces. Ironically, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government is now making low cost credit a centrepiece of the governing AKP’s campaign for upcoming elections, meaning that banks will be pressured to take bigger risks although they are still dealing with a deep economic downturn. It is important to note that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is pressuring state-run TURKISH banks to extend money to clients including credit card debtors, soccer clubs and companies operating across the economy. Furthermore, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also designing the governing AKP’s platform to force private sector banks to follow suit with TURKISH banks in order to help return TURKEY to economic growth potential. However, private banking institutions are currently focusing on negotiating with indebted businesses on the repayment of billions of dollars of arrears on loans while struggling with a surge in bad credit such that they will have a difficult time conforming with revised governing AKP objectives to lend more money. Thus, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is already laying the groundwork to blame the ailing TURKISH economy on outside foreign powers, such as George Soros, who is the famous Hungarian Jew that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan previously blamed for apparently conspiring against the TURKISH government to divide and shatter the TURKISH nation. Nonetheless, two opinion polls suggest TURKISH economic woes will sway the outcome of the upcoming TURKISH elections, with the ailing TURKISH economy and high unemployment at the top of the list of what people see as TURKEY’s primary problems.

However, TURKEY’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued to warn the SYRIAN regime, RUSSIA and IRAN that an all-out military offensive on IDLIB could lead to a disastrous outcome for TURKEY by triggering a new wave of refugees heading towards the TURKISH borders. Thus, the world has been bracing for weeks for the Bashar al-Assad Syrian Arab Army (SAA) to attack IDLIB, where around 2.5 million civilians are living in opposition-held territory with no clear escape routes if fighting escalates. Hence, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reached a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA, in recent months, to prevent an all-out attack on IDLIB, as TURKEY is worried that an attack on IDLIB will trigger a mass exodus of refugees fleeing towards the TURKISH border. It is important to note that the weapons, which have entered SYRIA in large quantities, in recent months, including ammunition and GRAD rockets, clearly indicated that TURKEY would be providing complete TURKISH military support, for a long drawn-out battle over IDLIB, if necessary, that functioned as an effective deterrent from a full scale attack by the SAA and its RUSSIAN and IRANIAN backed allies. However, in recent months, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which includes former AL-QAEDA terrorist fighters among its ranks, seems to be attempting to consolidate power in northern SYRIA with waves of arrests of civilians during the TURKEY and RUSSIAN brokered ceasefire.

It is important to note that HTS signed a ceasefire deal with what was left of the rival NLF alliance that sees HTS supremacy and unison of the region under a HTS led administration. However, the SAA still appears to be preparing for a full fledge assault on IDLIB, as the war between the SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad and rebel forces appear to be entering the final phase, as the U.S. announces its intention for a complete withdrawal from SYRIA. Thus, the Free Syrian Police (FSP), a symbol of SYRIA’s revolution and a recipient of international support, ceased operations following the HTS takeover of IDLIB. However, civilians, members of civil society and activists, who saw the unarmed and independent FSP as a military force for good, see the decision by the FSP to disband as a shocking surprise. Thus, the RUSSIAN foreign ministry announced that the situation was rapidly deteriorating such that IDLIB was almost under the full control of the HTS rebel group, previously linked to al-Qaeda that should trigger a coordinated military effort between RUSSIA and TURKEY to stabilise the situation in IDLIB. Thus, this week, extremist factions within the HTS alliance appear to be responsible for a double bomb attack that killed at least 15 people, including four children, while wounding at least 50 other civilians, whereby the first blast was caused by an explosive device planted under a car during rush hour, and the second blast by a motorcycle bomb that detonated after ambulances arrived at the scene of the first blast. Unfortunately, there were a rising number of civilian casualties due to intensified attacks by SAA forces and their allies against ISIS militants and other HTS rebels in northern IDLIB and surrounding areas. It is important to note that SAA forces and their allies have escalated bombardments from the ground in the so-called demilitarized de-escalation zone in recent weeks that includes IDLIB and areas of northern HAMA and western ALEPPO.

However, in an unusual chain of events that triggered a change of fate, international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY continues, whereby the SAUDI ARABIAN officials had promised consequences for anyone, even a member of the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family, found responsible for the assassination. Thus, TURKEY has led a relentless campaign to hold SAUDI ARABIA accountable, as TURKISH authorities have allowed media leaks to the international press. Furthermore, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan formally denounced SAUDI ARABIA for initially trying to deny involvement in the killing, as after weeks of lying, SAUDI ARABIA finally admitted that Jamal Khashoggi was dead, such that as per TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, covering up this kind of savagery will hurt the conscience of all humanity. Thus, this week, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan discussed steps needed to stabilise the situation in IDLIB where they agreed on the need for coordinated efforts to battle against the terrorist organisations in the region. The RUSSIAN foreign ministry highlighted this week that the situation was rapidly deteriorating such that IDLIB was almost under the full control of the HTS rebel group, previously linked to al-Qaeda. It is important to note that the continuously postponed IDLIB offensive is becoming more inevitable such that the TURKISH Army may need to get involved with the war against HTS terrorist rebels if TURKEY does not choose to pull back its troops from the military posts around IDLIB.

Nonetheless, in an unusual twist of fate, CIA Director Gina Haspel obviously presented a solid case behind her conclusion that there is a high level of confidence that Crown Prince MBS was complicit in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. Thus, CIA Director Gina Haspel garnered extensive support for her conclusion from both top Republican and top Democratic leaders to the point that the entire Senate Committee voted unanimously to overrule U.S. President Donald Trump by officially blaming Crown Prince MBS for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. Thus, the official response from the SAUDI ARABIAN Foreign Ministry was that Saudi Arabia categorically rejects any interference in its internal affairs, any and all accusations, in any manner, that disrespect its leadership, and any attempts to undermine its sovereignty or diminish its stature. Thus, in a decisive move by Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family, they have ceased offering new versions of their own account of what transpired, with the final official SAUDI ARABIAN version remaining, that the SAUDI ARABIAN assassins killed Jamal Khashoggi with an injection of sedatives, and then immediately set to work dismembering him and hiding his remains. Hence, SAUDI ARABIA put the Jamal Khashoggi murder suspects on trial, whereby the prosecutor, SAUDI ARABIA’s attorney general, demanded the death penalty for 5 of the 11 suspects.

Nonetheless, Agnes Callamard, the U.N. special investigator on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions who is heading an independent international inquiry into the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, released her preliminary conclusions. Thus, the official statement by the U.N. that the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, was a brutal and premeditated killing, which was planned by SAUDI ARABIAN officials, was expected. However, a further allegation from the U.N. inquiry that SAUDI ARABIA seriously undermined TURKEY’s efforts to investigate the murder was surprising. That is, Agnes Callamard stated that woefully inadequate time and access was granted to TURKISH investigators to conduct a professional and effective crime-scene examination and search required by international standards for investigation. In particular, TURKEY was not allowed into the SAUDI ARABIAN consul where Jamal Khashoggi was killed for 13 days.

Therefore, slain journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s fiancée, Hatice Cengiz, is now urging the European Union (E.U.) to transcend economic interests and exert pressure on Saudi Arabia to insure justice prevails in this sensational killing, that is still headlining news internationally. It is important to note that Hatice Cengiz was speaking as one of the victims of human rights abuses in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, who were invited by the E.U. Parliament’s subcommittee on human rights to give evidence. Hatice Cengiz stressed that the system turned against Jamal Khashoggi such that if a prominent personality such as Jamal Khashoggi could be targeted the way he was, then anybody could fall victim of this system. It is important to note that Jamal Khashoggi was working to promote reconciliation between the SAUDI ARABIAN and IRANIAN people prior to his murder whereby Jamal Khashoggi called for civil society organisations in both countries to be voices of reason and moderation even as their respective governments risked entering into further conflict. Ironically, one of Jamal Khashoggi’s last articles called on leaders in SAUDI ARABIA and IRAN to stop meddling in the internal affairs of other countries, while focusing on the death and devastation caused by both countries’ involvement in wars in SYRIA and YEMEN, while urging both countries to start respecting human rights. Furthermore, Jamal Khashoggi stressed that the governments were stuck digging in their heels in a dangerous staring contest that could soon erupt into something worse, such that it is up to the people to be the voices of reason and moderation, something all peoples take pride in, whereby civil society should spearhead reconciliation efforts with mutual understanding amongst people.

It is important to note that thus far, it has only been Germany that has banned arms exports to SAUDI ARABIA after the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, when German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that her coalition government would halt all arms equipment exports to its second-biggest customer, SAUDI ARABIA that instantly put pressure on other major exporters to follow suit. Ironically, other E.U. countries did not subsequently decide to join the GERMANS, although the GERMAN ban will soon be felt in some other E.U. countries. That is, the U.K. and FRANCE are now voicing their concerns that the GERMAN ban could have a severe impact on arms equipment exports to SAUDI ARABIA from other E.U. nations. For example, representatives of BAE Systems, the U.K.’s key weapons company, have raised their concerns about future access to crucial parts of Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets, which are partly produced in GERMANY. Furthermore, the GERMAN exports ban has also affected air-to-air missiles for Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets, produced by a joint venture that is partly owned by European aerospace giant Airbus, where GERMANY is a shareholder. Obviously, when GERMANY banned sales to SAUDI ARABIA, it not only barred fully assembled products such as ships, but also high-tech components used by companies across the E.U. such that GERMANY may have been able to reduce its overall arms exports to SAUDI ARABIA, but GERMANY remains an E.U. center for high-tech components, that GERMANY may be forced to continue to supply regardless of the direct arms export ban.

IRAQ News

As a friendly reminder, there were two obvious potential outcomes from IRAQI political party negotiations with substantial regional and international consequences. That is, the first potential outcome was a coalition headed by Moqtada al-Sadr that would probably mean a diminishing U.S. presence in IRAQ combined with an IRAQI government that is independent of IRAN’s influence, while reintegrating an independent and sovereign IRAQ into the Arab world. Conversely, the second potential outcome was a coalition headed by the pro-IRANIAN Fatah Alliance representing the SHIITE militias, along with parties loyal to former Prime Ministers Haider al-Abadi and Nouri al-Maliki, as well as smaller groups such as the Kurdistan Coalition, that would result in an overtly pro-IRANIAN government. Thus, in spite of dramatic differences, the three parties that gained the most votes in IRAQ’s May 12, 2018 parliamentary elections agreed to work together to form a new IRAQI government. Thus, after the dust settled, Barham Salih was voted by parliament into the position of President with his first act naming Adil Abdul-Mahdi to be prime minister, who formed the new government during November’ 2018. Ironically, IRAQ’s prime minister-designate Adel Abdul Mahdi presented his new cabinet to the IRAQI parliament for approval, although he has no parliamentary block of his own to stand on, and is thus dependent on the blocks of cleric MUQTADA AL-SADR and pro-IRANIAN militia leader HADI AL-AMIRI for his position.

Furthermore, uncertainty appeared to be looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, while the traditional political parties remain strong, such that the new president and prime minister will have a difficult time translating recent political developments into concrete changes. However, it is important to note that for the first time ever, the IRAQI parliament voted freely for IRAQ’s next president, with Barham Salih winning by a landslide vote of 219 to 22 over his competitor, while in the past, the parliamentary vote served mainly as a rubber-stamp of election results. Furthermore, immediately after Barham Salih was sworn in as President, he designated Adil Abdal-Mehdi to become prime minister, who is the first prime minister not to come from the Islamic Dawa Party, which has dominated post-invasion IRAQI politics. Nonetheless, further complicating the situation in IRAQ is the U.S. re-imposing sanctions against IRAN as IRAQ finds itself caught in the crossfire between its key allies of IRAN and the U.S. such that IRAQ’s economy could suffer the worst economic collateral damage from the U.S. sanctions on IRAN. Ironically, as soon as the most recent round of U.S. sanctions hit IRAN, the IRAQI Prime Minister stated that IRAQ would reluctantly comply but one week later, reality hit IRAQ whereby many IRAQIS forced the IRAQI government to maintain trade relations with IRAN. Thus, IRAQI’s new Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi had no choice but to formally request that the U.S. provide certain exemptions to IRAQ on specific critical IRANIAN goods with an IRAQI delegation set to travel to Washington as soon as the U.S. counterparts are ready to meet.

Nonetheless, deadly protests continued to rage in IRAQ over the lack of basic services and government corruption as IRAQI security forces were bracing with a rise in violence that has resulted in more solidarity protests throughout IRAQ as activists look to create momentum in their protests against intermittent electricity availabilities, undrinkable water, unemployment and frustrations with the political system. Furthermore, tensions were once again high in IRAQ this week, as speculations among IRAQI officials that the U.S. will begin to draw down the 5,200 U.S. military personnel based in IRAQ, in view of the defeat of ISIS on the ground in late 2017, and subsequent to U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a complete withdrawal from SYRIA. Thus, SAUDI ARABIAN Crown Prince MBS offered his full support for IRAQ’s continued security in a telephone call with Prime Minister Adel Abdel-Mahdi to fill the void left behind by a potential U.S. withdrawal from IRAQ. Contemporaneously, IRAQI Prime Minister Adel Abdel-Mahdi expressed full support of Saudi Arabia’s initiatives to support IRAQ’s permanent security and prosperity. Furthermore, this week, IRAQ finds itself caught in the crossfire as U.S. President Donald Trump plans to revert U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East by an eventual complete withdrawal of U.S. troops. However, with the impending U.S. withdrawal, IRAQ appears to be on high alert for ISIS fighters fleeing SYRIA, as there are legitimate security concerns that the fleeing ISIS militia will attempt to regroup in areas they once controlled in northern and western IRAQ. Nonetheless, U.S. backed SYRIAN forces fighting ISIS transferred more than 150 IRAQI ISIS fighters back to the IRAQI military, marking the biggest repatriation of ISIS fighters captured from SYRIA to date. It is important to note that the transfer comes as the U.S. backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are involved in a standoff with ISIS over the final pocket of land held by ISIS in eastern SYRIA, BAGHOUZ, close to the IRAQI border. In summary, a couple of hundred people, many of them women and children, were evacuated from ISIS’s last major pocket along the Euphrates River, as an imminent end to the territorial rule of ISIS, that once stretched across a third of both Syria and Iraq.

SYRIA News

As a friendly reminder, in recent months, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN allies retook a town, DERAA, that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war, that engulfed SYRIA for over seven years now, as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag, in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war. It is important to note that the SAA along with their RUSSIAN allies now continue to focus their attention on IDLIB where they have vowed to wipe out all terrorists. It is important to note that the SAA and RUSSIA have signalled that an all-out offensive to retake the last rebel-held province in SYRIA consisting of IDLIB is only a matter of time. Therefore, the SAA and RUSSIA have triggered rising fears over a major humanitarian crisis as it has become evident that IDLIB will eventually be subjected to an intense bombing campaign.

Therefore, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave the HTS rebels inside the IDLIB buffer zone another warning to leave the designated RUSSIA and TURKEY designated demilitarized zone. Furthermore, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made it clear that if HTS rebels refuse to leave the designated demilitarized zone, TURKEY will allow the SAA and RUSSIAN Air Force to resume their operations against them in northwestern SYRIA. However, SYRIAN Foreign Minister Walid Al-Mu’allem stated that retaking IDLIB province, and liberating IDLIB from terrorism, is a top priority for the SYRIAN government, such that the primary objective is to contain the terrorists in IDLIB through dialogue, as the SAA prefers to take this route in order to avoid bloodshed. Thus, an opposition government in IDLIB backed by HTS, imposed Islamic Sharia law, which calls for severe retribution for lawbreakers, in order to consolidate their power in the region.

Furthermore, terrorists based in SYRIA’s IDLIB province have threatened to launch a large-scale operation on the northern areas of neighbouring Latakia and Hama provinces, while organizing large-scale attacks, although the SAA is taking appropriate measures and is ready to repel possible attacks. It is important to note that this week, that HTS signed a ceasefire deal with what was left of the rival NLF alliance, that sees HTS supremacy and unison of the region under a HTS led administration. However, the SAA still appears to be preparing for a full fledge assault on IDLIB, as the war between the SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad and rebel forces appear to be entering the final phase, as the U.S. announces its intention for a complete withdrawal from SYRIA. Thus, the Free Syrian Police (FSP), a symbol of SYRIA’s revolution and a recipient of international support, ceased operations following the HTS takeover of IDLIB. However, civilians, members of civil society and activists, who saw the unarmed and independent FSP as a military force for good, see the decision by the FSP to disband as a shocking surprise. Thus, the RUSSIAN foreign ministry announced that the situation was rapidly deteriorating such that IDLIB was almost under the full control of the HTS rebel group, previously linked to al-Qaeda that should trigger a coordinated military effort between RUSSIA and TURKEY to stabilise the situation in IDLIB. Thus, this week, extremist factions within the HTS alliance appear to be responsible for a double bomb attack that killed at least 15 people, including four children, while wounding at least 50 other civilians, whereby the first blast was caused by an explosive device planted under a car during rush hour, and the second blast by a motorcycle bomb that detonated after ambulances arrived at the scene of the first blast. Unfortunately, there were a rising number of civilian casualties due to intensified attacks by SAA forces and their allies against ISIS militants and other HTS rebels in northern IDLIB and surrounding areas. It is important to note that SAA forces and their allies have escalated bombardments from the ground in the so-called demilitarized de-escalation zone in recent weeks that includes IDLIB and areas of northern HAMA and western ALEPPO.

Meanwhile, the tensions between IRAN and ISRAEL seem to have continued to escalate again after ISRAELI airstrikes targeted IRANIAN military infrastructure inside SYRIA, in recent months. Obviously, IRAN condemned the wave of ISRAELI air strikes in SYRIA and clearly stated that these attacks by ISRAEL represent a blatant violation of SYRIA’s sovereignty such that IRAN has backed SYRIA’s right to defend itself against ISRAEL. It is important to note that the strikes were the heaviest strikes carried out by ISRAEL on SYRIA in decades that came right after twenty rockets were fired at ISRAELI military positions in the occupied Golan Heights of SYRIA. It is no secret that the strikes hurt IRAN that has deployed hundreds of troops inside SYRIA as military advisers to the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) while thousands of IRANIAN militia armed, trained and financed by IRAN, have also been battling SYRIAN rebel forces alongside the SAA. ISRAEL stated that ISRAELI fighter jets struck almost IRAN’s entire military infrastructure inside Syria consisting of some 70 targets in ISRAELS biggest assault since SYRIA’s civil war commenced in 2011.

Subsequently, the tone escalated between ISRAEL and IRAN, as ISRAEL continues to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to be adamant that the IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, in recent months, IRANIAN forces did pull back from the Golan Heights that seems to be a step in the right direction. However, tensions seemed to have risen with IRANIAN’s fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency that has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. The new sanctions target IRANIAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN’s auto sector although the toughest sanctions targeting oil exports have only taken effect recently. However, IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani clearly stated that IRAN would not let the enemy bring IRAN to its knees such that if the enemy thinks they will defeat IRAN, they will take their hope to the grave with them.

Hence, U.S. President, Donald Trump, warned that the U.S. is developing a new strategy for the war in SYRIA that would focus more heavily on pushing IRAN’s military and its proxy forces out of SYRIA. However, U.S. President, Donald Trump, then seemed to realize that he needed an ally in the Middle East and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY. Nonetheless, U.S. President, Donald Trump, seemed to have initially sided with the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty. Obviously, with the IRANIAN oil embargo plans that took effect on November 5, 2018, when sanctions kicked-in, success of the embargo depends on SAUDI ARABIA pumping extra oil to compensate for the anticipated shortfall.

Nonetheless, in an unusual twist of fate, CIA Director Gina Haspel obviously presented a solid case behind her conclusion that there is a high level of confidence that Crown Prince MBS was complicit in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. Thus, CIA Director Gina Haspel has garnered extensive support for her conclusion from both top Republican and top Democratic leaders to the point that the entire Senate Committee voted unanimously to overrule U.S. President Donald Trump by officially blaming Crown Prince MBS for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. Thus, the official response from the SAUDI ARABIAN Foreign Ministry was that Saudi Arabia categorically rejects any interference in its internal affairs, any and all accusations, in any manner, that disrespect its leadership, and any attempts to undermine its sovereignty or diminish its stature. Thus, in a decisive move by Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family, they have ceased offering new versions of their own account of what transpired, with the final official SAUDI ARABIAN version remaining, that the SAUDI ARABIAN assassins killed Jamal Khashoggi with an injection of sedatives, and then immediately set to work dismembering him and hiding his remains. Hence, SAUDI ARABIA put the Jamal Khashoggi murder suspects on trial, whereby the prosecutor, SAUDI ARABIA’s attorney general, demanded the death penalty for 5 of the 11 suspects.

Nonetheless, Agnes Callamard, the U.N. special investigator on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions who spent last week in TURKEY to head an independent international inquiry into the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, released her preliminary conclusions. Thus, the official statement by the U.N. that the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, was a brutal and premeditated killing, which was planned by SAUDI ARABIAN officials, was expected. However, a further allegation from the U.N. inquiry that SAUDI ARABIA seriously undermined TURKEY’s efforts to investigate the murder was surprising. That is, Agnes Callamard stated that woefully inadequate time and access was granted to TURKISH investigators to conduct a professional and effective crime-scene examination and search required by international standards for investigation. In particular, TURKEY was not allowed into the SAUDI ARABIAN consul where Jamal Khashoggi was killed for 13 days.

Therefore, slain journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s fiancée, Hatice Cengiz, is now urging the European Union (E.U.) to transcend economic interests and exert pressure on Saudi Arabia to insure justice prevails in this sensational killing, that is still headlining news internationally. It is important to note that Hatice Cengiz was speaking as one of the victims of human rights abuses in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, who were invited by the E.U. Parliament’s subcommittee on human rights to give evidence. Hatice Cengiz stressed that the system turned against Jamal Khashoggi such that if a prominent personality such as Jamal Khashoggi could be targeted the way he was, then anybody could fall victim of this system. It is important to note that Jamal Khashoggi was working to promote reconciliation between the SAUDI ARABIAN and IRANIAN people prior to his murder whereby Jamal Khashoggi called for civil society organisations in both countries to be voices of reason and moderation even as their respective governments risked entering into further conflict. Ironically, one of Jamal Khashoggi’s last articles called on leaders in SAUDI ARABIA and IRAN to stop meddling in the internal affairs of other countries, while focusing on the death and devastation caused by both countries’ involvement in wars in SYRIA and YEMEN, while urging both countries to start respecting human rights. Furthermore, Jamal Khashoggi stressed that the governments were stuck digging in their heels in a dangerous staring contest that could soon erupt into something worse, such that it is up to the people to be the voices of reason and moderation, something all peoples take pride in, whereby civil society should spearhead reconciliation efforts with mutual understanding amongst people.

It is important to note that thus far, it has only been Germany that has banned arms exports to SAUDI ARABIA after the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, when German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that her coalition government would halt all arms equipment exports to its second-biggest customer, SAUDI ARABIA that instantly put pressure on other major exporters to follow suit. Ironically, other E.U. countries did not subsequently decide to join the GERMANS, although the GERMAN ban will soon be felt in some other E.U. countries. That is, the U.K. and FRANCE are now voicing their concerns that the GERMAN ban could have a severe impact on arms equipment exports to SAUDI ARABIA from other E.U. nations. For example, representatives of BAE Systems, the U.K.’s key weapons company, have raised their concerns about future access to crucial parts of Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets, which are partly produced in GERMANY. Furthermore, the GERMAN exports ban has also affected air-to-air missiles for Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets, produced by a joint venture that is partly owned by European aerospace giant Airbus, where GERMANY is a shareholder. Obviously, when GERMANY banned sales to SAUDI ARABIA, it not only barred fully assembled products such as ships, but also high-tech components used by companies across the E.U. such that GERMANY may have been able to reduce its overall arms exports to SAUDI ARABIA, but GERMANY remains an E.U. center for high-tech components, that GERMANY may be forced to continue to supply regardless of the direct arms export ban.

TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

This week’s focus in TURKEY seemed to shift to the TURKISH struggling economy, largely attributable to a lack of confidence by foreign investors, due largely to TURKEY’s repressive crackdown measures on all opposition movements. In my opinion, over the last two plus years, TURKEY has been radically transformed with emergency measures used to consolidate authoritarian powers, silence opposition voices and take away basic human rights and civil liberties. However, the behaviours of TURKEY’s governing AKP seem to be taking their toll on the TURKISH economy, as turbulent politics have resulted in economic turmoil, whereby the sliding TURKISH Lira has set-off alarm bells across TURKEY, as businesses struggle to cope with the financial impacts of a declining TURKISH Lira. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blaming the rest of the world for waging an economic war against TURKEY, while most reputable economists would tend to agree that the TURKISH government has forced their central banks to follow counterproductive, if not destructive economic policies, is a sure sign that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is living in a delusional reality.

In my opinion, the underlying problem is that TURKISH banks and companies borrowed a lot of U.S. dollars, as TURKISH foreign currency debt represents about 30% of TURKEY’s GDP, such that TURKEY is now struggling to pay down the debt as the TURKISH Lira is falling. In my opinion, TURKEY’s economy is struggling in large part due to the TURKISH Lira losing almost 40% of its value against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year, albeit recovering slightly since it hit its lows during October’ 2018. In my opinion, there are a slew of reasons dissuading investors from TURKEY, but at the end of the day, many investors continue to try to liquidate their TURKISH Lira given that it has been dropping fast since the beginning of the year. Thus, the solution from my point-of-view is quite obvious, that TURKEY needs to raise interest rates in order to counter its problems of high inflation and a declining TURKISH Lira, while its economy should be able to bear the brunt of higher interest rates, without significant drops in current production levels.

Thus, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued to focus on TURKEY’s fragile economy, that received another economic blow recently, when TURKEY’s growth forecasts for this year and next were dramatically reduced, triggering further drops in the value of the TURKISH Lira. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY seems to find itself in an awkward position, like a dog chasing its tail, as TURKEY has seen its currency plunge over 40% this year, over investor concerns about President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s influence over monetary policy and a horrible diplomatic separation from the U.S. In my opinion, the TURKISH economic turbulence has shaken global financial markets and created the potential for a banking crisis that could have a disastrous domino effect across the entire global financial markets. In my opinion, TURKEY’s banks face a potential barrage of bad debts as the TURKISH Lira sell-off has driven up the cost for companies to service their foreign currency denominated loans.

That is, TURKISH companies have been borrowing in U.S. Dollars and Euros for years, to take advantage of lower interest rates, but it appears that the private sector has accumulated over $145 billion in foreign currency denominated debt, maturing during the upcoming year. Nonetheless, Berat Albayrak, TURKEY’s finance minister stated that TURKEY does not foresee a big risk on the TURKISH economy and banking system as the TURKISH economy has strong fundamentals. Hence, although THE ROCK kindly and politely offered his consulting services to Berat Albayrak to help TURKEY straighten out their economic and geopolitical mess, Berat Albayrak seems to be heading in the right direction as TURKEY continued this week to focus on the TURKISH economy. In my opinion, this week’s announcement that the TURKISH government would cut the amount of cash lenders are required to hold in reserves, for the first time in six months, should definitely stimulate credit growth without triggering any drastic changes in TURKEY’s tight economic policy position. In my opinion, the central bank’s announcement is brilliant as by lowering the reserve ratio requirements, US$ 623 million should be released from the required minimum reserves while triggering US$ 2.3 billion being released into the economy in the form of additional lending capacities for the financial system.

In my opinion, Berat Albayrak sounds like President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which is not surprising as he is his son-in-law such that Berat Albayrak seems to be significantly influenced by the President and seems to be extremely reluctant to go against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s firm belief in the need to maintain interest rates stable at around 17%. However, in my opinion, TURKEY faces the risk of a rapid slowdown in the TURKISH economy that could potentially culminate in a difficult recession unless TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, takes urgent steps to rebalance the TURKISH economy while fuelling investor confidence. In my opinion, TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, acted appropriately, by declaring war on soaring inflation and calling on TURKEY’s businesses to cut prices by 10% to counter runaway inflation, that has driven up the price of everything from food to fuel, and sent inflation to 25% last month, its highest in 15 years. In my opinion, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s unorthodox brand of economics whereby inflation should not be contained by raising interest rates or other traditional measures, but rather by employing supply-side measures to reduce costs, may very well work for medium, large and government controlled organizations.

In my opinion, the main TURKISH opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu made the right strategic decision this week, by succumbing to pressure to create an alliance with the IYI (Good) Party by formally agreeing to cooperate in a total of 56 provinces, 24 out of which are metropolises. In my opinion, the People’s Alliance between the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) that expanded further to cover 51 out of 81 provinces triggering the necessity for CHP and IYI under the Nation Alliance. In regards to TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government now making low cost credit a centrepiece of the governing AKP’s campaign for upcoming elections, meaning that banks will be pressured to take bigger risks although they are still dealing with a deep economic downturn, it is my opinion that the banks will make the final judgement calls. That is, in my opinion, banking institutions are currently focusing on negotiating with indebted businesses on the repayment of billions of dollars of arrears on loans while struggling with a surge in bad credit such that they will have a difficult time conforming with revised governing AKP objectives to lend more money. Hence, in my opinion, it looks like the governing AKP is understating risks while focusing on the positive economic benefits in order to bolster its electoral platform. However, in my opinion, many of the measures introduced by the governing AKP in order to address troubled debt and delinquent credit cards are cosmetic in nature, by simply sweeping things under the table such that there is no such thing as a miracle solution as ultimately someone will have to bear the brunt of losses on default positions.

Nonetheless, the ailing TURKISH economy is a major issue for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who built his political success on supercharging TURKISH economic growth and prosperity that will now be put to the electoral test. Thus, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will once again try to blame the ailing TURKISH economy on outside foreign powers, such that he will probably return to his previous stance of comparing Jews to bacteria, and referring to the Jews as The Mastermind conspiracy preventing TURKEY from taking their rightful place as a world superpower. Thus, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see this week two opinion polls suggesting that TURKISH economic woes will sway the outcome of the upcoming TURKISH elections, with the ailing TURKISH economy and high unemployment at the top of the list of what people see as TURKEY’s primary problems. In my opinion, what is surprising to see is that the surveys point to a decline in popular support for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s governing AKP in power since 2002. Thus, in my opinion, the governing AKP will once again be forced to form a coalition with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which was its electoral ally during the last polls, while the governing AKP will also be forced to change the popular focus on the economy to avoid a downgrade from its majority status or even worse losing at the next TURKISH elections.

In my opinion, I was not surprised to see TURKEY focus its attention on IDLIB and continue to warn the SYRIAN regime, RUSSIA and IRAN, that an all-out military offensive on IDLIB could lead to a disastrous outcome for TURKEY, by triggering a new wave of refugees heading towards the TURKISH borders. In my opinion, TURKEY has already sheltered 3.5 million SYRIANS such that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is under significant domestic pressure to not take in any more refugees. Nonetheless, RUSSIA’s worries about AL-QAEDA linked terrorist groups based in IDLIB are legitimate but a full-scale military attack is not the way to deal with this situation as it will certainly put the lives of all innocent civilians at risk and create a humanitarian crisis. Thus, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan needs to receive full credit for being able to negotiate a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA, in recent months, to spare IDLIB from disastrous consequences for the time being. In my opinion, the large quantities of weapons entering SYRIA, in recent months, indicated that TURKEY would be providing complete TURKISH military support for a long drawn-out battle over IDLIB, if necessary. Thus, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin once again made the right strategic decision to hold back the SAA and IRANIANS from engaging in a full fledge military assault on IDLIB that in my opinion will have disastrous consequences for all parties. However, in my opinion the withdrawal of all the so-called radical fighters from the area by October 15, that includes hardline Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is dominated by a rebel faction previously linked to al-Qaeda, were obviously not yet persuaded to leave IDLIB peacefully.

Thus, in my opinion, the threats coming from terrorists based in SYRIA’s IDLIB province to launch a large-scale operation on the northern areas of neighbouring Latakia and Hama provinces should be taken seriously. Thus, in my opinion, this week’s HTS signed ceasefire deal with what was left of the rival NLF alliance that sees HTS supremacy and unison of the region under a HTS led administration will create more difficulties for the SAA. However, in my opinion, the U.S. announcement of its intention for a complete withdrawal from SYRIA, appears to have indirectly given the SAA the ability to prepare for a full fledge assault on IDLIB, as the war between the SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad and rebel forces appear to be entering the final phase, as President Bashar al-Assad now appears ready, willing and able to consolidate all of SYRIA under his control, while the rebels vow to fight until death to hold onto their respective territories. Thus, the Free Syrian Police (FSP), a symbol of SYRIA’s revolution and a recipient of international support, ceasing operations following the HTS takeover of IDLIB, is not surprising. However, in my opinion, the FSP operations should continue, instead of deploying other HTS elements connected to a military faction, as the damage in IDLIB will not likely be exacerbated as the FSP have stopped working on security, corruption and the spread of robberies and crimes.

Furthermore, in my opinion, a large number of police officers who are defectors from the FSP will be harmed by becoming unemployed, and thus will further damage the safety network of IDLIB society in general. Thus, in my opinion, the announcement by the RUSSIAN foreign ministry that the situation was rapidly deteriorating such that IDLIB was almost under the full control of the HTS rebel group, previously linked to al-Qaeda, should trigger a coordinated military effort between RUSSIA and TURKEY to stabilise the situation in IDLIB. Thus, this week, I was not surprised to see extremist factions within the HTS alliance appear to be responsible for a double bomb attack that killed at least 15 people, including four children, while wounding at least 50 other civilians, although there was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack. In regards to the rising number of civilian casualties due to intensified attacks by SAA forces and their allies against ISIS militants and other HTS rebels in northern IDLIB and surrounding areas, it is devastating to see large numbers of civilians, including hundreds of thousands of displaced people, in IDLIB and northern ALEPPO living is such intolerable situations. In my opinion, the innocent civilians are stuck between a rock and a hard place, in the sense that, they are trapped between the escalation of hostilities and bombardments on the one hand, while being forced to live under the extremist rule of HTS and other extremist fighters, on the other side, who regularly carry out targeted killings, abductions and arbitrary detentions to instil loyalty by fear in local residents. Hence, in my opinion, everybody understands that Jabhat al-Nusra should by no means be allowed to gain a firmer foothold in IDLIB, where it has in fact already tripled the area under its control, but rather moderate opposition forces need to be separated from terrorist groups. However, it is difficult to separate moderate opposition forces that can subsequently represent IDLIB at future negotiations, although everybody agrees that the only alternative to a full scale operation in IDLIB is separation of the opposition interested in a normal dialogue with the government of SYRIA from the terrorists, thus isolating the terrorists and forcing the continued elimination of terrorist groups.

In my opinion, the international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY has still not been resolved. Furthermore, consequences for anyone, even a member of the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family, found responsible for the assassination, must be enforced to the fullest extent of the law as the audio recordings of Jamal Khashoggi being assaulted, tortured, killed and dismembered inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate, are disturbing and down right psychopathic in nature. Thus, TURKEY led a relentless campaign to hold SAUDI ARABIA accountable, as TURKISH authorities have allowed media leaks to the international press. Thus, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see CIA Director Gina Haspel garnering extensive support for her conclusion, from both top Republican and top Democratic leaders. However, it was surprising to see the entire Senate Committee vote unanimously to overrule U.S. President Donald Trump, by officially blaming Crown Prince MBS for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. Nonetheless, in my opinion U.S. President Donald Trump has made the right decision to stick with Crown Price MBS on the basis that there is no substantive evidence to link him to the crime. Thus, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA appropriately denounced the U.S. Senate resolutions blaming Crown Prince MBS for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, as they were based on unsubstantiated claims. In my opinion, the Senate Committee vote was a rare rebuke to U.S. President Donald Trump, but largely symbolic in nature, as to become law, the Bill would need to pass the House of Representatives, whose Republican leaders have blocked any legislation intended to rebuke SAUDI ARABIA.

In my opinion, the final official SAUDI ARABIAN version remaining that the SAUDI ARABIAN assassins killed Jamal Khashoggi with an injection of sedatives, and then immediately set to work dismembering him and hiding his remains, clearly answers the question of who, what, when, where and how but the remaining question of why still remains unclear. In my opinion, the 11 Jamal Khashoggi murder suspects put on trial, demanding the death penalty for 5, is completely expected. However, in my opinion, the 5 death sentence decisions will in substance result in SAUDI ARABIA preventing those people responsible from speaking publicly. Thus, in my opinion, it is to the benefit of SAUDI ARABIA for the truth about Jamal Khashoggi to disappear with the 5 planned executions, such that at this stage it appears that SAUDI ARABIA will execute a 5 to 1 exchange.

Nonetheless, in my opinion, preliminary conclusions by the U.N. special investigator on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions heading an independent international inquiry into the murder of Jamal Khashoggi are not surprising. That is, in my opinion, the official statement by the U.N. that the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, was a brutal and premeditated killing, which was planned by SAUDI ARABIAN officials, was expected. However, a further allegation from the U.N. inquiry that SAUDI ARABIA seriously undermined TURKEY’s efforts to investigate the murder was not expected although this clearly demonstrates that the Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family control the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in TURKEY. Thus, SAUDI ARABIA appears to have been able to exercise control over the crime scene that obviously seriously undermined TURKEY’s efforts to investigate Jamal Khashoggi’s murder at the consulate in TURKEY. In my opinion, TURKEY was not allowed into the SAUDI ARABIAN consul where Jamal Khashoggi was killed for 13 days, in order to give SAUDI ARABIA enough time to insure that the trial of the 11 suspects in the case, would not produce any direct links to formal or informal authorization from the Crown Prince MBS or the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family. Therefore, I believe that Agnes Callamard’s assessment that efforts to undermine the investigation in TURKEY raises major concerns about transparency and fairness is valid justifying her request for an official visit to SAUDI ARABIA so that the SAUDI ARABIAN authorities can directly provide her with relevant evidence.

However, in my opinion, slain journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s fiancée, Hatice Cengiz, is now doing a fantastic job urging the European Union (E.U.) to transcend economic interests and exert pressure on Saudi Arabia to insure justice prevails in this sensational killing, that is still headlining news internationally. In my opinion, Hatice Cengiz hit the nail on the head when she stressed that the system turned against Jamal Khashoggi such that if a prominent personality such as Jamal Khashoggi could be targeted the way he was, then anybody could fall victim of this system. That is, these problems that exist within the MIDDLE EAST are not exclusive to the region, but rather transcend borders, such that it is dangerous to turn a blind eye, as the ramifications of the MIDDLE EAST political assassination driven problems transcend borders. In my opinion, with economic wealth being more and more concentrated amongst the elites worldwide, there is an increasing risk of political assassinations of dissidents, on the simple basis of the elite in substance being untouchable. Therefore, the facts revealed so far regarding the Jamal Khashoggi murder do not satisfy the E.U. and the human rights commission, such that the E.U. has been more vocal than the U.S. in its criticizing SAUDI ARABIA, albeit this criticism needs to be redirected into obtaining future concessions from SAUDI ARABIA, as the E.U. like the U.N. are attempting to beat a dead horse to death, although there is nothing more anybody can do at this stage to bring back Jamal Khashoggi. In my opinion, human rights activists such as his fiancée, Hatice Cengiz should focus their efforts on implementing Jamal Khashoggi’s vision as part of his last article before he was killed, as his work to promote reconciliation between the SAUDI ARABIAN and IRANIAN people seems to be the root cause behind him getting killed. In my opinion, poetic justice would seem to best be served if Jamal Khashoggi’s last words calling on leaders in SAUDI ARABIA and IRAN to stop meddling in the internal affairs of other countries were fulfilled. In my opinion, Jamal Khashoggi hit the nail of the head when he focused on the death and devastation caused by both countries’ involvement in wars in SYRIA and YEMEN, while urging both countries to start respecting human rights. Lastly, in my opinion, human rights activists should build on Jamal Khashoggi’s last thoughts whereby governments seem to be stuck digging in their heels in a dangerous staring contest that could soon erupt into something worse. Hence, at this stage it would seem more constructive to focus on changing the authoritarian mind sets in the MIDDLE EAST as opposed to overanalyzing the evidence behind the Jamal Khashoggi killing to the point of paralysis, as at the end of the day the elite class rules, such that Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family are under armour and bullet proof.

In regards to Germany that has banned arms exports to SAUDI ARABIA after the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, when German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that her coalition government would halt all arms equipment exports to its second-biggest customer, SAUDI ARABIA, GERMANY seemed to be the only country in the E.U. who were outraged over the SAUDI ARABIAN led intervention in YEMEN, followed by the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. However, in my opinion, Germany obviously set an international example with its ban, although the German decision was mostly symbolic, given that GERMANY’s exports to SAUDI ARABIA have been superseded by arms sales from the U.S., Britain and France in recent years. Therefore, it seems like the world has become like a giant game of charades whereby one chooses to set examples in those cases where one has little skin in the game, while shutting ones mouth when big investments are at stake, without any embarrassment or shame. In my opinion, when GERMANY banned sales to SAUDI ARABIA, it not only barred fully assembled products such as ships, but also high-tech components used by companies across the E.U. such that GERMANY may have been able to reduce its overall arms exports to SAUDI ARABIA, but GERMANY remains an E.U. center for high-tech components, such that GERMANY will most probably be forced to continue to supply the E.U. companies regardless of the direct arms export ban to SAUDI ARABIA. In my opinion, the supply of arms in the MIDDLE EAST should be handled in a similar fashion to the supply of narcotics, in the sense that the focus should be placed on reducing demand, by reducing tensions in the region along with constructive negotiating efforts to put an end to the raging civil wars, such that the GERMAN arms export ban is largely symbolic in nature, as whatever GERMANY refuses to supply, an alternative supply chain source will be found that complies. Thus, in my opinion, focusing on punishing SAUDI ARABIA for its sins of the past will have very little impact, while obtaining prospective concessions from SAUDI ARABIA consisting of: (1) Negotiate directly with representatives of the HOUTHI rebels to end the war in YEMEN; (2) End a blockade imposed by SAUDI ARABIA and three other ARAB states on QATAR, in June of last year seeking a political solution, in one of the worst diplomatic rifts with QATAR throughout its entire history; and (3) Release blogger Raif Badawi, women’s rights activists and other political prisoners held in SAUDI ARABIA.

Thus, in my opinion, the U.N. and the E.U. should leverage the current situation regarding the murder of Jamal Khashoggi to obtain concessions such as allowing a BRITISH panel of MP’s to go to SAIDI ARABIA to investigate allegations that women’s rights activists are being tortured and sexually harassed in detention. In my opinion, the U.K. has so far been stonewalled by SAUDI ARABIA in its efforts to access the eight detained women activists, arrested between May and July, and then branded as traitors in the SAUDI ARABIAN press. In my opinion, Human Rights Watch claims there have been credible reports from members of the women’s families that they have also been denied medical access, as well as maltreated. Therefore, in my opinion, this is an opportune time for the international community to pressure SAUDI ARABIA, as these women are celebrities of the international women’s movement, such that there is an enormous global focus on what is happening to them in the media. Thus, in my opinion, this is a clear opportunity for SAUDI ARABIA to send a strong signal to the world that things have changed in SAUDI ARABIA by agreeing to work with the BRITISH panel of MP’s to liberate the eight detained women activists.

IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

As a friendly reminder, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives, to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ has obtained the necessary political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ to avert a new set of extremists in IRAQ. That is, given that the SUNNIS were brought back into the IRAQI political system, that should be the end of a significant ISIS uprising, as if the SUNNIS are not satisfied with their political voice, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.

As a friendly reminder, either a coalition under Moqtada al-Sadr was expected to emerge or a pro-IRANIAN coalition under the Fatah Alliance was expected to emerge such that either way, it seemed that the U.S. presence in IRAQ would likely diminish over time. Ironically, after months of negotiations, Barham Salih was voted by parliament into the position of President with his first act naming Adil Abdul-Mahdi to be prime minister, who formed his government during November’ 2018. Thus, it seems that the results of the elections were bypassed for the benefit of stability, as this new duo represents the old IRAQI regime, as both have been active in IRAQI politics since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003. That is, President Barham Salih was previously deputy prime minister of IRAQ and Prime Minister of IRAQI Kurdistan while Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi was formerly vice president of IRAQ and more recently oil minister. Thus, in my opinion, the election of President Barham Salih, a KURD, and his nomination of Adil Abdul-Mahdi to be prime minister, a Shiite, seems to have broken months of political deadlock in IRAQ after an inconclusive May election result that everybody seems to have agreed to scrap. Nonetheless, with IRAQ’s prime minister-designate Adel Abdul Mahdi presenting his new cabinet to the IRAQI parliament for approval, although he has no parliamentary block of his own to stand on, and is thus dependent on the blocks of cleric MUQTADA AL-SADR and pro-IRANIAN militia leader HADI AL-AMIRI for his position, Adel Abdul Mahdi will most likely not be able to control IRAQI corruption or challenge existing underlying militia influences in IRAQ.

In regards to recent uncertainty looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, the new president and prime minister will have a difficult time translating recent political developments into concrete changes. Nonetheless, it is important to note that for the first time ever, the IRAQI parliament voted freely for IRAQ’s next president, with Barham Salih winning by a landslide vote of 219 to 22 over his competitor, representing a step in the right direction, given that Barham Salih acclaimed a clear majority. Thus, in my opinion, this vote marks a departure from last summer’s election shake-up, with some two-thirds of the members of IRAQI parliament now being new to the job, as growing protest movements exposed IRAQI citizen disillusionment with the political process, while increasing pressure on the IRAQI parliament for significant change. Nonetheless, in my opinion, poor governance, lack of public infrastructure and high levels of corruption, particularly in poor SUNNI areas, is helping to fuel ISIS’s objectives of a comeback after its crushing defeat. Unfortunately for IRAQ, the U.S. sanctions on IRAN seem to be arriving at the worst possible time, as the embargo on its IRANIAN neighbour could hit jobs in IRAQ and cut off a crucial source of relatively cheap imports into IRAQ.

In my opinion, with 80% of the products on the market in IRAQ being IRANIAN made, if the border closes, it will be an economic crisis for IRAQ. Thus, I was not surprised to see many IRAQIS pushing the IRAQI government to maintain trade relations with IRAN because IRAQ, which shares around 1,450 kilometers of border with IRAN, will be badly hurt by the IRANIAN sanctions. In my opinion, IRAQ relies on IRAN for gas supplies, electricity, water and food such that the U.S. has placed IRAQ in a loser position, as by attempting to cut-off the head of IRAN, the U.S. cut-off the waist of IRAQ, such that although IRAN suffers most without its head, IRAQ is unable to reproduce without its waist. In my opinion, IRAQ will certainly experience shortages of key products if IRAQ complies with all of the U.S. sanctions that could lead to political turmoil at a critical crossroads period in IRAQI politics. Therefore, I was not surprised to see Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi, clearly state that IRAQ has presented the U.S. with a framework, from which the IRAQI delegation will go to the U.S. to negotiate, with a clear vision of what IRAQ really needs, which includes IRANIAN natural gas, electricity and other critical trade related products that fuel the IRAQI economy.

Nonetheless, I was not surprised to see the deadly protests continuing to rage in IRAQ over the lack of basic services and government corruption as IRAQI security forces were bracing for new rounds of violent protests. In my opinion, intermittent electricity availabilities, undrinkable water, unemployment and frustrations with the political system will certainly result in more IRAQI protests. In my opinion, it is easier said than done for IRAQI security forces to protect and facilitate peaceful demonstrations when frustrated IRAQI populace hurl stones and Molotov cocktails at local IRAQI government buildings and IRAQI security forces. Furthermore, tensions were once again high in IRAQ this week, amid speculations among IRAQI officials that the U.S. will begin to draw down the 5,200 U.S. military personnel based in IRAQ. In my opinion, in view of the defeat of ISIS on the ground in late 2017, and subsequent to U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a complete withdrawal from SYRIA, it is only a matter of time before the U.S. will withdraw from IRAQ. However, in my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump will stick to his guns, as he has been extremely vocal that the U.S. has spent over US$ 7 Trillion in the MIDDLE EAST, with nothing to show for it, such that he has long favoured seizing IRAQ’s oil, while at a minimum IRAQ will have to renegotiate business relationships with the U.S. in order to warrant future U.S. involvement in IRAQ.

Thus, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIAN Crown Prince MBS offer of full support for IRAQ’s continued security, to fill the void left behind by a potential U.S. withdrawal from IRAQ, is not surprising. In my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA is courting IRAQ as part of a combined effort with the U.S. to stem the growing regional influence of IRAN, while IRAQ is seeking economic benefits from closer ties with SAUDI ARABIA. Furthermore, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA which is of a majority SUNNI Muslim background is the perfect financial backer for SUNNI Muslim parts of IRAQ, which bore the brunt of the fighting during the war against ISIS, but that now seem to be underfunded by the SHIA-led central government in IRAQ, as the budget appears to be lacking to help the liberated SUNNI Muslim areas. Furthermore, in regards to this week’s turmoil, as IRAQ finds itself caught in the crossfire as U.S. President Donald Trump plans to revert U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East by an eventual complete withdrawal of U.S. troops, it is my opinion that IRAQIS will no longer be able to blame interference by the U.S. for exacerbating IRAQ’s internal problems. However, in my opinion, the impending U.S. withdrawal, will likely trigger ISIS fighters fleeing SYRIA attempting to regroup in areas they once controlled in northern and western IRAQ. In regards to U.S. backed SYRIAN forces fighting ISIS transferring more than 150 IRAQI ISIS fighters back to the IRAQI military, marking the biggest repatriation of ISIS fighters captured from SYRIA to date, the U.S. military appears to be laying the groundwork for an eventual withdrawal. In regards to the U.S. backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) standoff with ISIS over the final pocket of land held by ISIS in eastern SYRIA, BAGHOUZ, close to the IRAQI border, I do not believe the ISIS threat will end with the recapture of BAGHOUZ, but rather that ISIS will regroup. In my opinion, it already appears that an insurgency is underway, as ISIS claimed responsibility for back-to-back suicide attacks that hit a village several miles away from BAGHOUZ, leaving more than a dozen people dead in a rare targeting of civilians by ISIS as a sign of desperation. In my opinion, with some 300 ISIS militants, along with hundreds of civilians consisting primarily of their families, under siege now for more than a week in BAGHOUZ, an imminent loss appears to lie in store for ISIS, after nearly 20,000 people have already evacuated through a humanitarian corridor on foot from the ISIS holdout this month, while the presence of civilians continues to slow ISIS’s impending defeat.

SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

As a friendly reminder, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN ally recently retook a town, DERAA that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war, as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war. Thus, in my opinion, the shift now in focus of the SAA campaign to IDLIB was expected, as it is unacceptable that terrorists, particularly the AL-NUSRA FRONT, are using the de-escalation area of IDLIB to attack the SYRIAN army and to also attack the RUSSIAN military bases in the area by utilizing drones. However, in my opinion, TURKISH backed opposition groups in IDLIB that have attempted to unify into a new coalition, with some 70,000 fighters pledging to fight against SAA forces without the terrorist group, Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the most dominant rebel force in IDLIB in control of about 60% of the province, will not be able to indefinitely withstand the impending SAA and RUSSIAN military onslaught. Furthermore, in my opinion, a major military operation in IDLIB could pose a particularly threatening humanitarian crisis because there is no opposition held territory remaining in SYRIA, where people could be evacuated to, such that as many as 2.5 million SYRIANS could try to flee to the closed TURKISH border, creating a new refugee crisis of catastrophic proportions.

Hence, in my opinion, although RUSSIA’s worries about AL-QAEDA linked terrorist groups based in IDLIB are legitimate, a full-scale military attack is not the way to deal with this situation as it will certainly put the lives of all innocent civilians at risk and create a humanitarian crisis. Thus, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan needs to receive full credit for being able to negotiate a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA to spare IDLIB from disastrous consequences for the time being. In my opinion, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin is by far the best negotiator currently in the region, who always seems to be able to remain cool, calm and collected, as he once again made the right strategic decision to hold back the SAA and IRANIANS from engaging in a full fledge military assault on IDLIB that in my opinion will have disastrous consequences for all parties.

Thus, I was not surprised to see an opposition government in IDLIB backed by HTS, imposing Islamic Sharia law, which calls for severe retribution for lawbreakers, in order to consolidate their power in the region. However, in my opinion, the sheer rigidity and brutality of Islamic Sharia law may actually have the opposite impact, and alienate local citizens, as perpetrators of abductions and armed robberies will be executed, have their hands cut off or be exiled, depending upon the crime. Thus, in my opinion, the threats coming from terrorists based in SYRIA’s IDLIB province to launch a large-scale operation on the northern areas of neighbouring Latakia and Hama provinces should be taken seriously. Thus, in my opinion, this week’s HTS signing of ceasefire deal with what was left of rival NLF alliance sees HTS supremacy and unison of the region under a HTS led administration creating more difficulties for the SAA. However, in my opinion, the U.S. announcement of its intention for a complete withdrawal from SYRIA, appears to have indirectly given the SAA the ability to prepare for a full fledge assault on IDLIB, as the war between the SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad and rebel forces appear to be entering the final phase, as President Bashar al-Assad now appears ready, willing and able to consolidate all of SYRIA under his control, while the rebels vow to fight until death to hold onto their respective territories.

Thus, the Free Syrian Police (FSP), a symbol of SYRIA’s revolution and a recipient of international support, ceasing operations following the HTS takeover of IDLIB, is not surprising. However, in my opinion, the FSP operations should continue, instead of deploying other HTS elements connected to a military faction, as the damage in IDLIB will not likely be exacerbated as the FSP have stopped working on security, corruption and the spread of robberies and crimes. Furthermore, in my opinion, a large number of police officers who are defectors from the FSP will be harmed by becoming unemployed, and thus will further damage the safety network of IDLIB society in general. Thus, in my opinion, the announcement by the RUSSIAN foreign ministry that the situation was rapidly deteriorating such that IDLIB was almost under the full control of the HTS rebel group, previously linked to al-Qaeda, should trigger a coordinated military effort between RUSSIA and TURKEY to stabilise the situation in IDLIB. Thus, this week, I was not surprised to see extremist factions within the HTS alliance appear to be responsible for a double bomb attack that killed at least 15 people, including four children, while wounding at least 50 other civilians, although there was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack. In regards to the rising number of civilian casualties due to intensified attacks by SAA forces and their allies against ISIS militants and other HTS rebels in northern IDLIB and surrounding areas, it is devastating to see large numbers of civilians, including hundreds of thousands of displaced people, in IDLIB and northern ALEPPO living is such intolerable situations. In my opinion, the innocent civilians are stuck between a rock and a hard place, in the sense that, they are trapped between the escalation of hostilities and bombardments on the one hand, while being forced to live under the extremist rule of HTS and other extremist fighters, on the other side, who regularly carry out targeted killings, abductions and arbitrary detentions to instil loyalty by fear in local residents. Hence, in my opinion, everybody understands that Jabhat al-Nusra should by no means be allowed to gain a firmer foothold in IDLIB, where it has in fact already tripled the area under its control, but rather moderate opposition forces need to be separated from terrorist groups. However, it is difficult to separate moderate opposition forces that can subsequently represent IDLIB at future negotiations, although everybody agrees that the only alternative to a full scale operation in IDLIB is separation of the opposition interested in a normal dialogue with the government of SYRIA from the terrorists, thus isolating the terrorists and forcing the continued elimination of terrorist groups.

Meanwhile, in regards to escalation of tensions in recent months between ISRAEL and IRAN, I am not surprised to see ISRAEL continuing to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. In my opinion, ISRAEL will not back down from its position that IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, in recent months, IRANIAN forces have pulled back from the Golan Heights that should be welcomed as a positive development, although ISRAEL clearly stated that such a pull back is insufficient, with no compromises or concessions from ISRAEL’s position of a complete withdrawal being necessary. In my opinion, tensions have obviously risen once again since IRANIAN’s were fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency that has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. The recent sanctions that target IRANIAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN’s auto sector that took effect seem to reflect the U.S. belief that IRAN will eventually surrender via the pressure tactics of sanctions. However, in my opinion IRAN’s pride runs through the veins of a majority of IRANIANS who would prefer to eat sand and drink sewage water before conceding to U.S. pressure tactics via sanctions.

In my opinion, the U.S. withdrawal from the IRAN nuclear deal has already badly shaken IRAN’s economy, crashing its currency, the IRANAN Rial, such that IRAN will have to choose to either come back to the negotiating table with the U.S. or watch its IRANIAN economy suffer from re-imposed U.S. sanctions. Thus, I was not surprised at U.S. President, Donald Trump warning that the U.S. is developing a new strategy for the war in SYRIA that would focus more heavily on pushing IRAN’s military and its proxy forces out of SYRIA. In my opinion, the new U.S. strategy would probably not involve the U.S. military directly targeting and killing IRANIAN soldiers or IRANIAN proxies, given that the U.S. military only has the right of self-defence authorization in SYRIA, and thus should only strike IRANIAN targets if the U.S. feels threatened. In my opinion, the U.S. plan will likely focus on political and diplomatic efforts to force IRAN out of SYRIA by squeezing SYRIA financially. That is, the U.S. will likely withhold reconstruction aid from areas where IRANIAN and RUSSIAN forces are present and also impose sanctions on RUSSIAN and IRANIAN companies working on reconstruction in SYRIA. Ironically, IRAN seems to be heading in the direction of weathering the storm created by the crippling U.S. sanctions on IRAN’s oil industry that came back into full force during November’ 2018. Therefore, IRAN’s strategy seems to be heading in the direction of maintaining a status-quo arrangement until the fate of U.S. President Donald Trump becomes clearer in terms of whether he will ultimately be elected to serve a second term in 2020.

However, U.S. President, Donald Trump, then seemed to realize that he needed an ally in the Middle East and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY. Nonetheless, I am not surprised that U.S. President, Donald Trump, seems to have sided with the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by initially speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty. Furthermore, I was not surprised that U.S. President, Donald Trump did not hide from the U.S. realities that he does not want the U.S. lucrative business relationships with SAUDI ARABIA to change. Hence, in my opinion, the Jamal Khashoggi scandal will shortly come to an end, with the Crown Prince Mohammed Ben Salman (MBS) and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family walking away absolved, as TURKEY has not produced adequate substantive evidence to pin them with the crime, other than an abundance of circumstantial evidence that they ordered the hit as defector rulers of SAUDI ARABIA. Hence, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA has appropriately indicted 11 suspects in the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, with five facing the death penalty, such that if SAUDI ARABIA proceeds with the executions, neither TURKEY nor any other country will ever hear the testimonies of the accused, such that the accused versions of the events will in essence be buried in their graves. However, in my opinion, it is to the benefit of SAUDI ARABIA for the truth about Jamal Khashoggi to disappear with the 5 planned executions, such that at this stage it appears that SAUDI ARABIA will execute a 5 to 1 exchange.

Thus, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see CIA Director Gina Haspel garnering extensive support for her conclusion, from both top Republican and top Democratic leaders. However, it was surprising to see the entire Senate Committee vote unanimously to overrule U.S. President Donald Trump, by officially blaming Crown Prince MBS for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. Nonetheless, in my opinion U.S. President Donald Trump has made the right decision to stick with Crown Price MBS on the basis that there is no substantive evidence to link him to the crime. In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump hit the nail on the head when he clearly stated that Crown Prince MBS has vehemently denied involvement in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi such that the U.S. cannot condemn the leader of a good ally on the basis of circumstantial evidence. In my opinion, given that Crown Prince MBS vehemently denies involvement in the murder, the rule of international law must apply of innocent until proven guilt by a court of law based on substantive evidence. Thus, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA appropriately denounced the U.S. Senate resolutions blaming Crown Prince MBS for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, as they were based on unsubstantiated claims. In my opinion, the Senate Committee vote was a rare rebuke to U.S. President Donald Trump, but largely symbolic in nature, as to become law, the Bill would need to pass the House of Representatives, whose Republican leaders have blocked any legislation intended to rebuke SAUDI ARABIA.

Nonetheless, in my opinion, preliminary conclusions by the U.N. special investigator on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions heading an independent international inquiry into the murder of Jamal Khashoggi are not surprising. That is, in my opinion, the official statement by the U.N. that the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, was a brutal and premeditated killing, which was planned by SAUDI ARABIAN officials, was expected. However, a further allegation from the U.N. inquiry that SAUDI ARABIA seriously undermined TURKEY’s efforts to investigate the murder was not expected although this clearly demonstrates that the Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family control the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in TURKEY. Thus, SAUDI ARABIA appears to have been able to exercise control over the crime scene that obviously seriously undermined TURKEY’s efforts to investigate Jamal Khashoggi’s murder at the consulate in TURKEY. In my opinion, TURKEY was not allowed into the SAUDI ARABIAN consul where Jamal Khashoggi was killed for 13 days, in order to give SAUDI ARABIA enough time to insure that the trial of the 11 suspects in the case, would not produce any direct links to formal or informal authorization from the Crown Prince MBS or the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family. Therefore, I believe that Agnes Callamard’s assessment that efforts to undermine the investigation in TURKEY raises major concerns about transparency and fairness is valid justifying her request for an official visit to SAUDI ARABIA so that the SAUDI ARABIAN authorities can directly provide her with relevant evidence.

However, in my opinion, slain journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s fiancée, Hatice Cengiz, is now doing a fantastic job urging the European Union (E.U.) to transcend economic interests and exert pressure on Saudi Arabia to insure justice prevails in this sensational killing, that is still headlining news internationally. In my opinion, Hatice Cengiz hit the nail on the head when she stressed that the system turned against Jamal Khashoggi such that if a prominent personality such as Jamal Khashoggi could be targeted the way he was, then anybody could fall victim of this system. That is, these problems that exist within the MIDDLE EAST are not exclusive to the region, but rather transcend borders, such that it is dangerous to turn a blind eye, as the ramifications of the MIDDLE EAST political assassination driven problems transcend borders. In my opinion, with economic wealth being more and more concentrated amongst the elites worldwide, there is an increasing risk of political assassinations of dissidents, on the simple basis of the elite in substance being untouchable. Therefore, the facts revealed so far regarding the Jamal Khashoggi murder do not satisfy the E.U. and the human rights commission, such that the E.U. has been more vocal than the U.S. in its criticizing SAUDI ARABIA, albeit this criticism needs to be redirected into obtaining future concessions from SAUDI ARABIA, as the E.U. like the U.N. are attempting to beat a dead horse to death, although there is nothing more anybody can do at this stage to bring back Jamal Khashoggi. In my opinion, human rights activists such as his fiancée, Hatice Cengiz should focus their efforts on implementing Jamal Khashoggi’s vision as part of his last article before he was killed, as his work to promote reconciliation between the SAUDI ARABIAN and IRANIAN people seems to be the root cause behind him getting killed. In my opinion, poetic justice would seem to best be served if Jamal Khashoggi’s last words calling on leaders in SAUDI ARABIA and IRAN to stop meddling in the internal affairs of other countries were fulfilled. In my opinion, Jamal Khashoggi hit the nail of the head when he focused on the death and devastation caused by both countries’ involvement in wars in SYRIA and YEMEN, while urging both countries to start respecting human rights. Lastly, in my opinion, human rights activists should build on Jamal Khashoggi’s last thoughts whereby governments seem to be stuck digging in their heels in a dangerous staring contest that could soon erupt into something worse. Hence, at this stage it would seem more constructive to focus on changing the authoritarian mind sets in the MIDDLE EAST as opposed to overanalyzing the evidence behind the Jamal Khashoggi killing to the point of paralysis, as at the end of the day the elite class rules, such that Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family are under armour and bullet proof.

In regards to Germany that has banned arms exports to SAUDI ARABIA after the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, when German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that her coalition government would halt all arms equipment exports to its second-biggest customer, SAUDI ARABIA, GERMANY seemed to be the only country in the E.U. who were outraged over the SAUDI ARABIAN led intervention in YEMEN, followed by the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. However, in my opinion, Germany obviously set an international example with its ban, although the German decision was mostly symbolic, given that GERMANY’s exports to SAUDI ARABIA have been superseded by arms sales from the U.S., Britain and France in recent years. Therefore, it seems like the world has become like a giant game of charades whereby one chooses to set examples in those cases where one has little skin in the game, while shutting ones mouth when big investments are at stake, without any embarrassment or shame. In my opinion, when GERMANY banned sales to SAUDI ARABIA, it not only barred fully assembled products such as ships, but also high-tech components used by companies across the E.U. such that GERMANY may have been able to reduce its overall arms exports to SAUDI ARABIA, but GERMANY remains an E.U. center for high-tech components, such that GERMANY will most probably be forced to continue to supply the E.U. companies regardless of the direct arms export ban to SAUDI ARABIA. In my opinion, the supply of arms in the MIDDLE EAST should be handled in a similar fashion to the supply of narcotics, in the sense that the focus should be placed on reducing demand, by reducing tensions in the region along with constructive negotiating efforts to put an end to the raging civil wars, such that the GERMAN arms export ban is largely symbolic in nature, as whatever GERMANY refuses to supply, an alternative supply chain source will be found that complies. Thus, in my opinion, focusing on punishing SAUDI ARABIA for its sins of the past will have very little impact, while obtaining prospective concessions from SAUDI ARABIA consisting of: (1) Negotiate directly with representatives of the HOUTHI rebels to end the war in YEMEN; (2) End a blockade imposed by SAUDI ARABIA and three other ARAB states on QATAR, in June of last year seeking a political solution, in one of the worst diplomatic rifts with QATAR throughout its entire history; and (3) Release blogger Raif Badawi, women’s rights activists and other political prisoners held in SAUDI ARABIA.

Thus, in my opinion, the U.N. should leverage the current situation regarding the murder of Jamal Khashoggi to obtain concessions such as allowing a BRITISH panel of MP’s to go to SAIDI ARABIA to investigate allegations that women’s rights activists are being tortured and sexually harassed in detention. In my opinion, the U.K. has so far been stonewalled by SAUDI ARABIA in its efforts to access the eight detained women activists, arrested between May and July, and then branded as traitors in the SAUDI ARABIAN press. In my opinion, Human Rights Watch claims there have been credible reports from members of the women’s families that they have also been denied medical access, as well as maltreated. Therefore, in my opinion, this is an opportune time for the international community to pressure SAUDI ARABIA, as these women are celebrities of the international women’s movement, such that there is an enormous global focus on what is happening to them in the media. Thus, in my opinion, this is a clear opportunity for SAUDI ARABIA to send a strong signal to the world that things have changed in SAUDI ARABIA by agreeing to work with the BRITISH panel of MP’s to liberate the eight detained women activists.

In my opinion, the current situation in the Middle East depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War that would likely be triggered by a direct ISRAEL and IRAN conflict, such that all leaders across the globe must avoid the temptation to look away but rather should increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, minimize civilian casualties, prevent the further use of chemical weapons and alleviate the humanitarian crisis from a civil war spiralling out of control with no end in sight, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the Middle East. That being said, the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while subsequently being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as slain journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s fiancée, Hatice Cengiz, is now doing a fantastic job urging the European Union (E.U.) to transcend economic interests and exert pressure on Saudi Arabia to insure justice prevails in this sensational killing, that is still headlining news internationally, given that anybody could fall victim of this system, with economic wealth being more and more concentrated amongst the elites worldwide, there is an increasing risk of political assassinations of dissidents, on the simple basis of the elite in substance being untouchable, albeit criticism needs to be redirected into obtaining future concessions from SAUDI ARABIA, as the E.U. like the U.N. are attempting to beat a dead horse to death, although there is nothing more anybody can do at this stage to bring back Jamal Khashoggi, such that human rights activists should focus their efforts on implementing Jamal Khashoggi’s vision as part of his last article before he was killed, as his work to promote reconciliation between the SAUDI ARABIAN and IRANIAN people seems to be the root cause behind him getting killed, such that poetic justice would seem to best be served if Jamal Khashoggi’s last words calling on leaders in SAUDI ARABIA and IRAN to stop meddling in the internal affairs of other countries, by focusing on the death and devastation caused by both countries’ involvement in wars in SYRIA and YEMEN, while urging both countries to start respecting human rights, such that at this stage it would seem more constructive to focus on changing the authoritarian mind sets in the MIDDLE EAST, as opposed to overanalyzing the evidence behind the Jamal Khashoggi killing to the point of paralysis, as at the end of the day the elite class rules, such that Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family are under armour and bullet proof, while GERMANY banning arms sales to SAUDI ARABIA seems futile, as GERMANY remains an E.U. center for high-tech components, such that GERMANY will most probably be forced to continue to supply the E.U. companies regardless of the direct arms export ban to SAUDI ARABIA, as the supply of arms in the MIDDLE EAST should be handled in a similar fashion to the supply of narcotics, in the sense that the focus should be placed on reducing demand, by reducing tensions in the region along with constructive negotiating efforts to put an end to the raging civil wars, such that the GERMAN arms export ban is largely symbolic in nature, as whatever GERMANY refuses to supply, an alternative supply chain source will be found that complies, thus focusing on punishing SAUDI ARABIA for its sins of the past will have very little impact, hence the U.N. should now leverage the current situation to pressure SAUDI ARABIA, to release eight women activists who are celebrities of the international women’s movement, as a clear opportunity for SAUDI ARABIA to send a strong signal to the world that things have changed in SAUDI ARABIA.

In my opinion, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, although ISIS was literally disappearing from the face of the map in SYRIA, new showdowns between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) only serves to fuel the re-emergence of ISIS as a dangerous player in SYRIA. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS. Thus, in my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and utter madness.

Summary

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 339” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as slain journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s fiancée, Hatice Cengiz, is now doing a fantastic job urging the E.U. to transcend economic interests and exert pressure on SAUDI ARABIA to insure justice prevails in this sensational killing, that is still headlining news internationally, given that anybody could fall victim of this system, with economic wealth being more and more concentrated amongst the elites worldwide, there is an increasing risk of political assassinations of dissidents, on the simple basis of the elite in substance being untouchable, albeit criticism needs to be redirected into obtaining future concessions from SAUDI ARABIA, as the E.U. like the U.N. are attempting to beat a dead horse to death, such that human rights activists should focus their efforts on implementing Jamal Khashoggi’s vision, as his work to promote reconciliation between the SAUDI ARABIAN and IRANIAN people seems to be the root cause behind him getting killed, such that poetic justice would seem to best be served if Jamal Khashoggi’s last words calling on leaders in SAUDI ARABIA and IRAN to stop meddling in the internal affairs of other countries such as SYRIA and YEMEN, causing death and devastation, as opposed to overanalyzing the evidence behind the Jamal Khashoggi killing to the point of paralysis, as at the end of the day the elite class rules, such that Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family are under armour and bullet proof, while GERMANY banning arms sales to SAUDI ARABIA seems futile, as GERMANY remains an E.U. center for high-tech components, such that the supply of arms in the MIDDLE EAST should be handled in a similar fashion to the supply of narcotics, in the sense that the focus should be placed on reducing demand, by reducing tensions in the region along with constructive negotiating efforts to put an end to the raging civil wars, hence the U.N. should now leverage the current situation to pressure SAUDI ARABIA, to release eight women activists who are celebrities of the international women’s movement, as a clear opportunity for SAUDI ARABIA to send a strong signal to the world that things have changed in SAUDI ARABIA.

Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:

February 24, 2019