World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 335

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 335” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as the U.N. special investigator on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions, Agnes Callamard, announced that she will travel to TURKEY to head an independent international inquiry into the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, which is not surprising as this killing has triggered international outrage, albeit the evaluation of the circumstances of the crime, and the nature and extent of states’ and individuals’ responsibilities for the killing, will likely reveal very little new information, other than evidence of a circumstantial nature that will link Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family to the crime, forcing the U.N. to corroborate the famous O.J. Simpson closing arguments at the trial, whereby the lawyer Johnny Cochran uttered the now famous words, if the glove does not fit, you must acquit, in a dramatic scene whereby O.J. Simpson appeared to have difficulty getting the glove on, that was stained with blood of both victims and O.J. Simpson, that had been found at the crime scene, thus it is more logical for the international community to now focus its attention on leveraging the Jamal Khashoggi killing to obtain concessions, such as allowing a BRITISH panel of MP’s to go to SAUDI ARABIA to investigate allegations that women’s rights activists are being tortured and sexually harassed in detention, as this is an opportune time to pressure SAUDI ARABIA, given that these women are celebrities of the international women’s movement, such that there is an enormous global focus on what is happening to them in the media, hence, in my opinion, this is a clear opportunity for SAUDI ARABIA to send a strong signal to the world that things have changed by agreeing to work with the BRITISH panel of MP’s to liberate the eight detained women activists.

TURKEY News

During the week ending on Sunday, January 27, 2019, the focus in TURKEY seemed to shift to the TURKISH struggling economy, largely attributable to a lack of confidence by foreign investors, due largely to TURKEY’s repressive crackdown measures on all opposition movements. It is important to note that, several months ago, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan allowed TURKEY’s two-year state of emergency to come to an end but as trials of dissidents and journalists continue, human rights campaigners continue to pressure TURKEY to do more to reverse a suffocating crackdown on free speech. Critics claim that the state of emergency, in place since the failed “Coup D’État” in July of 2016 that killed 250 people and wounded 1,400, has been used to detain opponents of the governing AKP for lengthy periods of time without trial to intimidate dissidents and to prosecute media outlets. That is, more than 120,000 people in the police, military, academia, media and civil service have been detained or dismissed from their jobs, over their alleged links to Fethullah Gulen, who is the exiled TURKISH preacher based now in the U.S., who TURKEY blames as the brains behind the operations for the failed “Coup D’État”.

However, the behaviours of TURKEY’s governing AKP seem to be taking their toll on the TURKISH economy as turbulent politics have resulted in economic turmoil whereby the sliding TURKISH Lira set-off alarm bells across TURKEY as businesses struggle to cope with the financial impacts of a declining TURKISH Lira. Unfortunately, TURKEY’s fragile economy recently received another economic blow when TURKEY’s growth forecasts for this year and next year were dramatically reduced, triggering further drops in the value of the TURKISH Lira. It is important to note that TURKISH Finance Minister Berat Albayrak stated that growth would be 3.8% this year and 2.3% in 2019, both revised downwards from the initial forecasts of 5.5%. Ironically, TURKEY’s finance minister insisted that TURKEYS’s economy did not face any significant risks, despite the TURKISH Lira plunging to its lowest point after new economic data was released that points to the risk of a sharp economic slowdown in TURKEY. However, the drop in the TURKISH Lira that had lost about 40% of its value against the U.S. dollar this year, hitting severe lows in October’ 2018, after TURKEY’s economic confidence index also hit extreme lows, has recovered slightly since. It is important to note that U.S. rating agency Moody’s downgraded 20 TURKISH financial institutions due to increased risks of a sudden shift in investor sentiment that could leave TURKISH banks struggling to attract foreign financing that keeps TURKISH banking sector liquid.

Thus, TURKISH banks that borrowed heavily abroad now face the near impossible task of refinancing short-term debt in expensive U.S. Dollars and E.U. Euros. It is important to note that around $180 billion in TURKISH foreign debt matures from now until the end of July of 2019, of which approximately $145 billion is owed by the private sector, particularly TURKISH banks, which borrowed heavily abroad in foreign denominated currencies. Therefore, TURKEY will be hit with a currency mismatch as TURKEY mostly earns returns on investments in TURKISH Lira, while it has to payback its foreign currency denominated debt by converting a plummeting TURKISH Lira, resulting in significantly higher debt payments. However, this week TURKISH Finance Minister, Berat Albayrak, continued to focus on the TURKISH economy, speaking during the Emerging Markets Outlook session at the 49’th World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland. In particular, Berat Albayrak emphasized that the TURKISH economy is on a positive track, and that TURKEY has recovered with effective countermeasures against volatility, as the TURKISH economy recovered from its most difficult periods during the summer of 2018. Furthermore, Berat Albayrak underscored that the TURKISH economy maintained a growth trend in 2018 despite economic problems, as TURKEY’s economy grew 7.2% in the first quarter, 5.3% in the second quarter and 1.6% in the third and fourth quarter.

Thus, TURKISH Finance Minister Berat Albayrak who declared war on soaring inflation and called on TURKEY’s businesses to cut prices by 10% to counter runaway inflation, that has driven up the price of everything from food to fuel, and sent inflation to 25% during October’ 2018, its highest in 15 years continued with the firm stance of implementing this policy. Furthermore, TURKEY has already resorted to the seizure of numerous companies that have been accused of conspiring against the TURKISH government with speculation, opportunism and stockpiling. Furthermore, TURKISH police have also raided businesses, based on accusations of speculation, and shops and supermarkets, based on allegations of price gouging. Thus, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is calling on consumers to report shops and businesses for excessive price hikes in order for the police to investigate and resolve accordingly. However, the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK), the TURKISH watchdog, stated that the TURKISH banking sector’s sound and healthy structure continues at full strength. Therefore, the TURKISH banking sector’s current capital structure is fully capable of withstanding asset quality-driven risks.

However, this week, the TURKISH Lira continued to drop, over 2% against the US$, as Turkish President Recep Tayyip warned that TURKEY has military forces stationed along the SYRIAN border, ready to launch an offensive into northern Syria, as a necessary lesson to the KURDISH fighters. Therefore, tensions between TURKEY and the U.S. over military involvement in SYRIA took a negative turn, as the KURDISH forces have been the U.S. allies throughout the entire war against ISIS, prompting U.S. President Donald Trump to threaten TURKEY with economic devastation if TURKEY attacks the KURDS. However, the two leaders reached an understanding of historic importance, as they agreed in principal to set-up a twenty-mile safe zone in northern SYRIA, as a way of containing the backlash after U.S. President Donald Trump’s abrupt announcement that U.S. troops would withdraw from SYRIA. Furthermore, this week, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made it clear that TURKEY is ready to take over security in MANBIJ, SYRIA, where four U.S. citizens died in an ISIS claimed bombing. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan advised U.S. President Donald Trump that the suicide bombing in MANBIJ, controlled by U.S. backed KURDISH YPG forces, was a provocative act aimed at affecting his decision last month to withdraw U.S. troops from SYRIA. However, U.S. President Donald Trump seems to be committed to withdraw all 2,000 U.S. troops from SYRIA, declaring the ISIS militant group defeated, although many experts have not shared this view. Nonetheless, it is important to note that the TURKISH President, who has garnered popular support, during his 16 years in power, on the waves of rising economic prosperity, will now be preparing to fight local TURKISH elections in March of 2018 with an ailing economy. As a friendly reminder, the last time TURKEY went to elections during an economic recession was in 2009, when President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s governing AKP Party suffered its worst ever results. Thus, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is already laying the groundwork to blame the ailing TURKISH economy on outside foreign powers, such as George Soros, who is the famous Hungarian Jew that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan previously blamed for apparently conspiring against the TURKISH government to divide and shatter the TURKISH nation.

However, TURKEY’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued to warn the SYRIAN regime, RUSSIA and IRAN that an all-out military offensive on IDLIB could lead to a disastrous outcome for TURKEY by triggering a new wave of refugees heading towards the TURKISH borders. Thus, the world has been bracing for weeks for the Bashar al-Assad Syrian Arab Army (SAA) to attack IDLIB, where around 2.5 million civilians are living in opposition-held territory with no clear escape routes if fighting escalates. Hence, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reached a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA, in recent months, to prevent an all-out attack on IDLIB, as TURKEY is worried that an attack on IDLIB will trigger a mass exodus of refugees fleeing towards the TURKISH border. It is important to note that the weapons, which have entered SYRIA in large quantities, in recent months, including ammunition and GRAD rockets, clearly indicated that TURKEY would be providing complete TURKISH military support, for a long drawn-out battle over IDLIB, if necessary, that functioned as an effective deterrent from a full scale attack by the SAA and its RUSSIAN and IRANIAN backed allies. However, in recent months, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which includes former AL-QAEDA terrorist fighters among its ranks, seems to be attempting to consolidate power in northern SYRIA with waves of arrests of civilians during the TURKEY and RUSSIAN brokered ceasefire.

It is important to note that this week, HTS signed a ceasefire deal with what was left of the rival NLF alliance that sees HTS supremacy and unison of the region under a HTS led administration. However, the SAA still appears to be preparing for a full fledge assault on IDLIB, as the war between the SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad and rebel forces appear to be entering the final phase, as the U.S. announces its intention for a complete withdrawal from SYRIA. Thus, the Free Syrian Police (FSP), a symbol of SYRIA’s revolution and a recipient of international support, ceased operations following the HTS takeover of IDLIB. However, civilians, members of civil society and activists, who saw the unarmed and independent FSP as a military force for good, see the decision by the FSP to disband as a shocking surprise. Thus, this week, the RUSSIAN foreign ministry announced that the situation was rapidly deteriorating such that IDLIB was almost under the full control of the HTS rebel group, previously linked to al-Qaeda that should trigger a coordinated military effort between RUSSIA and TURKEY to stabilise the situation in IDLIB.

However, in an unusual chain of events that triggered a change of fate, international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY continues, whereby the SAUDI ARABIAN officials had promised consequences for anyone, even a member of the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family, found responsible for the assassination. Thus, TURKEY has led a relentless campaign to hold SAUDI ARABIA accountable, as TURKISH authorities have allowed media leaks to the international press. Furthermore, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan formally denounced SAUDI ARABIA for initially trying to deny involvement in the killing, as after weeks of lying, SAUDI ARABIA finally admitted that Jamal Khashoggi was dead, such that as per TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, covering up this kind of savagery will hurt the conscience of all humanity. Thus, this week, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan discussed steps needed to stabilise the situation in IDLIB where they agreed on the need for coordinated efforts to battle against the terrorist organisations in the region. The RUSSIAN foreign ministry highlighted this week that the situation was rapidly deteriorating such that IDLIB was almost under the full control of the HTS rebel group, previously linked to al-Qaeda.

Nonetheless, in an unusual twist of fate, CIA Director Gina Haspel obviously presented a solid case behind her conclusion that there is a high level of confidence that Crown Prince MBS was complicit in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. Thus, CIA Director Gina Haspel garnered extensive support for her conclusion from both top Republican and top Democratic leaders to the point that the entire Senate Committee voted unanimously to overrule U.S. President Donald Trump by officially blaming Crown Prince MBS for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. Thus, the official response from the SAUDI ARABIAN Foreign Ministry was that Saudi Arabia categorically rejects any interference in its internal affairs, any and all accusations, in any manner, that disrespect its leadership, and any attempts to undermine its sovereignty or diminish its stature. Thus, in a decisive move by Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family, they have ceased offering new versions of their own account of what transpired, with the final official SAUDI ARABIAN version remaining, that the SAUDI ARABIAN assassins killed Jamal Khashoggi with an injection of sedatives, and then immediately set to work dismembering him and hiding his remains. Hence, SAUDI ARABIA put the Jamal Khashoggi murder suspects on trial, whereby the prosecutor, SAUDI ARABIA’s attorney general, demanded the death penalty for 5 of the 11 suspects.

Nonetheless, this week, TURKISH Foreign Minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, stated that it is time for an international investigation to be launched into the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, adding that a United Nations (U.N.) special investigator will visit TURKEY soon. The key point to note is that TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, ordered preparations to be made to carry the Jamal Khashoggi case to an international level, although SAUDI ARABIA insists that justice will prevail in the Jamal Khashoggi trial in SAUDI ARABIA. However, TURKEY obviously wanted SAUDI ARABIA to extradite to TURKEY all those accused of carrying out the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, to be tried in TURKISH courts, that SAUDI ARABIA categorically refused. Thus, the U.N. special investigator on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions has advised that she will travel to TURKEY next week to head an independent international inquiry into the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. That is, Agnes Callamard, the special investigator on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions, publicly stated that she would evaluate the circumstances of the crime and the nature and extent of states’ and individuals’ responsibilities for the killing. Furthermore, Agnes Callamard stated that she would report on the findings from her five-day visit to the U.N. human rights council in June. Furthermore, Agnes Callamard confirmed that the inquiry was being conducted at her formal request, whereby three experts would accompany her, with forensic expertise among their skill sets. It is important to note that Agnes Callamard, a French academic who is director of the Columbia Global Freedom of Expression Department at Columbia University in New York, reports to the U.N. Human Rights Council in Geneva, Switzerland and has a global mandate to investigate executions. Ironically, the development came as western businesses moved to normalise relations with SAUDI ARABIA at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland where SAUDI ARABIA sent a large-scale ministerial delegation that formally expressed its sorrow at the Jamal Khashoggi killing.

IRAQ News

As a friendly reminder, there were two obvious potential outcomes from IRAQI political party negotiations with substantial regional and international consequences. That is, the first potential outcome was a coalition headed by Moqtada al-Sadr that would probably mean a diminishing U.S. presence in IRAQ combined with an IRAQI government that is independent of IRAN’s influence, while reintegrating an independent and sovereign IRAQ into the Arab world. Conversely, the second potential outcome was a coalition headed by the pro-IRANIAN Fatah Alliance representing the SHIITE militias, along with parties loyal to former Prime Ministers Haider al-Abadi and Nouri al-Maliki, as well as smaller groups such as the Kurdistan Coalition, that would result in an overtly pro-IRANIAN government. Thus, in spite of dramatic differences, the three parties that gained the most votes in IRAQ’s May 12, 2018 parliamentary elections agreed to work together to form a new IRAQI government. Thus, after the dust settled, Barham Salih was voted by parliament into the position of President with his first act naming Adil Abdul-Mahdi to be prime minister, who formed the new government during November’ 2018. Ironically, IRAQ’s prime minister-designate Adel Abdul Mahdi presented his new cabinet to the IRAQI parliament for approval, although he has no parliamentary block of his own to stand on, and is thus dependent on the blocks of cleric MUQTADA AL-SADR and pro-IRANIAN militia leader HADI AL-AMIRI for his position.

Furthermore, uncertainty appeared to be looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, while the traditional political parties remain strong, such that the new president and prime minister will have a difficult time translating recent political developments into concrete changes. However, it is important to note that for the first time ever, the IRAQI parliament voted freely for IRAQ’s next president, with Barham Salih winning by a landslide vote of 219 to 22 over his competitor, while in the past, the parliamentary vote served mainly as a rubber-stamp of election results. Furthermore, immediately after Barham Salih was sworn in as President, he designated Adil Abdal-Mehdi to become prime minister, who is the first prime minister not to come from the Islamic Dawa Party, which has dominated post-invasion IRAQI politics. Nonetheless, further complicating the situation in IRAQ is the U.S. re-imposing sanctions against IRAN as IRAQ finds itself caught in the crossfire between its key allies of IRAN and the U.S. such that IRAQ’s economy could suffer the worst economic collateral damage from the U.S. sanctions on IRAN. Ironically, as soon as the most recent round of U.S. sanctions hit IRAN, the IRAQI Prime Minister stated that IRAQ would reluctantly comply but one week later, reality hit IRAQ whereby many IRAQIS forced the IRAQI government to maintain trade relations with IRAN. Thus, IRAQI’s new Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi had no choice but to formally request that the U.S. provide certain exemptions to IRAQ on specific critical IRANIAN goods with an IRAQI delegation set to travel to Washington as soon as the U.S. counterparts are ready to meet.

Nonetheless, deadly protests continued to rage in IRAQ over the lack of basic services and government corruption as IRAQI security forces were bracing with a rise in violence that has resulted in more solidarity protests throughout IRAQ as activists look to create momentum in their protests against intermittent electricity availabilities, undrinkable water, unemployment and frustrations with the political system. Furthermore, tensions were once again high in IRAQ this week, as speculations among IRAQI officials that the U.S. will begin to draw down the 5,200 U.S. military personnel based in IRAQ, in view of the defeat of ISIS on the ground in late 2017, and subsequent to U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a complete withdrawal from SYRIA. Thus, this week, SAUDI ARABIAN Crown Prince MBS offered his full support for IRAQ’s continued security in a telephone call with Prime Minister Adel Abdel-Mahdi to fill the void left behind by a potential U.S. withdrawal from IRAQ. Hence, Crown Prince MBS is seeking to reassure U.S. partners in the region after U.S. President Donald Trump’s abrupt decision last month to withdraw troops from SYRIA. It is important to note that SAUDI ARABIA and IRAQ have maintained distant relationships since the IRAQI invasion of KUWAIT in 1990, such that Crown Prince MBS is now attempting to improve relations, which began with the reopening of the SAUDI ARABIAN Embassy in IRAQ in 2016, while now obviously being instructed by the U.S. to mend relations with IRAQ in order to counter IRANIAN influence. Contemporaneously, IRAQI Prime Minister Adel Abdel-Mahdi expressed full support of Saudi Arabia’s initiatives to support IRAQ’s permanent security and prosperity. Crown Prince MBS’s timing this week was contemporaneous with IRAQ approving its US$ 112 billion budget for 2019 that authorises a reconstruction fund for provinces liberated from ISIS in the 2014 to 2017 war, with a sum of US$ 28 billion for investment projects, as the 2019 budget still projects a US$ 23 billion deficit in 2019.

SYRIA News

As a friendly reminder, in recent months, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN allies retook a town, DERAA, that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war, that engulfed SYRIA for over seven years now, as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag, in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war. It is important to note that the SAA along with their RUSSIAN allies now continue to focus their attention on IDLIB where they have vowed to wipe out all terrorists. It is important to note that the SAA and RUSSIA have signalled that an all-out offensive to retake the last rebel-held province in SYRIA consisting of IDLIB is only a matter of time. Therefore, the SAA and RUSSIA have triggered rising fears over a major humanitarian crisis as it has become evident that IDLIB will eventually be subjected to an intense bombing campaign.

Therefore, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave the HTS rebels inside the IDLIB buffer zone another warning to leave the designated RUSSIA and TURKEY designated demilitarized zone. Furthermore, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made it clear that if HTS rebels refuse to leave the designated demilitarized zone, TURKEY will allow the SAA and RUSSIAN Air Force to resume their operations against them in northwestern SYRIA. However, SYRIAN Foreign Minister Walid Al-Mu’allem stated that retaking IDLIB province, and liberating IDLIB from terrorism, is a top priority for the SYRIAN government, such that the primary objective is to contain the terrorists in IDLIB through dialogue, as the SAA prefers to take this route in order to avoid bloodshed. Thus, an opposition government in IDLIB backed by HTS, imposed Islamic Sharia law, which calls for severe retribution for lawbreakers, in order to consolidate their power in the region. Furthermore, terrorists based in SYRIA’s IDLIB province have threatened to launch a large-scale operation on the northern areas of neighbouring Latakia and Hama provinces, while organizing large-scale attacks, although the SAA is taking appropriate measures and is ready to repel possible attacks. It is important to note that this week, that HTS signed a ceasefire deal with what was left of the rival NLF alliance, that sees HTS supremacy and unison of the region under a HTS led administration. However, the SAA still appears to be preparing for a full fledge assault on IDLIB, as the war between the SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad and rebel forces appear to be entering the final phase, as the U.S. announces its intention for a complete withdrawal from SYRIA. Thus, the Free Syrian Police (FSP), a symbol of SYRIA’s revolution and a recipient of international support, ceased operations following the HTS takeover of IDLIB. However, civilians, members of civil society and activists, who saw the unarmed and independent FSP as a military force for good, see the decision by the FSP to disband as a shocking surprise. Thus, this week, the RUSSIAN foreign ministry announced that the situation was rapidly deteriorating such that IDLIB was almost under the full control of the HTS rebel group, previously linked to al-Qaeda that should trigger a coordinated military effort between RUSSIA and TURKEY to stabilise the situation in IDLIB.

Meanwhile, the tensions between IRAN and ISRAEL seem to have continued to escalate again after ISRAELI airstrikes targeted IRANIAN military infrastructure inside SYRIA, in recent months. Obviously, IRAN condemned the wave of ISRAELI air strikes in SYRIA and clearly stated that these attacks by ISRAEL represent a blatant violation of SYRIA’s sovereignty such that IRAN has backed SYRIA’s right to defend itself against ISRAEL. It is important to note that the strikes were the heaviest strikes carried out by ISRAEL on SYRIA in decades that came right after twenty rockets were fired at ISRAELI military positions in the occupied Golan Heights of SYRIA. It is no secret that the strikes hurt IRAN that has deployed hundreds of troops inside SYRIA as military advisers to the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) while thousands of IRANIAN militia armed, trained and financed by IRAN, have also been battling SYRIAN rebel forces alongside the SAA. ISRAEL stated that ISRAELI fighter jets struck almost IRAN’s entire military infrastructure inside Syria consisting of some 70 targets in ISRAELS biggest assault since SYRIA’s civil war commenced in 2011.

Subsequently, the tone escalated between ISRAEL and IRAN, as ISRAEL continues to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to be adamant that the IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, in recent months, IRANIAN forces did pull back from the Golan Heights that seems to be a step in the right direction. However, tensions seemed to have risen with IRANIAN’s fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency that has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. The new sanctions target IRANIAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN’s auto sector although the toughest sanctions targeting oil exports have only taken effect recently. However, IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani clearly stated that IRAN would not let the enemy bring IRAN to its knees such that if the enemy thinks they will defeat IRAN, they will take their hope to the grave with them.

Hence, U.S. President, Donald Trump, warned that the U.S. is developing a new strategy for the war in SYRIA that would focus more heavily on pushing IRAN’s military and its proxy forces out of SYRIA. However, U.S. President, Donald Trump, then seemed to realize that he needed an ally in the Middle East and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY. Nonetheless, U.S. President, Donald Trump, seemed to have initially sided with the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty. Obviously, with the IRANIAN oil embargo plans that took effect on November 5, 2018, when sanctions kicked-in, success of the embargo depends on SAUDI ARABIA pumping extra oil to compensate for the anticipated shortfall.

Nonetheless, in an unusual twist of fate, CIA Director Gina Haspel obviously presented a solid case behind her conclusion that there is a high level of confidence that Crown Prince MBS was complicit in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. Thus, CIA Director Gina Haspel has garnered extensive support for her conclusion from both top Republican and top Democratic leaders to the point that the entire Senate Committee voted unanimously to overrule U.S. President Donald Trump by officially blaming Crown Prince MBS for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. Thus, the official response from the SAUDI ARABIAN Foreign Ministry was that Saudi Arabia categorically rejects any interference in its internal affairs, any and all accusations, in any manner, that disrespect its leadership, and any attempts to undermine its sovereignty or diminish its stature. Thus, in a decisive move by Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family, they have ceased offering new versions of their own account of what transpired, with the final official SAUDI ARABIAN version remaining, that the SAUDI ARABIAN assassins killed Jamal Khashoggi with an injection of sedatives, and then immediately set to work dismembering him and hiding his remains. Hence, SAUDI ARABIA put the Jamal Khashoggi murder suspects on trial, whereby the prosecutor, SAUDI ARABIA’s attorney general, demanded the death penalty for 5 of the 11 suspects.

Nonetheless, this week, TURKISH Foreign Minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, stated that it is time for an international investigation to be launched into the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, adding that a United Nations (U.N.) special investigator will visit TURKEY soon. The key point to note is that TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, ordered preparations to be made to carry the Jamal Khashoggi case to an international level, although SAUDI ARABIA insists that justice will prevail in the Jamal Khashoggi trial in SAUDI ARABIA. However, TURKEY obviously wanted SAUDI ARABIA to extradite to TURKEY all those accused of carrying out the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, to be tried in TURKISH courts, that SAUDI ARABIA categorically refused. Thus, the U.N. special investigator on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions has advised that she will travel to TURKEY next week to head an independent international inquiry into the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. That is, Agnes Callamard, the special investigator on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions, publicly stated that she would evaluate the circumstances of the crime and the nature and extent of states’ and individuals’ responsibilities for the killing. Furthermore, Agnes Callamard stated that she would report on the findings from her five-day visit to the U.N. human rights council in June. Furthermore, Agnes Callamard confirmed that the inquiry was being conducted at her formal request, whereby three experts would accompany her, with forensic expertise among their skill sets. It is important to note that Agnes Callamard, a French academic who is director of the Columbia Global Freedom of Expression Department at Columbia University in New York, reports to the U.N. Human Rights Council in Geneva, Switzerland and has a global mandate to investigate executions. Ironically, the development came as western businesses moved to normalise relations with SAUDI ARABIA at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland where SAUDI ARABIA sent a large-scale ministerial delegation that formally expressed its sorrow at the Jamal Khashoggi killing.

TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

This week’s focus in TURKEY seemed to shift to the TURKISH struggling economy, largely attributable to a lack of confidence by foreign investors, due largely to TURKEY’s repressive crackdown measures on all opposition movements. In my opinion, over the last two plus years, TURKEY has been radically transformed with emergency measures used to consolidate authoritarian powers, silence opposition voices and take away basic human rights and civil liberties. However, the behaviours of TURKEY’s governing AKP seem to be taking their toll on the TURKISH economy, as turbulent politics have resulted in economic turmoil, whereby the sliding TURKISH Lira has set-off alarm bells across TURKEY, as businesses struggle to cope with the financial impacts of a declining TURKISH Lira. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blaming the rest of the world for waging an economic war against TURKEY, while most reputable economists would tend to agree that the TURKISH government has forced their central banks to follow counterproductive, if not destructive economic policies, is a sure sign that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is living in a delusional reality.

In my opinion, the underlying problem is that TURKISH banks and companies borrowed a lot of U.S. dollars, as TURKISH foreign currency debt represents about 30% of TURKEY’s GDP, such that TURKEY is now struggling to pay down the debt as the TURKISH Lira is falling. In my opinion, TURKEY’s economy is struggling in large part due to the TURKISH Lira losing almost 40% of its value against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year, albeit recovering slightly since it hit its lows during October’ 2018. In my opinion, there are a slew of reasons dissuading investors from TURKEY, but at the end of the day, many investors continue to try to liquidate their TURKISH Lira given that it has been dropping fast since the beginning of the year. Thus, the solution from my point-of-view is quite obvious, that TURKEY needs to raise interest rates in order to counter its problems of high inflation and a declining TURKISH Lira, while its economy should be able to bear the brunt of higher interest rates, without significant drops in current production levels.

Thus, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued to focus on TURKEY’s fragile economy, that received another economic blow recently, when TURKEY’s growth forecasts for this year and next were dramatically reduced, triggering further drops in the value of the TURKISH Lira. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY seems to find itself in an awkward position, like a dog chasing its tail, as TURKEY has seen its currency plunge over 40% this year, over investor concerns about President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s influence over monetary policy and a horrible diplomatic separation from the U.S. In my opinion, the TURKISH economic turbulence has shaken global financial markets and created the potential for a banking crisis that could have a disastrous domino effect across the entire global financial markets. In my opinion, TURKEY’s banks face a potential barrage of bad debts as the TURKISH Lira sell-off has driven up the cost for companies to service their foreign currency denominated loans.

That is, TURKISH companies have been borrowing in U.S. Dollars and Euros for years, to take advantage of lower interest rates, but it appears that the private sector has accumulated over $145 billion in foreign currency denominated debt, maturing during the upcoming year. Nonetheless, Berat Albayrak, TURKEY’s finance minister stated that TURKEY does not foresee a big risk on the TURKISH economy and banking system as the TURKISH economy has strong fundamentals. Hence, although THE ROCK kindly and politely offered his consulting services to Berat Albayrak to help TURKEY straighten out their economic and geopolitical mess, Berat Albayrak seems to be heading in the right direction as TURKEY continued this week to focus on the TURKISH economy. In my opinion, TURKEY has been somewhat effective with economic measures implemented by the TURKISH administration that successfully stymied the negative impacts of inflation and TURKISH Lira crisis, while ensuring stability in the financial markets, exchange rates and TURKEY’s macroeconomic outlook for the future. In my opinion, Berat Albayrak appropriately underscored that the TURKISH economy maintained a growth trend in 2018 despite economic problems, with the goal of reaching an economic growth rate of 3.5% in 2020 and 5% by 2021. In my opinion, the TURKISH economy does now offer impressive advantages, as TURKEY has a young and educated labour force, highly competitive private sector and TURKISH exports now hitting $170 billion, after having strengthened the TURKISH balance sheet in the most difficulty 2018 times by ensuring budget discipline.

In my opinion, Berat Albayrak sounds like President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which is not surprising as he is his son-in-law such that Berat Albayrak seems to be significantly influenced by the President and seems to be extremely reluctant to go against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s firm belief in the need to maintain interest rates stable at around 17%. However, in my opinion, TURKEY faces the risk of a rapid slowdown in the TURKISH economy that could potentially culminate in a difficult recession unless TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, takes urgent steps to rebalance the TURKISH economy while fuelling investor confidence. In my opinion, TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, acted appropriately, by declaring war on soaring inflation and calling on TURKEY’s businesses to cut prices by 10% to counter runaway inflation, that has driven up the price of everything from food to fuel, and sent inflation to 25% last month, its highest in 15 years. In my opinion, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s unorthodox brand of economics whereby inflation should not be contained by raising interest rates or other traditional measures, but rather by employing supply-side measures to reduce costs, may very well work for medium, large and government controlled organizations.

In my opinion, the TURKISH Lira dropped, over 2% against the US$, which was not surprising after Turkish President Recep Tayyip warned that TURKEY has military forces stationed along the SYRIAN border, ready to launch an offensive into northern Syria, as a necessary lesson to the KURDISH fighters. However, in my opinion, given that the KURDISH fighters have been U.S. allies throughout the entire war against ISIS, U.S. President Donald Trump made the right decision to threaten TURKEY with economic devastation if TURKEY attacks the KURDS. Nonetheless, in my opinion, a negotiated agreement to create a safe zone is a realistic compromise, allowing TURKEY to protect its border without triggering a full onslaught by the TURKISH military against KURDISH forces that have earned the respect from the U.S. and the world for their gallant efforts in the war against ISIS. Thus, this week’s announcement by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan making it clear that TURKEY is ready to take over security in MANBIJ, SYRIA, controlled by U.S. backed KURDISH YPG forces, will be difficult to implement in practice as the KURDISH YPG are reluctant to withdraw from this territory. However, in my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump should remain committed to withdraw all 2,000 U.S. troops from SYRIA, regardless of whether the ISIS militant group has been defeated, as the U.S. will obtain minimal future economic benefits from SYRIA, given that President Bashar al-Assad will being doing future business with his allies RUSSIA and IRAN. Nonetheless, the ailing TURKISH economy is a major issue for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who built his political success on supercharging TURKISH economic growth and prosperity that will now be put to the electoral test. Thus, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will once again try to blame the ailing TURKISH economy on outside foreign powers, such that he will probably return to his previous stance of comparing Jews to bacteria, and referring to the Jews as The Mastermind conspiracy preventing TURKEY from taking their rightful place as a world superpower.

In my opinion, I was not surprised to see TURKEY focus its attention on IDLIB and continue to warn the SYRIAN regime, RUSSIA and IRAN, that an all-out military offensive on IDLIB could lead to a disastrous outcome for TURKEY, by triggering a new wave of refugees heading towards the TURKISH borders. In my opinion, TURKEY has already sheltered 3.5 million SYRIANS such that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is under significant domestic pressure to not take in any more refugees. Nonetheless, RUSSIA’s worries about AL-QAEDA linked terrorist groups based in IDLIB are legitimate but a full-scale military attack is not the way to deal with this situation as it will certainly put the lives of all innocent civilians at risk and create a humanitarian crisis. Thus, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan needs to receive full credit for being able to negotiate a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA, in recent months, to spare IDLIB from disastrous consequences for the time being. In my opinion, the large quantities of weapons entering SYRIA, in recent months, indicated that TURKEY would be providing complete TURKISH military support for a long drawn-out battle over IDLIB, if necessary. Thus, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin once again made the right strategic decision to hold back the SAA and IRANIANS from engaging in a full fledge military assault on IDLIB that in my opinion will have disastrous consequences for all parties. However, in my opinion the withdrawal of all the so-called radical fighters from the area by October 15, that includes hardline Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is dominated by a rebel faction previously linked to al-Qaeda, were obviously not yet persuaded to leave IDLIB peacefully.

Thus, in my opinion, the threats coming from terrorists based in SYRIA’s IDLIB province to launch a large-scale operation on the northern areas of neighbouring Latakia and Hama provinces should be taken seriously. Thus, in my opinion, this week’s HTS signed ceasefire deal with what was left of the rival NLF alliance that sees HTS supremacy and unison of the region under a HTS led administration will create more difficulties for the SAA. However, in my opinion, the U.S. announcement of its intention for a complete withdrawal from SYRIA, appears to have indirectly given the SAA the ability to prepare for a full fledge assault on IDLIB, as the war between the SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad and rebel forces appear to be entering the final phase, as President Bashar al-Assad now appears ready, willing and able to consolidate all of SYRIA under his control, while the rebels vow to fight until death to hold onto their respective territories. Thus, the Free Syrian Police (FSP), a symbol of SYRIA’s revolution and a recipient of international support, ceasing operations following the HTS takeover of IDLIB, is not surprising. However, in my opinion, the FSP operations should continue, instead of deploying other HTS elements connected to a military faction, as the damage in IDLIB will not likely be exacerbated as the FSP have stopped working on security, corruption and the spread of robberies and crimes. Furthermore, in my opinion, a large number of police officers who are defectors from the FSP will be harmed by becoming unemployed, and thus will further damage the safety network of IDLIB society in general. Thus, in my opinion, this week’s announcement by the RUSSIAN foreign ministry that the situation was rapidly deteriorating such that IDLIB was almost under the full control of the HTS rebel group, previously linked to al-Qaeda, should trigger a coordinated military effort between RUSSIA and TURKEY to stabilise the situation in IDLIB.

In my opinion, the international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY has still not been resolved. Furthermore, consequences for anyone, even a member of the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family, found responsible for the assassination, must be enforced to the fullest extent of the law as the audio recordings of Jamal Khashoggi being assaulted, tortured, killed and dismembered inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate, are disturbing and down right psychopathic in nature. Thus, TURKEY led a relentless campaign to hold SAUDI ARABIA accountable, as TURKISH authorities have allowed media leaks to the international press. Thus, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see CIA Director Gina Haspel garnering extensive support for her conclusion, from both top Republican and top Democratic leaders. However, it was surprising to see the entire Senate Committee vote unanimously to overrule U.S. President Donald Trump, by officially blaming Crown Prince MBS for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. Nonetheless, in my opinion U.S. President Donald Trump has made the right decision to stick with Crown Price MBS on the basis that there is no substantive evidence to link him to the crime. Thus, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA appropriately denounced the U.S. Senate resolutions blaming Crown Prince MBS for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, as they were based on unsubstantiated claims. In my opinion, the Senate Committee vote was a rare rebuke to U.S. President Donald Trump, but largely symbolic in nature, as to become law, the Bill would need to pass the House of Representatives, whose Republican leaders have blocked any legislation intended to rebuke SAUDI ARABIA.

In my opinion, the final official SAUDI ARABIAN version remaining that the SAUDI ARABIAN assassins killed Jamal Khashoggi with an injection of sedatives, and then immediately set to work dismembering him and hiding his remains, clearly answers the question of who, what, when, where and how but the remaining question of why still remains unclear. In my opinion, the 11 Jamal Khashoggi murder suspects put on trial, demanding the death penalty for 5, is completely expected. However, in my opinion, the 5 death sentence decisions will in substance result in SAUDI ARABIA preventing those people responsible from speaking publicly. Thus, in my opinion, it is to the benefit of SAUDI ARABIA for the truth about Jamal Khashoggi to disappear with the 5 planned executions, such that at this stage it appears that SAUDI ARABIA will execute a 5 to 1 exchange.

Nonetheless, in my opinion, this week’s announcement by the U.N. special investigator on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions that she will travel to TURKEY next week to head an independent international inquiry into the murder of Jamal Khashoggi is not surprising as this killing has triggered international outrage. However, in my opinion, Agnes Callamard’s evaluation of the circumstances of the crime, and the nature and extent of states’ and individuals’ responsibilities for the killing, will likely reveal very little new information. That is, Agnes Callamard was forced by an international uproar to conduct a formal review, albeit it is highly unlikely that her team will stumble upon any information, other than evidence of a circumstantial nature that will link Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family to the crime. However, in my opinion, the international uproar has triggered this mainly symbolic public gesture to insure that the appropriate conclusions were reached based on substantive evidence obtained.

Therefore, in my opinion, Agnes Callamard will be forced to corroborate the famous O.J. Simpson closing arguments at the trial, whereby the lawyer Johnny Cochran uttered the now famous words, if the glove does not fit, you must acquit, in a dramatic scene whereby O.J. Simpson appeared to have difficulty getting the glove on that was stained with blood of both victims and O.J. Simpson, that had been found at the crime scene. Thus, in my opinion, Agnes Callamard, a French academic reports to the U.N. Human Rights Council in Geneva, Switzerland and has a global mandate to investigate executions, obviously has the necessary credentials to execute her mandate but in my opinion, she cannot go against the rules of international law predicated on substantive evidence. Thus, in my opinion, the development that came as western businesses moved to normalise relations with SAUDI ARABIA at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland depicts the modern geopolitical realities whereby money talks and circumstantial evidence walks. That is, in my opinion, James Gorman, CEO of Morgan Stanley said it best in Davos, whereby, the murder of Jamal Khashoggi was unacceptable, but what is the alternative for a French oil company like Total, who cannot afford to sanction or boycott SAUDI ARABIA, as normal model law-abiding citizens end up suffering the most from boycotts and sanctions. Thus, in my opinion, it appears to be more logical for the international community to now focus its attention on leveraging the Jamal Khashoggi killing to obtain concessions such as allowing a BRITISH panel of MP’s to go to SAIDI ARABIA to investigate allegations that women’s rights activists are being tortured and sexually harassed in detention. In my opinion, the U.K. has so far been stonewalled by SAUDI ARABIA in its efforts to access the eight detained women activists, arrested between May and July, and then branded as traitors in the SAUDI ARABIAN press. In my opinion, Human Rights Watch claims there have been credible reports from members of the women’s families that they have also been denied medical access, as well as maltreated. Therefore, in my opinion, this is an opportune time for the international community to pressure SAUDI ARABIA, as these women are celebrities of the international women’s movement, such that there is an enormous global focus on what is happening to them in the media. Thus, in my opinion, this is a clear opportunity for SAUDI ARABIA to send a strong signal to the world that things have changed in SAUDI ARABIA by agreeing to work with the BRITISH panel of MP’s to liberate the eight detained women activists.

IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

As a friendly reminder, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives, to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ has obtained the necessary political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ to avert a new set of extremists in IRAQ. That is, given that the SUNNIS were brought back into the IRAQI political system, that should be the end of a significant ISIS uprising, as if the SUNNIS are not satisfied with their political voice, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.

As a friendly reminder, either a coalition under Moqtada al-Sadr was expected to emerge or a pro-IRANIAN coalition under the Fatah Alliance was expected to emerge such that either way, it seemed that the U.S. presence in IRAQ would likely diminish over time. Ironically, after months of negotiations, Barham Salih was voted by parliament into the position of President with his first act naming Adil Abdul-Mahdi to be prime minister, who formed his government during November’ 2018. Thus, it seems that the results of the elections were bypassed for the benefit of stability, as this new duo represents the old IRAQI regime, as both have been active in IRAQI politics since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003. That is, President Barham Salih was previously deputy prime minister of IRAQ and Prime Minister of IRAQI Kurdistan while Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi was formerly vice president of IRAQ and more recently oil minister. Thus, in my opinion, the election of President Barham Salih, a KURD, and his nomination of Adil Abdul-Mahdi to be prime minister, a Shiite, seems to have broken months of political deadlock in IRAQ after an inconclusive May election result that everybody seems to have agreed to scrap. Nonetheless, with IRAQ’s prime minister-designate Adel Abdul Mahdi presenting his new cabinet to the IRAQI parliament for approval, although he has no parliamentary block of his own to stand on, and is thus dependent on the blocks of cleric MUQTADA AL-SADR and pro-IRANIAN militia leader HADI AL-AMIRI for his position, Adel Abdul Mahdi will most likely not be able to control IRAQI corruption or challenge existing underlying militia influences in IRAQ.

In regards to recent uncertainty looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, the new president and prime minister will have a difficult time translating recent political developments into concrete changes. Nonetheless, it is important to note that for the first time ever, the IRAQI parliament voted freely for IRAQ’s next president, with Barham Salih winning by a landslide vote of 219 to 22 over his competitor, representing a step in the right direction, given that Barham Salih acclaimed a clear majority. Thus, in my opinion, this vote marks a departure from last summer’s election shake-up, with some two-thirds of the members of IRAQI parliament now being new to the job, as growing protest movements exposed IRAQI citizen disillusionment with the political process, while increasing pressure on the IRAQI parliament for significant change. Nonetheless, in my opinion, poor governance, lack of public infrastructure and high levels of corruption, particularly in poor SUNNI areas, is helping to fuel ISIS’s objectives of a comeback after its crushing defeat. Unfortunately for IRAQ, the U.S. sanctions on IRAN seem to be arriving at the worst possible time, as the embargo on its IRANIAN neighbour could hit jobs in IRAQ and cut off a crucial source of relatively cheap imports into IRAQ.

In my opinion, with 80% of the products on the market in IRAQ being IRANIAN made, if the border closes, it will be an economic crisis for IRAQ. Thus, I was not surprised to see many IRAQIS pushing the IRAQI government to maintain trade relations with IRAN because IRAQ, which shares around 1,450 kilometers of border with IRAN, will be badly hurt by the IRANIAN sanctions. In my opinion, IRAQ relies on IRAN for gas supplies, electricity, water and food such that the U.S. has placed IRAQ in a loser position, as by attempting to cut-off the head of IRAN, the U.S. cut-off the waist of IRAQ, such that although IRAN suffers most without its head, IRAQ is unable to reproduce without its waist. In my opinion, IRAQ will certainly experience shortages of key products if IRAQ complies with all of the U.S. sanctions that could lead to political turmoil at a critical crossroads period in IRAQI politics. Therefore, I was not surprised to see Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi, clearly state that IRAQ has presented the U.S. with a framework, from which the IRAQI delegation will go to the U.S. to negotiate, with a clear vision of what IRAQ really needs, which includes IRANIAN natural gas, electricity and other critical trade related products that fuel the IRAQI economy.

Nonetheless, I was not surprised to see the deadly protests continuing to rage in IRAQ over the lack of basic services and government corruption as IRAQI security forces were bracing for new rounds of violent protests. In my opinion, intermittent electricity availabilities, undrinkable water, unemployment and frustrations with the political system will certainly result in more IRAQI protests. In my opinion, it is easier said than done for IRAQI security forces to protect and facilitate peaceful demonstrations when frustrated IRAQI populace hurl stones and Molotov cocktails at local IRAQI government buildings and IRAQI security forces. Furthermore, tensions were once again high in IRAQ this week, amid speculations among IRAQI officials that the U.S. will begin to draw down the 5,200 U.S. military personnel based in IRAQ. In my opinion, in view of the defeat of ISIS on the ground in late 2017, and subsequent to U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a complete withdrawal from SYRIA, it is only a matter of time before the U.S. will withdraw from IRAQ. However, in my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump will stick to his guns, as he has been extremely vocal that the U.S. has spent over US$ 7 Trillion in the MIDDLE EAST, with nothing to show for it, such that he has long favoured seizing IRAQ’s oil, while at a minimum IRAQ will have to renegotiate business relationships with the U.S. in order to warrant future U.S. involvement in IRAQ.

Thus, in my opinion, this week’s SAUDI ARABIAN Crown Prince MBS offer of full support for IRAQ’s continued security, to fill the void left behind by a potential U.S. withdrawal from IRAQ, is not surprising. Hence, in my opinion Crown Prince MBS is seeking to reassure U.S. partners in the region after U.S. President Donald Trump’s abrupt decision last month to withdraw troops from SYRIA, as SAUDI ARABIA seeks to satisfy U.S. interests subsequent to the Jamal Khashoggi killing, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump gave Crown Prince MBS his full support for innocence. In my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA is courting IRAQ as part of a combined effort with the U.S. to stem the growing regional influence of IRAN, while IRAQ is seeking economic benefits from closer ties with SAUDI ARABIA. Hence, in my opinion, Crown Prince MBS’s timing this week was impeccable with IRAQ approving its US$ 112 billion budget for 2019 that authorises a reconstruction fund for provinces liberated from ISIS in the 2014 to 2017 war, with a sum of US$ 28 billion for investment projects, while the 2019 budget still projects a US$ 23 billion deficit in 2019, that SAUDI ARABIA is obviously ready, willing and able to fund. In my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA which is of a majority SUNNI Muslim background is the perfect financial backer for SUNNI Muslim parts of Iraq, which bore the brunt of the fighting during the war against ISIS, but that now seem to be underfunded by the SHIA-led central government in IRAQ, as the budget appears to be lacking to help the liberated SUNNI Muslim areas.

SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

As a friendly reminder, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN ally recently retook a town, DERAA that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war, as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war. Thus, in my opinion, the shift now in focus of the SAA campaign to IDLIB was expected, as it is unacceptable that terrorists, particularly the AL-NUSRA FRONT, are using the de-escalation area of IDLIB to attack the SYRIAN army and to also attack the RUSSIAN military bases in the area by utilizing drones. However, in my opinion, TURKISH backed opposition groups in IDLIB that have attempted to unify into a new coalition, with some 70,000 fighters pledging to fight against SAA forces without the terrorist group, Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the most dominant rebel force in IDLIB in control of about 60% of the province, will not be able to indefinitely withstand the impending SAA and RUSSIAN military onslaught. Furthermore, in my opinion, a major military operation in IDLIB could pose a particularly threatening humanitarian crisis because there is no opposition held territory remaining in SYRIA, where people could be evacuated to, such that as many as 2.5 million SYRIANS could try to flee to the closed TURKISH border, creating a new refugee crisis of catastrophic proportions.

Hence, in my opinion, although RUSSIA’s worries about AL-QAEDA linked terrorist groups based in IDLIB are legitimate, a full-scale military attack is not the way to deal with this situation as it will certainly put the lives of all innocent civilians at risk and create a humanitarian crisis. Thus, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan needs to receive full credit for being able to negotiate a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA to spare IDLIB from disastrous consequences for the time being. In my opinion, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin is by far the best negotiator currently in the region, who always seems to be able to remain cool, calm and collected, as he once again made the right strategic decision to hold back the SAA and IRANIANS from engaging in a full fledge military assault on IDLIB that in my opinion will have disastrous consequences for all parties.

Thus, I was not surprised to see an opposition government in IDLIB backed by HTS, imposing Islamic Sharia law, which calls for severe retribution for lawbreakers, in order to consolidate their power in the region. However, in my opinion, the sheer rigidity and brutality of Islamic Sharia law may actually have the opposite impact, and alienate local citizens, as perpetrators of abductions and armed robberies will be executed, have their hands cut off or be exiled, depending upon the crime. Thus, in my opinion, the threats coming from terrorists based in SYRIA’s IDLIB province to launch a large-scale operation on the northern areas of neighbouring Latakia and Hama provinces should be taken seriously. Thus, in my opinion, this week’s HTS signing of ceasefire deal with what was left of rival NLF alliance sees HTS supremacy and unison of the region under a HTS led administration creating more difficulties for the SAA. However, in my opinion, the U.S. announcement of its intention for a complete withdrawal from SYRIA, appears to have indirectly given the SAA the ability to prepare for a full fledge assault on IDLIB, as the war between the SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad and rebel forces appear to be entering the final phase, as President Bashar al-Assad now appears ready, willing and able to consolidate all of SYRIA under his control, while the rebels vow to fight until death to hold onto their respective territories. Thus, the Free Syrian Police (FSP), a symbol of SYRIA’s revolution and a recipient of international support, ceasing operations following the HTS takeover of IDLIB, is not surprising. However, in my opinion, the FSP operations should continue, instead of deploying other HTS elements connected to a military faction, as the damage in IDLIB will not likely be exacerbated as the FSP have stopped working on security, corruption and the spread of robberies and crimes. Furthermore, in my opinion, a large number of police officers who are defectors from the FSP will be harmed by becoming unemployed, and thus will further damage the safety network of IDLIB society in general. Thus, in my opinion, this week’s announcement by the RUSSIAN foreign ministry that the situation was rapidly deteriorating such that IDLIB was almost under the full control of the HTS rebel group, previously linked to al-Qaeda, should trigger a coordinated military effort between RUSSIA and TURKEY to stabilise the situation in IDLIB.

Meanwhile, in regards to escalation of tensions in recent months between ISRAEL and IRAN, I am not surprised to see ISRAEL continuing to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. In my opinion, ISRAEL will not back down from its position that IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, in recent months, IRANIAN forces have pulled back from the Golan Heights that should be welcomed as a positive development, although ISRAEL clearly stated that such a pull back is insufficient, with no compromises or concessions from ISRAEL’s position of a complete withdrawal being necessary. In my opinion, tensions have obviously risen once again since IRANIAN’s were fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency that has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. The recent sanctions that target IRANIAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN’s auto sector that took effect seem to reflect the U.S. belief that IRAN will eventually surrender via the pressure tactics of sanctions. However, in my opinion IRAN’s pride runs through the veins of a majority of IRANIANS who would prefer to eat sand and drink sewage water before conceding to U.S. pressure tactics via sanctions.

In my opinion, the U.S. withdrawal from the IRAN nuclear deal has already badly shaken IRAN’s economy, crashing its currency, the IRANAN Rial, such that IRAN will have to choose to either come back to the negotiating table with the U.S. or watch its IRANIAN economy suffer from re-imposed U.S. sanctions. Thus, I was not surprised at U.S. President, Donald Trump warning that the U.S. is developing a new strategy for the war in SYRIA that would focus more heavily on pushing IRAN’s military and its proxy forces out of SYRIA. In my opinion, the new U.S. strategy would probably not involve the U.S. military directly targeting and killing IRANIAN soldiers or IRANIAN proxies, given that the U.S. military only has the right of self-defence authorization in SYRIA, and thus should only strike IRANIAN targets if the U.S. feels threatened. In my opinion, the U.S. plan will likely focus on political and diplomatic efforts to force IRAN out of SYRIA by squeezing SYRIA financially. That is, the U.S. will likely withhold reconstruction aid from areas where IRANIAN and RUSSIAN forces are present and also impose sanctions on RUSSIAN and IRANIAN companies working on reconstruction in SYRIA. Ironically, IRAN seems to be heading in the direction of weathering the storm created by the crippling U.S. sanctions on IRAN’s oil industry that came back into full force during November’ 2018. Therefore, IRAN’s strategy seems to be heading in the direction of maintaining a status-quo arrangement until the fate of U.S. President Donald Trump becomes clearer in terms of whether he will ultimately be elected to serve a second term in 2020.

However, U.S. President, Donald Trump, then seemed to realize that he needed an ally in the Middle East and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY. Nonetheless, I am not surprised that U.S. President, Donald Trump, seems to have sided with the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by initially speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty. Furthermore, I was not surprised that U.S. President, Donald Trump did not hide from the U.S. realities that he does not want the U.S. lucrative business relationships with SAUDI ARABIA to change. Hence, in my opinion, the Jamal Khashoggi scandal will shortly come to an end, with the Crown Prince Mohammed Ben Salmen (MBS) and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family walking away absolved, as TURKEY has not produced adequate substantive evidence to pin them with the crime, other than an abundance of circumstantial evidence that they ordered the hit as defacto rulers of SAUDI ARABIA. Hence, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA has appropriately indicted 11 suspects in the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, with five facing the death penalty, such that if SAUDI ARABIA proceeds with the executions, neither TURKEY nor any other country will ever hear the testimonies of the accused, such that the accused versions of the events will in essence be buried in their graves. However, in my opinion, it is to the benefit of SAUDI ARABIA for the truth about Jamal Khashoggi to disappear with the 5 planned executions, such that at this stage it appears that SAUDI ARABIA will execute a 5 to 1 exchange.

Thus, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see CIA Director Gina Haspel garnering extensive support for her conclusion, from both top Republican and top Democratic leaders. However, it was surprising to see the entire Senate Committee vote unanimously to overrule U.S. President Donald Trump, by officially blaming Crown Prince MBS for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. Nonetheless, in my opinion U.S. President Donald Trump has made the right decision to stick with Crown Price MBS on the basis that there is no substantive evidence to link him to the crime. In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump hit the nail on the head when he clearly stated that Crown Prince MBS has vehemently denied involvement in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi such that the U.S. cannot condemn the leader of a good ally on the basis of circumstantial evidence. In my opinion, given that Crown Prince MBS vehemently denies involvement in the murder, the rule of international law must apply of innocent until proven guilt by a court of law based on substantive evidence. Thus, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA appropriately denounced the U.S. Senate resolutions blaming Crown Prince MBS for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, as they were based on unsubstantiated claims. In my opinion, the Senate Committee vote was a rare rebuke to U.S. President Donald Trump, but largely symbolic in nature, as to become law, the Bill would need to pass the House of Representatives, whose Republican leaders have blocked any legislation intended to rebuke SAUDI ARABIA.

Nonetheless, this week’s announcement by the U.N. special investigator on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions that she will travel to TURKEY next week to head an independent international inquiry into the murder of Jamal Khashoggi is not surprising as this killing has triggered international outrage. However, in my opinion, Agnes Callamard’s evaluation of the circumstances of the crime, and the nature and extent of states’ and individuals’ responsibilities for the killing, will likely reveal very little new information. That is, Agnes Callamard was forced by an international uproar to conduct a formal review, albeit it is highly unlikely that her team will stumble upon any information, other than evidence of a circumstantial nature that will link Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family to the crime. However, in my opinion, the international uproar has triggered this mainly symbolic public gesture to insure that the appropriate conclusions were reached based on substantive evidence obtained. Therefore, in my opinion, Agnes Callamard will be forced to corroborate the famous O.J. Simpson closing arguments at the trial, whereby the lawyer Johnny Cochran uttered the now famous words, if the glove does not fit, you must acquit, in a dramatic scene whereby O.J. Simpson appeared to have difficulty getting the glove on that was stained with blood of both victims and O.J. Simpson, that had been found at the crime scene. Thus, in my opinion, Agnes Callamard, a French academic reports to the U.N. Human Rights Council in Geneva, Switzerland and has a global mandate to investigate executions, obviously has the necessary credentials to execute her mandate but in my opinion, she cannot go against the rules of international law predicated on substantive evidence.

Thus, in my opinion, the development that came as western businesses moved to normalise relations with SAUDI ARABIA at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland depicts the modern geopolitical realities whereby money talks and circumstantial evidence walks. That is, in my opinion, James Gorman, CEO of Morgan Stanley said it best in Davos, whereby, the murder of Jamal Khashoggi was unacceptable, but what is the alternative for a French oil company like Total, who cannot afford to sanction or boycott SAUDI ARABIA, as normal model law-abiding citizens end up suffering the most from boycotts and sanctions. Thus, in my opinion, it appears to be more logical for the international community to now focus its attention on leveraging the Jamal Khashoggi killing to obtain concessions such as allowing a BRITISH panel of MP’s to go to SAUDI ARABIA to investigate allegations that women’s rights activists are being tortured and sexually harassed in detention. In my opinion, the U.K. has so far been stonewalled by SAUDI ARABIA in its efforts to access the eight detained women activists, arrested between May and July, and then branded as traitors in the SAUDI ARABIAN press. In my opinion, Human Rights Watch claims there have been credible reports from members of the women’s families that they have also been denied medical access, as well as maltreated. Therefore, in my opinion, this is an opportune time for the international community to pressure SAUDI ARABIA, as these women are celebrities of the international women’s movement, such that there is an enormous global focus on what is happening to them in the media. Thus, in my opinion, this is a clear opportunity for SAUDI ARABIA to send a strong signal to the world that things have changed in SAUDI ARABIA by agreeing to work with the BRITISH panel of MP’s to liberate the eight detained women activists.

In my opinion, the current situation in the Middle East depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War that would likely be triggered by a direct ISRAEL and IRAN conflict, such that all leaders across the globe must avoid the temptation to look away but rather should increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, minimize civilian casualties, prevent the further use of chemical weapons and alleviate the humanitarian crisis from a civil war spiralling out of control with no end in sight, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the Middle East. That being said, the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while subsequently being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as the U.N. special investigator on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions, Agnes Callamard announced that she will travel to TURKEY to head an independent international inquiry into the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, which is not surprising as this killing has triggered international outrage, albeit the evaluation of the circumstances of the crime, and the nature and extent of states’ and individuals’ responsibilities for the killing, will likely reveal very little new information, other than evidence of a circumstantial nature that will link Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family to the crime, forcing the U.N. to corroborate the famous O.J. Simpson closing arguments at the trial, whereby the lawyer Johnny Cochran uttered the now famous words, if the glove does not fit, you must acquit, in a dramatic scene whereby O.J. Simpson appeared to have difficulty getting the glove on that was stained with blood of both victims and O.J. Simpson, that had been found at the crime scene, thus more logical for the international community to now focus its attention on leveraging the Jamal Khashoggi killing to obtain concessions, such as allowing a BRITISH panel of MP’s to go to SAUDI ARABIA to investigate allegations that women’s rights activists are being tortured and sexually harassed in detention, as this is an opportune time to pressure SAUDI ARABIA, as these women are celebrities of the international women’s movement, such that there is an enormous global focus on what is happening to them in the media, hence, in my opinion, this is a clear opportunity for SAUDI ARABIA to send a strong signal to the world that things have changed by agreeing to work with the BRITISH panel of MP’s to liberate the eight detained women activists.

In my opinion, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, although ISIS was literally disappearing from the face of the map in SYRIA, new showdowns between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) only serves to fuel the re-emergence of ISIS as a dangerous player in SYRIA. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS. Thus, in my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and utter madness.

Summary

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 335” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as the U.N. special investigator on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions, Agnes Callamard, announced that she will travel to TURKEY to head an independent international inquiry into the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, which is not surprising as this killing has triggered international outrage, albeit the evaluation of the circumstances of the crime, and the nature and extent of states’ and individuals’ responsibilities for the killing, will likely reveal very little new information, other than evidence of a circumstantial nature that will link Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family to the crime, forcing the U.N. to corroborate the famous O.J. Simpson closing arguments at the trial, whereby the lawyer Johnny Cochran uttered the now famous words, if the glove does not fit, you must acquit, in a dramatic scene whereby O.J. Simpson appeared to have difficulty getting the glove on, that was stained with blood of both victims and O.J. Simpson, that had been found at the crime scene, thus it is more logical for the international community to now focus its attention on leveraging the Jamal Khashoggi killing to obtain concessions, such as allowing a BRITISH panel of MP’s to go to SAUDI ARABIA to investigate allegations that women’s rights activists are being tortured and sexually harassed in detention, as this is an opportune time to pressure SAUDI ARABIA, given that these women are celebrities of the international women’s movement, such that there is an enormous global focus on what is happening to them in the media, hence, in my opinion, this is a clear opportunity for SAUDI ARABIA to send a strong signal to the world that things have changed by agreeing to work with the BRITISH panel of MP’s to liberate the eight detained women activists.

Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:

January 27, 2019