In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 329” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as detailed transcripts emerged whereby Jamal Khashoggi repeatedly told his killers, that he could not breathe, during his final moments, which are quite shocking and disturbing, hence Jamal Khashoggi obviously never thought that his refusal to return to SAUDI ARABIA, would result with a quick end to his life, as the final transcript details identify noises, including “scream”, “gasping”, “saw” and “cutting”, for CIA Director Gina Haspel to obviously present a solid case behind her conclusion, that there is a high level of confidence that Crown Prince MBS was complicit in the murder, garnering extensive support from important U.S. politicians, albeit U.S. President Donald Trump made the right decision to stick with Crown Price MBS, on the basis that there is no substantive evidence to link him to the crime, as the risk associated with ASSUME, is that one can make an ASS out of U and ME, as when dealing with influential figures such as the Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family, one cannot ASSUME as the basis to prosecute, such that U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo focused on 17 members of SAUDI ARABIAN hit squad that were sanctioned accordingly, for U.S. President Donald Trump to set the right tone at the top, that the U.S. will not sanction its allies based on gossip, rumours and hearsay, as such a situation allows for leeway, such that the logical conclusion is to go the benefit of the doubt way.
TURKEY News
During the week ending on Sunday, December 16, 2018, the focus in TURKEY seemed to shift to the TURKISH struggling economy, largely attributable to a lack of confidence by foreign investors, due largely to TURKEY’s repressive crackdown measures on all opposition movements. It is important to note that, several months ago, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan allowed TURKEY’s two-year state of emergency to come to an end but as trials of dissidents and journalists continue, human rights campaigners continue to pressure TURKEY to do more to reverse a suffocating crackdown on free speech. Critics claim that the state of emergency, in place since the failed “Coup D’État” in July of 2016 that killed 250 people and wounded 1,400, has been used to detain opponents of the governing AKP for lengthy periods of time without trial to intimidate dissidents and to prosecute media outlets. That is, more than 120,000 people in the police, military, academia, media and civil service have been detained or dismissed from their jobs, over their alleged links to Fethullah Gulen, who is the exiled TURKISH preacher based now in the U.S., who TURKEY blames as the brains behind the operations for the failed “Coup D’État”.
However, the behaviours of TURKEY’s governing AKP seem to be taking their toll on the TURKISH economy as turbulent politics have resulted in economic turmoil whereby the sliding TURKISH Lira set-off alarm bells across TURKEY as businesses struggle to cope with the financial impacts of a declining TURKISH Lira. Unfortunately, TURKEY’s fragile economy recently received another economic blow when TURKEY’s growth forecasts for this year and next year were dramatically reduced, triggering further drops in the value of the TURKISH Lira. It is important to note that TURKISH Finance Minister Berat Albayrak stated that growth would be 3.8% this year and 2.3% in 2019, both revised downwards from the initial forecasts of 5.5%. Ironically, TURKEY’s finance minister insisted that TURKEYS’s economy did not face any significant risks, despite the TURKISH Lira plunging to its lowest point after new economic data was released that points to the risk of a sharp economic slowdown in TURKEY. However, the drop in the TURKISH Lira that had lost about 40% of its value against the U.S. dollar this year, hitting severe lows in October’ 2018, after TURKEY’s economic confidence index also hit extreme lows, has recovered slightly since. It is important to note that U.S. rating agency Moody’s downgraded 20 TURKISH financial institutions due to increased risks of a sudden shift in investor sentiment that could leave TURKISH banks struggling to attract foreign financing that keeps TURKISH banking sector liquid.
Thus, TURKISH banks that borrowed heavily abroad now face the near impossible task of refinancing short-term debt in expensive U.S. Dollars and E.U. Euros. It is important to note that around $180 billion in TURKISH foreign debt matures from now until the end of July of 2019, of which approximately $145 billion is owed by the private sector, particularly TURKISH banks, which borrowed heavily abroad in foreign denominated currencies. Therefore, TURKEY will be hit with a currency mismatch as TURKEY mostly earns returns on investments in TURKISH Lira, while it has to payback its foreign currency denominated debt by converting a plummeting TURKISH Lira, resulting in significantly higher debt payments. However, this week TURKISH Finance Minister, Berat Albayrak, continued to focus on the TURKISH economy, as TURKEY’s current account balance posted a surplus in October for the third consecutive month in a row. That is, in August, the balance posted a surplus for the first time over the past three years, with a $2.5 billion surplus, followed by a 1.8 billion surplus in September, culminating with October, whereby TURKEY’s current account surplus amounted to $2.7 billion, improving from a deficit of $3.8 billion in the same month last year. Furthermore, TURKEY’s economy grew by 1.6% in the third quarter of 2018 compared with the same period of last year. Calendar adjusted Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2018 increased by 2.1% compared with the same quarter of the previous year.
Thus, TURKISH Finance Minister Berat Albayrak who declared war on soaring inflation and called on TURKEY’s businesses to cut prices by 10% to counter runaway inflation, that has driven up the price of everything from food to fuel, and sent inflation to 25% during October’ 2018, its highest in 15 years continued with the firm stance of implementing this policy. Furthermore, TURKEY has already resorted to the seizure of numerous companies that have been accused of conspiring against the TURKISH government with speculation, opportunism and stockpiling. Furthermore, TURKISH police have also raided businesses, based on accusations of speculation, and shops and supermarkets, based on allegations of price gouging. Thus, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is calling on consumers to report shops and businesses for excessive price hikes in order for the police to investigate and resolve accordingly. However, this week, TURKEY’s economy is on track to end this year with two consecutive quarters of contraction, or a technical recession, in a sign that the TURKISH Lira’s crash in August of 2018, along with the ensuing rise in interest rates, are proving nearly as damaging for TURKEY as the failed “Coup D’État” in July of 2016. Of particular note, the economy contracted 1.1% on a quarterly basis in the July-to-September period while the GDP growth slowed to 1.6% from a year earlier. Therefore, the ailing TURKISH economy is a major issue for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who built his political success on supercharging TURKISH economic growth and prosperity. Thus, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is already laying the groundwork to blame the ailing TURKISH economy on outside foreign powers, such as George Soros, who is the famous Hungarian Jew that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan previously blamed for apparently conspiring against the TURKISH government to divide and shatter the TURKISH nation.
However, TURKEY’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued to warn the SYRIAN regime, RUSSIA and IRAN that an all-out military offensive on IDLIB could lead to a disastrous outcome for TURKEY by triggering a new wave of refugees heading towards the TURKISH borders. Thus, the world has been bracing for weeks for the Bashar al-Assad Syrian Arab Army (SAA) to attack IDLIB, where around 2.5 million civilians are living in opposition-held territory with no clear escape routes if fighting escalates. Hence, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reached a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA, in recent months, to prevent an all-out attack on IDLIB, as TURKEY is worried that an attack on IDLIB will trigger a mass exodus of refugees fleeing towards the TURKISH border. It is important to note that the weapons, which have entered SYRIA in large quantities, in recent months, including ammunition and GRAD rockets, clearly indicated that TURKEY would be providing complete TURKISH military support, for a long drawn-out battle over IDLIB, if necessary, that functioned as an effective deterrent from a full scale attack by the SAA and its RUSSIAN and IRANIAN backed allies. However, in recent months, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which includes former AL-QAEDA terrorist fighters among its ranks, seems to be attempting to consolidate power in northern SYRIA with waves of arrests of civilians during the TURKEY and RUSSIAN brokered ceasefire.
Therefore, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave the HTS rebels inside the IDLIB buffer zone another warning to leave the designated RUSSIA and TURKEY designated demilitarized zone. Furthermore, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made it clear that if HTS rebels refuse to leave the designated demilitarized zone, TURKEY will allow the SAA and RUSSIAN Air Force to resume their operations against them in northwestern SYRIA. However, in recent months, two of the largest terrorist groups in IDLIB clashed consisting of HTS rebels and their allies from the Hurras Al-Deen (HAD) organization. That is, clashes between HTS and HAD occurred at the checkpoint of the northern bridge of the SARAQIB town, with both sides calling in reinforcements, amid fears among the citizens of the escalation of clashes. Thus, recently, the TURKISH backed National Liberation Front (NLF) were placed on high alert in the IDLIB province after the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) began moving their troops to the front-lines near the demilitarized zone. It is important to note that Naji al-Musfata, the spokesman for the NLF, has publically declared that NLF forces are fully prepared for an imminent attack by the SAA. Hence, this week, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) launched a powerful assault against terrorist rebels in southern IDLIB and northern HAMA. That is, the SAA fired a number of surface-to-surface missiles towards the defenses of JAYSH AL-IZZA and their allies in the town of KAFR NABOUDEH (northern HAMA) and JARJANAZ (southern IDLIB). The SAA then expanded their assault to the southeastern countryside of IDLIB, where they targeted HTS positions at the towns of AL-TAMAN’AH, KHUWAYN, and SUKEEK.
Meanwhile, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that TURKEY would continue to buy natural gas from IRAN in line with its long-term supply contracts despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to punish countries doing business with IRAN. Hence, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made it clear that TURKEY must be realistic, as TURKEY cannot let people freeze in the winter, so nobody should be offended when the U.S. imposed sanctions are ignored, as TURISH people cannot afford to heat their homes without purchasing IRAN’s natural gas. Furthermore, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued with his juggling acts of competing interests, as the first batch of U.S. military personnel for joint patrol activities in MANBIJ, SYRIA is now fully operational. Contemporaneously, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Chinese President Xi Jinping were discussing more trade in their local currencies, while avoiding the U.S. dollar. Simultaneously, TURKEY seems to be negotiating deals with GERMANY as GERMANY needs TURKEY’s cooperation in halting the flow of ISIS fighters, currently hiding in SYRIA, but who often use TURKISH territory to reach the E.U., while TURKEY needs GERMAN technology, investment and financing. Ironically, TURKEY now also seems to be having an affair with RUSSIA, as RUSSIA joined TURKEY in avoiding the U.S. dollar as the two countries formally opened talks for trade in their local currencies while President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has publicly said that the reign of the U.S. dollar as the global trade currency should come to an end.
However, in an unusual chain of events that triggered a change of fate, international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY continues, whereby the SAUDI ARABIAN officials had promised consequences for anyone, even a member of the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family, found responsible for the assassination. Thus, TURKEY has led a relentless campaign to hold SAUDI ARABIA accountable, as TURKISH authorities have allowed media leaks to the international press. Furthermore, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan formally denounced SAUDI ARABIA for initially trying to deny involvement in the killing, as after weeks of lying, SAUDI ARABIA finally admitted that Jamal Khashoggi was dead, such that as per TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, covering up this kind of savagery will hurt the conscience of all humanity. Furthermore, this week, detailed transcripts emerged whereby Jamal Khashoggi repeatedly told his killers, that he could not breathe, during his final moments in the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in TURKEY. It appears that Jamal Khashoggi recognised one of the men, General Maher Mutreb, whom he had worked with briefly at the embassy in LONDON advising Jamal Khashoggi that he was coming back with them to SAUDI ARABIA. However, Jamal Khashoggi thought he was safe in the SAUDI ARABIAN embassy, by eluding to people waiting outside and advising General Maher Mutreb that he cannot force him back to SAUDI ARABIA. Subsequently, the transcript used singular words to describe the noises, including “scream”, “gasping”, “saw” and “cutting”.
Nonetheless, in an unusual twist of fate, CIA Director Gina Haspel gave a classified briefing to leaders of the U.S. House of Representatives whereby the CIA has reportedly concluded that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) must have at least known about the plot to kill Jamal Khashoggi. Furthermore, CIA Director Gina Haspel obviously presented a solid case behind her conclusion that there is a high level of confidence that Crown Prince MBS was complicit in the murder of Jamal Khasoggi. Thus, CIA Director Gina Haspel has garnered extensive support for her conclusion from the likes of Senator Bob Menendez, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, who stated that his views have only been solidified. Furthermore, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham stated that, “You have to be wilfully blind not to come to the conclusion that this was orchestrated and organised by people under the command of MBS”. In addition, Nikki Haley, the U.S. outgoing U.N. ambassador, stated that Crown Prince MBS was responsible for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, as it was the Saudi government and thus Crown Prince MBS as its head, that were responsible.
IRAQ News
As a friendly reminder, there were two obvious potential outcomes from IRAQI political party negotiations with substantial regional and international consequences. That is, the first potential outcome was a coalition headed by Moqtada al-Sadr that would probably mean a diminishing U.S. presence in IRAQ combined with an IRAQI government that is independent of IRAN’s influence, while reintegrating an independent and sovereign IRAQ into the Arab world. Conversely, the second potential outcome was a coalition headed by the pro-IRANIAN Fatah Alliance representing the SHIITE militias, along with parties loyal to former Prime Ministers Haider al-Abadi and Nouri al-Maliki, as well as smaller groups such as the Kurdistan Coalition, that would result in an overtly pro-IRANIAN government. Thus, in spite of dramatic differences, the three parties that gained the most votes in IRAQ’s May 12, 2018 parliamentary elections agreed to work together to form a new IRAQI government. Thus, after the dust settled, Barham Salih was voted by parliament into the position of President with his first act naming Adil Abdul-Mahdi to be prime minister, who formed the new government during November’ 2018. Ironically, IRAQ’s prime minister-designate Adel Abdul Mahdi presented his new cabinet to the IRAQI parliament for approval, although he has no parliamentary block of his own to stand on, and is thus dependent on the blocks of cleric MUQTADA AL-SADR and pro-IRANIAN militia leader HADI AL-AMIRI for his position.
Furthermore, uncertainty appeared to be looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, while the traditional political parties remain strong, such that the new president and prime minister will have a difficult time translating recent political developments into concrete changes. However, it is important to note that for the first time ever, the IRAQI parliament voted freely for IRAQ’s next president, with Barham Salih winning by a landslide vote of 219 to 22 over his competitor, while in the past, the parliamentary vote served mainly as a rubber-stamp of election results. Furthermore, immediately after Barham Salih was sworn in as President, he designated Adil Abdal-Mehdi to become prime minister, who is the first prime minister not to come from the Islamic Dawa Party, which has dominated post-invasion IRAQI politics. Nonetheless, further complicating the situation in IRAQ is the U.S. re-imposing sanctions against IRAN as IRAQ finds itself caught in the crossfire between its key allies of IRAN and the U.S. such that IRAQ’s economy could suffer the worst economic collateral damage from the U.S. sanctions on IRAN. Ironically, as soon as the most recent round of U.S. sanctions hit IRAN, the IRAQI Prime Minister stated that IRAQ would reluctantly comply but one week later, reality hit IRAQ whereby many IRAQIS forced the IRAQI government to maintain trade relations with IRAN. Thus, IRAQI’s new Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi had no choice but to formally request that the U.S. provide certain exemptions to IRAQ on specific critical IRANIAN goods with an IRAQI delegation set to travel to Washington as soon as the U.S. counterparts are ready to meet.
Nonetheless, deadly protests continued to rage in IRAQ over the lack of basic services and government corruption as IRAQI security forces were bracing with a rise in violence that has resulted in more solidarity protests throughout IRAQ as activists look to create momentum in their protests against intermittent electricity availabilities, undrinkable water, unemployment and frustrations with the political system. Furthermore, tensions were once again high in IRAQ this week, as the U.S. and IRAN presence on IRAQI territory simmers in the distance, as U.S. airplanes fly overhead Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) who stand on guard for the first shot to be fired to unleash combat with their arch nemesis. It is important to note that the PMF is a group of mostly SHIITE militias backed by IRAN, which the U.S. regards as the biggest threat to security in IRAQ. Thus, the PMF has been deploying in growing numbers at the border, fearing hundreds of ISIS militants who fled IRAQ may try to cross back into IRAQI territory. Thus, the PMF has de facto control over large stretches of IRAQI borders, while its leaders are calling for a formal and permanent role in order to secure the border. Ironically, the PMF also sees the U.S. as a threat to IRAQI security, and vice versa, such that the U.S. & IRAN are keeping a close eye on each other, raising the risk of future confrontations. It is important to note that the PMF officially became part of Iraq’s security forces this year, after playing an important role in the war against ISIS. Thus, the PMF has concentrated their recent build-up around the town of AL-QAIM, which was the last ISIS controlled city in IRAQ to fall last year, such that the PMF control movement in and out of the town near the border with SYRIA, over a 240 km area. Nonetheless, IRAQI military commanders in units not allied with IRAN say U.S. air power was crucial to defeat ISIS in the three-year war against ISIS. Therefore, U.S. forces have kept their bases in place such that on the road to AL-QAIM, U.S. armoured vehicles will tend to pass by PMF pick-up trucks with masked IRANIAN fighters behind machine guns, albeit nobody dares to pull the trigger first, knowing full well that the first shot fired will trigger a domino effect from hell.
SYRIA News
As a friendly reminder, in recent months, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN allies retook a town, DERAA, that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war, that engulfed SYRIA for over seven years now, as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag, in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war. It is important to note that the SAA along with their RUSSIAN allies now continue to focus their attention on IDLIB where they have vowed to wipe out all terrorists. It is important to note that the SAA and RUSSIA have signalled that an all-out offensive to retake the last rebel-held province in SYRIA consisting of IDLIB is only a matter of time. Therefore, the SAA and RUSSIA have triggered rising fears over a major humanitarian crisis as it has become evident that IDLIB will eventually be subjected to an intense bombing campaign.
It is important to note that IDLIB is home to nearly three million people, consisting of around half of whom are rebels and civilians transferred from other areas such as ALEPPO, EASTERN GHOUTA and DERAA after they fell to SAA forces following heavy fighting. Furthermore, the situation on the ground is further complicated by the direct presence of TURKEY, which backs certain rebel groups in the area and operates as a guarantor country to ensure the de-escalation zone agreed upon with RUSSIA is respected. However, in recent months, TURKISH backed opposition groups in IDLIB have attempted to unify into a new coalition, with some 70,000 fighters pledging to fight against SAA forces but the terrorist group, Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the most dominant rebel force in IDLIB in control of about 60% of the province, has not joined the coalition. Thus, it was a positive development for TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to reach a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA to prevent an all-out attack on IDLIB, as TURKEY is worried that an attack on IDLIB will trigger a mass exodus of refugees fleeing towards the TURKISH border. However, in recent months, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which includes former AL-QAEDA terrorist fighters among its ranks, seems to be attempting to consolidate power in northern SYRIA with waves of arrests of civilians during the TURKEY and RUSSIAN brokered ceasefire.
Therefore, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave the HTS rebels inside the IDLIB buffer zone another warning to leave the designated RUSSIA and TURKEY designated demilitarized zone. Furthermore, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made it clear that if HTS rebels refuse to leave the designated demilitarized zone, TURKEY will allow the SAA and RUSSIAN Air Force to resume their operations against them in northwestern SYRIA. However, in recent months, two of the largest terrorist groups in IDLIB clashed consisting of HTS rebels and their allies from the Hurras Al-Deen (HAD) organization. That is, clashes between HTS and HAD occurred at the checkpoint of the northern bridge of the SARAQIB town, with both sides calling in reinforcements, amid fears among the citizens of the escalation of clashes. Thus, recently, the TURKISH backed National Liberation Front (NLF) were placed on high alert in the IDLIB province, after the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) began moving their troops to the front-lines near the demilitarized zone. It is important to note that Naji al-Musfata, the spokesman for the NLF, has publically declared that NLF forces are fully prepared for an imminent attack by the SAA. Hence, this week, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) launched a powerful assault against terrorist rebels in southern IDLIB and northern HAMA. That is, the SAA fired a number of surface-to-surface missiles towards the defenses of JAYSH AL-IZZA and their allies in the town of KAFR NABOUDEH (northern HAMA) and JARJANAZ (southern IDLIB). The SAA then expanded their assault to the southeastern countryside of IDLIB, where they targeted HTS positions at the towns of AL-TAMAN’AH, KHUWAYN, and SUKEEK.
Meanwhile, the tensions between IRAN and ISRAEL seem to have continued to escalate again after ISRAELI airstrikes targeted IRANIAN military infrastructure inside SYRIA, in recent months. Obviously, IRAN condemned the wave of ISRAELI air strikes in SYRIA and clearly stated that these attacks by ISRAEL represent a blatant violation of SYRIA’s sovereignty such that IRAN has backed SYRIA’s right to defend itself against ISRAEL. It is important to note that the strikes were the heaviest strikes carried out by ISRAEL on SYRIA in decades that came right after twenty rockets were fired at ISRAELI military positions in the occupied Golan Heights of SYRIA. It is no secret that the strikes hurt IRAN that has deployed hundreds of troops inside SYRIA as military advisers to the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) while thousands of IRANIAN militia armed, trained and financed by IRAN, have also been battling SYRIAN rebel forces alongside the SAA. ISRAEL stated that ISRAELI fighter jets struck almost IRAN’s entire military infrastructure inside Syria consisting of some 70 targets in ISRAELS biggest assault since SYRIA’s civil war commenced in 2011.
Subsequently, the tone escalated between ISRAEL and IRAN, as ISRAEL continues to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to be adamant that the IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, in recent months, IRANIAN forces did pull back from the Golan Heights that seems to be a step in the right direction. However, this week tensions seemed to have risen once again as IRANIAN’s were fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency which has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. The new sanctions target IRANIAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN’s auto sector although the toughest sanctions targeting oil exports have only taken effect recently. However, IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani clearly stated that IRAN would not let the enemy bring IRAN to its knees such that if the enemy thinks they will defeat IRAN, they will take their hope to the grave with them.
Hence, U.S. President, Donald Trump, warned that the U.S. is developing a new strategy for the war in SYRIA that would focus more heavily on pushing IRAN’s military and its proxy forces out of SYRIA. However, U.S. President, Donald Trump, then seemed to realize that he needed an ally in the Middle East and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY. Nonetheless, U.S. President, Donald Trump, seemed to have initially sided with the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty. Obviously, with the IRANIAN oil embargo plans that took effect on November 5, 2018, when sanctions kicked-in, success of the embargo depends on SAUDI ARABIA pumping extra oil to compensate for the anticipated shortfall.
Nonetheless, this week, detailed transcripts emerged whereby Jamal Khashoggi repeatedly told his killers, that he could not breathe, during his final moments in the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in TURKEY. It appears that Jamal Khashoggi recognised one of the men, General Maher Mutreb, whom he had worked with briefly at the embassy in LONDON advising Jamal Khashoggi that he was coming back with them to SAUDI ARABIA. However, Jamal Khashoggi thought he was safe in the SAUDI ARABIAN embassy, by eluding to people waiting outside and advising General Maher Mutreb that he cannot force him back to SAUDI ARABIA. Subsequently, the transcript used singular words to describe the noises, including “scream”, “gasping”, “saw” and “cutting”.
Nonetheless, in an unusual twist of fate, CIA Director Gina Haspel gave a classified briefing to leaders of the U.S. House of Representatives whereby the CIA has reportedly concluded that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) must have at least known about the plot to kill Jamal Khashoggi. Furthermore, CIA Director Gina Haspel obviously presented a solid case behind her conclusion that there is a high level of confidence that Crown Prince MBS was complicit in the murder of Jamal Khasoggi. Thus, CIA Director Gina Haspel has garnered extensive support for her conclusion from the likes of Senator Bob Menendez, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, who stated that his views have only been solidified. Furthermore, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham stated that, “You have to be wilfully blind not to come to the conclusion that this was orchestrated and organised by people under the command of MBS”. In addition, Nikki Haley, the U.S. outgoing U.N. ambassador, stated that Crown Prince MBS was responsible for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, as it was the Saudi government and thus Crown Prince MBS as its head, that were responsible.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
This week’s focus in TURKEY seemed to shift to the TURKISH struggling economy, largely attributable to a lack of confidence by foreign investors, due largely to TURKEY’s repressive crackdown measures on all opposition movements. In my opinion, over the last two plus years, TURKEY has been radically transformed with emergency measures used to consolidate authoritarian powers, silence opposition voices and take away basic human rights and civil liberties. However, the behaviours of TURKEY’s governing AKP seem to be taking their toll on the TURKISH economy, as turbulent politics have resulted in economic turmoil, whereby the sliding TURKISH Lira has set-off alarm bells across TURKEY, as businesses struggle to cope with the financial impacts of a declining TURKISH Lira. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blaming the rest of the world for waging an economic war against TURKEY, while most reputable economists would tend to agree that the TURKISH government has forced their central banks to follow counterproductive, if not destructive, economic policies, is a sure sign that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is living in a delusional reality.
In my opinion, the underlying problem is that TURKISH banks and companies borrowed a lot of U.S. dollars, as TURKISH foreign currency debt represents about 30% of TURKEY’s GDP, such that TURKEY is now struggling to pay down the debt as the TURKISH Lira is falling. In my opinion, TURKEY’s economy is struggling in large part due to the TURKISH Lira losing almost 40% of its value against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year, albeit recovering slightly since it hit its lows during October’ 2018. In my opinion, there are a slew of reasons dissuading investors from TURKEY, but at the end of the day, many investors continue to try to liquidate their TURKISH Lira given that it has been dropping fast since the beginning of the year. Thus, the solution from my point-of-view is quite obvious, that TURKEY needs to raise interest rates in order to counter its problems of high inflation and a declining TURKISH Lira, while its economy should be able to bear the brunt of higher interest rates, without significant drops in current production levels.
Thus, this week’s focus of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued to be on TURKEY’s fragile economy, that received another economic blow recently, when TURKEY’s growth forecasts for this year and next were dramatically reduced, triggering further drops in the value of the TURKISH Lira. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY seems to find itself in an awkward position, like a dog chasing its tail, as TURKEY has seen its currency plunge over 40% this year, over investor concerns about President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s influence over monetary policy and a horrible diplomatic separation from the U.S. In my opinion, the TURKISH economic turbulence has shaken global financial markets and created the potential for a banking crisis that could have a disastrous domino effect across the entire global financial markets. In my opinion, TURKEY’s banks face a potential barrage of bad debts as the TURKISH Lira sell-off has driven up the cost for companies to service their foreign currency denominated loans.
That is, TURKISH companies have been borrowing in U.S. Dollars and Euros for years, to take advantage of lower interest rates, but it appears that the private sector has accumulated over $145 billion in foreign currency denominated debt, maturing during the upcoming year. Nonetheless, Berat Albayrak, TURKEY’s finance minister stated that TURKEY does not foresee a big risk on the TURKISH economy and banking system as the TURKISH economy has strong fundamentals. Hence, although THE ROCK kindly and politely offered his consulting services to Berat Albayrak to help TURKEY straighten out their economic and geopolitical mess, Berat Albayrak seems to be heading in the right direction as TURKEY continued to focus on the TURKISH economy, as TURKEY’s current account balance posted a surplus in October for the third consecutive month in a row, while TURKEY’s economy grew by 1.6% and calendar adjusted Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 2.1% in the third quarter of 2018 compared with the same period of last year. Thus, in my opinion, although the economic situation is improving in TURKEY, the TURKISH central banks will most probably hold off from cutting interest rates for the time being, in order to avoid another currency crisis. In my opinion, TURKEY’s central bank has had a difficult year, due to concerns about its political independence that triggered one of the worst dumping of the TURKISH Lira in years as annual inflation rose to more than 25% in October of 2018, such that the TURKISH central bank is reluctant to reduce interests rates prematurely. Thus, I believe that the interest rate increases in September of 2018 alleviated investor worries, helping to increase the depressed currency, which had lost more than half of its value against the U.S. dollar during its August’ 2018 lows. In my opinion, although painful, the 24% interest rate level set by the TURKISH central bank triggered the necessary economic adjustment to help turnaround the TURKISH economy, such that it would be best to maintain the 24% interest rate, at least to the end of 2018. Furthermore, TURKEY needs to focus on maintaining the current three consecutive months of surplus as for TURKEY to create positive momentum in its ailing economy it is critical that the value of the goods and services the country exports exceeds that of its imports.
In my opinion, Berat Albayrak sounds like President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which is not surprising as he is his son-in-law such that Berat Albayrak seems to be significantly influenced by the President and seems to be extremely reluctant to go against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s firm belief in the need to maintain interest rates stable at around 17%. However, in my opinion, TURKEY faces the risk of a rapid slowdown in the TURKISH economy that could potentially culminate in a difficult recession unless TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, takes urgent steps to rebalance the TURKISH economy while fuelling investor confidence. In my opinion, TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, acted appropriately, by declaring war on soaring inflation and calling on TURKEY’s businesses to cut prices by 10% to counter runaway inflation, that has driven up the price of everything from food to fuel, and sent inflation to 25% last month, its highest in 15 years. However, in my opinion, TURKISH Finance Minister Berat Albayrak is over optimistic, as he still foresees a better and stronger economic fiscal year during 2019, while ignoring the fact that the inflation rate that hit a high of 25.2%, is far above the TURKISH central bank’s target rate of 5% for core inflation, after stripping out volatile factors such as energy and food prices. Nonetheless, in my opinion, TURKEY still seems to be an attractive country for long-term investors regardless of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) lowering TURKISH growth forecasts to negative 0.4%, in recent months, after the OECD had initially predicted in August that Turkey would grow by 0.5%in 2019. However, in my opinion, the OECD hit the nail on the head that regaining business, household and investor confidence in monetary and fiscal policies will be crucial for TURKEY to reverse the anticipated negative growth.
In my opinion, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s unorthodox brand of economics whereby inflation should not be contained by raising interest rates or other traditional measures, but rather by employing supply-side measures to reduce costs, may very well work for medium, large and government controlled organizations. Therefore, in a country such as TURKEY that resembles a military controlled state, forcing Turkish companies to lower prices by 10%, accompanied by policing of businesses, shops and supermarkets to verify prices can certainly be implemented. However, there will obviously be collateral damage with reduced margins by businesses and particularly retailers, such that TURKEY will likely have to also force the banks to restructure loans and defer payment schedules. Thus, in my opinion, investors are scared by soaring inflation, widening operating deficits and a declining TURKISH Lira that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has immediately stabilized by recently releasing U.S. Pastor Andrew Brunson. Furthermore, in my opinion TURKEY’s position as outlined by TURKEY’s science and industry minister, Mustafa Varank, is the best strategic option for TURKEY, whereby while global trade wars loom, TURKEY is seeking new cooperation in which both sides benefit. In my opinion, this week’s announcement that TURKEY’s economy is on track to end this year with two consecutive quarters of contraction, or a technical recession, indicates that the governing AKP will be going into the March elections under tight economic policies, such that damages to the TURKISH economy, poses the greatest risk for the governing AKP. That is, the ailing TURKISH economy is a major issue for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who built his political success on supercharging TURKISH economic growth and prosperity that will now be put to the electoral test. Thus, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will once again try to blame the ailing TURKISH economy on outside foreign powers, such that he will probably return to his previous stance of comparing Jews to bacteria, and referring to the Jews as The Mastermind conspiracy preventing TURKEY from taking their rightful place as a world superpower.
Nonetheless, it seems that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be forced to turn to the E.U., although TURKEY’s bid for E.U. membership has all but expired, as TURKEY will seem to be forced to return to GERMANY to finance TURKISH short-tern needs. However, in my opinion, any E.U. aid is unlikely to be enough while the pledge by QATAR to invest $ 15 billion during the upcoming year seems to have had very little favourable impact on the TURKISH Lira. In my opinion, as inflation rates rise, the TURKISH central bank will eventually be forced to raise interest rates to halt the TURKISH Lira’s free-fall, albeit any interest rate hike may be too little and too late. Thus, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s belief that interest rates are the mother and father of all evil, as a cause of inflation, will now likely result in TURKEY being forced to go to the IMF for bail-out financing although TURKEY continues to rule out this option on the basis that IMF financing represents an unacceptable surrender of TURKISH sovereignty.
In my opinion, I was not surprised to see TURKEY focus its attention on IDLIB and continue to warn the SYRIAN regime, RUSSIA and IRAN, that an all-out military offensive on IDLIB could lead to a disastrous outcome for TURKEY, by triggering a new wave of refugees heading towards the TURKISH borders. In my opinion, TURKEY has already sheltered 3.5 million SYRIANS such that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is under significant domestic pressure to not take in any more refugees. Nonetheless, RUSSIA’s worries about AL-QAEDA linked terrorist groups based in IDLIB are legitimate but a full-scale military attack is not the way to deal with this situation as it will certainly put the lives of all innocent civilians at risk and create a humanitarian crisis. Thus, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan needs to receive full credit for being able to negotiate a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA, in recent months, to spare IDLIB from disastrous consequences for the time being. In my opinion, the large quantities of weapons entering SYRIA, in recent months, indicated that TURKEY would be providing complete TURKISH military support for a long drawn-out battle over IDLIB, if necessary. Thus, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin once again made the right strategic decision to hold back the SAA and IRANIANS from engaging in a full fledge military assault on IDLIB that in my opinion will have disastrous consequences for all parties. However, in my opinion the withdrawal of all the so-called radical fighters from the area by October 15, that includes hardline Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is dominated by a rebel faction previously linked to al-Qaeda, were obviously not yet persuaded to leave IDLIB peacefully.
Therefore, in my opinion, actions in recent months by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to consolidate power in northern SYRIA with waves of arrests of civilians was irresponsible and on the verge of insane. Thus, in my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was forced to warn the HTS rebels again to leave the RUSSIA and TURKEY designated demilitarized zone. Furthermore, in my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made the right strategic decision by warning HTS rebels that if they refuse to leave the designated demilitarized zone, TURKEY will allow the SAA and RUSSIAN Air Force to resume their operations against them in SYRIA. In regards to concerns in recent months, as two of the largest terrorist groups in IDLIB clashed consisting of HTS rebels and their allies from the Hurras Al-Deen (HAD) organization, I am surprised to see that HAD got the upper hand to control the checkpoint from HTS, for which the clashes took place and are still on-going.
However, given that these clashes represent infighting as both of these terrorist groups have fought together against the SAA, prior to this firefight, I would let them go at each other. In my opinion, I was not surprised to see, in recent months, that the TURKISH backed National Liberation Front (NLF) was placed on high alert in the IDLIB province after the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) began moving their troops to the front-lines near the demilitarized zone. Thus, this week, I was not surprised to see the SAA launch a powerful assault against terrorist rebels in southern IDLIB and northern HAMA. However, in my opinion, SYRIA, IRAN, RUSSIA and TURKEY have not yet extended the ten-week truce that expired in IDLIB, such that the SAA has been continuously bombing the countryside areas of IDLIB and HAMA, whereby there have been numerous reported massacres, and dozens of people killed at the hands of the SAA. In my opinion, it is extremely unfortunate that the most frequent victims are women and children, as the number of bombings and assassinations has increased, while about four million people are still living in dangerous conditions, such that a full-scale military attack by the SAA would likely result in calamities. In my opinion, northern SYRIA has become a breeding ground for terrorist organizations, which enjoy widespread support, such that the only way to move forward with the SYRIAN ceasefire plan is to disarm the terrorist groups to insure that a new ISIS does not emerge. Therefore, the only viable solution to the SYRIAN crisis would be disarmament of the terrorists in exchange for amnesty in order to prevent more massacres.
Meanwhile, I was not surprised to see President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stating that TURKEY would continue to buy natural gas from IRAN, in line with its long-term supply contracts, despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to punish countries doing business with IRAN. In my opinion, TURKEY has made it clear that the U.S. imposed sanctions will be ignored, as TURISH people cannot afford to heat their homes without purchasing IRAN’s natural gas, such that economic necessities will take precedence over politics. In regards to TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued with his juggling acts of competing interests as the first batch of U.S. military personnel are now fully active on joint patrol activities in MANBIJ, SYRIA, this is definitely a step in the right direction for peace in the KURDISTAN region of SYRIA. In regards to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussing more trade in their local currencies, while avoiding the U.S. dollar, it is obvious that both TURKEY and CHINA are furious at recent imposed U.S. tariffs such that they will engage in transactions in domestic currencies in an attempt to weaken the demand for U.S. Dollars. In regards to GERMANY needing TURKEY’s cooperation in halting the flow of ISIS fighters, currently hiding in SYRIA, while TURKEY needing GERMAN technology, investment and financing, TURKEY is leveraging GERMANY perfectly to fuel its economic needs. In regards to TURKEY having an affair with RUSSIA, as RUSSIA joined TURKEY in avoiding the U.S. dollar, with the goal that the reign of the U.S. dollar as the global trade currency come to an end, I am not surprised to see RUSSIA pushing against the U.S. Dollar, as RUSSIA believes that a weakened demand for the U.S. Dollar will trigger an increased demand for the RUSSIAN Ruble and TURKISH Lira.
In my opinion, the international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY has still not been resolved. Furthermore, consequences for anyone, even a member of the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family, found responsible for the assassination, must be enforced to the fullest extent of the law as the audio recordings of Jamal Khashoggi being assaulted, tortured, killed and dismembered inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate, are disturbing and down right psychopathic in nature. Thus, TURKEY led a relentless campaign to hold SAUDI ARABIA accountable, as TURKISH authorities have allowed media leaks to the international press. Thus, in my opinion, it was not surprising this week to see, gruesome details emerge from TURKEY’s foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, stating that slain dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi was killed in a disgusting seven-minute long attack inside the SAUDI ARABIAN embassy in ISTANBUL, TURKEY, in a deliberate murder, that he listened too in its entirety. In my opinion, the doctor instructing the hit men to listen to music, as he dismembered Jamal Khashoggi’s body, while he seemed to be enjoying it, was simply disgusting. In my opinion, the remains of Jamal Khashoggi that remain undiscovered were most probably dissolved in acid to insure that it will never be found. Hence, in my opinion, the Jamal Khashoggi scandal will shortly come to an end, with the Crown Prince Mohammed Ben Salmen (MBS) and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family walking away absolved, as TURKEY has not produced adequate substantive evidence to pin them with the crime, other than an abundance of circumstantial evidence that they ordered the hit as defacto rulers of SAUDI ARABIA. Hence, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA has appropriately indicted 11 suspects in the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, with five facing the death penalty, on the basis of adequate substantive evidence, while another 10 were held in connection to the death, on the basis of adequate circumstantial evidence, as authorities gather substantive evidence to corroborate suspicions, in conformance with international laws.
Furthermore, in my opinion, detailed transcripts emerging whereby Jamal Khashoggi repeatedly told his killers, that he could not breathe, during his final moments in the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in TURKEY are quite shocking and disturbing. However, in my opinion, Jamal Khashoggi thought he was safe in the SAUDI ARABIAN embassy, by eluding to people waiting outside and advising General Maher Mutreb that he cannot force him back to SAUDI ARABIA. Thus, Jamal Khashoggi obviously never thought that his refusal to return to SAUDI ARABIA would result with a quick end to his life as the final transcript details identify noises, including “scream”, “gasping”, “saw” and “cutting”. Thus, in my opinion, CIA Director Gina Haspel has obviously presented a solid case behind her conclusion that there is a high level of confidence that Crown Prince MBS was complicit in the murder of Jamal Khasoggi. Therefore, in my opinion, it is not surprising that CIA Director Gina Haspel has garnered extensive support for her conclusion from important players like top Democrat Senator Bob Menendez, top Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and Nikki Haley, the U.S. outgoing U.N. ambassador, that are all of the opinion that you have to be wilfully blind not to come to the conclusion that this was orchestrated and organised by people under the command of MBS. However, in my opinion U.S. President Donald Trump has made the right decision to stick with Crown Price MBS on the basis that there is no substantive evidence to link him to the crime.
In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump hit the nail on the head when he clearly stated that Crown Prince MBS has vehemently denied involvement in the murder of Jamal Khasoggi such that the U.S. cannot condemn the leader of a good ally on the basis of circumstantial evidence. In my opinion, given that Crown Prince MBS vehemently denies involvement in the murder, the rule of international law must apply of innocent until proven guilt by a court of law based on substantive evidence. Therefore, although CIA Director Gina Haspel has obviously presented a solid case with support garnered from important players, they have forgotten the risks associated with usage of overwhelming circumstantial evidence to reach a conclusion, which is that they have been forced to assume. As a friendly reminder, the risk associate with ASSUME is that one can make an ASS out of U and ME, as when dealing with influential figures such as the Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family, one cannot ASSUME as the basis to prosecute. However, as highlighted by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the 17 members of the SAUDI ARABIAN hit squad that were accessory to the Jamal Khasoggi murder have been sanctioned accordingly. Thus, in my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump and his team have set the right tone at the top, that the U.S. will not sanction its allies based on gossip, rumours and hearsay, as such a situation allows for leeway, such that the logical conclusion is to go the benefit of the doubt way.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives, to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ has obtained the necessary political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ to avert a new set of extremists in IRAQ. That is, given that the SUNNIS were brought back into the IRAQI political system, that should be the end of a significant ISIS uprising, as if the SUNNIS are not satisfied with their political voice, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
As a friendly reminder, either a coalition under Moqtada al-Sadr was expected to emerge or a pro-IRANIAN coalition under the Fatah Alliance was expected to emerge such that either way, it seemed that the U.S. presence in IRAQ would likely diminish over time. Ironically, after months of negotiations, Barham Salih was voted by parliament into the position of President with his first act naming Adil Abdul-Mahdi to be prime minister, who formed his government during November’ 2018. Thus, it seems that the results of the elections were bypassed for the benefit of stability, as this new duo represents the old IRAQI regime, as both have been active in IRAQI politics since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003. That is, President Barham Salih was previously deputy prime minister of IRAQ and Prime Minister of IRAQI Kurdistan while Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi was formerly vice president of IRAQ and more recently oil minister. Thus, in my opinion, the election of President Barham Salih, a KURD, and his nomination of Adil Abdul-Mahdi to be prime minister, a Shiite, seems to have broken months of political deadlock in IRAQ after an inconclusive May election result that everybody seems to have agreed to scrap. Nonetheless, with IRAQ’s prime minister-designate Adel Abdul Mahdi presenting his new cabinet to the IRAQI parliament for approval, although he has no parliamentary block of his own to stand on, and is thus dependent on the blocks of cleric MUQTADA AL-SADR and pro-IRANIAN militia leader HADI AL-AMIRI for his position, Adel Abdul Mahdi will most likely not be able to control IRAQI corruption or challenge existing underlying militia influences in IRAQ.
In regards to recent uncertainty looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, the new president and prime minister will have a difficult time translating recent political developments into concrete changes. Nonetheless, it is important to note that for the first time ever, the IRAQI parliament voted freely for IRAQ’s next president, with Barham Salih winning by a landslide vote of 219 to 22 over his competitor, representing a step in the right direction, given that Barham Salih acclaimed a clear majority. Thus, in my opinion, this vote marks a departure from last summer’s election shake-up, with some two-thirds of the members of IRAQI parliament now being new to the job, as growing protest movements exposed IRAQI citizen disillusionment with the political process, while increasing pressure on the IRAQI parliament for significant change. Nonetheless, in my opinion, poor governance, lack of public infrastructure and high levels of corruption, particularly in poor SUNNI areas, is helping to fuel ISIS’s objectives of a comeback after its crushing defeat. Unfortunately for IRAQ, the U.S. sanctions on IRAN seem to be arriving at the worst possible time, as the embargo on its IRANIAN neighbour could hit jobs in IRAQ and cut off a crucial source of relatively cheap imports into IRAQ.
In my opinion, with 80% of the products on the market in IRAQ being IRANIAN made, if the border closes, it will be an economic crisis for IRAQ. Thus, I was not surprised to see many IRAQIS pushing the IRAQI government to maintain trade relations with IRAN because IRAQ, which shares around 1,450 kilometers of border with IRAN, will be badly hurt by the IRANIAN sanctions. In my opinion, IRAQ relies on IRAN for gas supplies, electricity, water and food such that the U.S. has placed IRAQ in a loser position, as by attempting to cut-off the head of IRAN, the U.S. cut-off the waist of IRAQ, such that although IRAN suffers most without its head, IRAQ is unable to reproduce without its waist. In my opinion, IRAQ will certainly experience shortages of key products if IRAQ complies with all of the U.S. sanctions that could lead to political turmoil at a critical crossroads period in IRAQI politics. Therefore, I was not surprised to see Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi, clearly state that IRAQ has presented the U.S. with a framework, from which the IRAQI delegation will go to the U.S. to negotiate, with a clear vision of what IRAQ really needs, which includes IRANIAN natural gas, electricity and other critical trade related products that fuel the IRAQI economy.
Nonetheless, I was not surprised to see the deadly protests continuing to rage in IRAQ over the lack of basic services and government corruption as IRAQI security forces were bracing for new rounds of violent protests. In my opinion, intermittent electricity availabilities, undrinkable water, unemployment and frustrations with the political system will certainly result in more IRAQI protests. In my opinion, it is easier said than done for IRAQI security forces to protect and facilitate peaceful demonstrations when frustrated IRAQI populace hurl stones and Molotov cocktails at local IRAQI government buildings and IRAQI security forces. Furthermore, I was not surprised to see tensions once again high in IRAQ this week as the U.S. and IRAN presence on IRAQI territory simmers in the distance, as U.S. airplanes fly overhead Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) who stand on guard for the first shot to be fired to unleash combat with their arch nemesis. Ironically, the PMF also sees the U.S. as a threat to IRAQI security, and vice versa, such that the U.S. & IRAN are keeping a close eye on each other, raising the risk of future confrontations. Therefore, in my opinion, nobody dares to pull the trigger first, knowing full well that the first shot fired will trigger a domino effect from hell. However, in my opinion, AL-QAIM is a hot spot that risks a clash as the build-up of forces has increased to the point that all it takes is one mistake, by either side, for there to be a clash, even if both sides wish to avoid it. In my opinion, nearly every major IRANIAN backed SHIITE militia group has forces deployed near AL-QAIM, such that there is always a chance that a battle breaks out, although the Americans clearly do not have the U.S. forces stationed on the ground in IRAQ to handle a full fledge conflict. In my opinion, with the PMF estimated to have a total of about 150,000 fighters on the ground in IRAQ, the U.S. military is far outnumbered with a force of approximately 1,500, such that the U.S. would be forced to resort to a nasty air bombing campaign, that would most certainly turn the PMF mentally insane.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN ally recently retook a town, DERAA that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war, as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war. Thus, in my opinion, the shift now in focus of the SAA campaign to IDLIB was expected, as it is unacceptable that terrorists, particularly the AL-NUSRA FRONT, are using the de-escalation area of IDLIB to attack the SYRIAN army and to also attack the RUSSIAN military bases in the area by utilizing drones. However, in my opinion, TURKISH backed opposition groups in IDLIB that have attempted to unify into a new coalition, with some 70,000 fighters pledging to fight against SAA forces without the terrorist group, Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the most dominant rebel force in IDLIB in control of about 60% of the province, will not be able to indefinitely withstand the impending SAA and RUSSIAN military onslaught. Furthermore, in my opinion, a major military operation in IDLIB could pose a particularly threatening humanitarian crisis because there is no opposition held territory remaining in SYRIA, where people could be evacuated to, such that as many as 2.5 million SYRIANS could try to flee to the closed TURKISH border, creating a new refugee crisis of catastrophic proportions. Hence, in my opinion, although RUSSIA’s worries about AL-QAEDA linked terrorist groups based in IDLIB are legitimate, a full-scale military attack is not the way to deal with this situation as it will certainly put the lives of all innocent civilians at risk and create a humanitarian crisis. Thus, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan needs to receive full credit for being able to negotiate a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA to spare IDLIB from disastrous consequences for the time being. In my opinion, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin is by far the best negotiator currently in the region, who always seems to be able to remain cool, calm and collected, as he once again made the right strategic decision to hold back the SAA and IRANIANS from engaging in a full fledge military assault on IDLIB that in my opinion will have disastrous consequences for all parties.
However, in my opinion, the withdrawal of all the so-called radical fighters from the area by October 15, that includes hardline Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is dominated by a rebel faction previously linked to al-Qaeda, were obviously not yet persuaded to leave IDLIB peacefully to no surprise. Therefore, in my opinion, actions in recent months by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to consolidate power in northern SYRIA with waves of arrests of civilians was irresponsible and on the verge of insane. Thus, in my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was forced to give the HTS rebels another warning to leave the designated RUSSIA and TURKEY designated demilitarized zone. Furthermore, in my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made the right strategic decision by warning HTS rebels that if they refuse to leave the designated demilitarized zone, TURKEY will allow the SAA and RUSSIAN Air Force to resume their operations against them in SYRIA. In regards to concerns in recent months, as two of the largest terrorist groups in IDLIB clashed consisting of HTS rebels and their allies from the Hurras Al-Deen (HAD) organization, I am surprised to see that HAD got the upper hand to control the checkpoint from HTS, for which the clashes took place and are still on-going. However, given that these clashes represent infighting as both of these terrorist groups have fought together against the SAA, prior to this firefight, I would let them go at each other. In my opinion, I was not surprised to see recently, that the TURKISH backed National Liberation Front (NLF) had been placed on high alert in the IDLIB province after the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) began moving their troops to the front-lines near the demilitarized zone. Thus, this week, I was not surprised to see the SAA launch a powerful assault against terrorist rebels in southern IDLIB and northern HAMA. However, in my opinion, SYRIA, IRAN, RUSSIA and TURKEY have not yet extended the ten-week truce that expired in IDLIB, such that the SAA has been continuously bombing the countryside areas of IDLIB and HAMA, whereby there have been numerous reported massacres, and dozens of people killed at the hands of the SAA. In my opinion, it is extremely unfortunate that the most frequent victims are women and children, as the number of bombings and assassinations has increased, while about four million people are still living in dangerous conditions, such that a full-scale military attack by the SAA would likely result in calamities. In my opinion, northern SYRIA has become a breeding ground for terrorist organizations, which enjoy widespread support, such that the only way to move forward with the SYRIAN ceasefire plan is to disarm the terrorist groups to insure that a new ISIS does not emerge. Therefore, the only viable solution to the SYRIAN crisis would be disarmament of the terrorists in exchange for amnesty in order to prevent more massacres.
Meanwhile, in regards to escalation of tensions in recent months between ISRAEL and IRAN, I am not surprised to see ISRAEL continuing to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. In my opinion, ISRAEL will not back down from its position that IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, in recent months, IRANIAN forces have pulled back from the Golan Heights that should be welcomed as a positive development, although ISRAEL clearly stated that such a pull back is insufficient, with no compromises or concessions from ISRAEL’s position of a complete withdrawal being necessary. In my opinion, tensions have obviously risen once again since IRANIAN’s were fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency that has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. The recent sanctions that target IRANIAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN’s auto sector that took effect seem to reflect the U.S. belief that IRAN will eventually surrender via the pressure tactics of sanctions. However, in my opinion IRAN’s pride runs through the veins of a majority of IRANIANS who would prefer to eat sand and drink sewage water before conceding to U.S. pressure tactics via sanctions.
Hence, in recent months, I was not surprised to see IRAN’s nuclear chief, Ali Akbar Salehi, warn that IRAN stands ready to build advanced centrifuges and further enrich uranium as part of a restart of its nuclear program. Furthermore, I was not surprised to see ISRAELI Intelligence Minister Yisrael Katz specify that if IRAN presses forward with its nuclear program, IRAN will face a direct threat from the U.S. and its allies. In my opinion, the U.S. withdrawal from the IRAN nuclear deal has already badly shaken IRAN’s economy, crashing its currency, the IRANAN Rial, such that IRAN will have to choose to either come back to the negotiating table with the U.S. or watch its IRANIAN economy suffer from re-imposed U.S. sanctions. Thus, I was not surprised at U.S. President, Donald Trump warning that the U.S. is developing a new strategy for the war in SYRIA that would focus more heavily on pushing IRAN’s military and its proxy forces out of SYRIA. In my opinion, the new U.S. strategy would probably not involve the U.S. military directly targeting and killing IRANIAN soldiers or IRANIAN proxies, given that the U.S. military only has the right of self-defence authorization in SYRIA, and thus should only strike IRANIAN targets if the U.S. feels threatened. In my opinion, the U.S. plan will likely focus on political and diplomatic efforts to force IRAN out of SYRIA by squeezing SYRIA financially. That is, the U.S. will likely withhold reconstruction aid from areas where IRANIAN and RUSSIAN forces are present and also impose sanctions on RUSSIAN and IRANIAN companies working on reconstruction in SYRIA. Ironically, IRAN seems to be heading in the direction of weathering the storm created by the crippling U.S. sanctions on IRAN’s oil industry that came back into full force during November’ 2018. Therefore, IRAN’s strategy seems to be heading in the direction of maintaining a status-quo arrangement until the fate of U.S. President Donald Trump becomes clearer in terms of whether he will ultimately be elected to serve a second term in 2020.
However, U.S. President, Donald Trump, then seemed to realize that he needed an ally in the Middle East and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY. Nonetheless, I am not surprised that U.S. President, Donald Trump, seems to have sided with the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by initially speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty. Furthermore, I was not surprised that U.S. President, Donald Trump did not hide from the U.S. realities that he does not want the U.S. lucrative business relationships with SAUDI ARABIA to change. However, it was not surprising this week to see, gruesome details emerge from TURKEY’s foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, stating that slain dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi was killed in a disgusting seven-minute long attack inside the SAUDI ARABIAN embassy in ISTANBUL, TURKEY, in a deliberate murder, that he listened too in its entirety. In my opinion, the doctor instructing the hit men to listen to music, as he dismembered Jamal Khashoggi’s body, while he seemed to be enjoying it, was simply disgusting. In my opinion, the remains of Jamal Khashoggi that remain undiscovered were most probably dissolved in acid to insure that it will never be found. Hence, in my opinion, the Jamal Khashoggi scandal will shortly come to an end, with the Crown Prince Mohammed Ben Salmen (MBS) and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family walking away absolved, as TURKEY has not produced adequate substantive evidence to pin them with the crime, other than an abundance of circumstantial evidence that they ordered the hit as defacto rulers of SAUDI ARABIA. Hence, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA has appropriately indicted 11 suspects in the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, with five facing the death penalty, on the basis of adequate substantive evidence, while another 10 were held in connection to the death, on the basis of adequate circumstantial evidence, as authorities gather substantive evidence to corroborate suspicions, in conformance with international laws.
Furthermore, in my opinion, detailed transcripts emerging whereby Jamal Khashoggi repeatedly told his killers, that he could not breathe, during his final moments in the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in TURKEY are quite shocking and disturbing. However, in my opinion, Jamal Khashoggi thought he was safe in the SAUDI ARABIAN embassy, by eluding to people waiting outside and advising General Maher Mutreb that he cannot force him back to SAUDI ARABIA. Thus, Jamal Khashoggi obviously never thought that his refusal to return to SAUDI ARABIA would result with a quick end to his life as the final transcript details identify noises, including “scream”, “gasping”, “saw” and “cutting”. Thus, in my opinion, CIA Director Gina Haspel has obviously presented a solid case behind her conclusion that there is a high level of confidence that Crown Prince MBS was complicit in the murder of Jamal Khasoggi. Therefore, in my opinion, it is not surprising that CIA Director Gina Haspel has garnered extensive support for her conclusion from important players like top Democrat Senator Bob Menendez, top Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and Nikki Haley, the U.S. outgoing U.N. ambassador, that are all of the opinion that you have to be wilfully blind not to come to the conclusion that this was orchestrated and organised by people under the command of MBS. However, in my opinion U.S. President Donald Trump has made the right decision to stick with Crown Price MBS on the basis that there is no substantive evidence to link him to the crime.
In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump hit the nail on the head when he clearly stated that Crown Prince MBS has vehemently denied involvement in the murder of Jamal Khasoggi such that the U.S. cannot condemn the leader of a good ally on the basis of circumstantial evidence. In my opinion, given that Crown Prince MBS vehemently denies involvement in the murder, the rule of international law must apply of innocent until proven guilt by a court of law based on substantive evidence. Therefore, although CIA Director Gina Haspel has obviously presented a solid case with support garnered from important players, they have forgotten the risks associated with usage of overwhelming circumstantial evidence to reach a conclusion, which is that they have been forced to assume. As a friendly reminder, the risk associate with ASSUME is that one can make an ASS out of U and ME, as when dealing with influential figures such as the Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family, one cannot ASSUME as the basis to prosecute. However, as highlighted by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the 17 members of the SAUDI ARABIAN hit squad that were accessory to the Jamal Khasoggi murder have been sanctioned accordingly. Thus, in my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump and his team have set the right tone at the top, that the U.S. will not sanction its allies based on gossip, rumours and hearsay, as such a situation allows for leeway, such that the logical conclusion is to go the benefit of the doubt way.
In my opinion, the current situation in the Middle East depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War that would likely be triggered by a direct ISRAEL and IRAN conflict, such that all leaders across the globe must avoid the temptation to look away but rather should increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, minimize civilian casualties, prevent the further use of chemical weapons and alleviate the humanitarian crisis from a civil war spiralling out of control with no end in sight, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the Middle East. That being said, the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while subsequently being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as detailed transcripts emerged whereby Jamal Khashoggi repeatedly told his killers, that he could not breathe, during his final moments, which are quite shocking and disturbing. Thus, Jamal Khashoggi obviously never thought that his refusal to return to SAUDI ARABIA would result with a quick end to his life as the final transcript details identify noises, including “scream”, “gasping”, “saw” and “cutting”. Thus, in my opinion, CIA Director Gina Haspel has obviously presented a solid case behind her conclusion that there is a high level of confidence that Crown Prince MBS was complicit in the murder of Jamal Khasoggi. Therefore, in my opinion, it is not surprising that CIA Director Gina Haspel has garnered extensive support for her conclusion from important players like top Democrat Senator Bob Menendez, top Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and Nikki Haley, the U.S. outgoing U.N. ambassador, that are all of the opinion that you have to be wilfully blind not to come to the conclusion that this was orchestrated and organised by people under the command of MBS. However, in my opinion U.S. President Donald Trump has made the right decision to stick with Crown Price MBS on the basis that there is no substantive evidence to link him to the crime.
In my opinion, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, although ISIS was literally disappearing from the face of the map in SYRIA, new showdowns between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) only serves to fuel the re-emergence of ISIS as a dangerous player in SYRIA. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS. Thus, in my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and utter madness.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 329” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as detailed transcripts emerged whereby Jamal Khashoggi repeatedly told his killers, that he could not breathe, during his final moments, which are quite shocking and disturbing, hence Jamal Khashoggi obviously never thought that his refusal to return to SAUDI ARABIA, would result with a quick end to his life, as the final transcript details identify noises, including “scream”, “gasping”, “saw” and “cutting”, for CIA Director Gina Haspel to obviously present a solid case behind her conclusion, that there is a high level of confidence that Crown Prince MBS was complicit in the murder, garnering extensive support from important U.S. politicians, albeit U.S. President Donald Trump made the right decision to stick with Crown Price MBS, on the basis that there is no substantive evidence to link him to the crime, as the risk associated with ASSUME, is that one can make an ASS out of U and ME, as when dealing with influential figures such as the Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family, one cannot ASSUME as the basis to prosecute, such that U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo focused on 17 members of SAUDI ARABIAN hit squad that were sanctioned accordingly, for U.S. President Donald Trump to set the right tone at the top, that the U.S. will not sanction its allies based on gossip, rumours and hearsay, as such a situation allows for leeway, such that the logical conclusion is to go the benefit of the doubt way.
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