In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 302” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while focusing on the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby ISRAEL blames SYRIA directly for allowing IRANIAN troops to become entrenched within SYRIA and in turn now posing a threat to ISRAEL, as although ISRAEL chose not to intervene while SYRIA was engulfed in one of the bloodiest and most horrific civil wars of human history, ISRAEL will not accept an IRANIAN entrenchment in SYRIA like the HEZBOLLAH entrenchment in LEBANON, while ISRAEL also holds IRAN responsible for fuelling recent violence on the GAZA border that has seen over 100 PALESTINIANS killed amid protests against ISRAEL, while ISRAEL continues to hold its hardline position that using non-lethal weapons to disperse PALESTINIAN protestors does not work as these are violent protests, for it to be evident that both ISRAEL and IRAN have such deep rooted psychological issues of hate, disrespect and contempt for each other such that it would be best for the world at large for the IRANIAN forces to withdraw from SYRIA as the SYRIAN soil is unable to absorb any more blood while an ISRAELI and IRANIAN conflict would most certainly trigger another blood bath.
TURKEY News
As a friendly reminder, TURKEY has been on the defense ever since an internal military “Coup D’État” failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP focused their attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say that the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants.
During the week ending on Sunday, June 10, 2018, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures although TURKEY’s crushing of the free press, destruction of the freedom of speech and restrictions to the right to peaceful demonstrations seems to be punishing the TURKISH economy as high inflation in TURKEY and a surge in foreign borrowing by TURKISH banks could plunge TURKEY into an economic crisis during 2018. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKISH forces and their Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel allies continued to celebrate the capture of AFRIN as the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) did not intervene so that TURKEY was in essence given the informal approval to crush the SYRIAN KURDISH region. However, at least 150,000 people have been displaced in AFRIN with estimates of the total number of civilian deaths at over 200 since TURKEY began its aggression in January of 2018 of the KURDISH region on the border between SYRIA and TURKEY under TURKEY’s Operation Olive Branch.
Meanwhile this week, the focus in TURKEY seemed to once again be the upcoming elections on June 24, 2018 as the most pivotal election in modern TURKISH history will result in the abolition of the prime minister’s role and thus President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could very well fulfill his dreams by obtaining supreme political power while overturning almost a century of parliamentary rule. Therefore, the only question right now seems to be whether any opposition candidate can wage a credible challenge to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Thus, TURKEY’s main opposition parties created a broad electoral alliance before general elections in June that could pose a significant challenge to the dominance of the governing AKP party under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Although President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is still the clear favourite to win the presidential race, a larger opposition block in parliament would pose a significant challenge to the governing AKP.
It is important to note that, this week, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could not ignore the surge in popularity by the main opposition candidate, Muharrem Ince, who has been putting on quite a show recently spurring hope amongst the opposition ranks that defeating President Recep Tayyip Erdogan might be within reach. It is interesting to note how Muharrem Ince has been focusing his attention on stirring up discontent for the governing AKP by telling crowds how the fortune President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spent on his new palace in TURKEY could have built 100,000 houses while he is now building a summer palace of 300 rooms in Marmaris. Of particular note is the analogy used by Muharrem Ince that TURKEY has all the resources it needs consisting of flour, butter and sugar but TURKEY cannot make helva, sweet TURKISH meat, because the chef is stealing the flour. Ironically, when the campaign for the June 24 polls began in mid-April, this former teacher was a middle-ranked politician who was forecast to place a distant third in the presidential race behind President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his popular female challenger, Meral Aksener. However, Muharrem Ince seems to have overtaken Meral Aksener in the polls that indicate that Muharrem Ince will finish second to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and face him in a runoff on July 8 such that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is paying Muharrem Ince the compliment of focusing all of his political attacks on him. Of particular note, if elected, Muharrem Ince pledges to dismantle the authoritarian regime that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has built as Muharrem Ince promises to lift the state of emergency imposed after the failed “Coup D’État” of 2016 and restore the separation of powers of the state. Furthermore, Muharrem Ince promises to scrap the excessively powerful presidency that was narrowly approved last year in a referendum while being tarnished by widespread allegations of fraud and thus once again restore the parliamentary system of governance. In addition, Muharrem Ince stated that as President, he would seek to put President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on trial on the basis that if President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s wealth is to be investigated, it must be by an independent judiciary in order to restore political neutrality to state institutions.
In addition, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that TURKEY’s military will not stop trying to oust SYRIAN KURDISH fighters from SYRIA’s north with the ultimate goal of moving eastward into MANBIJ and other areas controlled by the U.S. backed KURDISH YPG which TURKEY considers to be terrorists regardless of what the U.S. or any other nation has to say about the KURDISH YPG. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated that TURKEY would not stop until TURKEY has made safe all areas currently controlled by the KURDISH YPG starting with MANBIJ. However, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also stressed that TURKEY’s fight against the KURDISH YPG would not distract from efforts to eliminate the remnants of ISIS in SYRIA. Nonetheless, U.S. President Donald Trump announced his intent to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria as soon as the fight against ISIS is complete while stating that the U.S. will consult with groups of U.S. allies and coordinate with others in SYRIA in order to decide the U.S. next steps after the completion of the U.S. mission of defeat of ISIS in SYRIA while TURKEY continues to remain one of the allies that should be involved in these U.S. consultations. While the U.S. continues to describe its decision to work with the KURDISH YPG as a tactical, short-term approach to the defeat of ISIS, the U.S. seems to still desire to maintain relations with its NATO ally TURKEY on the basis that a Syria that is stabilized along terms dictated by IRAN goes against U.S. interests in the region. Meanwhile, this week, the SYRIAN Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) stated that KURDISH military advisers would leave the town of MANBIJ only one day after TURKEY and the UNITED STATES announced that they had reached an agreement on the KURDISH YPG’s withdrawal. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu stated that in the first phase, the KURDISH YPG will withdraw from MANBIJ while being disarmed as they withdraw to the east of the Euphrates river although TURKEY does not accept this preliminary move as a final decision that the KURDISH YPG will stay there permanently.
Meanwhile, the leaders of three major players in SYRIA, RUSSIA, IRAN and TURKEY ended a summit with a commitment to achieving a lasting ceasefire in SYRIA, even as the future role of U.S. forces in SYRIA remains in doubt. The meeting in the TURKISH capital of ANKARA brought together two of SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad’s strongest supporters, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of TURKEY, as the primary backer of the opposition Free Syrian Army (FSA). Notably absent from the talks were representatives from SYRIA itself and from the U.S., another important player in the SYRIAN conflict. In an unusual show of solidarity with IRAN, Turkish President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan told his IRANIAN counterpart Hassan Rouhani that he found the U.S. decision to withdraw from a 2015 nuclear deal with IRAN to be wrong. In a telephone call, TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan told IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani that TURKEY wanted the deal to be maintained, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would pull out from the deal. Meanwhile, this week, ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated in response to TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s comments on the U.S. relocation of its embassy to JERUSALEM that receiving lectures about morality from a leader who bombs KURDISH villagers in his native TURKEY, who jails journalists and who helps IRAN get around international sanctions do not carry significant weight. It is important to note that TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan’s harsh rhetoric against ISRAEL went as far as comparing ISRAEL’s response to recent GAZA protests to that of NAZI Germany. In particular, TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan stated that there is no difference at all between the persecution inflicted on the JEWS in EUROPE 75 years ago and the brutality faced by TURKEY’s brothers in GAZA. In addition, TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan stated that the children of people who were tortured in concentration camps in every way during World War II unfortunately today are comparable to methods against innocent PALESTINIANS that are in no way inferior to those of the NAZIS.
IRAQ News
As a friendly reminder, IRAQI and ALLIED forces have pushed ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces first liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety subsequent to ALLIANCE forces seizing complete control of western MOSUL from ISIS. It is important to note that IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS to the point of ISIS relinquishing control of MOSUL as the world watched the scenes of jubilation as IRAQI forces liberated the OLD MOSUL City from ISIS. However, with 40,000 plus dead in the battle to take back OLD MOSUL City from ISIS, the scale of civilian casualties reveals a massacre with many bodies still buried under the rubble and the level of human suffering immense. However, many ISIS militias have taken to the hills and began to wage a classic rural guerrilla war, while some ISIS sleeper cells have also been activated at the border of Baghdad, the IRAQI capital. Thus, ISIS has now returned to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group as the Islamic State of IRAQ and SYRIA can no longer call itself a state as ISIS has lost all capacity to act as a state but rather ISIS now stands exposed as a GANGSTER sham.
Meanwhile, TURKEY withdrew from launching a ground operation against KURDISH PKK militants in the IRAQI district of SINJAR as the PKK chose to withdraw from the area on their own in order to avert an imminent TURKISH attack on SINJAR. As a friendly reminder, the KURDISH PKK has fought a bloody war against TURKISH forces for over three decades with the KURDISH PKK hardline tactics drawing international condemnation as fighting has largely been concentrated in IRAQ’s southeast region which has a large KURDISH community who are seeking independence or autonomy. The PKK was forced to leave after threats and pressure from TURKEY on IRAQ whereby TURKEY clearly stated that TURKEY might enter IRAQ at any time to strike the KURDISH PKK which TURKEY views as a terrorist organization while the YAZIDI view TURKEY as their saviours from ISIS. However, the KURDISH PKK seem to still have the support of the KURDISH people of IRAQ who seem to share the KURDISH PKK sole objective of fighting for the rights of minorities while their Democratic Confederalism ideology is widely known and supported by the KURDISH population as it is already in use in Syria’s KURDISH region. The women of IRAQ also tend to see the KURDISH PKK favourably as approximately 35% of the KURDISH PKK consists of women known as hard-core feminists who are fighting for their rights. The KURDISH PKK women have repeatedly stated that they are fighting for a natural life where women and men are equal without the pressures of inequality where all differences between people are eliminated.
As a friendly reminder, the KURDS still consider the September 25 referendum victory as the culmination of decades of struggle for a KURDISH state of their own although the IRAQI government has clearly stated that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. However, after the votes were tallied and the referendum passed with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, Iraq’s top SHIITE cleric out right rejected the outcome of KURDISTAN’s independence vote despite the overwhelming 92% voting in favour of separating from IRAQ. Subsequently, IRAQI forces along with IRANIAN trained paramilitaries deployed heavy weaponry build up in KIRKUK, the jewel of the proposed future KURDISTAN state enabling IRAQI forces to take control of all major areas of KIRKUK province from KURDISH YPG fighters. In particular, IRAQI forces took ALTON KUPRI, the oil-rich province of KURDISTAN as rocket; artillery and heavy machine-gun fire erupted in the region.
Subsequently, IRAQI Kurdish authorities stated that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession. However, the KURDS also stated that this decision must become a basis for starting an inclusive national dialogue between KURDISTAN and IRAQ to resolve all disputes through implementation of all constitutional articles and in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution because all elements of the IRAQI Constitution must be respected in order to secure the unity of IRAQ. Meanwhile, this week, KURDISH politicians continued to boycott IRAQI parliament with relentless protests at the reduction of KURDISTAN’s share from 17% to nearly 12% of the IRAQI parliament approved 2018 budget. Further, highlighting the division was IRAQ accusing KURDISTAN of corruption in handling oil exports from fields under the KURDISTAN region’s control while IRAQ also went so far as to suggest that revenues could be sufficient to satisfy KURDISTAN expenses otherwise which the KURDISTAN government obviously refuted.
Meanwhile this week, the only thing that appears certain after the May 12, 2018 election is that the voters have rejected both IRAN and the U.S. consisting of the two outside powers that have dominated IRAQI internal affairs since 2003 such that the election of a coalition headed by the populist SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr is a sign that a growing number of IRAQIS are eager to reassert their identity and independence. Thus, all the IRAQI election did was establish a framework for the real political negotiations that are currently ongoing and will likely take months to complete. However, there are two obvious potential outcomes from IRAQI political party negotiations with substantial regional and international consequences. That is, the first potential outcome is a coalition headed by Moqtada al-Sadr that probably means a diminishing U.S. presence in IRAQ combined with an IRAQI government that is independent of IRAN’s influence while reintegrating an independent and sovereign IRAQ into the Arab world. Conversely, the second potential outcome is a coalition headed by the pro-IRANIAN Fatah Alliance representing the SHIITE militias along with parties loyal to former Prime Ministers Haider al-Abadi and Nouri al-Maliki as well as smaller groups such as the Kurdistan Coalition that would result in an overtly pro-IRANIAN government. Nonetheless, this week, IRAQ’s parliament ordered a full recount of the IRAQ’s recent parliamentary election that resulted in a shock victory for SHIA leader Muqtada al-Sadr. IRAQ’s outgoing 328-seat parliament voted in favour of a manual recount of all 11 million ballots from the May 12 poll in response to charges of electoral fraud. In addition, MP’s also fired a nine-member independent electoral commission that oversaw the process and replaced the body with judges. It is important to note that complaints had been raised by a number of parties from across IRAQ in the day after the vote with dissatisfaction from areas in the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) and the predominantly SUNNI provinces of ANBAR, SALAH AL-DIN and DIYALA. However, Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi endorsed the findings and the recommendations of a ministerial committee that alleged that there were dangerous violations in the elections blaming electronic vote counting devices used without prior inspection for errors. Thus, according to intelligence services, tests of electronic voting machines used for the first time in IRAQI elections produced varied results, appearing to give credence to the fraud claims.
SYRIA News
As a friendly reminder, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH have made remarkable progress in the DEIR AL-ZOR region over the last several months liberating most of the province that was previously occupied by ISIS. Most recently, SAA units have made their way across several kilometers of territory south of the provincial capital of DEIR AL-ZOR striking ISIS in AL-MAYADEEN, ISIS’s new de facto capital in SYRIA. Therefore, the Russian Defence Ministry now estimates that the ISIS terrorist group controls less than five per cent of SYRIA after losing large swathes of territory to the SDF opposition fighters; the U.S. led coalition, the SAA and Russian allied forces. However, ISIS still controls several towns along the eastern and western banks of the EUPHRATES River. Among the occupied areas still under ISIS control are a group of towns that are located along the EUPHRATES River Valley including AL-ASHARAH, ABU HAMMAM, HAJEEN, AL-JALA and SOUSAH. However, the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declared that they have completely wiped out ISIS in Syria.
As a friendly reminder, after U.S. backed fighters had surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA, they finally managed to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. Fighters of the U.S. backed, KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) punched their way through ISIS lines in RAQQA city as KURDISH forces literally shot their way through the streets of RAQQA, concentrating fire on ISIS positions hidden in the urban ruin of RAQQA city while ISIS fought back hard. Meanwhile, witnesses of the aftermath of the battle for RAQQA duly noted that the victory celebrations by KURDISH forces felt muted as there were literally no civilians left in RAQQA such that it was the celebration of the liberation of a ghost town. However, Syrians hoping to return home to RAQQA now that RAQQA has been liberated from ISIS are being told to wait indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby some have already taken their toll in terms of human casualties.
Nonetheless, the current SYRIAN government under the control of President Bashar al-Assad stated that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA, which was liberated from ISIS by the U.S. backed and KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In particular, the existing SYRIAN regime stated that both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime. Meanwhile, this week, fighting has raged on in EASTERN GHOUTA as the death toll has slowly but steadily risen to over 1,500 in the last month with reports of at least 100 this week alone as RUSSIA formally stated that the massive RUSSIAN backed SYRIAN military offensive is almost over with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels now cornered in just a single town after being forced to abandon the greater part of the EASTERN GHOUTA region. Meanwhile several weeks ago, dozens of people were killed, including children, during the alleged toxic bombing, using chemical weapons, of rebel-held DOUMA, in the EASTERN GHOUTA region. Not surprisingly, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the U.S. military, in conjunction with France and the United Kingdom, to launch strikes on SYRIA in retaliation for the suspected chemical weapons attack by the SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad. However, U.S., British and French missile strikes had a limited impact on SYRIAN president Bashar al-Assad’s ability to carry out chemical weapons attacks in the future even though U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted Mission Accomplished after the attacks claiming that they had successfully struck the heart of SYRIA’s chemical weapons program.
Meanwhile this week, the tensions between IRAN and ISRAEL seem to have continued to escalate again after ISRAELI airstrikes targeted IRANIAN military infrastructure inside SYRIA. Obviously, IRAN condemned the wave of ISRAELI air strikes in SYRIA and clearly stated that these attacks by ISRAEL represent a blatant violation of SYRIA’s sovereignty such that IRAN has backed SYRIA’s right to defend itself against ISRAEL. It is important to note that the strikes were the heaviest strikes carried out by ISRAEL on SYRIA in decades that came right after twenty rockets were fired at ISRAELI military positions in the occupied Golan Heights of SYRIA. It is no secret that the strikes hurt IRAN that has deployed hundreds of troops inside SYRIA as military advisers to the SYRIAN governments Syrian Arab Army (SAA) while thousands of IRANIAN militia armed, trained and financed by IRAN have also been battling SYRIAN rebel forces alongside the SAA. ISRAEL stated that ISRAELI fighter jets struck almost IRAN’s entire military infrastructure inside Syria consisting of some 70 targets in ISRAELS biggest assault since SYRIA’s civil war commenced in 2011. Subsequently, this week, the tone escalated between ISRAEL and IRAN as ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad is no longer immune and thus threatened to carry out direct strikes against the SYRIAN regime if IRANIAN forces are not withdrawn from SYRIA. It is important to note that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s threats come at the end of his four-day diplomatic tour of EUROPE during which he lobbied EUROPEAN leaders to take a tougher stance against IRAN and in particular follow U.S. President Donald Trump’s lead of withdrawing from the IRANIAN nuclear deal. Thus, while speaking at the Policy Exchange think tank in London, ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that SYRIAN president Bashar al-Assad’s regime is no longer immune such that if SYRIAN forces fire at ISRAEL, ISRAEL will destroy the SYRIAN forces.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the KURDS as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis.
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures while TURKISH forces and their Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel allies continued to celebrate the capture of AFRIN in what from the KURDISH perspective appears to have been a massacre. In my opinion, the KURDISH YPG had little choice but to abandon AFRIN as the KURDISH YPG militants decided not to make a fight until death stand against TURKEY as around 10,000 KURDISH YPG militants quickly withdrew in order to be alive to fight against TURKEY elsewhere after more that 1,500 KURDISH YPG fighters had been killed in the AFRIN offensive by TURKEY whose sheer brute military strength cannot be denied.
Meanwhile, this week’s focus in TURKEY on the upcoming elections on June 24, 2018 is not surprising as it represents the most pivotal election in modern TURKISH history that will result in the abolition of the prime minister’s role and thus President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could very well fulfill his dreams by obtaining supreme political power while overturning almost a century of parliamentary rule. Although in my opinion the coalition formed by the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the Iyi Party (IP), the Islamist Saadet Party (SP) and the Democrat Party (DP) makes complete sense strategically, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan still appears to be the clear favourite to win the presidential race although a larger opposition block in parliament would pose a significant challenge to the governing AKP. In my opinion, the governing AKP is currently looking to capitalize on positive TURKISH nationalist sentiments after the TURKISH military victory in AFRIN as the governing AKP had never before called early elections in the nearly 16 years the governing AKP has been in power. However, in my opinion, the balance of power may very well lie with the KURDISH HDP that was left out of the opposition alliance.
However, this week’s shift in focus from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the main opposition candidate, Muharrem Ince, is quite surprising but it seems that his usage of popular analogies such as TURKEY having all the resources it needs consisting of flour, butter and sugar but that TURKEY cannot make helva, sweet TURKISH meat, because the chef is stealing the flour have been evoking quite a popular following. Thus, from my perspective, it appears that Muharrem Ince is the man to vote for to end President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s 15-year rule as the relief pitcher for secularism in Turkey. In my opinion, although President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been paying Muharrem Ince the compliment of focusing all of his political attacks on him due to his rise in the polls as the number one contender to the Presidency, Muharrem Ince does not seem to be deterred as he often brings up President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s alleged corruption when President Recep Tayyip Erdogan berates him as a poor fellow with a strong comeback that he prefers to be poor than of questionable wealth. In my opinion, Muharrem Ince has cultivated the support of the KURDS that represents a risky move in a political climate dominated by nationalist bluster. However, Muharrem Ince went to see the KURDISH challenger, Selahattin Demirtas, in EDIRNE prison, where he is detained on charges of terrorism while calling on President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to release Selahattin Demirtas so that they can race like men. Furthermore, Muharrem Ince stated that if he were elected, he would initiate negotiations to solve the KURDISH problem between KURDISH and TURKISH legislators in parliament. In my opinion, these moves are clearly designed to win the KURDISH vote in a possible run-off election in a country where right-wing politicians garner votes by attacking the KURDS as opposed to Muharrem Ince who garners votes by supporting the KURDS. However, in my opinion, the biggest obstacle for Muharrem Ince will be the media as the playing field is not level, as pro-Erdogan corporations now own most TV channels and newspapers such that Muharrem Ince’s campaign will be under-reported.
In regards to TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warning that TURKEY’s military will not stop trying to oust SYRIAN KURDISH fighters from SYRIA’s north and that TURKISH troops would move eastward into MANBIJ and other areas controlled by the U.S. backed KURDISH YPG which TURKEY considers to be terrorists regardless of what the U.S. or any other nation has to say about the KURDISH YPG, it is difficult to determine at this time whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will execute on this threat in the short-term or whether he will be open to negotiations with the KURDISH YPG via the U.S. However, unlike the case in AFRIN, the U.S. has troops based in MANBIJ and across the rest of the KURDISH region such that the U.S. is adamant that it will not withdraw its ground forces from MANBIJ under the presumption that TURKEY cannot attack the city of MANBIJ without running the risk of killing U.S. soldiers. Therefore, in my opinion, some kind of mutual agreement between TURKEY and the U.S. will likely determine the fate of MANBIJ in the near future. In addition, in my opinion, given the fact that the U.S. is retaining forces in other parts of the KURDISH region and is not planning on leaving anytime soon, TURKEY’s goal of invading the entire KURDISH region is unlikely to transpire in the short-term. Thus, I was not surprised to see the U.S. and TURKEY reach an agreement on the KURDISH YPG’s withdrawal from MANBIJ although I was a little bit surprised to see the KURDISH YPG accept the U.S. decision but in my opinion, the KURDISH YPG realize that the U.S. have been their allies in the war against ISIS such that they seem to trust that the U.S. will negotiate the best deal possible with TURKEY in order to avert a full fledge civil war. Thus, the KURDISH YPG should be commended for exercising restraint and agreeing to leave MANBIJ, as MANBIJ could very well be a key turning point in the SYRIAN civil war. In my opinion with the government Syrian Arab Army (SAA), KURDISH YPG fighters, Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels, TURKEY and the US all having a military presence in the north of SYRIA, all efforts must be exerted to avert a full fledge conflict as all hell could easily break loose.
In regards to the leaders of three major players in SYRIA; RUSSIA, IRAN and TURKEY ending a summit with a commitment to achieving a lasting ceasefire in SYRIA, even as the future role of U.S. forces in SYRIA remains in doubt, everyone seems to agree with the overall principal that a SYRIAN peace deal followed by humanitarian aid is critical albeit the realities that the respective parties cannot seem to be able to agree on the details in terms of timing and logistics. In regards to the unusual show of solidarity with IRAN whereby Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his IRANIAN counterpart Hassan Rouhani that he found the U.S. decision to withdraw from a 2015 nuclear deal with IRAN to be wrong, I am not surprised as TURKEY recognizes that the deal was the product of more than a decade of diplomacy whereby the final nuclear agreement signed in July of 2015 by the U.S., France, Britain, Germany, Russia, China and Iran represents a milestone that the U.S. has now unilaterally decided to withdraw from. Not surprisingly, among the few nations to welcome U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision were ISRAEL and SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN’s arch-nemesis in the Middle East. Thus, I was not surprised to see this week, TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan’s harsh rhetoric against ISRAEL going as far as comparing ISRAEL’s response to recent GAZA protests to that of NAZI Germany. However, I am surprised that ISRAEL has not adjusted its policy towards TURKEY as TURKEY certainly has altered its policy toward ISRAEL such that ISRAEL should consider now throwing its support behind the KURDS as they need strong economic backing from foreign investment such that ISRAEL could finance the development of the KURDISH region. In my opinion, the ISRAELI government only speaks out on behalf of the KURDS when it benefits ISRAEL’s own national interests and does not really seem to care about the KURDISH cause while strategically the KURDS could very well serve as an ISRAELI ally.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after over one year of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power.
However, KURDISH and IRAQI forces still need to be vigilant for ISIS reunions to launch attacks through small covert groups of suicide attackers. In my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Hider al-Abadi’s announcement of full liberation of IRAQI lands with an official declaration of an end of the war against ISIS is accurate in theory but not in practice as significant ISIS fighters are still hiding underground like rats. In my opinion, the shift in focus to the KURDISH PKK has come from intense pressure from TURKEY who has warned IRAQ that TURKEY will do what is necessary if IRAQI forces fail to clear the SINJAR area of KURDISH PKK militants. In my opinion, the KURDISH PKK made the right strategic move stating that it entered SINJAR in 2014 to help defend the YAZIDI people against ISIS such that the PKK fighters withdrew from SINJAR stating that the YAZIDI minority there did not face any security threat any more. However, the KURDISH PKK seem to still have the support of the KURDISH people of IRAQ who seem to share the KURDISH PKK sole objective of fighting for the rights of minorities. In my opinion, the KURDISH PKK have distinctly made it clear that they will fight as long as the KURDISH minorities are not given the rights mentioned in the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights of the United Nations such that I am not surprised at all that the UN has not been willing to discuss the adding of the KURDISH PKK to the terrorist list of the United Nations. In my opinion, the women of IRAQ also tend to see the KURDISH PKK favourably as approximately 35% of the KURDISH PKK consists of women known as hard-core feminists who are fighting for their rights. In my opinion, it is not surprising to see women turning to the KURDISH PKK who recognize women as equals as opposed to an IRAQI society whereby women seem to grow up enslaved as the minute you are born as a girl, society seems to inhibit you.
However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
Meanwhile, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. In my opinion, this week’s KURDISH politicians continuing with their total withdrawal from the IRAQI political arena is not surprising after the IRAQI parliament approved the 2018 budget with a reduced share for the KURDISH autonomous region from 17% of the IRAQI budget as had been the case since the new IRAQI government was formed after the U.S. led invasion to the proportion of the KURDISH population that the IRAQI government estimates to be at 12.6%. In my opinion, the 17% demand by the KURDISH government is reasonable as at least 17% of IRAQI soil is covered with KURDISH blood such that the KURDS earned their 17% share through blood, sweat and tears as the KURDISH forces held back ISIS forces from conquering IRAQ in its entirety while IRAQI forces were scrambling and nowhere to be seen.
Meanwhile, in regards to this week’s analysis of IRAQI election results, it is certain that the IRAQI political structure remains complicated with the biggest number of parliamentary seats of 54 won by the coalition headed by the populist SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, a coalition of pro-IRANIAN Shiite parties finishing second with 47 seats while the block led by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, the U.S. favourite, finishing closely with 42 seats. In my opinion, either a coalition under Moqtada al-Sadr will emerge or a pro-IRANIAN coalition under the Fatah Alliance will emerge such that either way, it seems that the U.S. presence in IRAQ will likely diminish over time. In my opinion, many Americans still remember Moqtada al-Sadr from the post-invasion period of IRAQI history when he commanded a militia that attacked U.S. forces and committed atrocities against the SUNNI population. Ironically, Moqtada al-Sadr never reconciled with the U.S. while contemporaneously having a bitter falling out with IRAN. However, in my opinion, Moqtada al-Sadr seems to now be repositioning IRAQ for closer relations with SAUDI ARABIA that once wrote-off IRAQ as a victory for IRAN while now once again, the SAUDI Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, seems to be courting IRAQI’s SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. In my opinion, this weeks ordering by IRAQ’s parliament of a full recount of IRAQ’s recent parliamentary election that resulted in a shock victory for SHIA leader Muqtada al-Sadr is not surprising as nobody ever expected him to win. However, IRAQ’s outgoing 328-seat parliament voted in favour of a manual recount of all 11 million ballots from the May 12 poll in response to charges of electoral fraud stemming primarily from electronic voting machines used for the first time in IRAQI elections that produced varied results, appearing to give credence to the fraud claims. In my opinion, the recount has been triggered by the apparent frontrunner, Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi coalition loosing their initial leads in the poll by coming in third with only 42 seats. Thus, in my opinion, Moqtada al-Sadr’s performance represented a rebuke to the IRAQI political elites that many voters blame for widespread corruption and dysfunctional governance. Conversely, Moqtada al-Sadr’s coalition promised to help the poor and build schools and hospitals, which were battered in the war against ISIS, and fiercely opposed any foreign interference in IRAQ, whether IRANIAN or US. Ironically, Moqtada al-Sadr himself cannot become prime minister as he did not run in the election, but his block’s victory puts him in a position to have a strong say in negotiations over the future government.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, it finally does appear that ISIS has been defeated in DEIR AL-ZOR, AL-MAYADEEN and AL-BUKAMAL albeit violent clashes that sporadically continue to erupt around the town as ISIS finds itself trapped like rats underground only to be swept to the surface as the SAA goes through their respective sweeping operations across the outskirts of town. However, with the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declaring that they have completely wiped out ISIS in SYRIA, I expect that the remaining ISIS militants will be hiding in small towns and villages along the border with IRAQ in the SYRIAN dessert such that the remaining portion of no mans land along the Middle Euphrates River Valley will most likely represent ISIS’s last stand. In my opinion, ISIS still controls thousands of square kilometres of desert in the DEIR AL-ZOR, HOMS, IDLIB and DARAA regions such that although ISIS has been forced out of major SYRIAN cities, ISIS is still able to stage attacks on SAA and other rebel forces from these desert areas such that victory may have been achieved albeit ISIS still existing as a thorn in everybodies sides.
In regards to the Syrian city of RAQQA, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires. In my opinion, now in its seventh year, the war in SYRIA has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society.
Nonetheless, this week, it was sad to see the war in SYRIA entering into a dangerous new phase as EASTERN GHOUTA under attack by SYRIAN Regime forces on so-called SYRIAN rebel terrorists is a human tragedy that is unfolding before everybodies eyes such that in my opinion the international community cannot let things keep going in this horrendous fashion. As a friendly reminder, in some of the worst bombardment campaigns of the war in SYRIA, over one thousand people have been killed and over five thousand have been injured in EASTERN GHOUTA, a Free Syrian Army (FSA) held enclave that is home to about 400,000 people that borders the SYRIAN capital of Damascus. In my opinion, President Bashar al-Assad wants to recapture EASTERN GHOUTA because it is so close to DAMASCUS, the capital of SYRIA, that it is possible for rebels to fire mortars into the heart of the capital. In my opinion, the alleged toxic bombing several weeks ago, using chemical weapons, of rebel-held DOUMA, in the EASTERN GHOUTA region killing dozens of people, including children, was deplorable to say the least. Therefore, U.S. President Donald Trump was forced to order the U.S. military, in conjunction with France and the United Kingdom, to launch strikes on SYRIA in retaliation for the suspected chemical weapons attack by the SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad.
Meanwhile, in regards to this weeks escalation of tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN after ISRAELI airstrikes targeted IRANIAN military infrastructure inside SYRIA subsequent to IRAN striking ISRAELI positions in the Golan Heights, this reflects the very volatile situation unfolding before everybodies eyes such that common sense must prevail before emotions and hormones take over and the world finds itself in the midst of a Third and Final World War leading to complete disorder. In my opinion, the initial strike by IRAN on ISRAELI positions in the Golan Heights was triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to abandon the landmark international deal with IRAN regarding its nuclear programme, an agreement fiercely opposed by ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who was obviously instrumental in influencing U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision. In my opinion, there appears to have been some regressions this week as the tone escalated between ISRAEL and IRAN as ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad is no longer immune and thus threatened to carry out direct strikes against the SYRIAN regime if IRANIAN forces are not withdrawn from SYRIA. In my opinion, ISRAEL appears to have changed its strategy concerning SYRIA such that SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad has to understand that ISRAEL will not tolerate the IRANIAN military entrenchment in SYRIA against ISRAEL. In my opinion, the potential consequences are not merely to the IRANIAN forces in SYRIA but to the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) as well so that I believe that SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad should consider withdrawing IRANIAN forces from SYRIA as the SAA combined with RUSSIAN air force power is adequate to fight the remaining portions of the SYRIAN rebel factions who have been considerably weakened over the last year.
In my opinion, the current situation in the Middle East depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War that would likely be triggered by a direct ISRAEL and IRAN conflict, such that all leaders across the globe must avoid the temptation to look away but rather should increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, minimize civilian casualties, prevent the further use of chemical weapons and alleviate the humanitarian crisis from a civil war spiralling out of control with no end in sight, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the Middle East. That being said, the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby ISRAEL blames SYRIA directly for allowing IRANIAN troops to become entrenched within SYRIA and in turn now posing a threat to ISRAEL, as although ISRAEL chose not to intervene while SYRIA was engulfed in one of the bloodiest and most horrific civil wars of human history, the war in SYRIA appears to be heading in the direction of the existing SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad retaining power for the time being such that ISRAEL will not accept an IRANIAN entrenchment in SYRIA like the HEZBOLLAH entrenchment in LEBANON, while ISRAEL also holds IRAN responsible for fuelling recent violence on the GAZA border that has seen over 100 PALESTINIANS killed amid protests against ISRAEL, while ISRAEL continues to hold its hardline position that using non-lethal weapons to disperse PALESTINIAN protestors does not work as these are violent protests, for it to be evident that both ISRAEL and IRAN have such deep rooted psychological issues of hate, disrespect and contempt for each other that there is no possibility for IRANIAN paramilitary units to remain entrenched in SYRIA without ISRAEL striking their positions such that it would be best for the world at large for the IRANIAN forces to withdraw from SYRIA as the SYRIAN soil is unable to absorb any more blood while an ISRAELI and IRANIAN conflict would most certainly trigger a blood bath.
In my opinion, as was seen recently with ISIS able to mount limited but nonetheless painful blows to various factions in SYRIA with shock and awe attacks in DEIR EZZOR, AL BUKAMAL and AL MAYADEEN, it is important to note that although ISIS’s caliphate no longer exists and the ISIS flag does not fly over territory, ISIS has not disappeared but rather ISIS has reverted to old terrorist tactics used before 2014. That is, attacks against security forces and civilians, often involving fake checkpoints, have centered on ISIS’s former strongholds of rugged rural areas known as ISIS strongholds for being hospitable for ISIS to hide out because of the rough terrain so that ISIS has been able to dig tunnels and store weapons, ammunition and bomb-making materials. Therefore, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, although ISIS was literally disappearing from the face of the map in SYRIA, new showdowns between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in the EASTERN GHOUTA region only serves to fuel the re-emergence of ISIS as a dangerous player in SYRIA. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS such that this war could very well continue for years to come if RUSSIA is not given mediator powers to negotiate a deal between all Parties. In my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and utter madness.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 302” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while focusing on the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby ISRAEL blames SYRIA directly for allowing IRANIAN troops to become entrenched within SYRIA and in turn now posing a threat to ISRAEL, as although ISRAEL chose not to intervene while SYRIA was engulfed in one of the bloodiest and most horrific civil wars of human history, ISRAEL will not accept an IRANIAN entrenchment in SYRIA like the HEZBOLLAH entrenchment in LEBANON, while ISRAEL also holds IRAN responsible for fuelling recent violence on the GAZA border that has seen over 100 PALESTINIANS killed amid protests against ISRAEL, while ISRAEL continues to hold its hardline position that using non-lethal weapons to disperse PALESTINIAN protestors does not work as these are violent protests, for it to be evident that both ISRAEL and IRAN have such deep rooted psychological issues of hate, disrespect and contempt for each other such that it would be best for the world at large for the IRANIAN forces to withdraw from SYRIA as the SYRIAN soil is unable to absorb any more blood while an ISRAELI and IRANIAN conflict would most certainly trigger another blood bath.
http://www.therockswebmarket.com/world-peace-lennon-ivan-style-part-302
ReplyDelete