In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 297” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while focusing on the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential third and final world war that would likely be triggered by an ISRAEL and IRAN conflict, leading to a greater likelihood than ever before that a broader MIDDLE EAST conflict erupts, as all major players in the region are currently armed and dangerous, such that a prolonged civil war could erupt including all the big players consisting of SYRIA, IRAQ, TURKEY, U.S., ISRAEL, IRAN, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON, SAUDI ARABIA, YEMEN, JORDAN & RUSSIA, such that all hell could very easily break loose if any one of these Parties perform some sort of provocative move, such that there has never been nor will there ever be, an easy policy solution to the MIDDLE EAST crisis, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, minimize civilian casualties, prevent the further use of chemical weapons and alleviate the humanitarian crisis from a civil war spiralling out of control with no end in sight, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST.
TURKEY News
As a friendly reminder, TURKEY has been on the defense ever since an internal military “Coup D’État” failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP focused their attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say that the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants.
During the week ending on Sunday, May 6, 2018, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures although TURKEY’s crushing of the free press, destruction of the freedom of speech and restrictions to the right to peaceful demonstrations seems to be punishing the TURKISH economy as high inflation in TURKEY and a surge in foreign borrowing by TURKISH banks could plunge TURKEY into an economic crisis during 2018. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKISH forces and their Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel allies continued to celebrate the capture of AFRIN as the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) did not intervene so that TURKEY was in essence given the informal approval to crush the SYRIAN KURDISH region. However, at least 150,000 people have been displaced in AFRIN with estimates of the total number of civilian deaths at over 200 since TURKEY began its aggression in January of 2018 of the KURDISH region on the border between SYRIA and TURKEY under TURKEY’s Operation Olive Branch.
Meanwhile this week, the focus in TURKEY seemed to be on the upcoming elections on June 24, 2018 as the most pivotal election in modern TURKISH history will result in the abolition of the prime minister’s role and thus President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could very well fulfill his dreams by obtaining supreme political power while overturning almost a century of parliamentary rule. Therefore, the only question right now seems to be whether any opposition candidate can wage a credible challenge to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Thus, TURKEY’s main opposition parties are expected to announce a broad electoral alliance before general elections in June that could pose a significant challenge to the dominance of the governing AKP party under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The deal, which will include TURKEY’s largest secular and nationalist opposition blocks is likely to dilute the governing AKP’s control of the legislature and overcome the regulation that a political party must receive 10% of the national vote to win a seat in parliament which has essentially cemented President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s long-running majority. The coalition is expected to include the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the Iyi Party (IP), the Islamist Saadet Party (SP) and the Democrat Party (DP). The secularist CHP Party is the largest opposition group in parliament while the newly formed İyi Party is composed primarily of nationalists such that together they will run against the governing AKP and the Nationalist Action Party (MHP). Although President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is the clear favourite to win the presidential race, a larger opposition block in parliament would pose a significant challenge to the governing AKP. It is important to note that the alliance does not include the pro-KURDISH HDP that has suffered from a wide-ranging government crackdown on dissent that has led to the imprisonment of many of its officials including the two HDP party leaders. Despite these setbacks, the KURDISH HDP may still reach its electoral threshold and enter parliament due to its popularity with KURDISH voters and the ability of its KURDISH candidates to run as independents for which the 10% rule would not apply.
In addition, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that TURKEY’s military will not stop trying to oust SYRIAN KURDISH fighters from SYRIA’s north with the ultimate goal of moving eastward into MANBIJ and other areas controlled by the U.S. backed KURDISH YPG which TURKEY considers to be terrorists regardless of what the U.S. or any other nation has to say about the KURDISH YPG. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated that TURKEY would not stop until TURKEY has made safe all areas currently controlled by the KURDISH YPG starting with MANBIJ. However, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also stressed that TURKEY’s fight against the KURDISH YPG would not distract from efforts to eliminate the remnants of ISIS in SYRIA. Nonetheless, U.S. President Donald Trump announced his intent to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria as soon as the fight against ISIS is complete while stating that the U.S. will consult with groups of U.S. allies and coordinate with others in SYRIA in order to decide the U.S. next steps after the completion of the U.S. mission of defeat of ISIS in SYRIA while TURKEY continues to remain one of the allies that should be involved in these U.S. consultations. While the U.S. continues to describe its decision to work with the KURDISH YPG as a tactical, short-term approach to the defeat of ISIS, the U.S. seems to still desire to maintain relations with its NATO ally TURKEY on the basis that a Syria that is stabilized along terms dictated by IRAN goes against U.S. interests in the region.
Meanwhile, the leaders of three major players in SYRIA, RUSSIA, IRAN and TURKEY ended a summit with a commitment to achieving a lasting ceasefire in SYRIA, even as the future role of U.S. forces in SYRIA remains in doubt. The meeting in the TURKISH capital of ANKARA brought together two of SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad’s strongest supporters, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of TURKEY, as the primary backer of the opposition Free Syrian Army (FSA). Notably absent from the talks were representatives from SYRIA itself and from the U.S., another important player in the SYRIAN conflict.
IRAQ News
As a friendly reminder, IRAQI and ALLIED forces have pushed ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces first liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety subsequent to ALLIANCE forces seizing complete control of western MOSUL from ISIS. It is important to note that IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS to the point of ISIS relinquishing control of MOSUL as the world watched the scenes of jubilation as IRAQI forces liberated the OLD MOSUL City from ISIS. However, with 40,000 plus dead in the battle to take back OLD MOSUL City from ISIS, the scale of civilian casualties reveals a massacre with many bodies still buried under the rubble and the level of human suffering immense. However, many ISIS militias have taken to the hills and began to wage a classic rural guerrilla war, while some ISIS sleeper cells have also been activated at the border of Baghdad, the IRAQI capital. Thus, ISIS has now returned to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group as the Islamic State of IRAQ and SYRIA can no longer call itself a state as ISIS has lost all capacity to act as a state but rather ISIS now stands exposed as a GANGSTER sham.
Meanwhile, TURKEY withdrew from launching a ground operation against KURDISH PKK militants in the IRAQI district of SINJAR as the PKK chose to withdraw from the area on their own in order to avert an imminent TURKISH attack on SINJAR. As a friendly reminder, the KURDISH PKK has fought a bloody war against TURKISH forces for over three decades with the KURDISH PKK hardline tactics drawing international condemnation as fighting has largely been concentrated in IRAQ’s southeast region which has a large KURDISH community who are seeking independence or autonomy. The PKK was forced to leave after threats and pressure from TURKEY on IRAQ whereby TURKEY clearly stated that TURKEY might enter IRAQ at any time to strike the KURDISH PKK which TURKEY views as a terrorist organization while the YAZIDI view TURKEY as their saviours from ISIS. However, the KURDISH PKK seem to still have the support of the KURDISH people of IRAQ who seem to share the KURDISH PKK sole objective of fighting for the rights of minorities while their Democratic Confederalism ideology is widely known and supported by the KURDISH population as it is already in use in Syria’s KURDISH region. The women of IRAQ also tend to see the KURDISH PKK favourably as approximately 35% of the KURDISH PKK consists of women known as hard-core feminists who are fighting for their rights. The KURDISH PKK women have repeatedly stated that they are fighting for a natural life where women and men are equal without the pressures of inequality where all differences between people are eliminated.
As a friendly reminder, the KURDS still consider the September 25 referendum victory as the culmination of decades of struggle for a KURDISH state of their own although the IRAQI government has clearly stated that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. However, after the votes were tallied and the referendum passed with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, Iraq’s top SHIITE cleric out right rejected the outcome of KURDISTAN’s independence vote despite the overwhelming 92% voting in favour of separating from IRAQ. Subsequently, IRAQI forces along with IRANIAN trained paramilitaries deployed heavy weaponry build up in KIRKUK, the jewel of the proposed future KURDISTAN state enabling IRAQI forces to take control of all major areas of KIRKUK province from KURDISH YPG fighters. In particular, IRAQI forces took ALTON KUPRI, the oil-rich province of KURDISTAN as rocket; artillery and heavy machine-gun fire erupted in the region.
Subsequently, IRAQI Kurdish authorities stated that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession. However, the KURDS also stated that this decision must become a basis for starting an inclusive national dialogue between KURDISTAN and IRAQ to resolve all disputes through implementation of all constitutional articles and in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution because all elements of the IRAQI Constitution must be respected in order to secure the unity of IRAQ. Meanwhile, this week, KURDISH politicians continued to boycott IRAQI parliament with relentless protests at the reduction of KURDISTAN’s share from 17% to nearly 12% of the IRAQI parliament approved 2018 budget. Further, highlighting the division was IRAQ accusing KURDISTAN of corruption in handling oil exports from fields under the KURDISTAN region’s control while IRAQ also went so far as to suggest that revenues could be sufficient to satisfy KURDISTAN expenses otherwise which the KURDISTAN government obviously refuted.
Meanwhile this week, the IRAQI journalist who threw his shoes at former U.S. President George W. Bush announced that he is running for IRAQI parliament. Muntader al-Zaidi is running in next week’s elections as a candidate for a party founded by the influential SHIA cleric Moqtada Sadr. Mr. Zaidi stated that he wants to fight the corruption that currently plagues IRAQ. Ironically, his protest during a visit by former U.S. President George W. Bush to Baghdad in 2008 made him a hero for many IRAQIS although he was also convicted of assaulting a foreign leader. Interestingly, he served nine months out of a 12 month prison sentence while after his release, he alleged that he had been tortured by IRAQI officials and IRAQI guards and that he needed treatment for broken teeth, broken bones and other injuries. However, now Mr. Zaidi vows that if he is elected to the IRAQI parliament on May 12, 2018, he will sweep away all of the thieves and corrupt politicians, prosecute those who steal from IRAQI government coffers and cease the common practice of public money being wasted. It is important to note that these are the first elections to be held since the IRAQI government declared victory over ISIS last December.
SYRIA News
As a friendly reminder, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH have made remarkable progress in the DEIR AL-ZOR region over the last several months liberating most of the province that was previously occupied by ISIS. Most recently, SAA units have made their way across several kilometers of territory south of the provincial capital of DEIR AL-ZOR striking ISIS in AL-MAYADEEN, ISIS’s new de facto capital in SYRIA. Therefore, the Russian Defence Ministry now estimates that the ISIS terrorist group controls less than five per cent of SYRIA after losing large swathes of territory to the SDF opposition fighters; the U.S. led coalition, the SAA and Russian allied forces. However, ISIS still controls several towns along the eastern and western banks of the EUPHRATES River. Among the occupied areas still under ISIS control are a group of towns that are located along the EUPHRATES River Valley including AL-ASHARAH, ABU HAMMAM, HAJEEN, AL-JALA and SOUSAH. However, the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declared that they have completely wiped out ISIS in Syria.
Meanwhile, this week, TURKEY continued to celebrate victory after artillery hammered SYRIA’s AFRIN region with air power, artillery and ground troops as the KURDISH YPG chose to withdraw 10,000 KURDISH YPG militants after more than 1,500 were killed by TURKISH troops in the AFRIN offensive. Ironically, following TURKEY’s conquest of KURDISH AFRIN, TURKEY has repeatedly said that it intends to capture the city of MANBIJ from the KURDISH YPG next as TURKEY claims that it will conquer all territories east of AFRIN, all the way to the Iraqi border. Thus, TURKEY will pressure the U.S. to facilitate a peaceful withdrawal of the KURDISH YPG from MANBIJ in the coming weeks although the northwestern province of IDLIB, south of AFRIN, will likely be the TURKISH military’s next area of operation in SYRIA. As a friendly reminder, MANBIJ is an ARAB majority city captured by the KURDISH YPG led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) from ISIS in August of 2016 with U.S. air support. However, prior to that offensive, the U.S. promised TURKEY that only a small KURDISH YPG force would participate in the operation and that they would not remain in MANBIJ following the removal of ISIS. Nonetheless, more than eighteen months later, TURKEY wants to see this promise fulfilled and will likely push to reach an agreement with the U.S. in MANBIJ.
As a friendly reminder, after U.S. backed fighters had surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA, they finally managed to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. Fighters of the U.S. backed, KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) punched their way through ISIS lines in RAQQA city as KURDISH forces literally shot their way through the streets of RAQQA, concentrating fire on ISIS positions hidden in the urban ruin of RAQQA city while ISIS fought back hard. Meanwhile, witnesses of the aftermath of the battle for RAQQA duly noted that the victory celebrations by KURDISH forces felt muted as there were literally no civilians left in RAQQA such that it was the celebration of the liberation of a ghost town. However, Syrians hoping to return home to RAQQA now that RAQQA has been liberated from ISIS are being told to wait indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby some have already taken their toll in terms of human casualties.
Nonetheless, the current SYRIAN government under the control of President Bashar al-Assad stated that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA, which was liberated from ISIS by the U.S. backed and KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In particular, the existing SYRIAN regime stated that both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime. Meanwhile, this week, fighting has raged on in EASTERN GHOUTA as the death toll has slowly but steadily risen to over 1,500 in the last month with reports of at least 100 this week alone as RUSSIA formally stated that the massive RUSSIAN backed SYRIAN military offensive is almost over with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels now cornered in just a single town after being forced to abandon the greater part of the EASTERN GHOUTA region. Meanwhile several weeks ago, dozens of people were killed, including children, during the alleged toxic bombing, using chemical weapons, of rebel-held DOUMA, in the EASTERN GHOUTA region. Not surprisingly, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the U.S. military, in conjunction with France and the United Kingdom, to launch strikes on SYRIA in retaliation for the suspected chemical weapons attack by the SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad. However, U.S., British and French missile strikes had a limited impact on SYRIAN president Bashar al-Assad’s ability to carry out chemical weapons attacks in the future even though U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted Mission Accomplished after the attacks claiming that they had successfully struck the heart of SYRIA’s chemical weapons program.
Meanwhile this week, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned that the SYRIAN civil war could be about to escalate and enter into a new phase as Hassan Nasrallah warned that the proxy war being fought in SYRIA could be replaced by a bigger war fought by larger powers. The tensions between IRAN and ISRAEL seem to have escalated again as ISRAELI airstrikes targeted alleged IRANIAN missiles bound for SYRIA causing huge explosions near HAMA. Meanwhile, as SYRIA’s war enters into its seventh year of fighting, the conflict is entering a dangerous new phase as President Bashar al-Assad forces step up their offensive operations and the broader proxy war intensifies between several nation states, with the most worrisome being tensions between IRAN and ISRAEL. As a friendly reminder, in early April, ISRAEL reportedly fired missiles at a SYRIAN airbase that killed seven IRANIANS while there are also reports this week that ISRAEL may have struck military bases used by IRAN and its proxy militias near HAMA and ALEPPO, killing additional IRANIANS. Meanwhile, U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis stated that IRAN is strengthening its military footprint in SYRIA while using SYRIA as a platform to transfer increasingly advanced weapons to HEZBOLLAH. Therefore, senior ISRAELI officials have repeatedly warned that ISRAEL will not accept a large IRANIAN military presence on its border and are thus reportedly now bracing for an IRANIAN response to the recent missile strikes.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the KURDS as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis.
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures while TURKISH forces and their Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel allies continued to celebrate the capture of AFRIN in what from the KURDISH perspective appears to have been a massacre. In my opinion, the KURDISH YPG had little choice but to abandon AFRIN as the KURDISH YPG militants decided not to make a fight until death stand against TURKEY as around 10,000 KURDISH YPG militants quickly withdrew in order to be alive to fight against TURKEY elsewhere after more that 1,500 KURDISH YPG fighters had been killed in the AFRIN offensive by TURKEY whose sheer brute military strength cannot be denied.
Meanwhile, this week’s focus in TURKEY on the upcoming elections on June 24, 2018 is not surprising as it represents the most pivotal election in modern TURKISH history that will result in the abolition of the prime minister’s role and thus President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could very well fulfill his dreams by obtaining supreme political power while overturning almost a century of parliamentary rule. Although in my opinion the apparent coalition to be formed by the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the Iyi Party (IP), the Islamist Saadet Party (SP) and the Democrat Party (DP) makes complete sense strategically, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan still appears to be the clear favourite to win the presidential race although a larger opposition block in parliament would pose a significant challenge to the governing AKP. In my opinion, the governing AKP is currently looking to capitalize on positive TURKISH nationalist sentiments after the TURKISH military victory in AFRIN as the governing AKP had never before called early elections in the nearly 16 years the governing AKP has been in power.
Although President Recep Tayyip Erdogan cited developments of historical importance in the region including the cross-border operations in SYRIA, I believe that a deteriorating economic outlook has prompted President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to advance the election date from November 2019 rather than risk seeking re-election in a potential economic downturn. Nonetheless, the elections will come during a state of emergency that has brought mass purges of political opponents and a severe crackdown on dissent that has eliminated many independent or opposition news sources and made TURKEY the world’s biggest jailer of journalists. Therefore, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will most likely emerge with more than 50% of the popular vote to give him a first-round victory but he will most certainly dominate in a second round run-off. For this vote, a nationalist opposition party, MHP, also backs President Recep Tayyip Erdogan after the government changed laws to allow for election alliances. However, in my opinion, the governing AKP also definitely has the upper hand by calling snap elections by giving the opposition parties only weeks to select candidates, decide on a political strategy and get to non-stop campaigning. Not to mention, fears about the fairness and credibility of the vote have resurfaced by changes to the election laws even before the recent news that millions of TURKS will be receiving checks from the governing AKP only weeks before the election.
In regards to TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warning that TURKEY’s military will not stop trying to oust SYRIAN KURDISH fighters from SYRIA’s north and that TURKISH troops would move eastward into MANBIJ and other areas controlled by the U.S. backed KURDISH YPG which TURKEY considers to be terrorists regardless of what the U.S. or any other nation has to say about the KURDISH YPG, it is difficult to determine at this time whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will execute on this threat in the short-term or whether he will be open to negotiations with the KURDISH YPG via the U.S. However, unlike the case in AFRIN, the U.S. has troops based in MANBIJ and across the rest of the KURDISH region such that the U.S. is adamant that it will not withdraw its ground forces from MANBIJ under the presumption that TURKEY cannot attack the city of MANBIJ without running the risk of killing U.S. soldiers. Therefore, in my opinion, some kind of mutual agreement between TURKEY and the U.S. will likely determine the fate of MANBIJ in the near future. In addition, in my opinion, given the fact that the U.S. is retaining forces in other parts of the KURDISH region and is not planning on leaving anytime soon, TURKEY’s goal of invading the entire KURDISH region is unlikely to transpire in the short-term.
In my opinion, the U.S. will most likely be forced by TURKEY to facilitate a successful KURDISH YPG withdrawal to the east bank of the EUPHRATES as a concrete sign of goodwill and the U.S. abilities to control the KURDISH YPG. In regards to the leaders of three major players in SYRIA; RUSSIA, IRAN and TURKEY ending a summit with a commitment to achieving a lasting ceasefire in SYRIA, even as the future role of U.S. forces in SYRIA remains in doubt, everyone seems to agree with the overall principal that a SYRIAN peace deal followed by humanitarian aid is critical albeit the realities that the respective parties cannot seem to be able to agree on the details in terms of timing and logistics.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after over one year of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power.
However, KURDISH and IRAQI forces still need to be vigilant for ISIS reunions to launch attacks through small covert groups of suicide attackers. In my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Hider al-Abadi’s announcement of full liberation of IRAQI lands with an official declaration of an end of the war against ISIS is accurate in theory but not in practice as significant ISIS fighters are still hiding underground like rats. In my opinion, the shift in focus to the KURDISH PKK has come from intense pressure from TURKEY who has warned IRAQ that TURKEY will do what is necessary if IRAQI forces fail to clear the SINJAR area of KURDISH PKK militants. In my opinion, the KURDISH PKK made the right strategic move stating that it entered SINJAR in 2014 to help defend the YAZIDI people against ISIS such that the PKK fighters withdrew from SINJAR stating that the YAZIDI minority there did not face any security threat any more. However, the KURDISH PKK seem to still have the support of the KURDISH people of IRAQ who seem to share the KURDISH PKK sole objective of fighting for the rights of minorities. In my opinion, the KURDISH PKK have distinctly made it clear that they will fight as long as the KURDISH minorities are not given the rights mentioned in the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights of the United Nations such that I am not surprised at all that the UN has not been willing to discuss the adding of the KURDISH PKK to the terrorist list of the United Nations. In my opinion, the women of IRAQ also tend to see the KURDISH PKK favourably as approximately 35% of the KURDISH PKK consists of women known as hard-core feminists who are fighting for their rights. In my opinion, it is not surprising to see women turning to the KURDISH PKK who recognize women as equals as opposed to an IRAQI society whereby women seem to grow up enslaved as the minute you are born as a girl, society seems to inhibit you.
However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
Meanwhile, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. In my opinion, this week’s KURDISH politicians continuing with their total withdrawal from the IRAQI political arena is not surprising after the IRAQI parliament approved the 2018 budget with a reduced share for the KURDISH autonomous region from 17% of the IRAQI budget as had been the case since the new IRAQI government was formed after the U.S. led invasion to the proportion of the KURDISH population that the IRAQI government estimates to be at 12.6%. In my opinion, the 17% demand by the KURDISH government is reasonable as at least 17% of IRAQI soil is covered with KURDISH blood such that the KURDS earned their 17% share through blood, sweat and tears as the KURDISH forces held back ISIS forces from conquering IRAQ in its entirety while IRAQI forces were scrambling and nowhere to be seen.
Meanwhile, in regards to this weeks announcement that the IRAQI journalist who threw his shoes at former U.S. President George W. Bush will be running for IRAQI parliament, I am not surprised as his protest during a visit by former U.S. President George W. Bush to Baghdad in 2008 made him a hero for many IRAQIS although he was also convicted of assaulting a foreign leader. Interestingly, the IRAQIS seem to remember that famous day with pride when Mr. Zaidi was working for al-Baghdadiya TV while attending a news conference between U.S. President George W. Bush and then Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. However, as the two leaders spoke, Mr. Zaidi stood up and threw both his shoes at U.S. President George W. Bush to show his anger at what he considered the injustice of the U.S. led invasion of IRAQ in 2003 along with the ensuing violence that followed the invasion. As a friendly reminder, Mr. Zaidi shouted that this was a goodbye kiss from the IRAQI people to the dog for the widows, the orphans and those who were killed in IRAQ. Amusingly enough, U.S. President George W. Bush managed to dodge the shoes and in an interview afterwards insisted that he did not harbour any ill feelings as it was amusing given that this shoe incident ranked up there as one of the weirdest incidences ever. However, this shoe throwing incident will go down in history as one of the most insulting ever against a U.S. President that could very well see the culprit elected to IRAQI parliament under the adage of what have you done for me lately.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, it finally does appear that ISIS has been defeated in DEIR AL-ZOR, AL-MAYADEEN and AL-BUKAMAL albeit violent clashes that sporadically continue to erupt around the town as ISIS finds itself trapped like rats underground only to be swept to the surface as the SAA goes through their respective sweeping operations across the outskirts of town. However, with the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declaring that they have completely wiped out ISIS in SYRIA, I expect that the remaining ISIS militants will be hiding in small towns and villages along the border with IRAQ in the SYRIAN dessert such that the remaining portion of no mans land along the Middle Euphrates River Valley will most likely represent ISIS’s last stand. In my opinion, ISIS still controls thousands of square kilometres of desert in the DEIR AL-ZOR, HOMS, IDLIB and DARAA regions such that although ISIS has been forced out of major SYRIAN cities, ISIS is still able to stage attacks on SAA and other rebel forces from these desert areas such that victory may have been achieved albeit ISIS still existing as a thorn in everybodies sides.
However, this week, I was not surprised to see TURKEY continuing to celebrate victory after TURKISH artillery decimated SYRIA’s AFRIN region out of pure infuriation over the announcement of U.S. plans to train a 30,000 border force in the area of northern SYRIA where KURDISH YPG dominated forces drove out ISIS fighters last year while TURKEY now promises to strangle the KURDISH terrorist force before it is ever able to come into existence. However, unlike the case in AFRIN, the U.S. has troops based in MANBIJ and across the rest of the KURDISH region such that the U.S. is adamant that it will not withdraw its ground forces from MANBIJ under the presumption that TURKEY cannot attack the city of MANBIJ without running the risk of killing U.S. soldiers. Therefore, in my opinion, some kind of mutual agreement between TURKEY and the U.S. will likely determine the fate of MANBIJ in the near future. In addition, in my opinion, given the fact that the U.S. is retaining forces in other parts of the KURDISH region and is not planning on leaving anytime soon, TURKEY’s goal of invading the entire KURDISH region is unlikely to transpire in the short-term. In my opinion, the U.S. will most likely be forced by TURKEY to facilitate a successful KURDISH YPG withdrawal to the east bank of the EUPHRATES as a concrete sign of goodwill and the U.S. abilities to control the KURDISH YPG. In my opinion, the only thing worse, from TURKEY’s perspective, than the U.S. backing its mortal KURDISH YPG enemy, is the U.S. building up and supporting its mortal KURDISH YPG enemy while being unable to control them such that TURKEY will likely allow the U.S. to take up the role as a mediator between TURKEY and the KURDISH YPG rather than down-the-line support for the KURDISH YPG that is motivating TURKEY to destabilize the entire KURDISH region.
In regards to the Syrian city of RAQQA, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires. In my opinion, now in its seventh year, the war in SYRIA has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society.
Nonetheless, this week, it was sad to see the war in SYRIA entering into a dangerous new phase as EASTERN GHOUTA under attack by SYRIAN Regime forces on so-called SYRIAN rebel terrorists is a human tragedy that is unfolding before everybodies eyes such that in my opinion the international community cannot let things keep going in this horrendous fashion. As a friendly reminder, in some of the worst bombardment campaigns of the war in SYRIA, over one thousand people have been killed and over five thousand have been injured in EASTERN GHOUTA, a Free Syrian Army (FSA) held enclave that is home to about 400,000 people that borders the SYRIAN capital of Damascus. In my opinion, President Bashar al-Assad wants to recapture EASTERN GHOUTA because it is so close to DAMASCUS, the capital of SYRIA, that it is possible for rebels to fire mortars into the heart of the capital. In my opinion, the alleged toxic bombing several weeks ago, using chemical weapons, of rebel-held DOUMA, in the EASTERN GHOUTA region killing dozens of people, including children, was deplorable to say the least. Therefore, U.S. President Donald Trump was forced to order the U.S. military, in conjunction with France and the United Kingdom, to launch strikes on SYRIA in retaliation for the suspected chemical weapons attack by the SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad.
Meanwhile, in regards to this weeks warning by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah that the SYRIAN civil war could be about to escalate and enter into a new phase, I believe that his warning coincides with mounting concerns worldwide about the risk of a wider war in the Middle East. In my opinion, tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN are causing the biggest concerns because IRAN has fought in SYRIA alongside SYRIAN President, Bashar al Assad such that IRAN is now present in SYRIA in a fashion that ISRAEL says is unacceptable. In my opinion, there is a greater likelihood than ever that a broader regional conflict erupts as all major players in the region are currently armed and dangerous such that a prolonged civil war that could erupt including SYRIA, IRAQ, TURKEY, U.S., ISRAEL, IRAN, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON, SAUDI ARABIA, YEMEN, JORDAN & RUSSIA such that all hell could very easily break loose if any one of these Parties perform some sort of provocative move. However, any escalation or military confrontation could lead to a civil war that could be costly for everyone because if all of the big players get directly involved, there could be a third and final world war once and for all. In my opinion, the trigger for a potential third and final world war would likely be triggered by ISRAEL and IRAN as such a confrontation could escalate quickly and trigger direct attacks inside both ISRAEL and IRAN that could also spill beyond Syria’s borders to LEBANON and IRAQ drawing in HEZBOLLAH fighters and Iranian-backed SHIA militias in Iraq.
In my opinion, the current situation in the Middle East depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential third and final world war that would likely be triggered by an ISRAEL and IRAN conflict, such that any confrontation could escalate quickly and trigger direct attacks inside both ISRAEL and IRAN, leading to a greater likelihood than ever before that a broader Middle East conflict erupts, as all major players in the region are currently armed and dangerous, such that a prolonged civil war could erupt including all the big players consisting of SYRIA, IRAQ, TURKEY, U.S., ISRAEL, IRAN, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON, SAUDI ARABIA, YEMEN, JORDAN & RUSSIA, such that all hell could very easily break loose if any one of these Parties perform some sort of provocative move, albeit the realities that any escalation or military confrontation could lead to a civil war that would be costly for everyone, if all of the big players get directly involved, such that there has never been nor will there ever be, an easy policy solution to the Middle East crisis, but it is evident that the conflict is getting worse on many levels and could spark an even broader Middle East crisis soon, such that all leaders across the globe must avoid the temptation to look away but rather should increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, minimize civilian casualties, prevent the further use of chemical weapons and alleviate the humanitarian crisis from a civil war spiralling out of control with no end in sight, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the Middle East.
In my opinion, as was seen recently with ISIS able to mount limited but nonetheless painful blows to various factions in SYRIA with shock and awe attacks in DEIR EZZOR, AL BUKAMAL and AL MAYADEEN, it is important to note that although ISIS’s caliphate no longer exists and the ISIS flag does not fly over territory, ISIS has not disappeared but rather ISIS has reverted to old terrorist tactics used before 2014. That is, attacks against security forces and civilians, often involving fake checkpoints, have centered on ISIS’s former strongholds of rugged rural areas known as ISIS strongholds for being hospitable for ISIS to hide out because of the rough terrain so that ISIS has been able to dig tunnels and store weapons, ammunition and bomb-making materials. Therefore, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, although ISIS was literally disappearing from the face of the map in SYRIA, new showdowns between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in the EASTERN GHOUTA region while TURKEY is hammering away at the KURDISH YPG in northern SYRIA only serves to fuel the re-emergence of ISIS as a dangerous player in SYRIA. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS such that this war could very well continue for years to come if RUSSIA is not given mediator powers to negotiate a deal between all Parties. In my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and utter madness.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 297” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while focusing on the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential third and final world war that would likely be triggered by an ISRAEL and IRAN conflict, leading to a greater likelihood than ever before that a broader MIDDLE EAST conflict erupts, as all major players in the region are currently armed and dangerous, such that a prolonged civil war could erupt including all the big players consisting of SYRIA, IRAQ, TURKEY, U.S., ISRAEL, IRAN, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON, SAUDI ARABIA, YEMEN, JORDAN & RUSSIA, such that all hell could very easily break loose if any one of these Parties perform some sort of provocative move, such that there has never been nor will there ever be, an easy policy solution to the MIDDLE EAST crisis, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, minimize civilian casualties, prevent the further use of chemical weapons and alleviate the humanitarian crisis from a civil war spiralling out of control with no end in sight, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST.
http://www.therockswebmarket.com/world-peace-lennon-ivan-style-part-297
ReplyDelete