In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 295” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the world has become centered on personal, financial and political interests as everybody makes decisions in the context of this interests based model and framework such that values, morals, principals and ethics seem to be secondary to the primary objective of applying the justice system that best serves beneficial interests, such that the righteous innocent Pastor Andrew Brunson from North Carolina who was in TURKEY promoting a CHRISTIAN mission, went before a TURKISH judge to enter his plea of not guilty to any wrongdoing although he currently faces upto 35 years in prison in TURKEY, based on accusations of espionage and the aiding of terrorist groups such as the KURDISH PKK and FETO, while the reality of the situation is that he is a fine gentleman and CHRISTIAN leader who is being persecuted in TURKEY for no reason other than political manoeuvring as he did not engage in any illegal activities other than spreading of the word of God, while TURKEY’s more aggressive rhetoric toward GREECE this week whereby TURKEY needs to reclaim 18 TURKISH islands currently occupied by GREECE seems to lend credence to GREECE’s depiction of TURKISH leadership as Sultans in a TURKISH country of authoritarian rule that produces instability and tension in the region.
TURKEY News
As a friendly reminder, TURKEY has been on the defense ever since an internal military “Coup D’État” failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP focused their attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say that the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants.
During the week ending on Sunday, April 22, 2018, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures although TURKEY’s crushing of the free press, destruction of the freedom of speech and restrictions to the right to peaceful demonstrations seems to be punishing the TURKISH economy as high inflation in TURKEY and a surge in foreign borrowing by TURKISH banks could plunge TURKEY into an economic crisis during 2018. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKISH forces and their Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel allies continued to celebrate the capture of AFRIN as the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) did not intervene so that TURKEY was in essence given the informal approval to crush the SYRIAN KURDISH region. However, at least 150,000 people have been displaced in AFRIN with estimates of the total number of civilian deaths at over 200 since TURKEY began its aggression in January of 2018 of the KURDISH region on the border between SYRIA and TURKEY under TURKEY’s Operation Olive Branch. Meanwhile this week, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan surprised the TURKISH people themselves by calling early elections for June in a move that could reinforce his grip on power a year ahead of schedule. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that parliamentary and presidential elections, originally scheduled for November of 2019 will now be held on June 24 which means that a new political system that will increase the powers of the President will take effect a year early. In summary, TURKEY is switching from a parliamentary to a presidential system abolishing the office of the prime minister and decreasing the powers of the parliament in conformance with a narrowly won referendum last year such that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would be able to run for two five-year terms on top of his current term. It is important to note that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has ruled Turkey since 2003 spoke of the need for the new system to be implemented quickly in order to deal with numerous challenges ahead for TURKEY including TURKEY’s fight against KURDISH forces in both SYRIA and IRAQ. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that incidents of historic importance centered in SYRIA and IRAQ have made it imperative for TURKEY to overcome uncertainties quickly as a sign that TURKEY once again fears the aspirations of the KURDISH people for independence in both countries. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made it clear that switching to a new system of government has increasingly gained urgency so that decisions regarding TURKEY’s future can be made and implemented with greater strength.
In addition, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that TURKEY’s military will not stop trying to oust SYRIAN KURDISH fighters from SYRIA’s north with the ultimate goal of moving eastward into MANBIJ and other areas controlled by the U.S. backed KURDISH YPG which TURKEY considers to be terrorists regardless of what the U.S. or any other nation has to say about the KURDISH YPG. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated that TURKEY would not stop until TURKEY has made safe all areas currently controlled by the KURDISH YPG starting with MANBIJ. However, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also stressed that TURKEY’s fight against the KURDISH YPG would not distract from efforts to eliminate the remnants of ISIS in SYRIA. Nonetheless, U.S. President Donald Trump announced his intent to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria as soon as the fight against ISIS is complete while stating that the U.S. will consult with groups of U.S. allies and coordinate with others in SYRIA in order to decide the U.S. next steps after the completion of the U.S. mission of defeat of ISIS in SYRIA while TURKEY continues to remain one of the allies that should be involved in these U.S. consultations. While the U.S. continues to describe its decision to work with the KURDISH YPG as a tactical, short-term approach to the defeat of ISIS, the U.S. seems to still desire to maintain relations with its NATO ally TURKEY on the basis that a Syria that is stabilized along terms dictated by IRAN goes against U.S. interests in the region. Therefore, TURKEY as both a NATO ally and a country that has lines of communication open with IRAN, still seems to be the U.S. partner in countering IRANIAN influence when the battle against ISIS comes to a formal ending for the U.S.
Meanwhile, the leaders of three major players in SYRIA, RUSSIA, IRAN and TURKEY ended a summit with a commitment to achieving a lasting ceasefire in SYRIA, even as the future role of U.S. forces in SYRIA remains in doubt. The meeting in the TURKISH capital of ANKARA brought together two of SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad’s strongest supporters, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of TURKEY, as the primary backer of the opposition Free Syrian Army (FSA). Notably absent from the talks were representatives from SYRIA itself and from the U.S., another important player in the SYRIAN conflict. Ironically, TURKEY further ignored the U.S. this week as Pastor Andrew Brunson from North Carolina went before a TURKISH judge to enter his plea of not guilty to any wrongdoing although he currently faces upto 35 years in prison. In summary, Pastor Andrew Brunson was detained in the aftermath of the 2016 failed “Coup D’État” attempt in TURKEY for alleged links to the outlawed KURDISH PKK as well as the Fethullahist Terrorist Organization (FETO) led by U.S. based cleric Fethullah Gulen. Ironically, Pastor Andrew Brunson clearly stated that he does not accept any of the allegations or accusations as he did not engage in any illegal activities and did not have any relations with anyone engaged in such activities as a Christian pastor whose aims are different from both the KURDISH PKK and FETO. In another strange manoeuvring in TURKEY this week, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP Party seem to be embarking on an ever more aggressive rhetoric toward GREECE while the largest opposition party now headed by Kemal Kilicdaroglu claims that TURKEY needs to reclaim 18 TURKISH islands currently occupied by GREECE. Ironically, TURKEY’s behaviour seems to have resulted in the only point of agreement between the actual GREEK government and the GREEK opposition that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is behaving like a sultan in a TURKISH country of authoritarian rule that produces instability and tension in the region.
IRAQ News
As a friendly reminder, IRAQI and ALLIED forces have pushed ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces first liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety subsequent to ALLIANCE forces seizing complete control of western MOSUL from ISIS. It is important to note that IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS to the point of ISIS relinquishing control of MOSUL as the world watched the scenes of jubilation as IRAQI forces liberated the OLD MOSUL City from ISIS. However, with 40,000 plus dead in the battle to take back OLD MOSUL City from ISIS, the scale of civilian casualties reveals a massacre with many bodies still buried under the rubble and the level of human suffering immense. However, many ISIS militias have taken to the hills and began to wage a classic rural guerrilla war, while some ISIS sleeper cells have also been activated at the border of Baghdad, the IRAQI capital. Thus, ISIS has now returned to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group as the Islamic State of IRAQ and SYRIA can no longer call itself a state as ISIS has lost all capacity to act as a state but rather ISIS now stands exposed as a GANGSTER sham.
Meanwhile, TURKEY withdrew from launching a ground operation against KURDISH PKK militants in the IRAQI district of SINJAR as the PKK chose to withdraw from the area on their own in order to avert an imminent TURKISH attack on SINJAR. As a friendly reminder, the KURDISH PKK has fought a bloody war against TURKISH forces for over three decades with the KURDISH PKK hardline tactics drawing international condemnation as fighting has largely been concentrated in IRAQ’s southeast region which has a large KURDISH community who are seeking independence or autonomy. The PKK was forced to leave after threats and pressure from TURKEY on IRAQ whereby TURKEY clearly stated that TURKEY might enter IRAQ at any time to strike the KURDISH PKK which TURKEY views as a terrorist organization while the YAZIDI view TURKEY as their saviours from ISIS. However, the KURDISH PKK seem to be fighting back as the TURKISH invasion attack on BRADOST seems to have backfired as nineteen TURKISH soldiers were killed in this area of IRAQI KURDISTAN. Nonetheless, TURKISH artillery shelled several places in the BRADOST area in the northeastern province of ERBIL including the KHUWAKURK and the MOUNT KITKIN MIGHARA areas. In addition, TURKISH warplanes shelled several other places where fighters from the KURDISH PKK launched a number of missiles at some TURKISH observation points in the BRADOST area.
As a friendly reminder, the KURDS still consider the September 25 referendum victory as the culmination of decades of struggle for a KURDISH state of their own although the IRAQI government has clearly stated that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. However, after the votes were tallied and the referendum passed with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, Iraq’s top SHIITE cleric out right rejected the outcome of KURDISTAN’s independence vote despite the overwhelming 92% voting in favour of separating from IRAQ. Subsequently, IRAQI forces along with IRANIAN trained paramilitaries deployed heavy weaponry build up in KIRKUK, the jewel of the proposed future KURDISTAN state enabling IRAQI forces to take control of all major areas of KIRKUK province from KURDISH YPG fighters. In particular, IRAQI forces took ALTON KUPRI, the oil-rich province of KURDISTAN as rocket; artillery and heavy machine-gun fire erupted in the region.
Subsequently, IRAQI Kurdish authorities stated that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession. However, the KURDS also stated that this decision must become a basis for starting an inclusive national dialogue between KURDISTAN and IRAQ to resolve all disputes through implementation of all constitutional articles and in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution because all elements of the IRAQI Constitution must be respected in order to secure the unity of IRAQ. Meanwhile, this week, KURDISH politicians continued to boycott IRAQI parliament with relentless protests at the reduction of KURDISTAN’s share from 17% to nearly 12% of the IRAQI parliament approved 2018 budget. Further, highlighting the division was IRAQ accusing KURDISTAN of corruption in handling oil exports from fields under the KURDISTAN region’s control while IRAQ also went so far as to suggest that revenues could be sufficient to satisfy KURDISTAN expenses otherwise which the KURDISTAN government obviously refuted. Meanwhile, this week, three ISIS members were killed in confrontations with IRAQI forces southwest of KIRKUK as armed confrontations occurred between the IRAQI Federal Police and IRAQI Popular Mobilization Forces against ISIS members in the AL-KHADRA village southwest of KIRKUK. Meanwhile, IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi vowed to chase ISIS militants out of IRAQ and the KURDISH region while vowing to deliver more victories over the remaining covert elements of the ISIS group although acknowledging that the mission would not be easy, another miracle of eliminating all of the ISIS sleeper cells is possible.
SYRIA News
As a friendly reminder, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH have made remarkable progress in the DEIR AL-ZOR region over the last several months liberating most of the province that was previously occupied by ISIS. Most recently, SAA units have made their way across several kilometers of territory south of the provincial capital of DEIR AL-ZOR striking ISIS in AL-MAYADEEN, ISIS’s new de facto capital in SYRIA. Therefore, the Russian Defence Ministry now estimates that the ISIS terrorist group controls less than five per cent of SYRIA after losing large swathes of territory to the SDF opposition fighters; the U.S. led coalition, the SAA and Russian allied forces. However, ISIS still controls several towns along the eastern and western banks of the EUPHRATES River. Among the occupied areas still under ISIS control are a group of towns that are located along the EUPHRATES River Valley including AL-ASHARAH, ABU HAMMAM, HAJEEN, AL-JALA and SOUSAH. However, the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declared that they have completely wiped out ISIS in Syria.
Meanwhile, this week, TURKEY continued to celebrate victory after artillery hammered SYRIA’s AFRIN region with air power, artillery and ground troops as the KURDISH YPG chose to withdraw 10,000 KURDISH YPG militants after more than 1,500 were killed by TURKISH troops in the AFRIN offensive. Ironically, following TURKEY’s conquest of KURDISH AFRIN, TURKEY has repeatedly said that it intends to capture the city of MANBIJ from the KURDISH YPG next as TURKEY claims that it will conquer all territories east of AFRIN, all the way to the Iraqi border. Thus, TURKEY will pressure the U.S. to facilitate a peaceful withdrawal of the KURDISH YPG from MANBIJ in the coming weeks although the northwestern province of IDLIB, south of AFRIN, will likely be the TURKISH military’s next area of operation in SYRIA. As a friendly reminder, MANBIJ is an ARAB majority city captured by the KURDISH YPG led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) from ISIS in August of 2016 with U.S. air support. However, prior to that offensive, the U.S. promised TURKEY that only a small KURDISH YPG force would participate in the operation and that they would not remain in MANBIJ following the removal of ISIS. Nonetheless, more than eighteen months later, TURKEY wants to see this promise fulfilled and will likely push to reach an agreement with the U.S. in MANBIJ.
As a friendly reminder, after U.S. backed fighters had surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA, they finally managed to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. Fighters of the U.S. backed, KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) punched their way through ISIS lines in RAQQA city as KURDISH forces literally shot their way through the streets of RAQQA, concentrating fire on ISIS positions hidden in the urban ruin of RAQQA city while ISIS fought back hard. Meanwhile, witnesses of the aftermath of the battle for RAQQA duly noted that the victory celebrations by KURDISH forces felt muted as there were literally no civilians left in RAQQA such that it was the celebration of the liberation of a ghost town. However, Syrians hoping to return home to RAQQA now that RAQQA has been liberated from ISIS are being told to wait indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby some have already taken their toll in terms of human casualties.
Nonetheless, the current SYRIAN government under the control of President Bashar al-Assad stated that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA, which was liberated from ISIS by the U.S. backed and KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In particular, the existing SYRIAN regime stated that both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime. Meanwhile, this week, fighting has raged on in EASTERN GHOUTA as the death toll has slowly but steadily risen to over 1,500 in the last month with reports of at least 100 this week alone as RUSSIA formally stated that the massive RUSSIAN backed SYRIAN military offensive is almost over with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels now cornered in just a single town after being forced to abandon the greater part of the EASTERN GHOUTA region. Meanwhile last week, dozens of people were killed, including children, during the alleged toxic bombing, using chemical weapons, of rebel-held DOUMA, in the EASTERN GHOUTA region. The alleged chemical attacks obviously triggered international condemnation as BRITISH Prime Minister Theresa May agreed with her U.S. and French counterparts consisting of Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron respectively that the international community needs to respond accordingly. Not surprisingly, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the U.S. military, in conjunction with France and the United Kingdom, to launch strikes on SYRIA in retaliation for the suspected chemical weapons attack by the SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad. However, U.S., British and French missile strikes had a limited impact on SYRIAN president Bashar al-Assad’s ability to carry out chemical weapons attacks in the future even though U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted Mission Accomplished after the attacks claiming that they had successfully struck the heart of SYRIA’s chemical weapons program. In summary, the allied airstrikes likely set back President Bashar al-Assad’s production of saran gas after the strike of around 105 missiles on three targets consisting of chemical weapons storage and research facilities near Damascus and Homs that took nearly a full week to plan were successfully executed in less than five minutes once the airplanes were hovering over the strategic locations.
However, with SYRIA once again finding itself embroiled in civil war between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in the EASTERN GHOUTA region while TURKEY is hammering away at the KURDISH YPG in northern SYRIA, ISIS seems to be able to mount limited but nonetheless painful blows to various factions in SYRIA with shock and awe attacks. It is important to note that after declaring that ISIS had been militarily defeated, ISIS has rapidly transformed back into a terrorist network and shows no sign of ending its campaign of terrorist attacks. That is, although ISIS’s caliphate no longer exists and the ISIS flag does not fly over territory, ISIS has not disappeared but rather ISIS has reverted to old terrorist tactics used before 2014.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the KURDS as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis.
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures while TURKISH forces and their Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel allies celebrated the capture of AFRIN in what from the KURDISH perspective appears to have been a massacre. In my opinion, the KURDISH YPG had little choice but to abandon AFRIN as the KURDISH YPG militants decided not to make a fight until death stand against TURKEY as around 10,000 KURDISH YPG militants quickly withdrew in order to be alive to fight against TURKEY elsewhere after more that 1,500 KURDISH YPG fighters had been killed in the AFRIN offensive by TURKEY whose sheer brute military strength cannot be denied. Meanwhile, in my opinion, this week’s calling of early elections for June by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that surprised the TURKISH people themselves in a move that could reinforce his grip on power a year ahead of schedule is surprising but not unusual given that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has demonstrated over the last several months that he is a master poker player ready, willing and able to play the hand that best serves his personal, financial and political interests. In my opinion, the move will allow the President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who loves authoritarian tendencies to capitalize on nationalist sentiment that is at all time highs following the successful military campaign to drive out SYRIAN KURDISH forces from AFRIN in northeast Syria while also heading warning signs that the TURKISH economy could be degenerating. In my opinion, the move by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also puts opposition parties many of which have not yet decided who to put forward as their President at a distinct competitive disadvantage. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is making a strategic move with his timing of holding elections one year sooner than initially anticipated because he wants to take advantage of a number of developments that are currently in his favour. That is, Russia might soon force TURKEY to pull out of AFRIN and the TURKISH economy could start to crumble such that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to move forward with elections before the negative news starts transpiring. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made a slew of strategic decisions prior to announcing upcoming elections to insure that his governing AKP gets the 51% majority needed to be re-elected in the first round including changing electoral laws that will allow government employees to monitor ballot boxes while contemporaneously reducing independent monitoring of the polls. Ironically, the announcement of elections also follows the sale of TURKEY’s largest media group, Dogan Holding, to a group that is close to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan such that approximately 90% of the TURKEY’s media now has links to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
In regards to TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warning that TURKEY’s military will not stop trying to oust SYRIAN KURDISH fighters from SYRIA’s north and that TURKISH troops would move eastward into MANBIJ and other areas controlled by the U.S. backed KURDISH YPG which TURKEY considers to be terrorists regardless of what the U.S. or any other nation has to say about the KURDISH YPG, it is difficult to determine at this time whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will execute on this threat in the short-term or whether he will be open to negotiations with the KURDISH YPG via the U.S. However, unlike the case in AFRIN, the U.S. has troops based in MANBIJ and across the rest of the KURDISH region such that the U.S. is adamant that it will not withdraw its ground forces from MANBIJ under the presumption that TURKEY cannot attack the city of MANBIJ without running the risk of killing U.S. soldiers. Therefore, in my opinion, some kind of mutual agreement between TURKEY and the U.S. will likely determine the fate of MANBIJ in the near future. In addition, in my opinion, given the fact that the U.S. is retaining forces in other parts of the KURDISH region and is not planning on leaving anytime soon, TURKEY’s goal of invading the entire KURDISH region is unlikely to transpire in the short-term. In my opinion, the U.S. will most likely be forced by TURKEY to facilitate a successful KURDISH YPG withdrawal to the east bank of the EUPHRATES as a concrete sign of goodwill and the U.S. abilities to control the KURDISH YPG. In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of his intent to withdraw U.S. troops from SYRIA as soon as the fight against ISIS is complete while stating that the U.S. will consult with groups of U.S. allies including TURKEY in order to decide the U.S. next steps after the completion of the U.S. mission of defeat of ISIS in SYRIA clearly sends the message to TURKEY that the U.S. wants to resolve differences as concerns the KURDISH YPG via negotiations.
In regards to the leaders of three major players in SYRIA; RUSSIA, IRAN and TURKEY ending a summit with a commitment to achieving a lasting ceasefire in SYRIA, even as the future role of U.S. forces in SYRIA remains in doubt, everyone seems to agree with the overall principal that a SYRIAN peace deal followed by humanitarian aid is critical albeit the realities that the respective parties cannot seem to be able to agree on the details in terms of timing and logistics. In regards to TURKEY further ignoring the U.S. this week as Pastor Andrew Brunson from North Carolina went before a TURKISH judge to enter his plea of not guilty to any wrongdoing although he currently faces upto 35 years in prison, I fully support Pastor Andrew Brunson that he did not engage in any illegal activities and did not have any relations with anyone engaged in such activities as a Christian pastor whose aims are different from both the KURDISH PKK and FETO. In my opinion, the U.S. should make good on their warnings to TURKEY that there will be punitive consequences if TURKEY does not reverse the charges or acquit Pastor Andrew Brunson on all accusations of espionage and aiding of terrorist groups. In my opinion, President Donald Trump’s assessment is accurate that Pastor Andrew Brunson is a fine gentleman and Christian leader who is being persecuted in TURKEY for no reason whereby TURKEY calls Pastor Andrew Brunson a Spy although there is no evidence such that Pastor Andrew Brunson should be allowed to return home to his beautiful family where he belongs. In regards to TURKEY’s more aggressive rhetoric toward GREECE this week whereby TURKEY needs to reclaim 18 TURKISH islands currently occupied by GREECE I tend to agree with the GREEKS that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is behaving like a sultan in a TURKISH country of authoritarian rule that produces instability and tension in the region. However, aggressive rhetoric does not constitute an imminent threat such that GREECE should abstain from any provocative military manoeuvring and in essence wait to see if TURKEY’s rhetoric will actually transpire into any form of aggressive behaviours as it is no secret that there is no love lost between the GREEKS and TURKS.
The above series of events in TURKEY perfectly depict the new geopolitical realities whereby the world has become centered on personal, financial and political interests as everybody makes decisions in the context of this interests based model and framework such that values, morals, principals and ethics seem to be secondary to the primary objective of applying the justice system that best serves beneficial interests, such that the righteous innocent Pastor Andrew Brunson from North Carolina who was in TURKEY promoting a CHRISTIAN mission, went before a TURKISH judge to enter his plea of not guilty to any wrongdoing although he currently faces upto 35 years in prison in TURKEY, based on accusations of espionage and the aiding of terrorist groups such as the KURDISH PKK and FETO, while the reality of the situation is that he is a fine gentleman and CHRISTIAN leader who is being persecuted in TURKEY for no reason other than political manoeuvring as he did not engage in any illegal activities other than spreading of the word of God, while TURKEY’s more aggressive rhetoric toward GREECE this week whereby TURKEY needs to reclaim 18 TURKISH islands currently occupied by GREECE seems to lend credence to GREECE’s depiction of TURKISH leadership as Sultans in a TURKISH country of authoritarian rule that produces instability and tension in the region, while aggressive rhetoric does not constitute an imminent threat such that GREECE should abstain from any provocative military manoeuvring, and in essence wait to see if TURKEY’s rhetoric will actually transpire into any form of aggressive behaviours, as it is no secret that there is no love lost between the GREEKS and TURKS.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after over one year of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power.
However, KURDISH and IRAQI forces still need to be vigilant for ISIS reunions to launch attacks through small covert groups of suicide attackers. In my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Hider al-Abadi’s announcement of full liberation of IRAQI lands with an official declaration of an end of the war against ISIS is accurate in theory but not in practice as significant ISIS fighters are still hiding underground like rats. In my opinion, the shift in focus to the KURDISH PKK has come from intense pressure from TURKEY who has warned IRAQ that TURKEY will do what is necessary if IRAQI forces fail to clear the SINJAR area of KURDISH PKK militants. In my opinion, the KURDISH PKK made the right strategic move stating that it entered SINJAR in 2014 to help defend the YAZIDI people against ISIS such that the PKK fighters withdrew from SINJAR stating that the YAZIDI minority there did not face any security threat any more. Nonetheless, in my opinion, TURKEY elsewhere in northern IRAQ and southern TURKEY still hammered the KURDISH PKK this week as TURKEY was looking to send the message to the KURDISH PKK that they will no longer be allowed to roam around freely but rather must return to a confined, discreet and low-key existence. However, this week TURKEY suffered collateral damage as the KURDISH PKK seem to be fighting back as the TURKISH invasion attack on BRADOST seems to have backfired as nineteen TURKISH soldiers were killed in this area of IRAQI KURDISTAN. In my opinion, the TURKISH military may have entered 19 kilometers into the KURDISTAN Region while creating three main headquarters and up to 15 small military bases inside the KURDISTAN Region but they are still poorly equipped to fight against the KURDISH PKK that have adopted traditional guerrilla warfare technique. That is, the KURDISH PKK fight like wolves in packs with shock and awe attacks by sneaking up from out of the surrounding hills with quick and effective ambush assaults before once again disappearing into the hills. Therefore, although the KURDISH PKK cannot defeat the TURKISH military might, the KURDISH PKK are able to mount limited retaliatory strikes to continue to be a thorn in TURKEY’s side as the KURDISH PKK military objective is merely to not completely loose such that TURKEY will have a difficult time eradicating the KURDISH PKK from the mountainous regions of KURDISTAN.
However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
Meanwhile, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. In my opinion, this week’s KURDISH politicians continuing with their total withdrawal from the IRAQI political arena is not surprising after the IRAQI parliament approved the 2018 budget with a reduced share for the KURDISH autonomous region from 17% of the IRAQI budget as had been the case since the new IRAQI government was formed after the U.S. led invasion to the proportion of the KURDISH population that the IRAQI government estimates to be at 12.6%. In my opinion, the 17% demand by the KURDISH government is reasonable as at least 17% of IRAQI soil is covered with KURDISH blood such that the KURDS earned their 17% share through blood, sweat and tears as the KURDISH forces held back ISIS forces from conquering IRAQ in its entirety while IRAQI forces were scrambling and nowhere to be seen.
Nonetheless, in regards to this weeks killing of three ISIS members in confrontations with IRAQI forces southwest of KIRKUK, the KURDISH YPG made the right strategic decision by avoiding the return of KURDISH YPG forces to the disputed regions on a temporary basis and thus leaving the military operations against ISIS to the IRAQI security forces. In my opinion, ISIS will continue to launch sporadic attacks across IRAQ against any opposition troops caught sleeping such that in my opinion the ISIS militant group still poses a significant security threat against stability in IRAQ. Therefore, it is better for the IRAQI forces to be proactive and carry out operations perpetually in search for the dormant cells of ISIS in KIRKUK because as long as ISIS is hiding in the vicinity, they will be hiding and waiting patiently for opportunities to carry out terrorist strikes. Meanwhile, in regards to IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi vowing to chase ISIS militants out of IRAQ and the KURDISH region, I believe that the task of destroying all remaining covert elements of the ISIS group is virtually impossible such that the only viable long-term sustainable solution is perpetual military monitoring of ISIS hot spots with quick terminal blows instantaneously with any ISIS terrorist attacks. In my opinion, the IRAQI military needs to develop effective monitoring systems to insure quick responses to any terrorist attacks launched by ISIS on the basis that the magnitude of the attacks generally has a direct relationship with the amount of time ISIS is free to operate in the open such that the only effective time limiting technique is terminal blows contemporaneously at moment ISIS militants appear on radar screens.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, it finally does appear that ISIS has been defeated in DEIR AL-ZOR, AL-MAYADEEN and AL-BUKAMAL albeit violent clashes that sporadically continue to erupt around the town as ISIS finds itself trapped like rats underground only to be swept to the surface as the SAA goes through their respective sweeping operations across the outskirts of town. However, with the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declaring that they have completely wiped out ISIS in SYRIA, I expect that the remaining ISIS militants will be hiding in small towns and villages along the border with IRAQ in the SYRIAN dessert such that the remaining portion of no mans land along the Middle Euphrates River Valley will most likely represent ISIS’s last stand. In my opinion, ISIS still controls thousands of square kilometres of desert in the DEIR AL-ZOR, HOMS, IDLIB and DARAA regions such that although ISIS has been forced out of major SYRIAN cities, ISIS is still able to stage attacks on SAA and other rebel forces from these desert areas such that victory may have been achieved albeit ISIS still existing as a thorn in everybodies sides.
However, this week, I was not surprised to see TURKEY continuing to celebrate victory after TURKISH artillery decimated SYRIA’s AFRIN region out of pure infuriation over the announcement of U.S. plans to train a 30,000 border force in the area of northern SYRIA where KURDISH YPG dominated forces drove out ISIS fighters last year while TURKEY now promises to strangle the KURDISH terrorist force before it is ever able to come into existence. However, unlike the case in AFRIN, the U.S. has troops based in MANBIJ and across the rest of the KURDISH region such that the U.S. is adamant that it will not withdraw its ground forces from MANBIJ under the presumption that TURKEY cannot attack the city of MANBIJ without running the risk of killing U.S. soldiers. Therefore, in my opinion, some kind of mutual agreement between TURKEY and the U.S. will likely determine the fate of MANBIJ in the near future. In addition, in my opinion, given the fact that the U.S. is retaining forces in other parts of the KURDISH region and is not planning on leaving anytime soon, TURKEY’s goal of invading the entire KURDISH region is unlikely to transpire in the short-term. In my opinion, the U.S. will most likely be forced by TURKEY to facilitate a successful KURDISH YPG withdrawal to the east bank of the EUPHRATES as a concrete sign of goodwill and the U.S. abilities to control the KURDISH YPG. In my opinion, the only thing worse, from TURKEY’s perspective, than the U.S. backing its mortal KURDISH YPG enemy, is the U.S. building up and supporting its mortal KURDISH YPG enemy while being unable to control them such that TURKEY will likely allow the U.S. to take up the role as a mediator between TURKEY and the KURDISH YPG rather than down-the-line support for the KURDISH YPG that is motivating TURKEY to destabilize the entire KURDISH region.
In regards to the Syrian city of RAQQA, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires. In my opinion, now in its seventh year, the war in SYRIA has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society.
Nonetheless, this week, it was sad to see the war in SYRIA entering into a dangerous new phase as EASTERN GHOUTA under attack by SYRIAN Regime forces on so-called SYRIAN rebel terrorists is a human tragedy that is unfolding before everybodies eyes such that in my opinion the international community cannot let things keep going in this horrendous fashion. As a friendly reminder, in some of the worst bombardment campaigns of the war in SYRIA, over one thousand people have been killed and over five thousand have been injured in EASTERN GHOUTA, a Free Syrian Army (FSA) held enclave that is home to about 400,000 people that borders the SYRIAN capital of Damascus. In my opinion, President Bashar al-Assad wants to recapture EASTERN GHOUTA because it is so close to DAMASCUS, the capital of SYRIA, that it is possible for rebels to fire mortars into the heart of the capital. In my opinion, last week’s alleged toxic bombing, using chemical weapons, of rebel-held DOUMA, in the EASTERN GHOUTA region killing dozens of people, including children, was deplorable to say the least. In my opinion, it has become clear that RUSSIA will do what it takes to protect SYRIA regardless of the compelling evidence of the chemical weapons crimes committed and to shut down any further investigations or discussions about those crimes. Therefore, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the U.S. military, in conjunction with France and the United Kingdom, to launch strikes on SYRIA in retaliation for the suspected chemical weapons attack by the SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad. In my opinion, the U.S., British and French missile strikes were more symbolic in nature than anything else as they had a limited impact on SYRIAN president Bashar al-Assad’s ability to carry out chemical weapons attacks in the future. In my opinion, President Bashar al-Assad has remained in power after all of the atrocities of the seven plus year civil war because he has a very shrewd entourage both within SYRIA and abroad, namely from IRAN and RUSSIA such that the SYRIAN regime will likely continue researching and developing chemical weapons for potential future use as SYRIA continues to retain a residual capability to produce chemical weapons as the chemical weapons are spread throughout SYRIA.
In my opinion, as was seen recently with ISIS able to mount limited but nonetheless painful blows to various factions in SYRIA with shock and awe attacks in DEIR EZZOR, AL BUKAMAL and AL MAYADEEN, it is important to note that although ISIS’s caliphate no longer exists and the ISIS flag does not fly over territory, ISIS has not disappeared but rather ISIS has reverted to old terrorist tactics used before 2014. That is, attacks against security forces and civilians, often involving fake checkpoints, have centered on ISIS’s former strongholds of rugged rural areas known as ISIS strongholds for being hospitable for ISIS to hide out because of the rough terrain so that ISIS has been able to dig tunnels and store weapons, ammunition and bomb-making materials. Therefore, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, although ISIS was literally disappearing from the face of the map in SYRIA, new showdowns between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in the EASTERN GHOUTA region while TURKEY is hammering away at the KURDISH YPG in northern SYRIA only serves to fuel the re-emergence of ISIS as a dangerous player in SYRIA. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS such that this war could very well continue for years to come if RUSSIA is not given mediator powers to negotiate a deal between all Parties. In my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and utter madness.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 295” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the world has become centered on personal, financial and political interests as everybody makes decisions in the context of this interests based model and framework such that values, morals, principals and ethics seem to be secondary to the primary objective of applying the justice system that best serves beneficial interests, such that the righteous innocent Pastor Andrew Brunson from North Carolina who was in TURKEY promoting a CHRISTIAN mission, went before a TURKISH judge to enter his plea of not guilty to any wrongdoing although he currently faces upto 35 years in prison in TURKEY, based on accusations of espionage and the aiding of terrorist groups such as the KURDISH PKK and FETO, while the reality of the situation is that he is a fine gentleman and CHRISTIAN leader who is being persecuted in TURKEY for no reason other than political manoeuvring as he did not engage in any illegal activities other than spreading of the word of God, while TURKEY’s more aggressive rhetoric toward GREECE this week whereby TURKEY needs to reclaim 18 TURKISH islands currently occupied by GREECE seems to lend credence to GREECE’s depiction of TURKISH leadership as Sultans in a TURKISH country of authoritarian rule that produces instability and tension in the region.
http://www.therockswebmarket.com/world-peace-lennon-ivan-style-part-295
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