In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 275” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while avoiding situations similar to the state-owned bank in TURKEY exposed in a NEW YORK trial this week whereby it appears that billion-dollar money laundering networks were set-up to enable IRAN to access global markets and to evade sanctions illustrating the new geopolitical realities whereby only the paper trail and substantive evidence will count that nobody can defend while everybody denies everything else vehemently until the very end such that swearing an oath of faith to tell the truth has now become in practice worthless and irrelevant as nothing more than circumstantial evidence as everybody fights to preserve, protect and promote their respective personal, financial and political interests and reputations refusing to cede or bend.
TURKEY News
During the week ending on Sunday, December 3, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP focused their attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants.
Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures although TURKEY’s crushing of the free press, destruction of the freedom of speech and restrictions to the right to peaceful demonstrations seems to be punishing the TURKISH economy as high inflation in TURKEY and a surge in foreign borrowing by TURKISH banks could plunge TURKEY into an economic crisis as soon as 2018. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continue to largely ignore the U.S., the E.U. and all other Western allies as was evident this week in NEW YORK whereby businessman Reza Zarrab described money laundering networks set-up to enable IRAN to access global markets. It appears that a scheme was set-up by IRAN to evade sanctions through a state-owned bank in TURKEY whereby Reza Zarrab claims that the TURKISH President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan was well aware of the billion-dollar operation. In a case that has strained relations between TURKEY and the U.S., Reza Zarrab described an extensive money-laundering network that allowed IRAN access to international markets from 2010 to 2015 in violation of sanctions over its nuclear programme. Reza Zarrab told jurors that President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan had personally authorised a transaction on behalf of IRAN. Furthermore, Reza Zarrab testified that he had bribed the then TURKISH economy minister Zafer Caglayan and the former head of state-owned HALKBANK. Ironically, the TURKISH government had repeatedly raised Reza Zarrab’s case with the U.S. demanding his release before the plea deal was made public. Furthermore, TURKISH officials have in recent weeks condemned the trial as a plot engineered by Fethullah Gulen, the Pennsylvania-based cleric accused by the TURKISH government of orchestrating the failed “Coup D’État” attempt of last year. Meanwhile, Bekir Bozdag, the TURKISH deputy prime minister described the trial as a theatre and a plot against TURKEY and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan such that justice could not be expected while President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was quoted by CNN TURKEY stating that TURKEY did not violate U.S. sanctions against IRAN and did nothing wrong.
IRAQ News
Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and ALLIED forces have pushed ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces first liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety subsequent to ALLIANCE forces seizing complete control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS. It is important to note that IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS to the point of ISIS relinquishing control of MOSUL as the world watched the scenes of jubilation as IRAQI forces liberated the OLD MOSUL City from ISIS. However, with 40,000 plus dead in the battle to take back OLD MOSUL City from ISIS, the scale of civilian casualties reveals a massacre with many bodies still buried under the rubble and the level of human suffering immense. However, many ISIS militias have taken to the hills and began to wage a classic rural guerrilla war, while some ISIS sleeper cells have also been activated at the border of Baghdad, the IRAQI capital. Thus, ISIS has now returned to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group as the Islamic State of IRAQ and SYRIA can no longer call itself a state as ISIS has lost all capacity to act as a state but rather ISIS now stands exposed as a GANGSTER sham.
On the heels of the IRAQI military victory in MOSUL, IRAQI forces have broken through ISIS’s defences inside the northern city of TAL AFAR as IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared victory over ISIS. Furthermore, IRAQ’s Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi claims that the IRAQI military has retaken HAWIJA and AL-QAIM, the main towns in one of the last two enclaves of ISIS in the country although a few villages east of the town of HAWIJA are believed to still be under ISIS control. In addition, IRAQI pro-government forces commenced their long awaited operation to completely destroy ISIS’s caliphate in IRAQ with their campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants. In particular, IRAQI forces launched an offensive to recapture the last bastion of ISIS in IRAQ as soldiers, police, Sunni tribesmen and mostly Shia paramilitary fighters are taking part in the assault on AL-QAIM and RAWA in the Euphrates river valley close to the border with SYRIA. On a positive note this week, the IRAQI army destroyed an ISIS camp south of AR-RUTBAH town in ANBAR that included a booby-trapped vehicle, explosive charges and a laboratory for making bombs. In addition, IRAQI army fighter jets killed 27 ISIS fighters in an air raid that pounded the ISIS hideout in WADI HAWRAN, west of ANBAR and that also destroyed a number of vehicles and a restroom belonging to ISIS militants.
Meanwhile, the KURDS still consider the September 25 referendum victory as the culmination of decades of struggle for a KURDISH state of their own although the IRAQI government has clearly stated that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. However, after the votes were tallied and the referendum passed with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, Iraq’s top SHIITE cleric out right rejected the outcome of KURDISTAN’s independence vote despite the overwhelming 92% voting in favour of separating from IRAQ. Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani stated that KURDS must return to the constitutional path arguing that it is in the best interests of all IRAQIS including the KURDS to go back to the constitutional path to solve the issues between the central IRAQI government and the KURDISH region’s government. IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi subsequently released a statement expressing his agreement with the position of Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in addition to stating that the IRAQI government considers KURDISTAN’s referendum as unconstitutional such that the IRAQI government has asked the KURDISH government to cancel its outcome in order to satisfy a precondition for talks on outstanding issues between the two governments. Meanwhile, IRAQI forces along with IRANIAN trained paramilitaries deployed heavy weaponry build up in KIRKUK, the jewel of the proposed future KURDISTAN state. Subsequently, IRAQI forces took control of all major areas of KIRKUK province from KURDISH YPG fighters following fierce fighting. In particular, IRAQI forces took ALTON KUPRI, the oil-rich province of KURDISTAN as rocket; artillery and heavy machine-gun fire erupted in the region. As a friendly reminder, the salient point of disagreement stems from the IRAQI Federal Government deeming the referendum vote as unconstitutional while the KURDISH leadership reaffirms the referendums legitimacy on the basis that it was supported by the majority of the people living in the KURDISTAN Region and was justified on the basis that IRAQI officials have regularly violated over 55 articles of the IRAQI Constitution.
Ironically, IRAQI military officials and their KURDISH counterparts went into a new round of talks under the banner of the U.S. in FISH KHABUR to try to find a settlement for recent disputes and the threat of further military confrontation particularly over the border crossing points. It seems that both sides have agreed on some points and are close to reaching a final agreement although no agreement has yet been signed or made public. Apparently, the IRAQI military side were adamant that the FISH KHABOUR border crossing should be handed over to IRAQI military but agreed for KURDISH border guards presence as well as a U.S. force to run the border crossing in tandem. In regards to Kurdish areas outside the Kurdistan Region still held by the KURDS including SHEIKHAN, MAHMODIYA, SAHELA, ALQOSH, GWER and KHAZIR, it seems that these areas will be run jointly between the KURDISH and IRAQI armies. Also of critical importance, the two sides are also working to negotiate a truce after deadly clashes erupted in some of the disputed territories near the SYRIAN border and south of ERBIL.
Meanwhile, last week, IRAQI Kurdish authorities stated that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession. However, the KURDS also stated that this decision must become a basis for starting an inclusive national dialogue between KURDISTAN and IRAQ to resolve all disputes through implementation of all constitutional articles and in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution because all elements of the IRAQI Constitution must be respected in order to secure the unity of IRAQ. Meanwhile, this week, KURDISH advisor to former KURDISH President Masoud Barzani, Kifah Mahmoud, stated in an interview that independence is a notion that stems from the minds and hearts of the KURDISH people that was manifested on the ground with the recent referendum such that the notion is a reality that cannot be disputed amongst any KURD in the region. Therefore, the one thing that the KURDISH people and the IRAQI government are not in agreement with is the means of executing secession that is most likely a matter of timing as the recent referendum proves the desire and the determination of the KURDISH people to make secession a reality.
SYRIA News
Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN Army under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH focused their attention on ISIS in DEIR AL-ZOR while growing concerns mounted for civilians amid tense fighting. It is important to note that the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has made remarkable progress in the DEIR AL-ZOR region over the last two months liberating a significant portion of the province that was previously occupied by ISIS. Most recently, SAA units have made their way across several kilometers of territory south of the provincial capital of DEIR AL-ZOR putting them within striking distance of AL-MAYADEEN, ISIS’s new de facto capital in SYRIA. Last week the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) captured positions in the town of MEKHAN, south of AL-MAYADEEN close to SYRIA’s border with IRAQ such that the SAA is now pushing further south towards the town of BOUKAMAL that, if seized by the SAA, would be a major loss for ISIS. Therefore, the Russian Defence Ministry now estimates that the ISIS terrorist group controls less than five per cent of SYRIA after losing large swathes of territory to the SDF opposition fighters; the U.S. led coalition, the SAA and Russian allied forces. However, estimates indicate that ISIS still controls over 60 kilometers of territory in the DEIR AL-ZOR Region, including several towns along the eastern and western banks of the EUPHRATES River. Among the occupied areas still under ISIS control are a group of towns that are located along the EUPHRATES River Valley including AL-ASHARAH, ABU HAMMAM, HAJEEN, AL-JALA and SOUSAH. However, this week, the SAA struck hard the last towns occupied by ISIS forces between the cities of AL-MAYADEEN and AL-BOUKAMAL whereby the SAA forces now claim to have taken full control of AL-BOUKAMAL ousting ISIS from the border town for the second time over the last month. AL-BOUKAMAL was finally fully liberated such that the SAA army’s engineering units have been doing sweeping operations to de-mine the town so that civilians can safely return.
On a positive note, after U.S. backed fighters had surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA, they finally managed to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, have cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. Fighters of the U.S. backed, KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) punched their way through ISIS lines in RAQQA city as KURDISH forces literally shot their way through the streets of RAQQA, concentrating fire on ISIS positions hidden in the urban ruin of RAQQA city while ISIS fought back hard. Meanwhile, witnesses of the aftermath of the battle for RAQQA duly noted that the victory celebrations by KURDISH forces felt muted as there were literally no civilians left in RAQQA such that it was the celebration of the liberation of a ghost town. However, Syrians hoping to return home to RAQQA now that RAQQA has been liberated from ISIS are being told to wait indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby some have already taken their toll in terms of human casualties. Nonetheless, the current SYRIAN government under the control of President Bashar al-Assad stated that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA, which was liberated from ISIS by the U.S. backed and KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In particular, the existing SYRIAN regime stated that both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime. Meanwhile, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin stated that his IRANIAN and TURKISH counterparts have supported a proposal to hold a “Syrian People’s Congress” that will bring together government and opposition figures. The congress will look at the key questions on SYRIA’s national agenda including the drawing-up of a framework for the future structure of SYRIA, the adoption of a new constitution and the holding of elections under United Nations supervision. Meanwhile, four hundred U.S. Marines will be leaving SYRIA soon with their replacement units officially annulled after completing their mission to help defeat ISIS in RAQQA given that RAQQA is now liberated and ISIS is clearly on the run.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders.
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continue to largely ignore the U.S., the E.U. and all other Western allies as was evident this week in NEW YORK whereby businessman Reza Zarrab described money laundering networks set-up to enable IRAN to access global markets by evading sanctions through a state-owned bank in TURKEY whereby Reza Zarrab claims that the TURKISH President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan was well aware of the billion-dollar operation. In my opinion, this situation perfectly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby everybody loves to play deaf, dumb, blind and stupid such that the accusations by Reza Zarrab obviously reflect his word against TURKEY as nobody will ever admit to anything regardless of the evidence presented as the new rules of the game are centered on the notion of catch me if you can. That is, everybody now twists, turns and manipulates all underlying facts and circumstances as they see best suit their personal, financial and political interests such that President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan will obviously claim that Reza Zarrab made up fictitious accusations to save his respective ass. It is important to note that Reza Zarrab had faced charges including bank fraud and money laundering but that court papers do reveal that Reza Zarrab struck a deal last month with prosecutors to plead guilty and testify against his former co-defendant in the case, Mehmet Hakan Atilla, a former deputy chief of Halkbank.
Therefore, in my opinion, this will come down to a battle of your word against mine again as Reza Zarrab obviously has a vested interest to pin everybody else to reduce his sentence in the end. Unfortunately, in my opinion, this situation seems to accurately reflect the new geopolitical realities whereby only the paper trail and substantive evidence will count that nobody can defend while everybody denies everything else vehemently until the very end such that swearing an oath of faith to tell the truth has now become in practice worthless and irrelevant as nothing more than circumstantial evidence as everybody fights to preserve, protect and promote their respective personal, financial and political interests and reputations refusing to cede or bend. In my opinion, it is not surprising that the TURKISH government had repeatedly raised Reza Zarrab’s case with the U.S. demanding his release before the plea deal was made public this week in order to avoid the airing out of dirty laundry for the world to see such that it is not surprising that TURKISH officials condemned the trial as a plot engineered by Fethullah Gulen, the Pennsylvania-based cleric accused by the TURKISH government of orchestrating the failed “Coup D’État” attempt of last year. In my opinion, this perfectly depicts the new geopolitical realities of creating an effective self-defence with conspiracy theories of a hidden personal, financial and political interest agenda by the opposition operating behind the scenes to settle a personal score when one cannot bear the heat any more. Therefore, it is not surprising that the trial has been dismissed by TURKISH officials and pro-government media as a conspiracy based on evidence gathered illegally by members of the Fethullah Gulen movement in the police and judiciary. In my opinion, this situation perfectly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby justice has become equivalent to the Hunger Games mentality whereby the new justice game is all about finding a way to survive with corruption, collusion, conspiracies and circumventions of laws that everybody suspects but nobody can effectively find concrete substantive evidence to divulge.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Moving on to IRAQ, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after over one year of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power.
Now that the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly transferred from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred to as TAL AFAR and HAWIJA in a lightening fast military offensive, over 100 villages in the outskirts still need to be purged to finalize the liberation as to the extent armed ISIS militants are still at large, the liberation cannot be deemed completed. In regards to the IRAQI forces campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants, Western ANBAR is the last region in IRAQ where ISIS held extensive stretches of territories. It is important to note that Iraqi government forces have now driven ISIS out of about 95% of the land ISIS once held in IRAQ and freed more than 4.4 million IRAQIS from ISIS rule. In my opinion, AL-QAIM, RAWA and the nearby Syrian border town of ALBU KAMAL are of strategic importance to ISIS as the group used routes through these locations to transfer fighters, weapons and goods. Therefore, the towns are also symbolically important because they made up ISIS’s self-declared, cross-border EUPHRATES PROVINCE that was a symbol of ISIS’s intention to eradicate all of the region’s borders between IRAQ and SYRIA. In my opinion, this week’s destruction of an ISIS camp south of AR-RUTBAH town in ANBAR that included a booby-trapped vehicle, explosive charges and a laboratory for making bombs clearly shows that ISIS still continues to hold isolated pockets of territory that must be fully cleared by the IRAQI military for IRAQ to be able to claim the complete destruction of ISIS in IRAQ. In regards to IRAQI army fighter jets killing 27 ISIS fighters in an air raid that pounded the ISIS hideout in WADI HAWRAN, west of ANBAR, this further shows that ISIS remains concentrated in isolated hideouts like rats in a self created maze such that the IRAQI territory cannot be deemed completely liberated until remaining ISIS rats in hiding are exterminated.
However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of a new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
In regards to the IRAQI KURDS referendum on independence on September 25, 2017, it is still my opinion that the IRAQI KURDS have the right to pursue their independence pursuant to the majority win by the KURDS with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, albeit the reality that they seem to be moving way too fast given that the IRAQI government claims that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. In my opinion, the IRAQI KURDS still need to negotiate with the IRAQI government to respect the IRAQI constitution such that although the KURDISH vote was a clear indication of majority support for separation, the September 25 referendum only serves a symbolic victory thus far, as it cannot be supported legally without further negotiations with the IRAQI government. In my opinion, it is unfortunate that the U.S. two main allies in the fight against ISIS in IRAQ are now in a shooting war with each other over control of an oil-rich city that represents a fight that has the potential to throw IRAQ into chaos and possibly even a full-scale civil war. In summary, when ISIS took over IRAQ in 2014, this fight over KIRKUK and KURDISH independence got largely pushed to the back burner as both IRAQ and KURDISTAN focused on kicking ISIS out of the country. However, now that IRAQI and KURDISH forces have pushed ISIS out of most of IRAQ, these old divisions between IRAQ and KURDISTAN have once again exploded such that the fight over KIRKUK and KURDISH independence could end up once again destabilizing IRAQ all over again. It is important to note that although KURDISH leaders were willing to use the referendum results as an opening bid in negotiations with IRAQ over expanded autonomy, federal forces responded by retaking KIRKUK and other disputed areas outside the KURDS’ autonomous region with limited bloodshed as most KURDISH forces withdrew without a fight although scattered clashes did break out.
In my opinion, the international community needs to condemn IRAQ’s military aggression on the KURDS as excessive, unreasonable and unjustified, particularly in light of the fact that KURDISH blood soaks KIRKUK as it was the KURDS who stood tall against ISIS and refused to allow KIRKUK to fall while the IRAQI military shat full their overalls when ISIS was charging full speed while the KURDS refused to secede. Unfortunately, the U.S. is closely allied with both the IRAQI military and KURDISH forces, which together have driven ISIS out from most of IRAQ but although the battle against the ISIS extremists is not yet over, the dispute with the KURDS has diverted precious resources away from the war on ISIS. In my opinion, negotiations between IRAQI military officials and their KURDISH counterparts under the banner of the U.S. in FISH KHABUR to try to find a settlement for recent disputes and the threat of further military confrontation particularly over the border crossing points was critical to avert a full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the discussions seem to show that both the IRAQI and KURDISH militaries want to avoid a full fledge civil war as they both seem to be inclined to prefer to share in the oil rich jewels of KURDISTAN as opposed to risking the destruction of the entire region to end up winning the civil war but being left with nothing to show.
However, last week’s decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. Therefore, in my opinion, the KURDS will no longer accept being treated like second-class citizens in IRAQ such that the KURDS will in essence retake control of their destinies within the IRAQI federal system via a quiet revolution to avert further bloodshed in IRAQ that could risk the complete and utter destruction of the entire KURDISTAN region. In my opinion, this weeks opinion given by KURDISH advisor to former KURDISH President Masoud Barzani, Kifah Mahmoud, that the one thing that the KURDISH people and the IRAQI government are not in agreement with is the means of executing secession that is most likely a matter of timing, I believe that the IRAQI government will do everything in their power to delay any talks regarding secession indefinitely as the IRAQI government will never give away the jewel of KIRKUK that is a critical success factor to KURDISH autonomy. Nonetheless, in my opinion, the IRAQI government does not have much of a choice today other than to speed up the dialogue process with the KURDS and to stop IRAQ’s punitive measures against the KURDISH people. In my opinion, the IRAQI government also needs to pull out IRAQI armed forces from along the KURDISH region’s borders as their presence is in violation of various articles of the IRAQI constitution.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN Army under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH now focused on targeting ISIS in DEIR AL-ZOR after letting ISIS withdraw from SYRIA’s border with LEBANON to the eastern province of DEIR AL-ZOR over one month ago. This strategic shift in focus by the SYRIAN Army on ISIS is key to overall peace in the region as the only issue that everybody in the region seems to agree upon is that ISIS needs to be contained to an underground organization without any significant control of land particularly along any major borders. Thus, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, the strikes on ISIS around DEIR AL-ZOR were perfectly timed as ISIS has been losing momentum with recent losses in neighbouring IRAQ and SYRIA while also being hit hard elsewhere in SYRIA by SDF forces. In my opinion, for ISIS, the loss of AL-MAYADEEN is a bigger loss than their imminent defeat in RAQQA City as AL-MAYADEEN is located along the main road to ISIS’s most important IRAQI crossing at ALBUKAMAL. Furthermore, ALBUKAMAL is located directly west of the IRAQI city of AL-QA’IM that is another ISIS stronghold in the AL-ANBAR region that ISIS is desperately attempting to hold. Thus, it is not surprising that the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad stormed the SYRIAN border city of AL-BUKAMAL from 3 directions. In my opinion, the SAA, Hezbollah and Iran’s IRGC made notable progress against ISIS inside the city despite strong resistance from ISIS. In my opinion, it finally does appear that ISIS has been defeated in ALBUKAMAL albeit violent clashes that sporadically continue to erupt around the town as ISIS finds itself trapped like rats underground only to be swept to the surface as the SAA goes through their respective sweeping operations across the outskirts of town. Furthermore, with the liberation of ALBUKAMAL, I expect that the remaining ISIS militants will be hiding in small towns and villages along the border with IRAQ in the SYRIAN dessert such that the remaining portion of no mans land along the Middle Euphrates River Valley will most likely represent ISIS’s last stand.
In regards to U.S. backed fighters surrounding the Syrian city of RAQQA as they finally ousted the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA, capturing RAQQA represents a major achievement in the battle against ISIS and helps to bring an end to ISIS’s reign of terror trying to create a so-called Caliphate. In my opinion, ISIS has used RAQQA for over three years to stage deadly attacks on the Middle East and further overseas such that capturing RAQQA from ISIS significantly reduces ISIS’s terrorist capabilities in the future. Therefore, the strength of the ISIS terrorists is running out as their defeats thus far in RAQQA have undermined their morale and prevented them from fighting back effectively other than hiding behind innocent civilians as human shields. Unfortunately, the by-product of this liberation of RAQQA from ISIS appears to be the complete destruction of RAQQA that in my opinion can be attributed to the ALLIANCES’s relentless aerial bombardment of RAQQA to compensate for the weaknesses of its SDF forces on the ground. This was evident during victory celebrations by KURDISH forces that felt muted, as there were literally no civilians left in RAQQA such that it was the celebration of the liberation of a ghost town. In my opinion, ISIS is to blame for the complete destruction of RAQQA as with ISIS’s sole remaining technique of hiding behind civilians for cover, there was no other way to liberate RAQQA than via complete destruction of the city, the death and maiming of hundreds of civilians and the displacement of tens of thousands.
In my opinion, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires. Therefore, the announcement last week by RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin that his IRANIAN and TURKISH counterparts have supported a proposal to hold a “Syrian People’s Congress” that will bring together government and opposition figures should be welcomed with open arms. In my opinion, now in its seventh year, the war in SYRIA has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society.
On a positive note this week, four hundred U.S. Marines will be leaving SYRIA soon with their replacement units officially annulled after completing their mission to help defeat ISIS in RAQQA given that RAQQA is now liberated and ISIS is clearly on the run. In my opinion, the departure of four hundred U.S. Marines is a sign of real progress in the region as the U.S. is clearly drawing down its combat forces where it makes sense but still continuing its efforts to help SYRIAN forces maintain security in the region. In my opinion, it is important for remaining U.S. forces to continue to work with SYRIAN forces to defeat remaining ISIS fighters in the region, prevent a re-emergence of ISIS from the shadows and set conditions for international governments to be able to assist SYRIAN citizens recover from the horrors of ISIS’s brutal and savage rule.
However, as ISIS literally disappears from the face of the map in SYRIA, the question has become whether a race to conquer the oil rich regions could result in a showdown between the international coalitions consisting of the U.S. and SDF forces on the one side and the RUSSIAN and SAA forces on the other. In my opinion, a direct military confrontation is unlikely to take place but the SYRIAN regime is in great need of the region’s oil to boost its struggling economy after the U.S. seized oil fields in RAQQA, the AL-OMAR oil field and a natural gas field in DEIR EZ-ZOR. In my opinion, the realities of the ISIS organization are that ISIS will not disappear completely off the face of the map as they still have quite a bit of amassed wealth such that eventually some sort of ceasefire deal will need to be negotiated with ISIS to contain them to limited restricted areas as opposed to dispersing them across the globe and giving ISIS the opportunity to launch covert terrorist strikes globally.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 275” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while avoiding situations similar to the state-owned bank in TURKEY exposed in a NEW YORK trial this week whereby it appears that billion-dollar money laundering networks were set-up to enable IRAN to access global markets and to evade sanctions illustrating the new geopolitical realities whereby only the paper trail and substantive evidence will count that nobody can defend while everybody denies everything else vehemently until the very end such that swearing an oath of faith to tell the truth has now become in practice worthless and irrelevant as nothing more than circumstantial evidence as everybody fights to preserve, protect and promote their respective personal, financial and political interests and reputations refusing to cede or bend.
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