During the week ending on Sunday, August 6, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants. Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKEY’s foreign policy has never been more active with TURKEY’s ever increasing footprint in SYRIA now turning TURKEY into a full-fledged party to the SYRIAN civil war. It is important to note that the city of SINJAR, west of MOSUL, SYRIA seems close to becoming a battleground for armed confrontations between the KURDISH PKK and the TURKISH army especially after TURKEY called for ground intervention against KURDISH PKK fighters in SINJAR to prevent the KURDISH PKK from controlling a new base in the north of IRAQ. Meanwhile, GERMANY formally wrote a letter to the EU Foreign Affairs Commissioner accusing TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of failing to adhere to EUROPEAN values after a failed “Coup D’État”, a controversial referendum and the possibility of reintroducing the death penalty stating that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s policies are in blatant contradiction to the EUROPEAN value system that requires a clear response. In the letter, GERMANY also suggested reducing the pre-accession aid money for TURKEY, which amounts to 4.1 billion EURO between 2014 and 2016, and to only provide the funds that promote democracy and the rule of law to insure that the aid money benefits TURKISH civil society and not the TURKISH government. Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and ALLIED forces have pushed ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces first liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety subsequent to ALLIANCE forces seizing complete control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS. It is important to note that IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS to the point of ISIS relinquishing control of MOSUL as the world watched the scenes of jubilation as IRAQI forces liberated the OLD MOSUL City from ISIS. However, with 40,000 feared dead in the battle to take back OLD MOSUL City from ISIS, the scale of civilian casualties reveals a massacre with many bodies still buried under the rubble and the level of human suffering immense. However, ISIS is far from eradicated in IRAQ as several strongholds still remain such that the final battles to push ISIS out of these places will be more complicated than the previous straightforward fights in places such as FALLUJAH and TIKRIT. Today, ISIS still controls three towns consisting of TAL AFAR, west of MOSUL; HAWIJA, south of KIRKUK; and AL QAIM, west of ANBAR whereby each fight will have its own set of complicated political, military and foreign policy issues. In addition, many ISIS militias have taken to the hills and began to wage a classic rural guerrilla war, while some ISIS sleeper cells have also been activated at the border of Baghdad, the IRAQI capital. Thus, ISIS has now returned to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group as the Islamic State of IRAQ and SYRIA can no longer call itself a state as ISIS has lost all capacity to act as a state but rather ISIS now stands exposed as a GANGSTER sham. A perfect example of ISIS omnipresence in IRAQ was felt this week as ISIS militants executed four civilians over accusations of killing two of their comrades in the stronghold town of TAL AFAR. It appears that an ISIS shooting squad executed a man and his three sons that were accused of killing two ISIS militants a few weeks earlier in an ambush of ISIS paramilitary units. It is important to note that executions of civilians by ISIS have escalated recently over multiple charges including collaboration with security forces and assaulting ISIS fighters clearly demonstrating that ISIS has a zero tolerance policy for perceived traitors. Moving on to SYRIA, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire peace process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks. Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN regime carried out the chemical attacks. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week although TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA signed an agreement at the SYRIAN cease-fire talks in KAZAKHSTAN several weeks ago calling for the creation of four de-escalation zones in SYRIA that represent the latest attempt by all key players in the region to reduce the violence in SYRIA including the commitment by President Bashar al-Assad that the SYRIAN air force will halt flights over the designated areas in SYRIA. Unfortunately, the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt albeit Russia and the U.S. continuing to discuss the situation in round-the-clock mode anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control. However, tensions seemed to deescalate slightly this week as RUSSIA announced a cease-fire for a third safe zone in SYRIA paving the way for the delivery of much needed humanitarian relief to the Free Syrian Army (FSA) held areas north of the city of HOMS. It is important to note that HOMS represents the third of four planned cease-fires reached in recent months to de-escalate the violent and prolonged SYRIAN civil war. Although the SYRIAN Army under President Bashar al-Assad have besieged the enclave north of HOMS for years, the SYRIAN Army has been unable to capture HOMS from the Free Syrian Army (FSA) even as the SYRIAN Army recovered territory elsewhere. On a positive note, U.S. backed fighters have surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, have cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. As a friendly reminder, nearly 200,000 people and 5,000 ISIS militants live in RAQQA such that the efforts to retake the SYRIAN city has now drawn dozens of U.S. military advisors deployed directly inside RAQQA city itself with U.S. Marines providing artillery support against ISIS from the surrounding countryside. It appears that these coordinated efforts are paying off as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have made yet another huge advance across the southern countryside of RAQQA liberating approximately half of the RAQQA enclave. Fighters of the U.S. backed, KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) continue to punch their way through ISIS lines in RAQQA city as KURDISH forces are literally shooting their way through the streets of RAQQA, concentrating fire on ISIS positions hidden in the urban ruin of RAQQA city while ISIS fights back hard. However, the KURDISH People’s Protection Units (YPG), the largest component of the US backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) may leave the ALLIANCE operations in RAQQA if TURKISH military forces continue to attack KURDISH dominated regions in northern SYRIA. In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders. Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Ironically, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures with TURKEY’s increasing footprint in SYRIA now turning TURKEY into a full-fledged party in the SYRIAN civil war which in my opinion triggers the risks of a direct war in SYRIA between TURKEY and the current regime under President Bashar al-Assads but also the risk of an indirect war with IRAN and possibly RUSSIA. However, it appears evident to me that with TURKEY’s presence now more overtly felt in SYRIA, the KURDISH People’s Protection Units (YPG) with racial ties to TURKEY’s arch-nemesis the KURDISH Workers Party (PKK) risks of turning into another civil was in SYRIA as the PKK has established a strong presence in the strategic SINJAR province. Furthermore, in my opinion, if TURKEY ends up in an open conflict with the KURDISH YPG in Syria, the U.S., with its direct support for the KURDISH YPG in its fight against ISIS will find itself stuck between a rock and a hard place. In my opinion, the already fragile relations between TURKEY and the U.S. will deteriorate to a point where TURKEY’s NATO membership will be questioned, as TURKEY’s unilateral actions appear to be going in a direction contrary to NATO. In a worst-case scenario, the SYRIAN civil war could result in U.S. and TURKISH forces, intentionally or unintentionally, targeting each other’s militaries with casualties mounting on both sides if a full fledge KURDISH / TURKISH civil war breaks out. In my opinion, after the dust surrounding the ISIS crisis settles in SYRIA and IRAQ, we will more clearly see the greater regional tragedy that the Middle East has been flipped upside down by all leaders behaving like insane posse clowns in a never ending battle for money, power and control caught in perpetual no disqualification boxing rounds. In regards to GERMANY formally writing a letter to the EU Foreign Affairs Commissioner stating that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s policies are in blatant contradiction to the EUROPEAN value system that requires a clear response such as reducing the pre-accession aid money for TURKEY, which amounts to 4.1 billion EURO between 2014 and 2016, GERMANY’s actions are quite shocking given that trade between the two countries are in excess of $36 billion per year which could be threatened by TURKEY as a reprisal for GERMANY’s actions. However, in my opinion, the iron woman Chancellor of GERMANY, Angela Merkel has in essence laid down the law to only provide the funds to TURKEY where TURKEY promotes democracy and the rule of EUROPEAN law to insure that the aid money benefits TURKISH civil society and not the TURKISH government. Moving on to IRAQ, the new IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after almost nine months of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ’s future since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power. In my opinion, it will be extremely difficult to eradicate ISIS completely from IRAQ as ISIS still controls three towns consisting of TAL AFAR, west of MOSUL; HAWIJA, south of KIRKUK; and AL QAIM, west of ANBAR whereby each fight will have its own set of complicated political, military and foreign policy issues. In regards to ISIS militants executing four civilians over accusations of killing two of their comrades in the stronghold town of TAL AFAR, this clearly demonstrates that ISIS has a zero tolerance policy for perceived traitors such that ISIS is in essence engaging in psychopathic actions to insure loyalty. Therefore, in my opinion, the last three strongholds in IRAQ consisting of TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL QAIM will be the most brutal and savage wars yet fought in IRAQ as ISIS has laid the foundation for martyrdom. That is, ISIS has in essence sent the message to its remaining conclaves that their only choice is to fight until death at the hands of the ALLIANCE, as the only other option is to choose to be killed by ISIS itself. Therefore, in my opinion now that ISIS has entered the final realm of one of the most brutal civil wars in history, ISIS has in essence elevated its game to complete and utter Barbarian, Neanderthal, Self-Centered, Egotistical, Narcissistic, Masochistic, Sadistic, Idiosyncratic, Sociopathic and Psychopathic maniacs. In my opinion, taking out ISIS in TAL AFAR will be complicated because TURKEY is worried that SHIITE militias will also take revenge on ethnic TURKS living in the town. That is, both SUNNI Muslim and SHIITE Muslim TURKS lived in TAL AFAR before ISIS took over while the SUNNI Muslim TURKS who remained are considered by many to be supporters of ISIS such that they may also be attacked as part of the liberation of TAL AFAR. In my opinion, taking out ISIS in HAWIJA will be complicated because it is located in KIRKUK that is known as a disputed territory because IRAQI KURDS believe HAWIJA should be part of their nearby semi-autonomous region but IRAQI ARABS believe it is part of IRAQ. That is, if the SHIITE Muslim Arabs stay in HAWIJA after ISIS is expelled, this dilutes the KURDISH claims on the area. In addition, the SUNNI Muslim tribal leaders in this area are worried that if the IRAQI KURDISH military or the SHIITE Muslim militias take part in the battle against ISIS for HAWIJA, then the SUNNI Muslim tribes will be attacked as well as they are considered by many to be supporters of ISIS. In my opinion, taking out ISIS in AL QAIM will be complicated because AL QAIM is located on an international border, between IRAQ and SYRIA such that due to its strategic geographical location, AL QAIM is by far the most secure city held by ISIS. Thus, both SYRIA and IRAQ would have to coordinate a military campaign against ISIS in AL QAIM. However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's future should be off the agenda for now and the main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace. In regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad watched as the cease-fire agreement that establishes four de-escalation zones was violated. In my opinion, although the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt, I believe that RUSSIAN and U.S. round-the-clock discussions anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control should be welcomed as a positive development in fully implementing the de-escalation zones. In my opinion, it is better for RUSSIA and the U.S. to try to work together to implement something in terms of de-escalation zones as opposed to sitting back and insuring that both parties achieve nothing. Thus, in regards to RUSSIA announcing a cease-fire for a third safe zone in SYRIA paving the way for the delivery of much needed humanitarian relief to the Free Syrian Army (FSA) held areas north of the city of HOMS, this signals a step in the right direction as HOMS has seen some of the worst shelling amongst Free Syrian Army (FSA) bastions in SYRIA that survived the siege albeit the bloodshed and misery. Therefore, in my opinion, when a de-escalation zone can be implemented in an area such as HOMS that the SYRIAN Army under President Bashar al-Assad have besieged for years but have been unable to capture, there is hope for peace in the region as this appears as a sign of the times that after over six-years of one of the most brutal civil wars that has left more than 300,000 people dead and displaced more than 11 million others, fatigue is setting in on both sides. In regards to U.S. backed fighters surrounding the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA, capturing RAQQA would be a major achievement in the battle against ISIS and help bring an end to ISIS’s reign of terror trying to create a so-called Caliphate. In my opinion, ISIS has used RAQQA for over three years to stage deadly attacks on the Middle East and further overseas such that capturing RAQQA from ISIS would significantly reduce ISIS’s terrorist capabilities in the future. I believe that the coordinated efforts are paying off as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have made yet another huge advance across the southern countryside of RAQQA liberating approximately half of the RAQQA enclave. In my opinion, the current strategy whereby U.S. airpower drops a barrage of bombs to suppress ISIS movements behind and towards the front-lines within the city, KURDISH forces on the ground let loose with a barrage of small arms fire to break up ISIS fighters at sight. Unfortunately, the KURDISH People’s Protection Units (YPG), the largest component of the US backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) threat to leave the ALLIANCE operations in RAQQA if TURKISH military forces continue to attack KURDISH dominated regions in northern SYRIA comes at a horrible time as the YPG have been instrumental in liberating RAQQA. In my opinion, the U.S. lead ALLIANCE needs to put appropriate pressure on TURKEY to cease its strikes on KURDISH positions in SYRIA while the KURDISH YPG is fighting to liberate RAQQA from ISIS as TURKEY’s actions threaten to derail the liberation of RAQQA from the ISIS wrath of terror. In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 258” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace in the region as the sign of the times is that after over six-years of one of the most brutal civil wars that has left more than 300,000 people dead and displaced more than 11 million others, fatigue is setting in on both sides with the realization that war cannot resolve the deep rooted divide.
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