World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 238

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 238

During the week ending on Sunday, March 19, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP finally continued to de-escalate slightly more this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on the EU migrant deal, signed in March of 2016, whereby TURKEY promised aid, visa-free travel for its TURKISH citizens and accelerated EU membership talks in return for TURKEY’s help in reducing the flow of migrants crossing to Europe. However, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has threatened to tear up the key migrant deal with the EU over TURKISH allegations that the EU’s top court is leading a “crusade” against Islam. The TURKISH government has been enraged by GERMANY, the NETHERLANDS and other EU nations’ decisions to block TURKEY’s officials from holding political rallies in those countries. TURKEY wants to win the votes of large TURKISH populations living in EUROPE ahead of a key referendum that would expand President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s executive powers. The EU has criticised the referendum, saying it would concentrate too much power in President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s hands. As a friendly reminder, more than 1.2 million first-time asylum seekers sought protection in the EU last year with SYRIANS, IRAQIS and AFGHANS making up the largest groups with approximately 60% applying in Germany. However, TURKEY hosts more than 3 million refugees, making TURKEY the country with the largest refugee population. In an unusually strange display of complete and utter frustration, TURKEY threatened to blow Europe’s mind by sending thousands of refugees across the border every month. Suleyman Soylu, TURKEY’s interior minister made the warning as he accused the European Union of playing games to stop TURKEY from becoming more powerful. Suleyman Soylu further added that the EU should not care about TURKISH internal issues and should not get involved. Finally, the last straw seemed to break the camels back as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan slammed Germany and accused the Dutch of behaving like Nazis.

Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and US-led ALLIANCE forces continued with their offensive against ISIS on MOSUL as IRAQI and ALLIED forces managed to push ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces appear to have liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety. As a friendly reminder, MOSUL that is divided by the Tigris River with both east and west sides respectively making up about half of the population of MOSUL was impressively liberated by the IRAQI and KURDISH Peshmerga forces. These elite ALLIANCE forces managed to fight through an elaborate defense system formed by ISIS over the past two years that kept ALLIANCE forces out while contemporaneously keeping the residents of MOSUL trapped in as captives. On a positive note, this week in a series of lightning fast advances, ALLIANCE forces seized further control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS as IRAQI forces battling ISIS moved into the Old MOSUL City and around the AL NURI mosque trying to seal off a main road to prevent ISIS militants from sending in additional suicide bombers to attack IRAQI positions. Not surprisingly, IRAQI troops were meeting fierce resistance as ISIS militants retreated into the Old MOSUL City where ISIS declared its caliphate nearly three years ago in that exact spot where street fighting is now taking place in the narrow alleyways and around the AL NURI mosque. An IRAQI helicopter fired rockets into the area and heavy gunfire and mortar blasts echoed as IRAQI troops made coordinated attacks on districts near the AL NURI mosque where ISIS’s black jihadist flag still hangs.

Moving on to SYRIA, SYRIAN government forces have retaken full control of ALEPPO, since the uprising began, after nearly six years of bloody fighting for Syria’s most populous city and SYRIA’s economic hub that has been the most prized and fiercely contested city throughout the Syrian conflict. As a friendly reminder, since the Syrian army’s assault against rebel held ALEPPO began in late September of 2016, RUSSIAN and SYRIAN government bombardments killed more than 1,000 people, including over 250 children while injuring over 5,000. Now, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be holding as its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the six-year conflict. Against all odds, the ceasefire largely continues to hold as peace negotiations continue with TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, backing these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the process continues to be advancing at a snails pace although these talks do represent the most serious diplomatic efforts in months. However, President Bashar al-Assad’s SYRIAN armed forces fired antiaircraft missiles at ISRAELI warplanes that had struck targets deep in SYRIA in what appeared to be the most serious clash between the two militaries since the start of the SYRIAN civil war over six years ago. This time, however, SYRIAN missiles set off ISRAELI air raid sirens and aerial defense systems in the JORDAN VALLEY as the ISRAELI military confirmed that its ARROW air defense system had intercepted one of the missiles that appeared to be heading toward ISRAELI territory representing the first confirmed operational use of the ARROW antimissile system. While ISRAELI aircraft may have escaped unscathed, the sirens and explosions highlighted ISRAEL’s shadow war in SYRIA. That is, Israel has repeatedly declared its neutrality in the struggle between President Bashar al-Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) while at the same time ISRAEL has been carrying out a covert campaign to prevent the transfer of sophisticated weapons from SYRIAN territory to HEZBOLLAH. As a friendly reminder, HEZBOLLAH is the militant Lebanese Shiite organization that is aiding President Bashar al-Assad in SYRIA but who also is ISRAEL’s arch nemesis with which ISRAEL fought a fierce month-long war in 2006. While ISRAEL has made no secret of its policy of acting to prevent such transfers of weapons to HEZBOLLAH, ISRAEL has thus far refused to confirm or deny involvement in any particular strikes preferring to maintain ambiguity in the hope of lowering the pressure on the other side to retaliate.

In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders.

Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP continued to de-escalate further this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on the EU migrant deal, signed in March of 2016, whereby TURKEY promised aid, visa-free travel for its TURKISH citizens and accelerated EU membership talks in return for TURKEY’s help in reducing the flow of migrants crossing to Europe. However, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has now threatened to tear up the key migrant deal with the EU over TURKISH allegations that the EU’s top court is leading a “crusade” against ISLAM. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s allegations that the EU’s top court is leading a “crusade” against ISLAM is due to significant differences in opinions regarding what constitutes above board application of democratic principals. That is, the differences between the EU and TURKEY have nothing to do with ISLAM, as ISLAM does not promote repressive measures over all opposition movements, violations of basic civil rights and liberties and significant restraints on freedoms of the press. In my opinion, it is the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who feel that they are behaving in conformance with democratic principles as they have been elected by the majority who condone the destruction, forced conversion and mandatory assimilation of all minority opposition under the governing AKP’s Reich. However, this point-of-view held by the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan fuels their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS while making the AKP appear to the EU to be in the process of converting itself into a majority fascist regime. Thus, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan feel like the EU’s difference of opinion is an against ISLAM as they do not feel like they are doing anything wrong other than exercising the will of the mass by kicking all minority ass. In regards to the last straw that seemed to break the camels back as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan slammed Germany and accused the Dutch of behaving like NAZIS, this is a clear demonstration of two different worlds with two polar opposite views as if anyone seems to currently be behaving like NAZIS, it is the TURKISH governing AKP who ironically are calling GERMANY and DUTCH resistance to the AKP internal policies and procedures as NAZISM. In my opinion, this is a perfect example of the modern day games of personal, financial and political interests whereby parties with differing interests tend to enter the world of throwing wild accusations of terrorism as opposed to consenting to notion that dual partisan viewership is possible which ultimately cannot be resolved by bitchslappingmanship.

Moving on to IRAQ, the recent successful attacks on ISIS by IRAQI security forces in MOSUL, has clearly sent the message to ISIS that it is just a matter of time until the ISIS Empire in MOSUL dies. However, the IRAQI led troops on the ground are essentially forced to fight ISIS style, which is slow and brutal for any other type of heavy artillery attack on ISIS, will result in significant collateral damage in terms of human casualties. Therefore, the ALLIANCE forces recapture of eastern MOSUL in its entirety has triggered a lightning fast momentum as ALLIANCE forces managed to seize control of major parts of Western MOSUL although in my opinion, the last of the fighting will most probably be a lot more difficult. In my opinion, ISIS will cling on to the oldest parts of MOSUL city where streets are narrow making it hard to manoeuvre military convoys and thus increasing the risk of ambushes and civilian casualties. Therefore, the IRAQI forces strategy to isolate the Old MOSUL City area from all sides and then to start an offensive from all sides is the best way to liberate the Old MOSUL City area from ISIS. However, losing MOSUL would be a huge blow to ISIS as it has served as ISIS’s de facto capital since its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi announced ISIS’s self-declared caliphate spanning IRAQ and SYRIA from the AL NURI Mosque back in July of 2014. Thus, ISIS resistance has been ferocious such that it is critical for IRAQI troops to besiege the Old MOSUL City and to cut-off all streets leading out to prevent ISIS from dispatching armoured suicide car and truck bombs that have been targeting IRAQI army positions inside the Old MOSUL City. Although armoured suicide car and truck bombs are one of the ugliest forms of ISIS warfare, ISIS has been successful in slowing down ALLIANCE forces advances as it is extremely difficult to fight an enemy ready to explode like a firecracker before ALLIANCE forces can target the attackers. Therefore, in my opinion, assuming that the KURDISH peshmerga, IRAQI army, SHIITE militia and some SUNNI militia forces continue to overlook their differences and stick together, ISIS will inevitably be decimated in IRAQ, although ISIS will likely survive as an incognito terrorist organization throughout the world. In my opinion, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations.

Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears to still be holding after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, Iran and Shiite militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations continue with TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, backing these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of President, Bashar al-Assad have been excluded from the agenda for the upcoming fifth round of negotiations set for the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's future should be off the agenda for now and the main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace.
In regards to ISRAELI warplanes striking HEZBOLLAH targets deep in SYRIA in what appears to be the most serious clash between the two militaries since the start of the SYRIAN civil war over six years ago, I am surprised that ISRAEL would choose to execute such a strike during these tense times whereby ceasefires seem to be just barely holding as Radical Gangster Terrorist organizations such as JABHAT FATEH AL-SHAM; HAYAT TAHRIR AL-SHAM; AL QAEDA; NUSRA FRONT; AHRAR AL-SHAM; or some other FULL OF SHIT GANGSTER SHAM seem to be the only other organizations initiating strikes. That being said, while ISRAEL has made no secret of its policy of acting to prevent transfers of weapons to HEZBOLLAH, ISRAEL has thus far refused to confirm or deny involvement in any particular strikes preferring to maintain ambiguity in the hope of lowering the pressure on the other side to retaliate. In my opinion, HEZBOLLAH is too busy right now fighting alongside Bashar al-Assad SYRIAN armed forces to focus on retaliatory strikes on ISRAEL such that it was not demonstrated, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that HEZBOLLAH was planning to use these weapons for purposes of striking ISRAEL directly in the future. Therefore, these strikes by ISRAEL appear to be a deliberate warning to HEZBOLLAH from ISRAEL whereby every step HEZBOLLAH takes, every move HEZBOLLAH makes, ISRAEL will be watching HEZBOLLAH. The reality on the ground in SYRIA is that HEZBOLLAH was instrumental in the war to preserve Bashar al-Assad in power and has thus only grown stronger as a military force to be reckoned with on the ground. However, ISRAEL still has the intelligence and air force sophistication including missile defense systems to control the HEZBOLLAH risk in the future albeit the reality of the current situation whereby HEZBOLLAH has become a force to be reckoned with on the ground due to over six plus years of military experience obtained during this SYRIAN civil war.

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 238” as the belief that MOSUL victory is critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace albeit modern day games of personal, financial and political interests whereby parties with differing interests tend to enter the world of throwing wild accusations of terrorism, as opposed to consenting to notion that dual partisan viewership is possible, which ultimately cannot be resolved by bitchslappingmanship.

Spirit of John Lennon – Kurdish Guerrilla Song:

March 19, 2017