World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 255

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 255 

During the week ending on Sunday, July 16, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants. Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKEY has agreed to pay $ 2.5 billion for RUSSIA’s most advanced missile defense system in a deal that signals a shift away from the NATO military alliance that has linked TURKEY to the West for more than sixty years. Turkey has been in NATO since the early years of the COLD WAR, playing a key role as a frontline state bordering RUSSIA. However, ties with fellow NATO members have been strained in recent years, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pursuing a more assertive and independent foreign policy as war raged on in neighbouring IRAQ and SYRIA. In addition, tensions with the U.S. mounted over U.S. support for KURDISH militants in SYRIA that TURKEY considers terrorists. Lastly, the relationship with the EU soured as the EU pushed TURKEY back against what the EU sees as TURKEY’s increasingly autocratic governing shift. Meanwhile, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave an interview with the BBC whereby he stated that TURKEY would find it comforting if the EU formally states that TURKEY will not be accepted as an EU member because TURKEY can stand on its own two feet. As per Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the majority of TURKS do not want the EU anymore and believe the EU’s approach to TURKEY is insincere. 

Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and US-led ALLIANCE forces continued with their offensive against ISIS on MOSUL as IRAQI and ALLIED forces managed to push ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces appear to have liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety. As a friendly reminder, MOSUL is divided by the Tigris River with both east and west sides respectively making up about half of the population of MOSUL. Elite ALLIANCE forces managed to fight through an elaborate defense system formed by ISIS over the past two years, that kept ALLIANCE forces out while contemporaneously keeping the residents of MOSUL trapped in as captives, by recapturing east MOSUL in its entirety while being at the cusp of controlling west MOSUL in the short-term. On a positive note, this week in a series of lightning fast advances, ALLIANCE forces seized further control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS as IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS to the point of ISIS relinquishing control of MOSUL as the world watched the scenes of jubilation as IRAQI forces liberated the OLD MOSUL City from ISIS. Although the Godfather of ISIS, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, announced a caliphate from the Grand Mosque of AL-NURI in MOSUL three years ago, whereby the Godfather of ISIS made the perceived strength of the ISIS movement dependent on the expansion and preservation of that caliphate, the ALLIANCE has now shattered that dream such that the consequences of losing the ISIS caliphate is now psychologically crippling for ISIS. Thus, ISIS has now returned to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group as the Islamic State of IRAQ and SYRIA can no longer call itself a state as ISIS has lost all capacity to act as a state but rather ISIS now stands exposed as a GANGSTER sham. 

Moving on to SYRIA, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire peace process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks. Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN regime carried out the chemical attacks. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week although TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA signed an agreement at the SYRIAN cease-fire talks in KAZAKHSTAN several weeks ago calling for the creation of four de-escalation zones in SYRIA that represent the latest attempt by all key players in the region to reduce the violence in SYRIA including the commitment by President Bashar al-Assad that the SYRIAN air force will halt flights over the designated areas in SYRIA. Unfortunately, the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt albeit Russia and the U.S. continuing to discuss the situation in round-the-clock mode anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control. However, tensions seemed to deescalate slightly last week as Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed on a ceasefire deal covering south-western SYRIA during talks at the G20 summit of industrialised and developing nations in Hamburg, Germany. President Donald Trump took to social media to praise the deal, as it seems to be holding stating that now it is time to move forward in working constructively with Russia. On a positive note, U.S. backed fighters have surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, have cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. As a friendly reminder, nearly 200,000 people and 5,000 ISIS militants live in RAQQA such that the efforts to retake the SYRIAN city has now drawn dozens of U.S. military advisors deployed directly inside RAQQA city itself with U.S. Marines providing artillery support against ISIS from the surrounding countryside. The U.S. troops, many of them special operations forces, are working in an advisory, assistance and accompaniment role to support U.S. backed fighters as they battle ISIS. The U.S. troops are not in a direct combat role but are calling in air strikes and are working closer to the fight than did U.S. forces supporting the IRAQI military in MOSUL such that they are much more exposed to ISIS contact than those in IRAQ. 



In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders. 

Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Ironically, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures, as TURKEY has agreed to pay $ 2.5 billion for RUSSIA’s most advanced missile defense system in a deal that signals a shift away from the NATO military alliance that has linked TURKEY to the West for more than sixty years. In my opinion, the missile deal with RUSSIA is a clear sign that TURKEY is disappointed in the U.S. and Europe but until the advance is paid and the assembly begins, nothing is certain. Furthermore, the RUSSIAN system would not be compatible with other NATO defense systems but also the RUSSIAN system would not be subject to the same constraints imposed by the NATO alliance which prevents TURKEY from deploying such systems on the hotspots around the TURKISH region consisting of the ARMENIAN border, AEGEAN coast or GREEK border. However, the RUSSIAN deal would allow TURKEY to deploy the missile defense systems anywhere in TURKEY. In my opinion, for TURKEY, the critical success factor of any deal is the transfer of technology or know how as TURKEY wants to be able to produce its own advanced defense systems such that the Russian agreement to allow two of the S-400 batteries to be produced in TURKEY would serve that aim. In my opinion, RUSSIA has pounced on the opportunity to provide TURKEY with a viable alternative to NATO by giving TURKEY the opportunity to produce the defense system in TURKEY while being very well apprised that there are a lot of different levels of technology transfer such that any offer to TURKEY would probably be limited in terms of sophistication as for TURKEY to be able to copy the S-400 system, TURKEY would need to spend billions to create a whole new industry which most probably will not justify any incremental return on TURKISH investment in such a project. In regards to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stating that the majority of TURKS do not want the EU anymore and believe the EU’s approach to TURKEY is insincere, I believe that the difference in approach to governing whereby TURKEY is authoritarian as opposed to EU democratic cannot be bridged as TURKEY continues to live in a façade. That is, TURKEY believes that because its government was elected democratically to govern autocratically, by default TURKEY is a democratic government legally although in substance TURKEY has become authoritarian style. A perfect example of the TURKISH façade is the fact that although some 160 media outlets have been closed down in TURKEY and 2,500 journalists or media workers have been fired from their jobs, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists, making TURKEY the biggest jailer of journalists in the world, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan disputed this figure by stating that no one is jailed because of journalism in TURKEY such that just two journalists are actually jailed right now. 

Moving on to IRAQ, the recent successful attacks on ISIS by IRAQI security forces in MOSUL, has clearly sent the message to ISIS that it is just a matter of time until the ISIS Empire in IRAQ dies. Therefore, the ALLIANCE forces recapture of eastern MOSUL in its entirety has triggered a lightning fast momentum as ALLIANCE forces managed to seize control of most parts of Western MOSUL. In my opinion, the new IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after almost nine months of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS is drawing to a bitter end in the ruins of MOSUL’s historic quarter but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ’s future since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power. It is critical to remember that ISIS has slaughtered SUNNIS by the hundreds and displaced SUNNIS by the thousands but ISIS’s greatest hatred and violence was directed against those belonging to other faiths, mainly Shia Muslims, Christians, Yazidis and others. Furthermore, while ISIS ruled by terror, ISIS drew some support from SUNNIS who felt abandoned by an IRAQI government that they believed discriminated against SUNNIS and cared only for SHIAS such that it is these people that IRAQ must now bring onside if IRAQ is to have any hope of making this victory against ISIS last. In my opinion, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. 

Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's future should be off the agenda for now and the main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace. 

In regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad watched as the cease-fire agreement that establishes four de-escalation zones was violated. In my opinion, although the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt, I believe that RUSSIAN and U.S. round-the-clock discussions anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control should be welcomed as a positive development in fully implementing the de-escalation zones. In my opinion, it is better for RUSSIA and the U.S. to try to work together to implement something in terms of de-escalation zones as opposed to sitting back and insuring that both parties achieve nothing. Thus, in regards to the Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump agreement on a ceasefire deal covering south-western SYRIA during talks at the G20 summit of industrialised and developing nations in Hamburg, Germany, showed that the US and Russia are able to work together in SYRIA such that they should continue to do so until this brutal and savage war is finally ended once and for all. In my opinion, while the new ceasefire deal covering southwestern SYRIA has several advantages, it falls short in complicated ways. The new ceasefire deal requires forces loyal to the SYRIAN government and those belonging to the non-terrorist opposition, generally under the umbrella of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), to halt attacks. However, foreign fighters, including forces mobilized by IRAN, are not allowed in areas near the SYRIAN borders while humanitarian aid is to flow into the area and refugees are to be permitted to return to their homes. Ironically, to make these things happen, U.S. President Donald Trump delegated responsibility to Russian President Vladimir Putin, relying on him both to quell the bloodshed throughout SYRIA and broker a political settlement that SYRIA cannot deliver on its own. Another impediment to implementation is that the new ceasefire deal also circumvented IRAN, ignoring on-the-ground realities and guaranteeing opposition from IRAN to support this new ceasefire deal. In my opinion, this new ceasefire deal represents a strategy that could offer benefits in the short term but will not resolve the larger SYRIAN cancer eating away at stability in the Middle East consisting of ingrained deep rooted hatred amongst rivals after years of atrocities in the name of survival leaving behind trails of blood triggering perpetual conflict revivals. In regards to U.S. backed fighters surrounding the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA, capturing RAQQA would be a major achievement in the battle against ISIS and help bring an end to ISIS’s reign of terror trying to create a so-called Caliphate. In my opinion, ISIS has used RAQQA for over three years to stage deadly attacks on the Middle East and further overseas such that capturing RAQQA from ISIS would significantly reduce ISIS’s terrorist capabilities in the future. I believe the U.S. needed to enter the fight in RAQQA more aggressively in an advisory, assistance and accompaniment role to support U.S. backed fighters as they battle ISIS who now seem to have gone completely mad after their humiliating defeat in MOSUL, IRAQ. In my opinion, scores of civilians are fleeing RAQQA traumatized with families torn apart and conditions worsening as the battle to oust ISIS intensifies knowing full well that ISIS will fight until death to defend their last stronghold of their self declared caliphate. Unfortunately, dead bodies all over the place in some of the more devastated neighbourhoods rotting in the heat on the streets and amongst debris with a repugnant, vial and nasty stench of a civil war from hell that nobody will ever be able to forget. In my opinion, for the estimated 30,000 to 50,000 people who remain trapped in RAQQA, with ISIS holding them against their will, shooting at those trying to escape, the realities of this civil war is that there are no holds barred including killing your own. In my opinion, ISIS and other various Radical Gangster Terrorist organizations consisting of HAYAT TAHRIR AL-SHAM, JABHAT FATEH AL-SHAM, AL QAEDA, NUSRA FRONT, AHRAR AL-SHAM and ALL FULL OF SHIT GANGSTER SHAM are all run old school GANGSTER style except that they all hide behind ISLAM as a smokescreen to convert their criminal organizations into religious sanctuaries. However, it is clear to me that none of these groups practice ISLAM, which translates to peace, but rather all of these groups practice their own self-created religion of capitalist opportunistic SHAM SCAM BRAINWASH RAM. Therefore, in my opinion, whenever there is an uprising by one of these Radical Gangster Terrorist organizations, there is a need for rapid intervention to contain the poison before it spreads and the mass at large become psychologically brain dead. 



In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 255” as the belief that MOSUL and RAQQA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace albeit ingrained deep rooted hatred amongst rivals after years of atrocities in the name of survival leaving behind trails of blood triggering perpetual conflict revivals as civil war spiralled out of control with no holds barred including killing your own. 

Spirit of John Lennon – Kurdish Guerrilla Song:  

July 16, 2017

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 254

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 254

During the week ending on Sunday, July 9, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants. Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures while thousands journeyed by foot from TURKEY’s capital ANKARA to its largest city ISTANBUL with many carrying banners that say “ADALET” or “JUSTICE” literally crying that they have lost democracy in their own TURKISH country and want it back. Many protesters wore shirts bearing the images of NURIYE GULMEN and SEMIH OZAKCA, two teachers who were jailed last month after more than 70 days on a hunger strike over their arbitrary dismissal by a TURKISH government decree. As a friendly reminder, tens of thousands of people have been dismissed or detained in a broad TURKISH government crackdown in the aftermath of the failed “Coup D’État” last July after TURKEY declared a state of emergency. Furthermore, the TURKISH government’s purge went beyond the direct perpetrators of the failed “Coup D’État” to encompass a large swathe of TURKISH civil society, political opposition groups, academics, journalists and civil servants. In addition, TURKEY’s judiciary has been reshaped with a quarter of the TURKEY’s judges and prosecutors dismissed or jailed over alleged connections to Fethullah Gulen, the exiled TURKISH preacher whose opposition movement is widely believed in TURKEY to have orchestrated the failed “Coup D’État”. Also, senior opposition politicians have been imprisoned with Enis Berberoglu representing the latest lawmaker with the People’s Republican party (CHP) jailed for 25 years after leaking information to the press on TURKISH intelligence regarding the transfer of weapons across the border to SYRIAN rebels. It seems that this arrest of Enis Berberoglu sparked the JUSTICE march, a 450 kilometers walk, led by the CHP’s chairman, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, which set off from ANKARA on June 15, 2017. In summary, organisers were ecstatic to see the march culminate in a large rally in INSTANBUL on July 9, 2017 whereby supporters were drawn along the way from across TURKISH society, despite the scorching summer heat, in order to force TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to return to the days of democratic reign and relinquish the authoritarian style operations of the TURKISH government since the failed “Coup D’État”. Contemporaneously with the unrest in TURKEY, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reaffirmed TURKEY’s support for QATAR in QATAR’s dispute with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain saying that their demands against tiny Gulf nation of QATAR were unacceptable. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt accuse QATAR of supporting terrorism and allying with regional foe IRAN such that they have cut diplomatic and commercial ties with QATAR although QATAR categorically denies all allegations levelled by the four ARAB neighbours against QATAR. The four ARAB nations’ foreign ministers refrained from slapping further sanctions on QATAR but voiced disappointment at QATAR’s failure to comply with their 13 demands after the expiry of the deadline. However, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stood by QATAR and stated publicly that the list of 13 items is not acceptable under any circumstances as some of the terms were tantamount to stripping QATAR of its statehood. Among the demands of the four ARAB neighbours is for QATAR to end an accord under which TURKEY maintains a military base in QATAR. However, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated that TURKEY remains loyal to their agreement with QATAR such that only if QATAR requests TURKEY to leave will TURKEY do as such. TURKEY, the most powerful regional country to stand by QATAR, has sent 100 cargo planes with supplies since its four ARAB neighbours cut air and sea links. TURKEY has also rushed through legislation to send more troops to the military base in QATAR including two contingents of TURKISH troops with columns of armoured vehicles that arrived since the crisis erupted on June 5, 2017. 

Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and US-led ALLIANCE forces continued with their offensive against ISIS on MOSUL as IRAQI and ALLIED forces managed to push ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces appear to have liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety. As a friendly reminder, MOSUL is divided by the Tigris River with both east and west sides respectively making up about half of the population of MOSUL. Elite ALLIANCE forces managed to fight through an elaborate defense system formed by ISIS over the past two years, that kept ALLIANCE forces out while contemporaneously keeping the residents of MOSUL trapped in as captives, by recapturing east MOSUL in its entirety while being at the cusp of controlling west MOSUL in the short-term. On a positive note, this week in a series of lightning fast advances, ALLIANCE forces seized further control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS as IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS with IRAQI government troops finally capturing the ruined AL-NURI Mosque and AL-HADBA minaret, at the heart of ISIS’s de facto capital MOSUL, with IRAQI Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi, declaring ISIS’s self-declared caliphate ended after more than eight months of grinding urban warfare. Furthermore, IRAQI troops expect the long battle for MOSUL to end in the coming days as remaining ISIS fighters are surrounded in just a half dozen or so neighbourhoods of the Old MOSUL City. 

Moving on to SYRIA, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire peace process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks. Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN regime carried out the chemical attacks. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week although TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA signed an agreement at the SYRIAN cease-fire talks in KAZAKHSTAN two weeks ago calling for the creation of four de-escalation zones in SYRIA that represent the latest attempt by all key players in the region to reduce the violence in SYRIA including the commitment by President Bashar al-Assad that the SYRIAN air force will halt flights over the designated areas in SYRIA. Unfortunately, the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt albeit Russia and the U.S. continuing to discuss the situation in round-the-clock mode anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control. However, tensions seemed to deescalate slightly this week as Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed on a ceasefire deal covering south-western SYRIA during talks at the G20 summit of industrialised and developing nations in Hamburg, Germany. Russian and American experts agreed on a memorandum of understanding to create a de-escalation zone in the regions of DARAA, QUNEITRA and SUWEIDA from midday DAMASCUS time on July 9, 2017. On a positive note, U.S. backed fighters have surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, have cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. As a friendly reminder, nearly 200,000 people and 5,000 ISIS militants live in RAQQA such that the efforts to retake the SYRIAN city comes as ISIS faces a likely defeat on another front as IRAQI forces are closing in on completely seizing MOSUL, ISIS’s last major stronghold in IRAQ. 



In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders. 

Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Ironically, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures, as the TURKISH opposition march that set off from ANKARA on June 15, 2017 continued to gain momentum and speed, as organisers were ecstatic to see the march culminate in a large rally in INSTANBUL on July 9, 2017. In my opinion, it is extremely impressive how the TURKISH opposition movement has drawn supporters along the way from across TURKISH society, despite the scorching summer heat, and I believe this march will force TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to return to the days of democratic reign and relinquish the authoritarian style operations of the TURKISH government since the failed “Coup D’État”. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will eventually find himself with his back up against the wall by his own people as the TURKISH authoritarian regime has now entered the realm of squeezing blood out of a rock which will either lead to a return to democracy or another civil war. In my opinion, the governing AKP has taken its crackdown measures under the auspices of a state of emergency way too far such that TURKEY is now at a crossroads in its history whereby it will either return to democratic rule or the opposition will resort to tactics of civil war that will inevitably destabilize TURKEY and return TURKEY to the days of military rule which is not sustainable under the method of operations of the evolved TURKISH middle class that have developed deductive reasoning techniques that I like to refer to as New School. In regards to TURKEY rejecting a key demand by several ARAB states involved in a major dispute with QATAR to shut down TURKEY’s military base in the small GULF country, I agree with TURKEY’s decision to side with QATAR in this dispute where tiny, gas-rich QATAR found itself on the defense against its much larger neighbours consisting of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. In my opinion, TURKEY made the right decision to side with QATAR as otherwise QATAR would have been crushed by the sheer might of its neighbours and from my point-of-view, it looks like QATAR’s neighbours are trying to force QATAR to bend to their will on a much broader set of issues. Furthermore, there appears to be ulterior motives behind the moves of QATAR’s neighbours who want QATAR to align itself politically, economically and otherwise with the Gulf Cooperation Council, a regional club that has focused on countering the influence of IRAN. In my opinion, QATAR has been supplied with an impossible list to be met because the list interferes with QATAR’s foreign policy while QATAR rightfully considers QATAR’s foreign policy a sovereign matter that is not negotiable. However, this further reflects the complexity of the geopolitical landscape in the region as everyone is perpetually jockeying for power and control under the new principals of, what I refer to as, “Democratic Communism” whereby everybody has freedom of choice while their choices are significantly restricted by the resources under their respective control. That is, a new form of political system seems to have emerged whereby democratic principals exist in theory while communism is applied in practice whereby the mass gang up on the underdog ass and significantly constrain their resources to in essence control their brass. Moving on to IRAQ, the recent successful attacks on ISIS by IRAQI security forces in MOSUL, has clearly sent the message to ISIS that it is just a matter of time until the ISIS Empire in MOSUL dies. However, the IRAQI led troops on the ground are essentially forced to fight ISIS style, which is slow and brutal for any other type of heavy artillery attack on ISIS, will result in significant collateral damage in terms of human casualties. Therefore, the ALLIANCE forces recapture of eastern MOSUL in its entirety has triggered a lightning fast momentum as ALLIANCE forces managed to seize control of major parts of Western MOSUL. In my opinion, the new IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally seize the nearly 850-year-old GRAND AL-NURI Mosque from where ISIS proclaimed their caliphate nearly three years ago represents a huge symbolic victory. In my opinion, the return of the AL-NURI Mosque and AL-HADBA Minaret to the IRAQI nation marks the end of the ISIS reign of terror in IRAQ. That is, after almost nine months of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS is drawing to a bitter end in the ruins of MOSUL’s historic quarter but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ’s future since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power. In my opinion, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. 

Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's future should be off the agenda for now and the main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace. 

In regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad watched as the cease-fire agreement signed last week that establishes four de-escalation zones was violated. In my opinion, although the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt, I believe that RUSSIAN and U.S. round-the-clock discussions anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control should be welcomed as a positive development in fully implementing the de-escalation zones. In my opinion, it is better for RUSSIA and the U.S. to try to work together to implement something in terms of de-escalation zones as opposed to sitting back and insuring that both parties achieve nothing. Thus, in regards to the Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump agreement on a ceasefire deal covering south-western SYRIA during talks at the G20 summit of industrialised and developing nations in Hamburg, Germany, showed that the US and Russia are able to work together in SYRIA such that they should continue to do so until this brutal and savage war is finally ended once and for all. In my opinion, previous ceasefires in SYRIA have collapsed or failed to reduce violence for long such that it is unclear whether this deal will do any better. However, the fact that it was sealed with a handshake between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump puts a lot of political capital on the line as the world watched the handshake in awe such that both President’s reputations to deliver will be lost if this ceasefire does no go into effect without any flaws. In regards to U.S. backed fighters surrounding the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA, capturing RAQQA would be a major achievement in the battle against ISIS and help bring an end to ISIS’s reign of terror trying to create a so-called Caliphate. In my opinion, ISIS has used RAQQA for over three years to stage deadly attacks on the Middle East and further overseas such that capturing RAQQA from ISIS would significantly reduce ISIS’s terrorist capabilities in the future. In my opinion, ISIS and other various Radical Gangster Terrorist organizations consisting of HAYAT TAHRIR AL-SHAM, JABHAT FATEH AL-SHAM, AL QAEDA, NUSRA FRONT, AHRAR AL-SHAM and ALL FULL OF SHIT GANGSTER SHAM are all run old school GANGSTER style except that they all hide behind ISLAM as a smokescreen to convert their criminal organizations into religious sanctuaries. However, it is clear to me that none of these groups practice ISLAM, which translates to peace, but rather all of these groups practice their own self-created religion of capitalist opportunistic SHAM SCAM BRAINWASH RAM. Therefore, in my opinion, whenever there is an uprising by one of these Radical Gangster Terrorist organizations, there is a need for rapid intervention to contain the poison before it spreads and the mass at large become psychologically brain dead. 



In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 254” as the belief that MOSUL and RAQQA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace albeit new geopolitical landscape in the region of “Democratic Communism” whereby democratic principals exist in theory while communism is applied in practice whereby the mass gang up on the underdog ass and significantly constrain their resources to in essence control their brass by limiting their resources and squeezing their cash. 

Spirit of John Lennon – Kurdish Guerrilla Song: 

July 9, 2017

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 253

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 253 

During the week ending on Sunday, July 2, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants. Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures while thousands journeyed by foot from TURKEY’s capital ANKARA to its largest city ISTANBUL with many carrying banners that say “ADALET” or “JUSTICE” literally crying that they have lost democracy in their own TURKISH country and want it back. Many protesters wore shirts bearing the images of NURIYE GULMEN and SEMIH OZAKCA, two teachers who were jailed last month after more than 70 days on a hunger strike over their arbitrary dismissal by a TURKISH government decree. As a friendly reminder, tens of thousands of people have been dismissed or detained in a broad TURKISH government crackdown in the aftermath of the failed “Coup D’État” last July after TURKEY declared a state of emergency. Furthermore, the TURKISH government’s purge went beyond the direct perpetrators of the failed “Coup D’État” to encompass a large swathe of TURKISH civil society, political opposition groups, academics, journalists and civil servants. In addition, TURKEY’s judiciary has been reshaped with a quarter of the TURKEY’s judges and prosecutors dismissed or jailed over alleged connections to Fethullah Gulen, the exiled TURKISH preacher whose opposition movement is widely believed in TURKEY to have orchestrated the failed “Coup D’État”. Also, senior opposition politicians have been imprisoned with Enis Berberoglu representing the latest lawmaker with the People’s Republican party (CHP) jailed for 25 years after leaking information to the press on TURKISH intelligence regarding the transfer of weapons across the border to SYRIAN rebels. It seems that this arrest of Enis Berberoglu sparked the JUSTICE march, a 450 kilometers walk, led by the CHP’s chairman, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, which set off from ANKARA on June 15, 2017. In summary, organisers hope the march will culminate in a large rally in INSTANBUL on July 9, 2017 whereby the supporters drawn along the way from across TURKISH society, despite the scorching summer heat, will force TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to return to the days of democratic reign and relinquish the authoritarian style operations of the TURKISH government since the failed “Coup D’État”. Contemporaneously with the unrest in TURKEY, QATAR’s ministry of defence announced the arrival of a new group of TURKISH armed forces to the TURKISH military base in QATAR where Turkey began its training mission last week. The TURKISH forces are set to take part in joint exercises in QATAR within the framework of a defence agreement signed between QATAR and TURKEY aimed at raising QATAR’s defence capabilities, supporting counter-terrorism efforts and maintaining security and stability in the region. As a friendly reminder, the deal’s approval came three days after Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain broke ties with QATAR and restricted access to land, sea and air routes over allegations that QATAR funds terrorism, an accusation QATAR rejects. In addition, Saudi Arabia and other Sunni-led nations have accused QATAR of inappropriately close ties with IRAN, a Shia-led country and Saudi Arabia’s primary opposition in the region. 

Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and US-led ALLIANCE forces continued with their offensive against ISIS on MOSUL as IRAQI and ALLIED forces managed to push ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces appear to have liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety. As a friendly reminder, MOSUL is divided by the Tigris River with both east and west sides respectively making up about half of the population of MOSUL. Elite ALLIANCE forces managed to fight through an elaborate defense system formed by ISIS over the past two years, that kept ALLIANCE forces out while contemporaneously keeping the residents of MOSUL trapped in as captives, by recapturing east MOSUL in its entirety while being at the cusp of controlling west MOSUL in the short-term. On a positive note, this week in a series of lightning fast advances, ALLIANCE forces seized further control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS as IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS with IRAQI government troops finally capturing the ruined AL-NURI Mosque and AL-HADBA minaret, at the heart of ISIS’s de facto capital MOSUL, with IRAQI Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi, declaring ISIS’s self-declared caliphate ended after more than eight months of grinding urban warfare. Furthermore, IRAQI troops expect the long battle for MOSUL to end in the coming days as remaining ISIS fighters are surrounded in just a half dozen or so neighbourhoods of the Old MOSUL City. 

Moving on to SYRIA, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire peace process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks. Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN regime carried out the chemical attacks. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week although TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA signed an agreement at the SYRIAN cease-fire talks in KAZAKHSTAN two weeks ago calling for the creation of four de-escalation zones in SYRIA that represent the latest attempt by all key players in the region to reduce the violence in SYRIA including the commitment by President Bashar al-Assad that the SYRIAN air force will halt flights over the designated areas in SYRIA. Unfortunately, the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt albeit Russia and the U.S. continuing to discuss the situation in round-the-clock mode anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control. However, tensions seemed to escalate this week as International chemical weapons inspectors confirmed that the nerve agent sarin was used in April’s deadly chemical attack in Syria’s IDLIB province. The attack, in which 89 people died, was one of the deadliest in Syria in recent years and prompted the U.S. military to launch 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles at a Syrian airbase with the White House issuing a public warning this week that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad would pay a heavy price for using chemical weapons. On a positive note, U.S. backed fighters have surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, have cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. As a friendly reminder, nearly 200,000 people and 5,000 ISIS militants live in RAQQA such that the efforts to retake the SYRIAN city comes as ISIS faces a likely defeat on another front as IRAQI forces are closing in on completely seizing MOSUL, ISIS’s last major stronghold in IRAQ. 

In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders. 

Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Ironically, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures, as the TURKISH opposition march that set off from ANKARA on June 15, 2017 continued to gain momentum and speed as organisers hope the march will culminate in a large rally in INSTANBUL on July 9, 2017. In my opinion, it is extremely impressive how the TURKISH opposition movement has drawn supporters along the way from across TURKISH society, despite the scorching summer heat, and I believe this march will force TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to return to the days of democratic reign and relinquish the authoritarian style operations of the TURKISH government since the failed “Coup D’État”. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will eventually find himself with his back up against the wall by his own people as the TURKISH authoritarian regime has now entered the realm of squeezing blood out of a rock which will either lead to a return to democracy or another civil war. In my opinion, the governing AKP has taken its crackdown measures under the auspices of a state of emergency way too far such that TURKEY is now at a crossroads in its history whereby it will either return to democratic rule or the opposition will resort to tactics of civil war that will inevitably destabilize TURKEY and return TURKEY to the days of military rule which is not sustainable under the method of operations of the evolved TURKISH middle class that have developed deductive reasoning techniques that I like to refer to as New School. In regards to TURKEY rejecting a key demand by several ARAB states involved in a major dispute with QATAR to shut down TURKEY’s military base in the small GULF country, I agree with TURKEY’s decision to side with QATAR in this dispute where tiny, gas-rich QATAR found itself on the defense against its much larger neighbours consisting of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. In my opinion, TURKEY made the right decision to side with QATAR as otherwise QATAR would have been crushed by the sheer might of its neighbours and from my point-of-view, it looks like QATAR’s neighbours are trying to force QATAR to bend to their will on a much broader set of issues. Furthermore, there appears to be ulterior motives behind the moves of QATAR’s neighbours who want QATAR to align itself politically, economically and otherwise with the Gulf Cooperation Council, a regional club that has focused on countering the influence of IRAN. In my opinion, QATAR has been supplied with an impossible list to be met because the list interferes with QATAR’s foreign policy while QATAR rightfully considers QATAR’s foreign policy a sovereign matter that is not negotiable. However, this further reflects the complexity of the geopolitical landscape in the region as countries struggle to contain their own internal disputes such as TURKEY dealing with a massive protest march by opposition groups within TURKEY while being forced to intervene in neighbours disputes with TURKEY siding with QATAR to in essence attempt to find some sort of equilibrium in the greater middle eastern region. In my opinion, this new reality of perpetual juggling of personal, financial and political interests has become the new method of operations in the middle east to deal with pent-up frustrations and never ending disputes and conflicts in an attempt to control the circus act before it spirals out of control and the entire region is engulfed in civil wars.

Moving on to IRAQ, the recent successful attacks on ISIS by IRAQI security forces in MOSUL, has clearly sent the message to ISIS that it is just a matter of time until the ISIS Empire in MOSUL dies. However, the IRAQI led troops on the ground are essentially forced to fight ISIS style, which is slow and brutal for any other type of heavy artillery attack on ISIS, will result in significant collateral damage in terms of human casualties. Therefore, the ALLIANCE forces recapture of eastern MOSUL in its entirety has triggered a lightning fast momentum as ALLIANCE forces managed to seize control of major parts of Western MOSUL. In my opinion, the new IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally seize the nearly 850-year-old GRAND AL-NURI Mosque from where ISIS proclaimed their caliphate nearly three years ago represents a huge symbolic victory. In my opinion, the return of the AL-NURI Mosque and AL-HADBA Minaret to the IRAQI nation marks the end of the ISIS reign of terror in IRAQ. That is, the fall of MOSUL in effect marks the end of the IRAQI half of the ISIS caliphate, although the ISIS group still controls territory west and south of MOSUL city, ruling over hundreds of thousands of people. In my opinion, the ISIS Empire in IRAQ is slowly but surely falling as ISIS is now hanging on by a thread to its last ISIS strongholds in about half a dozen neighbourhoods around MOSUL. In my opinion, assuming that the KURDISH peshmerga, IRAQI army, SHIITE militia and some SUNNI militia forces continue to overlook their differences and stick together, ISIS will inevitably be decimated in IRAQ, although ISIS will likely survive as an incognito terrorist organization throughout the world. In my opinion, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. 

Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's future should be off the agenda for now and the main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace. 

In regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad watched as the cease-fire agreement signed last week that establishes four de-escalation zones was violated. In my opinion, although the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt, I believe that RUSSIAN and U.S. round-the-clock discussions anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control should be welcomed as a positive development in fully implementing the de-escalation zones. In my opinion, it is better for RUSSIA and the U.S. to try to work together to implement something in terms of de-escalation zones as opposed to sitting back and insuring that both parties achieve nothing. Thus, in regards to the International chemical weapons inspectors confirming that the nerve agent sarin was used in April’s deadly chemical attack in Syria’s IDLIB province in which 89 people died, representing one of the deadliest attacks in Syria in recent years that prompted the U.S. military to launch 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles at a Syrian airbase with the White House issuing a public warning this week that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad would pay a heavy price for using chemical weapons, time will tell what the heavy price will be. In my opinion, the heavy price will likely be a warrant for the arrest of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on the basis of war crimes in IDLIB that probably won’t be worth more than the paper it is written on as RUSSIA will not hand over Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to the war crimes tribunal. Therefore, in my opinion, we will most likely see excessive legal wrangling in the future regarding the IDLIB massacre producing an arrest warrant for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that in essence will never be served as long as long as Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is in power as the U.S. can threaten ramifications to their hearts content but to the extent RUSSIA backs Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, all threats will be like echoes in the wind eventually getting lost amongst the mountains. In regards to U.S. backed fighters surrounding the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA, capturing RAQQA would be a major achievement in the battle against ISIS and help bring an end to ISIS’s reign of terror trying to create a so-called Caliphate. In my opinion, ISIS has used Raqqa for over three years to stage deadly attacks on the Middle East and further overseas such that capturing RAQQA from ISIS would significantly reduce ISIS’s terrorist capabilities in the future. In my opinion, ISIS and other various Radical Gangster Terrorist organizations consisting of HAYAT TAHRIR AL-SHAM, JABHAT FATEH AL-SHAM, AL QAEDA, NUSRA FRONT, AHRAR AL-SHAM and ALL FULL OF SHIT GANGSTER SHAM are all run old school GANGSTER style except that they all hide behind ISLAM as a smokescreen to convert their criminal organizations into religious sanctuaries. However, it is clear to me that none of these groups practice ISLAM, which translates to peace, but rather all of these groups practice their own self-created religion of capitalist opportunistic SHAM SCAM BRAINWASH RAM. Therefore, in my opinion, whenever there is an uprising by one of these Radical Gangster Terrorist organizations, there is a need for rapid intervention to contain the poison before it spreads and the mass at large become psychologically brain dead. 

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 253” as the belief that MOSUL and RAQQA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace albeit new reality of perpetual juggling of personal, financial and political interests to deal with pent-up frustrations and never ending disputes and conflicts in an attempt to control the circus act before it spirals out of control and the entire region is engulfed in civil wars.

Spirit of John Lennon – Kurdish Guerrilla Song:  

July 2, 2017

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 252

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 252 

During the week ending on Sunday, June 25, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants. Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures by declaring that TURKISH schoolchildren will no longer be taught about evolution on the basis that Charles Darwin’s theory of evolution was controversial and would thus be removed from school programmes by 2019. In TURKEY’s opinion, students in the ninth grade are not mature enough to discuss the Origin of Life and Evolution section in biology classes such that this section will be delayed until undergraduate studies. Meanwhile, TURKEY rejected a key demand by several ARAB states involved in a major dispute with QATAR to shut down TURKEY’s military base in the small GULF country. Ironically, rather than focusing narrowly on alleged QATARI financing of extremism, the 13 point catalogue of demands consists of sweeping changes in direction that QATAR's neighbours are insisting the tiny, gas-rich nation must undertake to align itself with SAUDI ARABIA’s broader vision for the region. Although QATAR is likely to reject the 13-point catalogue, the list answers the growing call from the U.S. and from QATAR for the countries to put their grievances in writing. As a friendly reminder, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain broke ties with QATAR and restricted access to land, sea and air routes earlier this month over allegations QATAR funds terrorism, an accusation QATAR rejects but that U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated to lend support to the Arab states in dispute with QATAR. The move has left QATAR, whose only land border is shared with SAUDI ARABIA, under a de facto blockade by its neighbours. 

Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and US-led ALLIANCE forces continued with their offensive against ISIS on MOSUL as IRAQI and ALLIED forces managed to push ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces appear to have liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety. As a friendly reminder, MOSUL is divided by the Tigris River with both east and west sides respectively making up about half of the population of MOSUL. Elite ALLIANCE forces managed to fight through an elaborate defense system formed by ISIS over the past two years, that kept ALLIANCE forces out while contemporaneously keeping the residents of MOSUL trapped in as captives, by recapturing east MOSUL in its entirety while being at the cusp of controlling west MOSUL in the short-term. On an unusual note, this week in a series of lightning fast advances, ALLIANCE forces seized further control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS as IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS pushing ISIS into sheer desperation as ISIS blew up the GREAT MOSQUE of AL-NURI and its famous leaning minaret in a desperate attempt by ISIS to stop advancing IRAQI troops. IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi says the destruction of the ancient mosque in the city of MOSUL is an official declaration of defeat by ISIS. As a friendly reminder, the mosque, which was more than 800 years old, was where in July 2014 ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi demanded allegiance in his first and only public appearance following the declaration days earlier of a caliphate. The IRAQI commander in charge of the offensive to retake MOSUL claims that troops were within 160 feet of the mosque when ISIS committed another historical crime by demolishing this ancient landmark that ISIS had rigged with explosives to stop the advance of IRAQI troops. In a strange record-breaking event, a sniper with Canada’s elite Special Forces in IRAQ shattered the world’s record for longest confirmed kill from a staggering distance of 3,450 metres. The Glode and Mail reported that a member of the Canadian elite Special Forces killed an ISIS terrorist with a McMillan TAC-50 sniper rifle. However, the sniper did not expect to hit the target at such a distance but rather was hoping that his harassing fire would frighten ISIS militants to flee. However, the sniper was actually able to kill one of the ISIS fighters so that the ensuing engagement disrupted the ISIS attack allowing IRAQI Security forces to continue the advance with ISIS disoriented. 

Moving on to SYRIA, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire peace process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks. Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN regime carried out the chemical attacks. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week although TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA signed an agreement at the SYRIAN cease-fire talks in KAZAKHSTAN two weeks ago calling for the creation of four de-escalation zones in SYRIA that represent the latest attempt by all key players in the region to reduce the violence in SYRIA including the commitment by President Bashar al-Assad that the SYRIAN air force will halt flights over the designated areas in SYRIA. Unfortunately, the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt albeit Russia and the U.S. continuing to discuss the situation in round-the-clock mode anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control. Tensions escalated this week as a U.S. fighter jet shot down a SYRIAN warplane after it dropped bombs near local ground forces supported by the U.S. that represents the first time the U.S. military has downed a SYRIAN aircraft since the start of the civil war in 2011. Russia seems to have quickly retaliated as a RUSSIAN jet came within five feet of a U.S. reconnaissance plane near the Baltic Sea and acted provocatively by performing unsafe manoeuvres. Russia’s Defense Ministry, however, denied RUSSIAN forces were at fault and instead blamed the U.S. spy plane for making a provocative turn towards the RUSSIAN jet. Meanwhile, U.S. led ALLIANCE air strikes on two SYRIAN provinces targeting ISIS militants have killed 472 civilians over the past month, more than double that of the previous thirty-day period. 222 civilians, including 84 children, were killed in the largely ISIS held province of DEIR EZZOR while 250 civilians, including 53 children, were killed in RAQQA where U.S. backed forces are trying to oust ISIS militants from their stronghold in SYRIA bringing the overall civilian toll from the ALLIANCE's campaign to 1,953, including 456 children and 333 women. 

In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders. 

Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Ironically, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures, as TURKISH schoolchildren will no longer be taught about evolution in yet another sign of the conservative direction TURKEY is heading in under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In my opinion, this move by TURKEY is part of a hardline application of Islamism throughout TURKEY moving TURKEY into the same category as SAUDI ARABIA, where the deeply religious curriculum forbids the teaching of evolution. In my opinion, TURKEY is reinforcing its Muslim roots whereby The Quran, like the Bible, teaches that Adam and Eve were the first humans whereby God created Adam from Clay and then formed Eve, also known as Hawwa, from Adam. However, in my opinion although the Theory Of Evolution is not widely accepted among religious Muslims in TURKEY, I believe that the Theory Of Evolution is not incompatible with the Quran and Bible’s teachings such that this gesture by TURKEY is symbolic of the return of TURKEY to a deeply religious Islamic state. In regards to TURKEY rejecting a key demand by several ARAB states involved in a major dispute with QATAR to shut down TURKEY’s military base in the small GULF country, I agree with TURKEY’s decision to side with QATAR in this dispute where tiny, gas-rich QATAR found itself on the defense against its much larger neighbours consisting of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. In my opinion, TURKEY made the right decision to side with QATAR as otherwise QATAR would have been crushed by the sheer might of its neighbours and from my point-of-view, it looks like QATAR’s neighbours are trying to force QATAR to bend to their will on a much broader set of issues. Furthermore, there appears to be ulterior motives behind the moves of QATAR’s neighbours who want QATAR to align itself politically, economically and otherwise with the Gulf Cooperation Council, a regional club that has focused on countering the influence of IRAN. However, Saudi Arabia and other Sunni-led nations have accused QATAR of inappropriately close ties with IRAN, a Shia-led country and Saudi Arabia’s primary opposition in the region. In my opinion, QATAR has been supplied with an impossible list to be met because the list interferes with QATAR’s foreign policy while QATAR rightfully considers QATAR’s foreign policy a sovereign matter that is not negotiable. In regards to U.S. President Donald Trump throwing his support behind Saudi Arabia, this seems to go against previous U.S. foreign policies as concerns QATAR as there has been a longstanding relationship between the U.S. and QATAR who hosts over 10,000 U.S. military personnel on the biggest airbase in the Middle East. Thus, U.S. President Donald Trump might be unconsciously influenced by previous failed business dealings with QATAR businessmen that expose U.S. President Donald Trump to preconceived biases that QATAR supports terrorism. Ironically, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin’s reaction to the Qatar crisis was a quick support for Qatar although avoiding any criticism of Saudi Arabia. However, this further reflects the complexity of the geopolitical landscape in the region as personal, financial and political interests cross in unusual directions such that the only certainty is the certainty that there will be perpetual disputes that are best resolved via negotiations. In summary, we have all seen that when the dominant parties in the region choose the path of war, the disputes never seem to end with respective sides relentlessly exchanging blows always trying to even the never ending score. 

Moving on to IRAQ, the recent successful attacks on ISIS by IRAQI security forces in MOSUL, has clearly sent the message to ISIS that it is just a matter of time until the ISIS Empire in MOSUL dies. However, the IRAQI led troops on the ground are essentially forced to fight ISIS style, which is slow and brutal for any other type of heavy artillery attack on ISIS, will result in significant collateral damage in terms of human casualties. Therefore, the ALLIANCE forces recapture of eastern MOSUL in its entirety has triggered a lightning fast momentum as ALLIANCE forces managed to seize control of major parts of Western MOSUL although in my opinion, the last of the fighting will most probably be a lot more difficult. In my opinion, ISIS will cling on to the oldest parts of MOSUL city where streets are narrow making it hard to manoeuvre military convoys and thus increasing the risk of ambushes and civilian casualties. Therefore, it is not surprising to see that ALLIANCE forces are having a difficult time to fully retake control of central MOSUL’s OLD CITY but this struggle is unfortunately necessary to secure the entire province of MOSUL such that patience is of utmost importance as ALLIANCE forces must continue with their relentless yet prudent attacks until ALL ISIS snipers have been eliminated. In regards to new IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS pushing ISIS into sheer desperation as ISIS blew up the GREAT MOSQUE of AL-NURI and its famous leaning minaret in a desperate attempt by ISIS to stop advancing IRAQI troops, this merely solidifies what everybody already knew about ISIS that ISIS would fight until death to defend its caliphate, even if it meant destroying the very mosque in which the ISIS caliphate was declared. Therefore, it is expected that ISIS will continue to fight on until the very end with whatever ammunition ISIS has left to inflict maximum punishment and maximum damage before ISIS ultimately looses its entire stranglehold on MOSUL. In regards to the strange record-breaking event whereby a sniper with Canada’s elite Special Forces in IRAQ shattered the world’s record for longest confirmed kill from a staggering distance of 3,450 metres resulting in an ISIS fighter being eliminated and ISIS disoriented by the hit, surprising but nonetheless impressive to see military interventions at their best, with talented snipers able to take miracle shots, disorienting ISIS to the point that ISIS unable to regroup for the following ALLIANCE onslaught. In my opinion, assuming that the KURDISH peshmerga, IRAQI army, SHIITE militia and some SUNNI militia forces continue to overlook their differences and stick together, ISIS will inevitably be decimated in IRAQ, although ISIS will likely survive as an incognito terrorist organization throughout the world. In my opinion, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. 

Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's future should be off the agenda for now and the main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace. 

In regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad watched as the cease-fire agreement signed last week that establishes four de-escalation zones was violated. In my opinion, although the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt, I believe that RUSSIAN and U.S. round-the-clock discussions anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control should be welcomed as a positive development in fully implementing the de-escalation zones. In my opinion, it is better for RUSSIA and the U.S. to try to work together to implement something in terms of de-escalation zones as opposed to sitting back and insuring that both parties achieve nothing. Thus, in regards to a U.S. fighter jet shooting down a SYRIAN warplane after it dropped bombs near local ground forces supported by the U.S., the confrontation represents a further escalation between forces supporting President Bashar al-Assad and the U.S. that has been directing the military campaign in SYRIA against ISIS. In my opinion, although Russia seems to have quickly retaliated as a RUSSIAN jet came within five feet of a U.S. reconnaissance plane near the Baltic Sea and acted provocatively by performing unsafe manoeuvres, it is not surprising that Russia’s Defense Ministry, denied RUSSIAN forces were at fault and instead blamed the U.S. spy plane for making a provocative turn towards the RUSSIAN jet. That being said, it is a shame to once again see the overall civilian toll from the ALLIANCE’s recent campaign in SYRIA in DEIR EZZOR and RAQQA of 1,953, including 456 children and 333 women albeit the reflection of the realities of war. In my opinion, even the ALLIANCE forces realize that war is not some kind of a videogame where nobody gets hurt such that war is a terrible thing that should only be utilized as the final course of action and never the first. However, when war is necessary as it is by the ALLIANCE against ISIS, fighting back with honor, courage and determination to win will unfortunately result with collateral damage. Nonetheless, in my opinion, collateral damage is never in vain for the battle for the freedom of rights to one’s culture, race, religion and language such that ALLIANCE forced need to press on while paying their respects to those unfortunately caught in the crossfire with the ISIS dements. That being said, it seems that the U.S. may be inadvertently sliding into a far bigger role in the SYRIAN civil war than it had initially intended. In my opinion, with each ALLIANCE strike, the U.S. owns more of the conflict in SYRIA without specifying a military strategy so that the U.S. is essentially sleepwalking into a much broader military mandate without saying what the U.S. plans to do afterwards. However, when dealing with an envious, jealous, greedy, ferocious, viscous and malicious Satanist Hater psychotic neurotic lunatic organization like ISIS, it is very difficult to develop a military strategy other than the strategy of taking ISIS out whenever it makes sense to do so from a cost/benefit perspective. In simple English, the U.S. strategy against ISIS seems to be that when ISIS can be hit hard while minimizing collateral damage, ISIS should be hit relentlessly until ISIS is taken out of the game after which the secession planning for ascension to the throne of grace cannot be worse than the ISIS GANGSTER mercenary face. 

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 252” as the belief that MOSUL victory is critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace albeit U.S. collateral damage in strikes on ISIS in DEIR EZZOR and RAQQA without secession planning for ascension to the throne of grace other than cannot be worse than the ISIS GANGSTER mercenary face. 

Spirit of John Lennon – Kurdish Guerrilla Song:  

June 25, 2017

Change Management – Part 34

Change Management Fundamental Basics “Gangnam THE ROCK Style” – Part 34

Christiano will learn over time that during periods of change, organizations should promote the belief that it is better to confront “Dirty Competition” upfront, be it transvestite, boy or girl, before everyone enters the façade swirl followed by pent-up frustrations exploding into hurls. 

In my opinion, organizations need to embrace the notion that during periods of change it is critical to insure that policies and procedures are in place to remedy early symptoms of “Dirty Competition” generally resulting from the perception of a threat to one’s head. 

It is important for organizations to acknowledge that the perception of a threat to one’s head is the underlying reality of a major change situation regardless of whether or not this threat is real in fact or just an imaginary act. 

That is, when one is afraid that their head may fly, there is a risk that “Dirty Competition” kicks-in as everybody wants to protect their ass and be the last one standing when major changes come to pass.

To further complicate this matter, one needs to factor in external factors such as the economic environment, availability of viable comparable alternatives and the reality of personal finances. 

In general, there is a direct relationship between these factors and “Dirty Competition” such that the worse the economic situation, the worse the availability of alternatives and the lower the personal cash reserves of individuals, the higher the probability that “Dirty Competition” will kick-in. 

I define “Dirty Competition” as competition based on factors other than knowledge, skills, abilities, talents, performance, deliverability and results. 

In simple English, when we enter into the realm of “Dirty Competition”, the personal tends to kick-in whereby there tends to be non-justified personal attacks that are a symptom that there is a deviation from business at hand. 

Generally, in major change environments, all it takes is that first personal strike to unleash a domino effect of “Dirty Competition” as everybody within an organization starts to fight to survive and focuses on staying alive. 

Therefore, it is critical for Human Resources to identify such behaviours upfront and to put a stop to them quickly before they spiral out of control with everyone functioning in personal attack mode. 

If Human Resources do not put an end to “Dirty Competition” fast, there will tend to be the formation of clicks whereby various groups will start to form like armies at civil war. 

Thus, it is important for Human Resources to resolve “Dirty Competition” right away by reprimanding the responsible individuals accordingly before they go too far astray. 

Generally, the first strikes of “Dirty Competition” are manageable and can be resolved quickly with a simple reprimand to the individual or individuals who appear to be in “Dirty Competition” mode before an entire organization becomes infested and everybody starts to explode. 

However, in practice often times, the symptoms tend to be ignored at the outset due to the distaste to confront issues upfront and in the open as no one wants to be seen as the bad guy or bad girl such that everyone tends to prefer to enter the façade swirl. 

In summary, I refer to “Change Management Gangnam THE ROCK Style” as the belief that it is better to confront “Dirty Competition” upfront, be it transvestite, boy or girl, before everyone enters the façade swirl. 

Christiano Says, “WHO Is Gangnam THE ROCK Style – Talk Dirty?”