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Saturday, June 17, 2017
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 251
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 251
During the week ending on Sunday, June 18, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants. Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as a TURKISH court sentenced Enis Berberoglu, a Republican People’s party (CHP) MP to 25 years in prison over his alleged leaking of state secrets to the daily opposition newspaper CUMHURIYET. Obviously, this twenty-five year sentence sparked outrage amongst the TURKISH opposition ranks as Turkey’s main opposition party begun a march from TURKEY’s capital, ANKARA, to its largest city, ISTANBUL, to protest against the imprisonment. Hundreds of protesters appeared to have joined the march, carrying banners that said “adalet” or “justice” as they set out on the 280-mile (450 km) trek that will take them to MALTEPE prison, where Enis Berberoglu has been incarcerated. The story concerned an incident in 2014 when the TURKISH army intercepted vehicles bound for the SYRIAN border belonging to the National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) that were supposed to be carrying humanitarian aid but were instead carrying arms. In addition, TURKEY convicted Judge Aydin Sefa Akay, from the UN's Mechanism for International Criminal Tribunals, of being a member of a designated terrorist group. However, the United Nations says TURKEY’s decision to convict one its judges is a breach of both diplomatic immunity and a binding legal order. Nonetheless, Judge Aydin Sefa Akay faces more than seven years in prison if an appeal fails after having been convicted of membership in the Fethullah Gulen movement founded by exiled Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen. Although Judge Aydin has been released pending an appeal, his passport has been confiscated and he is banned from leaving TURKEY.
Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and US-led ALLIANCE forces continued with their offensive against ISIS on MOSUL as IRAQI and ALLIED forces managed to push ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces appear to have liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety. As a friendly reminder, MOSUL is divided by the Tigris River with both east and west sides respectively making up about half of the population of MOSUL. Elite ALLIANCE forces managed to fight through an elaborate defense system formed by ISIS over the past two years, that kept ALLIANCE forces out while contemporaneously keeping the residents of MOSUL trapped in as captives, by recapturing east MOSUL in its entirety while being at the cusp of controlling west MOSUL in the short-term. On a positive note, this week in a series of lightning fast advances, ALLIANCE forces seized further control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS as IRAQI forces were close to completing the encirclement of ISIS’s stronghold in the Old MOSUL City after taking control of a neighbouring district. IRAQ’s military said it had captured BAB SINJAR, north of the historic, densely populated district where ISIS launched their cross-border caliphate in 2014. IRAQI forces and their allies still have to take full control of Medical City, a complex of hospitals further north along the bank of the TIGRIS, to enclose the ISIS enclave. On another positive note, the U.S. led air strikes intensified as the ALLIANCE conducted seven strikes consisting of 39 engagements against ISIS targets consisting of: (i) HUWAYJAH: Two strikes on an ISIS tactical unit that destroyed an ISIS boat and an ISIS staging area; (ii) QAIM: One strike destroyed a vehicle bomb factory; (iii) TAL AFAR: One strike destroyed a mortar system; AND (iv) MOSUL: Three strikes on three ISIS tactical units destroyed seven fighting positions, two tunnels, a mortar system and a machine gun firing system.
Moving on to SYRIA, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire peace process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks. Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN regime carried out the chemical attacks. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week although TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA signed an agreement at the SYRIAN cease-fire talks in KAZAKHSTAN two weeks ago calling for the creation of four de-escalation zones in SYRIA that represent the latest attempt by all key players in the region to reduce the violence in SYRIA including the commitment by President Bashar al-Assad that the SYRIAN air force will halt flights over the designated areas in SYRIA. Unfortunately, the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt albeit Russia and the U.S. continuing to discuss the situation in round-the-clock mode anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, criticized the U.S. deployment of multiple rocket launchers in southern SYRIA on the basis that they were intended to cut off SYRIAN government troops from allies in IRAQ since there were no ISIS militants in the region to target with these weapons. It seems that the U.S. deployed its High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) in southern SYRIA, close to the border with JORDAN whereby the powerful truck mounted launchers arrived from JORDAN to the city of AT TANF this week while AT TANF continues to serve as a base for militia forces trained by U.S. instructors. On a positive note, Russia’s defence ministry claimed RUSSIA might have killed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the elusive leader of ISIS, in an air strike in Syria. RUSSIA’s defence ministry said RUSSIAN fighter jets struck an ISIS command post near the city of RAQQA, as leaders of the ISIS GROUP were meeting on May 28, killing more than 300 militants. According to information that is now being independently verified, also present at the meeting was ISIS leader ABU BAKR AL-BAGHDADI, who was killed as a result of the strike. RUSSIA confirmed that high-ranking commanders of the ISIS terrorist group, who were part of the so-called military council of ISIS, as well as about 30 mid-level field commanders and up to 300 fighters in charge of their personal protection, were killed as part of the RUSSIAN operation.
In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders.
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Ironically, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as a TURKISH court sentenced Enis Berberoglu, a Republican People’s party (CHP) MP to 25 years in prison over his alleged leaking of state secrets to the daily opposition newspaper CUMHURIYET. In my opinion, the ensuing march by the opposition from TURKEY’s capital, ANKARA, to its largest city, ISTANBUL, to protest against the imprisonment is more than justified as the opposition seems to be subject to dictatorial rule without any justice as the twenty five year jail term seems excessive for the alleged crimes of transporting arms as part of a humanitarian aid convoy to SYRIA combined with evidence which cannot be described as substantive. It boggles my mind how TURKEY is able to impose such harsh penalties based on evidence that can be described at best as circumstantial in the sense that TURKEY applies significant hypotheses and assumptions to land credence to evidence that would be ignored by a judge in an international court on the basis of being circumstantial in nature. For example, if one approves a shipment of humanitarian aid for which there later happens to be arms hidden inside, the person approving the shipment cannot automatically be found guilty unless it can be proven that they was aware of the arms as well. Therefore, in an international court, there would have to be some sort of substantive evidence such as a memo discussing the arms in particular linked to the specific TURKISH MP to support a guilty verdict and not merely the assumption that because the TURKISH MP Approved the humanitarian aid convoy, they must have also approved the arms shipment buried inside. In regards to TURKEY convicting Judge Aydin Sefa Akay, from the UN's Mechanism for International Criminal Tribunals, of being a member of a designated terrorist group, the Fethullah Gulen movement, the seven year sentence is quite severe although he has been released pending an appeal although he is banned from leaving TURKEY. In my opinion, Judge Aydin Sefa Akay should be released immediately as TURKEY’s actions are in breach of JUDGE AKAY’s protected status under the international UN legal framework for which the UN has issued a court order to TURKEY. However, TURKEY continues to be resilient in applying TURKISH law on anyone remotely connected to the Fethullah Gulen movement such that even an educated JUDGE AKAY who was using the encrypted communication service BYLOCK was considered guilty by association to the BYLOCK software. In my opinion, JUDGE AKAY was clearly using the BYLOCK software for other work related purposes regarding the review of the 30-year sentence given to Augustin Ngirabatware, a former Rwandan planning minister, by the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda such that it is preposterous to pin JUDGE AKAY for using BYLOCK. However, this is just another example of how TURKEY is applying justice authoritarian style based on the principal of “Guilty Until Proven Innocent” whereas international law clearly advocates the notion of “Innocent Until Proven Guilty”.
Moving on to IRAQ, the recent successful attacks on ISIS by IRAQI security forces in MOSUL, has clearly sent the message to ISIS that it is just a matter of time until the ISIS Empire in MOSUL dies. However, the IRAQI led troops on the ground are essentially forced to fight ISIS style, which is slow and brutal for any other type of heavy artillery attack on ISIS, will result in significant collateral damage in terms of human casualties. Therefore, the ALLIANCE forces recapture of eastern MOSUL in its entirety has triggered a lightning fast momentum as ALLIANCE forces managed to seize control of major parts of Western MOSUL although in my opinion, the last of the fighting will most probably be a lot more difficult. In my opinion, ISIS will cling on to the oldest parts of MOSUL city where streets are narrow making it hard to manoeuvre military convoys and thus increasing the risk of ambushes and civilian casualties. Therefore, it is not surprising to see that ALLIANCE forces are having a difficult time to fully retake control of central MOSUL’s OLD CITY but this struggle is unfortunately necessary to secure the entire province of MOSUL such that patience is of utmost importance as ALLIANCE forces must continue with their relentless yet prudent attacks until ALL ISIS snipers have been eliminated. In regards to new IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI forces were close to completing the encirclement of ISIS’s stronghold in the Old MOSUL City, this is the critical step for IRAQI forces to finally be in a position to squeeze out the remaining ISIS resistance, by essentially trapping ISIS in a large cage such that ISIS’s living space will continue to be constrained, until there is no more space for ISIS to breath another day. In regards to the U.S. led air strikes intensifying as the ALLIANCE conducted seven strikes consisting of 39 engagements against ISIS targets, this is another critical success factor to victory as the pounding from the air represents the competitive advantage of ALLIANCE forces on the ground who are unable to mount any sort of military formations to defend themselves whereby when ISIS members are exposed, they have in essence become sitting ducks just waiting to be plucked.
Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's future should be off the agenda for now and the main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace.
In regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad watched as the cease-fire agreement signed last week that establishes four de-escalation zones was violated. In my opinion, although the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt, I believe that RUSSIAN and U.S. round-the-clock discussions anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control should be welcomed as a positive development in fully implementing the de-escalation zones. In my opinion, it is better for RUSSIA and the U.S. to try to work together to implement something in terms of de-escalation zones as opposed to sitting back and insuring that both parties achieve nothing. That being said, it is a shame to once again see geopolitical manouvering as Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, criticized the U.S. deployment of multiple rocket launchers in southern SYRIA on the basis that they were intended to cut off SYRIAN government troops from allies in IRAQ since there were no ISIS militants in the region to target with these weapons. In my opinion, Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov’s criticism seems to be valid as the presence of the launchers near AT TANF cannot be justified by a need to fight ISIS terrorists as there are no ISIS troops remaining around that area. Therefore, it seems to me that placing such powerful weapons in AT TANF where the weapons are not positioned well to fight ISIS is an attempt by the ALLIANCE to create an additional military force for geopolitical reasons other than an imminent threat from ISIS. In my opinion, the positioning of the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) in southern SYRIA would prevent the creation of stable distribution channels between the SYRIAN government and other pro-government forces in SYRIA with their partners in neighbouring IRAQ. Therefore, it seems to me that once again rather than creating a single front for the fight against terrorism, there is a double standard with another attempt at geopolitical manoeuvring for ultimate power and control. However, in my opinion both the U.S. led alliance and the Russian backed SYRIAN regime play the same game at different moments depending on their beneficial personal, financial and political interests so that I must conclude that these geopolitical games are here to forever stay so everybody needs to by the same rules play or be left astray. In regards to Russia’s defence ministry claim that RUSSIA might have killed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the elusive leader of ISIS, in an air strike in Syria, it is my opinion that based on the information presented, RUSSIA cannot confirm with 100% certainty that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed. In my opinion, there is only a Russian Roulette 50% probability that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed as the Godfather of ISIS has been pronounced dead several times before, only to resurface again, such that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi seems to be like a cat with nine lives. Furthermore, ISIS usually acknowledges the deaths of its leaders, celebrating them as martyrs, but ISIS supporters have not thus far made any claim of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi death. However, I believe Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s death is irrelevant as even if he was killed, there are plenty of loyal ISIS militants ready, willing and able to replace Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi at the helm given that ISIS still controls a considerable amount of wealth such that there are plenty of ISIS Satanist Haters with big stakes that would love to control the head of the ISIS snake.
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 251” as the belief that MOSUL victory is critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace albeit uncertainty regarding ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s death as even if the Godfather of ISIS is gone, ISIS still controls a considerable amount of wealth such that there are plenty of ISIS Satanist Haters with big stakes that would love to control the head of the ISIS snake.
Spirit of John Lennon – Kurdish Guerrilla Song:
June 18, 2017
Sunday, June 11, 2017
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Saturday, June 10, 2017
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 250
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 250
During the week ending on Sunday, June 11, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants. Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKEY detained the chairman of Amnesty International, Taner Kilic, in the western city of IZMIR along with 22 other lawyers over alleged links to the FETHULLAH GULEN movement, an organisation that TURKEY blames for last year’s failed “Coup D’État”. As a friendly reminder, FETHULLAH GULEN is the leader of a widespread and influential religious movement known as HIZMET, which owns foundations, associations, media organisations and schools in TURKEY and abroad who has lived in self-imposed exile in the United States since 1999. Amnesty International condemned the move by TURKISH authorities after Taner Kilic’s arrest and search of his home and office by the TURKISH police. TURKISH media said Taner Kilic was detained for using “BYLOCK” that is encrypted communication software that members of the outlawed FETHULLAH GULEN GROUP use according to the TURKISH government. Meanwhile, TURKEY’s parliament approved legislation allowing TURKISH troops to be deployed to a TURKISH military base in QATAR in an apparent show of support for QATAR as QATAR faces diplomatic and trade isolation from some of the biggest Middle Eastern powers. That is, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain severed relations with QATAR and closed their airspace to commercial flights accusing QATAR with financing extremist groups although QATAR vehemently denies the accusations. Therefore, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has criticised the Arab states’ move, saying that isolating QATAR and imposing sanctions will not resolve any problems with QATAR while adding that TURKEY will do everything in TURKISH power to help end the QATAR crisis. SAUDI ARABIA’s Foreign Minister, Adel al-Jubeir, laid down several steps for QATAR to restore ties with ARAB allies, namely that QATAR must end QATAR’s support for the Palestinian group HAMAS and the Muslim Brotherhood before ties with other Arab Gulf states can be restored.
Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and US-led ALLIANCE forces continued with their offensive against ISIS on MOSUL as IRAQI and ALLIED forces managed to push ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces appear to have liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety. As a friendly reminder, MOSUL is divided by the Tigris River with both east and west sides respectively making up about half of the population of MOSUL. Elite ALLIANCE forces managed to fight through an elaborate defense system formed by ISIS over the past two years, that kept ALLIANCE forces out while contemporaneously keeping the residents of MOSUL trapped in as captives, by recapturing east MOSUL in its entirety while being at the cusp of controlling west MOSUL in the short-term. On a positive note, this week in a series of lightning fast advances, ALLIANCE forces seized further control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS as a prominent ISIS leader, Ahmed Hashim Hamid, known as the second in command in the region, was killed in western Mosul by ALLIANCE forces. In addition, 34 ISIS militants, including a leader called ABU BARAA AL-TOUNSI, in charge of explosives manufacturing workshops in the Old MOSUL City, were killed during armed confrontations on the AL-ZANJILI district in western MOSUL. Meanwhile, unknown gunmen killed five ISIS militants at an enclave that is still under ISIS’s control west of MOSUL whereby the gunmen were aboard three pickup trucks when they attacked an ISIS checkpoint in central TAL AFAR. The attack threw ISIS into confusion but ISIS was not able to take any retaliatory actions against the unknown gunmen since many of their superior ISIS leaders had already fled the town and ISIS found itself in disarray.
Moving on to SYRIA, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire peace process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks. Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN regime carried out the chemical attacks. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week although TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA signed an agreement at the SYRIAN cease-fire talks in KAZAKHSTAN two weeks ago calling for the creation of four de-escalation zones in SYRIA that represent the latest attempt by all key players in the region to reduce the violence in SYRIA including the commitment by President Bashar al-Assad that the SYRIAN air force will halt flights over the designated areas in SYRIA. Unfortunately, the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt albeit Russia and the U.S. continuing to discuss the situation in round-the-clock mode anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control. Meanwhile, U.S. aircraft shot down an IRANIAN made drone that fired on ALLIANCE forces patrolling in southern SYRIA, within one of the de-escalation zones, that represents the first time that pro-SYRIAN regime forces, which the US says includes IRANIAN-backed SHIA militias, have fired on the US-led ALLIANCE. The U.S. F-15 jet shot down the IRANIAN-made SHAHED 129 drone that was being controlled from a location in SYRIA after it dropped one of several weapons it was carrying near an ALLIANCE position training and advising LOCAL ground forces in the fight against ISIS although the munitions did not have an impact on ALLIANCE forces. The U.S. led ALLIANCE forces also conducted another airstrike against SYRIAN regime forces in the de-escalation zone around the ALLIANCE AT TANF base after three vehicles were observed crossing into the de-escalation zone. On a positive note, KURDISH and ARAB forces backed by the U.S. entered ISIS’s de facto capital of RAQQA, setting the stage for what could be a months-long military campaign to reclaim ISIS’s largest stronghold remaining in SYRIA. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a coalition of KURDISH and ARAB fighters, breached the outer city limits of RAQQA, seizing a 1,000 year-old fortress in the west and a neighbourhood on the eastern side of RAQQA quickly from the start of the offensive this week. However, RAQQA to ISIS is the capital of the ISIS caliphate such that ISIS has fortified RAQQA to a great extent although the operation, code named Operation Wrath of Euphrates, will eventually deprive ISIS of its second largest city after MOSUL in IRAQ.
In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders.
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Ironically, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKEY detained the chairman of Amnesty International, Taner Kilic, along with 22 other lawyers over alleged links to the FETHULLAH GULEN movement that TURKEY blames for last year’s failed “Coup D’État”. In my opinion, the fact that TURKEY's post “Coup D’État” purge has now gone after the chair of Amnesty International in TURKEY only reinforces how far TURKEY has gone with authoritarian rule and just how unpredictable TURKEY has become in the sense that nobody saw the arrest of Taner Kilic coming. In my opinion, TURKEY once again appears to be applying the authoritarian principle of “Guilty Until Proven Innocent” as opposed to the democratic principal of “Innocent Until Proven Guilty” such that unless TURKEY has credible and admissible evidence of Taner Kilic along with the other 22 lawyers involvement in any internationally recognised crimes, TURKEY needs to immediately release TANER KILIC along with the other 22 lawyers and drop all charges against them under international laws governing agents of Amnesty International. In my opinion, detaining them for using “BYLOCK” that is encrypted communication software that members of the outlawed FETHULLAH GULEN GROUP also use is insufficient grounds for arrests as the underlying software itself is not illegal and is used by many organizations other than the FETHULLAH GULEN GROUP. Therefore, from my point-of-view, these arrests and purges appear to be arbitrary with the TURKISH government using the failed “Coup D’État” as a pretext to silence opposition in the country including any figures from internationally recognized organizations such as Amnesty International. In regards to TURKEY vowing to do everything in TURKISH power to help end the QATAR crisis after Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain severed relations with QATAR and closed their airspace to commercial flights accusing QATAR with financing extremist groups although QATAR vehemently denies the accusations, in my opinion TURKEY has made the right decision to support QATAR. In my opinion, this is the worst split between powerful Arab states in decades such that TURKEY is in the best position to intervene as TURKEY is SUNNI Muslim dominated while QATAR is known to support the SHIA Muslim Palestinian group HAMAS and the Muslim Brotherhood also heavily SHIA based. Furthermore, although HAMAS continues to be an extremist organization, the Muslim Brotherhood seems to have evolved significantly over the years such that today they do not seem to be a revolutionary movement nor do they appear to display any inclinations toward pursuing radical change. In my opinion, QATAR is actually a good broker for HAMAS and the Muslim Brotherhood such that to the extent QATAR also hosts the largest U.S. air base in the Middle East; I do not see QATAR as a threat to peace in the Middle East due to its ties with HAMAS and the Muslim Brotherhood. To the contrary, I see QATAR as the best broker for HAMAS and the Muslim Brotherhood to the extent QATAR’s financing of HAMAS in particular is limited to the war in SYRIA as everybody severing relations with QATAR consisting of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain are also financing the war in SYRIA on the opposing side including far right factions similar to HAMAS. Therefore, either ALL Parties stop financing extremist factions in SYRIA or QATAR should not be isolated solely for this reason but rather there must be concrete evidence that QATAR is financing HAMAS outside of SYRIA for other than humanitarian aid purposes.
Moving on to IRAQ, the recent successful attacks on ISIS by IRAQI security forces in MOSUL, has clearly sent the message to ISIS that it is just a matter of time until the ISIS Empire in MOSUL dies. However, the IRAQI led troops on the ground are essentially forced to fight ISIS style, which is slow and brutal for any other type of heavy artillery attack on ISIS, will result in significant collateral damage in terms of human casualties. Therefore, the ALLIANCE forces recapture of eastern MOSUL in its entirety has triggered a lightning fast momentum as ALLIANCE forces managed to seize control of major parts of Western MOSUL although in my opinion, the last of the fighting will most probably be a lot more difficult. In my opinion, ISIS will cling on to the oldest parts of MOSUL city where streets are narrow making it hard to manoeuvre military convoys and thus increasing the risk of ambushes and civilian casualties. Therefore, it is not surprising to see that ALLIANCE forces are having a difficult time to fully retake control of central MOSUL’s OLD CITY but this struggle is unfortunately necessary to secure the entire province of MOSUL such that patience is of utmost importance as ALLIANCE forces must continue with their relentless yet prudent attacks until ALL ISIS snipers have been eliminated. In regards to new IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI forces took out prominent ISIS leader, Ahmed Hashim Hamid, known as the second in command in the region, along with 34 ISIS militants, including a leader called ABU BARAA AL-TOUNSI, in charge of explosives manufacturing workshops, this is the critical success factor to victory in the sense that the heads of the ISIS snake must be executed, one by one, for the ISIS empire to crumble to the ground in MOSUL. In regards to the unknown gunmen that killed five ISIS militants whereby the gunmen were aboard three pickup trucks when they attacked an ISIS checkpoint in central TAL AFAR, vigilante groups are extremely effective in mounting shock and awe attacks on ISIS as they are operating like ghosts whereby they come in and attack quickly before disappearing without a trace such that they are extremely effective in putting ISIS in complete disarray. In my opinion, there has been very little coverage of the vigilante group operating in IRAQ because nobody quite knows who they are or where they are from other than occasional reports about anonymous attacks targeting ISIS members inside and outside MOSUL. In my opinion, the vigilante group has been extremely successful since the launch of the offensive on MOSUL, especially at TAL AFAR, by striking ISIS hard leading to turmoil, divisions and infighting over ISIS leadership and ISIS field defeats as ISIS fights break out from within accusing each other of being responsible for the successful attacks mounted by the vigilantes. In my opinion, assuming that the KURDISH peshmerga, IRAQI army, SHIITE militia and some SUNNI militia forces continue to overlook their differences and stick together, ISIS will inevitably be decimated in IRAQ, although ISIS will likely survive as an incognito terrorist organization throughout the world. In my opinion, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations.
Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's future should be off the agenda for now and the main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace.
In regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad watched as the cease-fire agreement signed last week that establishes four de-escalation zones was violated. In my opinion, although the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt, I believe that RUSSIAN and U.S. round-the-clock discussions anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control should be welcomed as a positive development in fully implementing the de-escalation zones. In my opinion, it is better for RUSSIA and the U.S. to try to work together to implement something in terms of de-escalation zones as opposed to sitting back and insuring that both parties achieve nothing. That being said, it is a shame to once again see the SYRIAN regime and COALITION forces expending significant time and resources on each other as opposed to focusing on the war against the terrorist factions in SYRIA including ISIS, HAYAT TAHRIR AL-SHAM, JABHAT FATEH AL-SHAM, AL QAEDA, NUSRA FRONT, AHRAR AL-SHAM or ALL FULL OF SHIT GANGSTER SHAM who have zero interest in peace negotiations. The recent bitch slapping exercises between the U.S. led ALLIANCE and SYRIAN regime forces including IRAN’s SHIA militia operating around one of the de-escalation zones demonstrates the inherent tensions between major players in the region that continues to deflect resources from the war on ISIS and other terrorist factions representing the biggest risks to be contained. However, in my opinion, the U.S. made the right decision to not loose their mind but rather to reciprocate in kind while maintaining ALLIANCE focus on ISIS but being ready to defend ALLIANCE forces against any threat including SYRIAN regime forces. In my opinion, the key is to reciprocate in kind as the U.S. did by recognizing that the munitions dropped by the IRANIAN drone was a DUD which was interpreted as a show of force by those who fired it such that taking down the drone could be clearly interpreted by the SYRIAN regime that for every action within the de-escalation zone there will be an equal and opposing reaction. In my opinion, the U.S. led ALLIANCE and SYRIAN regime can send messages back and forth essentially flexing their respective muscles but it is clear to me that both sides are equally strong such that no side really has any competitive advantage worthy a full fledge onslaught.
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 250” as the belief that MOSUL victory is critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace albeit U.S. alliance and SYRIAN regime sending messages back and forth essentially flexing their respective muscles although it is clear that both sides are equally strong such that no side really has any competitive advantage worthy of a full fledge onslaught.
Spirit of John Lennon – Kurdish Guerrilla Song:
June 11, 2017
Saturday, June 3, 2017
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 249
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 249
During the week ending on Sunday, June 4, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants. Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKEY Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu made it clear that TURKEY will not open its INCIRLIK airbase to GERMAN lawmakers who want to meet GERMAN soldiers stationed there unless GERMANY takes some positive steps. However, GERMAN Chancellor Angela Merkel threatened TURKEY that GERMANY would withdraw soldiers from the airbase if GERMAN lawmakers were not allowed to visit. TURKEY reiterated that the base in the southern TURKISH province of KONYA is a NATO base but that INCIRLIK is solely a TURKISH base such that TURKEY has the final say on whether GERMAN lawmakers can visit INCIRLIK. Furthermore, TURKEY reiterated that GERMANY cannot take a hostile approach with TURKEY and that the days of GERMANY doing whatever GERMANY wants in TURKEY and getting whatever GERMANY wants from TURKEY are over after GERMANY’s negative attitude during TURKEY’s referendum that took place on April 16, 2017. As a friendly reminder, it appears that a last-minute decision by TURKEY’s electoral board to accept unstamped ballot papers created the risk of mass fraud. In addition, claims of vote rigging, especially in the KURDISH southeast, poured in while in a shocking assessment by observers from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the acceptance by TURKEY’s electoral board of unstamped ballot papers undermined an important safeguard and contradicted TURKISH laws. Unfortunately for TURKEY, there was no real decisive victor in this referendum with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan just crossing the 50% threshold by 1.4% which could very easily have been tainted with irregularities due to the controversial decision by the TURKISH electoral board to accept unstamped ballot papers such that GERMANY openly criticized TURKEY for these anomalies. Not surprisingly, GERMAN strong woman Chancellor Angela Merkel is now leading several EU countries to block TURKEY from hosting a NATO summit next year amid worsening relations with FRANCE, DENMARK and the NETHERLANDS backing the initiative to have a planned summit in TURKEY moved to NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium. In summary, eighteen of the NATO ALLIANCE’s European members and Canada are backing the demand as a message that the alliance will not give legitimacy to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s regime under his current authoritarian style of leadership. Ironically, RUSSIA agreed to lift most of the sanctions RUSSIA had imposed on TURKEY after the TURKISH military shot down a RUSSIAN fighter jet over the border with SYRIA over eighteen months ago as a sign of easing of tensions between RUSSIA and TURKEY after a long-running diplomatic spat that was seen as a test of resolve between the two strongmen, RUSSIA’s President Vladimir Putin and TURKEY’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and US-led ALLIANCE forces continued with their offensive against ISIS on MOSUL as IRAQI and ALLIED forces managed to push ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces appear to have liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety. As a friendly reminder, MOSUL is divided by the Tigris River with both east and west sides respectively making up about half of the population of MOSUL. Elite ALLIANCE forces managed to fight through an elaborate defense system formed by ISIS over the past two years, that kept ALLIANCE forces out while contemporaneously keeping the residents of MOSUL trapped in as captives, by recapturing east MOSUL in its entirety while being at the cusp of controlling west MOSUL in the short-term. On a positive note, this week in a series of lightning fast advances, ALLIANCE forces seized further control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS. Unfortunately with the impending ISIS defeat in MOSUL, ISIS resorted to another repugnant, vial and nasty terrorist strike whereby two car bomb attacks in the heart of the IRAQI capital of BAGHDAD killed at least 26 people and wounded dozens. The first strike happened at an ice cream shop in the KARRADA district whereby a crowd had broken their RAMADAN fasts while a few hours later there was a second blast near the SHUHADA BRIDGE. ISIS formally stated that both bombings had targeted gatherings of SHIA Muslims that ISIS considers as apostates subject to punishment by death.
Moving on to SYRIA, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire peace process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks. Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN regime carried out the chemical attacks. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week although TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA signed an agreement at the SYRIAN cease-fire talks in KAZAKHSTAN two weeks ago calling for the creation of four de-escalation zones in SYRIA that represent the latest attempt by all key players in the region to reduce the violence in SYRIA including the commitment by President Bashar al-Assad that the SYRIAN air force will halt flights over the designated areas in SYRIA. Unfortunately, the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt albeit Russia and the U.S. continuing to discuss the situation in round-the-clock mode anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control. Meanwhile, one of the founders of ISIS propaganda was reportedly killed in his hometown during an ALLIANCE airstrike in eastern SYRIA. That is, RAYAN MASH’AL was in his home in the city of AL-MAYADIN when ALLIANCE forces launched a bombing attack on the co-founder of the ISIS media division known as A’MAQ news agency. In regards to the US led offensive on ISIS in RAQQA, over 200,000 civilians have become homeless by the U.S. backed offensive since November with over 160,000 in the last two months alone with a vast number living in the open, in tents, in their cars, or in camps. However, the U.S. government is not taking responsibility for displaced civilians, having handed over that responsibility to its chosen partners on the ground, led by the KURDISH militia. Meanwhile, the shadow wars raged on elsewhere in SYRIA as ISIS attacked the IRANIAN militia in Khan Touman as round after round of mortar fire pounded the town. As a friendly reminder, paramilitary units numbering the thousands were sent by IRAN in a mission kept very much in the shadows but that has played a key role in insuring the continuing survival of the regime under President Bashar al-Assad. This week, they were with SHIA IRAQI forces when they freed the final remaining YAZIDI villages occupied by ISIS including KOCHO which was the place of one of the most notorious atrocities of ISIS in which male residents were lined up and executed while the females were taken away to be sold as sex slaves.
In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders.
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Ironically, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKEY blocked GERMANY from visiting INCIRLIK airbase to meet GERMAN soldiers stationed there on the basis that INCIRLIK is not a NATO base but rather solely a TURKISH base such that TURKEY has the final say on whether GERMAN lawmakers can visit INCIRLIK. Obviously, GERMAN Chancellor Angela Merkel threatened TURKEY that GERMANY would withdraw soldiers from the airbase if GERMANY was not allowed to visit but in my opinion this is just another perfect example of the new geopolitical landscape internationally predicated on personal, financial and political interests. That is, under the new rules of the game, the geo-political landscape has become one giant chess field whereby for every action, there is an equal and opposing reaction. Therefore, given GERMANY’s open criticism of the TURKISH regime for anomalies noted during TURKEY’s April 16, 2017 referendum, TURKEY has now exercised its legal right to restrict GERMAN access to TURKEY’s INCIRLIK air base. In my opinion, this new game of taking decisions that are legal but questionable on moral and ethical grounds is the new reality of the geo-political landscape whereby everybody respects the law but exercises no professional courtesy to the extent they carry a historic grudge. In regards to eighteen of the NATO ALLIANCE’s European members and Canada backing the demand of GERMAN strong woman Chancellor Angela Merkel to block TURKEY from hosting a NATO summit next year and to have the planned summit in TURKEY moved to NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, the NATO ALLIANCE has effectively sent the message that the ALLIANCE will not give legitimacy to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s regime under his current authoritarian style of leadership. In my opinion, this further illustrates the new dynamic behind the international geopolitical landscape whereby countries with common personal, financial and political interests now form tag teams like wrestlers in a handicap match to outnumber the deviant rebel to in essence force the opposition to submit. In regards to RUSSIA agreeing to lift most of the sanctions RUSSIA had imposed on TURKEY after the TURKISH military shot down a RUSSIAN fighter jet over the border with SYRIA over eighteen months ago, RUSSIA pounced on the opportunity to strengthen its ties with TURKEY after TURKEY was outnumbered by its EU counterparts regarding the upcoming NATO planned summit. In my opinion, this further illustrates the new geopolitical landscape whereby like wrestlers who share common opponents, unusual relationships are formed due to changes in circumstances whereby in essence the opposition of my opposition becomes my ally under the principal of “what have you done for me lately”. In summary, this weeks events as concerns TURKEY illustrates the new rules of the game on the geopolitical stage perfectly whereby the world has become one giant poker game with all parties playing the best hand that they can with the current cards in their hands such that everyone needs to learn to not hate the players but perhaps to hate the game.
Moving on to IRAQ, the recent successful attacks on ISIS by IRAQI security forces in MOSUL, has clearly sent the message to ISIS that it is just a matter of time until the ISIS Empire in MOSUL dies. However, the IRAQI led troops on the ground are essentially forced to fight ISIS style, which is slow and brutal for any other type of heavy artillery attack on ISIS, will result in significant collateral damage in terms of human casualties. Therefore, the ALLIANCE forces recapture of eastern MOSUL in its entirety has triggered a lightning fast momentum as ALLIANCE forces managed to seize control of major parts of Western MOSUL although in my opinion, the last of the fighting will most probably be a lot more difficult. In my opinion, ISIS will cling on to the oldest parts of MOSUL city where streets are narrow making it hard to manoeuvre military convoys and thus increasing the risk of ambushes and civilian casualties. Therefore, it is not surprising to see that ALLIANCE forces are having a difficult time to fully retake control of central MOSUL’s OLD CITY but this struggle is unfortunately necessary to secure the entire province of MOSUL such that patience is of utmost importance as ALLIANCE forces must continue with their relentless yet prudent attacks until ALL ISIS snipers have been eliminated. In regards to ISIS resorting to another repugnant, vial and nasty terrorist strike whereby two car bomb attacks in the heart of the IRAQI capital of BAGHDAD killed at least 26 people and wounded dozens, ISIS seems to only be able to mount such cowardly attacks on innocent civilians as on the battlefield of war amongst militia, ISIS is slowly but surely heading in the direction of impending defeat. In my opinion, there is not much anyone can really do to prevent such an attack as during RAMADAN, when MUSLIMS fast from dawn until sunset, many IRAQI residents stay up late and eat out at restaurants and cafes in BAGHDAD. Therefore, it is very difficult for the IRAQI military to pinpoint which car on the street in the vicinity may have explosive devices although dozens of people are known to be sitting on benches outside the popular AL-FAQMA ice cream parlour in KARRADA. In essence, the innocent victims chose to live free regardless of the inherent ISIS risk that will never disappear in its entirety which in my opinion is better than to be alive but living dead hiding beneath the ground in one’s shed for fear of an ISIS terrorist unleashing of led. In regards to ISIS formally stating that both bombings had targeted gatherings of SHIA Muslims that ISIS considers as apostates subject to punishment by death, this is just another example of the fanatism of the ISIS ideology as SHIA Muslim is the closest to SUNNI Muslim that a normal rational individual can comprehend as the root of both is MUSLIM based although their respective denominations parted ways similar to the CATHOLIC and PROTESTANT deviation days such that it is clear to me that ISIS is completely mentally insane. In my opinion, assuming that the KURDISH peshmerga, IRAQI army, SHIITE militia and some SUNNI militia forces continue to overlook their differences and stick together, ISIS will inevitably be decimated in IRAQ, although ISIS will likely survive as an incognito terrorist organization throughout the world. In my opinion, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations.
Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's future should be off the agenda for now and the main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace.
In regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad watched as the cease-fire agreement signed last week that establishes four de-escalation zones was violated. In my opinion, although the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt, I believe that RUSSIAN and U.S. round-the-clock discussions anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control should be welcomed as a positive development in fully implementing the de-escalation zones. In my opinion, it is better for RUSSIA and the U.S. to try to work together to implement something in terms of de-escalation zones as opposed to sitting back and insuring that both parties achieve nothing. That being said, it is a shame to once again see the SYRIAN regime and COALITION forces expending significant time and resources on each other as opposed to focusing on the war against the terrorist factions in SYRIA including ISIS, HAYAT TAHRIR AL-SHAM, JABHAT FATEH AL-SHAM, AL QAEDA, NUSRA FRONT, AHRAR AL-SHAM or ALL FULL OF SHIT GANGSTER SHAM who have zero interest in peace negotiations. However, on a positive note, RAYAN MASH’AL, co-founder of the ISIS media division known as A’MAQ news agency was killed in an airstrike by ALLIANCE forces as they hit at the heart of the ISIS social media empire. In my opinion, although RAYAN MASH’AL was psychotic, demented and delusional, he was extremely effective in social media channels to claim ISIS responsibility for terror attacks throughout the world. In my opinion, ISIS A’MAQ news agency has become ISIS’s fastest and most reliable source of information, used to post videos and claims of ISIS attacks while remaining online despite bans from social media platforms. Therefore, taking out one of the brains behind the ISIS media empire will undoubtedly hurt ISIS in the long run and degrade ISIS abilities and inspiration for future foreign attacks. In regards to the US led offensive on ISIS in RAQQA with over 200,000 civilians becoming homeless, whereby the U.S. government handed over responsibility to the KURDISH led militia, I believe there is no other viable alternative in the short-term. However, in my opinion, the U.S. government needs to oversee the operations of the KURDISH led militia to insure they do not enter into an ethnic cleansing campaign. In my opinion, during periods of martial law like the present, the KURDISH led militia needs to be monitored to insure that their policies and procedures do no violate international humanitarian rights. In my opinion, the recent requirements by the KURDISH militia whereby refugees can return to their homes only if they find a local sponsor, appears to set the bar high as the only other option is to exit the region such that this policy is borderline in terms of respecting International Humanitarian Laws such that the U.S. needs to intervene. In my opinion, to the extent that the Internally Displaced Person (IDP) can demonstrate with formal identity papers that they lived in the region before all hell broke loose, they should be allowed to return even if they do not have sponsorship in order to respect International Humanitarian Laws. In regards to IRANIAN militia with SHIA IRAQI forces freeing the final remaining YAZIDI villages occupied by ISIS including KOCHO which was the place of one of the most notorious atrocities of ISIS in which male residents were lined up and executed while the females were taken away to be sold as sex slaves, this is just another shadow war being fought behind the scenes that nobody seems to hear. In my opinion, this just further illustrates the complexity of the wars in the region, including the twists and turns of the region’s geopolitics, as U.S. and U.K. warplanes were providing air cover for the SHIA militias, with IRANIANS in their ranks, in their war against ISIS while U.S. President Donald Trump attacked IRAN during his recent visit to SAUDI ARABIA for exporting terrorism in the region while signing a $110 billion arms deal with SAUDI ARABIA to counter the supposed SHIA threat. In my opinion, this example once again reflects the new rules of the game on the geopolitical stage perfectly whereby the world has become one giant poker game with all parties playing the best hand that they can with the current cards in their hands such that everyone needs to learn to not hate the players but perhaps to hate the game.
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 249” as the belief that MOSUL victory is critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace albeit perpetual geopolitical complexity, whereby everybody taking part in huge poker game of dysfunctional orgy, predicated on what have you done for me lately, while playing two face hypocrisy depending on cards dealt to see, leading to don’t hate the players but rather hate the game insanity.
Spirit of John Lennon – Kurdish Guerrilla Song:
June 4, 2017
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