In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 266” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace as IRAQI KURDISH referendum resulted in YES win with 92.73% support from the turnout of 72% who purport that the KURDS will no longer accept being treated like second class trailer park trash pieces of shit of dirty dogs of dirty whores such that major changes definitely lie in store.
TURKEY News
During the week ending on Sunday, October 1, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants.
Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKISH Prime Minister Binali Yildirim stated that TURKEY’s military forces would not hesitate to give a strong response to any TURKISH security threat on the border with IRAQ after Monday’s referendum on independence of IRAQ’s semi-autonomous KURDISTAN region. Furthermore, TURKEY reiterated its stance that no matter how you look at it, this referendum will not bring tranquility, brotherhood and peace to the region such that TURKEY deems the referendum as null and void. In addition, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reinforced TURKEYS position that just as TURKEY did not allow the fire which burned in SYRIA to spread to TURKEY, so too any attempted instigation of unrest by the KURDS in IRAQ will be stopped immediately in their tracks. Meanwhile, TURKEY stated that TURKEY has stopped training KURDISH Peshmerga forces in northern IRAQ, as part of the KURDISH campaign against the ISIS terrorist group, as a direct response to the KURDISH referendum on independence. Contemporaneously, KURDISH officials said that the KURDISH referendum on independence from IRAQ was approved by more than 92% of the voters. Hendrin Mohammed, the head of the KURDISH region’s election commission, announced the official results at a press conference in ERBIL, IRAQ saying that the referendum passed with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%. Furthermore, Hendrin Mohammed stated that the vote counting was complete and that the results would be considered final once the KURDISH region’s department of justice certified the results.
IRAQ News
Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and ALLIED forces have pushed ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces first liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety subsequent to ALLIANCE forces seizing complete control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS. It is important to note that IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS to the point of ISIS relinquishing control of MOSUL as the world watched the scenes of jubilation as IRAQI forces liberated the OLD MOSUL City from ISIS. However, with 40,000 plus dead in the battle to take back OLD MOSUL City from ISIS, the scale of civilian casualties reveals a massacre with many bodies still buried under the rubble and the level of human suffering immense. However, ISIS is far from eradicated in IRAQ as several strongholds still remain such that the final battles to push ISIS out of these places will be more complicated than the previous straightforward fights in places such as FALLUJAH and TIKRIT. Today, ISIS still controls two towns consisting of HAWIJA, south of KIRKUK and AL QAIM, west of ANBAR whereby each fight will have its own set of complicated political, military and foreign policy issues. In addition, many ISIS militias have taken to the hills and began to wage a classic rural guerrilla war, while some ISIS sleeper cells have also been activated at the border of Baghdad, the IRAQI capital. Thus, ISIS has now returned to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group as the Islamic State of IRAQ and SYRIA can no longer call itself a state as ISIS has lost all capacity to act as a state but rather ISIS now stands exposed as a GANGSTER sham.
On the heels of the IRAQI military victory in MOSUL, IRAQI forces have broken through ISIS’s defences inside the northern city of TAL AFAR and reached the city centre that represents a major gain in the battle for ISIS’s last urban stronghold in IRAQ as IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared victory over ISIS in the northern city of TAL AFAR and the entire province of NINEVEH. However, it is important to note that ISIS still continues to strike ALLIANCE forces whenever there is an opportunity available such that the IRAQI army continues to withstand the barrage of ISIS counter strikes as was demonstrated this week by U.S. and coalition military forces who continued to attack ISIS across several fronts in IRAQ. First, around HUWIJAH, two strikes hit two ISIS military tactical units and destroyed two staging areas, a command center headquarters and a weapons cache while two additional strikes destroyed 51 ISIS vehicles and five vehicles carrying bombs. Second, around FALLUJAH, a strike hit an ISIS military tactical unit. Third, around QAIM, a strike destroyed an ISIS staging area. Fourth, around RAWAH, a strike destroyed two ISIS facilities producing vehicles carrying bombs. However, in order to limit ISIS capabilities to mount future offensives, it is important for the SHIA-dominated government of IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to reconcile the leaders of the SUNNI tribes, many of who supported ISIS because they did not believe they were properly represented in IRAQ while contemporaneously engaging with the KURDS who have played a key role in defeating ISIS.
Meanwhile, RUSSIA, the only major power that did not called on IRAQI’s KURDS to cancel the referendum on independence that was held on September 25 has swiftly become the top funder of KURDISH oil and gas deals with as much as $ 4 billion pledged in less than a year. However, the U.S., EUROPEAN countries, TURKEY and IRAN have all lined up to oppose the move by IRAQI’s KURDS to separate from IRAQ subsequent to the September 25 referendum on independence. However, the KURDS consider the September 25 referendum victory as the culmination of decades of struggle for a KURDISH state of their own although the IRAQI government has clearly stated that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. However, after the votes were tallied and the referendum passed with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, Iraq’s top SHIITE cleric out right rejected the outcome of KURDISTAN’s independence vote despite the overwhelming 92% voting in favour of separating from IRAQ. Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani stated that KURDS must return to the constitutional path arguing that it is in the best interests of all IRAQIS including the KURDS to go back to the constitutional path to solve the issues between the central IRAQI government and the KURDISH region’s government. IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi subsequently released a statement expressing his agreement with the position of Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. However, the KURDISTAN government stated that they were pushed to the stage of an independence referendum after the IRAQI government violated at least one third of IRAQIS constitution including Article 140 that concerns the fate of the disputed KURDISTAN areas such as the oil-rich and multi-ethnic KIRKUK province. Therefore, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani called on IRAQI authorities to respect KURDISTAN’s rights per the constitution such that all decisions and steps by the IRAQI government take into consideration the preservation of the constitutional rights of KURDISH brothers. Although KURDISH officials, including President Masoud Barzani, have complained that regional and international powers and religious leaders have failed to condemn violations of the IRAQI constitution, it seems that the complaints previously fell upon deaf ears. Nonetheless, the IRAQI government considers KURDISTAN’s referendum as unconstitutional such that the IRAQI government has asked the KURDISH government to cancel its outcome in order to satisfy a precondition for talks on outstanding issues between the two governments. Meanwhile, KURDISH President Masoud Barzani said that the KURDS are ready to have serious dialogue with the IRAQI government on the outcome of the yes win with the objective of living together as two good neighbours.
SYRIA News
Moving on to SYRIA, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire peace process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks. Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN regime carried out the chemical attacks. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week although TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA signed an agreement at the SYRIAN cease-fire talks in KAZAKHSTAN several weeks ago calling for the creation of four de-escalation zones in SYRIA that represent the latest attempt by all key players in the region to reduce the violence in SYRIA including the commitment by President Bashar al-Assad that the SYRIAN air force will halt flights over the designated areas in SYRIA. Unfortunately, the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt albeit Russia and the U.S. continuing to discuss the situation in round-the-clock mode anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control.
However, tensions seemed to de-escalate this week as the SYRIAN Army under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH let ISIS withdraw from SYRIA’s border with LEBANON to the eastern province of DEIR AL-ZOR. LEBANESE President Michel Aoun declared that LEBANON has been victorious over ISIS but angry IRAQI and U.S. officials pointed out that in fact, ISIS was bussed over the border to SYRIA to become someone else’s problem. Ironically, the convoy of ISIS fighters that was stranded in the SYRIAN desert for several weeks finally reached DEIR AL-ZOR after the U.S. led coalition allowed it free passage in spite of a pledge to prevent it from doing so. Thus, the agreement ended ISIS’s presence on the LEBANESE border after three years in the BEKAA VALLEY of LEBANON. Meanwhile, LEBANON still has to deal with the huge refugee crisis created by ISIS in SYRIA whereby most recent estimates indicate that over 1.5 million Syrians have been registered as refugees since 2016. Although the Lebanese government has maintained an open door policy towards SYRIAN refugees, no international laws exist which Lebanon must follow in dealing with the refugees. Therefore, the SYRIAN refugees who are capable of working have been forced to compete with the poor of LEBANON for the country’s lowest paying jobs to get work and make money that has resulted in damage to Lebanon’s economic infrastructure. Furthermore, the children of Syrian refugees must attend schools that are already crowded with Lebanese children.
On a positive note, U.S. backed fighters have surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, have cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. As a friendly reminder, nearly 200,000 people and 5,000 ISIS militants live in RAQQA such that the efforts to retake the SYRIAN city has now drawn dozens of U.S. military advisors deployed directly inside RAQQA city itself with U.S. Marines providing artillery support against ISIS from the surrounding countryside. Fighters of the U.S. backed, KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) continue to punch their way through ISIS lines in RAQQA city as KURDISH forces are literally shooting their way through the streets of RAQQA, concentrating fire on ISIS positions hidden in the urban ruin of RAQQA city while ISIS fights back hard. On a positive note, the SDF announced that they are continuing to advance into the center of RAQQA city where they have been thwarting car bombs and suicide attacks. Heavy clashes continue between the SDF and the ISIS militants in the surrounding areas of RAQQA that have reached their final stages with the opening by the SDF forces of a new front against ISIS on the northern edge of RAQQA. Meanwhile, according to the RUSSIANS, repeated targeting mistakes of the U.S. led coalition in RAQQA have caused significant damage to civilian infrastructure in RAQQA while a lack of humanitarian aid has led to a human catastrophe. According to Oleg Syromolotov who supervises counterterrorism cooperation with other nations in SYRIA, RAQQA is witnessing a humanitarian catastrophe as previously seen in MOSUL, IRAQ caused by a lack of effective effort to deliver humanitarian aid and to create corridors for the evacuation of the civilian population in addition to recurring mistakes by the U.S. Air Force including airstrikes targeting civilian sites.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders.
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Ironically, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKEY reiterated its stance that no matter how you look at it, the KURDISH referendum on independence will not bring tranquility, brotherhood and peace to the region such that TURKEY deems the referendum as null and void. In my opinion, given that the referendum passed with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, the free will of the KURDISH people in IRAQ cannot be ignored as they have at least earned the right to sit down with the IRAQI government to see if there is any potential for the KURDISH region to remain an autonomous region within some sort of new IRAQI federation. However, in my opinion, the results speak for themselves that the KURDISH region in IRAQ cannot continue under the status quo of the IRAQI regime but there will need to be significant changes to satisfy the KURDISH dreams. First and foremost, it is important for the SHIA-dominated government of IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to see if they can negotiate some sort of loose IRAQI federation with the KURDS who feel that they have not been properly represented in IRAQ but to the contrary feel that the KURDS have been treated like second class citizens in IRAQ. In my opinion, the results of the KURDISH referendum on independence has clearly sent the message to the IRAQI government that the KURDS will no longer accept being treated like trailer park trash pieces of shit of dirty dogs of dirty whores such that there will definitely be major changes ahead in the not too distant horizon. In my opinion, the SYRIAN KURDS will likely follow in the footsteps of the IRAQI KURDS once the dust settles in SYRIA as the KURDS have never hidden their goal of uniting historical KURDISH areas of Syria known as ROJAVA, stretching from AFRIN to the TIGRIS river into one land mass. In my opinion, Turkey does not have the right to put an end to the KURDISH dreams to control their beloved KURDISTAN in IRAQ and ROJAVA in SYRIA as the KURDS gave their blood for this land in their battles against ISIS such that it is up to the KURDS to decide their future within both IRAQ and SYRIA including the choice to remain as autonomous regions within loose federations in both IRAQ and SYRIA.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Moving on to IRAQ, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after almost nine months of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ’s since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power. In my opinion, it will be extremely difficult to eradicate ISIS completely from IRAQ as ISIS still controls three towns consisting of TAL AFAR, west of MOSUL; HAWIJA, south of KIRKUK; and AL QAIM, west of ANBAR whereby each fight will have its own set of complicated political, military and foreign policy issues. Therefore, in my opinion, the last three strongholds in IRAQ consisting of TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL QAIM will be the most brutal and savage wars yet fought in IRAQ as ISIS has laid the foundation for martyrdom. That is, ISIS has in essence sent the message to its remaining conclaves that their only choice is to fight until death at the hands of the ALLIANCE, as the only other option is to choose to be killed by ISIS itself. Therefore, in my opinion now that ISIS has entered the final realm of one of the most brutal civil wars in history, ISIS has in essence elevated its game to complete and utter Barbarian, Neanderthal, Self-Centered, Egotistical, Narcissistic, Masochistic, Sadistic, Idiosyncratic, Sociopathic and Psychopathic maniacs.
In my opinion, taking out ISIS in TAL AFAR was less complicated that I had initially envisioned because SHIITE militias do not appear to have taken revenge on ethnic TURKS living in the town. That is, both SUNNI Muslim and SHIITE Muslim TURKS lived in TAL AFAR before ISIS took over while the SUNNI Muslim TURKS who remain are considered by many to have been supporters of ISIS but they were not directly attacked as part of the liberation of TAL AFAR. Therefore, the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly transferred from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred to as TAL AFAR in a lightening fast military offensive. However, ISIS now seems like a terrorist organization gone completely irate with ISIS leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi now organising a number of sophisticated attacks against WESTERN targets to boost the morale of ISIS fighters after the series of devastating defeats ISIS suffered in places such as MOSUL, RAQQA and TAL AFAR. In my opinion, although ISIS has lost a lot of land in both IRAQ and SYRIA, this is not the end of ISIS as a terrorist organization. Furthermore, as was seen this week ISIS still continues to strike ALLIANCE forces whenever there is an opportunity available such that the IRAQI army continues to withstand the barrage of ISIS counter strikes as was demonstrated this week by U.S. and coalition military forces who continued to attack ISIS across several fronts in IRAQ. In my opinion, coordinated efforts by the U.S. and coalition military forces as was seen this week in Huwijah, Fallujah, Qaim and Rawah are critical to defeating ISIS in IRAQ as ISIS has demonstrated over and over again that the moment ISIS sees any opening anywhere in IRAQ, ISIS will strike fast, strike hard and strike direct before going back into hiding amongst IRAQI civilians that ISIS persists in utilizing as human shields as ISIS is becoming desperate and nor clearly fighting for its survival in IRAQ. However, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of a new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
In my opinion, taking out ISIS in HAWIJA will be complicated because it is located in KIRKUK that is known as a disputed territory because IRAQI KURDS believe HAWIJA should be part of their nearby semi-autonomous region but IRAQI ARABS believe it is part of IRAQ. That is, if the SHIITE Muslim Arabs stay in HAWIJA after ISIS is expelled, this dilutes the KURDISH claims on the area. In addition, the SUNNI Muslim tribal leaders in this area are worried that if the IRAQI KURDISH military or the SHIITE Muslim militias take part in the battle against ISIS for HAWIJA, then the SUNNI Muslim tribes will be attacked as well as they are considered by many to be supporters of ISIS. In my opinion, taking out ISIS in AL QAIM will be complicated because AL QAIM is located on an international border, between IRAQ and SYRIA such that due to its strategic geographical location, AL QAIM is by far the most secure city held by ISIS. Thus, both SYRIA and IRAQ would have to coordinate a military campaign against ISIS in AL QAIM. However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations.
In regards to RUSSIA, the only major power that did not call on IRAQI KURDS to cancel the referendum on independence on September 25, 2017 as RUSSIA has swiftly become the top funder of KURDISH oil and gas deals with as much as $ 4 billion pledged in less than a year, this is just another example of the new geopolitical landscape whereby money talks and shit walks. However, the U.S., EUROPEAN countries, TURKEY and IRAN that all lined up to oppose the move by IRAQI’s KURDS to hold the September 25 referendum on independence because of fear of an IRAQI civil war between the KURDS and IRAQI forces, who have managed to coordinate their efforts thus far by focusing on a common enemy of ISIS, seem to both be open to pursue further dialogue as opposed to war. In my opinion, the IRAQI KURDS have the right to pursue their independence pursuant to the majority win by the KURDS with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, albeit the reality that they seem to be moving way too fast given that the IRAQI government claims that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. In my opinion, the IRAQI KURDS still need to negotiate with the IRAQI government to respect the IRAQI constitution such that although the KURDISH vote was a clear indication of majority support for separation, the September 25 referendum only serves a symbolic victory thus far, as it cannot be supported legally without further negotiations with the IRAQI government. Therefore, in my opinion, the majority win by the KURDS with 92.73% support definitely will provide major bargaining power for future negotiations with the IRAQI government as for me this is a clear sign that the KURDS will no longer accept being treated like trailer park trash pieces of shit of dirty dogs of dirty whores such that there will definitely be major changes ahead in the not too distant horizon.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s future should be off the agenda for now and the main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace.
In regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad watched as the cease-fire agreement that establishes four de-escalation zones was violated once again. In my opinion, although the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt, I believe that RUSSIAN and U.S. round-the-clock discussions anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control should be welcomed as a positive development in fully implementing the de-escalation zones. In my opinion, it is better for RUSSIA and the U.S. to try to work together to implement something in terms of de-escalation zones as opposed to sitting back and insuring that both parties achieve nothing.
In regards to tensions de-escalating this week as the SYRIAN Army under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH let ISIS withdraw from SYRIA’s border with LEBANON to the eastern province of DEIR AL-ZOR, this strategic shift in focus by the SYRIAN Army on ISIS is key to overall peace in the region as the only issue that everybody in the region seem to agree upon is that ISIS needs to be contained to an underground organization without any significant control of land particularly along any major borders. Thus, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, allowing ISIS to retreat to DEIR AL-ZOR made sense as DEIR AL-ZOR province, which borders IRAQ to the east, is almost entirely under ISIS control such that it made sense to allow ISIS to concentrate itself in territories already under ISIS control to minimize ISIS reach around the remaining parts of the Middle East. In my opinion, it is better to fight the ISIS devil in ISIS’s hell on earth of DEIR AL-ZOR than to allow the ISIS devil entrance into LEBANESE heaven to contaminate more territory like a plague turning more people mentally insane. However, Therefore, as the numbers of Syrian refugees in Lebanon has grown with over 1.5 million since 2016 now living in Lebanon, so too have the economic, political, social and religious tensions that will continue to be felt for years to come as the damage left behind in SYRIA will take at least a decade to revive. In my opinion, the realities of the ISIS organization are that ISIS will not disappear completely off the face of the map as they still have quite a bit of amassed wealth such that eventually some sort of ceasefire deal will need to be negotiated with ISIS to contain them to limited restricted areas as opposed to dispersing them across the globe and giving ISIS the opportunity to launch covert terrorist strikes globally.
In regards to U.S. backed fighters surrounding the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA, capturing RAQQA would be a major achievement in the battle against ISIS and help bring an end to ISIS’s reign of terror trying to create a so-called Caliphate. In my opinion, ISIS has used RAQQA for over three years to stage deadly attacks on the Middle East and further overseas such that capturing RAQQA from ISIS would significantly reduce ISIS’s terrorist capabilities in the future. In my opinion, the current strategy whereby U.S. airpower drops a barrage of bombs to suppress ISIS movements behind and towards the front-lines within the city, while KURDISH forces on the ground let loose with a barrage of small arms fire to break up ISIS fighters at sight will be less effective moving forward as ISIS has now adopted guerrilla warfare tactics including the intentional usage of innocent civilians as human shields to avoid air strikes by ALLIANCE forces. In addition, the increasing ISIS usage of suicide car bombs, snipers, drones and tunnels to slow down SDF advances with the fight becoming a matter of life and death for both sides has inevitably reduced the pace of advancement by the SDF in RAQQA. Nonetheless, the SDF continues to push forward and to advance into the center of RAQQA city where they have been thwarting car bombs and suicide attacks to the point where the SDF and the SYRIAN Arab Army forces have now liberated approximately 80% of the RAQQA enclave. In my opinion, with 80% of the RAQQA territory captured from ISIS, the SDF is now entering the final stages of the war against ISIS albeit the realities that the last 20% will be the most difficult and painful to conquest. In my opinion, the remaining ISIS fighters in RAQQA CITY have now been confined to the city centre in government administrative buildings, stadiums and tunnels thanks to heavy coalition air strikes forcing ISIS to withdraw from at least five key neighbourhoods around RAQQA CITY. However, in my opinion the remaining ISIS fighters in RAQQA CITY will most likely die in a street fight whereby their food and ammunitions will run out after which they will attempt one last storm on SDF forces only to die in a blaze of glory in ISIS minds of the mentally disturbed kind. In regards to the RUSSIANS claiming that RAQQA is witnessing a humanitarian catastrophe as previously seen in MOSUL, IRAQ caused by a lack of effective effort to deliver humanitarian aid, to create corridors for the evacuation of the civilian population and recurring mistakes by the U.S. Air Force including airstrikes targeting civilian sites, this in my opinion is primarily attributable to the ISIS guerrilla warfare techniques of intentionally hiding behind civilians as human shields. In my opinion, the RUSSIAN perspective is clearly ANTI-AMERICAN as from the RUSSIANS point-of-view, RAQQA is an absurd situation in which a foreign U.S. led military force is present on SYRIAN territory illegally and without consent from the government of SYRIA while the U.S. led military force is imposing geographic boundaries for the SYRIAN Army itself which is fighting to free its own SYRIAN country from terrorists. Therefore, the RUSSIAN perspective that the U.S. led military force is doing a terrible job in RAQQA is not surprising but in my opinion, the U.S. led coalition is fighting an ISIS organization that follows no international conventions nor rules such that collateral damage is inevitable as the only alternative would have been to leave ISIS untouched in RAQQA.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 266” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace as IRAQI KURDISH referendum resulted in YES win with 92.73% support from the turnout of 72% who purport that the KURDS will no longer accept being treated like second class trailer park trash pieces of shit of dirty dogs of dirty whores such that major changes definitely lie in store.
THE ROCK’S Web Market – 50% Global Lady of Mercedes Insurmountable Heritage Sale To All To Join THE ROCK & Stand Tall
Purchase A Subscription Between August 25 to September 24 of 2017 & Get A 50% Discount Up To September 24, 2018 By Choosing Amongst One Of Our 6 Options Currently Available Utilizing Discount Code “09242017” & Make A ROCK Solid Investment For The Future! https://www.therockswebmarket.com/membership-account/membership-levels
During
the week ending on Sunday, September 24, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days
of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly
KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was
on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that
failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them
civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”,
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended
the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days,
closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations.
A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP
re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention
on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the
heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was
held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population
voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a
presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch
with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those
opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free
Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the
boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly
authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an
intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics,
academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants.
Nonetheless,
TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this
week with further crackdown measures as TURKEY introduced a new curriculum at
schools across TURKEY this academic year. Of particular note is that children
will find the introduction to the theory of evolution removed from their high
school biology textbooks. In addition, the time dedicated to teaching the
secular ideals of TURKEY’s founder, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, has been greatly
reduced and public schools will now have to teach the concept of JIHAD that the
TURKISH government says is to counter the use of religion to justify violence
although this decision has received widespread opposition from secularists. The
TURKISH government obviously has an agenda for education because affecting the
minds of TURKISH youth is of the utmost importance to President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan such that the changes to the curriculum are ideological as opposed to
scientific or academic in nature. Meanwhile, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan says U.S. President Donald Trump called him and apologized about U.S.
legal action targeting 19 TURKISH security officials who were involved in clashes
with peaceful protesters in the U.S. this year while the U.S. denied the
TURKISH claim. In an interview with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
according to a translator, U.S. President Donald Trump called President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan and said that he was sorry and told President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan that he was going to follow up on this issue when President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan comes to the United States within the framework of an official
visit.
IRAQ News
Moving
on to IRAQ, IRAQI and ALLIED forces have pushed ISIS militants back from MOSUL,
their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces first liberated
the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety subsequent to ALLIANCE
forces seizing complete control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS. It is important
to note that IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS to the point of ISIS
relinquishing control of MOSUL as the world watched the scenes of jubilation as
IRAQI forces liberated the OLD MOSUL City from ISIS. However, with
40,000 plus dead in the battle to take back OLD MOSUL City from ISIS, the scale
of civilian casualties reveals a massacre with many bodies still buried under
the rubble and the level of human suffering immense. However, ISIS is far from
eradicated in IRAQ as several strongholds still remain such that the final battles
to push ISIS out of these places will be more complicated than the previous straightforward
fights in places such as FALLUJAH and TIKRIT. Today, ISIS still controls two
towns consisting of HAWIJA, south of KIRKUK and AL QAIM, west of ANBAR whereby
each fight will have its own set of complicated political, military and foreign
policy issues. In addition, many ISIS militias have taken to the hills and began
to wage a classic rural guerrilla war, while some ISIS sleeper cells have also been
activated at the border of Baghdad, the IRAQI capital. Thus, ISIS has now
returned to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group as the Islamic State
of IRAQ and SYRIA can no longer call itself a state as ISIS has lost all
capacity to act as a state but rather ISIS now stands exposed as a GANGSTER sham.
On
the heels of the IRAQI military victory in MOSUL, IRAQI forces have broken
through ISIS’s defences inside the northern city of TAL AFAR and reached the
city centre that represents a major gain in the battle for ISIS’s last urban
stronghold in IRAQ as IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared
victory over ISIS in the northern city of TAL AFAR and the entire province of
NINEVEH. However, it is important to note that ISIS still continues to strike
ALLIANCE forces whenever there is an opportunity available such that the IRAQI
army continues to withstand the barrage of ISIS counter strikes as was
demonstrated this week by IRAQI forces that launched an operation to recapture
the last stronghold of ISIS in IRAQ’s western desert by attacking ISIS in the
city of ANA. It is important to note that the progress of IRAQI forces were
slowed down by dozens of booby-traps which have become the signature of ISIS
militants desperation to thwart the advances by IRAQI forces. It is important
to note that ANA, located 90 km from the SYRIAN border is one of three IRAQI
towns in the EUPHRATES river valley still held by ISIS. Therefore, after
retaking ANA, IRAQI forces will target RAWA, 12 km to the north followed by
AL-QAIM that is the last IRAQI town before the border with SYRIA. Therefore, in
order to limit ISIS capabilities to mount future offensives, it is important
for the SHIA-dominated government of IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to
reconcile the leaders of the SUNNI tribes, many of who supported ISIS because
they did not believe they were properly represented in IRAQ while
contemporaneously engaging with the KURDS who have played a key role in
defeating ISIS.
Meanwhile,
RUSSIA, the only major power that has not called on IRAQI’s KURDS to cancel a
referendum on independence next week has swiftly become the top funder of
KURDISH oil and gas deals with as much as $ 4 billion pledged in less than a
year. However, the U.S., EUROPEAN countries, TURKEY and IRAN have all lined up
to oppose the move by IRAQI’s KURDS to hold the September 25 referendum on
independence which the KURDS consider the culmination of decades of struggle
for a KURDISH state of their own although the IRAQI government has clearly
stated that the referendum is in violation of the IRAQI constitution. Although
the U.S. issued a statement calling the planned referendum provocative and
destabilizing because it will take place within the autonomous KURDISH region
itself that is currently considered to be a disputed territory, RUSSIA did not
issue any such call to cancel the vote. Rather, RUSSIAN state oil giant ROSNEFT
announced its latest investment to help IRAQI KURDISTAN develop its natural gas
industry for domestic supplies and eventual export worth more than $1 billion although
the full value of the deal was not officially disclosed.
SYRIA News
Moving
on to SYRIA, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers,
RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security
Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the
six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic
efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing
of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response
to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than
100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire
peace process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State
Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks.
Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed
on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN
regime carried out the chemical attacks. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed
for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week although TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA signed an
agreement at the SYRIAN cease-fire talks in KAZAKHSTAN several weeks ago calling
for the creation of four de-escalation zones in SYRIAthat represent the latest attempt by
all key players in the region to reduce the violence in SYRIA including the
commitment by President Bashar al-Assad that the SYRIAN air force will halt
flights over the designated areas in SYRIA. Unfortunately, the new cease-fire
deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous
violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt albeit Russia
and the U.S. continuing to discuss the situation in round-the-clock mode anticipating
that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control.
However,
tensions seemed to de-escalate this week as the SYRIAN Army under the control
of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH let
ISIS withdraw from SYRIA’s border with LEBANON to the eastern province of DEIR
AL-ZOR. LEBANESEPresident Michel Aoun declared that LEBANON has been
victorious over ISIS but angry IRAQI and U.S. officials pointed out that in
fact, ISIS was bussed over the border to SYRIA to become someone else’s
problem. Ironically, the convoy of ISIS fighters that was stranded in the
SYRIAN desert for several weeks finally reached DEIR AL-ZOR after the U.S. led
coalition allowed it free passage in spite of a pledge to prevent it from doing
so. Thus, the agreement ended ISIS’s presence on the LEBANESE border after
three years in the BEKAA VALLEY of LEBANON. Meanwhile, LEBANON’s army arrested
ISIS militants who were planning attacks in LEBANON after foreign embassies
warned their citizens to avoid public places. The Lebanese Army carried out
several raids arresting 19 people linked to an ISIS terrorist cell as LEBANESE security
forces were taking extra precautions to prevent the threat of an ISIS terrorist
strike. The cell which had planned and prepared to carry out terrorist actions
was led by EGYPTIAN Fadi Ibrahim Ahmed who was operating from the AIN EL-HILWEH
refugee camp in southern LEBANON.
On a
positive note, U.S. backed fighters have surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA as
they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA
whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF),
a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, have cut off all routes into and out of
RAQQA. As a friendly reminder, nearly 200,000 people and 5,000 ISIS militants
live in RAQQA such that the efforts to retake the SYRIAN city has now drawn dozens
of U.S. military advisors deployed directly inside RAQQA city itself with U.S.
Marines providing artillery support against ISIS from the surrounding
countryside. Fighters of the U.S. backed, KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces
(SDF) continue to punch their way through ISIS lines in RAQQA city as KURDISH
forces are literally shooting their way through the streets of RAQQA,
concentrating fire on ISIS positions hidden in the urban ruin of RAQQA city
while ISIS fights back hard. On a positive note, the SDF announced that they
are continuing to advance into the center of RAQQA city where they have been
thwarting car bombs and suicide attacks. Heavy clashes continue between the SDF
and the ISIS militants in the surrounding areas of RAQQA that have reached
their final stages with the opening by the SDF forces of a new front against
ISIS on the northern edge of RAQQA.
TURKEY News
– THE ROCK’s Opinions
In
my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a
positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the
PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However,
with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears
that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the
governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war
with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which
secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my
opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the
hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather
everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its
ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal
with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE.
In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for
2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3
billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its
citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President
Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the
failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military
ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with
their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself
into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby
virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European
parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning
the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed
“Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a
shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that
TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as
the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion,
TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that
the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent
NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in
exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5
million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5
billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with
visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside
of TURKISH borders.
Finally,
the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing
AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his
attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement
supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the
referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the
TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted
into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive
branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Ironically,
TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this
week with further crackdown measures as TURKEY introduced a new curriculum at
schools across TURKEY this academic year whereby the theory of evolution has
been removed and the secular ideals of TURKEY’s founder, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk,
has been greatly reduced in public schools. In my opinion, this shift lead by President
Recep Tayyip Erdogan is to reinforce the true ISLAMIC religion in TURKEY’s
education system and to shift away from attitudes, activities or other things that have no religious or
spiritual basis. It is important to note that according to the latest census in
2016, ISLAM was the major religion in TURKEY comprising 82% of the
total population, followed by unaffiliated people with 13% and Christianity
with 2%. Therefore, in my opinion to reinforce ISLAM which does apply to the
vast majority of the population in TURKEY wil only reinforce strong core
values, morals, principals and ethics such that to the extent the rights of
minorities are not infringed upon by granting such children an opt-out option,
I see these changes as beneficial to developing the honesty, integrity and
respect of the TURKISH children. In regards to the manipulation of history and
avoiding evolution, TURKISH children still have access to the Intranet such
that if these topics of are interest, they will have the opportunity to use
GOOGLE to note that evolution by natural selection is a process demonstrated by
the observation that more offspring are produced than can possibly survive,
along with three facts about populations: 1) traits vary among
individuals with respect to morphology, physiology, and behaviour (phenotypic
variation); 2) different traits confer different rates of survival
and reproduction (differential fitness); and 3) traits can be
passed from generation to generation (heritability of fitness). Thus, in
successive generations descendants of parents better adapted to survive and
reproduce in the biophysical environment in which natural selection takes place
replaces members of a population. Thus, in my opinion, this never ending debate
over exclusion of the theory of evolution from the education curriculum is more
politically driven than substance driven as can be seen from the definition
above whereby in actuality the theory of evolution is an opinion that those who
feel is contrary to ISLAM can simply ignore with a giant yawn as a sign of an
excessive bore. However, this debate over the theory of evolution is an example
of the new geopolitical landscape whereby overly educated technocrats enter
into a never ending theoretical debate when in actuality everything commenced
from a stable state such that the focus should be on the elimination of the evolution
of hate in order to educate TURKISH offspring on the need to tolerate.
In
regards to TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan saying that U.S. President
Donald Trump called him and apologized about U.S. legal action targeting 19 TURKISH
security officials who were involved in clashes with peaceful protesters in the
U.S. this year, while the U.S. denied the TURKISH claim, this is another
example of drama on the geopolitical stage. In my opinion, the security guards
allowed the protesters to get under their skin namely because many of them were
loyal activists of the KURDISH YPG as TURKEY considers the YPG a terror organization and
an extension of KURDISH PKK militants waging a thirty plus years insurgency
against the TURKISH state although the YPG is a key U.S. ally inSYRIAagainst ISIS. In my opinion, this
case has all the characteristics of a prolonged legal battle as only two
suspects, who are not security officers, were arrested in June and appeared in
court on September 7, while the rest remain at large and are thought to have
returned to TURKEY. Therefore, it is my opinion that lawyers on both sides will
enter into a prolonged legal battle regarding the legitimacy of the accusations
with primary focus on jurisdiction and power of authority. In my opinion, the
security officers behaved in conformance with TURKISH norms under the
circumstances although their actions were clearly in conflict with U.S. laws
and regulations. That is, the protestors exercised their civil rights and
liberties to freedom of speech to essentially blast President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan that is acceptable under the fundamental U.S. principal that to the extent
the protestors are peaceful and do not resort to violence or threats, they have
the right to voice their opinions including denouncing President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan directly to his face in public. However, in TURKEY this type of
protesting behaviour is not tolerated as it is categorized as violence and
threats towards the President such that the security guards trained and
educated in TURKEY behaved in accordance with TURKISH application of the laws
concerning freedom of speech which limit freedom of expression to positive
complimenting only of the President. Thus, I believe we will see a circus act
unfold in the U.S. courts to conclude that these activities represented an
inappropriate relationship. In my opinion, TURKISH lawyers will argue that the
TURKISH security guards behaved in accordance with the TURKISH definition of
inappropriate protestor actions although the protestors appear to have been in
conformance with U.S. laws by limiting their activities to verbal airing of
opinions without any violence or threats of violence. Therefore, there will
likely be a negotiated settlement similar to the Lewinsky scandal whereby the
TURKISH security guards will only admit to inappropriate relationships with
protestors due to jurisdictional conflicts in the application of reasonable
security measures under the circumstances in light of perceived threats by
TURKISH security guards who deemed the protestors to be terrorists. In my
opinion, this incident will perfectly depict the new geopolitical realities of
twisting, turning and manipulating all underlying facts and circumstances in
the favour of one’s personal, financial and political interests.
IRAQ News –
THE ROCK’s Opinions
Moving
on to IRAQ, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put
enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL
has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the
challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL
last. That is, after almost nine months of fierce fighting, the campaign to
recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for
IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic
and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the
victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed
territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside
powers that have shaped IRAQ’s since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled
Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE
majority to power. In my opinion, it will be extremely difficult to eradicate
ISIS completely from IRAQ as ISIS still controls three towns consisting of TAL
AFAR, west of MOSUL; HAWIJA, south of KIRKUK; and AL QAIM, west of ANBAR
whereby each fight will have its own set of complicated political, military and
foreign policy issues. Therefore, in my opinion, the last three strongholds in
IRAQ consisting of TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL QAIM will be the most brutal and
savage wars yet fought in IRAQ as ISIS has laid the foundation for martyrdom.
That is, ISIS has in essence sent the message to its remaining conclaves that
their only choice is to fight until death at the hands of the ALLIANCE, as the
only other option is to choose to be killed by ISIS itself. Therefore, in my
opinion now that ISIS has entered the final realm of one of the most brutal
civil wars in history, ISIS has in essence elevated its game to complete and
utter Barbarian, Neanderthal, Self-Centered,
Egotistical, Narcissistic, Masochistic, Sadistic, Idiosyncratic, Sociopathic
and Psychopathic maniacs.
In
my opinion, taking out ISIS in TAL AFAR was less complicated that I had
initially envisioned because SHIITE militias do not appear to have taken
revenge on ethnic TURKS living in the town. That is, both SUNNI Muslim and
SHIITE Muslim TURKS lived in TAL AFAR before ISIS took over while the SUNNI
Muslim TURKS who remain are considered by many to have been supporters of ISIS
but they were not directly attacked as part of the liberation of TAL AFAR.
Therefore, the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly
transferred from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred
to as TAL AFAR in a lightening fast military offensive. However, ISIS now seems
like a terrorist organization gone completely irate with ISIS leader, Abu Bakr
al-Baghdadi now organising a number of sophisticated attacks against WESTERN
targets to boost the morale of ISIS fighters after the series of devastating
defeats ISIS suffered in places such as MOSUL, RAQQA and TAL AFAR. In my
opinion, although ISIS has lost a lot of land in both IRAQ and SYRIA, this is
not the end of ISIS as a terrorist organization. Furthermore, as was seen this
week IRAQI forces continue with their offensives against ISIS as they focused
their attention on ANA, located 90 km from the SYRIAN border which represents
one of three IRAQI towns in the EUPHRATES river valley still held by ISIS. Therefore,
in my opinion after retaking ANA, IRAQI forces will target RAWA, 12 km to the
north followed by AL-QAIM that is the last IRAQI town before the border with
SYRIA in conformance with the IRAQI objective to bring the entire province of
ANBAR back under control of the IRAQI nation. Lastly, in my opinion, IRAQ will
need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ
otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the
SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end
of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of a
new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
In
my opinion, taking out ISIS in HAWIJA will be complicated because it is located
in KIRKUK that is known as a disputed territory because IRAQI KURDS believe HAWIJA
should be part of their nearby semi-autonomous region but IRAQI ARABS believe
it is part of IRAQ. That is, if the SHIITE Muslim Arabs stay in HAWIJA after
ISIS is expelled, this dilutes the KURDISH claims on the area. In addition, the
SUNNI Muslim tribal leaders in this area are worried that if the IRAQI KURDISH
military or the SHIITE Muslim militias take part in the battle against ISIS for
HAWIJA, then the SUNNI Muslim tribes will be attacked as well as they are
considered by many to be supporters of ISIS. In my opinion, taking out ISIS in AL
QAIM will be complicated because AL QAIM is located on an international border,
between IRAQ and SYRIA such that due to its strategic geographical location, AL
QAIM is by far the most secure city held by ISIS. Thus, both SYRIA and IRAQ
would have to coordinate a military campaign against ISIS in AL QAIM. However,
with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need
to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from
ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an
expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist
role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is
already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote
areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime
to bankroll future operations.
In
regards to RUSSIA, the only major power that has not called on IRAQI’s KURDS to
cancel a referendum on independence next week as RUSSIA has swiftly become the
top funder of KURDISH oil and gas deals with as much as $ 4 billion pledged in
less than a year, this is just another example of the new geopolitical
landscape whereby money talks and shit walks. In my opinion, RUSSIA has
demonstrated once again that it supports the concept of autonomy to the extent
it benefits RUSSIA’s economy albeit the reality that everybody else plays this
same game whereby pick and choose their respective battles depending on an
analysis of costs versus benefits to ignore underlying domestic issues without
any shame by choosing not to lay any blame. In my opinion, the U.S., EUROPEAN
countries, TURKEY and IRAN have all lined up to oppose the move by IRAQI’s
KURDS to hold the September 25 referendum on independence because it will take
place within the autonomous KURDISH region itself that is currently considered
to be a disputed territory such that everybody is afraid of another IRAQI civil
war between the KURDS and IRAQI forces who have managed to coordinate their
efforts thus far by focusing on a common enemy of ISIS to set the bar. In my
opinion, the IRAQI KURDS have the right to pursue their independence via a
democratic referendum albeit the reality that they seem to be moving way too
fast given that the IRAQI government claims that the referendum is in violation
of IRAQI constitutionality. In my opinion, it would have been far more
effective for the IRAQI KURDS to hold off on their referendum while negotiating
a deal with the IRAQI government to respect the IRAQI constitutionality so that
whatever the end result will be, it can be supported legally as opposed to the
upcoming September 25 referendum that will likely only serve a victory
symbolically.
SYRIA News –
THE ROCK’s Opinions
Moving
on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel
stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and
sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears
to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval
from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much
political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition
relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA
managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s
forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed
to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel
factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s
two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as
guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty
International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison
in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of
President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of
negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad's future should be off the agenda for now and the
main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections
as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to
implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace.
In
regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S.
President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK
cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S.
believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people
authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now
formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these
chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be
behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and
RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while
officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA
that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad watched as the
cease-fire agreement that establishes four de-escalation zones was violated
once again. In my opinion, although the new cease-fire deal including the four
de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the
outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt, I believe that RUSSIAN and U.S.
round-the-clock discussions anticipating that eventually the de-escalation
zones will be fully under control should be welcomed as a positive development
in fully implementing the de-escalation zones. In my opinion, it is better for
RUSSIA and the U.S. to try to work together to implement something in terms of
de-escalation zones as opposed to sitting back and insuring that both parties
achieve nothing.
In
regards to tensions
de-escalating this week as the SYRIAN Army under the control of President
Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH let ISIS withdraw
from SYRIA’s border with LEBANON to the eastern province of DEIR AL-ZOR, this
strategic shift in focus by the SYRIAN Army on ISIS is key to overall peace in
the region as the only issue that everybody in the region seem to agree upon is
that ISIS needs to be contained to an underground organization without any
significant control of land particularly along any major borders. Thus, to the
extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to
the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my
opinion, allowing ISIS to retreat to DEIR AL-ZOR made sense as DEIR AL-ZOR
province, which borders IRAQ to the east, is almost entirely under ISIS control
such that it made sense to allow ISIS to concentrate itself in territories
already under ISIS control to minimize ISIS reach around the remaining parts of
the Middle East. In my opinion, it is better to fight the ISIS devil in ISIS’s
hell on earth of DEIR AL-ZOR than to allow the ISIS devil entrance into
LEBANESE heaven to contaminate more territory like a plague turning more people
mentally insane. This mental insanity could be felt this week in LEBANON as the
Lebanese Army carried out several raids arresting 19 people linked to an ISIS
terrorist cell as LEBANESE security forces were taking extra precautions to
prevent the threat of an ISIS terrorist strike. In my opinion, the LEBANESE
army needs to be vigilant against potential strikes by ISIS in LEBANON as ISIS
did not leave LEBANON on a friendly note but rather left LEBANON on the basis
of a strategic decision to relinquish its hold on LEBANON to focus on DEIR
AL-ZOR where ISIS resources were spread way to thin such that a strategic
decision was made by ISIS in the spirit of the greatest potential to prevent
the opposition win which is in their heart and soul of DEIR AL-ZOR. In my
opinion, the realities of the ISIS organization are that ISIS will not
disappear completely off the face of the map as they still have quite a bit of
amassed wealth such that eventually some sort of ceasefire deal will need to be
negotiated with ISIS to contain them to limited restricted areas as opposed to
dispersing them across the globe and giving ISIS the opportunity to launch
covert terrorist strikes globally.
In regards
to U.S. backed fighters surrounding the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to
oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA, capturing
RAQQA would be a major achievement in the battle against ISIS and help bring an
end to ISIS’s reign of terror trying to create a so-called Caliphate. In my
opinion, ISIS has used RAQQA for over three years to stage deadly attacks on
the Middle East and further overseas such that capturing RAQQA from ISIS would
significantly reduce ISIS’s terrorist capabilities in the future. In my
opinion, the current strategy whereby U.S. airpower drops a barrage of bombs to
suppress ISIS movements behind and towards the front-lines within the city, while
KURDISH forces on the ground let loose with a barrage of small arms fire to
break up ISIS fighters at sight will be less effective moving forward as ISIS
has now adopted guerrilla warfare tactics including the intentional usage of
innocent civilians as human shields to avoid air strikes by ALLIANCE forces. In
addition, the increasing ISIS usage of suicide car bombs, snipers, drones and
tunnels to slow down SDF advances with the fight becoming a matter of life and
death for both sides has inevitably reduced the pace of advancement by the SDF
in RAQQA. Nonetheless, the SDF continues to push forward and to advance into
the center of RAQQA city where they have been thwarting car bombs and suicide
attacks to the point where the SDF and the SYRIAN Arab Army forces have now liberated
approximately 80% of the RAQQA enclave. In my opinion, with 80% of the RAQQA
territory captured from ISIS, the SDF is now entering the final stages of the
war against ISIS albeit the realities that the last 20% will be the most difficult
and painful to conquest. In my opinion, the remaining ISIS fighters in RAQQA
CITY have now been confined to the city centre in government administrative
buildings, stadiums and tunnels thanks to heavy coalition air strikes forcing
ISIS to withdraw from at least five key neighbourhoods around RAQQA CITY. However,
in my opinion the remaining ISIS fighters in RAQQA CITY will most likely die in
a street fight whereby their food and ammunitions will run out after which they
will attempt one last storm on SDF forces only to die in a blaze of glory in
ISIS minds of the mentally disturbed kind.
Summary
In summary,
I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 265” as the belief that IRAQ and
SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between
ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace as IRAQI
KURDISH referendum unfolds under new geopolitical landscape whereby money talks and shit
walks such that RUSSIA supports the concept of autonomy to the extent it
benefits RUSSIA’s economy albeit the reality that everybody else plays this
same game whereby pick and choose their respective battles depending on an
analysis of costs versus benefits to ignore underlying domestic issues without
any shame by choosing not to lay any blame.
